Mini 539: Game over

[Xtoxm]

Okay, Ythill. First, the claim is too early. It almost looks like you were planning it all along and just couldn’t keep from pulling the trigger any longer. Three votes? I don’t consider it a certain scum tell, but it seems either the result of panic or pre-planning.

He has already proved that he's had this planned since page 1

[Justin Playfair]

XtoXm, bread crumbing his role, if that was what he did, doesn't prove he planned this precise stratagem on page one. It just proves he bread crumbed, although that doesn't mean it is his true role. Could it have been in preparation for exactly what he's doing here? Yes. Does it follow that it would have to be? No.

[Incognito]

(4) I am not lynched #3. Scum have excellent strategy, they don’t NK at all. My claim seems false and I am pretty much guaranteed to be lynched D2. But, again, I don’t think my death is the worst thing that could happen to town. Whether D1 or D2, it will reveal my alignment and role which will uncork a mountain of data on other players. Not to mention that this option costs scum a NK.

This outcome could also happen if I am targeted by scum but doc protected. Because it could be the most favorable to scum of the four, I am going to ask that (if we have a doc) I not be protected from N1 NK whether you believe me or not; there are far better targets for protection anyway.

Actually, Justin, you've already mentioned some information about the fourth scenario that I agree with but you're also missing something else. Ythill considers the fourth scenario to be "excellent strategy" because he says the scum will not NK at all and make his claim seem false. Ythill has already made it quite clear that he intends to target me for his Vig-kill, and he's also made it even more clear that

he considers me scum

. At the start of Day 2, the mod will reveal all of the deaths that happened during the night and the alignment of the killed person. Suppose Ythill is telling the truth and he is the One-Shot Vigilante who decides to kill me, and the scum follow his "excellent strategy" and decide to no-kill on Night 1: Imagine how the next day would read if you suppose I'm scum. The mod would reveal my alignment (in this case we're supposing I'm scum), mention that I was killed, and no other death would occur. Ythill's role would be confirmed since it would be pretty evident that my death would have been a result of his Vigilantism.

In order for Ythill's fourth scenario to be considered "excellent strategy" as he called it, one would absolutely HAVE to assume that I'm a townie. Why? Because think about how the next day would read in that case: Incognito (Townie) was killed during Night 1. No other kill would be revealed during the night because Ythill mentioned it would be "excellent strategy" for the scum to not kill anyone. It would then and ONLY THEN be unclear if the town should believe Ythill's claim because you all would be questioning if my death really was a result of Ythill's "One-Shot Vigilantism" and not the result of a Mafia kill. It would also be unclear if the doctor protected the right person or anything along those lines. Justin, I think you are correct in stating that it almost seems as though Ythill is "laying down the carpet" for his day 2 defense, and I think Ythill has just slipped up.

My vote will remain on Ythill.

[Ythill]

@ Incog: Even though your response to my claim reads scummy, you’re not dead yet. Please do not claim. Instead, look at my suspicions of you from the perspective of me being town and calmly explain to me why I am mistaken. My goal is to NK scum, not you personally. It’s just that I think you’re scum. Change my mind instead of trying to discredit me.

First, the claim is too early. It almost looks like you were planning it all along and just couldn’t keep from pulling the trigger any longer. Three votes? I don’t consider it a certain scum tell, but it seems either the result of panic or pre-planning.

You are correct. I was planning it all along. The votes had nothing to do with it. Initially, I was going to try to wait until D2 for better information, then pull the trigger. However, I got lucky in catching Incog (and probably a little impatient too). I wanted to claim as punctuation when the context was good for revealing scum and I don’t believe there’s going to be a better time. As for the panic suggestion, ask yourself if my latest defenses sound any more panicked than those posted earlier.

You’re not a vig. You’re a serial killer.

This is a possibility… I wouldn’t even call it far-fetched (from a perspective other than mine). I really can’t post much of a defense here either, except to remind you that the scum don’t know if I’m a vig or SK. I really doubt I’ll live through N1. If I do, you’ll just have to deduce whether or not I’m an SK from my posts and, if there’s doubt, just be sure to lynch me before LYLO.

