Mini 539: Game over

[Claus]

Ouch! Watch the hair! Watch the hair!

Good game, go scum!

[Shteven]

Some obvious things I can agree with: yeah, no sk. Very unlikely to have two doctors, so it's a scum group with one dead now.

As for looking over the list, it's a good idea, but I'd go about it a slightly different way. Scum usually hinge their bets on such lists; so it's likely the the other scum are spread out on the list. Focusing on just the nice or just the naughty won't help much. Same probably goes for the middle of the road ones, but I suppose that's a personal opinion. What I would do is look at the comments he left on each, and see if his reasoning for that person seems to be faked. Whose summary doesn't match their reality?

A lot harder to see, but hey, I didn't say I had all the answers

Bit late to be rereading now, but I'll give some thoughts on who to go for this weekend.

@MOD:

Ythill's role said vigilante, without mention of one-shot. Is it true he only had one shot, or could he kill multiple nights?

[Ythill]

Woot! Go town!

[kuribo]

Okay, looking over Claus' Naughty / Nice list, here are some impressions I get.

He put DS on the Naughty list. While we did wind up lynching DS, Claus (unlike us) obviously knew that DS was town.

Ythill is on the nice list. Another obvious one--- why stir up trouble suspecting Ythill when you can NK him?

Xtoxm is somehow on the nice list, despite spotty play which I've been pointing out since yesterday. Hm...

Incognito is on the naughty list, and Claus stated that they had once been scum together. Firstly, it seems unlikely for lightning to strike twice. Even without that meta argument, I think leading us down that road would be stupid, even if you're bussing him.

The naughtiness against Justin is fairly vague.

I'm wondering if either of the inactives are scum.

[kuribo]

Oh, and it's fairly obvious that I was wrong about Ythill. Clearly he was the vig.

[Xtoxm]

Also, the fact that only two people died last night, we could probably state pretty confidently that there's not an SK in the game. The doctor died on Day 1 so nobody could have been protected and so I think the maximum amount of possible deaths happened last night.

Or SK could be any one of the 4 inactives. I actually think there is, as Vig is a strong town role to be having in a game like this. Or the SK could have targeted Claus/Ythill.

[Xtoxm]

About Claus's Naughty and nice list (assuming 3 scum) I think there is probably one scum in the nice list and one in the naughty.

[Incognito]

Incognito is on the naughty list, and Claus stated that they had once been scum together. Firstly, it seems unlikely for lightning to strike twice. Even without that meta argument, I think leading us down that road would be stupid, even if you're bussing him.

This is actually incorrect. Claus stated that I was scum in one of his previous games but not that we (he and I) were scum together.

The naughtiness against Justin is fairly vague.

While I agree that the naughtiness against Justin is vague, I agree with Ythill's closing summary about how the long, drawn-out argument between Claus and Justin seemed pretty realistic and that would lead me to believe that they probably aren't scum with one another.

[kuribo]

This is actually incorrect. Claus stated that I was scum in one of his previous games but not that we (he and I) were scum together.

I see. My apology for the misconception. (not sarcastic this time)

[kuribo]

Or SK could be any one of the 4 inactives. I actually think there is, as Vig is a strong town role to be having in a game like this. Or the SK could have targeted Claus/Ythill.

Are you an SK?

[Xtoxm]

Or SK could be any one of the 4 inactives. I actually think there is, as Vig is a strong town role to be having in a game like this. Or the SK could have targeted Claus/Ythill.

Are you an SK?

Now that's a silly question, cos the answer is no no matter my role.

[Xtoxm]

Hey, I found a guy who said he'd cross replace with me! Gorgon should be joining soon

I PMed the mod.

[kuribo]

ugh, like this game isn't already having continuity problems what with people dropping out, replacing in, and going idle

[Incognito]

Eh? I think he means that someone will be replacing one of the inactives in our game while Xtoxm follows suit and replaces one of the inactives in Gorgon's game.

[Xtoxm]

Eh? I think he means that someone will be replacing one of the inactives in our game while Xtoxm follows suit and replaces one of the inactives in Gorgon's game.

Yeh that's what I meant. I was pretty clear...

[Shteven]

Incognito is on the naughty list, and Claus stated that they had once been scum together. Firstly, it seems unlikely for lightning to strike twice. Even without that meta argument, I think leading us down that road would be stupid, even if you're bussing him.

I realize even you don't put much stock in this probability argument, but it's inherently flawed. If you flip a coin and get heads, what's the chance of you getting heads on the next flip? Still 50%. One game/coin flip does not effect the other in any way.

[Shteven]

Something that struck me as odd was Ythill's target being Claus. He was first attacking me early day 1, then moved on to incognito for a solid length of time. If he made any other major strikes, please remind me. But when he was briefly listing his vig targets, it was Incognito first, then me. By nightfall, he didn't choose either of these. It could be that his targets were always a lie, meant to deceive mafia, or could be that he changed his mind going into the night. Night decisions are always best made at night, when you have the complete information of the day.

