Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!

[The Fonz]

*THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT*

Setup speculation is baaaaaaaaaaaad, and can lead to players unwittingly revealing their roles, which helps scum to direct their nightkills with greater accuracy. Please stop. All of you.

[liamcool]

I think it's a bit of both, maybe he plays a different style at other sites. Also, he might be scum trying hard to be a townie, or townie trying to affirm his allignment with everyone else. I'm personally leaning towards the latter right now, but not by a long shot (say, 45% for A and 55% for B)

Liamcool is starting with the aussumtion that the chances that any one person is a mafia is 50/50. This is incorrect. If there are 2 mafia the odds are only 1 in 8(12.5%). If there are 3 mafia the odds are 1 in 6(16.6%). If there are 4 mafia the odds are 1 in 4.5(22.2%). In other words well below 50%. Like The Fonz says, if Liamcool REALLY thinks there is 45% probability that Egruntz is mafia he should vote for him. However, I don't think that is what Liamcool was really trying to say.

Yah, I'm accounting for evidence against him so far, et cetera, et cetera. I don't like voting unless I'm reasonably sure so I haven't voted yet.

[egruntz]

FOS: Xylthixlm

No, not because he voted for me, but because he seems he wants to get the day done with, and skip right onto night. It's best to spend your time and gather the proper information before casting a vote, otherwise you could end up screwing your own team greatly. Why rush things when we've limited time, anyway? Why create a bandwagon just for the hell of it?

Not a scummy move, but something that grabbed my attention.

[OOC: Sorry for not posting in the last couple of days or so. This Christmas sure kept me busy! I've received a Nintendo Wii, along with Super Mario Galaxy, and some other accessories. That'll definitely keep me busy for a while! I'll still be keeping an eye out in this mafia, though; so no worries!]

[Xylthixlm]

... and how exactly will we get useful information without a bandwagon?

[Xylthixlm]

Some people are posting but not giving any opinions.

Dark Ermac, Sangy: who do you think is scummiest so far? who do you think is least scummiest?

[curiouskarmadog]

vote Mills

, on gut for now.

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

I did a bit of number crunching to see if we could identify our lurkers.
Counting the numer of each players posts, I got these results:\
Bookitty - 11
DiscipleSlayer - 7
Liamcool - 12
Phate - 1
Mills - 17
DarkErmac - 5
Mariuccifamily - 0
TheDragonPrincess - 3
Panzersager - 5
The Fonz - 8
Patch15 - 0
Sensfan - 1
Sangy - 4
CuriousKarmaDog - 4
OhGodMyLife - 8
Egruntz - 8
Xylthixlm - 20
Snaps The Pirate - 9

As you can see, we have a large variation on the amount of posts per player. Those with the lower numbers are hurting the town. When innocents lurk, it becomes easier for mafia to lurk. When EVERYONE is active, the mafia is forced to be active posters as well in order to remain inconspicuos. We want the mafia to post. The more they post the more pressure is on them to come up with reasonable-sounding arguments that, ultimatly, are flawed. This gives the town a better chance of finding them.
I know some of the lower posters will respond "I don't post if I have nothing new to say", but even if you repeat your previous arguments, or even just post fluff, we will be better off than you not posting at all.
Mafiascum is a "social" game. Everyone needs to be active, or it just doesn't work.

Looking at our lowest posters:
Phate and Sensfan both have one post each, but said they were going to be busy until after New Years. I expect their activity to pick up after that.
MariucciFamily and Patch15 both have no posts, and will probably be replaced. Perhaps they also are busy, and will join us after the holidays.



As of yet, my highest suspicion is still DiscipleSlayer. His obvious bandwagon votes and lack of contribution to the discussion really makes him seem like a mafia, and I can see no reason for an innocent to use such obvious mafia tells. I beleive he is a mafia hiding in plain sight.

