Mini 539: Game over

[Gorgon]

Hjallti is right about the statistical error ... I noticed this at the time but didn't feel like commenting on it. It's not an alignment tell either way, anyway. Is it? Although it is of course better to be clear on those things.

Regarding Shteven ... appearing to 'know' that there are three scum in a mini is a weak tell, IMO. I see town do it all the time. It's rare that there are not three scum (read: mafia) in a mini, so it's a fair assumption.

I'm leaning towards both Shteven and kuribo being town.

[Shteven]

You're right he had to put Ythill on the nice list; my point of mentioning him being there was just to point out that the nice list was getting rather short. But let's put that aspect behind us; sorry for focusing on it so much.

Other than the nice list, the "there's 3 scum" issue, is there anything else you'd like me to discuss?

I recall you mentioned me voting for DS - this is true. I was wrong; but so was the majority of the game, and nearly everyone who was active was voting for him. The people who didn't vote for him were the people who weren't playing. His case on me was extremely weak (I particularly didn't like his pointless listing of the 12 players when he only bothered to comment on me) and he was role fishing. I'm disappointed he was town, and even more so that he was the doctor, but based on the information at the time it was the right decision.

[Shteven]

P.S. I'm still favoring a Apyadg lynch once he's replaced. On Kuribo I agree with Gorgon - probably town.

[Hjallti]

especially when he knew they'd get him that night, anyway.

This implies he knew Disciple Slayer was doc, somehow.

As for your left testicle, I would also expect him to have split his scum partners, but there are 3 parts in the list, so if he went like we expected he still had choices. Moreover Claus will have realized that we would expect that and the mechanics of WIFOM denies the argument. I do think his list is important, but I wouldn't think it would be so obvious to say that the unlisted would be definite town (or rather not mafia).

[kuribo]

especially when he knew they'd get him that night, anyway.

This implies he knew Disciple Slayer was doc, somehow.

Read the whole quote, I was referring to the mafia getting Ythill. As in:

Claus would have known there was no point in bucking Ythill's vig claim (thus drawing attention to himself) because the mafia could just kill him that night.

[Incognito]

Okay, guys. I'm back. First thing I should mention is I don't think Apyadg is the correct lynch for today, especially if he doesn't get replaced before the end of this day. If he does happen to get replaced, then obviously I will be pushing hard for his lynch since he was one of my top suspects from the day before.

I know there has been some debate as of recent between kuribo and Shteven about the number of scum within the game. I was under the impression that we had settled that there are most likely three scum in this game from Day 1 discussion. If we assume that, then obviously at least one of the remaining active people is scum and this is why I don't like the Apyadg lynch for today. If we look at this optimistically, I figure it could play out one of two ways: If we hit scum today and Apyadg was in fact scum also and he isn't replaced, then after the Night ends we should all wake up tomorrow morning alive with absolutely no night kill. Then we could lynch Apyadg and hopefully solidify the town win. If we hit scum today and Apyadg isn't scum, then one of us will be killed and we'll be able to determine pretty confidently that Apyadg is most likely town and one of the actives is scum.

I've already stated previously that I have not been a fan of Xtoxm's play, especially around the time of Ythill's claim, his constant talk about an SK, and his incredible willingness to accept my claim at face value almost instantaneously. kuribo and Justin Playfair (two people who didn't even suspect me on Day 1) even expressed some doubt about my claim but yet Xtoxm (someone who suspected me at least somewhat and suspected MafiaSSK strongly) willingly accepted the claim without a single question asked. That doesn't look good to me.

Vote: Xtoxm

Xtoxm, could you explain perhaps more thoroughly why you feel Shteven or charter is likely to be scum along with Apyadg? Because I was looking back at your previous posts with respect to your thoughts about Shteven in particular and I remember this post from you:

MOTR:

Claus
Charter
Ho1den
Shteven - Leaning town
Incog - Probably the one that has interested me most. Sometimes he says something that screams "town", sometimes "I'm scum". I really can't tell.

in which you do list Shteven as MOTR, but you specifically indicate that you are leaning town on him. I'd like to see a solid case from you against Shteven if you truly believe he is scum. I feel like a lot of your posts have been mainly reactionary or in response to questions posed for someone else.

[Hjallti]

Claus would have known there was no point in bucking Ythill's vig claim (thus drawing attention to himself) because the mafia could just kill him that night.

Which is untrue if there is doc around. As long as we have a doc a directed nightkill of mafia this way should have been blocked. I just noted you missed this in your consideration but probably mafia would be aware of that.

