Newbie 549: (Game Over)

[Sir Tornado]

That leaves just Rosso.

[Battousai]

after rosso posts again, then I say we lynch joan.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
ting =) (1): Battousai

Not Voting (4): Sir Tornado, Rosso Carne, ting =), niltiacjoan

With 5 alive it is 3 to lynch.

[niltiacjoan]

Alright, you people wait for Rosso to post. I'll be over here reminding myself this will help the town and I'll still win.

[Battousai]

ya, even if you get lynched joan and you are town you will still win.

[Rosso Carne]

=/

wishing i could counterclaim. that inv by batt isamong the most scummy things ive ever seen.

ill HAMMAH! though.

[Battousai]

UNVOTE

VOTE: joan

[Sir Tornado]

Rosso seems town and ting and battousai are both confirmed.

vote joan

ting make sure you protect battousai tonight if joan is town. Battousai, investigate me or Rosso if joan is town.

[Sir Tornado]

Someone hammer please.

[Rosso Carne]

HAMMAH!

vote joan

[ting =)]

Huh? I don't get to hammer both the scum? *pouts

I claim dibs on hammering ross if joan is town. =P

[bird1111]

You string up niltialicjoan. You check his house, and find it similar to alvinz95's, only without the roleblocking materials.

niltaicjoan, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 2

Town wins!

Alive:
Battousai-Cop
ting =)-Doc
Rosso Carne-Townie
Sir Tornado-Townie

Dead:
alvinz95, replacing Powerful Wizard IRL, Mafia Roleblocker, lynched Day 1
BlckKnght, replacing SilverConqueror, Townie, killed Night 1
niltiacjoan, replacing Glowie, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 2

Battousai investigated BlckKnght night 1
ting =) protected Battousai night 1
niltiacjoan kiled BlckKnght night 1

Sorry to alvinz95 for mistankenly telling him that BlckKnght was his partner.

[ting =)]

Wooot~! =)

I had fun you guys. And I learned a lot. Hope I get to play with you guys again sometime.

[BlckKnght]

Awesome! Way to go Town.

I feel pretty good about my play in this game, sticking with the PWIRL/alvinz95 lynch, FoSing niltiacjoan and drawing her night kill. I definitely should have noticed and responded to the implied connection in the post alvinz made, though, shortly before we lynched him.

I still think Rosso's play style is crazy, but he was very consistent in it and it turned out that he was correct.

[Sir Tornado]

Bah. The Day 2 was awful. It reminded me of watching a boring soccer match between 2 ultra defensive teams. It was more like an excercise in logic than a mafia game.

Still, as the head coaches of the above mentioned teams would say, it's result that matters.

[Rosso Carne]

this game should be a testament that pieC9 does not work.

[ting =)]

I think it's a pie e7. And yes, day 2 was not at all as fun as day 1. It's just the whole, 'muahahah didn't screw up my first game, yay' that made me happy about day 2.

Just game theory related question for Sir T though:
Am I correct in thinking that a day 2 cop claim will always be good in pie e7?

Even if we lynch the goon and the roleblocker lives, the cop claiming in day 2 gives 2, or at the very least, one confirmed town. If he doesn't claim, we mislynch, and he gets nk'd night 2, that's no confirmed town, and day 3 lylo. He's guaranteed to die night 2 if he claims with the roleblocker alive, but he atleast narrows down the list.

If a mislynch happens on day 1 and we have day 2 lylo, and assuming random numbers, we have a 1/5 chance of getting a scum. If the cop claims, and again assuming random numbers, that's a 1/4 chance of getting scum, 1/3 if he investigated a townie who didn't die in the night, and 1/1 if he investigated a scum. Assuming he investigated a scum, we have 1/2 chance of it being the roleblocker. The best case scenario of him investigating a scum and it being the roleblocker is 1/12. The worse case scenario of him dying in night 1 is 1/6. The scenario of him living through day 1, and dying in night 2 if he doesn't claim is 5/30, greater than 1/12.

