Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[armlx]

I'm in on the L-Unit train.

/barn....

[armlx]

The only reason we could possibly have more members is we are better and everyone knows it, amirite?

[armlx]

Vote: shaft.ed

for making the obvious Radiohead joke and generally being a smartarse.

Vote Ergo

for hating on Radiohead. Jerk.

[armlx]

Man, 2 people beat me to it. I was gonna vote him on the basis that avatar is clearly a mafia ploy to subconsciously plan seeds of innocence in out head.

Or it's just a hamster thats way to cute. That too.

[armlx]

I reconsidered my vote on account of the hamster. In the end the cute^15 got the best of me.

[armlx]

What can I say, his evil ploy has worked. He has softened my heart. I hope his evil mind control tactics don't reach everyone else too or his sneaky mafia ways will take over.

[armlx]

I thought the show of choice was General Hospital?

[armlx]

Did my comment just go over your heads, or do anyone of you watch House?

[armlx]

Dr. House does not approve of Grey's Anatomy, but he does indeed approve of "examining" coma patients, and just so happens to do around the time of day General Hospital is on.

[armlx]

Must keep up barnacle status.

Vote Adele

at least until we get a logical reason the mafia would be in the first group. Sounds like diversion to me.

[armlx]

Vote: armlx

for following right behind Pooky's vote when one was enough pressure for the situation.

While as an objective observer I can see what you are saying, since when the hell has one vote been pressure? Did i miss a major strategy update the past year?

[armlx]

Actually, Trust, I'm fairly sure non-commitment is the most scummy thing you can do.

However, my sick reads tell me you aren't scum. Neither is Ergo.

Unvote

I'm about 80% sure on Adel & Shaft. 20% on Volkan. 60% Pooky. 40% Karmadog.

Guess I'll do this

Vote curiouskarmadog

Smacking Pooky too hard for the wrong reasons. Could be double scum tell (makes valid arguement vs other scum that isn't enough to get him lynched, good set up for both), rather lynch him and find out.

[armlx]

Those percents were how sure I was they were scum. A lot of it was just instinct, with some logic.

ergo has been all for advancing discussion, which is very pro-town.

TG being clear to me falls more under the instinct side based on his posts.

Pooky is being semi-disruptive and snipy, though that's just who he is if I remember. Still suspicious as it seems a little different from exactly how I remember, hence the 60%.

Others later.

[armlx]

Shaft: Your posts have enough to them to look significant but have no relevant infi really. Very Scummy. Also a lot just instinct here

Adel's "logic" causing all the confusion is where I get that 80% scummy from, though 80% is prolly a bit high for what I actually mean. Still, I'll give that one a bit more time before I drop the axe.

Volkan is all instinct and a teeny bit the fact he diverged first form the Pooky group. But not much.

Dean needs to post more for me to get a full read, but I'm leaning pro-town here. For similar reasons to TG, which is more or less just a general vibe of them working off minimal information aka townie.

[armlx]

Yeah, the latching onto my reasoning and bandwagonning is also more stuff that leads to the 80% number I gave for scuminess.

[armlx]

Shaft: Your posts have enough to them to look significant but have no relevant infi really. Very Scummy. Also a lot just instinct here

If that's your feeling about my posts fine. But I would argue there are other people in this game posting more words and of less import than myself. I haven't really had that many lengthy posts thus far.

Yes, but yours try to appear relevant. that would be the distinction.

Jive Machine needs to post more. I forgot he existed.

[armlx]

Volkan is all instinct and a teeny bit the fact he diverged first form the Pooky group. But not much.

How do you figure I am "all instinct"? What does that even mean?

Moreover, why is my refusal to join LU a scumtell?

I know you only gave me 20%, but I can't see how the "all instinct" remark applies to me, or why not joining LU is a scumtell at all.

You aren't. My read on you, however, is 90% instinct based. Your divergence LU is a "town tell" as you drew a lot of attention to yourself with it.

[armlx]

vote JiveMachine

the time for pettiness is over.

It is time for bilateral action against the common enemy.

D=

That's a really productive answer....

Unvote, Vote JiveMachine

[armlx]

One scum wont vote for the other even when he's digging his own grave, but tries to look suspicious of him to distance himself. How cute.

It's such a fricking rough dilemma to decided which one we should hang up first. There's more room for JiveMachine to build on and maybe be (very lurky, very scummy) town, but the way shaft.ed is squirming is so funny I almost want to watch more of it.

Nah

Unvote, Vote shaft.ed

[armlx]

One scum wont vote for the other even when he's digging his own grave, but tries to look suspicious of him to distance himself. How cute.

