Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!


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Post Post #575 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:30 am

Post by Elias_the_thief »

The Official "running out of witty comments" Flavorless Votecount:

Xyzzy - 2
(Snaps the pirate, Antithesis)
Rishi - 1
(Skruffs)
OhGodMyLife - 1
(Bookitty)
Phate - 0

Antithesis - 0

Bookitty - 0

liamcool - 0

Snaps the pirate - 0

panzerjager - 0

Hasdgfas - 0

Skruffs - 0

Vollkan - 0

Nobody - 8
(Vollkan, Phate, hasdgfas, Xyzzy, liamcool, OhGodMyLife, Rishi, panzerjager)

With
12
alive, it will take
7
to lynch.


Deadline will be
Sunday, March 9th, at 10 PM EST.

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Post Post #576 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 1:52 pm

Post by OhGodMyLife »

The case against xyzzy has merit to it, but aside from that I can't see what snaps has done all game aside from lurkerhunt and make pretty lists of activity levels. And talk like a pirate even though it wasn't talk like a pirate day. Very much like hiding in plain sight. I could see them being members of opposing scum groups.

FoS: Xyzzy

Vote: Snaps


Bookitty, I've given you my defense to your initial post against me, and you've said yourself that the bit about Fonz's death is extremely WIFOM, so what else can I do to convince you? Have you got anything to say to my last post? You've gone on to discuss the situation several times with various people, but haven't addressed me on the topic again, yet you still keep your vote on me.
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Post Post #577 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 2:39 pm

Post by Skruffs »

I feel that Panz is probably town.

BooKitty, not so sure, but I tend to feel she is scum in most games with her, I think. (No offense meant!)
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Post Post #578 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:40 pm

Post by Bookitty »

OhGodMyLife wrote:Bookitty, I've given you my defense to your initial post against me, and you've said yourself that the bit about Fonz's death is extremely WIFOM, so what else can I do to convince you? Have you got anything to say to my last post? You've gone on to discuss the situation several times with various people, but haven't addressed me on the topic again, yet you still keep your vote on me.
Nightkill speculation is always very WIFOMy. I made my case. I don't think it's particularly strong, but making a case, voting, and then watching reactions is about the only way to derive connections. If we have two scumgroups, you're going to have scumbuddies scrambling to defend each other and/or attack people for attacking their buddy.

I stated already I wasn't getting much from analysing Xylthixlm (remember, I thought the Fonz might be his buddy at the time, so that's how far off I was) OR by analysing egruntz. So I made the best case I had, which was inspired by a reread of The Fonz and trying to figure out who would be motivated to kill him.

My thought process (and this should NOT be construed as confirmed fact, it's my OPINION only) was that egruntz might have looked like an easy lynch with The Fonz out of the way (Fonz was his main defender) and The Fonz was also leaning on you fairly heavily Day One, OGML. I am guessing that the scum didn't know there were two scumgroups. Thus, if you were scum with egruntz, it might have looked like a two-fer. Egruntzscum wouldn't have a reason to kill The Fonz, because The Fonz was defending him, so that makes egruntz look like town; The Fonz was leaning on you, and you weren't under much suspicion. By killing him, you'd lose your harshest critic, and egruntz would look more town because his defender flipped town.

This is speculation on my part. It's not fact. But it's some of the internal reasoning behind my vote on you. It's one vote, I'm not calling for a bandwagon. I'm not sure why you're reacting so badly to one vote, OGML, but there's my reasoning for it.

As for Panzer, this is the second time he's decided I'm scum (the first time was when the investigation on me was apparently roleblocked and he decided that meant I was the Godfather) with pretty shoddy reasoning. Since it seems pretty likely that we have two scum groups, I'm going to tentatively say that in my view he's not paying good attention to the game, rather than behaving scummily. It's possible he's scum trying to set up a fake distancing thing with me in case he gets lynched, but that doesn't seem likely to me. If Panzer is scum, I see no way in which he could be part of egruntz's scumgroup given that he agreed with my reasoning nearly immediately. And he's not choosing easy targets the way I think scum would do.

I clear Vollkan as part of egruntz's scumteam for the same reason. I think Vollkan is town anyway, but I am fairly certain he isn't scum on the same team with egruntz.

