Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Adel]

@Adel: At the time of your vote, I can only presume you were really sure that Flay is scum. Then in 1069, you talk about what you will do if Flay comes up innocent, and it makes it seem that you are noticeably less confident. Then in 1102, the confident talk seems to be back. My questions are, how sure are you about Flay's guilt now and why did you seem to hedge a bit in 1069?

I am not 100% confident that he is scum. I expect that his is, but I can't know for sure, obviously. As an extreme example, even if I was a cop with a "guilty" investigation on Mr. Flay I wouldn't be 100% sure that he would be revealed as scum upon lynching- he could be a miller or I could have sanity issues.

[Setael]

Scums

Abstract Actuary
some space here
Adel
Oman

Unsure

Sudo_Nym
curiouskarmadog
jerubbaal

Likely Town

Mr. Flay
Jitsu

[Oman]

I dont wholly believe Flay to be town. He fits my "unsure" category, more town than Adel.

Regardless, my scumpicks are Adel and Jer.

[Adel]

My current list, in decending order of scumminess:

Scum

Flay
Setael
{gap}
jerubbaal
Oman

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 1128

Mr. Flay(3):

Adel, Jitsu, jerubbaal

Adel(3):

Oman, Mr. Flay, Setael

Setael(1):

Sudo_Nym

Oman(1):

curiouskarmadog

Not Voting (1):

Abstract Actuary

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

Prodded Abstract Actuary.

[Abstract Actuary]

My top choices for scum are Mr. Flay and Setael. I don't like Adel's playstyle, but I don't think he is scum. I especially think Mr. Flay is a much better lynch than Adel.

I will

vote: Mr. Flay

.

[Adel]

AA are you aware that puts Flay at -1.

[Abstract Actuary]

Yes. Is there a reason we should hold off on doing so at this point?

[jerubbaal]

Set and Oman are highest on my list right now, after Flay, although my evaluation of Oman is somewhat dependent on Flay's alignment. After that, I'm somewhat nervous of Sudo, as he's been entirely a non-contributor all game, but I'm not quite sure what to do with him at this point.

[Oman]

although my evaluation of Oman is somewhat dependent on Flay's alignment.

Am I right in assuming Flayscum = Omanscum?

[jerubbaal]

I think Set is being significantly more of a backseat driver in her support of Flay, which is darn scummy, whether Flay is scum or town. If the scum loses another member (assuming 3 in this scenario, which seems likely), the game starts to look pretty hopeless for them. After our last game, I'm convinced you have the balls to defend your partner blatantly, if it was in the best interest of your game plan. I'm suspicious of Set regardless of Flay's alignment. If Flay comes up scum, I'm really not sure who I'm more suspicious of.

[curiouskarmadog]

AA are you aware that puts Flay at -1.

does that bother you? Your vote is on Flay dont you want him to hang? What was the motivation behind asking AA this? There was a damn vote count above his post, I am pretty sure he knew he was putting Flay at -1.

I also find it suspicious that Jerb mentions that Flay's alignment doesnt matter twice in his is last post.

unvote

this is why I am on the fence here...On one hand I have Oman saying all types of scummy things that could link him to flay and set...on the other, I have a Jer and adel pairing that makes posts like their last that make me wonder what their motivation was.

the only person I feel is town is Jitsu.

but to keep thing interesting..

vote Adel

and yeah, I know it puts you at -1.

so Flay (and adel) being at -1...do you care to claim?

[Abstract Actuary]

curiouskarmadog, it isn't in the town's best interest to force people to claim. For instance, if we are going to lynch Mr. Flay anyway, we would not want Adel to have to claim (vanilla or power) as that would help the mafia overnight.

So, I'm fine with a vote on Adel if you think he is a better lynch than Mr. Flay, but putting him at L-1 for the purpose of getting a claim is not a good play, in my opinion.

[curiouskarmadog]

what makes you think that I put adel at -1 JUST to make her claim? Seems like a jump in logic.

I think claims are good...how do you think we caught Korlash in his lie...now settle down AA and quit pushing crap.

[Mr. Flay]

Adel is still female, folks.

I'm suspicious of Set regardless of Flay's alignment.

That's a pretty interesting statement, since you're voting me.

While I agree with AA that we shouldn't have more people claim than is necessary, it's by no means a sure thing that I'm going to be the lynch for today. Right now just one vote (or unvote) would change that. I will claim or give my final scumlist, or both, if people want. It does not appear that there's a will to quicklynch me, which is a good thing.

Adel, why DID you feel the need to warn AA about putting me at L-1?

[Mr. Flay]

@Adel: At the time of your vote, I can only presume you were really sure that Flay is scum. Then in 1069, you talk about what you will do if Flay comes up innocent, and it makes it seem that you are noticeably less confident. Then in 1102, the confident talk seems to be back. My questions are, how sure are you about Flay's guilt now and why did you seem to hedge a bit in 1069?