It's such a fricking rough dilemma to decided which one we should hang up first. There's more room for JiveMachine to build on and maybe be (very lurky, very scummy) town, but the way shaft.ed is squirming is so funny I almost want to watch more of it.

Nah

Unvote, Vote shaft.ed

So you suspect Adel?

My my my. We now have a rodeo.

I was refering to the fact Jive only FOS'ed shaft instead of voting him when he is clearly the best lead.

The percentages roughly equate to:
100%: Gotten by a cop/watcher/etc
80%: Good Lynch Candidate
60%: Voteable for pressure reasons
40%: Look for more patterns, FOSable
20%: 1-2 tells, good for now
0%: Not voting for you today.

They were carefully made to total 300%, which you may note is 3 (the typical number of mafia in a mini) times 100%.

Current %ages.

Shaft: 80%
Jive: 60%
Pooky: 40%
Adel: 40%
Karmadog: 40% (if Pooky is scum, number increases)
Dean Harper: 20%
Volkan: 20%
TG & Ergo: 0%

The some of the formerly scummy (Adel and Pooky namely) moved down as we have real lynch targets to go after now. List is mostly in order of scumminess for the people I actually find scummy.

[armlx]

Still not buying it.

[armlx]

Wow, just when I thought we had hit max scummy, someone decides to make us have a decision. I'm sticking with my vote for Shaft right now, but Jive is rising to match his scumminess very quickly. Nice backtrack.

[armlx]

Hence what I meant by nice back track.

Jive is fidgetting under pressure, lurking, flip flipping, and bandwagonning in was as to not leave traces on vote counts.

Your posts acted like they said something and just didn't, tried to press wagons, and especially your reaction to pressure for the first 4ish posts.

[armlx]

The post at the top of this page just gives it all away.

Unvote, Vote Jive Machine

I've only seen one scenario where that reaction turned out to be pro-town, and the person that did it was a newbie idiot at the time (Hint: It may have been me).

[armlx]

L-1, should prolly start saying stuff.

Early game, where I was probably the scummiest, I was just experimenting with some different things to pass the "random" voting stage. Namely acting as scummy as possible without ensuring my lynch. The goal was to set up a scenario where I drew the most reaction and therefore most information possible.

With Adele jumping in early on such a low threshold as well as following all my votes and the TG votes early is really suspicious. It seems at though he is trying to be on every wagon he can be with enough logic to support it that it seems like he is lying low. I still think Jive Machine's one post about being alive helping everyone more is a massive scum tell, and that Adel has shown enough semi-insight as to leave alive past D1, but he is rising back to rival shafted on my list.

[armlx]

I wasn't.

(In reference to following me on wagons)

Actually, Trust, I'm fairly sure non-commitment is the most scummy thing you can do.

However, my sick reads tell me you aren't scum. Neither is Ergo.

Unvote

Guess I'll do this

Vote curiouskarmadog

Smacking Pooky too hard for the wrong reasons. Could be double scum tell (makes valid arguement vs other scum that isn't enough to get him lynched, good set up for both), rather lynch him and find out.

I like those reason -- much better than my current ones.

unvote, vote:curiouskarmadog

There's that. Then there's the post where Adel says "It's all in you mind" and follows my vote. The one time I was on a wagon after Adel was in response to that person's response to the wagon (JiveMachine, responded to 2 votes with D=....) rather than this direct barnacling.

[armlx]

Basically barning Pooky and my TG non-vote were the 2 things before the game moved past random.

[armlx]

I thought CKD's vote on me from a couple pages ago was still there.

Fake claiming a tactic I used isn't really fake claiming. I guess I was just a little more cautious with the tactic than Adel, which fuels my growing case against him as it seems anyone with pro-town intents doing that would be more careful not to cross the line.

[armlx]

cross what line? why are you at -1? why can't you keep your story straight?

Cross the line between scummy actions getting you lynched and them simply garnering responses. I'm at -1 because all the scummy people are on your team (coincidence). My story has been straight. Early game I acted moderately scummy to draw responses, responded with a fairly detailed analysis based on my observations and some gut feelings on intangible things I had observed. Basically, I did everything you said you did, except when you did it the actions were legitimately scummy (able to start harmful wagons past the early/random phase) and you didn't follow them up with any sort of logical analysis.

[armlx]

On the TG forgetting thing: Honestly, I'm confused about where he forgot about it. I remembered about it b/c pre-game I did a lot of thought about how best to break the nightless aspect, including looking back at no-exit mafia by Yaw (same basic idea or less, 12 players).

