Newbie 549: (Game Over)

[Sir Tornado]

attosai, of course the cop relies on the doc for his protection. How is that a major drawback?

You would expect the doc to atleast send his night choice, don't you?

[ting =)]

Batt, care to explain your vote on me? You didn't even give a reason. I'm not worried about dying since it's 3 to lynch, but until you give me an explanation on why I'm voted for, you're on my suspicions list.

FOS: Batt

As much as I really thought Ross was scum, I'd have to take that back. He pushed really hard for the pwirl/alvin lynch. I thought at first that they were both scum and he was distancing, but... he pushed really hard for the vote. He's on my tentative town list.

Batt: He'd be on my town list, but a vote without giving a reason? I just don't see that as being pro-town. I'd call him scum, but the thing is, he was on the alvin wagon, so i'm not so sure.

Niltic/Sir Tornado: I don't really know that much about either of these two. I like Sir T's plan, but you're neglecting the possibility that the cop might have investigated either alvin, or blck. That only gives us 1 confirmed townie, since his investigation turned up dead.

1 confirmed townie and 4 unconfirmed wouldn't be much help. I don't see how we could proceed from that. I think the cop shouldn't claim IF he investigated either blck or alvin.

If the cop investigated someone else though, I think Sir T's plan for a claim should lead to a town win.

[Sir Tornado]

He couldn't have investigated alvin because Alvin was already dead. If cop investigated blckknight, then he should still claim. It will make sure he gets at least one investigation tonight and gets the doc protect.

The doc, on the other hand shouldn't give any indication as to his role.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
ting =) (1): Battousai

Not Voting (4): Sir Tornado, Rosso Carne, ting =), niltiacjoan

With 5 alive it is 3 to lynch.

[Battousai]

well ting, it was between you, sir tornado, and niltiacjoan and to me you are the most suspicious. Unless you claim cop or doc at L-1, your death would not draw the town back if you were townie. If you are scum then town wins. Next post will be the posts that makes me think you are more scummy.

[Battousai]

Another thing, in post 22, Ross says:

unvote, vote wizard

seriously this time, he needs to be lynched before his scum buddy can have ample bussing and distancing time.

I think that's exactly what you're doing Ross, distancing yourself from your scumbuddy.

FOS: Ross and PWIRL

That would be a very risky gambit to pull. First going straight at his partner's throat at the very beginning when he could have just shrugged it off as being a noob mistake.

Just posting my opinions on everyone:
Blck and Batt are easily the 2 most active people, and neither of them have done anything scummy. Right now I'm leaning on both of them being town, but that's because of lack of scumminess, not because of proof of being town.

you openly said you thought blck was town and he ended up dead.

Just out of curiousity, how long do you guys want to wait till we go for a lynch? I think we all have a clear enough idea about who we each are most suspicious of. This game isn't going to move unless we vote for them.

Wanting night to come so you can use your power role

I think that the other scum is not an IC. The reason being, it would have been smart to kill rosso last night instead of blcknght. Rosso is basically a confirmed townie to the town so if you leave him alive he will increase the remaining scum's chances of being lynched. That means it is either you or joan and I'm placing my bet on you.

[Battousai]

attosai, of course the cop relies on the doc for his protection. How is that a major drawback?

You would expect the doc to atleast send his night choice, don't you?

That's my point, the drawback is that the doc could become inactive over the night.

[ting =)]

you openly said you thought blck was town and he ended up dead.

How does that prove anything? Everyone has their own list of town/scum in their head, just for posting mine, and someone on my town list dies, I'm scum?

Wanting night to come so you can use your power role

I already explained myself. The discussion on day one had gone stale. We were going over the same ground over and over, I'm not the only one who thought so. It was time for day 2.

That would be a very risky gambit to pull. First going straight at his partner's throat at the very beginning when he could have just shrugged it off as being a noob mistake.

As much as I really thought Ross was scum, I'd have to take that back. He pushed really hard for the pwirl/alvin lynch. I thought at first that they were both scum and he was distancing, but... he pushed really hard for the vote. He's on my tentative town list.

Yes, that's why I changed my opinions on Ross. And seriously, you think Ross' L-1 of pwirl is a 'risky gambit', but when I actually go and hammer pwirl/alvin, it's all fair game?

I think that the other scum is not an IC. The reason being, it would have been smart to kill rosso last night instead of blcknght. Rosso is basically a confirmed townie to the town so if you leave him alive he will increase the remaining scum's chances of being lynched. That means it is either you or joan and I'm placing my bet on you.