I am not 100% confident that he is scum. I expect that his is, but I can't know for sure, obviously. As an extreme example, even if I was a cop with a "guilty" investigation on Mr. Flay I wouldn't be 100% sure that he would be revealed as scum upon lynching- he could be a miller or I could have sanity issues.

You're not an insane cop, which is good to know. So what IS the basis for your immovable vote? Posting analysis?

At this point it's probably worth putting all your cards on the table. I won't attack you for reneging on your earlier refusal to explain your vote, since I've been asking for it all along.

[Setael]

So, I'm fine with a vote on Adel if you think he is a better lynch than Mr. Flay

@AA - did you really just say you'd vote Adel if CKD thinks you should?

[Setael]

Ok nvm I think I misread your post. What you're saying is you're "fine with" CKD's vote on Adel. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Jitsu]

Wow, this is certainly an interesting situation, isn't it?

Asking for more claims than necessary is generally not good as it can increase the chance that the scum will find the power roles and NK them. Normally asking for two claims is a really bad idea.

But I have to say that this is an interesting case. I probably haven't read through many games on this site as some of you here, but I have to think that having two players at L-1 when 9 are alive is relatively rare.

Normally, I would unvote to think about this, but if people were going to quicklynch, they would have done it by now. And I think it is really interesting that Sudo is now the swing vote, so I kind of like the situation where it is now. This could be a rare opportunity to learn something about Sudo.

The other thing we have to be careful of is whether or not this is a limited reveal game. If it is, and we are only given the affiliation on death, then the role information is extremely valuable as scum learn less information than normal from a death scene. Claims then are hugely important, as that is one of the best ways they have to gain such information. It also makes it harder for scum to fakeclaim, sice they can never really be certain if a power role is dead or nonexistant (unless the mod has provided safeclaims for them).

I would like to hear Adel's answer to CKD's question before we ask for/get any claims.

I still think Flay and Setael have acted scummy today, but I'm not quite as sure of their guilt as I was before. And Adel is still a big unknown to me given her lack of explanation for the immovable vote. One big reason I am torn is because of the opposite viewpoints Adel and Setael have about Flay: either Adel is accusing the wrong guy, or Setael is protecting the wrong guy. Adel would be stupid to accuse Flay by casting an unmovable vote without a good reason (if she's wrong, I think she has to rise near the top of most people's suspect lists). By the same token, it is stupid for Setael to continue to protect Flay without a good reason after they have been linked and Flay has come under heavy suspicion. At this point, I am wondering which of the two was right.

Adel and Setael may or may not know if the reason behind Adel's vote was good. But Flay definitely does. In addition, Setael may or may not know if protecting Flay is in the town's interest, but again, Flay does. The only person we can be sure of that knows both of these things at this point is Flay. Of everyone involved in the Adel/Flay standoff, I believe Flay has the most central role and is most directly linked to everyone else. I've said in the past that my lynch candidate is out of the people I find scummy, the one whose lynch provides the most information. And for me today, that is Flay.

@Flay: How do you know that Adel is not an insane cop?

[Jitsu]

Clarification: I meant that Flay knows if Adel's vote on him was justified or not, not the specific reasoning behind the bote.

[Mr. Flay]

The other thing we have to be careful of is whether or not this is a limited reveal game. If it is, and we are only given the affiliation on death, then the role information is extremely valuable as scum learn less information than normal from a death scene. Claims then are hugely important, as that is one of the best ways they have to gain such information.

If true (and I have no idea if it is or not, yet), it would mean scum are

more likely

to have known the answer to Adel's question in post 950. This could be a slip worth analyzing...

[Adel]

AA are you aware that puts Flay at -1.

does that bother you? Your vote is on Flay dont you want him to hang? What was the motivation behind asking AA this? There was a damn vote count above his post, I am pretty sure he knew he was putting Flay at -1.

I've seen enough "accidental" hammers in recent weeks that I thought it was worth bringing attention to the obvious.

[Adel]

And Adel is still a big unknown to me given her lack of explanation for the immovable vote.

At the time I placed my immovable vote I felt that I had some obvious-townie captial I could spend from being so right about Korlash. Part of my playstyle is prompting reactions from players by making ambigious actions. It helps me model the personalities of the other players better.

I don't feel that I am in enough danger to claim. Does Flay?

[Adel]

@Flay: How do you know that Adel is not an insane cop?

I seriously want to hear the answer to this one. Seriously.

[curiouskarmadog]

accidental hammers means (most likely) someone hammered a townie but used the excuse they didnt know the vote count. Why would you care if someone "accidentally" hammered someone you want us to believe YOU think is most likely scum?