Whatever you are, why would scum decide that making you the most likely (but not assured) day two lynch would be worth not taking their very certain night one kill?

My assumption here could be a n00b mistake, but… Say the day ends with Incog alive and my vote on him and then he is the only one killed. Is there anything I would be able to say to save myself from the noose? It would be very plain to everyone that I am scum. Not to disagree with you, but I would call that a certain lynch. So scum isn’t losing their kill, they are simply waiting to get it during the day, forcing town to lose a lynch. No real gain there, but no loss either.

The real gains come in other ways. The scenario would be a perfect set-up for role-fishing the doc, which is another reason I asked upfront for no protection. The day-long dynamic where I am certain scum would give ample opportunity for the real scum to gain trust. Imagine the sly mobster that defended me until the end of D2 then turned suspicion back on the townies who lynched me; or the “poor sot” who railroaded me and, when I come up vig, posts what seems like honest surprise and self doubt. With a night to talk about it, they could even get some convincing distancing out of the play. Scum would have ample ammo to attack anyone I’ve supported or defended, or anyone who has done the same to me. Also, scum take a negligible risk (very unlikely that they will lose a kill) to buy more time for hunting power roles. D2 is far better for that, isn’t it?

Note that all of the above

especially

benefits scum if I am wrong about whomever I kill. It would score them an extra body and make my D2 lynch even more certain. Watch for changes in reactions if my listed vote changes before nightfall. Also note that the above benefits them less now that it is out in the open.

But rest assured, if the scum “have an excellent strategy” and don’t kill night one, I will not be swayed an inch with any argument about how those brilliant scum put you in the hot seat.

I wouldn’t expect you to be. What I would expect is for you to be diligently guarding against claim-fishing and pushing for the quick lynch on me to verify my role. Hell, if only my target dies tonight and I’m alive in the morning, I’ll vote myself.

Ythill could be wrong and still be the vig.

Absolutely. I am certain that Incog is scum but we all know how reliable one townie’s certainty is. For this reason, I am open to continue the hunt for as long as it takes. Personally, I think we need to examine Incog more closely, put DS in the hot seat for awhile, work to get better reads on Xtoxm and charter, and double-check Ho1den. By then, we should have enough content from our replacements to look seriously at them. Ideally we will kill two scum here. It is very important that we kill at least one. I might have rushed this strategy, but I am

not

taking my kill lightly.

[Ythill]

Cross-posted a bit...

it would be pretty evident that my death would have been a result of his Vigilantism.

Or of elaborate bussing. Barring that, you make a good point that I hadn't considered. In hindsight, #4 is not "excellent strategy" unless I am wrong about you. None of that changes my read on you or the fact that my claim is confirmable.

Also, I forgot my vote confirm thingy in the last post.

Ythill's vig targets: Incog (vote), Shteven (FoS).

[Incognito]

Cross-posted a bit...

it would be pretty evident that my death would have been a result of his Vigilantism.

Or of elaborate bussing. Barring that, you make a good point that I hadn't considered. In hindsight, #4 is not "excellent strategy" unless I am wrong about you. None of that changes my read on you or the fact that my claim is confirmable.

Also, I forgot my vote confirm thingy in the last post.

Ythill's vig targets: Incog (vote), Shteven (FoS).

ROFL! So if we assume I'm scum, the scum would kill me through this elaborate bussing to help confirm that you are in fact the one-shot vigilante?

Some people should learn when to wave the white flag.

[Justin Playfair]

Incognito,

Two things, though I'm not sure the first is still relevant after Ythill's post 229. And Ythill, I'm somewhat flummoxed by what you've posted there.

The first would be that Ythill's fourth strategy ONLY works if his eventual victim is town. Otherwise it doesn't work at all. I took that as a given, but after Ythill's response I guess it wasn't to him, which is really very strange. I mean, if the eventual victim is scum then scum have no reason at all for not killing someone. Conversely, if the victim is scum Ythill comes up blameless on a no-kill by mafia regardless.

Ythill, did you really only realize that when Incognito brought it up, as seems to be indicated in post 229? Because that really seems to indicate that you know he's innocent, or if Incognito is not your eventual target that you suspect you'll be killing town. I mean, you really hadn't considered that?

