Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!


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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:47 pm

Post by vollkan »

Snaps wrote:
DE wrote: Anyway, the Fonz and DS seem to be the most suspicious, but I'll go check over the previous few pages in a while.
He never came back to this and told us what about Fonz or Disciple Slayer he found suspicious.
It's worth noting that at the time, DS and Fonz were among those with the highest votecounts. Given the vagueness of DE's professed suspicions, this looks like sitting with consensus.
Snaps wrote:
DE wrote: Consider it this way.In any mafia game where the mafia aren't retarded, there's going to be a townie lynched on the first day. We might as well random vote rather than not vote at all.
In posts 191 through 201, Mills and Hasdgfas argued about whether Dark Ermac was endorsing a random lynch or not. What I find suspicious is the fact that Dark Ermac NEVER jumped in to explain or justify his own post.
Whilst it is true that he never jumped in in that debate, DE did explain it in #83:
DE wrote:
Normally a townie is lynched on the first day, except in the case of this mafia, where I can find a couple people worthy to lynch. The point is, even if they are townie, and get lynched, it won't secure the win for the mafia, but it will check off another name on our list of suspicious people. Eventually I may come up with such a list, but for now I will see what goes on next.
Snaps wrote:
DE wrote: Right now I believe that you are the most scummy, but I won't vote for you. I actually believe you to be a townie. It's hard to understand, but I've seen many games in which the idiot was lynched first, and just so happened to be town. So, everyone who is currently voting for DS: you can choose to either not lynch this townie, or you can lynch him anyway for fears of being taken advantage of by the mafia. Your choice.

Here he does a complete turn around from “DS seems to be the most suspicious” to
“I actually believe you to be a townie”. He gives no explanation for his change of mind. He takes it a step further in post 224.
He explains it on the basis of meta - that VIs are often town. What's interesting is that he changes what is a
possibility
(DS being a town VI) to a fact ("you can choose to either not lynch this townie, or you can lynch him anyway for fears of being taken advantage of by the mafia.")
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:20 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Okay, I have a question. I'm not investigation proof to my knowledge, so that basically means there's a Mafia roleblocker, right? Is there any other real possibility? (I don't know of any pro-town roles who could have prevented my investigation, nor any reason why they'd want to.)

I agree with the suspicions of Dark Ermac, but I was thinking there might be a Xyl/Fonz scumteam before, so I'm not sure about that since I was badly wrong about The Fonz.

Xyl really didn't address Patch (Vollkan, now), Sangy (Skruffs) or sensfan (Rishi) (there may be others that I missed, as well, and please point them out if you notice it), but that might be a factor of them not posting much. I don't really agree with Vollkan's read on the discussion between myself and Mills, but since Mills' replacement has claimed cop, it's pretty much moot at this point.

The reason I became suspicious of Xyl has to do with the timing (and weird abandonment) of his argument with me about Mills' opinion of Dark Ermac. Xyl brought up some suspicions of me regarding my argument with Mills, an argument that he could be pretty sure I'd respond to, right after egruntz's post, quoted here:
egruntz wrote:Here's my suspicions, in the order of greatest to least:

1. Disciple Slayer
2. Mills
3. Xylthixlm

Not much, but something. I'm still most suspicious of Disciple Slayer due to jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon. As for Mills, it's very suspicious that he leaves when we were getting on him. Not having the style to play mafia isn't a good enough reason to just run out.

As for Xylth... IDK, I don't like him ;o
No, just playing bro. Bandwagons; but no as bad as DS.
Which might have been distancing, and certainly isn't a very good case against Xylthixlm. Given what we know now about DS/Eteocles and Xyl, it might seem pretty obvious, and Xyl might have seen it as far too obvious a linkage. That would explain Xyl's arguing with me back and forth for a while, and then abruptly abandoning it with this:
Xylthixlm wrote:No, I see your point now. Thanks.
And later, this is a point in Dark Ermac's favour:
Xylthixlm wrote:Dark Ermac: In other words, you're afraid to tell us who you think is scummy, because doing so might make you look scummy. That's pretty scummy in itself.
Additionally, Xylthixlm's last post was this:
Xylthixlm wrote:I plan to take a hard look at Dark Ermac, egruntz, and Panzerjager tomorrow.
Which seems odd, because he'd already taken a pretty hard look at egruntz already. I'm not sure why egruntz is included here. My guess is that Xyl was distancing.

unvote; vote egruntz


Additionally, egruntz hasn't posted since January 16th.

