Mini 539: Game over


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Post Post #275 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 1:20 pm

Post by Shteven »

Being as my last post was somewhat atypical and secretive, I figured I'd throw in a wall of text here to get back to the normal order of things.

Regarding Ythill/Incognito: I think Incognito is being earnest here; and I am less certain that Ythill is. Yet, it's true what Ythill said about his (too early) claim being provable; and as Justin mentioned, the town has
a lot
to gain in the case that his claim really is true. However, if we do collectively decide to let their argument be handled in the night time phase, as I think we should, then we still have the immediate concern of who to lynch day one, before the holy wrath of the mod deadlines us.

To that end, I really don't trust Disciple Slayer. He is lurking; but more than that, he is purposefully lurking. It seems to suit him well. He promises more content at a later date, only to let it pass and continue to slide by. It's quite frankly textbook in my opinion. His arguments seem disconnected from reality and don't jive with those of at least a significant minority of the town. For example:
Disciple Slayer wrote: There was no way MafiaSSK's initial vote could have been a serious one. Come on, who finds someone suspicious at the beginning of the random voting stage? That was obviously a joke vote.
Both Apyadg and Ho1den immediately disagreed with this in the following two posts. It should be pointed out that Apyadg was the one that DS was attacking, just for the record. I also sided against DS although only later, once I had replaced into the thread, since this post predates my joining the game.

I remain suspicious of Apyadg to a certain degree, but not nearly as much as DS. DS's only votes in the game have been for Apyadg (possible distancing, possibly not) and then he followed Ythill's case and voted for me. Since then he's committed two more errors. First, the player listing that wasn't informative in any way, as it only contained any information at all about one player, myself. And much more importantly, an out-of-the-blue attempt to get a mass roleclaim on day one. This has to be one of the worst tells I've ever seen. I have only played in a handful of games, and I am almost always wrong day 1 lynches. The only time I was actually right on a day 1 lynch was in the just-recently-abandoned open 50. Sammich did a player by player analysis, and said he thought I was a doctor. I called him on the role fishing and went after him for it. Though the game never completed, the post game discussion revealed he was actually scum. DS has attempted to get the same power role reveal here, and I intend to see him hang for it.

I'm already voting for him, so there's no new vote casting down here. I encourage others to do the same.
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Post Post #276 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 1:22 pm

Post by Shteven »

Wow. Simulpost with Justin. Stop reading my thoughts, damnit. The posts are 6 minutes apart, but I promise you it took me more than 6 minutes to write my post. Remind me to start re-checking the thread the second before I make posts.
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Post Post #277 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 1:33 pm

Post by Shteven »

Interestingly enough, having just read Justin's case, it's entirely non-redundant with mine. I should have paid more attention to that final post of his; in any case, my hat's off to Justin.
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Post Post #278 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 1:40 pm

Post by Incognito »

Excellent posts both of you, and I completely agree. I too thought about Disciple Slayer's vote against Apyadg as an early form of distancing especially considering the rapidity with which he removed it. I've also mentioned previously how I think Ythill has been awfully accommodating of DS here:
Incognito wrote:And so you find me scummier than Disciple Slayer for making Post 109 than his Post 89 in which he pops up out of nowhere to place a vote on Apyadg? I think you've been awfully accommodating towards Disciple Slayer this whole game. Apyadg was already being questioned by Ho1den, and I became suspicious of Disciple Slayer for placing a vote on Apyadg the way he did. Considering Disciple Slayer's action, I was actually beginning to form a different opinion about Apyadg but I was still waiting for the scum-hunting that he promised before removing my vote. He has yet to provide us with that scum-hunting.
and since I have such a low impression of Ythill already, I wouldn't be surprised by that scum grouping. Ythill's recent removal of his FoS on Shteven and switch to DS could also be some form of distancing. Basically, he could use another vote so I would like to

Unvote; Vote: Disciple Slayer


Justin, I wouldn't mind reading the rest of your analysis on DS.
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Post Post #279 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 2:28 pm

Post by Justin Playfair »

Bless you, Incognito. You are the first person who ever asked for one of these when I offered (except for Shteven in a game where I was hunting him to the ends of the earth, to make me take a break). Yeah, that same one where he was a doctor.

Anyway, here it is. Disciple Slayer. It breaks oddly at the end because of course that wasn't originally the end:

Nine posts total here. In his first post he takes up the notion of not random voting and points out he will be too busy to do much of anything else until the 9th of December.