[armlx]

Jive refused to give reasonable answers to any questions before and had shown what IMO is a major scum tell. Very worth of L-1ing.

[armlx]

CDK's reaction to the vote from TG definitely warrants some noting.

Also, on the no content thing: You can't read people who dont post, but it's easy to ID scummy behavior in those who do.

Screw meta-reads too. I remember from a bit before I left when Fritz/BabyJ did whatever the hell they wanted and people didnt care. When they were scum, they died most often from another scum group killing them. Very awkward scenarios ensue when you assume behavior is normal for someone.

[armlx]

Damn it, had long post typed out and then accidentally refreshed page.

To sum it up:

Shaft.ed is less scummy now that I look at his posts separately from everyone elses. They just seems awkwardly placed earlier, which could just be a avaliability time issue.

I stick by my early read on volkan being town for the same reasons. For I second I thought maybe he was distancing from Pooky, but then when I went back to check for lynch rules in the first posts I realized it didnt explicitly say anywhere the bad docs could converse outside the thread.

CKD's reaction to one vote was was out of proportion.

JiveMachine is doing the same BS. If it comes down to it I'ld rather lynch him than a random.

Adel keeps changing up styles, which is pro-town if I remember old games involving Fritzler and sometimes Pooky, but the wagon trailing i noticed early is kinda sketchy. Third highest scum on list behind CKD and Jive (not sure on those order).

LU:

Pooky I'ld want to wait 1-2 more days before passing definite judgment. Seems productive but aggressive.

Dean needs to post. What I said about Jive applies here, though Dean hasn't done as much sniping from his lurker hole.

TG seems town based on post style and progressively informed actions.

Ergo needs to post again. See what I said about Dean.

I'm holding my vote until absolutely necessary so we can get more discussion, but if I had to vote right now I'ld say TJM, but with more discussion I'm fairly sure CKD can move on up the list. As for LU, I obviously can't comment on me, but among the others I'ld rather vote Ergo or Dean than random deadline lynch.

[armlx]

I'ld be willing to sub in as mod assuming there wasn't some rule about conflicts of interest and what not. I'm fairly sure I won't need a replacement at this rate.

[armlx]

I guess I agree with that. Unfortunate. Nightless games are really interesting.

[armlx]

And so spoke the prophet Jagger "If you try sometimes, you might find, you get what you need".

[armlx]

Just what makes you so sure? I'm actually 90% sure you have posted no more reason than your "hunch", unless I missed it.

[armlx]

TG: I made an analytical post last page. I'll clarify some stuff.

I realize now what I saw in shaft.ed's posts early on was that they seemed to be way too subtly inciting especially post 106. I couldn't put my finger on exactly what it was then, but I knew I saw something.

Volkan I'm saying is town for now, but that simply means he is not a good lynch at all today. Things may change with more discussion, but he has passed the D1 test.

CKD I'm really not liking. I know I'm guilty of this a lot, but it feels like his votes/aggression have just been thrown at wherever the wind is blowing, without any sense of trying to progress discussion with these actions (sometimes its ok to do this, but his seem so awkwardly timed for that purpose). And his over reaction to TG's vote is a massive problem for me (again).

Pooky is being Pooky (from what I remember), which passes the D1 test for me.

TG: I believe you are pro-town because of the progressive knowledge buidling in your posts. Scum usually start at some level of comprehension which tends to show.

Adel I don't know what to think. Like I said, changing play styles infi was a pro-town tell, but my sample size of BJ and Fritz is very biased. Some of the things he does in the name of "prompting discussion" are very sketchy. Like I said, there's a fine line between scummy enough to push discussion and scummy enough to push lynching and Adel has been very close to crossing the line.

Also, before any of the lurkers post, I would like 1 of Adel/CKD to remove their vote from me so we don't have someone coming in and messing up a perfectly good discussion. If someone else votes me they can return their vote to me and lynch, I'ld just rather have someone I feel has had more time analyzing the game making final decisions and what not rather than someone randomly screwing the game up b/c they feel like they need to take some action.

And lurkers need to freaking post

[armlx]

so then by saying I put words in Jive's mouth was bull shit? And you already think I am scummy because you have your vote on me, so no reason imply that you think I am scummy....

Why am a scummy exactly? Because I voted on a hunch? How do you know I voted on a hunch, oh yeah, I told you. Scummy indeed.

hey vollkan, does TG's bullshit change his % in your eyes?

sorry for the triple post, but bull shit tends to piss me off.

another question TG, are you saying that my vote on Jive was a BW? So then what is(was) my vote on armix?

