Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!

[PJ.]

@Panzerjager:

Why do you think Elias is town?

Cause his vote counts are sexy.

- Damn right.

I am pround of myself, I made it a year.

FoS:DarkErmac

I haven't really liked what he has had to say, but i think it's semantics cause the idea isn't scummy just the words.

[Dark Ermac]

The way I word things is... I guess you could say it's a bit scummy, but that's just the way I type.

[PJ.]

Understandable

[hasdgfas]

@DE: Weren't you the one saying that we'll most likely lynch a townie earlier so we should just random vote? This isn't a random vote and, yes, it may be a townie, but we always take that chance. I like how you also totally ignored the entire discussion about your statement when you are the only person who could really clarify it.

[Sangy]

Right. I am terribly, terribly sorry about how inactive I've been. I can barely find the time to check in every two days, let alone make a detailed post that's actually contributing. Fortunately, I've got a nice big chunk of time right now, which I'll use to get caught up, so I don't fall too behind again. Unfortunately, I can't make any guarantees that I'll be active for a while following this, because I'm the lead in a production that opens on Friday, have finals approaching NEXT Friday, and have three essays due some time in the next two weeks. I've got college applications due and scholarships due, as well. (Actually, that last bit means I'll probably post MORE- I'll be procrastinating on my essays.) Next week, I won't even be getting home until 9:00 PM each day, but I should be able to get in a tiny 'here's my opinion' post before school each morning.

So: Posting this now, and within the hour you should at least have my basic suspicions. Again, I'm very sorry- I know that lurking does absolutely nothing to help the town, and I'll try to get that cut down.

[Xylthixlm]

Dark Ermac, what do you think the chance of Disciple Slayer being scum is?

In a game this size I expect about 25% of the players to be scum. That means that if you lynch a totally random player, your chance of lynching scum is about 25%.

Any

player with a higher chance of being scum is a better lynch than that - even if you have a 2 in 3 chance of being wrong.

[Mills]

All you've been doing since the beginning is bandwagon votes. Right now I believe that you are the most scummy, but I won't vote for you. I actually believe you to be a townie. It's hard to understand, but I've seen many games in which the idiot was lynched first, and just so happened to be town. So, everyone who is currently voting for DS: you can choose to either not lynch this townie, or you can lynch him anyway for fears of being taken advantage of by the mafia. Your choice.

This post seems to me like Dark Ermac KNOWS Disciple Slayer is a townie. How does he know this? Only the mafia is sure of everyone’s alignment. Everything Disciple Slayer has done so far looks suspicions. Yet, Dark Ermac, while admitting Disciple Slayer is acting scummy, he defends him. Why?

I got the same feeling reading DE's post initially but I was able to convince myself that it only

sounds

that way in the later sentences because in the first sentence he states that he believes DS is a townie (and carries out his post under that 'assumption' henceforth).

It was still a little concerning though given my earlier apprehensions about the random voting / random lynching comments. As I have already mentioned, I interpreted DE as suggesting a random lynch.

I might do a re-read of DE later tonight.

[Sangy]

I'm the most suspicious of Egruntz, but I'm not going to vote for him.

I don't like the idea of a No Lynch day one. It's stupid, and doesn't help the town at all. It means that the town can't analyze the Mafia's night killings and it means that they can't see who was on the final bandwagon to lynch. It limits the amount of information a town can have, and that's bad- information is always good for the town. To propose a no lynch, without a legitimate reason (like in C9 when you've got a claimed cop who can investigate and know you've got a doc) is anti-town and there's really no way of spinning it as otherwise.

Why I'm not voting Egruntz: Scum doesn't want to stand out. Egruntz, instead of saying "Hey, I was wrong" or "Well, sure, I see your logic but I disagree" keeps on pounding in this idea of a no lynch for night one. Maybe it's a bit WIFOM, but I don't think scum would want to put themselves in the spotlight stating something that is clearly controversial and antitown.

More later, probably tomorrow. If we have a snowday, you'll hear my thoughts on everyone, but dinner is calling, and so is my application for College of the Atlantic.

[liamcool]

Why I'm not voting Egruntz: Scum doesn't want to stand out. Egruntz, instead of saying "Hey, I was wrong" or "Well, sure, I see your logic but I disagree" keeps on pounding in this idea of a no lynch for night one. Maybe it's a bit WIFOM, but I don't think scum would want to put themselves in the spotlight stating something that is clearly controversial and antitown.

Or he could be continuously trying to convince us that No Lynch is the best move, if he is scum (hypothetically), trying to drill the motion into our heads.

[Patch15]

Right this is going to be orobably my first real post for Mafia. My suspicions lie at the moment with liamcool, nothing special as so much. But he just seems to be quoting a lot of people and saying that this could lead to why they are scum. Soooo:

Vote: liamcool

[The Fonz]

Xyzzy, answer me this. How many times have you seen an actual scum suggest a D1 no-lynch? How many times have you seen town do it?