On the 10th of December he posts this:
Disciple Slayer wrote:VOTE: APYADG

Because something seems off about you. There was no way MafiaSSK's initial vote could have been a serious one. Come on, who finds someone suspicious at the beginning of the random voting stage? That was obviously a joke vote. You look like you're trying to find something to cling to, like you're trying to build a case on nothing. Secondly, if he's still the scummiest person in the game to you, why'd you remove your vote? Is it because it doesn't really matter to you who gets lynched, as long as it isn't you or your scumbuddies?
So a quick dive into the scum hunting pool, just long enough to vote Apyadg. Not a really horrible reason for the vote, but he seems more suspicious of Apyadg’s original vote on MafiaSSK than he does the oddness surrounding Apyadg’s behavior when he took it off. Jumps on Apyadg hard, but I suppose that’s Disciple Slayer’s style. This seems too strong to me for the evidence Disciple Slayer provided, but it’s nothing ChronX, for example, didn’t do more of.

Some people have mentioned the “obviously a joke vote” bit, and that bothers me some too, because it was as good an early tell as anyone would be likely to give that early in the game, and Apyadg’s initial reactions are exactly the sort of activity that moves the game into serious territory. And it did, with MafiaSSK shedding additional early game scum tells that could reasonably have kept votes on him for awhile. But as Incognito pointed out, this may have come from Disciple Slayer commenting well after the fact of the behavior.

On the 11th Disciple Slayer calls (I suppose) me and Ythill grammar Nazis and posts that he is watching the thread and will be available for any questions.

On the 13th, after Incognito mentions that Disciple Slayer is getting questions but not answering them, Disciple Slayer points out, about 30 minutes after Incognito posts, that he will commence doing so on the 18th.

On the 26th, three days after I pointed out the possibly curious timing of Disciple Slayer’s post on the 13th, Disciple Slayer posts that he is now available for those questions. Nothing possibly curious about that timing, but Disciple Slayer doesn’t go back to find the questions himself, he asks them to be restated.

And this is curious, because of what comes next.

Ythill is nice enough to repost some of the questions for Disciple Slayer. About an hour and a half later Disciple Slayer responds with this:
Disciple Slayer wrote:Thanks, Ythill.

Apyadg just seems confused. He doesn't seem like he knows what he's doing. I'm going to UNVOTE him for now, pending my reread.

Player summaries will be posted after my reread.

I still think MSSK's vote was a joke vote.

I was fairly busy then, and my schedule kept changing. I have enough time for a quick reread and player summaries, then I'm going to be away 'til after new year's.
And this is curious, because apparently Disciple Slayer has changed his mind entirely about Apyadg.

What made Disciple Slayer do this?

Apyadg’s last post in thread was on the morning of the 11th. It is the evening of the 11th, hours after Apyadg’s last post in thread, when Disciple Slayer said he was ready for any questions and issued his opinion on grammar Nazis. In this case it is the grammar Nazis statement that is most important, because this indicates that Disciple Slayer was still reading the thread. And in the post above, in reply to Ythill, Discple Slayer indicates he hasn’t done a reread yet since he has returned.

Maybe Disciple Slayer had thought about it while he wasn’t posting. It’s a small thing, but another one that adds to the impression that Disciple Slayer may have been lurking instead of gone.

Disciple Slayer has yet to give us player summaries, just this:
Disciple Slayer wrote:I think most of the vocal people here are just townies arguing with each other. Only Shteven/NJH has really pinged my scumdar. My bet is that he's scum, with his buddies hiding in the shadows.
This was accompanied by a list of the players in the game. Why? To give the impression of doing more than he had? And as far as hiding in the shadows, who has done that more comprehensively, from the game’s opening bell to the present, than Disciple Slayer?
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Post Post #280 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 4:18 pm

Post by Ythill »

I would like to read the first part of your DS case, Justin.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #281 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 5:54 pm

Post by Incognito »

Ythill wrote:I would like to read the first part of your DS case, Justin.
He already provided it~
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Post Post #282 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2008 8:50 pm

Post by Nanosauromo »

The Counting of the Votes

Disciple Slayer - 3 (kuribo, Shteven, Incognito)
Shteven - 1 (Disciple Slayer)
MafiaSSK - 1 (Xtoxm)
Apyadg - 1 (charter)

Not voting - 5 (Claus, Ythill, MafiaSSK, Ho1den, Justin Playfair, Apyadg)

12 alive, 7 to lynch!