Incognito,

The second thing. I think Ythill in post 229 is suggesting that the elaborate bussing would be his killing of you. I looked all over the Wiki to see if mafia could night kill their team mates, but I couldn't find the answer.

[Incognito]

Incognito,

Two things, though I'm not sure the first is still relevant after Ythill's post 229. And Ythill, I'm somewhat flummoxed by what you've posted there.

The first would be that Ythill's fourth strategy ONLY works if his eventual victim is town. Otherwise it doesn't work at all. I took that as a given, but after Ythill's response I guess it wasn't to him, which is really very strange. I mean, if the eventual victim is scum then scum have no reason at all for not killing someone. Conversely, if the victim is scum Ythill comes up blameless on a no-kill by mafia regardless.

Justin, you are absolutely correct. Ythill's 4th strategy ONLY works if the victim is Town. See the problem that Ythill ran into is he's part of that informed minority that we call the mafia. He got a little ahead of himself suggesting that the mafia's "excellent strategy" would be to no kill because he knows as well as I do that I am an innocent and if I were killed, I would show up as an innocent. So essentially, he knows what the results of tomorrow's night kill would be if his fourth strategy were enacted, and basically he was, as you said, "laying down the carpet" for his Day 2 defense that he knew he would have to make once I appeared as Town. That's what sometimes happens to a player when he/she knows a little TOO much information.

And what a beautiful strategy it would have been too. I mean, he basically outlined everything the way it would have happened if we fell into his trap to believe he's really the Vigilante. He would have used his one-shot during Night 1 (because conveniently he claims he's a night-kill one-shot Vig). He would have defended himself saying stuff like "Wow, those members of the mafia sure were smart to use "excellent strategy number 4"". Then he would have been this "Vanilla Townie" from then on, unable to ever shoot another person again. In reality he would be this member of the Mafia hiding among us guiding the town to even more mislynches. It's really quite nice, isn't it?

Incognito,

The second thing. I think Ythill in post 229 is suggesting that the elaborate bussing would be his killing of you. I looked all over the Wiki to see if mafia could night kill their team mates, but I couldn't find the answer.

There are two things Ythill said with absolute certainty in Post 218.

1) He is the One-Shot Night-Kill Vigilante.

2) I am scum.

His "elaborate bussing" he was referring to was where he realized "Oh hey wait a minute... if I, Ythill, am lying to the town and claiming with absolute certainty that Incognito is scum, then shit, Incognito is right. I forgot that I also have to pretend that Incognito also shows up as scum at the beginning of Day 2, and I have to make the town realize that for some reason, the mafia elaborately bussed Incognito by night-killing him to help me out with my role of being the One-Shot Night-Killing Vigilante!" Which of course makes no sense at all. Justin, he's backtracking. It's plain and simple. Ythill is scum.

[Xtoxm]

If he is scum I think it's a bit of a stupid plan cos if you die night one and come up town i'd just be pushing for Ythill's lynch until he's lynched.

Ythill - did you think about this (if you are town). What if the doc think Incog is town. He protects him. Mafia kill you. Role wasted.

[kuribo]

XtoXm,

Ythill could be wrong and still be the vig. Him killing town would not prove him scum. Just wrong. If two bodies hit the ground tonight, and one is the person Ythill said he was going to kill, whatever their alignment, Ythill is on more solid, if not absolutely solid, ground.

This opens up all sorts of WIFOM though... If Ythill is mafia, he can still kill his selected target and claim that the doc protected him (protected Ythill, that is, to prevent the mafia from killing him), (if there is a doc or even better if there isn't). Or he could kill someone else entirely as the mafia kill and claim that the doc protected his vig kill.

So you see, there's no solid ground at all.

[kuribo]

And also, to simplify what Justin is saying---

Even if Ythill IS the vig, the vig has no special knowledge of who's mafia. He could just as easily off a townie as any of us could lynch one.

[Xtoxm]

Good points, Kuribo. I'm not sure what we should do anymore.

[Disciple Slayer]

I am perplexed. I have no idea what to do any more. Mass RC, anyone?

[Xtoxm]

I am perplexed. I have no idea what to do any more. Mass RC, anyone?

On day 1?