[Xtoxm]

Doc got lynched

[Hjallti]

indeed after that post. but kuribo pre-assumes that somehow. Nevermind it is worth ten posts it was just a remark

[Xtoxm]

Oh didn't realise that was from day 1...I dunno...Maybe he just overlooked it...Sometimes easy to forget dead ppl were once alive lol...

[kuribo]

Which is untrue if there is doc around. As long as we have a doc a directed nightkill of mafia this way should have been blocked. I just noted you missed this in your consideration but probably mafia would be aware of that.

But, again, what good would it have done for Claus to go against the town and try to discredit Ythill's claim? That's why Ythill (town) was on the Nice list.

[Jester]

Hi all. I'm replacing in for Apyadg.

In the midst of my read right now (I'm at post 139), and taking rather extensive notes. I suspect I'm going to have a lot of questions. First things first, though: Justin, I might very well call in the implied marker in your sig, now that I've replaced into this game.

From what I have read so far, it seems I owe the game an apology for my predecessor. I'm not a big fan of playing mafia in a hostile way, and there's no question that's what my predecessor was doing, at least in the early game. In particular, I want to disavow my predecessor's post 70, which is ridiculously hostile for so early in a game. A couple of people jumped on him kind of hard for that post, and in my view, rightly so, though I'd also throw out a caution that a lot of people seemed to be offended more by the tone of what he posted than what he actually posted.

That said, I think posts 65 through 76 were really enlightening. Incognito had already coolly weathered an early somewhat harsh attack by ChronX (later shown to be scum) by that time, which predisposed me to think him a townie, and his rip on my predecessor actually strengthened that impression. Then Justin's very balanced approach to looking at both sides throughout the exchange also makes me think he's a townie, too. So, even though the two of you kind of argued a little out of that, right now, both of you strike me as pro-town players. Then Ythill jumped into it and made it a three-way battle and both of you stood up well to

that

, too.

I'm sorry that Ythill isn't in the game any more. I really liked his play style and he's clearly sharp as hell. That's obviously why he was night-killed, and the fact that he was a vig was probably just a bonus for the mafia. Doesn't mean I agree with all his opinions, though. Sometimes the smartest person in the world follows their instincts right off a cliff.

It might describe a good scumhunter but not in a way that would be more indicative than information the scum already have. A good scumhunter, necessarily, is one who correctly identifies scum and effectively convinces townies to vote them. Knowing their own identities, the scum are the best readers of who is a good scumhunter and it is information they gain from us posting our suspicions.

I thought this was very interesting, in context. It's accurate... as far as it goes. But it doesn't go far enough. I've won lots of games for the town by dying young, particularly when I've laid out who I think is suspect and why, then gotten killed for it (in not one but two games, I got mafia NK'ed and SK'ed in the same night!). As a result, I reject Ho1den's early position that laying down all your cards is bad. It might be bad for you personally, but it's never bad for the town. It might be a bit early to say, but right now, my instinct is that Ythill is a better scum-hunter in death than he was in life.

If some of my theories are shown to be dead-wrong later (if Ythill claimed, or something), then I apologize in advance. As I said, so far, I've only read to 139. More from me soon.

::gets back to work::

[Xtoxm]

He claimed one-shot vig.

Thanks for replacing!!!! We nearly have a full set now!

[Justin Playfair]

Sorry, been a bit busy rl and trying to get my ducks in a row for the game I replaced in.

A couple of quick thoughts.

Hjallti,

I sort of agree with what Kuribo said about Ythill making it onto Claus' nice list, though I'm not sure why it matters much at this point. I think instead of being absolutely confident they could night kill Ythill, the real point was that a look at the landscape would have told Claus that there was no way he could have pushed a successful lynch on Ythill day one. So it probably didn't hurt to slap someone he knew was town on his nice list.

Jester,

Welcome to the game. As a game warming present I am pleased to:

Unvote

I'm not letting go of the behavior of Apyadg, but my current vote was on him for the most part to see if I could bait him into making another appearance, so I don't think it's appropriate anymore.

[Justin Playfair]

Ack,

It's depressing how often I do that.

Unvote

[Xtoxm]

As I already said it would take a lot from an Apyadg replacement to convince me to change my mind.

[Hjallti]

day 2 overlook --- I paraphrase rather than quote to show HOW I read the posts rather than WHAT I read.