Thats a combination of posts 298-300. Also at the tail end of your post before this it starts as well. And the fact it was a triple post implies the posts were extremely hasty, implying an extremely aggressive reaction.

Over reaction is scummy as it implies you have a lot more on the line with the lynch, which a scum would (especially in a nightless game, losing 1 of 2 or 3 members is a much bigger blow than losing one of 7 or 8). It also implies that you are being a lot more wary of single votes on you, which is scummy for the same reasons.

[armlx]

if I should be lynched today..DAY 2 CAN SOMEONE HOLD HIS ASS TO THE FIRE ABOUT THIS. over reacting = scum is crap. It is a stretch in logic to form a case that doesnt exist..."he tripled posted, so he must have more on the line because he is scum"....

you are an experienced player...you cant think of any other reasons people might "overreact"?

If I should hang, I am curious, what you are going to say day 2 when people look over your silly post and want to know if your opinion has changed?

My vote is solid here..anyone you is pushing for a lynch Day 1 using the "oh look, he is over reacting" bit is obviously scum.

when I get more time (for producing a PbP is timely) I will post one.

There's one other reason I can think of for overreactions, and it's that you are a completely incompetent newbie. You offered to do a PbP, so that is blown out of the water.

Also, it's not even just the triple posts. Did you read what you said in those? It doesn't even make sense, you use the word bull shit actual infi times.

You claim that voting on a hunch isn't scummy b/c you told use you were doing it. Because honesty makes everything better.

You try to rope people doing actual analysis into your emotions.

You try to dismiss claims of BWing by citing one counter example, and your counter example is one of the things TG said was scummy about you.

Your lack of real logic in that post/posts is extremely disturbing. If you were at L-1 and people refused to listen to you, I feel differently. But at 1 vote with no one else looking like they would follow it.....

[armlx]

Dear god, if that wasn't an over reaction I would love to see what is.

Scum try to push over reactions on people who have actual reason to over react in order to rush a lynch that's already well on it's way. You were under absolutely no pressure at the point you flipped out.

If you aren't scum CKD, you are playing quite bad. Letting emotion get in the way of logic is not the way to win as town.

Also, please tell me what your vote is based on then. I have asked already, and you have provided no evidence beyond claiming my pointing out your scummy reactions and OMGUSing me.

[armlx]

I love how you ignore my questions.

have you ever as scum tried to push that a townie was overreacting to get them lynched? Why are you ignoring that question?

here is another one you are ignoring, is there a completed game where scum overreacted and outed himself that has lead you to believe in this "scum tend to overreact" theory. Why are you ignoring this question?

Please tell me how I am OMGUSing you?..I believe it is the other way around sir.

as for my case...your voting habits, YOUR omgus, your pushing of a completely crap theory (which you cant seem to back up), your avoidance of those questions, when I ask you those question you resort to insult ("you are playing quite bad"), and lastly...my hunch.

Sorry about not posting about older games. I was trying to look before I made a post on those. However, it's been a while since I last played and I'm having difficulty remembering specifics of most games. However, as I said in my last post, the instances where scum pushed overreacting were when there was an established wagon on the person when they over reacted, and when there wasn't one most of the time that person was scum.

You are OMGUSing me as you changed your vote from a hunch vote to a OMG def die scum vote as soon as I pointed out your reaction. I on the other hand never responded to your vote as scummy until you started doing other things that added up, which is not OMGUSing.

Double posting on its own isn't over reacting, however in that situation it clearly was.

[armlx]

sweet christ....HAVE YOU AS SCUM pushed the "overreacting bit" on a townie..please quit avoiding the question. Surely you can remeber if you ever done it.

if you can locate the game where you saw scum overreact I would greatly appreciate it...as it stands, you are pushing the overreacting thing, without proving that you have actually seen overreacting scum before. currently it is your theory....or people would call it your "hunch".

I changed my vote because you were pushing the overreacting bit with is completely crap (so far you have not proving that you ahve ever seen overracting scum). I saw this and called you on it. You say "OMGUS", I say I found scum.

"Double posting on its own isn't over reacting, however in that situation it clearly was. "

says you....

Never to my knowledge as scum have I pushed a lynch with over reacting as my main point. However, I know for a fact I used to as scum over react to scenarios where it was extremely inappropriate. I actually believe I can reference one of these. It was Mafiascum Avatars mafia. There are several more if I actually remembered exactly every game I was ever in.

[armlx]

I have been lynched so many times on silly scum driven accusations of overreacting it is not even funny.