[Incognito]

I am perplexed. I have no idea what to do any more. Mass RC, anyone?

Heh. Spoken like Ythill's scum buddy.

Seriously, are you guys even reading what just happened? Ythill is scum.

Read Post 218's "excellent strategy".

Read Justin Playfair's response: Post 221 and read my response: Post 227.

Read Ythill's backtracking: Post 229 and my response to his backtracking: Post 230

Justin Playfair's points: Post 231

My response as well: Post 232

This really shouldn't be that difficult.

Confirm vote: Ythill

[Disciple Slayer]

Well, what we could do is this: have the doc randomly protect you or Shteven, while the cop (if any) can investigate Ythill tonight. I haven't been getting any pings on my scumdar from Ythill, although his vig claim and what happened afterwards completely threw me off my game. I don't really know what to do at this point.

[Ythill]

Ythill, did you really only realize that when Incognito brought it up, as seems to be indicated in post 229? Because that really seems to indicate that you know he's innocent, or if Incognito is not your eventual target that you suspect you'll be killing town. I mean, you really hadn't considered that?

I didn't think it through. When typing my possible outcomes, it occured to me that mafia could screw me by not killing. I didn't consider my target's alignment in that situation at all. Very bad oversight on my part, I know.

First point: does the slip up Incog hypothesises seem like a realistic mistake? Meaning, if I am forward-thinking enough to lay out this elaborate "carpet," does it follow that I am short-sighted enough to miss such an obvious hole in the plan? Second point: the "doc protected" plan seems much more viable if I am scum, so what's the point of me asking the doc not to protect me? In Incog's theory, wouldn't that be entirely counter-productive? As scum, I should have asked for doc protection.

Final point. Look at Incog's actions here and ask yourself why he selected the course he did. He has several options. He could go back and try a real defense against my PBPA, clearing himself enough to put Shteven back in my sights. He could try to find "the real scum" and direct my kill towards them. Or he can look for a mistake in my post and continue to argue desperately to lynch me. Which of these are the most realistic approaches for town? For scum?

It is entirely possible (if not probable) that my claim is true. It is clear that, if I am scum, I will be dead by D2. The obvious move here for any townie is to steer clear of a D1 lynch on me, waiting for my confirmation and lynching me D2 if it does not come. In the case of a townie who is my declared target, the obvious move is to stall the lynch, try and clear himself, and work hard to determine if my #2 suspect is actually scummy.

Insead, Incog analyzes my post and finds a mistake that he immediately (and repeatedly) insists leads to no other conclusion except Ythill=scum + Incog=town even though there is at least one other explanation. He pushes this ruthlessly (look at his recent post count compared to a couple days ago) to try and get town to hang me. Why the rush?

What does he gain as town by chosing this option? As scum? What does he have to lose as town? As scum? Ask yourself the same questions about most of his posts: his hint that he has a power-role, his request for counter claims, his fence-riding habits, his "case" against apyadg, his shifty defense to my PBPA, etc, etc, etc. I am very comfortable letting you all form your own answers to these questions.

Also, take a look at Justin. I think he's pretty clearly a vanilla townie and I have been his top suspect since very early in the game. Yet he is giving my claim the benefit of the doubt. Why? Why wouldn't Incog do the same?

Ythill - did you think about this (if you are town). What if the doc think Incog is town. He protects him. Mafia kill you. Role wasted.

I believe it would be more important to the doc to clear this situation up and gain information from it than it would be to protect my target. If doc protects my target, we are at D2 with no new information, my claim is uncomfirmed and I am more likely to be lynched, and there is a slim posibility that the doc could reveal himself in the process. IMO, only a very inexperienced doc would protect my target. There's more of a risk that I could be targeted by a mafia role-blocker, but it's a slim risk I'm willing to take.

I'm not sure what we should do anymore.

I think it's quite clear actually. If you believe that Incog is town

and

I am scum,

and

are willing to bet my N1K on that (which isn't a huge risk), then lynch me right now. If you think Incog is scum

or

I am town

or

would rather not risk losing the N1K, consider me town for the rest of the day and lets get on with the hunt. As for which of these two things to do, we should take a vote. Oh wait, we already are...

