Mini 539: Game over

[Xtoxm]

Okay, hold on...


Endless speculation about power roles...

Speculation about how many mafia one assumes there will be...

Stating you'll change your vote if the town goes this way?

Xtoxm is scum. GG.

If those things are "scumtells" I guess I have no defense for it.

[Xtoxm]

I just realised if there's a mafia roleblocker you're wasting you're one kill

Funny, because I already mentioned the role-blocker risk in post #241. I'm looking forward to reading Xtoxm's response to kuribo.

Oh, didn't realise. I only skim some of the bigger posts.

[MafiaSSK]

Ok. This is odd. Anyways it'll take me a day or so to catch up on 4 pages of material. So I'll post my opinions in a day.

[Incognito]

SSK, if you're back for good now, you might wanna tell the mod. I saw him place a post in the Replacements thread.

[Ythill]

Also, I have a question for the field. Please everyone, answer directly. Assuming we lynch DS, who should I NK and why?

And stop fishing for direction. You're so eager to move on to night, when if you're town, you should be here on Day 1 trying to get the best lynch off.

I think I've made it clear that I'm not eager for night. Rather, I want to gather as much information as I can before it happens. Hence my question which, by the way, serves the dual purpose of helping me decide as well as prompting everyone (including scum) to post more of their opinions for consideration in the hunt.

It has been noted that you haven't answered. And that you are directing ridiculous attacks at me though my alignment is almost certain to be revealed in the near future. What are you trying to accomplish here?

Finally, I find it highly unbelievable that any townie would have a problem with speculation about scum power-roles.

[Shteven]

Scum power roles are very uncommon. I don't recall seeing any in a non-theme game I've been in. I'm sure they're out there. They are showing up in a new format for newbie games now, but still; they aren't that common. My assumption would be that we don't have any mafia role blockers. It's only worth mentioning because it is a possibility which would undermine the provability of Ythill's claim, which could be a problem day 2.

@Ythill: An attempt was made to keep this short:

Killing your announced target gives you the best chance of failing due to a doctor protection. Killing an unexpected target gives you the best chance of double-killing with the mafia. Both of these are unlikely cases, and aren't central to the choice.

Your power has a significant, likely chance (72% under the assumption of 3 scum and random night kill choice, and that Ythill won't target himself and that he is a pro-town vig) to actually HARM the town. It is not something that should be used lightly. I'm sure you can do better than 72% based on information, but this is only day 1, and you don't have all that much to go on. I've said it before, so I'll be brief, but this is why a day 1 claim is too early, especially unpressured. Not killing anyone at all is actually what I would have recommended; better to have some bodies to use as evidence before you select more to die. But now you're more or less forced to use it, which is why the claim was wrong.

Cutting out a whole paragraph here; suffice it to say, don't bother trying to guess who the mafia will kill and avoiding that person; it won't work. Go by who you think is the scummiest.

So what it boils down to is that you're asking us all to vote for two people today. Because we're already voting for who we think is scummiest; and then the night kill would go to the second scummiest person. But then you've even assigned DS as the scummiest person, so you're asking for second choices. My second choice is a bit harder to give, as there's several people who are close. Ythill, Apyadg, Xtoxm, MafiaSSK. Honestly I'm not that suspicious of Incognito. You're obviously not going to kill yourself, and I'm not looking to kill you before your claim can be proven. Claus needs more time to catch up, but ChronX would have been a good choice. So, in order of targets you'd actually choose (not yourself):

<no vig action> (best choice if unclaimed)
DS (if he's not lynched)
Apyadg/Xtoxm
ChronX
MafiaSSK

Making a vig kill tonight is tantamount to proclaiming you're already certain who two scum are. I don't think anyone can be that good, honestly. You may, however, be that lucky.

Anyways, there you have it. I feel that you are using this more to hunt for scum tells than for assistance in night actions, which is a bit backhanded, but excusable. I also am noting a fairly low participation in it, which may hinder its effectiveness, regardless of purpose. It's somewhat ironic; especially after having typed this, but I still think you're better off doing this alone.

