Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!


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Post Post #250 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:01 am

Post by The Fonz »

Xylthixlm wrote:
In general I consider 3 kinds of tells:
Tells caused by the difference in objective between town (searching) and scum (hiding); for example, lurking or only making uncontroversial contributions
This is a pretty good one- though I'd distinguish between uncontroversial and non-useful: there are things which advance the town's cause without being controversial.
Tells caused by the scum knowing who is scum and who is town; for example, jumping on the townie out of two bandwagons
True, although WIFOMable.

Tells caused by the scum deliberately trying to manipulate the town; for example, arguing for a bad move like nolynch
Here's where you lose me. Since scum will never actually be able to convince towns to no-lynch D1, there is no possible advantage to scum in advocating it, plus it gets you attacked and draws attention to yourself. About the only reason scum might do this is because towns know this, and they want to wifom themselves into looking town.
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Post Post #251 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:29 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

The Fonz wrote:Here's where you lose me. Since scum will never actually be able to convince towns to no-lynch D1, there is no possible advantage to scum in advocating it, plus it gets you attacked and draws attention to yourself. About the only reason scum might do this is because towns know this, and they want to wifom themselves into looking town.
If doing action X is better for scum than for town, then perfect scum will suggest action X more often than townies will, with the difference (the tell) depending on the expected benefit. Real scum tend to do such things even more than perfect scum do.
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Post Post #252 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:43 am

Post by The Fonz »

That's simply untrue. Not proposing action X is superior to Proposing action X for scum from a game theory perspective. If there's no benefit to the scum of doing something, perfect scum won't do it.
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Post Post #253 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:35 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

If scum never do it, then it is not a tell. If it's not a tell, there is no penalty for doing it. If there is a benefit and no penalty, then scum will do it.
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Post Post #254 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:48 am

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But there is no benefit, since there is no way scum can possibly convince town to no-lynch day one since 'you must lynch day one' is pretty much the first thing newbies here learn, and is treated pretty much the same as a divine commandment.
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Post Post #255 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:03 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

The benefit of pushing nolynch is extremely small, so the associated tell is also extremely small... with optimal play. Real scum don't play optimally.
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Post Post #256 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:51 pm

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No. It's not small. It's nonexistent. Pushing nolynch actually has a negative average payoff for scum.
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Post Post #257 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:54 pm

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I have to agree with The Fonz here. Much of this discussion involves WIFOM. The scum would do things that are better for them sure, but in the case of most people here, that involves giving the town what seems to be town advice to them, even when it actually helps the scum. No lynch just helps scum in most cases, and the town should know that and ignore that advice.
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Post Post #258 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:10 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

The Fonz wrote:No. It's not small. It's nonexistent. Pushing nolynch actually has a negative average payoff for scum.
Do you think that town players act irrationally by considering scummy something that scum don't actually do, or do you think that scum players act irrationally by doing something with a negative average payoff?
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Post Post #259 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:18 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Oh, and as long as people are here arguing about this, how about answering Mills's last post too.
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Post Post #260 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:23 pm

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I've seen scum push no-lynch day one. The same discussion came about (no scum would be this stupid!) but then the scum did a variety of other stupid things and got himself lynched. No-lynch is beneficial to scum. PUSHING no-lynch hardly ever is.

I voted for egruntz in the first place because I felt it would underscore my seriousness about not wanting this discussion to become the primary focus of day one. I did not do it because I thought he was scum. (He may be scum. But I did not have sufficient evidence then, nor do I now, to lynch him.) Nonetheless he continued to push this, and we're still discussing it. The discussion is not helpful to town, and actually provides a lot of opportunities for scum to look "pro-town" by objecting to it, while not risking much in return.

We're not going to no-lynch. Egruntz arguing for it is not pro-town, but neither is it scummy necessarily. We need to get past this.

On a reread, Mills strikes me as extremely inconsistent on the whole. I disliked his bringing up of another game in order to attack Disciple Slayer (I think I said that already), provoking a nasty interchange that really gained town nothing. Bringing up other games is bad play, and has nothing to do with a player's alignment in THIS game.

