Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[Khelvaster]

The Votecounts haven't changed, but voters have votecount

Sensfan(4)--Xylthixlm, jerubbaal, Joubert, Cogito Ergo Scum
Xylthixlm(1)-- Ting
Eliast The Thief(1)--jovo14
Ting--(1)Woelrat


With 12 alive, it will be 7 to lynch!

[Khelvaster]

Oh...and I sent off the three prods you asked for.

[ting =)]

mod:

It says Elias has two votes, but there's only one name next to him...

[Elias_the_thief]

i agree with ting.

[Joubert]

What makes me tingle is that SensFan seems to be the only one with a PR. The other thing is that he claimed quite fast. Usually I don't believe such simple claims easily, but because of the PR (which could be true nevertheless), SensFan wouldn't have any choice to make his claim that straightforward...

Counterclaiming that early in the game would be an error. So if there's a real Cop out there, he should refrain...

[Xylthixlm]

Why hasn't SensFan been lynched yet?

[Khelvaster]

Why hasn't SensFan been lynched yet?

Because there aren't seven votes on him....

All joking aside, I've fixed the votecount. Elias only has one vote on him.

[Elias_the_thief]

ugh. im still really conflicted on this SF issue. The only townie who ive seen fake a PR WAS my brother, who just does stuff like that. I dont really know SF to have a reputation, so I cant say whether theyd fake as town. Im pretty sure the PR isnt legit though.

[Xylthixlm]

ugh. im still really conflicted on this SF issue. The only townie who ive seen fake a PR WAS my brother, who just does stuff like that. I dont really know SF to have a reputation, so I cant say whether theyd fake as town. Im pretty sure the PR isnt legit though.

A few instances of townies faking post restrictions do not change the fact that

most

players who fake PRs are scum.

[Elias_the_thief]

yeah, but that doesnt actually change the likelihood of SF saying to himself "hmm, ill fuck with these guys by having a PR". Its still just as possible either way.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

yeah, but that doesnt actually change the likelihood of SF saying to himself "hmm, ill fuck with these guys by having a PR". Its still just as possible either way.

There is

no way

anyone would do that as a cop.

Really, he either is a cop with a pr, or he's scum, and since we're in a mini normal and because SF hasn't really done anything protown, I'm 99% sure it's the latter.

[lovo14]

im still not sure about sf. i have never seen someone fake a pr. esp one so complicated. but yer.

[Xylthixlm]

yeah, but that doesnt actually change the likelihood of SF saying to himself "hmm, ill fuck with these guys by having a PR". Its still just as possible either way.

The question is: Do you think that SensFan would be more likely to fake a post restriction as scum than he would be as town? If the answer is "yes", then him faking a post restriction is evidence (not proof, but evidence) that he is scum.

To calculate exactly how much evidence it provides, we can use Bayes's formula. If SensFan starts with a 25% chance of being scum (about average for a game this size), and is three times more likely to fake a post restriction as scum than he is as town, then his probability of being scum given only that he fakes a post restriction - and no other info about his play - is 50%. If he is ten times more likely to fake as scum than as town, his chance of being scum on just that information jumps to 77%.

I really don't believe that townies fake post restrictions anywhere near as often as scum do. I'm also reasonably confident that SensFan is faking his. Thus, on that evidence alone, I can conclude that SensFan is more likely than not to be scum, and definitely a better lynch than any other player. The fact that his play is highly scummy even without the PR only increases my confidence.

[Xylthixlm]

yeah, but that doesnt actually change the likelihood of SF saying to himself "hmm, ill fuck with these guys by having a PR". Its still just as possible either way.

There is

no way

anyone would do that as a cop.

Really, he either is a cop with a pr, or he's scum, and since we're in a mini normal and because SF hasn't really done anything protown, I'm 99% sure it's the latter.

This argument is good too.

[Elias_the_thief]

if hes already just screwing with the town, theres no reason he wouldnt just claim cop to mess us up more. On the other hand, he may have claimed cop because hes scum who feels hes about to be lynched and wanted to draw a counterclaim.

[SensFan]

Vote: I

Vote: P
Vote: O
Vote: S
Vote: T
Vote: E
Vote: D

Vote: A

Vote: S
Vote: C
Vote: U
Vote: M
Vote: L
Vote: I
Vote: S
Vote: T




Vote: A
Vote: N
Vote: Y

Vote: Q
Vote: U
Vote: E
Vote: S
Vote: T
Vote: I
Vote: O
Vote: N
Vote: S

[Elias_the_thief]

yes, why am i scum.

[Xylthixlm]

if hes already just screwing with the town, theres no reason he wouldnt just claim cop to mess us up more. On the other hand, he may have claimed cop because hes scum who feels hes about to be lynched and wanted to draw a counterclaim.

Playing around people who are deliberately trying to sabotage the game is futile. I doubt we would see a person like that on this site, though.

Your second conjecture is much more likely.

[Elias_the_thief]

Oh, I've seen plenty of saboteurs in my time, at least 3 or 4 that ive personally witnessed and several others that I've been told of. I'll probably end up voting for SF, but Im far from sure that theyre scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not saying they don't exist. I'm saying that "he might be trying to sabotage the game" is a bad argument for not voting someone. It's pretty much the same argument as "he might be a Jester".

[Xylthixlm]

Also, "sure that they're scum" is

far

too high a bar for voting, especially on day 1.

[Joubert]

OR... Simply ignore SensFan for now, find other trails and the real Cop (if there's one) can investigate him during the Night. That's another possibility...

[SensFan]

Also, "sure that they're scum" is

far

too high a bar for voting, especially on day 1.

Vote: S
Vote: C
Vote: U
Vote: M
Vote: M
Vote: Y

Vote: N
Vote: O
Vote: T

Vote: S
Vote: C
Vote: U
Vote: M

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Oh, I've seen plenty of saboteurs in my time, at least 3 or 4 that ive personally witnessed and several others that I've been told of. I'll probably end up voting for SF, but Im far from sure that theyre scum.

Too bad Xyl already made the Jester analogy, because I would've. Really, just because one is almost definitely scum, you think they're townies trying to mess with the town? That's quite possibly one of the worst arguments I've heard. And even

if

he'd be sabotaging this much, we'd be better off lynching him asap anyway.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

OR... Simply ignore SensFan for now, find other trails and the real Cop (if there's one) can investigate him during the Night. That's another possibility...

The real cop already knows SF is scum. You're trying to get your partner to live for another day, and get a cop investigation wasted while you're at it?