Mini 539: Game over

[Shteven]

I have stated that I think there is going to be one scum on the naughty list. Apyadg. And one on the nice. Stheven/Gorgon (Charter).

I can see Shteven paired with Claus.

[underline mine]

Why?

[Xtoxm]

I have stated that I think there is going to be one scum on the naughty list. Apyadg. And one on the nice. Stheven/Gorgon (Charter).

I can see Shteven paired with Claus.

[underline mine]

Why?

I noted that you didn't seem to have much interaction with claus, your predecessors both quit around the same time too.

[kuribo]

That's pretty shaky ground, Xtoxm.

[Xtoxm]

That's pretty shaky ground, Xtoxm.

I didn't say "I have a case that's make Shteven certain scum" I said "I can see Shteven paired with Claus"

[kuribo]

But lack of interaction is a null-tell. You could just as easily say that X and Y are scum because they've spent alot of time accusing each other.

[Shteven]

It's not often I get defended before I can respond. Doesn't bother me much, but it reminds me of the earlier mafiaSSK/Xtoxm controversy.

And yes, it is a pretty weak case, but Xtoxm is right that he hasn't oversold it. Without checking exact drop-out times, I would imagine there are also several others who dropped out around the same time, as we had about 5 inactives on day 1 if I recall. So that could link to Apyadg, or MafiaSSK, or DS. Of course, DS was the doctor...

I didn't talk much to Claus, but he wasn't around for very long in the grand scheme of things. We didn't have much disagreements to work out; he placed me on his nice list. In hindsight this might not have been as nice a thing as I thought since he came up scum, but I didn't see anything to take issue with it at the time. Looking back at it, it does seem a bit -too- positive. I get the sense he was trying to buddy up with me, actually.

[Xtoxm]

If you want me to go into details I can, but Northjay and ChronX quit very close together, as my memory serves. The others were scattered. SSK still seems to be around, though he deserves to have been replaced.

[MafiaSSK]

If you want me to go into details I can, but Northjay and ChronX quit very close together, as my memory serves. The others were scattered. SSK still seems to be around, though he deserves to have been replaced.

True. I should have been replaced by now, but luckily our mod is a lazy mod. =D

[Shteven]

How about, instead, you tell us what you think of day 2 events? Who are you suspicious of? Contribute, and ye shall be rewarded*!


*Maybe.

[Xtoxm]

*Sigh*

Come on guys, don't let this die.

Well I think Apy is scum and it's a chance to get rid of another inactive.

vote aypadg

[Justin Playfair]

Well,

First, I guess I should comment on the claims.

Considering everything that has been said by everyone I can’t see an angle from which Incognito’s claim is likely to be false. I wish he hadn’t made it today because after the events of last night Incognito himself was one of the least likely lynches for the day and I don’t think we would have gone after MafiaSSK as a top suspect based solely on his previous activities. I just hate MafiaSSK suddenly reappearing to say “uh-huh, that’s right” but given the angles I don’t think it diminishes Incognito’s claim.

That leaves me, Xtoxm, Apyadg, Charter/Gorgon, Shteven, Ho1den and Kuribo as possible suspects. I’ll leave it for others to comment on me, but here are my (I promise very brief) thoughts on everyone else:

Kuribo. I think his play has been solid town. He was suspicious of Ythill, who turned out to be the vig, but then so were most of us, at one time or another. I think he hit Xtoxm a little too hard on Xtoxm’s being willing to shift his vote from MafiaSSK to Disciple Slayer, but I think the impression he has of Xtoxm that led him to jump on it is based on fairly compelling and suspicious elements of Xtoxm’s play. Among the non-claimed Kuribo seems cleanest to me.

Ho1den. And let me say that I hate that my next most townie person hasn’t been here for so long. I had some questions about Ho1den early in relation to his behavior around Incognito and Xtoxm. He answered my questions well, though, and his suspicions were spread out and well thought out. I didn’t like him deciding who I was more interested in between Incognito and Xtoxm, and that was just one of a couple cases of him deciding someone else shared his suspicions in a way that seemed designed to add weight to his case. It’s a pretty small thing, but it, along with his long absence and some lingering not quite content feelings I have about his initial reactions to MafiaSSK/Xtoxm/Incognito keep him out of my least suspected spot.

Shteven. Ultimately, the really bad thing in Northjayhawk’s play wasn’t what Ythill came after him on. It was the OMGUS attack about Ythill’s list pointing out targets for scum. It was just so desperate, almost to the point of being hysterical. I’ve liked almost everything Shteven’s posted, with the exception of his defense of his changing position on the possibility of a MafiaSSK lynch, which still seems a little slippery to me.

Charter. Really not that much to go on here. Charter coasts behind other players a couple times, and you could interpret some of his posts as backing what looks like the strong dog in the fight instead of honestly forming opinions. I don’t like the way he swore me up early even while ignoring the case I made which made him swear me up. I don’t care for the maybe-maybe nots he delivers on MafiaSSK, Northjayhawk and Incognito, nor that he had to be prompted a little to even give those.


Xtoxm. Holding on too long to the serial killer idea. Holding on too long to the lynch Ythill if he kills Incognito and he comes up town idea. Holding on too long to his vote on MafiaSSK without ever poking around too much elsewhere. His desultory attack on Ythill, and I mean all of it, not just the “This.” post. And the fact he had to be prodded into making it at all. “Scum pair”. His too quick and whole-hearted acceptance of all the claims and Ythill’s post-mortem reasoning. I don’t like any of the previous. But all of it seems as likely to be the result of a new player getting his legs as scumminess. Based on the evidence in thread I don’t feel like I have any choice but to put him in this number two slot, but I’m not sure that he’s not here by default, because I don’t have more to go on with Charter and Ho1den.