Vote : DiscipleSlayer

[Mills]

The Fourth Official Flavorless Votecount:

Snaps the pirate - 3

(Thedragonsprincess, liamcool)

The Fonz - 3

(panzerjager, Disciple Slayer)

egruntz - 1

(Xylthixlm)

Bookitty - 1

(the fonz)

Disciple Slayer - 1

(Mills)

Mills - 1

(OhGodMyLife)

liamcool - 0

panzerjager - 0

Thedragonsprincess - 0

OhGodMyLife - 0

MariucciFamily - 0

Sangy - 0

Xylthixlm - 0

curiouskarmadog - 0

Phate - 0

SensFan - 0

Dark Ermac - 0

patch15 - 0

Nobody - 9

(egruntz, Bookitty, MariucciFamily, Sangy, curiouskarmadog, Phate, SensFan, Dark Ermac, patch15)

With 18 alive, it will take 10 to lynch.

---

The votecounts will from now on be done in this fashion to give the players a more complete sense of the game as well as make my job much easier. No, you can not lynch "Nobody".

I was just re-reading and this was the latest votecount provided a few pages back. Is this incorrectly tallied? Both The Fonz and SnapsThePirate have 3 votes listed to their name but only 2 people listed as voting for them.

[Mills]

Some people are posting but not giving any opinions.

Quoted for truth. There are so many players that are non-entities right now. One joke-vote and three non-content posts do not make you a contributor to this game.

I posted what I thought about DS about 1-2 pages ago (with a proper explanation) and it hasn't even receive a single comment. There are definitely all sorts of things for these people to comment on.



Also, I have made an

unofficial

votecount (assuming that is allowed!):

Snaps the pirate (2): Dragonprincess, liamcool

The Fonz (2): Sangy, Panzerjager

Mills (2): OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog

Disciple Slayer (2): Mills, Snaps_the_Pirate

Bookitty (2): The Fonz, Disciple Slayer

egruntz (1): Xylthixlm

[Dark Ermac]

[OOC: Sorry for not posting in the last couple of days or so. This Christmas sure kept me busy! I've received a Nintendo Wii, along with Super Mario Galaxy, and some other accessories. That'll definitely keep me busy for a while! I'll still be keeping an eye out in this mafia, though; so no worries!]

You got the same thing I did!

Anyway, the Fonz and DS seem to be the most suspicious, but I'll go check over the previous few pages in a while.

[Elias_the_thief]

The Fifth Official Flavorless Votecount:

Snaps the pirate - 2

(Thedragonsprincess, liamcool)

The Fonz - 2

(panzerjager, sangy)

Bookitty - 2

(the fonz, Disciple Slayer)

Disciple Slayer - 2

(Mills, Snaps the pirate)

Mills - 2

(OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog)

egruntz - 1

(Xylthixlm)

liamcool - 0

panzerjager - 0

Thedragonsprincess - 0

OhGodMyLife - 0

MariucciFamily - 0

Sangy - 0

Xylthixlm - 0

curiouskarmadog - 0

Phate - 0

SensFan - 0

Dark Ermac - 0

patch15 - 0

Nobody - 7

(egruntz, Bookitty, MariucciFamily, Phate, SensFan, Dark Ermac, patch15)

With 18 alive, it will take 10 to lynch.

---

Thanks for the correction, if you see any further problems be sure to notify me. Also, feel free to request a votecount at any time.

Reminder: Deadline for today will be

January 20th, at 10 PM

approximately three weeks from today.

[Bookitty]

I don't understand the reasoning for the votes on The Fonz. He and I had what I view as an honest disagreement about how to deal with someone suggesting no-lynch on day one. I didn't get any scummy vibes from him in his arguments against me, and his vote for me was no more threatening than my vote on egruntz.

I don't have any certainty as to whether egruntz's stance on no-lynch was a true newb-tell, or a newb-scum tell, and some other things he's done seem fairly pro-town to me. I'm waiting to see more from him before I draw any conclusions in that regard.

I dislike the meta-game confrontation between Mills and Disciple Slayer. If I had to place a vote right now, I would put it on one of them. Carrying over hostility from one game to another isn't an acceptable tactic. Mills initiated that subject, but Disciple Slayer joined in with a certain fervor (possible scum distancing, I don't rule that out) and additionally voted The Fonz with reasons to come later, then shifted his vote to me with an argument that while reasonable on the surface, makes no sense given the timing of his previous vote on The Fonz. I'm not certain which I find more vote-worthy, but as I said, if I placed a vote right now, it would be on one of these two.