I'm suspicious of Snaps and OGML for another reason, though; the three people who voted egruntz AFTER he admitted to being scum were Korlash, Snaps, and OGML. I do NOT think scum would bus their teammate, knowing there were two scumgroups. But once he admitted it? Why not take the townie points for being in on the lynch?

Just some thoughts. And no offense taken, Skruffs.
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Post Post #579 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:51 pm

Post by Snaps_the_Pirate »

OGML wrote:I can't see what snaps has done all game aside from lurkerhunt
”Lurkerhunting” is a very viable strategy. How many games have been played where in the mafia sat quietly by while the more vocal innocents lynched each other? If you want to find someone, you should look where they hide.
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Post Post #580 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:29 pm

Post by OhGodMyLife »

In my experience, the place where scum hide is in plain sight. Lurkerhunting is in essence looking active and vocal without ever risking a backlash from your actions, because lurkers don't defend themselves.
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Post Post #581 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:02 pm

Post by vollkan »

As promised:

PBPA of OGML

0: Random vote
1: Switches to Xylthix
2: Serious vote for Fonz for him attacking Boo for voting a 'Townsperson' (newb) on the basis that he had said he had played elsewhere.
3: nothing
4: Criticises Mills pushing meta-lynch of DS. Thinks egr is pro-town because he was forthcoming about misquoting, but says he is drastically wrong about No Lynch.
5: Votes Mills for pushing a meta lynch of DS. Thinks egr is doing his best, just in a different way.
6: Asks xyl why is always trying to BW
7: Thinks it isn't that outlandish that Mills is a lyncher
8: Unvotes Mills for making a good point about CKD. Thinks Phate is laying low. Xyl is making him uneasy and he wants to hear more. Also doesn't like Xyl pursuining egruntz for his idioticanti-town play. Votes Xyl. I think this attack here is very weak ; the main crux of it seems to just be playstyle-based, which makes me smell distancing. Another possibility, given by Book, is that OGML is actually seeking to defend his buddy egruntz by deflecting away from him.
9: Interesting post. He unvotes saying that Xyl has reassured him and thanks him for addressing 'that' (it's unclear what he is referring to). The reasons OGML gave for voting initially were Xyl's use of one-liners, his focus on Snaps' style and his attacks on Egr. Xyl's play, however, did not improve at all: He just kept giving theory and swiping at DS for lurking and BWing. Plus, his explanation of the egr thing was not fantastic, particularly to the extent that it makes sense for OGML to just drop it. The way he just drops this is suspicious in and of itself, but given that Xyl was scum, it continues the appearance of distancing. Despite having just unvoted, he now revotes Mills for being 'overeactive' (a voting justification that I loathe and which always smells opportuntistic to me) and says that, after rereading, Mills' wagoning of DS looks scummy. He never explains why, havnig just said this suspciion was 'erased' he double-takes on it. It is scummy, then it's erased, and then it's scummy again.
10: *facepalm* after Mills asks for replacement
11: Now he is ready to lynch Mills for his 'very scummy actions' (which he just previously "erased") and his meltdown (how is the meltdown scummy?)
12: Post references
13: Swaps to CKD for not contributing.
14: Opposes Eteo wagon
15: Thinks NKs are ironic. Expresses agreement with the egr case.
16: nothing
17: Votes Egr. No explanation
18: Had the same thought about the colours and doesn't think it is a legitimate basis for attack
19: Asks Boo for reasons
20: Explains his Xyl. Didn't think case was strong. Didn't like pursuit of newb-tells.
21: FoSes zz. Votes snaps, for doing nothing but lurker hunting.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I find the behaviour in posts 8 and 9 the most interesting.

FoS: OGML
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Post Post #582 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:49 am

Post by OhGodMyLife »

Vollkan, not sure what I can tell you. This looks like the same case bookitty made on me, but bookended by a post-by-post of everything else I've done around it. I've already said what I can about your numbers eight and nine. I was wrong about egruntz. I was right about xyl, and wrong to unvote him, but clearly he was doing a good job since my attack on him brought me under pressure from fonz, a townie.

