Newbie 549: (Game Over)

[BlckKnght]

/pong

[BlckKnght]

Well, since the day should be started now that we have seven confirms:

Vote: Battousai

for combining a nickname from a samurai anime and an avatar from a ninja anime.

[BlckKnght]

Vote Russo

Might as well lynch someone, right?

That is some remarkably scummy logic, and a reckless lynch -1 vote too.

Unvote. Vote Powerful Wizard IRL.

I wasn't crazy about Rosso Carne's early bandwagon and demand for a claim, but it didn't seem quite this scummy. He's just an impatient jerk.

[BlckKnght]

Ok, these bandwagons are going a little too fast for me. Seriously, it's only page one and we have two people at L-1.

Unvote. FoS: Powerful Wizard IRL

. I may put my vote back on after more discussion, as this is where my main suspicion lies.

but putting a 3rd vote on someone like that is inexcusable.

unvote, vote wizard

I hope I'm not the only one who sees a contradiction here. As an IC I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume this isn't really an OMGUS vote, but rather some heavy handed pressure. But I think we need more discussion, not a fast lynching which is likely to help the scum.

FomS: Rosso Carne

ting: Your vote on PWIRL was random. Will you confirm it?

Batousai: What is your take on things so far?

[BlckKnght]

Well, from what I know, what Russo did was a bad play. Reason being is that if he wasn't scum and neither was knight, then scum could have pilled on vote 3 and 4 and I'm out on the first page.

An L-2 vote like the one he put on you isn't a bad play with this game's setup. Yes, both of the mafia could have joined the bandwagon and lynched you, but then the rest of us would then have a clear idea of who to lynch the next two days.

The L-1 votes, as you correctly point out, are an entirely different matter. That's practically begging for a quick hammer. Lets get

at least

one more page filled before lynching.

Because it doesn't seem like much of a strategy for the scum to each put the other at L-1, I doubt that Rosso and PWIRL are both scum. That said, they are each individually suspicious.

[BlckKnght]

Because it doesn't seem like much of a strategy for the scum to each put the other at L-1, I doubt that Rosso and PWIRL are both scum. That said, they are each individually suspicious.

I read through everything, and I thought things over, and I'd have to disagree. Townies aren't very likely to hammer, see, so if Ross and PWIRL are the mafia, and they L-1 each other, they're actually quite safe from lynching, seeing as no one will hammer them.

Perhaps they will be safe in the immediate short term, but any L-1 vote is certain to draw a lot of attention. Given that the early game is usually just (semi-)random voting, it seems pretty silly for the scum to bring everyone's attention upon themselves right off the bat.

Sir Tornado, as the other IC, what do you think of the early votes?

UNVOTE

I might have made a newb move and made myself look bad. I doubt I can win anyone over, seeing how this game is all about suspicion.

Sure the game is about suspicion. Is there any reason we shouldn't suspect you? Try to come up with a defense (or at least suggest reasons that others might be more suspicious than you).

Here's some motivation:

Vote: PWIRL

That way its 2vs1 on day 2 and the town has very little to go on. Then its a simple 3 person lylo situation where the town has no information beyond that of a cop.

*changed day 3 to 2, I believe that is what you meant

No, it's 2 town vs 1 mafia on day three:

Code: Select all

Day 1:   5 vs 2, after a foolish early L-1 vote, one of the mafia hammers a townie for a quick lynch
Night 1: 4 vs 2, the mafia NK a townie
Day 2:   3 vs 2, LYLO, town lynches the hammerer from Day 1, probably with the other mafia member joining in to throw his partner under a bus
Night 2: 3 vs 1, another townie is NKed
Day 3:   2 vs 1, LYLO

Rosso's point was that on day 3 the last mafia member is in good shape, since there was never a need for him to do something suspicious on the previous days.

[BlckKnght]

Here's some motivation: Vote: PWIRL

Wait, I can't count.

Unvote PWIRL

.

For some reason I was thinking niltiacjoan's vote had been on him. L-2 is enough pressure for now.

[BlckKnght]

Mod: Please prod Sir Tornado

and anyone else you feel appropriate. I'm not really a fan of talking to myself.

