Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Jitsu]

also, if we do have a 4 person mafia team, I doubt that AA would be the GF.

Isn't it still possible that Sudo could be a normal mafia? I think it highly unlikely, but still possible. Sudo is the only person left in the game you do not have a result on, correct?

I wouldn't read too much into the fact that we've not found a GF. I've seen plenty of mini normals that didn't have one, and I believe I've seen games where the GF was not identified as such upon death.

From the reveal and your guilty on Jerub, the probability is very high that Jerub is scum. Presuming he is, I REALLY hope the game will be over.

A cop + a doc vs. three mafia goons is mostly balanced (it might slightly favor the town, but just barely). Four mafia goons vs. a doc and a cop seems pretty unbalanced in favor of scum, and three goons + a GF vs. a doc and a cop seems really unbalanced. The town has to find four scum, one of whom is investigation immune, and you only have a cop and doctor to help? I don't believe that.

If the game isn't over, I don't think it will be difficult to guess who the final three will be, and in that situation, I can guess who will have to make the decision that decides the game.

I am going for the high percentage play here, as dictated by the strategy.

Vote: Jerub

Any last words?

[curiouskarmadog]

yeah Sudo is the only one I dont have a investigation on.

I think the game will be over once we lnch Jerb, but if we are not and you go into another day tomorrow..a.) I will probably be dead and b.) I dont think people should lay too heavily upon my innocent investigation.

at any rate, I think you are right Jitsu...a 4 person mafia team with a GF seems way to unbalanced.

good game all!

[Jitsu]

The only thing that's bugging me a little bit is that I've not seen a lot of 3 goon vs. cop + doc setups. I have seen one or two, but it's not common. Still though, I think it is mostly balanced because one of the options for a C9 setup is doc + cop vs. 2 goons, and extrapolating that to 12 players gives doc + cop vs. 3 goons, which is reasonable.

About the town:

If the town had a cop other than CKD, they should already have counterclaimed, so I'm assuming CKD is the cop, if we have one. If CKD is lying about being the cop, then I extremely doubt we have 4 scum, as 4 scum vs. doc would be ridiculously unbalanced (see below). And if we only have 3 scum (1 more alive) and CKD is the last one, the strategy is going to get him on D6 anyway.

Similarly, it seems highly unlikely there is another Doc in the town. Also, we probably don't have an SK or Vig, given only 3 kills in 4 nights. Since an unrevealed Cop, Doc, SK, or Vig seems to be rather unlikely, this suggests that there is not an abundance of town power roles.

Now onto the scum:

About the GF: If we have a 3-person mafia group, then the only realistic choice for the GF is Setael (meaning she was not revealed as the GF on death). If CKD is telling the truth, then Korlash and Jerub cannot be a GF, because CKD had guilties on them. If CKD is lying and is a GF, then why have a GF at all (if there is no Cop)? And as I said, if there is a 4 person scum team, I cannot see how we could have a GF + 3 goons vs. Doc + Cop, as it would seem to be really unbalanced. A GF + 2 goons vs. Doc + Cop setup is pretty common.

Another possibility is that Korlash really was a Mafia RB and was not revealed as such (or that Jerub is something other than a simple goon). Remember, NabNab has not revealed Korlash or Setael as Goons, just as mafia -- they could be anything.

If we do have a four person mafia team, I still think Jerub is likely scum and CKD is likely innocent. If CKD is lying, the balance is awful (a single Doc vs. 4 mafia?) Therefore, the final scum would be AA or Sudo. Since CKD has an innocent on AA and balance-wise it seems CKD should be innocent, I would believe Sudo to be the final scum if there are four.

Either way, I'm feeling pretty good about my vote on Jerub.

[jerubbaal]

The only explanation I can think of is the miller thing. CKD's investigations have been pretty confirmable, and Sudo's the only one we don't have an investigation on, so he must be the last scum.

Vote: Sudo

[Jitsu]

The only explanation I can think of is the miller thing. CKD's investigations have been pretty confirmable, and Sudo's the only one we don't have an investigation on, so he must be the last scum.

Vote: Sudo

This sounds to me like a scum backed into a corner. I just hope you're the last one.

[curiouskarmadog]

Mod: please prod Sudo and AA

[Jitsu]

Mod: please prod Sudo and AA

Wow, I didn't realize that it's been that long since they posted.

[curiouskarmadog]

they might not have realized the game has restarted

[Jitsu]

Oh, I kind of forgot amidst everything else, but Jerub, why don't you claim since you're at L-1?

Will it be vanilla townie with some secret miller sauce on the side?

[jerubbaal]

As far as I know, I'm vanilla.

[jerubbaal]

Ah heck, this is silly. We decided to make the gamble with the cop claim because we hadn't killed any power roles yet and, if there was an active cop still going, the game was pretty much lost anyway. If the claim worked, we get a mislynch, Set gets lynched, and then we get down to the endgame w/ myself and two others. As long as they are the right people, I shouldn't have too much trouble winning.

Anyhow, props to Adel for nailing it pretty hard right away. We actually felt we had to kill you, despite it being a fairly easy lynch the next day, because if your analysis of the situation got out, we were toast. Should have done it earlier. The blocked kill was when we went after Jitsu, who was considered a confirmed townie by most. It was between him and CKD, so I guess we made the wrong choice there. Game would have been pretty different. With one more kill and the cop dead, I think we would have had a strong chance.

Good game to all, I tried to come up with a scenario where we should lynch both cops to figure it out, but they were all stupid and useless. I was dead as soon as CKD was revealed to be the real cop, even if I got him lynched. Hope to play with you all in the future.