@mod, could you please prod egruntz? Thanks!
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:44 pm

Post by Rishi »

Xylthixlm wrote:I plan to take a hard look at Dark Ermac, egruntz, and Panzerjager tomorrow.
So I was reading some posts by dead guys, and this was Xyl's last post, which I find interesting. It's possible that he could have put a scumbuddy on this list for some distancing. People today have already given some suspicious on egruntz and Dark Ermac today, and I would seriously doubt all three of the people on this list are scum. I would even doubt that two of the people on this list are scum, unless they are part of different scum groups.

Panz could be scum, but it's unlikely. He went after CKD pretty hard on Day 1. It's possible if there's a pro-town killer (probably vigilante), they might have killed CKD or an opposing scum group might have tried to eliminate someone. However, I don't think Panz would be responsible for this kill. It would be easier for him to try and get CKD lynched, so there's no reason to waste a NK on it.

Still, I wouldn't put Panz high on a scum list. I know he's an aggressive player. That leaves egruntz and Dark Ermac. Do people really think that Xyl would name two scumbuddies in the same post? Now, I could possibly see those two being in different groups, but I have my doubts. I can't really see them both being scum, and there's a good chance that neither of them are.

I should also note that Fonz went after OGML pretty hard on Day 1. I also noticed that CKD had some suspicions. I did a quick glance over OGML's posts (which I intended to do towards the end of Day 1), and I think Fonz might have been on to something. More later, but for now:

Vote: OGML
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:45 pm

Post by xyzzy »

Snaps, your arguments based on number of posts are a little invalid; a good player can post little but contribute more than others. See: Battlemage.

Bookitty, you're right - egruntz on that list does seem odd. I'm not sure it's voteworthy, but odd nonetheless.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:55 pm

Post by Rishi »

xyzzy wrote:Snaps, your arguments based on number of posts are a little invalid; a good player can post little but contribute more than others. See: Battlemage.
Are you saying Battle Mage is a good player?
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:33 pm

Post by PJ. »

I'll second that question rishi, although i think some of his analysis(in the post 427) I don't necessarily agree with, one being voting OGML.

I'm in consensus with BooKitty. I feel we had it right and we let it slip right through are fingers
Unvote,Vote:Egruntz
\

At this point, I think if DE is scum, there are probably 2 scum groups, Egruntz and Xyl and maybe one other, in "Group A" and DE and company in "Group B".
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:17 am

Post by Rishi »

I'm having flashbacks to Twofold Mafia.

Yikes.

Anyway, I meant to ask something. Antithesis, why did you investigate Bookitty?
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:49 am

Post by Antithesis »

Rishi wrote:I'm having flashbacks to Twofold Mafia.

Yikes.

Anyway, I meant to ask something. Antithesis, why did you investigate Bookitty?
Well, I wanted to pick someone who has been active early on, to either confirm them or expose them, as the case may be. CKD would have been the ovious choice to investigate, but I think maybe too obvious. Near the end of the phase he became more active and more willing to offer suggestions, it didn't strike me that he was trying to hide or shy away from all the onus that had been placed upon him. On the off chance that there is a mafia framer or something of that sort I didn't want to investigate an obvious person, but again, wanted to check out someone who has been active. Plus Bookitty had a hand in starting the drive against Mills (though some may argue that Mills played a large part in that as well). So, I figured she would be of some interest, if for no other reason, then to confirm her allignment to myself. It wasn't anything like a gut feeling, more like marking a name off of a checklist. Hopefully the voting last day phase and whatever awaits us this day phase will give me more to go on, as far as investigation targets go.