I wonder if he was trying to protect us? I.e. the mafia wouldn't kill incognito if they feared a double kill, and to a lesser extent, wouldn't kill his FOS if they thought he may go with his second choice. It does seem pretty odd to go after us for so long and then reverse so completely at the end, though, so this may just be a crackpot theory.

[Shteven]

Also, the fact that only two people died last night, we could probably state pretty confidently that there's not an SK in the game. The doctor died on Day 1 so nobody could have been protected and so I think the maximum amount of possible deaths happened last night.

Or SK could be any one of the 4 inactives. I actually think there is, as Vig is a strong town role to be having in a game like this. Or the SK could have targeted Claus/Ythill.

Vig is a strong role, but that doesn't mean you have to have an SK to balance it. We could have no cop, we could have mafia roleblockers, or it could even be 1 cop/1vig/1doc vs 3 scum. I wouldn't consider that unbalanced, really. Vigs can often kill town. I wish we hadn't lost Ythill so early from his gambit, but I'll admit he killed scum and thus the gambit was worth it. I'd rather he killed two scum, but in any case, he was successful. Claiming to only have one shot was a pretty clever idea.

Anyways, I don't think talking about a possible SK is really going to help things, only distract. It will be easily proven night 2, with the vig dead and the mafia making one kill.

[Xtoxm]

Maybe he just thought Claus when scummy when night ended. It did sound like he had got less suspicious of Incog, though.

[Xtoxm]

Also, the fact that only two people died last night, we could probably state pretty confidently that there's not an SK in the game. The doctor died on Day 1 so nobody could have been protected and so I think the maximum amount of possible deaths happened last night.

Or SK could be any one of the 4 inactives. I actually think there is, as Vig is a strong town role to be having in a game like this. Or the SK could have targeted Claus/Ythill.

Vig is a strong role, but that doesn't mean you have to have an SK to balance it. We could have no cop, we could have mafia roleblockers, or it could even be 1 cop/1vig/1doc vs 3 scum. I wouldn't consider that unbalanced, really. Vigs can often kill town. I wish we hadn't lost Ythill so early from his gambit, but I'll admit he killed scum and thus the gambit was worth it. I'd rather he killed two scum, but in any case, he was successful. Claiming to only have one shot was a pretty clever idea.

Anyways, I don't think talking about a possible SK is really going to help things, only distract. It will be easily proven night 2, with the vig dead and the mafia making one kill.

Yeh I guess. I still think there's one. But i'll leave it.

[kuribo]

Eh? I think he means that someone will be replacing one of the inactives in our game while Xtoxm follows suit and replaces one of the inactives in Gorgon's game.

Ah, okay, I see.

[Justin Playfair]

Let’s take a look at Claus’ Christmas list.

If we look at the three people on Claus’ scummy list who posted after he made his initial naughty and nice list we see a marked difference in tone between how he responded to me and Incognito and how he responded to Apyadg. We have to be careful reading too much into this, because both Incognito and I came back on him some, which may have spurred his later attack posts, but his second post to Apyadg is still worth noting because it was so different in tone:

Welcome back to the game! I agree with the others that asking which subjects you should reply to, and which are already "closed" don't look good for you.

If you were asking a honest question, I feel that the best way you could return to the game is, instead of concentrating in specific episodes, to write what you think about the different players, and point out who you feel is scummy. That will give us a good "snapshot" of your position, and probably will allow you to put your thoughts about the game in order as well.

Compared to his other actions toward people he found “suspicious”, this seems remarkably gentle. It could have just been his way of not getting into a fight with another player. In itself it doesn’t raise my suspicions of Apyadg, but it doesn’t lower them either.

As for MafiaSSK and Disciple Slayer, it was/is easy to be suspicious of either of them. I’m not sure how much the appearance of either of them on his list can tell us at this point.

Unlisted: Ho1den seems an odd choice for unlisted because he was considered so town by others. It’s hard to draw absolute conclusions here but to me this may be just one more tiny bit of evidence suggesting Ho1den is town. Kuribo is in here, too. I may be somewhat biased because I have a pretty town read on him myself, but the tone Claus used in relation to Kuribo makes me think he was trying to set him up for later attacks.

As for Claus’ nice list, the inclusion of Ythill, at this point, seems pretty obvious. No reason to cast suspicion in his direction if you’re planning to kill him later. Putting charter in nice while Ho1den was in unlisted bothers me but I get all wifomy whenever I try to figure out what it would mean. It could be trying to make a scum buddy seem more innocent. It could be a case where he figured a clean initial read on charter could always be overridden by a “scummy” revelation his replacement would make, but that the initial clean read would provide cover. Just not enough there.