To try to keep things lively, I'll

Vote: Rosso Carne

, for his recklessness. Rosso, were you convinced that neither Battousai, niltiacjoan nor Sir Tornado would hammer PWIRL, or did you really want to lynch him on page 1? Even if he does turn out to be scum, more discussion will mean more chances for us to catch his scumbuddy on Day 2.

My new vote doesn't quite mean my primary suspicion has changed.

Confirm FoS: Powerful Wizard IRL

who still needs to make a defense.

[BlckKnght]

Hey mod, could we have a

vote count?

I'm in class now, so this is going to be short, but anyway, I think the scummiest person so far is Ross. His actions and his words are far too contradictory.

unvote. vote:Rosso Carne

Er, I think that takes him to L-1, which is a bit farther than I want to go just yet.

Unvote for the moment

, and second the request for an

official vote count

[BlckKnght]

Since we still haven't heard any defense (and I know the vote count now):

Vote: PWIRL

Unlike Rosso I'm not 100% sold on the Wiz's scumminess. Certainly he's not made pro-town moves, but they may have been newbie mistakes rather than sabotage.

[BlckKnght]

I would be very uncomfortable lynching PWIRL until he (or a replacement) posts more and at least attempts to defend himself. He's (narrowly) the scummiest player right now based on his actions, but he might just be new to the game.

Rosso on the other hand I could support lynching sooner, and without as much back and forth debate. If the quieter players gave reasonable arguments backing up new votes against him, I'll switch my vote his way again (I most recently unvoted due to miscounting the votes and thinking he was again at L-1).

Here is my argument for why a Rosso lynch would be reasonable: His reckless and continuing aggression against PWIRL could have harmed the town earlier, and might yet in the future. Unless he had made very solid reads of several players, Putting the L-1 vote on PWIRL was dangerous. Rosso did it so early that I don't think he could be sure no one would hammer. I'm unhappy with Rosso's actions even while I partly agree with him that PWIRL looks scummy. I'm just not sure that I trust Rosso to have definitively judged between newbieness and scumminess. A mild exaggeration of his position could be phrased "Lynch all Newbies," and that's no policy I'd support.

My gut feeling still says that only one of the two above is scum, but I'm not sure that this point can be logically argued without turning into WIFOM. I'd love to hear more discussion of the possibilities though.

Some targeted questions/suggestions:

PWIRL: I suggest that you read the wiki and see if you can understand why several of us think your actions have been harmful to the town. Then please post your thoughts, countering any arguments you feel are weak or pointing out places where other players have also acted against the town's interests. Its important for you to know that even if you are lynched incorrectly, you can still win with the town if we beat the scum. If you can ask some good questions we might ID them based on their reactions to you.

Rosso: If Battousai or somebody else had hammered PWIRL on page 1 and he was revealed as scum, who would you guess his scumbuddy to be, based on the posts prior to then, and the votes on the two wagons? What would you think if instead he turned out to be pro-town? You've complained that our slower pace has allowed the scum to distance themselves from each other, which I'll admit as a possibility. It may be that I don't understand distancing very well though, since it seems to me we will have at least as much information about his buddy if we lynch him on page 4. Perhaps you can link an example of what turned out to be distancing in another game?

ting and Battousai: What are your impressions of my two suspects? What do you think about of each other, and the other players?

I need to get some sleep now, but I'll re-read tomorrow and probably have some questions for the others.

[BlckKnght]

I don't like wagons. xD

Ok, I'll bite. Why don't you like them? Putting a few votes on a player can pressure them into making mistakes revealing their nature as scum or not. If nobody is willing to vote, nothing will ever happen in the game.

Granted, we've has some wagons go farther then they should have.

What do you think of the two suspects I pointed out above? Is PWIRL just a newbie who made a mistake, or is he obviously scum (or both)? Is Rosso pushing too hard for a PWIRL lynch?

You have posted several times, but you have not really contributed anything to the discussion yet. Consider reading on the wiki about strategy and post analysis, and try to come up with something.

[BlckKnght]

And to the meat, I dont understand why I'm scummy, except that you just continuously say im scummy.