Does some role speculation. Agrees with Xylthixlm that some players are posting without giving any opinions. Argues with me that he wasn't attacking Disciple Slayer because of another game. although Mills brought up the other game as a reason to do so in the first place. Complains because I didn't address his post regarding this (short answer, I didn't believe Mills, and I wanted to see what other people thought of his self-contradiction).

Attacks CKD for "gut" voting for him, saying "I didn't particularly want to bring it up since it would probably just be viewed as OMGUS" -- why would town care about how they were viewed, if they had a valid concern? Then when CKD responds, says:
Mills wrote:ckd, I know a lot of people have problems with gut votes, but I certainly don't. I like to make them too. Often I will give the reason and people will call me stupid and more often than not we will later find out I was correct. I know that the reasons are often a 'stretch' but I think it is important to give one anyway.
Which is oddly conciliatory considering his previous attitudes on the vote.

Attacks Dark Ermac for suggesting a random lynch (paraphrased heavily, but that's the gist of it). Then, when Dark Ermac is attacked for stating someone is definitely a townie, says this:
Mills wrote:Don't get me wrong - I think I was the first to jump on DE for some earlier post with the same problem - but I'm just not feeling it here. I don't think he's unequivocally saying that he knows that egruntz is town. I think he is saying that he knows (for lack of a better word). It's just something deep down inside that he knows to be true (or something he thinks he knows). He's just using the wrong word but its more the fault of the English language than his own.
I don't think anyone except Dark Ermac can know exactly what Dark Ermac meant there. Certainly in my view the second case against DE is less of a stretch than Mills' first case, but Mills defends him here, while attacking him fairly strongly in the first, less strong case. Asks for the town's input on top suspects, without giving his own (generally this looks to me like scum looking for ideas), and now we're up to the end of the thread.

Something isn't adding up here. So I'm going to
unvote; vote Mills
.
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Post Post #261 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:30 pm

Post by The Fonz »

Xylthixlm wrote:
The Fonz wrote:No. It's not small. It's nonexistent. Pushing nolynch actually has a negative average payoff for scum.
Do you think that town players act irrationally by considering scummy something that scum don't actually do, or do you think that scum players act irrationally by doing something with a negative average payoff?
The former.
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Post Post #262 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:38 pm

Post by Mills »

Yeah, Bookitty, you are so right. I haven't weighed in on anything. How did you get so good at this game?
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Post Post #263 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:52 pm

Post by xyzzy »

Fonz:

As Xyl said, anything that hurts the town is scummy, regardlss of intention. Motives are important, but they're difficult to determine day one; pure scumminess is the most effective technique. Obviously we'll probably be wrong, but we get great info, and lynching someone for not being protown is almost always good for us in endgame.
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Post Post #264 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:55 pm

Post by Mills »