No hard feelings if you lynch me here. Just let me have my last words after L-2 and use all of the information gained by my death to win the game for town. And I insist that I am a

much

better lynch than SSK. Killing him reveals nothing except

his

alignment.

Ythill's vig targets: Incog (vote), Shteven (FoS).

[Ythill]

No matter what's actually going on here you have to admit, the game just got more fun.

Well, what we could do is this: have the doc randomly protect you or Shteven, while the cop (if any) can investigate Ythill tonight.

Which would require the cop to claim D2 as well as revealing whether or not we have a doc. Almost as scummy as asking for a mass-claim D1. Congratulations on changing my mind a bit. I'm knocking Shteven back to #3 and

FoS: Disciple Slayer

.

Ythill's vig targets: Incog (vote), DS (FoS).

[Xtoxm]

I just read what Ythill said...I am going to go with assuming he is town for the rest of they day. I do not think you are a better lynch than SSK, cos what happens at night could be quite revealing.

DS has also now raised my suspicions with those comments.

Top suspects
#1 SSK
#2 DS

I would participate in a lynch for those 2, at this point.

[Shteven]

First off, in response to recent developments: wow. Game's afoot now. That said I had been busy the past two days so I have some catch up comments to make.

Interesting read Kuribo, although it does get a bit more sparse towards the end. I may take a closer look at Charter, until now I haven't seen anything obvious and didn't really fine-comb him. I can certainly agree with you that DS has been getting a free pass.

With regards to Incognito's defense, I really liked some of his responses:

OMG another hilarious statement! Now you mention that charter has "taken my bait". Hmmm... Wasn't charter's vote on Apyadg the reason you labeled him as definitive town in your Post 98? It's really funny how you're becoming tangled in your own lies.

It's very true that it's hard for you to claim Incognito-scum tried charter into making a vote for nefarious purposes and then also give charter-town brownie points for it, saying that:

Your one serious vote was self-motivated and reasonable.

There's also the post 88 controversy: where does he say a little or a bit odd? It's perfectly fine to paraphrase people's posts, but not if you use quotation marks. And I can't find him saying anything similar, there's no mention of strange or weird either.

In short, I had been lowering suspicions on Ythill (I keep trying to type out Ythrill by the way, please change your name to suit me) since he's no longer tunneling as I thought, but now it seems like he's replacing it with twisting other people's posts oddly.

I hate when people TELL you a vote is just for pressure… And good contribution by Incognito… The dreaded "pressure" is back. How I loathe that… THANK YOU INCOGNITO… Incognito voices one of my own thoughts...

The most cheerleading yet in one post. Considering the play that I’m about to make, I think you had better explain this. That said, I didn’t get much of a scummy vibe from your post. You made some questionable arguments but, in your defense, they were justifications of first impressions based on a very quick read.

I feel that cheerleading is like being defensive. Over defensiveness is bad, but defending is a normal action in a game of mafia. So is telling other people you like/agree with their points. If all the player is doing is posting time again that he likes player A, B and C's posts, then yeah, tell him to provide some comments of his own. But people like to agree with/encourage others, and especially when it comes vote time, it's even required.

That's all for catch-up. Honestly, it seems so out of place now.

I agree that Ythill claimed a bit too soon. I believe he had 3 votes? L-4 is too early to claim anything, especially power roles. I suppose a one-shot isn't too bad of a power role to out since you can fully use your power on the assumption you aren't lynched today, but that is an assumption. You're already planning for the night and we still have a very major decision to make; the day 1 lynch. I understand why you're anxious, sitting on a plan you're proud of is a hard thing. You want to reveal and see it work masterfully sooner rather than later. No offense intended, but I think you're significantly overlooking the townie success rate problem. Any non-information town role (ie, you don't have a cop result) has a very hard time being always right. There's a very high chance you'll just end up killing a townie. Especially on day 1/night 1 - which makes your claim far too soon.

But the biggest problem is the flaw in outcome #4 which has already been mentioned: If the mafia doesn't kill to try to make your claim look false, the only way that it looks false is if you hit town. This is huge. You honestly didn't realize that killing mafia would confirm you on day 2?