Here, you're making the insulting assumption that both joan and I would make lousy scum just because we're both new.

[Sir Tornado]

attosai, of course the cop relies on the doc for his protection. How is that a major drawback?

You would expect the doc to atleast send his night choice, don't you?

That's my point, the drawback is that the doc could become inactive over the night.

This is crap logic.

I am fairly certain that battousai is the second scum now. But I would still like a cop claim.

[ting =)]

Right now batt, you're highest on my scum list. You seem very intent on a lynch on me, and have casted a vote without waiting for anyone else's discussion. Why the rush? Niltic and Ross haven't even said anything yet. If you're town, then why not wait for more discussion before casting a vote? Only scum have to gain by going for a lynch before we're done discussing.

@Sir T. Yes, my mistake, alvin was dead during night. I'm still not sure with a cop claim if he investigated blck though. Worse case scenario:

cop investigates doc. we lynch a town. scum kills doc.
we're down to 1confirmed cop, 1 unconfirmed town, 1 scum.
With the doc dead, the scum can just claim doc, we lose.
2nd worse case scenario is if cop investigates town, and the scum kills the town the cop investigated. That will boil down to the doc claiming, the scum claiming doc, and then we get a wifom where the cop will have to choose correctly.

If the cop investigated someone else, he should follow Sir T's plan and claim.

[ting =)]

That's a good point sir t. After rereading, it seems that batt is quite against your plan, despite its logic. I'm starting to think you're right, and that batt is scum trying to get someone else lynched before the cop can claim.

[ting =)]

I was just thinking things over. Worse case for cop claim is not as bad as the worse case for no cop claim.

If the cop claims now, at worse, we get 1 confirmed town. If he doesn't claim now but waits till he has more information, the scum could nk him at night 2, since the doc won't know who to protect. We'll then have no confirmed townies at all.

I realize I've posted quite a lot on sir t's plan, but that's mostly because I've been posting my thoughts as they hit me. Anyway, I've finally come to conclude that we should go with Sir T's plan.

Unless anyone else has any ideas. Niltiacjoan, Rosso, what do you guys think?

@Batt. You don't want to go with it, but haven't given any concrete reason why not. Do you have a better plan, or do you see any serious flaws? Unless you can give me a good explanation why not, I'm leaning towards voting you once everyone has posted their thoughts.

[Rosso Carne]

i kinda want a cop claim. in fact, i want 2 cop claims so then theres a definite scum among them.

[Sir Tornado]

Ting, if cop investigated a living townie then the doc should claim as well, leaving only 2 unconfirmed people, one of whom we can lynch, and the other of whom we can lynch the next day if first one is town.

If the cop investigated blck then he should claim, followed by a doc claim. We thus get 3 unconfirmed. Lynch one, investigate another at night. Doc protects cop. We win.

There is zero chances of failure as long as:

1) All claims happen today (and thus we can catch a scum false claim)
2) Doc claims after the cop

[ting =)]

I'm guessing joan is cop. With the 5 of us left, there's:

Sir T: wants a cop claim.
Ross: wants a cop claim.
Ting: wants a cop claim.
Batt: does not want a cop claim.
Joan: hasn't said anything.

That cancels out the first 3 of us as cop because we're all not claiming, but we all want a cop claim. That leaves Batt and Joan. I doubt Batt is the cop. He'd have no reason not to claim.

With Sir T's cop+doc claim:

worse case:
We have confirmed cop and doc, 3 unconfirmed, one of which is scum.
The cop investigates an unconfirmed, and we lynch an unconfirmed. Scum nk doc.
At day 3 we have a cop, a confirmed townie, and one obvious scum.
=town win. Anything else happening just makes things easier for us town, I can't think of any way for scum winning if we follow Sir T's plan of the cop claiming, and then the doc after him.

So, either Batt is scum, and gave a crappy reason to try and prevent a plan that would lead to a town win, or he's cop who didn't feel like claiming, so tried to make an excuse. I think you're scum, but anyway, if you're cop, you really should claim now.

Assuming Batt is scum though, that leaves niltiac, who hasn't said anything yet. I'm guessing she's the cop, but we won't know until she actually says something.

[Sir Tornado]

This is precisely the weakness of PiE7 setup. Batt, if you think a cop claim is bad, I'd like to show you that I am not the only one who thinks this course of action is bad.

Check out this post in Open 20: Pie E7 from Patrick.