I figured I should reply seriously for those that don't get sarcasm on the internet. :)
Bookitty wrote: On a reread, Mills strikes me as extremely inconsistent on the whole. I disliked his bringing up of another game in order to attack Disciple Slayer (I think I said that already), provoking a nasty interchange that really gained town nothing. Bringing up other games is bad play, and has nothing to do with a player's alignment in THIS game.
I already said that other games have nothing to do with alignment in this game. Thanks for agreeing with me. I'm not sure how a nasty interchange is suspicious because it 'gained town nothing'. I'm not sure it lost us anything either. I don't see how either of these add up to inconsistencies either. I, however, disagree that bringing up other games is bad play and I am surprised to see you say this since they can provide a wealth of meta-information among other things.
Bookitty wrote: Does some role speculation. Agrees with Xylthixlm that some players are posting without giving any opinions. Argues with me that he wasn't attacking Disciple Slayer because of another game. although Mills brought up the other game as a reason to do so in the first place. Complains because I didn't address his post regarding this (short answer, I didn't believe Mills, and I wanted to see what other people thought of his self-contradiction).
You're pushing it to call my comments 'role speculation'. Someone suggested I was a lyncher and I queried whether that were even possible. I am new to this particular site and it is hard for me to get a handle on things when the games don't stick to the forum rules. You are then incorrect on your further comments on DS. I will not bother to reiterate why - suffice to say that perhaps you should read my earlier posts more closely. As I write this, I wonder why I am bothering to reply to your post. You obviously won't read it because I can only assume you didn't read the last one.
Bookitty wrote: Attacks CKD for "gut" voting for him, saying "I didn't particularly want to bring it up since it would probably just be viewed as OMGUS" -- why would town care about how they were viewed, if they had a valid concern? Then when CKD responds, says:
Mills wrote:ckd, I know a lot of people have problems with gut votes, but I certainly don't. I like to make them too. Often I will give the reason and people will call me stupid and more often than not we will later find out I was correct. I know that the reasons are often a 'stretch' but I think it is important to give one anyway.
Which is oddly conciliatory considering his previous attitudes on the vote.
Again, you obviously fail at reading. As I stated previously, I have no problem with gut votes but I do have a problem when
absolutely no reason
is provided and when they are made my a player who has submitted little to no content in this thread to date (and I think ckd would agree with this assessment). Regardless, I didn't attack ckd, I just asked for his reason. He is perfectly entitled to his vote, and I didn't particularly feel that he needed to unvote it (he is welcome to put it back on if he thinks it best), I just wanted a reason!
Bookitty wrote: Attacks Dark Ermac for suggesting a random lynch (paraphrased heavily, but that's the gist of it). Then, when Dark Ermac is attacked for stating someone is definitely a townie, says this:
Mills wrote:Don't get me wrong - I think I was the first to jump on DE for some earlier post with the same problem - but I'm just not feeling it here. I don't think he's unequivocally saying that he knows that egruntz is town. I think he is saying that he knows (for lack of a better word). It's just something deep down inside that he knows to be true (or something he thinks he knows). He's just using the wrong word but its more the fault of the English language than his own.
I don't think anyone except Dark Ermac can know exactly what Dark Ermac meant there. Certainly in my view the second case against DE is less of a stretch than Mills' first case, but Mills defends him here, while attacking him fairly strongly in the first, less strong case. Asks for the town's input on top suspects, without giving his own (generally this looks to me like scum looking for ideas), and now we're up to the end of the thread.
No shit. Welome to Mafia - the game where no one can know exactly what anyone else is thinking unless they are the person thinking it. Welcome to a game built on the premise of making
judgement decisions
about what they are thinking or implying in their posts. This is the equivalent of calling me suspicious for playing the game of Mafia.
Bookitty wrote: Asks for the town's input on top suspects, without giving his own (generally this looks to me like scum looking for ideas), and now we're up to the end of the thread.
I have made my position perfectly clear on several players (DS, DE, ckd) and will be looking to do a re-read in the near future and see if I can drum anything else up. I can't say I am surprised that you bring this up however. No one likes a town leader but someone had to get this thread back on track.
Bookitty wrote: Something isn't adding up here. So I'm going to
unvote; vote Mills
.
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Post Post #265 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:56 pm

Post by The Fonz »

xyzzy wrote:Fonz:

As Xyl said, anything that hurts the town is scummy, regardlss of intention.
Disagree; and in any case, Egruntz' suggestion did not hurt the town. Had anyone agreed with him, maybe; but that was never going to happen.

Motives are important, but they're difficult to determine day one; pure scumminess is the most effective technique. Obviously we'll probably be wrong, but we get great info, and lynching someone for not being protown is almost always good for us in endgame.
Wrong. WRONG!