It's not really central to the argument, but Justin is right that it would be horrible play for the mafia to give up an certain (barring a doctor existing and protecting correctly) night kill try to cast doubt. Doubt isn't as powerful as a corpse.

I also find it odd that you're listing your two targets every post. Really hammering it in? It's not the repeating that I have an issue with, it's that you are making it so definite. Night kills are never certain until they're submitted to the mod, and broadcasting your choice makes it easier for other forces to counteract you. Let's assume Ythill is town. What if a doctor believes Incognito over you and protects him from your vig? Unlikely, but you're increasing the chances. More likely, you're telling the mafia who they don't have to kill, so they can ensure that they get two night kills tonight. This can be extended to various degrees of WIFOM; you could simply be actively lying and hoping to outsmart the mafia during the night phase. Just remember that everything you say is being read by town and mafia alike; and if you want to spread information to the town, you spread information to the mafia. And if you want to lie to the mafia, you lie to the town. This is why I think you're revealing far too much. Kind of ironic, considering our earlier arguments over town roles revealing information. I never meant to include power roles in that though (those are fine to hide, including night actions of those power roles).

On a largely unrelated note, I'm going to throw out a quick

FOS: Disciple Slayer

because you've been laying low and not giving us much to go on.

And I think you're capable of doing more.

But despite some real shaking up going on, I'm alright with leaving my vote on Ythill.

[Shteven]

*mutter* I had been getting error pages about the site exceeding CPU. I suppose it's not that important, but for the record I FOS'ed DS before I saw the other two do it also. Call it a matter of pride

[Xtoxm]

*mutter* I had been getting error pages about the site exceeding CPU. I suppose it's not that important, but for the record I FOS'ed DS before I saw the other two do it also. Call it a matter of pride

I get that error from time to time

[Ythill]

With regards to Incognito's defense, I really liked some of his responses:

OMG another hilarious statement! Now you mention that charter has "taken my bait". Hmmm... Wasn't charter's vote on Apyadg the reason you labeled him as definitive town in your Post 98? It's really funny how you're becoming tangled in your own lies.

In which he does not defend himself from my suggestion (that he is switching votes based on other people's reactions to his fence-sitting trap), but rather picks out an apparent contradiction in my play, suggesting that it is scummy for me to change my mind about somethig after rereading. Note that I mentioned I had changed my mind about charter in the same post Incog is arguing with.

He also suggests that it’s scummy to not link my references even though I

am

posting references which can be easily looked up (I like to keep a second window open for this). Etcetera, etcetera. Incognito’s defense consists largely of very bad attacks against me. The best defense, in mafia, is not an offense.

There's also the post 88 controversy: where does he say a little or a bit odd? It's perfectly fine to paraphrase people's posts, but not if you use quotation marks. And I can't find him saying anything similar, there's no mention of strange or weird either.

Where did I use the phrase "a little odd" or "a bit odd"

in that post?

I just used Ctrl + F to find

the word "odd" on Page 4

, and I only found two instances of the word.

I’ve bolded where Incog has inserted false parameters in my accusation. Which actually reads:

Also Incog

chronically

commits the same sin he accuses Apyadg of, using

phrases like

“a little odd” and “a bit odd.”

Do I say he does it in that post? On page 4? No. I say he does it “chronically.” Do I limit my accusation to “the word odd?” No. I mention “phrases like ‘a little odd’ and ‘a bit odd’. Let’s open up an isolated record of Incog’s posts and do the real count: strange statement (#5); weird, vague post (#7); is somewhat weird (#7); I don't particularly like (#12); a bit odd (#13); kind of odd (#13); at least noteworthy (#16); more noteworthy (#16). That’s eight instances before my PBPA, each one referring directly to behavior that is suspect. I’ve left out several that didn’t refer to such behavior. Since then, he has used such gems as "hilarious" and "cute" to refer to the same behavior, showing that his tendancies are truly

chronic

. So, which one of us is misrepresenting the other?

More importantly, Incog makes it sound like I was saying that his use of such phrases, by itself, is scummy and he is thereby diverting attention from the real argument. I said no such thing and in fact believe no such thing. Let’s look at this bit in context.