My answer to that question is a) never and b) lots.

[Bookitty]

Actually, in a recently ended game that you replace-modded, Fonz, scum did suggest no-lynch day one. He turned out to be the Godfather.

[Phate]

I'd like you to clarify, Sangy. You're suspicious of him but you think he's probably town?

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

All you've been doing since the beginning is bandwagon votes. Right now I believe that you are the most scummy, but I won't vote for you. I actually believe you to be a townie. It's hard to understand, but I've seen many games in which the idiot was lynched first, and just so happened to be town. So, everyone who is currently voting for DS: you can choose to either not lynch this townie, or you can lynch him anyway for fears of being taken advantage of by the mafia. Your choice.

This post seems to me like Dark Ermac KNOWS Disciple Slayer is a townie. How does he know this? Only the mafia is sure of everyone’s alignment. Everything Disciple Slayer has done so far looks suspicions. Yet, Dark Ermac, while admitting Disciple Slayer is acting scummy, he defends him. Why?

I got the same feeling reading DE's post initially but I was able to convince myself that it only

sounds

that way in the later sentences because in the first sentence he states that he believes DS is a townie (and carries out his post under that 'assumption' henceforth).

I can see what Mills is saying here, but Dark Ermac's next post still sounds like he knows with absoloute certainty Disciple Slayer's status.

It's better to think about the vote than it is to just vote for them because they seem scummy.

Believe me when I say this: he's town

. I may not be 100% accurate, but from past experiences

I know this.

(bold mine)
As I said before,

only mafia

knows for certain who is mafia and who is town.
FoS Dark Ermac

[Mills]

Don't get me wrong - I think I was the first to jump on DE for some earlier post with the same problem - but I'm just not feeling it here. I don't think he's unequivocally saying that he knows that egruntz is town. I think he is saying that he

knows

(for lack of a better word). It's just something deep down inside that he

knows

to be true (or something he

thinks he knows

). He's just using the wrong word but its more the fault of the English language than his own.

[curiouskarmadog]

I am behind on this game(and a couple others)...I need to reply to Mills from pages ago and have not read the past two pages...(so

unvote

for now)...I will hopefully get caught back up in a day or 3.

[Sangy]

I'd like you to clarify, Sangy. You're suspicious of him but you think he's probably town?

Not exactly. I think his actions are suspicious, but I think scum would need to be awfully stupid to go so obviously against the grain. Really, I want opinions on that- I hate to play the 'newbie' card, but I haven't really seen enough games either way to know how valid that opinion is. It makes logical sense to me, but in the world of Mafia, it might not necessarily be the case, if that makes sense.

[liamcool]

Right this is going to be orobably my first real post for Mafia.

Do you mean your first post on this site or your first post in a Mafia game ever?

[PJ.]

I think egruntz is town. I really do.

I think Mills is trying to act town because of his ridiculously scummy actions early on, right now he is our best candidate for lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

Not exactly. I think his actions are suspicious, but I think scum would need to be awfully stupid to go so obviously against the grain. Really, I want opinions on that- I hate to play the 'newbie' card, but I haven't really seen enough games either way to know how valid that opinion is. It makes logical sense to me, but in the world of Mafia, it might not necessarily be the case, if that makes sense.

The end result of this logic is that you allow the scum to get away with very scummy things because they would be "awfully stupid" to do them. It's best to go after the people with the highest frequency of scumtells first. We don't have much information yet, so even minor tells can raise a person greatly in that order.

In general I consider 3 kinds of tells:
Tells caused by the difference in objective between town (searching) and scum (hiding); for example, lurking or only making uncontroversial contributions
Tells caused by the scum knowing who is scum and who is town; for example, jumping on the townie out of two bandwagons
Tells caused by the scum deliberately trying to manipulate the town; for example, arguing for a bad move like nolynch

None of these are necessarily conscious. Given two possible actions, scum will have more of a tendency to one because they're scum. Any act that hurts the town is scummy, even if the person who did it had a good reason.

[Mills]

Since posting has slowed down, and in the interest of moving towards consensus, could everyone please check in. If you are voting for DS, who else would you be willing to lynch (as say, a second or third preference). If you are not voting for DS, who would you want to see lynched? If you are DS, could you please post something.

[Xylthixlm]

My scumlist in order:
Disciple Slayer
curiouskarmadog, for voting Mills for a scummy reason then not saying what it is
Dark Ermac, for suggesting random voting then arguing against voting the scummiest people
egruntz, for advocating nolynch and general strange play

[PJ.]

Why Disciple Slayer?

[Xylthixlm]

Why Disciple Slayer?

Bandwagoning, bandwagoning, promising to give a reason then not giving one, voting Bookitty for an untrue reason.

[Xylthixlm]

The

most charitable interpretation

of Disciple Slayer's actions is that he's town but doesn't care about the game and just wants to get someone lynched.