Lynching people because they disagree with you on game theory, when they are almost certain not to be doing so from any kind of ulterior motive, invariably hurts the town.
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Post Post #266 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:04 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Mills wrote:I already said that other games have nothing to do with alignment in this game. Thanks for agreeing with me. I'm not sure how a nasty interchange is suspicious because it 'gained town nothing'. I'm not sure it lost us anything either. I don't see how either of these add up to inconsistencies either. I, however, disagree that bringing up other games is bad play and I am surprised to see you say this since they can provide a wealth of meta-information among other things.
Bringing up ongoing games is against the rules. You do note that your posts were edited to leave out those references?
Mills wrote:You're pushing it to call my comments 'role speculation'. Someone suggested I was a lyncher and I queried whether that were even possible. I am new to this particular site and it is hard for me to get a handle on things when the games don't stick to the forum rules. You are then incorrect on your further comments on DS. I will not bother to reiterate why - suffice to say that perhaps you should read my earlier posts more closely. As I write this, I wonder why I am bothering to reply to your post. You obviously won't read it because I can only assume you didn't read the last one.
I invite anyone to reread Mills' posts in isolation as I did and note his shifts in behaviour. I did read your posts, as should be obvious by the fact that I did a post-by-post-analysis of them. Your response here is vague, to say the least.
Mills wrote:Again, you obviously fail at reading. As I stated previously, I have no problem with gut votes but I do have a problem when
absolutely no reason
is provided and when they are made my a player who has submitted little to no content in this thread to date (and I think ckd would agree with this assessment). Regardless, I didn't attack ckd, I just asked for his reason. He is perfectly entitled to his vote, and I didn't particularly feel that he needed to unvote it (he is welcome to put it back on if he thinks it best), I just wanted a reason!
Fair enough, but the difference in tone was notable, and I think not just to me.
Mills wrote:No shit. Welome to Mafia - the game where no one can know exactly what anyone else is thinking unless they are the person thinking it. Welcome to a game built on the premise of making
judgement decisions
about what they are thinking or implying in their posts. This is the equivalent of calling me suspicious for playing the game of Mafia.
I am noting the difference in tone between your previous, not very substantial, but sustained attack on Dark Ermac, compared with this one where you feel you know what Dark Ermac is trying to say and you are defending him. Your previous attack was not consistent with this defense. Did you think he was scum based on your previous attack? What allayed your suspicions so much that you felt you could answer for him on this more serious charge?
Mills wrote:I have made my position perfectly clear on several players (DS, DE, ckd) and will be looking to do a re-read in the near future and see if I can drum anything else up. I can't say I am surprised that you bring this up however. No one likes a town leader but someone had to get this thread back on track.
You're claiming the position of town leader now?
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Accuse someone of being overly conciliatory, and they resort to being nasty. Never fails.
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Post Post #267 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:10 pm

Post by Phate »

Suggesting a nolynch on D1 can be (but usually isn't) scummy, and it's antitown. Pushing a nolynch isn't scummy, but it's antitown. Suggesting that we lynch someone that's antitown but not scummy is both antitown and scummy.

We should not be lynching antitown players. We should be lynching protown players. I completely agree with the Fonz on this one.
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Post Post #268 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:11 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Phate wrote:We should not be lynching antitown players. We should be lynching protown players. I completely agree with the Fonz on this one.
I believe this to be a typo but it still made me laugh.
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Post Post #269 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:12 pm

Post by Phate »

xD. Meant:

We should not be lynching antitown players. We should be lynching proscum players.
I will fuck up your name and gender. Deal with it.

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Post Post #270 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:13 pm

Post by Mills »

Yeah Bookitty, continue to make misrepresented arguments. It's A++ scum-hunting! How do I get as good at this game as you?
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Post Post #271 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:13 pm

Post by Mills »

Phate wrote:xD. Meant:

We should not be lynching antitown players. We should be lynching proscum players.

Oh sure. :P
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Post Post #272 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:19 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Mills wrote:Yeah Bookitty, continue to make misrepresented arguments. It's A++ scum-hunting! How do I get as good at this game as you?
I wouldn't say I am one of the better players on the site, but I would advise you to read some more games, lose some of the arrogance, and try not to take every attack personally. Angry, defensive players always make themselves look guilty, whether they are or not.

I realise you were just being nasty, but it deserved a serious answer.
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Post Post #273 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:21 pm

Post by Mills »

Bookitty wrote:
Mills wrote:Yeah Bookitty, continue to make misrepresented arguments. It's A++ scum-hunting! How do I get as good at this game as you?
Angry, defensive players always make themselves look guilty, whether they are or not.
I know but maybe if a sufficient number of pro-town angry, defensive players get lynched then people will stop assuming it to be a scum tell? Maybe I'm doing some common good. :?
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Post Post #274 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:24 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Sadly, it's also a very common scumtell. Town tends to be calmer because they can win even if they're lynched. They have no scumbuddies to protect. Scum tends to melt down because when they die every post they have made is scoured and interpreted for connections, lack of connections, content. They're RIGHT to fear death, and they do fear it more than town.

So, why did you react so angrily and with such condescension, Mills?
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