With
Deadline will be
Nightkill speculation is always very WIFOMy. I made my case. I don't think it's particularly strong, but making a case, voting, and then watching reactions is about the only way to derive connections. If we have two scumgroups, you're going to have scumbuddies scrambling to defend each other and/or attack people for attacking their buddy.OhGodMyLife wrote:Bookitty, I've given you my defense to your initial post against me, and you've said yourself that the bit about Fonz's death is extremely WIFOM, so what else can I do to convince you? Have you got anything to say to my last post? You've gone on to discuss the situation several times with various people, but haven't addressed me on the topic again, yet you still keep your vote on me.
Did it warrant an explanation? He had claimed scum.17: Votes Egr. No explanation
Okay. I will reexamine those responses again.OGML wrote: Vollkan, not sure what I can tell you. This looks like the same case bookitty made on me, but bookended by a post-by-post of everything else I've done around it. I've already said what I can about your numbers eight and nine. I was wrong about egruntz. I was right about xyl, and wrong to unvote him, but clearly he was doing a good job since my attack on him brought me under pressure from fonz, a townie.
That's what I get for using the view in isolation function.OGML wrote: Did it warrant an explanation? He had claimed scum.
I don’t quite follow the logic here. OhGodMyLife and I are suspicious because we voted for Egruntz after he claimed scum? At the point that Egruntz claimed he was three votes away from getting lynched. After claiming scum, who here would not have voted for him? I think everyone in this game would have, regardless of alignment. Korlash, OGML, and myself just happened to be the next three players to log on after his claim.Bookitty wrote:I'm suspicious of Snaps and OGML for another reason, though; the three people who voted egruntz AFTER he admitted to being scum were Korlash, Snaps, and OGML. I do NOT think scum would bus their teammate, knowing there were two scumgroups. But once he admitted it? Why not take the townie points for being in on the lynch?
I belive a more accurate statement would be, “lurkers sometimes don’t defend themselves.” Many times when the lurker is called out, he will throw up some defensive posts. Depending on how the lurker reacts can tell something about his alignment. Also, sometimes when the lurker doesn’t defend himself, his scum buddies might.OhGodMyLife wrote:Lurkerhunting is in essence looking active and vocal without ever risking a backlash from your actions, because lurkers don't defend themselves.
I don't remember what this logical fallacy is called, so I'll just call it the "you suck at stats" fallacy. Just because the scum shown so far were extremely active doesn't mean we're "due for lurkerscum", any more than we're due for a monster attack (they've been so rare recently!).snaps wrote: So far, in this game two scum have been found, neither of which were lurkers. I believe there is a good chance we still have lurker scum among us.
I'm beginning to think panzer is scum based on that and:panzer wrote: and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.
Panzer is likely in a scumgroup egruntz isn't in. Trying to eliminate the possibility of crosskills seems like a very good motive for suggesting that we reduce the information we get each day, and saying things like that about the scummy is just ugh.As to my musings of the setup, I have been saying that there are 2 groups of 3 all game. I cannot say much more right now with out giving to much of my thought process then I'm willing right now. I can promise that it will make sense in time, as most things do.
I think the point Bookitty is making (if I am thinking on the same wavelength) is that the scum of Egr's group would most most likely have bussed him once he had claimed scum; once it was certain that he was a goner. In other words, we have the rats running aboard the sinking ship.Snaps_the_Pirate wrote:Bookitty wrote:I'm suspicious of Snaps and OGML for another reason, though; the three people who voted egruntz AFTER he admitted to being scum were Korlash, Snaps, and OGML. I do NOT think scum would bus their teammate, knowing there were two scumgroups. But once he admitted it? Why not take the townie points for being in on the lynch?
I don’t quite follow the logic here. OhGodMyLife and I are suspicious because we voted for Egruntz after he claimed scum? At the point that Egruntz claimed he was three votes away from getting lynched. After claiming scum, who here would not have voted for him? I think everyone in this game would have, regardless of alignment. Korlash, OGML, and myself just happened to be the next three players to log on after his claim.
How many mafia games have you been in? I highly doubt enough to warrant an assertion that at least one scum will always/very usually be a lurker.Snaps wrote: In every mafia game I have played in and in almost every game I have followed there have been scum quietly staying out of the spotlight, posting just enough to keep from being replaced. So far, in this game two scum have been found, neither of which were lurkers. I believe there is a good chance we still have lurker scum among us.