Apyadg. I like his reasoning for, and his defense of, his initial vote on MafiaSSK. I hate everything else he’s done, and have pointed it out often enough that I feel like pointing it out again here would amount to spamming. Put me in isolation and they’ll be easy to find.

Vote Apyadg

Let’s see if he comes to visit again if he gets close to lynch.

[Shteven]

I would support an Apyadg lynch, but I would much rather prefer not to lynch someone who isn't here to post for themselves. We already mislynched once doing that, and risking another is a high cost.

I'm going to wait this one out for a little while; either a replacement or a magical reappearance...It worked with mafiaSSK, although he's somewhat unhelpful.

[Xtoxm]

I would support an Apyadg lynch, but I would much rather prefer not to lynch someone who isn't here to post for themselves. We already mislynched once doing that, and risking another is a high cost.

I'm going to wait this one out for a little while; either a replacement or a magical reappearance...It worked with mafiaSSK, although he's somewhat unhelpful.

Given the amount of power roles for town we have seen, do you really think it's likely any of the ones left unclaimed are going to claim anyhting other than vanilla? Which is all that the mafia are going to false-claim anyway?

I think he's scum and unless I got a very convincing claim from him nothing would change that.

And I really can't see town having any more powers.

[Xtoxm]

And mod, please prod Gorgon, he hasn't said anything since he replaced other than a "hi" post

[kuribo]

And I really can't see town having any more powers.

"More" power roles than what? A single vig?

[Shteven]

And I really can't see town having any more powers.

"More" power roles than what? A single vig?

DS was the doctor.

I could see a third power role, but yes it's likely that those are the only 2.

[Xtoxm]

Ok, given mason's aren't power roles...But they are very useful to town. Along with vig and doc. I doubt there are any more.

[kuribo]

And I really can't see town having any more powers.

"More" power roles than what? A single vig?

DS was the doctor.

I could see a third power role, but yes it's likely that those are the only 2.

ooooh yeah, i forgot about DS

So I take it I'm not the only one that doesn't believe the Mason claim?

[Xtoxm]

And I really can't see town having any more powers.

"More" power roles than what? A single vig?

DS was the doctor.

I could see a third power role, but yes it's likely that those are the only 2.

ooooh yeah, i forgot about DS

So I take it I'm not the only one that doesn't believe the Mason claim?

Why don't you believe the mason claim? what makes you doubt it?

SSK has backed Incog up on it so if they are lying that's the last 2 scum.

That's insanity for scum to try and pull.

Anyway I thought I was your top suspect, how is that possible if you don't believe their claim?

[Justin Playfair]

Kuribo,

You stated earlier that you believed that MafiaSSK could be a mason with Incognito, but not scum. Have you changed your mind about this?

[Gorgon]

Well, I finally finished the read. Sorry for the time it took, but there were a lot of long posts there, and I wanted to take it all in.

I think Apy is not a bad lynch for today. He's been acting weird, to putting mildly ... nothing solidly scummy, though, but I feel his interaction with Claus was particularily damning. Mind you, it could have been a ruse by Claus to cast suspicion on Apy, should he (Claus) get killed and revealed as scum, but I'm not sure he thought that far ahead.

Xtomx is my second choice. I just get a bad vibe from him. Nothing solid, which is why he's my second choice, but I'm definitely suspicious of him.

It's good that Incognito and SSK were both revealed as masons (who should be given the benefit of the doubt for now, obv. It's unlikely that they are not both actually protown masons, seeing that this is a normal mini) - since I found them both suspicious.

It's late where I am, and I'm tired, so that's all I have for now. More later. If you have any questions, please let me know.

[kuribo]

Kuribo,

You stated earlier that you believed that MafiaSSK could be a mason with Incognito, but not scum. Have you changed your mind about this?

No, I said that if Incog is telling the truth (and a mason), then Mafia would likely be his true partner. If Incog is lying and scum, then Mafia is likely not his partner.

What I said in a nutshell is that if Incog is scum instead of Mason, he probably hasn't outted his partner.

I don't believe the claim because it came with nearly no pressure and very early on Day 2. There was absolutely no strategic reason for him to not only claim, but also to out his partner. (If he has done that)

[Shteven]

To answer Kuribo, I had forgotten to list the masons because masons aren't a very powerful role. But they are certainly useful, and I do believe them.

This does make the possibility of a cop even more remote, yes. So it's probably true we have no more power roles to lose...but why are we focusing on it so much?

Maybe it's just the general slowdown because I'm not fond of an Xtoxm lynch but would support Apyadg, except for him not being active.

Mod: Can we get an update on prod/pending replacement status?

[Xtoxm]

Kuribo has ignored the question's I directly asked him. Make of that what you will...

[Justin Playfair]

Kuribo,

Okay, now I’m a bit confused. You say:

No, I said that if Incog is telling the truth (and a mason), then Mafia would likely be his true partner. If Incog is lying and scum, then Mafia is likely not his partner.

What I said in a nutshell is that if Incog is scum instead of Mason, he probably hasn't outted his partner.

I don't believe the claim because it came with nearly no pressure and very early on Day 2. There was absolutely no strategic reason for him to not only claim, but also to out his partner. (If he has done that)

But given this, since MafiaSSK has now confirmed that he is Incognito’s partner, wouldn’t that mean that following the reasoning above you should now believe the claim?

If not, could you explain why your thinking on this specific part of the equation has changed?

MafiaSSK jumping in out of nowhere to confirm the claim would have made me more suspicious of it, but I have a feeling I may have been reading too much into your original post on the matter.

And are you still around, Incognito? You haven’t posted since January 29.