Since it appears I am being roleblocked I guess its a safe assumption to hope there isn't a framer at work. Maybe if we are lucky we can lynch the blocker today and I can do a better job.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:47 am

Post by xyzzy »

Rishi wrote:
xyzzy wrote:Snaps, your arguments based on number of posts are a little invalid; a good player can post little but contribute more than others. See: Battlemage.
Are you saying Battle Mage is a good player?
No. I'm saying BM makes like 100 posts a day and is terrible.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:55 pm

Post by Elias_the_thief »

Currently searching for replacement for Dark Ermac.
Korlash replaces Dark Ermac
. I may need to find one for egruntz as well, though he has at least recieved his prod.
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:01 pm

Post by Snaps_the_Pirate »

Elias_the_thief wrote:
Currently searching for replacement for Dark Ermac. I may need to find one for egruntz as well, though he has at least recieved his prod.
**sigh**
First Disciple Slayer and Mills, now Dark Ermac and Egruntz. Why do the persons I find suspicious keep getting replaced.

I did a reread of Xylthixlm. He was by far our most active player. I must admit that he had me compleatly fooled. On the surface his posts seemed genuine and helpful. However, now that we know his status, it appears that he was fishing. He had mild confrontations with most of the active players, perhaps to get a feel for who would he could form a bandwagon on. The players he ignored may be possible scummates. Only two players had
zero
interaction with Xylthixlm: Xyzzy/TheDrangonsPincess and Vollkan/Patch15.

Bookitty wrote:I'm not investigation proof to my knowledge, so that basically means there's a Mafia roleblocker, right? Is there any other real possibility?
I can think of one other possibility. Antithesis could have lied to save himself from a lynch, and now is tring to give some creditability to that lie. However, this would be a stupid move if he was mafia. The real cop would investigate him and discover his status. I don't know him, but I get the feeling that Antithesis is not stupid. Noone has counter-claimed cop so I belive Antithesis' claim and I belive the mafia have a roleblocker.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:09 pm

Post by Korlash »

Hmmm... This is going to be an interesting readup I think... >.>
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:03 pm

Post by vollkan »