[Justin Playfair]

Apyadg,

Next up on my list of suspicions. Plenty has been said about how his vote went on MafiaSSK and how his vote came off. I didn’t and don’t have any problem with Apyadg’s vote for MafiaSSK or his reasons for it. They wouldn’t have been mine but they seemed well within the bounds of townish possibility.

And the way Apyadg slunk off the wagon, though it would have bothered me a little, wouldn’t have him nearly this high up my list, either. No, the bulk of my suspicion of Apyadg comes from the absolute contradictions in his own claims about why he came off the MafiaSSK wagon.

Post 47:

On the bright side, we've got the game going! I don't think it's a particularly good idea to lynch him based on this; he'd have to be the single worst scum player in the entire world - But his play, whether scum or town, has been awful, he's already admitted to lying to the town, and bandwagon jumping, for no reason at all, it doesn't bode well for him really.

Post 57:

I’ve seen this opinion all over these boards and disagree. A mislynch is always bad for town, but can be acceptable if it reveals information. Lynching for bad play, however, makes it way too easy for wagoneers to justify their votes later. IMO, at this stage, the best strategy for dealing with Mafia is to ignore him while we examine others. It’s not like we’ll be short on evidence if we want to string him up later.

Post 60:

I am going to unvote him, but I want to make it very clear that I still think there's a possibility that he's scum, and it's going to take a lot to knock him down my list of suspicious people (especially as he's the only person on it above the base level), I unvote him purely upon agreeing with Ythill's point from his last post.

Post 70:

And I realised, as I stated, that there's a good reason tonot lynch him.Accepting a good argument != scummy

Post 71:

In other words, MafiaSSK had went from an L-2 situation to an L-4 situation where he was nowhere near being lynched. If you still felt that MafiaSSK was the scummiest person above your baseline, then I don't see any reason for you to unvote him and place him at L-5 when keeping pressure on a person you consider scummy might be to your own benefit if you were town.

Post 92:

I see little reason to keep a vote on someone unless I think they should be lynched at that time. He'd had several votes on him, so I don't think he'd have felt under much "pressure" just due to my vote, if several people had unvoted him.

In post 47 Apyadg explicitly states that he does not think it would be a good idea to lynch MafiaSSK based on his actions.

In post 60 Apyadg cites Ythill’s post 57 as his sole reason for removing his vote from MafiaSSK.

In post 70 Apaydg states that he realized, because of Ythill’s post 57, that there was a good reason not to lynch MafiaSSK, and that accepting a good argument was not scummy.

In post 92, replying to Incognito, Apyadg says he sees little reason to keep a vote on someone unless he thinks they should be lynched at the time.

There are lies in here. There have to be.

Because in post 47, before Ythill’s post 57, which “convinced” Apyadg that it would be a bad idea to lynch MafiaSSK, Apyadg said he didn’t think it would be a good idea to lynch MafiaSSK. And yet in Apaydg’s post 70 he says, explicitly, that he realized because of Ythill’s post 57 that there was not a good reason to lynch MafiaSSK.

Because in post 47 Apyadg says it wouldn’t be a good idea to lynch MafiaSSK, but he keeps his vote on MafiaSSK until post 60, when he uses Ythill’s post to justify removing his vote. And then in post 92 he tells Incognito that he sees little reason to keep a vote on someone unless he thinks they should be lynched at the time.

All of the above simply cannot be true. I can’t in good conscience put a vote on Apyadg when he isn’t here to have an opportunity to explain his actions. I explained this a bit in an earlier post where I was hoping for an Apyadg answer, but I wanted to lay it out fully here, since I am outlining my current level of suspicions against others. Apyadg is number two on my list at the moment. But it is still extremely fluid. Regardless, if Apyadg should return to us, I will want him to explain the above.

[Justin Playfair]

Ythill,

I can’t even tell you who I want to lynch at the moment, much less who I want to lynch and who I want killed beside. I have varying degrees of suspicion toward an awful lot of folks right now. I’ve already covered two, and will take a look at hopefully one more tomorrow. At the moment, though, I’m waiting for answers from my first two. And my third may be changing, which says something for my level of certainty. I’m sorry, but right now you’re going to have to put my name with Kuribo’s on your bad list, because I can’t give you the answer you want.