I want to lynch someone who did a wrong, made a booboo, almost made a quicklynch.

quicklynches do NOT help the town, lynching quicklynchers are lynching people who do not help the town, and the only people that do not help the town are SCUM!

What is scummy in your actions is that you are pushing hard for a lynch of a player who is obviously a newbie. Quite probably a scum newbie (which is why I'm voting along with you) , but still somebody who might give misleading tells or even harm the town out of ignorance.

WHEN I TURNED AROUND IT WAS BECAUSE WIZZY DID A BLATANTLY SCUMMY MOVE. WHEN YOU SEE SCUM, YOU LYNCH

SCUM

DEAD!!!!!!

I agree with both of your points, but your argument begs the key question:

Was PWIRL actually scum, or just a newbie who made a really bad couple of posts?

I tend to agree with you on the answer, but I find your unwillingness to discuss or even consider other possibilities unhelpful to the extent of possibly being anti-town. Furthermore, a fast lynch of scum isn't in the town's benefit if they still end up lynching that scum later in the day. What's your hurry?

And now for something completely different.

I've been reading the thread some more to see if I could spot anything that might identify another scum in our group. Outside of the PWIRL/Rosso debate, I find myself suspicious of niltiacjoan. Here's my PBPA showing why:

Vote: Ross for putting a second vote on someone without any proof I can see.

First vote is at least nominally non-random. Taking Rosso's vote seriously is a newbie tell, but alignment neutral.

xD Wow, two bandwagons in the first two pages. Umm... I'm gonna go ahead and Unvote for the moment.
I think maybe PWIRL had been told lynches helped the town? I'unno. I've been told that a few times by my friends. xD I'm just a lynch hippie.

A good call, unvoting a fast moving bandwagon, but the rest of the post starts a pattern of wishy-washy behavior.

Post 48 was a stuffed animal, and no real content.

Post 59 was "I don't like wagons. xD", which I challenged and got in reply:

I don't like wagons. xD

Ok, I'll bite. Why don't you like them? Putting a few votes on a player can pressure them into making mistakes revealing their nature as scum or not. If nobody is willing to vote, nothing will ever happen in the game.

Granted, we've has some wagons go farther then they should have.

What do you think of the two suspects I pointed out above? Is PWIRL just a newbie who made a mistake, or is he obviously scum (or both)? Is Rosso pushing too hard for a PWIRL lynch?

You have posted several times, but you have not really contributed anything to the discussion yet. Consider reading on the wiki about strategy and post analysis, and try to come up with something.

xD In my games with my friends, if a bandwagon kicks off, the person it's on gets about 10 votes on him/her in the same IRL day. xD So, to me "bandwagon" doesn't mean pressure, it means lynch.

I'm new myself, so I don't really know. PWIRL made a bad move, but I don't really know.

As for Rosso, I think he's angry with us. xD
-goes off to read wiki-

As an aside, I think bandwagoning is safe from Vote 2 through Vote L-(the number of mafia). For a 7 player game this is pretty short: only the second vote on a bandwagon is reasonably safe. Bigger games will have bigger bandwagons. Our game got a bit out of control early on with two at L-1.

Back on topic, what I find notable in niltiacjoan's reply is more wishy-washy thinking, with "I don't really know" repeated twice.

According to the tells and stuff, Rosso and PWIRL seem most scummy.
I don't think they're buddies, though. Rosso seems a little to heated for that.
I'm not sure I like how PWIRL went ahead and called it a newb move. He might be covering up.
As for Rosso, I don't like how he's contradicted himself, but he could just be impulsive as was stated on page 1.

I can't fault the logic here, since it is mostly repeated from previous posts by me (and to a lesser extent Rosso, ting and battousai). Each player should be able to think for themselves. At least ask some questions!

After being called on her wishy-washy suspicions by ting, we got the following non-answer:

@niltic.

According to the tells and stuff, Rosso and PWIRL seem most scummy.
I don't think they're buddies, though. Rosso seems a little to heated for that.

You've called them both scummyish, but you don't think that both of them are scum. That means you think only one of them is mafia. Who do you most think it is?