PBP Review of Xylthixlm

{View is of Xy in isolation, oldest first}
0: Bandwagon vote on OGML
1: “We're bandwagoning YOU, not ME.” To OGML after OGML OMGUSed Xy
2: Opposes NL.
3: Set-up speculation (“I would assume 4 mafia + a serial killer, myself.”)
4: Calls for votes on OGML
5: Attacks liamcool for trying to appear protown. Votes liam.
6: It was actually egruntz. Votes egruntz
7: “egruntz is trying very hard to be helpful to the town.”
8: Translates something snaps said into: “So in summary: You think egruntz really is trying to help the town, but you also think he might be mafia.”
9: Tag fix
10: “Bandwagoning is a null tell until we know some alignments.”
11: “By the way, where did the other votes on egruntz go?” He sure is paying a lot of attention to egruntz
12: “DS and Mills, stop fighting each other and vote egruntz.” More on egruntz
13: Doesn’t want to rush a deadline lynch
14: “Oh, and I'm also really curious to see if DS and/or Mills will do what I tell them.”
15: Says that in 13 he didn’t mean that he wants a rushed lynch now
16: Admits he could be wrong about a rushed lynch being bad :roll:
17: Asks Mills to explain why he said he needs to reread in light of learning that this game isn’t restricted to the newbie roles
18: Wonders how to get info without a wagon
19: Asks for the suspicions of DE and Sangy
20: Votes DS for wagoning
21: “egruntz, do you think we should ever lynch without certain information that someone is mafia? If so, when? If not, how do you expect to win?”
22: Posts probability of town winning by random lynches
23: “Sufficiently bad idiots can be antitown without being scum.”
24: Scumdar post.
Egruntz:
Newbie tells. But giving off newbie tells as experienced player is scummy. His defensiveness is weird. (What’s interesting here is that he expresses a negative opinion of Egruntz without making any actual argument. A distancing tell)
DS:
Lurker
Mills:
“Seems townish”
Snaps:
Posts too much
Fonz and Bookitty
Competent players
Would be happy to vote DS or Egruntz.
25: Criticises Snaps’ verbosity
26: Advocates lynch of the antitown
27: Panzer hasn’t made an impression
28: “Phate, only if they contain useful content rather than saying the same thing three times.”
29: Refers to another post of snaps where he says too much
30: Snarky post at OGML who criticised Xy’s lack of content
31: Continues advocating the lynch of the antitown who are not scum
32: “Mills, that isn't what you said in post 192.”
33: Is sure DS will show up and defend
34: Pushes a DS lynch
35: Ditto
36: FoSes CKD
37: Asks DE what probability he thinks DS is scum.
38: “Any act that hurts the town is scummy”
39: Gives a scumlist:
Disciple Slayer
curiouskarmadog, for voting Mills for a scummy reason then not saying what it is
Dark Ermac, for suggesting random voting then arguing against voting the scummiest people
egruntz, for advocating nolynch and general strange play
It is quite likely, given the pervasiveness of distancing, that at least one other scumbag is in this list. Of those listed, we can rule out DS and CKD (both have died and came up as town). That leaves us with DE and egruntz. Of those two, his comments towards egruntz look most like distancing, since the arguments given against egr are the most flimsy (though the DE arguments aren’t much better).
40: Pushes DS
41: Ditto
42: Explains that scum will push NL more than town
43: “If scum never do it, then it is not a tell. If it's not a tell, there is no penalty for doing it. If there is a benefit and no penalty, then scum will do it.”
44: “The benefit of pushing nolynch is extremely small, so the associated tell is also extremely small... with optimal play. Real scum don't play optimally.”
45: Defends Mills against Boo
46: Puts that logic on hold after Mills
47: His read on Mills has become undecided. Starts attacking Book
48: “Whether you think it's a major issue depends on how you interpret Dark Ermac's post. "Semantics issues" are like that.”
49: Thinks Mills’ defence of DE was semantics
50: Asks why Mills is more inconsistent than Bookitty
51: Sees and accepts Book’s point
52: Asks what time zone the deadline is
53: Reiterates a call by Mills for DS to post
54: Calls for content
55: Questions Eteo’s lurking
56: Confirms vote on Eteo
57: 3 days to deadline
58: FoSes panzer
59: Accuses Panzer of distancing from DS
60: “I know the argument against Panzer is weak. Still, I've got my eye on her.”
61: Asks why some people are not voting
62: Keeps pushing the non-voters to vote
63: Points out mod error
64: Thinks DS might have forgotten his role
65: Doesn’t like DE not revealing suspicions
66: “I plan to take a hard look at Dark Ermac, egruntz, and Panzerjager tomorrow.”

I’m in agreement with Bookitty that Xyl was probably distancing against egruntz. DE is also a possibility.

Needless to say, I shall be giving both of them a thorough review in my future posts.
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:04 pm

Post by Snaps_the_Pirate »

Bookitty wrote:I'm not investigation proof to my knowledge, so that basically means there's a Mafia roleblocker, right? Is there any other real possibility?
I took a look in the wiki under roles and came up with another possibility. Anitithisis may have been protected by a paraniod doctor, AKA a jailkeeper. Paranoid doctors roleblock as well as protect. A paranoid doctor may or may not be aware of his dual ability. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jailkeeper
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:33 am

Post by Skruffs »

Snaps : Why would you assume it was a paranoid doctor... and not, just, say, a normal jailkeeper?
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:04 am

Post by hasdgfas »

I think he's calling them the same thing.
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:37 pm

Post by Snaps_the_Pirate »

Skruffs wrote:Snaps : Why would you assume it was a paranoid doctor... and not, just, say, a normal jailkeeper?
I'm not assuming anything. The only difference between the two seems to be that a jailkeeper is aware of his roleblocking ability and a paranoid doctor isn't. However, as I have stated earlier, I think we have a roleblocker. I only brought up the jailkeeper/paranoid doctor senario because we shouldn't discount any possibilities.