Apyadg, MafiaSSK, charter, and Ho1den have been prodded.
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Post Post #283 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:08 am

Post by kuribo »

Xtoxm wrote:If DS is the way votes are going I'll be happy to swap my vote.
Don't be a sheep, use your own opinion.

It's scummy to say "I'll change my vote if the rest of you want me to."
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Post Post #284 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:24 am

Post by Xtoxm »

kuribo wrote:
Xtoxm wrote:If DS is the way votes are going I'll be happy to swap my vote.
Don't be a sheep, use your own opinion.

It's scummy to say "I'll change my vote if the rest of you want me to."
....You not been listening to a thing i've been saying?

Quite a while back I said I would be happy to vote for either SSK or DS. Go look back.
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Post Post #285 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:22 am

Post by kuribo »

Xtoxm wrote:
Quite a while back I said I would be happy to vote for either SSK or DS. Go look back.
And what I'm saying is that it's scummy to ask permission to put a vote somewhere. It's scummy because if they come up town, you've already created an explanation.

Just vote if you're going to vote.
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Post Post #286 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 6:09 am

Post by Xtoxm »

kuribo wrote:
Xtoxm wrote:
Quite a while back I said I would be happy to vote for either SSK or DS. Go look back.
And what I'm saying is that it's scummy to ask permission to put a vote somewhere. It's scummy because if they come up town, you've already created an explanation.

Just vote if you're going to vote.
I didn't ask permission, it was a statement
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Post Post #287 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:56 am

Post by Justin Playfair »

Incognito,

If you would, could you explain in more detail your links between Disciple Slayer and Ythill? Because my reading of Disciple Slayer’s plan only really works, in my mind, if Disciple Slayer knows Ythill is town.

I’ve gone through all the possible scenarios (I hope), doc/cop, doc/no cop, no doc/cop, no doc/no cop and all the various possible scum false claims, and I come up with just a handful that would end up taking the heat off Ythill. And in fact, unless scum was willing to expose themselves by making a false doc/cop claim, to lynch Ythill the real doc/cop could just keep their mouths shut. So it doesn’t even work very well as bussing what Disciple Slayer might see as an unsalvageable buddy in order to do some claim fishing.

On the other hand, to clear Ythill on day two, with the scenario Disciple Slayer has sketched out, there would almost certainly have to be at least one claim made.

I only really see two possibilities about Disciple Slayer’s scheme:

1. Disciple Slayer hasn’t really been paying any attention to the thread at all and just wants to post something now and then to keep his hand in.
2. Disciple Slayer knows Ythill is not mafia.

If it’s the first it doesn’t tell us anything about either of them, and Ythill will either be cleared or indicted by the morning’s discoveries. If it’s the second it’s the best evidence I’ve seen so far that Ythill is town.

By the way, the only scenarios that could help Ythill in Disciple Slayer’s scheme, so far as I can see them, are:

No cop/Doc: Ythill guesses who the doc blocked correctly. Tells town. Doc confirms. (best case scenario for Ythill/DS scum. saves Ythill, outs power role)
No cop/No doc/Scum doc: Clears Ythill.
No cop/Doc/Scum cop: Scum Cop clears Ythill, Ythill guesses who doc blocked correctly.
No cop/No doc/Scum cop: Clears Ythill.
No cop/No doc/Scum cop/Scum doc: If scum are both stupid enough to make both these claims and lucky enough to get away with them, well, we aren't going to win anyway.

Because any competing claims would, I think, default to a Ythill lynch, just to clear up the competing claims. And in that case two scum would go down, day two and three. And the four scenarios above are the longest of long shots among the possibilities. Even the one false claim/real claim scenario that wouldn’t immediately result in a lynch of the false claimant, after checking Ythill…

Cop/no doc/Scum doc: Cop detects Ythill/Scum doc confirms Ythill.

…would still result in a Ythill lynch followed by some suspicion of the doc. It would also result in some suspicion of a real doctor, in that scenario, if the doctor decided it was worth speaking up. And the scenarios that work for scum are extremely high risk, requiring either a correct guess on who a real doc protected from Ythill or scum to make a false claim that might immediately be challenged, with a Ythill lynch as the obvious and nearly infallible method of finding the truth.


Anyway, my reading is that if one believes Disciple Slayer's plan to be scummy as opposed to inattentive, Ythill is not mafia. But I could certainly be missing something.
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Post Post #288 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:35 am

Post by Ythill »

Can't... stay... away...
Incognito wrote:
Ythill wrote:I would like to read the first part of your DS case, Justin.
He already provided it~
Yeah. An oooops on my part. Checked the game by refreshing page 11. Didn't notice page 12 until this morning.