[Justin Playfair]

Incognito,

The thing is, if we have those power roles they wouldn’t have to speak come morning to hang Ythill. Their silence would imply their absence or their consent with events taking their natural course. If either of those roles are in fact present in town, they would have to be in the hands of very clumsy folks in order for a guilty Ythill to force claims.

The only thing I could think of which would make either have to claim over a guilty Ythill would be if scum made a false claim after deciding to risk that there was no one with such a role. I really do think this would logically lead to the scenario I outlined in my last post where mafia would be decimated.

Do you have some reason I am missing for why a doctor or cop would have to claim on morning two if Ythill’s wrong guess or a cop’s investigation proved him guilty?

But you see, if Ythill came up innocent, the cop or doctor would almost certainly have to claim to clear him. Which could lead to the more dire possibilities. Which is why I think the plan looks so bad. Maybe I’m not explaining it well, or maybe I’m missing something.

A scenario that might reasonably link Disciple Slayer to Ythill with this play is possible, but only if you suppose that the game has a godfather and Ythill is him. But in that case, to have gotten to the spot where he is, Ythill would have to be one of the dumbest players in the world. Putting himself of his own volition into a situation where the normal course of events would kill him, and where to have any chance at salvation town would have to adopt an extremely scummy course of action. And however suspicious I have found Ythill’s actions in this game, which is plenty, I don’t think he’s that.

Incognito, I want to ask you a couple questions. If given your preference, would you still prefer a day one lynch of Ythill? And how would finding two bodies in the morning impact your suspicions of him?

[kuribo]

I think I've made it clear that I'm not eager for night. Rather, I want to gather as much information as I can before it happens. Hence my question which, by the way, serves the dual purpose of helping me decide as well as prompting everyone (including scum) to post more of their opinions for consideration in the hunt.

It has been noted that you haven't answered. And that you are directing ridiculous attacks at me though my alignment is almost certain to be revealed in the near future. What are you trying to accomplish here?

Finally, I find it highly unbelievable that any townie would have a problem with speculation about scum power-roles.

That's just it, your actions DON'T make it clear that you're not eager for night.

Of course I haven't told you who I want you to NK, nor am I going to. Fishing for a "safe" NK is just ASKING for trouble--- as I've pointed out, any number of things can go wrong, and you could simply say "well, you guys told me to."

Yes, I have a problem with speculation about scum power-roles, when we have no evidence yet that it may be the case. It seems like you're trying to set up the possibility of a role-blocker or what-have-you in order to give yourself a ready-made alibi tonight.

Or perhaps you have special knowledge of the setup?

[kuribo]

EBWOP: The second half of that post (From Yes, I have a problem with...) was directed at Xtoxm. Sorry.

[Xtoxm]

I think I've made it clear that I'm not eager for night. Rather, I want to gather as much information as I can before it happens. Hence my question which, by the way, serves the dual purpose of helping me decide as well as prompting everyone (including scum) to post more of their opinions for consideration in the hunt.

It has been noted that you haven't answered. And that you are directing ridiculous attacks at me though my alignment is almost certain to be revealed in the near future. What are you trying to accomplish here?

Finally, I find it highly unbelievable that any townie would have a problem with speculation about scum power-roles.

That's just it, your actions DON'T make it clear that you're not eager for night.

Of course I haven't told you who I want you to NK, nor am I going to. Fishing for a "safe" NK is just ASKING for trouble--- as I've pointed out, any number of things can go wrong, and you could simply say "well, you guys told me to."

Yes, I have a problem with speculation about scum power-roles, when we have no evidence yet that it may be the case. It seems like you're trying to set up the possibility of a role-blocker or what-have-you in order to give yourself a ready-made alibi tonight.

Or perhaps you have special knowledge of the setup?

Or perhaps he's just genuinly worried about that possibility?

[kuribo]

EBWOP2: Xtoxm in addition to Ythill, I mean. I just don't like the whole bit where on D1 some people are trying to figure out the potential roles.

