Mini 539: Game over

[Incognito]

lol another cross-post.

[Incognito]

Oh and P.S. I've been checking out Apy's newbie game just for the heck of it and it turns out he dipped out when he started receiving some pressure. He dipped out to the point of being replaced and by the looks of it, he was scum.

Coincidence? =]

[Xtoxm]

AND THESE DAMN CPU QUOTA ERRORS AREN'T HELPING

ASDF

Yeh it's pissing me off, I think it's happening to me as much as half the time I try to check the forums today.

[Xtoxm]

That's interesting Incog, adds more to my suspicion of him.

This is getting a bit boring waiting. Surely we are ready to lynch DS/Apyadg...Replacements will be ok coming in on day 2 wont they?

[kuribo]

Oh and P.S. I've been checking out Apy's newbie game just for the heck of it and it turns out he dipped out when he started receiving some pressure. He dipped out to the point of being replaced and by the looks of it, he was scum.

Coincidence? =]

Newbie games can't be assumed to mean anything, since a player's playstyle will (hopefully) change over time.

[Xtoxm]

Oh and P.S. I've been checking out Apy's newbie game just for the heck of it and it turns out he dipped out when he started receiving some pressure. He dipped out to the point of being replaced and by the looks of it, he was scum.

Coincidence? =]

Newbie games can't be assumed to mean anything, since a player's playstyle will (hopefully) change over time.

Yeh but there is no time diff is there, the games are being played simultaneously

[Incognito]

Oh and P.S. I've been checking out Apy's newbie game just for the heck of it and it turns out he dipped out when he started receiving some pressure. He dipped out to the point of being replaced and by the looks of it, he was scum.

Coincidence? =]

Newbie games can't be assumed to mean anything, since a player's playstyle will (hopefully) change over time.

Yeh but there is no time diff is there, the games are being played simultaneously

Yeah, kuribo, I would agree with you under other circumstances. However, given the fact that Apyadg's Newbie game was running at the exact same time as this Mini, his playstyle would remain relatively the same.

Also, he lied about forgetting about this game. That's reason enough for me to have him as today's lynch.

[Ythill]

He dipped out to the point of being replaced and by the looks of it, he was scum.

What do you mean by "by the looks of it?" How does his previous play as scum suggest his alignment in this game without having his previous play as town for comparison?

Also, he lied about forgetting about this game.

What evidence supports this?

[Incognito]

He dipped out to the point of being replaced and by the looks of it, he was scum.

What do you mean by "by the looks of it?" How does his previous play as scum suggest his alignment in this game without having his previous play as town for comparison?

The game was just wrapping up when I made that post, so I was going by soupfly's comment which stated that the town had won the game. Now that the game has officially ended, it's a certainty that he was scum in that game. You can see the game for yourself: Newbie 531. More specifically I would pay attention to the area of the game just before Apyadg goes AWOL and gets replaced.

I know that it's not completely solid evidence because like you said, we have no comparison to how he might have played as town if he was under a high pressure situation that questioned his alignment, but I just wanted to present some evidence that would at least suggest that Apy could have been doing the same thing within our game.

Also, he lied about forgetting about this game.

What evidence supports this?

I've gone through my evidence previously a few posts back in response to you but just to reiterate, both Xtoxm and I confirmed that we had each seen Apyadg browsing this forum (Little Italy specifically) on a number of occasions. Obviously he could have been observing other ongoing games within this same forum but I'd find it hard to believe that our game (which was still fairly active at the time and was therefore near the top of the forum when I first mentioned this information) would go completely unnoticed from his eyesight. The first thing he mentioned when he did finally post here again was something like: sorry guys, I forgot about this game.

Lynch all liars?

[Ythill]

I just wanted to present some evidence that would at least suggest that Apy could have been doing the same thing within our game.

I think that it only suggests that Apy stops posting under pressure. Though it is a gambler's fallacy, his confirmation as scum also suggests that he is town in this game, statistically speaking.

Forgive my supposition if you simply misspoke yourself, but why would you

want

to find evindence against Apy specifically?

I've gone through my evidence previously a few posts back in response to you but just to reiterate, both Xtoxm and I confirmed that we had each seen Apyadg browsing this forum...

I didn't remember you specifically calling it a lie. Was feeling a litte lazy and didn't look back at what you said. Sorry 'bout that and thanks for reiterating.

The agreement of two unconfirmed roles is hardly proof in a game where there's at least two scum alive, but I'll grant you a strong circumstantial case here. Would he have registered as browsing Little Italy if he'd direct-linked to other games in the forum? Were the instances of his browsing consistant throughout the period of absence or, to put it another way, is it possible he forgot about the game temporarily?

And no, I don't believe in LAL. If I did, I'd have been pushing SSK long ago. I think people lie for various strategic and personal reasons whether they are scum or town.

[kuribo]

Jesus, guys, enough with the meta.

[Xtoxm]

Jesus, guys, enough with the meta.

Why? Whats wrong with meta? I think it can be quite effective.

[Ythill]

Jesus, guys, enough with the meta.

Point taken. I know you dislike it and have tried to minimize, but it's also the only content discussion going on right now. Not to mention that its really all we have to go on regarding Apy.

His newest disappearance is certainly making me wonder about him.

[Xtoxm]

Lol, kurbio, that made me laugh

[kuribo]

That's just it, meta doesn't always tell you anything.