Italics are comments

474. *Incognito opens the day with reposted Claus' list and the debate of where we have to look.

I think the place on the list of the players doesn't matter: the two (I assume that as long we have no reason to think otherwise we have 1 scum group with 3 players) remaining scum could be anywhere. Every obvious deduction of where Claus would have put them could be WIFOMmed away because Claus would also know it is obvious.

*No SK, probably
476. Shteven also thinks no SK.
478. kuribo makes some considerations about the list.
479. Xtoxm tells he believes there is an SK.

In this I follow Xtoxm's hypothesis, but it is not of importance now. SK could have attacked Ythill or Claus, could have been roleblocked by both town of mafia, as long as we have no more clues than there was a Vig, we shouldn't rule out SK and it is more common in a mini to have one than not to have one. By the way 2 docs is uncommon but a doc/nurse-line up is not, so we could have another doc around

482. Incognito (following Ythill) considers the argument Claus-Justin a no scum tell for Justin.

If Justin could still be neutral (e.g. SK). Justins long debates are playstyle, as he warned on page 1, he promised that he already shortened it but still it is long.

491.

Shteven says it is odd that Ythill attacked CLaus.

Do we know that as a fact? If there is a mafia-role blocker, he would have targetted Ythill, the SK could have targetted Claus meanwhile. What is the likelyhood of this?

492. Shteven gives also a more possibilities of line-up

I think it is to early to use lineup considerations now

Shteven implies that Ythill lied about his one-shot vig,

but that is speculation, mods do not specify all details of a role at the deadscene. Vig could be one-time vig, odd nights vig, ...

496. Justin also reads Claus lists and comes up with an interrogation of Xtoxm
497. answer of Xtoxm.
498. Incognito claims pro-town mason with MafiaSSK and fosses apyadg and xtoxm (and also a bit kuribo)

why this claim?

499-500. reactions of Xtoxm
502. reaction of Shteven
504. kuribo votes Xtoxm
506. Shteven asks why Incognito claimed
508. answers the question: combined with Claus list it gives a lot of info.
510. kuribo doesn't believe the claim
512-513. back-up claim from MafiaSSK
515. Xtoxm says that he don't think there would be scumpair in this game

I assumed there is scumpair in this game left over after one of the scumteam died? I do believe the claim because the 2 scum left over wouldn't do this.

516. Incognito assures us that it is a double town-mason claim:

If we were scum and we were counterclaimed by a real pro-town Mason group,

This is a general misconception: there is no way another pro-town mason group could counterclaim. I was mason in another game with two pro-town mason groups, and even after my nightkill reveiling I was mason my partner was lynched although he claimed to be mason, due to a counterclaim.

516 (second part) questions for Xtoxm.
517. answers from Xtoxm
518. kuribo complains that Xtoxm answers the question about focussing on SK
520. Asks fot Xtomx to claim SK.

This is really unhelpful for town and distracting. kuribo is in my eyes the one that continues the discussion about SK and is distracting town here

534. Vote from Xtoxm on Apyadg
535. Justins' scum list ended with a vote on Apyadg
546.

kuribo seems to have a different concept of mason than I have, anyway in this game according to Incognito the mod told that the word mason is used in it's for this site common meaning: a couple of townies knowing eachother as townies, with the right to speak at night.

550 and more: kuribo and Xtoxm quarreling this is an eagerness-tell, nothing noteworthy.
559. Votes Shteven for assuming 2 remaining scum.
560. Shteven says we have settled to be in 3:9 set up except for Xtoxm

Count me out as well: I would go for 3:1:8 (with a rather big chance of 3:9 or 3:2:7), meaning that 1 or 2 players might be not townaligned and not scum, in other words neutrals. This means that any speculation of this sort is to early. Which neutrals? Well,

since we don't know who Ythill targetted and even have reason to assume he might not have targetted Claus, we might have an SK

but we don't know, night will tell, today this is not an issue. Apart from that a survivor-type of role is also not impossible.

I end just before my entrance in the game. I think I commented on later posts already, but I think I will reread from that point.

I think a weekend without visiting this site will help me thinking about everything now. If you have questions for me just ask them.
I do believe the mason claim, but so think it would be nice if a cop could check it tonight (if he has no better plans).

[Xtoxm]

I REALLY don't like your discarding of Claus's list.

Also, there can't be a nurse otherwise Ythill would still be alive. Unless...If an SK AND mafia targetted Ythill, and a doc protected, would the overkill still kill him, or would the doc's protection save from both? I assume it's the latter, it makes more sense.