I'm not going to get involved in the question of my claim here. I'm not opposed to a DS vote, but am abstaining for the moment because I would like more information before we lynch
anyone
. Reiterating that I am taking my night kill very seriously.

I still would like to hear defenses from Incog that suppose I am town because, for obvious reasons, I have trouble seeing the logic in defenses that hinge on me being scum. I believe the people we know the least about (in no particular order) are Xtoxm, Apyadg, charter, klaus, and kuribo. Did I miss anyone?

Also, I have a question for the field. Please everyone, answer directly. Assuming we lynch DS, who should I NK and why?
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #289 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:51 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Well the only one other than DS i'm finding scummy atm is SSK. So him. Wouldn't surprise me if one of the inactives is the last scum...I am assuming, considering game size, that there are 3 mafia. Would be this right?
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Post Post #290 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:03 am

Post by Ythill »

Thanks for the direct answer. Awaiting others...

I think that 2:SK:9 and/or 2:2:8 and/or 3:SK:8 and or 2:10 could be balanced by tweaking the power-roles enough. 3 mafia isn't a foregone conclusion but it is probably the safest guess. Then again, I'm not that experienced so I could be wrong about this.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #291 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:14 am

Post by Xtoxm »

What i've heard is the town mafia ratio is usually 3:1, so I think 9 town 3 mafia is likely with no 3rd party roles. That is also how I hope it it, cos if there's any 3rd party there will be an SK, which would suck.
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Post Post #292 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 1:16 pm

Post by MafiaSSK »

FINALLY! STUPID FIREFOX! Yeah I think I'll need a replacement. I'm sorry but Firefox isn't working well with MafiaScum. So sorry guys.
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Post Post #293 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 1:57 pm

Post by Incognito »

Justin, I don't think Disciple Slayer's plan clears Ythill or DS at all, and I think it works quite well as bussing an unsalvageable buddy. You're right though; it would have been dependent on whether or not there really is a Doc and Cop and whether or not said Doc/Cop would be willing to go along with the strategy and reveal the information learned at the start of the next day. If the strategy actually went through though and Ythill really did appear as guilty, I could see it as an attempt for DS to kill two birds with one stone: he would come away looking fairly innocent for suggesting the strategy that lead the town to find one scum, and it would pave the way for the scum to rid the town of some power roles.
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Post Post #294 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:39 pm

Post by Shteven »

@mafiaSSK: I use Firefox, and I'm sure a decent percentage of players here do. I suspect there may be something wrong with your setup/installation; but without information about it I can't be any more specific. Try to fix it, but in the end, if you can't, the replacement may be needed.

@Ythill: Orginally I was thinking that it may not be in our best interest to expose our night plan to the mafia members who would be most interested in it, but I think I may be able to come up with something that works. Sadly I just went out with a friend for a bit, and it's now 1:30am, so I'll get on this tommorow. Still, be aware there are evil eyes reading your night plans, so they either have to be completely foil-proof or else you're better of not using them.
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Post Post #295 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:20 pm

Post by Ythill »

@ Shteven: Not going to discuss my plans, just want to get people's individual opinions.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #296 (ISO) » Thu Jan 03, 2008 2:20 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Ythill I just realised if there's a mafia roleblocker you're wasting you're one kill
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Post Post #297 (ISO) » Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:57 am

Post by kuribo »

Okay, hold on...


Endless speculation about power roles...

Speculation about how many mafia one assumes there will be...

Stating you'll change your vote if the town goes this way?

Xtoxm is scum. GG.
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Post Post #298 (ISO) » Thu Jan 03, 2008 7:06 am

Post by Ythill »

Xtoxm wrote:I just realised if there's a mafia roleblocker you're wasting you're one kill
Funny, because I already mentioned the role-blocker risk in post #241. I'm looking forward to reading Xtoxm's response to kuribo.
Record:
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Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #299 (ISO) » Thu Jan 03, 2008 8:30 am

Post by kuribo »

Ythill wrote:
Also, I have a question for the field. Please everyone, answer directly. Assuming we lynch DS, who should I NK and why?
And stop fishing for direction. You're so eager to move on to night, when if you're town, you should be here on Day 1 trying to get the best lynch off.

Also, since you said you mentioned the idea of a roleblocker first, I'll include that in my thoughts, too.
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