For everyone else, I either have a fairly pro-town read or not enough information to derive any opinion. I'm not going to list who I think is most pro-town, because in my view that's more useful to scum than to the town, but I am hoping that after the holidays we'll get a lot more input from people who haven't weighed in on the debate yet.

[Xylthixlm]

I did a quick reread, and I'm not happy with how Bookitty jumped on egruntz for mentioning the term "No Lynch". egruntz wasn't really pushing for one, he just mentioned it. It seems like the sort of thing scum would do on day one: push for a mislynch on someone for nothing at all, really. So therefore,

UNVOTE

VOTE: BOOKITTY

I think you mistyped "Yet more bandwagoning".

unvote; vote Disciple Slayer

[egruntz]

I don't have any certainty as to whether egruntz's stance on no-lynch was a true newb-tell, or a newb-scum tell, and some other things he's done seem fairly pro-town to me. I'm waiting to see more from him before I draw any conclusions in that regard.

Why is it, that just because I think differently than you, that I'm automatically either a newbie or scum?

Really

.

[Bookitty]

Why is it, that just because I think differently than you, that I'm automatically either a newbie or scum?

Really

.

Well, the charitable interpretation of pushing for no-lynch is that you are new to the site and thus don't see the disadvantage of giving the scum a free nightkill without any fear of being lynched. Additionally if we all agreed to a no-lynch on day one, no productive discussion could result from bandwagons, watching who was on the lynch, who pushed against it, etc. I think this has been explained to you by more capable and experienced players than me.

The uncharitable explanation is that scum would benefit from a no-lynch day one. They would not run the risk of being lynched, nor have to defend their actions at a later date regarding their behaviour on the day one lynch, they would not have to make arguments that later events would prove false... in general, they'd get a nightkill for free, and so it would be a beneficial move for scum if they could persuade town to a no-lynch. That's why pushing for a no-lynch is widely regarded as a scumtell except in very specific (and not currently applicable) circumstances.

So, that's why, egruntz.

[egruntz]

Why is it, that just because I think differently than you, that I'm automatically either a newbie or scum?

Really

.

Well, the charitable interpretation of pushing for no-lynch is that you are new to the site and thus don't see the disadvantage of giving the scum a free nightkill without any fear of being lynched. Additionally if we all agreed to a no-lynch on day one, no productive discussion could result from bandwagons, watching who was on the lynch, who pushed against it, etc. I think this has been explained to you by more capable and experienced players than me.

The uncharitable explanation is that scum would benefit from a no-lynch day one. They would not run the risk of being lynched, nor have to defend their actions at a later date regarding their behaviour on the day one lynch, they would not have to make arguments that later events would prove false... in general, they'd get a nightkill for free, and so it would be a beneficial move for scum if they could persuade town to a no-lynch. That's why pushing for a no-lynch is widely regarded as a scumtell except in very specific (and not currently applicable) circumstances.

So, that's why, egruntz.

... OR, it could just be a specific's playstyle. We aren't getting any information out of day one so far, besides "everyone bandwagon ____, he's scum for not being active!" and so and so.

As I mentioned before, it would be best to not lynch at all if we all can't come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia. And I don't really feel like repeating myself beyond that.

[egruntz]

>.< "specific's"? Come on now, egruntz.

[Mills]

I dislike the meta-game confrontation between Mills and Disciple Slayer. If I had to place a vote right now, I would put it on one of them. Carrying over hostility from one game to another isn't an acceptable tactic. Mills initiated that subject, but Disciple Slayer joined in with a certain fervor (possible scum distancing, I don't rule that out) and additionally voted The Fonz with reasons to come later, then shifted his vote to me with an argument that while reasonable on the surface, makes no sense given the timing of his previous vote on The Fonz. I'm not certain which I find more vote-worthy, but as I said, if I placed a vote right now, it would be on one of these two.