[Incognito]

Xtoxm, do you have anything to say in reference to my vote against you? Or my questions that I've asked of you?

[Xtoxm]

Sorry.

I don't think I could say any more throuroughly why I think that.

[Xtoxm]

Perhaps Ythill wasn't allowed to replace back in because he has extra information. He knows whether or not he targetted Claus.

[Shteven]

491. Shteven says it is odd that Ythill attacked CLaus. Do we know that as a fact? If there is a mafia-role blocker, he would have targetted Ythill, the SK could have targetted Claus meanwhile. What is the likelyhood of this?

Calling someone's vig target "odd" isn't really a fact that can be proven. However, he did list his vig targets initially after he claimed as Incognito first and me second. So one of two things happened:
1) Later events in the day either pushed myself/incognito down or Claus up.
2) He was lying so the mafia/doctor wouldn't know who he was targeting. Maybe he was afraid the doctor would try to protect his target if the doctor thought the target was town.

Roleblocker is interesting, and something I hadn't really considered. Which I should have, as I'm playing newbie 539, which is Pie E7. I'm not sure if the mafia would have wanted to roleblock AND kill Ythill, especially if they thought his target would be a town member. Then again, they didn't have too many other choices. Finally, I just don't really see a SK, unless we get two NK's again, I'm not worried about it for now.

492. Shteven gives also a more possibilities of line-up I think it is to early to use lineup considerations now Shteven implies that Ythill lied about his one-shot vig, but that is speculation, mods do not specify all details of a role at the deadscene. Vig could be one-time vig, odd nights vig, ...

You're correct, it's too early for line-up speculation. Which makes your response to 491 strange. As well as my just above response. Hmmm... Just pointing out the hypocrisy I was happy enough to join. As for one shot vs regular vig, I guess I'll just have to wait, as I didn't get a response and I assume that was deliberate. It doesn't really matter much going forward.

Most of the rest of your post I like. I'm a bit uncertain who this neutral faction would be if it's not an SK, but well, let's bring that up day 3.

[Shteven]

I REALLY don't like your discarding of Claus's list.

Also, there can't be a nurse otherwise Ythill would still be alive. Unless...If an SK AND mafia targetted Ythill, and a doc protected, would the overkill still kill him, or would the doc's protection save from both? I assume it's the latter, it makes more sense.

Doctor protection is almost universally only good for 1 kill. 2 kills + 1 doc protection is still a kill.

Also, I've got a proposal. It seems like half of us are ready to swear by Claus' list, and the other half think it's useless. I'd like to see people start making cases based on what he said, rather than what group their target was in.

[Incognito]

491.

Shteven says it is odd that Ythill attacked CLaus.

Do we know that as a fact? If there is a mafia-role blocker, he would have targetted Ythill, the SK could have targetted Claus meanwhile. What is the likelyhood of this?

Hjallti, your statement above seems weird to me especially coupled with your closing statement where you mention that you believe my pro-town Mason claim. If there is a mafia role-blocker and the role-blocker knew that Ythill was targeting town (me), why would the role-blocker block Ythill's action? The role-blocker would more likely allow the kill to go through under the assumption that the one-shot night-kill vig is targeting town while thinking he's targeting scum. That would allow for more than one town-kill during Night 1 which would be something that scum would not pass up. Also I think Ythill's "bah" post was probably a good indication that it was he who killed Claus. He

did

say "w00t! go town" or something along those lines.

I also don't like how you're trying to lead the cop. Why should the cop investigate me to determine if I'm telling the truth about my claim? MafiaSSK has already confirmed that he is in fact my Mason buddy and unfortunately, I will most likely be NK-ed tonight since the scum would know that I'm a confirmed townie. I would think a potential cop investigation of me would be completely useless considering the fact that I'll probably end up dead tomorrow morning. This was also partially the reason why I did claim Mason; I didn't want a potential cop to waste an investigation on either me or MafiaSSK when we're both confirmed town. I'd rather the cop direct investigations against everyone else to narrow the suspects down even further.

FoS: Hjallti

[Nanosauromo]

And He Doth Spoke, Let The Votes Be Counted

Jester - 1 (Xtoxm)
Shteven - 1 (kuribo)
Xtoxm - 1 (Incognito)

Not voting - 6 (Shteven, MafiaSSK, Gorgon, Hjallti, Justin Playfair, Jester)

9 alive, 5 to lynch!