If he waits till day 3, at worst, he investigates town who gets nk'd, and he reveals only himself. At best, it's a win, but all this is assuming that they get through the lylo, and the cop survives night 2, and there's no wifom involved, just random numbers.

Even assuming we end up losing the doctor night 1, or lynching him day 1 - the cop claim, even if it kills the cop, significantly raises the odds of pulling through the day 2 lylo, right? Compared to running the risk of mislynch on day 2 lylo, and the cop surving night 2 to report till day 3, and being able to sift through fake claims and wifom.

I know the way the players play, and scum tells and things like that affect the game quite a lot, but assuming none of those, would a cop claim be the ideal day 2 play?

[Rosso Carne]

if mafia rb dies then cop claim is auto win as long as no PR has died.

[ting =)]

Yeah, but I'm asking about all other cases as well. RB kill is the only auto win case for a claim. I'm curious if a cop claim is also the best case in other day 2 scenarios. Doc claims are out of the question because they're dead in night 2 after claiming. They'll be more useful not claiming so they could maybe get another save in. Cop claims would also tell the doctor who to protect, besides the fact that it narrows down the possible scum list.

I haven't bothered to consider all possible scenarios and whether or not the cop claim would be good in each case, and I also haven't bothered to calculate all the statistics. I'm just wondering if, as a general rule, cop claim day 2 is the best play.

[Rosso Carne]

well there sould be no auto win condition at all.

[ting =)]

Well, yes. It's unfair to the scum, but only if the town actually manages to get the RB. Finding scum will be hard if the scum play well, and even if you think you've managed to find scum, there's no way to know if he's the roleblocker, since there's no tells distinct towards to the RB that won't apply to goon. It makes the game slanted towards town I think, but not so much so.

My question isn't really one of balance though. The setup is currently being played, and I'm just wondering about what strategies are ideal for the town on day 2.

On another note, I've been reading up the other games. There's this set up called california which seems pretty good. Since there's no doc, a cop claim will result in the cop being nk'd, and since he's the only cop, it makes cop claims a more last ditch thing. It sounds pretty balanced to me, though slightly slanted towards scum, but I've never played one, so I wouldn't know.

[Sir Tornado]

Even if we lynch the goon and the roleblocker lives, the cop claiming in day 2 gives 2, or at the very least, one confirmed town. If he doesn't claim, we mislynch, and he gets nk'd night 2, that's no confirmed town, and day 3 lylo. He's guaranteed to die night 2 if he claims with the roleblocker alive, but he atleast narrows down the list.

If he has an innocent result, then he should totally claim. If doc is not dead, and the doc subsequently claims, you still get 3 confirmed roles (with luck, cop would not have investigated the doc) and thus bringing it down to 2 unconfirmed, one of whom is mafia RB (which is, btw, assured win for town). But this isn't fool proof, yet it is better than no claim scenario.

If a mislynch happens on day 1 and we have day 2 lylo, and assuming random numbers, we have a 1/5 chance of getting a scum. If the cop claims, and again assuming random numbers, that's a 1/4 chance of getting scum, 1/3 if he investigated a townie who didn't die in the night, and 1/1 if he investigated a scum. Assuming he investigated a scum, we have 1/2 chance of it being the roleblocker. The best case scenario of him investigating a scum and it being the roleblocker is 1/12. The worse case scenario of him dying in night 1 is 1/6. The scenario of him living through day 1, and dying in night 2 if he doesn't claim is 5/30, greater than 1/12.

If mislynch occurs, I would, as scum have mafia goon claim cop at some point before the real cop claims (if I am mafia). For some reason, people tend to believe claims more than counter claims (especially a claim with innocent result would be great here). Still, claiming cop at LyLo without a guilty is a bit risky. The town, being on LyLo can be panicky and can disbelieve your claim. I suppose, in the end, it depends on how well the cop has played on D1 (whether he is looking pro-town or not, etc). I think that plays a pretty important role in town believing or disbelieving a cop claim in LyLo. Had Battousai, for instance, claimed cop (legitimately in this game) at LyLo, I would probably have not believed him and could have perhaps gone on to mislynch him causing the town to lose the game.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

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