The other two are more interesting. I found Ythill’s initial attacks on Northjayhawk to be pretty opportunistic and not entirely fair. And when Northjayhawk flaked here he flaked everywhere, which argues that he might be just a flake. Shteven hasn’t raised any overtly red flags for me with his play, and Claus’ one line assessment of Shteven doesn’t seem that far off to me. A town read on Shteven may have seemed safe to Claus because Ythill was circling Incognito at that point and Shteven wasn’t getting any attention from the rest of us. But it might also have been Claus’ way to try to subtly push Ythill away from a Shteven night kill. Claus didn’t seem the subtle sort to me, though.

What bothers me about Claus’ read on Xtoxm is that it basically misrepresented Xtoxm in nearly every aspect of his play while also labeling him as a solidly town player. My own read on Xtoxm has been pretty middle of the road, but given what Claus posted and what we now know about Claus I do want to ask a few questions.

Xtoxm,

First, there is the false conclusion you reached about what to do in the event of Ythill killing Incognito. Even after being corrected about your thought that an innocent Incognito dead by Ythill’s hand would prove Ythill scum, and after seeming to acknowledge that you understood this, you returned to posting the same basic statement again. Here’s the sequence:

I'd be happy to go along with that...if you die and your mafia, then Ythill is twlling the truth, if your town, we can lynch Ythill.

No, I want to lynch mafiaSSK today. This will have no effect on what Ythill said. Ok so he could be vig and be wrong. But if he kills you at night and you are mafia we know he is telling the truth

If he is scum I think it's a bit of a stupid plan cos if you die night one and come up town i'd just be pushing for Ythill's lynch until he's lynched.

Could you explain your thinking during this sequence of posts?

I’m also curious as to why you only posted…

This

…in response to why you felt Ythill’s call to me to reassess our positions on each other was suspicious. The above really does look like putting a neon sign over a player you thought was weak and then stepping back to let others make the kill. Could you explain why you never elaborated on this post, and why you gave such a non-specific reason for your first expressed suspicion of Ythill?

[Xtoxm]

Could you explain your thinking during this sequence of posts?

No...I don't know how I came to the conclusion that if Incog was town Ythill was definitley scum. Seems silly now you point it out.

The post where I just quoted something Ythill said, and said "This", was in a phase when I was still being a retarded n00b. I think i'd just pointed the finger at him so I had to go back and find a reason for pointing the finger at him, and that post seemed to contain something that fitted. Cause I hadn't read most the thread up to that point.

...Apologies.

And before you point it out, I know I shouldn't have done that.

[Incognito]

Okay, you know what, Justin Playfair was the only person whom I was waiting for before coming to a decision about what to do with the information I have. The reason why I feel Claus's Naughty and Nice list is a good place to start is because of my role. I am a

Pro-Town Mason

. My Mason buddy might seem obvious to you since I basically defended him early on:

MafiaSSK

. You can see now why the early bandwagon that formed on him set off alarm bells for me. And knowing the information we know now, we see that ChronX (who was replaced by Claus) was actually scum, and he was one of the five people who hopped on the bandwagon.

Look at the Naughty portion of Claus's list. He's listed me (you now know my role), MafiaSSK (you now know his role), Disciple Slayer (we now know his role), Justin Playfair (we don't know his role but judging by the way Claus and him argued with one another, it seems likely that they aren't of the same alignment), and finally Apyadg. Apyadg is the only one on that list who gives me pause since I still feel like he is very likely scum. Further, let's look at what Claus said after he listed the people on the Naughty and Nice list:

Ythill, if you ask me, you should hit one of those on my Naughty list.

If Apyadg

is

scum, Claus would have known that listing him on the Naughty list might not be such a bad idea. I mean, Ythill basically had come to the conclusion that Apyadg was probably town (so he probably wouldn't choose to vig him anyway) and even if Ythill

did

choose to vig him and he came back as scum anyway, Claus wouldn't have looked like such a bad guy. After all, he was listed on the Naughty list and Claus would have looked like such a pro-town character for placing him there the way he did.

Now, I realize that the majority of the active players left in the game (kuribo, Xtoxm, Shteven) fall into the Nice and Unlisted portions of Claus's list so obviously all three of you have reason to be concerned. If you want my opinion though about the rest of the list, I too feel like Ho1den was probably town judging by the content of his posts. Charter really didn't do enough for me to lean one way or another about his alignment. Shteven seems relatively pro-town to me so far, and I feel like Northjayhawk's abandonment was coming more from a frustrated townie rather than floundering scum. Kuribo and Xtoxm seem interesting to me so far, and I'd bet that one of these two is scum (I'm leaning towards Xtoxm though).

So in my opinion as of right now, I feel like the remaining scum are probably Xtoxm and Apyadg. I need to do a re-read to see if anything sticks out to me about anyone else but that's where I'm leaning at the moment. If you have any questions about my claim, feel free to ask me.

[Xtoxm]

I believe your claim Incog.

I still think there is one scum on the naughty list and one on the nice.

I think Apy and Charter/Shteven.

Town having a mason group increases my suspicions of an SK presence in this game.