He states:

I will point out as I did in that game, that if we lynch the mafia roleblocker day 1, then scum fail to kill a powerole on night 1, we have a forced win via poweroles claiming and elimination. Such plans don't always work if the goon is lynched day 1 because the roleblocker can break up cop/doc combos. I don't think there's really much else to add, as "lynch mafia roleblocker on day 1" is a goal but hardly a strategy as such. Most of it is just common sense anyway.

[ting =)]

Bad as a current course of action, or bad as in it makes the game broken if the roleblocker is lynched day 1 in a pie e7? I'm guessing you mean the latter, but I don't think the setup is that broken. Our game, where we actually ended up lynching the roleblocker day 1 and the scum failed to kill a power role, has got to be a pretty rare occurence. Granted, I haven't read through all the games, and this is my first here, but it can't happen that often.

On with the game though: @Ross, Batt, Sir T. Are you guys sure that none of you are the cop who are just unwilling to claim? I know I've said that I think Batt is scum, but I've just read through everything again, and remembered he was on the alvin wagon, L-1 ing hm. Ross was on the wagon too. You Sir T, weren't, but then you did bring up your plan, which as far as I can tell, can't lead to a scum win, so i'm fairly certain you're town.

That makes niltiacjoan who I thought was cop, scum. Unless either Ross or Batt are scum, and decided to lynch his buddy precisely to lead to this.

To cut it short: Ross, Batt, Niltiacjoan. I think one of you three is cop, and the other is scum. I can't decide for sure until joan posts though.

[niltiacjoan]

I like Sir T's plan as well.

Question: Why would a scum claim cop? Apparently it's a pretty normal thing, but wouldn't claiming as a basic townie be safer for the scum?

I agree that Rosso is probably not scum. Maybe in the real world evil groups are full of power struggles, but it seems that would be stupid in this game, and Rosso went straight for Alvin/PWIRL from the beginning.

Batt: He'd be on my town list, but a vote without giving a reason? I just don't see that as being pro-town. I'd call him scum, but the thing is, he was on the alvin wagon, so i'm not so sure.

Anyone could've been on the alvin wagon. I think that's the point Rosso was trying to make with all the distancing and bussing talk.

About the inactive doctor problem: Well, it's always a possibility I suppose, but we have to take risks, don't we? I mean, if we didn't take risks there would be no lynches, the scum would never die, but we would.

With the doc dead, the scum can just claim doc, we lose.

If they claimed doc, wouldn't we know they were lying? The doc comes up as a doc if he dies right?

[Sir Tornado]

What the hell? Cop, claim please.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, Rosso, Bat, is either of you the cop?

[Battousai]

After all of you weighing in and you are all active, I will come out knowing that the doc is active.

I am the COP, and I investigated blcknght last night. The reason I investigated him and not ting last night was alvin's last posts where he sarcastically thanked blcknght for his help. I thought he was mad his partner lynched him.

The reason I voted without reason was that I was following sir t's plan without claiming first. Also, I knew ting would not be lynched before all this happened. The reason being that no real townie would put him in L-1 or hammer him for awhile.

@ting- I did not mean to call you a lousy scum, but stating that I thought the best move scum would have made was to lynch rosso and an experienced player would have seen that. If you are scum, you have your reasons for voting blcknght, but I do not know it.

@Joan- Answer to your question: In an example, I'm cop, sir t is doc, rosso and ting are townies and you are the mafia goon. I come out and so does sir t. That leaves 3 spots open. We start to lynch you and you claim townie. That does nothing because we know 2 of the 3 left are townie and all of you will claim that same role. If you claimed doc instead, we would halt our votes and have to decide either you or sir t is doc, 50/50 chance is better than 0/100.

To put it simpler, the town would sacrifice a townie rather than a power role since they have no powers other than lynching. lynch a townie, investigate 1 of the 2 remaining and lynch based on the results of the 2 remaining.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok then. Doc claim please. (if someone wants to counterclaim Battousai, then now is the time to do so). Lack of counterclaim

on day 2

would be taken as confirmation of Battousai's claim. Don't even try to come up on D3 saying "Hey, I am the cop", because no one is going to believe the cop claim in Lynch of Lose situation.

[ting =)]

I AM THE DOC.

Hurray for town win! =P I say we give it a day or two, just to see if anyone counterclaims, and then we lynch niltiac, investigate Rosso. Or the other way, it won't really matter. If you're townie and we lynch you, we still win after day 3 lylo.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, does anyone have any counter claims?

[niltiacjoan]

No counterclaims here. ^^