-head/desk-
I don't know. They scored the same and each had something extra to recommend them as scum.
-diceroll- One is Rosso, two is PWIRL.
<1>d<2>

Randomly deciding who to vote at this stage (even between two suspects) is really not a good idea. A vote for PWIRL would have been L-1 again! Fortunately the dice tags weren't used correctly (leave out the < and > characters in the future).

After saying "Rats" in post 71 about the dice (but still not voting!), the only post left is:

There goes our chance of getting a defense from PWIRL. xD

This continues her pattern of more or less content-free posts.

Here's what I would like from niltiacjoan, in order to defuse my suspicions a bit:

1. Ask some questions. Surely there is something that Rosso or PWIRL's replacement could answer that would help you to decide between them. You don't need to limit your questions to them either. If you have questions for me or anyone else about any of our posts, please ask.

2. Do some analysis of your own. Don't just repeat the arguments that have been posted already. For example, you agreed with my suggestion that only one of PWIRL and Rosso are scum. Why do you think this is the case, other than the fact that I said so? Following a leader or crowd is scum behavior.

3. Vote, or at least indicate a willingness to vote based on solid reasoning. I don't encourage an L-1 vote until at least the middle of next week when all the players will be around again, but anything short of that is fair game if you have some reasoning behind it, and you can FoS with impunity.

4. Finally, be willing to have an opinion. Rosso may be an extreme example of opinionated play (and he may get lynched for it), but wishy-washy reasoning can be an even bigger scum tell than overaggressiveness.

My vote is pretty well settled on one of two targets today, but that won't stop me from pointing a

FoS: niltiacjean

.

[BlckKnght]

Oh, one more thing I forgot to add to my big post:

Welcome alvinz95. You've replaced into a pretty awkward situation, so I hope you can contribute something. If you're town, remember that you can win even if we lynch you, so try to help out as much as you can while you're around.

[BlckKnght]

/is prodded

Confirm Vote: alvinz95

I'm afraid that PWIRL's scuminess has been too much for alvinz to overcome, and I'm ready to lynch him today. I'm still not thrilled by Rosso's single mindedness regarding this lynch, but it is the best one we have.

[BlckKnght]

dont understand how you can attack me BECAUSE i attack a scummy person.

I just reread the last few days worth of posts and this one stuck out at me.

I distinguish between two broad types of attacks:

Fist there are attacks that pressure somebody to defend themselves, possibly revealing hints to their alignment, but which don't aim for a lynch immediately. I don't think these kinds of attacks are ever harmful to the town.

Entirely different are attacks focused on lynching somebody ASAP. This is ok if the relevant questions have already been asked and answered (and if nobody voted with the intention of lynching days would never end). But early on, especially early on day 1, I don't think attacking this way is appropriate, because less discussion means the town will have less opportunity to catch scum. If anyone had followed Rosso's lead and hammered PWIRL on page one, half the players would have gone through day one with only (semi-)random votes.

I do recognize that it is not always clear when somebody places a vote whether it is a pressure vote, or if they really want that lynch to happen. It may not be unreasonable to bluff, and cast a pressure vote while implying you are more serious.

My criticism of Rosso's early L-1 vote on PWIRL is because his attack is definitely in the second category. His posts (both at the time and since) clearly suggest that he wants to lynch PWIRL (now alvinz95) as soon as possible.

[BlckKnght]

Mod: please prod Sir Tornado and niltiacjoan and ting

.

Will do

Perhaps when the currently non-voting members show up the lynch will happen.

I've made a number of points in my previous posts, and to be honest I don't have anything new to add at this point. I will be paying attention to see if any new issues are raised, but don't hold off hammering to hear from me (unless you have a specific question).

[BlckKnght]

Bah! Go town, only one scum left!

[BlckKnght]

Awesome! Way to go Town.

I feel pretty good about my play in this game, sticking with the PWIRL/alvinz95 lynch, FoSing niltiacjoan and drawing her night kill. I definitely should have noticed and responded to the implied connection in the post alvinz made, though, shortly before we lynched him.

I still think Rosso's play style is crazy, but he was very consistent in it and it turned out that he was correct.