In post 9 (OGML, oldest first), OGML votes Xyl saying:OGML wrote: Bookitty, I didn't consider my attack against xyl particularly strong at the time, which is why I was persuaded so quickly to unvote. Fonz's quick defense of him also made me vacillate, because I was getting a pro-town vibe from him regardless of his coming after me. Nobody else seemed to feel suspicious of xyl at all, but I was trying to bring up a topic of discussion aside from DS and egruntz, as I said in the post you quoted. Obviously I failed on that note, as DS/eteo ended up getting lynched anyway. Yeah it looks bad that egruntz did turn out to be newbscum trying to get us to no-lynch, but I honestly just bought the argument that it was just people trying to lynch a newb for newbtells instead of real scum tells.
Now, the first part against Xyl (third para) is very weak indeed. Vague "you've been making me uneasy". He equivocates by saying it could be playstyle, and then moves on to request more content and less useless clutter. This is weak in itself, and even OGML seems unconvinced (as he later declared in answer to Boo). Despite this, he makes a fairly strong declaration ("really struck me the wrong way") against the sentence by Xyl he quotes. Not really vote-worthy at all (especially on its own), since it is a theory position.OhGodMyLife wrote:Unvote: Mills
I actually don't see the above as an OMGUS argument, rather I think mills makes a good point about CKD's input and general activity level. Certainly enough to erase my original suspicions that were the basis of my vote.
Phate, you started off the game announcing that you'd be V/LA so your absence is excused, but since returning you've done nothing but have a discussion about what constitutes anti-town and whether snaps talks too much. Trying to stay off the map?
Xylthixlm, you've been making me uneasy lately. Could just be your playstyle, but I'd like to hear more out of you that just one liners, and you've been way too focused on the way that snaps has been writing rather than whats actually going on in the game. Also this:really struck me the wrong way. Lets leave the stupid people alone and go after the scummy people, shall we?Xylthixlm wrote:Sufficiently bad idiots can be antitown without being scum.
Vote: Xylthixlm
The "that" which I have bolded is ambiguous. What were you referring to? I guess you meant Xyl's post where he explains why he thinks non-scum can be anti-town. Xyl's answer is crap, quite frankly (it's in Xyl 31; I will attack it if you want me to). For someone that apparently had such a huge problem with his first post, I find it odd that you would just retreat from the offensive. You then say that your biggest motivation was to "get people to look elsewhere" (which you later repeat). I refer you to my previous questioning on this point. The fact you then vote Mills (for being 'overeactive') makes this look even worse.OhGodMyLife wrote:OK, Xyl, you've more than reassured me, so thank you for addressingthat. The biggest reason for my vote was because I think the DS bandwagon and constant talk of egruntz' no-lynch theory were consuming too much of the town's attention and I wanted to get people to look elsewhere.
Unvote, Vote: Mills
I'm still of the opinion that the way the bandwagon started was BS, which was my original reason for voting mills. Since then he's made some good points on other matters, specifically CKD, who still needs to respond to the issues brought up. However, in the past few pages Mills has been extremely overreactive, and having done a reread of his posts from the beginning, the way he started the DS bandwagon still looks scummier than hell.
"I'm metagaming as scum and making up a dumb excuse. Appeal to authority!"Panzerjager wrote:Xyzzy, I'm withholding information. Think Jdodge. Why would JD withhold information?
I'm going purely on maths, which I'm horrific at, but this is untrue, based on the numbers we have left.panzer wrote: and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.
Even not accounting for SK or vig, once one scum group is eliminated, they presumably lose their ability to kill people at night.liamcool wrote:I'm going purely on maths, which I'm horrific at, but this is untrue, based on the numbers we have left.panzer wrote: and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.
There's 12 players left. Say there's two groups of 3 (which, while not certain, is reasonably likely). That would mean we have 4 scum out of 12 players, or a 33% chance of lynching scum. If we kill scum today, and then lose two people to scum night kills, we then have 3 of out 9 left, still 33%. If we lynch scum from the same group as before, we then have 2 scum out of 7 players, which is somewhere in the region of 28%, no?
And yes, I know this isn't accounting for SK kills, vigs, whatever.