It's not possible yet, and you'll drive yourselves crazy in the process, not to mention hindering the scum huntin'.

[kuribo]

Or perhaps he's just genuinly worried about that possibility?

But there are any number of equally likely roles that could be involved in the game. Wanna discuss whether or not there's a Godfather, a Serial Killer, a Mafia Doc, a Werewolf, a Cult Leader, or a Bus Driver? Maybe a Death Miller? Mafia Janitor? I didn't think so. And neither do I, because it's pointless to argue this stuff before the first night phase.

You don't have any defense for the things I've called you out on, and you're willing to jump straight into Ythill's defense.

While I genuinely believe that Ythill is a liability to the town at the moment, I don't think there's anything we can say or do that will prove his alignment one way or the other, at least not until the first night is past.

unvote, vote: Xtoxm

[Claus]

Wow. I finally finished my re-read. Sorry about the delay, and thanks everyone for the patience.

I'll start writing my first few posts now, so give some time put down my thoughts in words. See you in a few

[Claus]

Short Game Story:

1- Xtomx bandwagon forms during random phase.
2- SSK bandwagon due to his voting of Xtomx
3- Bandwagon dies. Ythill starts questioning everyone, and a lot of people question Apydog for his fleeing the floundering boat.
4- Ythill and Justing begin the Great Semantics War I When Ythill invades Night
5- Game slows down, replacements aplenty.
6- Pressure on Ythil starts to build. 3 votes, but seems more. Ythill claims.
7- Strategy discussion ensues. Ythill wants Incog death. Incog wants someone els.. err, I mean, Ythill dead.
8- Standstill regarding vig plan. People pointing in several suggestions. DS starts gathering votes.


========================

My secret list (as of this post)

The Nice:

Xtomx

: I like his play. He seems direct with his accusations and his defenses. His vote follows his opinions, and his opinions are consistent. Also, he does not verborrage .

Ythill

: IQ 147 boy . Has a tendency to build "infallible secret plans", but when he is not trying to solve the whole game on D1, I like his posts. Has been less wordy the last few pages, which makes me like him more. He attacks other people in a way that I see as honest scumhunting. SK is a possibility.

Shteven

: NightJay was OMGUSy, but from his abandonment, that may be personal. Shteven, on the other hand, seems to be playing solid, and is explicit in his position regarding other players, which is a towntell for me.

Charter

: The little he posted gave me a townie feeling - his case on Apy was good. Then he dissappeared. Needs prodding, but I don't think he is a lynch candidate.

The Unlisted:

Kuribo

:
Kuribo started well, and I though his initial analysis good, even if I didn't agree with some of his points (Suspicion of Ythill, loving JP). His last few posts, however, drew a WTF from me: Fishing for Direction - what is that? Xtomx is scum because he agreed about voting someone he already FoS'ed?

Holden

:
Another lurker. Some of his posts I like (the Apy accusation, the questions to DS, and those to Ythill and Incognito regarding SSF), but he has a very timid style of accusing and not voting, or voting then later saying that he didn't want to lynch the person, that I find scummy. Middle of the road for me.

The Naughty:

MafiaSSK

At first I thought he was either a clueless or a ballsy player with his bandwagon/"I'm lying". But his subsequent lurking, his strange votes on Natude, and specially JP have worsened my opinions of him. Not on the top of my scumlist, but we could do without SSF.

Apydog

Lurker. But the impression I had of him before he dissappeared was really bad, with him jumping up in the SSF bandwagon, and then jumping away after it derailed.

Justin Playfair

About as wordy as Ythill, except that he doesn't really seem to be honestly attacking anyone, and when he is, it is very timid for someone so wordy. Trying to lead the town without dirtying his hands?

And I REALLY don't like his list of possible fakeclaims. The three times out of three that I saw someone do that, they were mafia.

Incognito

He started average, and was on my neutral list until pressure started to fall on him in these last pages. I don't like the way that he reacted to the pressure on him... feels like the last game we played together, where he was scum afterall. And he seems to quickly point to anyone not himself when the heat gets off him.