By the way, welcome to our little game Skruffs, and Korlash.
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:51 pm

Post by Snaps_the_Pirate »

I only brought up the jailkeeper/paranoid doctor
senario
scenario because we shouldn't discount any possibilities.



Can't spell, sorry.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:12 pm

Post by egruntz »

Alright, sorry for not being totally active. Super Smash Bros. Brawl has been a huge hit, and I've been obsessing over it lately.

Knew Xyl was scum >.>.
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:17 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

Um, that looks like "I told you so, can I get some townie points?" to me.

FoS: egruntz
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:39 pm

Post by Skruffs »

But why is there teh assumption that the investigation failed anyways?

It all depends on the mod. Some mods only have Guilty results - a "No result" can mean that the player is innocent, or that the investigation failed.

Of course, BooKitty could also be a Neutral player, like a survivor, or whatnot, and sometimes those dont' show up.

Nice to be here everyone.

Xyl is an awesome player, if this ist he Xyl from IRC-chat. In IRC chat, xyl Always dies n1, unless he's scum. My guess is that the SK got him, if this forum reflects IRC chat in any way. Either that or a vig felt Xyl was being TOO town. Anyways, no way to know at this time, but I would be a bit wary of people saying "Wow xyl had me completely fooled" - I always consider statements like that to be scum covering their tracks.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:43 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

Skruffs wrote: Xyl is an awesome player, if this ist he Xyl from IRC-chat. In IRC chat, xyl Always dies n1, unless he's scum. My guess is that the SK got him, if this forum reflects IRC chat in any way. Either that or a vig felt Xyl was being TOO town. Anyways, no way to know at this time, but I would be a bit wary of people saying "Wow xyl had me completely fooled" - I always consider statements like that to be scum covering their tracks.
What are your thoughts on egruntz's comment that he "knew Xyl was scum"? Is it as suspicious to you as "wow he had me fooled"?
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:45 pm

Post by Skruffs »

egruntz wrote:
FOS: Xylthixlm


No, not because he voted for me, but because he seems he wants to get the day done with, and skip right onto night. It's best to spend your time and gather the proper information before casting a vote, otherwise you could end up screwing your own team greatly. Why rush things when we've limited time, anyway? Why create a bandwagon just for the hell of it?

Not a scummy move, but something that grabbed my attention.

[OOC: Sorry for not posting in the last couple of days or so. This Christmas sure kept me busy! I've received a Nintendo Wii, along with Super Mario Galaxy, and some other accessories. That'll definitely keep me busy for a while! I'll still be keeping an eye out in this mafia, though; so no worries!]
Interesting. I haven't read through the whole game, just isolated egruntz to see how he 'knew' zyl was scum. The beginning fo the day was him defending no lynching, but in this post, he goes and fosses Xyl for, I guess, stirring up the game? It seems eqruntz's modus operandi is to limit the amount of information. No lynches. No bandwagons. Just... what... night? :)

This is later enforced when he votes DS for creating Bandwagons. (He votes DS, only fosses Xyl)


Sounds like distancing to me. ^.^
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egruntz
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:46 pm

Post by egruntz »

O_o ooooooverspeculation there, hasdg. Saying "knew Xyl was scum" is the same as mentioning his death, or even discussing it. I'm not trying to earn "brownie points", just bringing up a friendly note.

I was suspicious of Xyl, and he turns out to be scum. Surely, you wouldn't say nothing?
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:47 pm

Post by Skruffs »

I hadn't seen Egruntz' statement before I posted that, But, I was making that post while you asked me that question.

GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE, YA KNOW?

When someone 'thinks' someone is scum, but doesn't push it, and doesn't provide any reasons, that seems scummier to me than someone who pretends not to have noticed someone else's scumminess, which is more like "Good work protecting, Doc!"

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