Vote: Jer

[Setael]

It was worth a shot

[Jitsu]

Great game everyone. I think the mafia did pretty well for most of the game and made things interesting up until the end. I really enjoyed this game and had a lot of fun playing with all of you. Thanks to NabNab and everyone playing for making my first ever game of mafia a memorable one.

I'll give a final recap of the game from my perspective later tonight (AFTER the mod has confirmed the game is over)

So none of the mafia had any special roles?

In case people haven't figured it out yet, I was a lowly Vanilla Townie with no powers.

[Setael]

Nope. That's why we thought there was a chance there was no cop. And even if there was, if he hadn't investigated jerub we still might have pulled it off.

I feel like the old guy at the end of Scooby Doo.

[curiouskarmadog]

and here I was so sure I was protected Night 1...guess the world does not revolve around me...did you guys have a GF?

[jerubbaal]

Nah, no power roles. I do think that this scenario is slanted toward the town fairly well. If we can't find the cop early, this game is going to run long and the advantage goes to the town. We hadn't hit the cop or had a claim after three days, so we made the gambit. In the end, I think it would have come out exactly the same. We still needed two mislynches, and we weren't going to get them with an active cop.

I've seen this scenario or similar quite a few times, but it almost always includes an SK. I think the SK helps the scum considerably, if by nothing else speeding up the game. At the end there, I just kept figuring through the possible lynches and scenarios by which we could still win, and there really weren't many. Maybe I'm just being a sore loser, but a game with only one active killing role as well as cop and doc seems to favor the town pretty heavily.

[Setael]

Probably just feels that way because you were stuck with me and Korlash.

[Sudo_Nym]

Damn, I missed it. This is first time since my last post I've been able to log in without getting greyscreened, and the game is already over.

Hang my luck, will you?

[GunslingerKB]

Good game town. The first night I missteped and protected Korlash over Mexal, noob mistake on my part. I seriously had Mexal as my gut instinct, then changed it last second, stupid me. Then, I protected Jitsu, and when I checked back in on the game saw that you were still alive and that there wasn't a NK. So I guess Jitsu was indeed targeted?

Good game, sorry for my nubyness.

This couldn't wait?
-Mod

[NabakovNabakov]

First and Final Vote Count of Day Five

jerubbaal (3):

curiouskarmadog, Jitsu, jerubbaal

Not Voting (2):

Sudo_Nym, Abstract Acutary

"Allow me to end the suspense." Jerubbaal says as he places the final vote on himself.

"I'm the last scum, I even have the gun to prove it." With an impeccable sense of drama, he whips out a carefully concealed pistol and points it at the 4 exhausted townspeople. An end of the chain which had once kept it in his cell visibly dangles from the butt.

"You win when only the Mafia aligned players are alive!" jerubbaal shouts to the heavens; to The Voice, to nobody. "Or when nothing can prevent this!"

He shoots Sudo_Nym.

"

Sudo_Nym - Townie

, killed Twilight Five."

Abstract Actuary makes a run for jerubbaal's pistol but trips, skidding before jerubbaal's feet.

"We're in LyLo now, aren't we?!"

Jerubbaal brutally kicks Abstract Actuary in the nose. Blood covers the toe of his shoe. Another shot, then gore.

"

Abstract Actuary - Townie

, killed Twilight Five."

"Why aren't you stopping this?" curiouskarmadog asks of The Voice.

"The rules stop where entertainment begins." comes the simple reply. As a means of punctuation, the silhouettes in the spectator's booth applaud the goings on in the arena.

"But you've already lost. We lynched you." Jitsu protests.

"Do I looked lynched?"

"

Jitsu - Townie

, killed Twilight Five."

Jerubbaal turns his focus to curiouskarmadog. He is so focused, in fact, that he fails to notice the noose descending behind him.




"Have you decided?" The Voice asks for the final time.

"Yes"
"Yes"




Sneering, jerubbaal draws back the trigger on his battered pistol. The bullet hits a moving curiouskarmadog square in the shoulder. A fraction of a second later, curiouskarmadog's shoulder hits jerrubbaal square in the chest.

The trap door opens.

"

jerubbaal - Mafia

, lynched Day Five."

Using jerubbaal's intended noose as support, curiouskarmadog manages to stand.

"Congratulations to the

Town

for winning the game!"

He stoops to pick up jerubbaal's discarded pistol.

"And a particular mention to

curiouskarmadog - Cop

for being this game's MVP!"

Even with only one good arm, he is sure to take careful aim.

[Mr. Flay]

... I have no idea what just happened.

Except that somehow, in the end, we won. Well done town, and kudos to jerubbaal and Setael for leading me on a merry chase.

[jerubbaal]

Your flavor is kinda disturbed, NabNab, not gonna lie.

[curiouskarmadog]

thanks Nab..it was a good game

[NabakovNabakov]

Your flavor is kinda disturbed, NabNab, not gonna lie.

All in good fun.

My next game is going to be much more chill (Achewood Mafia!). I just wanted to push the limits of "normal" flavor.

Breaking character-

Great game everybody. For those of you I haven't played with already, I look forward to meeting you on the field of honor sometime.

Here's how Night Choices broke down:

N1
Cop (CKD)- Korlash (guilty)
Doc (Gunslinger)- Korlash
Mafia (jerubbaal)- Mexal

N2
Cop (CKD)- Jitsu (innocent)
Doc (Gunslinger... I think)- Jitsu
Mafia (jerubbaal)- Jitsu (failed)

N3
Cop (CKD)- jerubbaal (guilty)
Doc (Oman)- CKD
Mafia (Satael)- Adel

N4
Cop (CKD)- AA (innocent)
Doc (Oman)- CKD
Mafia (jerubbaal)- Oman

[curiouskarmadog]

pretty good mod..let me know when your next game is...would love to be in it.