This seems very similar to post 58, when he overreacts to a small accusation on him. And I have seen it as well in another game we played together.

Disciple Slayer

Votes Apy when it is cool to do so. lurks, but comes back when it is convenient. Shteven vote out of nowhere, and the "hey, let's discuss night strategy". Not lurking - Trying hard to lurk and to look like a VI - not succeeding in either,

=================

What to do:

I don't like the discussion of Power Role strategy at D1. OTOH, I don't find it bad a vig taking suggestion, as long as he remembers that he still is ultimately responsible for accepting the suggestion or not.

Vote: DS

Ythill, if you ask me, you should hit one of those on my Naughty list.

[Xtoxm]

Nice analysis.

Xtomx

: I like his play. He seems direct with his accusations and his defenses. His vote follows his opinions, and his opinions are consistent. Also, he does not verborrage .

Wow, thankyou!!

[Shteven]

Also, my IQ is 146.

Ythill: IQ 147 boy

Wow! You gain 1 IQ point for each game of mafia? I'm going to be a genius!

Glad to see you've caught up, and your reads are pretty consistant with mine. Main players we disagree on would probably be Kuribo and Justin. Kuribo's struck me as pretty solid town so far - Fishing for direction probably isn't as solid a tell as fishing for power roles, but it there could be something there. If he's wrong and vig's a town role then he can lay out the case based on what people told him day 1. It may not help him avoid a lynch anyways. In general keeping the mafia in the dark about town power role choices is a good thing. I suppose my post could have been summed up with "Hit who you think is scummiest, but you're probably going to be wrong, so wait until night 2, except you can't now."

I've played another game with Justin and his posts and attacks took the same form. He was after me for so long I had to ask him to give reads on other players. If you want to see some really long posts, read a few posts from here down. Just skim; they're huge. He was town there; that doesn't prove anything here, but I'd put him in the unlisted section for now.

Sorry for the verbosity!

[Ythill]

@ Shteven: promise me you will join me for a conversation about vig tactics once this game is complete. Pretty please? I think it would be both fun and enlightening.

All of the above simply cannot be true.

I’m going to step up and defend Apyadg or, more correctly, defend my read on him because I think he’s explained himself quite clearly as regards his unvote. Not only is there a scenario by which all of the indicated statements could be true, it’s also the most likely/reasonable scenario: in #47 Apyadg is unsure as to whether lynching for bad play is a good idea, but is willing to vote SSK anyway because he thinks he’s scummy; in #60 (after I have argued that lynching for bad play is not wise), Apyadg still suspects SSK but has decided not to pursue an SSK lynch based on his bad play, so he unvotes; in #70, Apyadg reiterates this; in #71 (after Incog has suggested that there is no reason to

fear

an SSK lynch) Apyadg reiterates again, explaining that it was not fear that motivated his unvote, but the fact that he had decided not to pursue a lynch on SSK.

Basically stated: Apyadg is unsure about strategy but thinks he has a read, he makes up his mind about strategy and acts accordingly without changing the read, people get on his case for it and he defends himself without changing his story. I think this is quite plain. I’m certainly not clearing Apyadg completely but I think this unvote case is the proverbial dead horse and I, for one, don’t buy it.

That's just it, your actions DON'T make it clear that you're not eager for night.

Right, because I’m voting for... nobody. So I must be impatient for night because I’m leading a crusade to lynch my PE#1... no, wait... that would be Incog and what I’ve actually been doing is repeatedly urging him to lodge a reasonable defense. Then I must be impatient because I’m drilling town to lynch the most pressured player... no, wait... that would be DS, whom I haven’t pointed out scummy behavior in since before his little wagon got going.

Yet I have made 738926213812365123 statements seeded throughout this thread cautioning us to avoid rash decisions until we have a decent amount of information from everybody. One of these was posted along with my question about NK opinions and it’s pretty clear: “I'm not opposed to a DS vote, but am abstaining for the moment because I would like more information before we lynch

anyone

.” In that same post I give an extensive list of the information we need before we allow night to fall.