Reading this, I can’t help but correct you despite the fact that you will probably just view it as me attacking you and decide to vote for me but whatever – if you write something that is wrong, I will always step in to correct you.

I know some players are 100%

against

ever using 'previous games' as a reason for voting but, as I have already stated, I personally believe that in

some

rare circumstances it is an acceptable reason to place a vote (although it will not be very often that you will hear me suggest voting for someone for such a reason). I have already discussed what those circumstances are so I will not rehash them.

You claim that “Carrying over hostility from one game to another isn't an acceptable tactic.” I agree and would

never

do such a thing. It would be childish, immature and stupid. There is no hostility between DS and myself from other games because I have never even played in another game on this site (except for one other game that I am in right now and DS is not in). For this reason, I consider my initial vote to be completely

objective

and not based on any ill-will towards DS.

Since my vote was placed, however, DS has given me several reasons to vote for him that pertain

specifically to this game

which I have outlined in a previous post and will not be rehashing. I'd appreciate if you didn't continue to ignore them and paint the whole argument as "some irrelevant meta-game issue" because you are misrepresenting the situation (whether intentionally or not).

[The Fonz]

I don't have any certainty as to whether egruntz's stance on no-lynch was a true newb-tell, or a newb-scum tell, and some other things he's done seem fairly pro-town to me. I'm waiting to see more from him before I draw any conclusions in that regard.

Why is it, that just because I think differently than you, that I'm automatically either a newbie or scum?

Really

.

Because that day one no-lynch is bad for town and benefits scum is something that is basically universally accepted, taught in newbie games, and so it's assumed that anyone advocating it cannot both be pro-town and know what they're doing. I explained it earlier.

[Patch15]

Right sorry everyone I'm back from my Nans now, (went there for Christmas). Looks like I got a lot of catching up to do

[Bookitty]

... OR, it could just be a specific's playstyle. We aren't getting any information out of day one so far, besides "everyone bandwagon ____, he's scum for not being active!" and so and so.

As I mentioned before, it would be best to not lynch at all if we all can't come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia. And I don't really feel like repeating myself beyond that.

Do you really feel that we aren't getting any information out of day one so far? Is it your experience that town can ever come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia before that person is dead?

[egruntz]

... OR, it could just be a specific's playstyle. We aren't getting any information out of day one so far, besides "everyone bandwagon ____, he's scum for not being active!" and so and so.

As I mentioned before, it would be best to not lynch at all if we all can't come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia. And I don't really feel like repeating myself beyond that.

Do you really feel that we aren't getting any information out of day one so far? Is it your experience that town can ever come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia before that person is dead?

No. I'm saying that Day 1 doesn't give you

enough

evidence that a certain person is Mafia. In all of the previous games I've played, the players ended up lynching one of their own on the first day, because they just

knew

that person was mafia.

In every game I suggest for a no lynch, I get flamed and pointed at; and I'm perfectly fine with that. I'll continue to "push" for no lynch, if we don't get hard evidence against someone.

For right

now

, voting for no lynch is a stupid idea, since we still have a while before the first day is forced to end. But if we all can't agree on a definite mafia by that time, we'd best be off by not lynching at all, instead of taking our chances when it's, what, 3/18 against us?

[Xylthixlm]

egruntz, do you think we should ever lynch without certain information that someone is mafia? If so, when? If not, how do you expect to win?

[egruntz]

egruntz, do you think we should ever lynch without certain information that someone is mafia? If so, when? If not, how do you expect to win?

Of course we won't have a 100% positive conclusion that someone is mafia, all I'm saying is that you want to be as sure as possible before lynching. And if you can't be all-too sure, then don't lynch at all.

"He MIGHT be mafia... but we might as well vote for him anyway. What have we to lose?"... no.

[Xylthixlm]

Chances of town winning in an 18 player game with 3 mafia and no power roles, assuming all lynches are totally random: 20%

Chances of town winning in an 18 player game with 3 mafia and no power roles, assuming nobody is lynched: 0%