[Shteven]

I'm not a huge fan of meta either. The similarities here are pretty obvious, but what isn't obvious is the secondary assertion: the his behavior was related to his role, and not simply him as a player. A lot of players who are new/abandon games under pressure aren't really doing it because of their role, but rather how well they play the game.

It's easy and pretty natural to take an attack in mafia personally, it can take some practice to distance yourself from your role, whether it's town or scum. Also, some people lose interest in a failing cause; and whether you're town or scum, if you're lynched, you lose - on a personal level. Your team may still win, but for the newer player, that means your involvement is over and feels like a loss.

The gambler's fallacy is just that - a fallacy. It's especially interesting here though because this is not a 50/50 chance. Mafia roles, just by the numbers, are about 25%. So to get the 25% chance twice is unlikely, but calling it unlikely is just as much of a fallacy as saying he's town. Really, if the roles are random as they should be, just ignore this concept entirely.

[Ythill]

The gambler's fallacy is just that - a fallacy.

Yeah, I know. Hence the term "suggests" rather than "proves". Hitting two 25%s in a row isn't impossible (or even highly unlikley), but it is less likely than the alternatives. Heck, hitting 25% once is less likely than the alternatives.

I'm still not comfortable participating in an Apy lynch based on what's been posted. Our best strategy with him is to prod and replace. DS is a scummier (and therefore better) option and his lynch is supported by a wider range of players, which makes me feel safer about it.

That said, the flakiness on this site is quite frustrating. I'm getting pretty bored with the pace of this game. I'm okay with waiting for replacements but see no need to drag my own feet anymore. So I might as well

vote: Disciple Slayer

.

DS has been known to check in after being prodded in-thread by players. Maybe a bigger wagon will inspire him to defend himself.

Mod: please prod Apyadg and Disciple Slayer.

[Xtoxm]

I was under the impression we had reached a consensus for DS lynch, and we are just waiting for the replacements...Which seems pretty hard to come by. I've had enough waiting too...I had decided I wanted to hammer DS so I could impose a reasonable time limit for his defense, but it seems now he's not coming back, I may as well too

unvote vote DS

.

By sounds of it I don't think either of those prods will be very effective.

I am suspicious of Apy too, and I was before the meta thing too, i'm pretty sure I said.

[Ythill]

Some folks

are

waiting for replacements. At least one other is waiting for DS to return. Personally, I was waiting to get a read on Claus and for the chance to verify my reads on charter/Ho1den/Apy. I feel like I've gotten all I'm going to get along those lines, other than conducting a thorough investigation of the replacements out of the gate. I was also waiting for a more reasonable defense from Incog, which has come.

Still, I have no problem with others' waiting.

[Xtoxm]

I'll post an updated and more detailed list of what I think of everyone:

Town:

Ythill - Very confident
Kuribo
Justin

MOTR:

Claus
Charter
Ho1den
Shteven - Leaning town
Incog - Probably the one that has interested me most. Sometimes he says something that screams "town", sometimes "I'm scum". I really can't tell.

Mafia:

SSK
DS
Apyadg

Just cos I felt like it.

[Xtoxm]

Btw - If anyone was meta-ing on my newbie game, it just finished. Although I feel my play has changed a lot since the start of it...Heck, it's changed a lot since the start of this one too!

[Justin Playfair]

Okay, guess I’ll weigh in on this.

First on the meta. I’ll never say never, but I haven’t used a meta attack yet and I don’t like them much when other people do. I accept it’s part of the game, but it doesn’t seem pure to me somehow. Maybe as I play more I’ll change my mind. In this specific case I think it’s pretty useless, and I say that being about as suspicious of Apyadg as I could possibly be. If you only have one other game to go by, and Apyadg flaked in that one after he came under pressure, and he flaked in this one when he came under pressure, the only thing you can say for sure is that he flakes under pressure. Even if he’s scum in the other game it wouldn’t tell us anything meaningful about his behavior here because you don’t have a control case. In my opinion this, if it has any impact on our deliberations here at all, works ever so marginally in Apyadg’s favor. If he’s flaking out in other places then there’s every possibility he’s just a flake.

Still think he’s a bad guy, though, for the other reasons.

Now onto Disciple Slayer. I would really like to hear something from him before placing my vote. I am particularly reluctant about the possibility of lynching anyone before they have a chance to claim. But I doubt even that would turn me to Apyadg as today’s best choice at this point. In consideration of Ythill’s post above I’m going to wait until tomorrow before I place my vote.

[Ythill]

I’m going to wait until tomorrow before I place my vote.

Probably a good play. If my count is accurate, your vote would put him @ L-1 with a couple of "suspicious characters" (Incog and Apy) not voting for him. Though I'm not sure what he could say to change my mind about him, I really wish DS would say

something

in his defense.

[Xtoxm]

I’m going to wait until tomorrow before I place my vote.

Probably a good play. If my count is accurate, your vote would put him @ L-1 with a couple of "suspicious characters" (Incog and Apy) not voting for him. Though I'm not sure what he could say to change my mind about him, I really wish DS would say

something

in his defense.

Yeah..He's not coming off my "mafia" list, no matter what he says...So i'm not really bothered if he doesn't defend himself.

[Incognito]

You guys do realize that he's not coming back right?