Maybe it would help if you didn't play into their hands with your histrionics. In addition, said behavior hinders town because it's out of the ordinary and would detract from finding scum.

Definitely. It's the same thing (albeit less disruptive) as blatantly lying or bandwagonning without purpse all the time and then saying people are scummy for wanting to lynch you when you do. The thing is when everyone else over reacts/ lies/ bandwagons without reason, its a scum tell and you are trying to create a meta situation for you that detracts from the ability of players to create an environment for logical analysis. Theres a reason players who create these scenarios are well known, and its because of their infamy.

[armlx]

Vollkan:

The use of profanity is very relevant, as typically it implies a much higher level of aggitation. Same with triple posting, which again implies aggitation to the point you can't properly form your ideas (CKD's triple post was all within about 10 minutes of each other).

As for metaing CKD, no I have not. I really have no response to that other than to say I don't typically meta on usual scum tells unless I've seen that person act that way in many games I have been in or they are a new player making standard newbie mistakes as doing so tend to promote bad behavior and let people slide by far too often as well as making standard scum hunting procedures a lot harder.

[armlx]

Messing up quotes tag demonstrates a frame of mind of someone who is too excited to reread and preview their post before posting to make sure that it is in the correct format. Much like someone who forgot to get all of their points into one (or even two posts) this is scummy. What are you so excited about TG?

Obviously I am joking here.

Today is the end of the month so I am busy typing reports. I will attempt (no promises) to do a PbP on “my” team today as it is pretty obvious who on “your” team I think is scum. I am actually to the point of not giving a shit if you guys hang me today or not. If you hang me because armix based his vote on a triple post and the usage of the term “bullshit” then you deserve what you get. Overreaction = scummy is ridiculous and if you did a meta on me, you would see that in most of my games I play with my heart on my sleeve because I have got nothing to hide. Armix keeps saying it his bad town play…so is it a good scum play then? Are you voting me because you think I am scum or because I “overreacted” which you label has a bad town play. I feel like this situation is great for the town at this point. It has spawned conversation and shows you really are pushing a vote based on absolutely nothing. Why? If I am playing badly as town by distracting from true scum hunting, why are you focusing on me and not truly scum hunting. You are already padding your defense tomorrow “well he was playing badly as town so we are really that much better off”. We are here to find and lynch scum armix, not people you label as “bad” townies.

You just completely sluff off my point. Please reread my points.

Scum are much more invested in their role due to the their limited numbers and such view small vote counts as much larger threats to their team, prompting over reacting a lot of the time.

It's bad scum play too. Thats why it's a tell. It just happens to be a bad town play because it's 90% of the time a bad scum play.

Also note the fact I have yet to vote for you, though as soon as an absolute deadline is posted I will. There's no need to rush a lynch when there's still lots of time to discuss.

[armlx]

Vollkan, here's my counter arguement for you trying to shred my knowledge of scum tells. Go back and find me examples of people blatantly lying leading to them being town. What about repeated 3rd votes on wagons and other things that are typically scummy. I was under the impression over reaction was an established scum tell. At least it was last time I was playing.

It's terrible play, and scum tend to play a lot worse than town just for psycological reasons.

[armlx]

I would say it's most players that do get over reactive are scum, though not all players over react to begin with. Hence my attack on CKD.

[armlx]

I'm fairly sure at least 1 scum was on my wagon. I'm gonna stick where my heart is, especially as I haven't seen any similar action from CKD in other games that I've looked at. Guess it's about time to push the chips in the pot.

As for Beep messing up game mechs, I'm fairly sure thats a true thing especially as he didn't get why Pooky didn't vote me (on same team and what not).

Vote CKD

[armlx]

Vote CKD

also no comment on Beep's 8 posts in a row? Clearly he must be scum, right?

He wasn't evidently upset and swearing at everyone during those 8 posts.

[armlx]

*cricket*

[armlx]

Reminding you that 1-vote ties on the deadline will be decided by dice.

Yeah, definitely better than the straight random it appears ABR wanted to do.

[armlx]

Meh, no reason to draw it out at this point.

Unvote, Vote Beep!

Yeah, go scum, -1 townie, etc.

[armlx]

I thought I had punted this game so bad for us.

I tried to bus shaft.ed early based on poor logic and failed. I got myself D1 lynched, practically clearing CKD (seriously, all my posts on him were fairly OMGUS'y).

Seriously, those lists I made were unreal telling. 1 buddy really suspicious, 1 not?

Good job shaft.ed for pulling this one out in the end.