He deflects suspicion back on Apyadg, reiterating his use of the word “bad” to vaguely say “scummy"... ...Incog chronically commits the same sin he accuses Apyadg of, using phrases like “a little odd” and “a bit odd.”

I have said that one of the few “scumtells” Incog is using to justify his suspect vote on Apyadg is either (1) a non-tell, (2) a very unreliable tell, or (3) a reliable tell that Incog himself has commited more often than Apyadg has.

My main problem with this is that, in context, Apyadg’s meaning was clear... ...Even in context, these statements of his are less clear than Apyadg’s and could actually be construed as intentionally placing suspicion without coming out and saying it.

I am saying that, if Incog is suggesting that Apyadg’s use of “bad” was scummy because using such vague terminology can be denied or redefined in later arguments, then it should be noted that Incog’s uses of similar terms are even more vague than Apyadg’s.

The conclusion of this argument is that either Incog is using false/mistaken reasons for his suspicious vote on Apyadg or he himself is scummy based on the same reasons. It is a valid argument which Incog clearly dodges. He’s slippery but read him carefully and you will catch a lot of these little tricks. Read my PBPA, his defense, and the posts to which they refer. If there are other specific questions, I will answer them, but I’d rather not have to do all the work here.

[Ythill]

EBWOP:

one of the few “scumtells” Incog is using to justify his suspect vote on Apyadg

This is worded badly. I am not saying that Incog links the vote and the scumtell directly. He doesn't

say

this is why he's voted Apyadg and I didn't mean to suggest that he had.

[Incognito]

Ythill, did you really only realize that when Incognito brought it up, as seems to be indicated in post 229? Because that really seems to indicate that you know he's innocent, or if Incognito is not your eventual target that you suspect you'll be killing town. I mean, you really hadn't considered that?

I didn't think it through. When typing my possible outcomes, it occured to me that mafia could screw me by not killing. I didn't consider my target's alignment in that situation at all. Very bad oversight on my part, I know.

Bullshit. You've already said with great certainty that I'm scum. For you to not consider your target's alignment (in this case Incognito the scum) when you suggested the "excellent strategy number 4" just doesn't seem to ring true to me. What

does

ring true to me is that you're scum and when you were writing up your point about "excellent strategy number 4", you were thinking about it with the knowledge that Incognito will appear as Town when the mod reveals his alignment.

First point: does the slip up Incog hypothesises seem like a realistic mistake? Meaning, if I am forward-thinking enough to lay out this elaborate "carpet," does it follow that I am short-sighted enough to miss such an obvious hole in the plan?

Of course it's a realistic mistake. It just happened.

Second point: the "doc protected" plan seems much more viable if I am scum, so what's the point of me asking the doc not to protect me? In Incog's theory, wouldn't that be entirely counter-productive? As scum, I should have asked for doc protection.

Hmm... A little "Wine In Front of Me" perhaps? You're forcing us to think that if Ythill is scum, then he should have also asked for the doc's protection. Since he didn't, he must not be scum. Not asking for the doctor's protection of course

seems

like a very generous town action when in this case it's the action of the scum attempting to fool the Town.

Final point. Look at Incog's actions here and ask yourself why he selected the course he did. He has several options. He could go back and try a real defense against my PBPA, clearing himself enough to put Shteven back in my sights. He could try to find "the real scum" and direct my kill towards them. Or he can look for a mistake in my post and continue to argue desperately to lynch me. Which of these are the most realistic approaches for town? For scum?

I've already tried to respond to what I call, your Post By Post Distortion and upon doing so, I noticed so many points that were complete misrepresentations of things that I mentioned in the thread that I didn't even feel the need to complete the response. In fact, I urge everyone to sit down and read his so-called PBPA of me. Take the time to go to each and every post that he cites (since he didn't do anyone the favor and link each one), read what he says, read the actual post that I made in which he's referring to, and determine for yourself if his PBPA is actually valid. I've already found the real scum, Ythill. One of them happens to be you.

The obvious move here for any townie is to steer clear of a D1 lynch on me, waiting for my confirmation and lynching me D2 if it does not come. In the case of a townie who is my declared target, the obvious move is to stall the lynch, try and clear himself, and work hard to determine if my #2 suspect is actually scummy.