You, my friend, have posted shenanigans. You want to think I’m scum? Fine. But if you’re going to bring a case against me before D2, please be certain it’s a damn good one because otherwise you and I are both being a distraction.

The Nice:

...

Ythill

Yay! Somebody likes me, which makes me feel good personally... but could certainly have ulterior motives at this point. I’ve faced heavy suspicions from 5 players and there’s no way we have 5 scum, so there must be some reasonable dirt on me. At least enough to drop me to MotR on a player analysis? This is especially the case since I spent the early part of the game

intentionally

dropping minor scumtells as part of my “secret infallible plan.” Of course, scum and myself

know

that I am town and therefore about to be confirmed. Clearing me is a smart play from replacement scum coming into the thread at this point.

I am not saying that the above

is

what you are doing. I am mentioning that it

could be

what you’re doing but am willing to also keep in mind the possibility of your reads being honest until one or the other of these explanations is disproven.

Regarding Justin, I have recently entertained new scenarios in which he would be scum and at least one of them is plausible. Still, your case is pretty empty and I look forward to his response. Regarding Incog, I agree with you about his alignment but I find it very suspicious when anyone makes a meta-claim about someone without naming the game.

[Shteven]

@ Shteven: promise me you will join me for a conversation about vig tactics once this game is complete. Pretty please? I think it would be both fun and enlightening.

Certainly.

And no, you're not rushing day 1. You're just getting ahead of us and discussing night 1. This isn't the same thing; but it's easily confused, and I think the mistake was honest.

[Incognito]

Incognito

He started average, and was on my neutral list until pressure started to fall on him in these last pages. I don't like the way that he reacted to the pressure on him... feels like the last game we played together, where he was scum afterall. And he seems to quickly point to anyone not himself when the heat gets off him.

This seems very similar to post 58, when he overreacts to a small accusation on him. And I have seen it as well in another game we played together.

Claus, I don't think your meta-analysis of me is entirely fair and certainly don't think it should be used to place me on your so-called "Naughty List". Remember that the game you and me played together in which I was scum was a game where I was replacing a player who was very obviously scum to just about every player in the game. I posted about 5 or 6 posts and then self-hammered. Further, that game is still ongoing so I don’t think it should be discussed here.

Also, why didn’t you mention anything about Ythill’s role-claim? Do you think that even with his role-claim at L-4, his mistake in “excellent strategy number 4”, and the points I bring up with respect to why his role-claim makes no sense that he still belongs on your “Nice List”? You even listed him as “SK possibility”. That’s a nice thing?

Also I guess it’s worthy to note that you actually placed me on your neutral list early in the game while your predecessor seemed to come to the conclusion that I was definitely scum. What do you think of your predecessor’s arguments against me? How about his arguments against MafiaSSK?

I feel like Justin had questions for me somewhere so I'll get to those when I'm more awake tomorrow morning or afternoon.

[Ythill]

I think the mistake was honest.

I felt the same way, though I couldn't have explained why so clearly. The accusation was absolutely untrue but also not very scummy. I thought shenanigans was a good word for it.

[kuribo]

This is especially the case since I spent the early part of the game

intentionally

dropping minor scumtells as part of my “secret infallible plan.”

Unless you've planned "I hope I get lynched and screw the town," this has to be the worst plan I've ever heard.

I don't buy that you've been intentionally dropping scumtells. That is extremely anti-town, and to admit it is either drop-dead village idiocy or scum thinking it's clever enough to state it and get away with it.

[Xtoxm]

None of the prodded people other than SSK have turned up, mod did you get any responses? If not can we have them replaced?

And SSK where's that post you promised.

[Ythill]

Or you've posted a false dichotomy. And a lame one at that. It's pretty obvious IQ boy isn't playing the VI and what, pray tell, would be the purpose of scum admitting intentional tell-dropping in response to someone putting him on the "nice" list? You're like a kid throwing a tantrum kuribo: long on aggression, short on sense. I think someone needs a time-out.


Thing is, I feel like kuribo believes he is scumhunting. This is just more shenanigans.

Mod: did we get prods on charter and Apyadg?