And this would be assuming I have actually bought your claim of being the One-Shot Night-Kill Vigilante, in which case I haven't. Think about it like this: Let's assume that you really are this One-Shot Night-Kill Vigilante that you claim to be. Would it really make sense from your perspective as a member of the town, who's duty and obligation is to the town, to form this solid conclusion about another player after creating a PBPA and reading my response to that PBPA to come forward and announce to everyone that you're the One-Shot Night-Kill Vig whose primary target is Incognito and that you absolutely

know

I an scum? And you did all this when the possibility of you being lynched was still very slim since you only had 3 votes on you. If you were actually this townie, you would have taken a step back and thought for a second: Wait, what if Incognito isn't scum and here I am announcing to everyone that I will kill him at night? The scum wouldn't even bother Night Killing you since they would know you're targeting a townie and you'll end up being Vanilla once you finish killing me. The scum also wouldn't even bother Night Killing me since they would also know I'm a townie and that you're gonna take care of me by killing me. They would just let you proceed with your killing and target a completely different target from the list of other potential victims that they have.

But now let's assume that you're Mafia. What would you have to gain by claiming this role? First off, in a mini-game there's no guarantee that we even have a Vigilante. So technically you could rest assured that there probably won't be a counterclaim since there's a good chance the role doesn't exist. And even if a counterclaim did come forward, you could mention "Oh but you must be day-kill. Mine is night-kill so no worries, I'm still telling the truth". Secondly, if I actually bought your claim and ended up not getting lynched today, you could keep your target that you will now be keeping at the bottom of each of your posts on me, realizing that "Hey, Incognito is a Townie. He's buying my claim and in an effort to prevent his own death which would be a loss to the Town, he'll claim his role before Night 1 rolls around." If I have a power role, then BINGO you just scored big by claiming to be the Vig. If I don't have a power role, then you and your mafia buddies could turn your attention on someone else from the town who may have a power role. Thirdly, you've laid out the rest of the beauty behind the claim ahead of you - you would from then on appear to everyone as this Vanilla Townie since you "used up" your one shot and you would be able to guide the town to mislynches.

Insead, Incog analyzes my post and finds a mistake that he immediately (and repeatedly) insists leads to no other conclusion except Ythill=scum + Incog=town even though there is at least one other explanation. He pushes this ruthlessly (look at his recent post count compared to a couple days ago) to try and get town to hang me. Why the rush?

I'm in no rush. I have no problem allowing the day to progress forward. My only fear is that you will somehow talk your way out of this one (like you're attempting to do right now) to hopefully lead the town to a mislynch on Day 1. You're also acting like that one mistake (which is a pretty horrific mistake considering how certain you are of me being scum) was the only reason I concluded that you are probably scum. Your PBPA of me was so bad and such a drastic misrepresentation of me that it was easy for me to come to the conclusion that you're scum. Your actions this whole day have also helped me to come to this conclusion (constantly reaffirming to everyone that you're a townie, mentioning that only the towniest of the town will realize Incognito's mistake in his post, flat-out lying about different points within the thread). The mistake you made was just a little icing on the cake.

Ask yourself the same questions about most of his posts: his hint that he has a power-role, his request for counter claims, his fence-riding habits, his "case" against apyadg, his shifty defense to my PBPA, etc, etc, etc. I am very comfortable letting you all form your own answers to these questions.

Where did I hint that I have a power role? And what's so bad about my counterclaim request? If someone counterclaims you, we'd

know

that at least one of you is lying, and we'd eventually be pretty much guaranteed to out one scum. With regard to Apyadg, my analysis of him wasn't allowed to continue since he never appeared in the thread again to provide us with that promised scum-hunting.

Also, take a look at Justin. I think he's pretty clearly a vanilla townie and I have been his top suspect since very early in the game. Yet he is giving my claim the benefit of the doubt. Why? Why wouldn't Incog do the same?

Seriously, what kind of a townie attempts to figure out the role of another townie? Oh, I know which kind: the kind who's actually scum. And I'm not giving you the benefit of the doubt because as I mentioned before, since you were so certain that I am scum it strikes me as unbelievable that you would make a mistake that badly when laying out your "excellent strategy" number 4.