For the majority of day one I was caught up in trying to untangle the mills/DS saga. Apparently they were both town, so a lot of good it did us.
17: Votes Egr. No explanation
Did it warrant an explanation? He had claimed scum.
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Post Post #583 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:30 am

Post by vollkan »

OGML wrote: Vollkan, not sure what I can tell you. This looks like the same case bookitty made on me, but bookended by a post-by-post of everything else I've done around it. I've already said what I can about your numbers eight and nine. I was wrong about egruntz. I was right about xyl, and wrong to unvote him, but clearly he was doing a good job since my attack on him brought me under pressure from fonz, a townie.
Okay. I will reexamine those responses again.
OGML wrote: Did it warrant an explanation? He had claimed scum.
:lol: That's what I get for using the view in isolation function.
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Post Post #584 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:14 pm

Post by PJ. »

I think OGML is a scum that can now claim that he has been onto one scum and the lynch of another. The more I look at it I think he is today's play.

I'm also quite suspicious of Snaps, for the reason Bookitty has mentioned and I have just been getting this underlying gut thing with him. Everytime I read his post, a piece of me is like "why haven't I lynched him yet" It reminds me of the way I had pondered in my off-the-internet-in-the-shower musings of Xyl, I just never had a good reason to mention Xyl other then gut which I tend to dread doing.

In short, I think snaps is scummy, but OGML seems more likely to be paired with egruntz and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.

As to my musings of the setup, I have been saying that there are 2 groups of 3 all game. I cannot say much more right now with out giving to much of my thought process then I'm willing right now. I can promise that it will make sense in time, as most things do.
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Post Post #585 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:27 pm

Post by Snaps_the_Pirate »

Bookitty wrote:I'm suspicious of Snaps and OGML for another reason, though; the three people who voted egruntz AFTER he admitted to being scum were Korlash, Snaps, and OGML. I do NOT think scum would bus their teammate, knowing there were two scumgroups. But once he admitted it? Why not take the townie points for being in on the lynch?
I don’t quite follow the logic here. OhGodMyLife and I are suspicious because we voted for Egruntz after he claimed scum? At the point that Egruntz claimed he was three votes away from getting lynched. After claiming scum, who here would not have voted for him? I think everyone in this game would have, regardless of alignment. Korlash, OGML, and myself just happened to be the next three players to log on after his claim.

OhGodMyLife wrote:Lurkerhunting is in essence looking active and vocal without ever risking a backlash from your actions, because lurkers don't defend themselves.
I belive a more accurate statement would be, “lurkers sometimes don’t defend themselves.” Many times when the lurker is called out, he will throw up some defensive posts. Depending on how the lurker reacts can tell something about his alignment. Also, sometimes when the lurker doesn’t defend himself, his scum buddies might.

In every mafia game I have played in and in almost every game I have followed there have been scum quietly staying out of the spotlight, posting just enough to keep from being replaced. So far, in this game two scum have been found, neither of which were lurkers. I believe there is a good chance we still have lurker scum among us.
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Post Post #586 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:47 pm

Post by OhGodMyLife »

Snaps, I see what you've been doing as staying just on the fringes of the spotlight, in view, but not on anybody's radar until now. I think this is more insidious than the lurkers. The answer there is not to vote for them, but to have them replaced.

I seem to be quickly becoming the heir presumptive to the mantle of next to be lynched, at least among those players who are active. The case against me revolves around the day one interaction with Xyl, which is being read as an attempt to draw heat off of egruntz, or alternately as a distancing attempt with xyl himself. Kind of puts me between a rock and a hard place. I've already said my piece about this, but it seems as though this hasn't helped.
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Post Post #587 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 4:33 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

I'm not feeling the heat on OGML, personally. It seems like people are making too much of a little thing. Maybe I need to reread that part of day 1, but I think ZZ is a better lynch, because he's been almost seeming not to lurk, yet he hasn't contributed much of anything useful.

vote: zz
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Post Post #588 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:49 pm

Post by xyzzy »

(Psst... I'm zz)
snaps wrote: So far, in this game two scum have been found, neither of which were lurkers. I believe there is a good chance we still have lurker scum among us.
I don't remember what this logical fallacy is called, so I'll just call it the "you suck at stats" fallacy. Just because the scum shown so far were extremely active doesn't mean we're "due for lurkerscum", any more than we're due for a monster attack (they've been so rare recently!).
panzer wrote: and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.
I'm beginning to think panzer is scum based on that and:
As to my musings of the setup, I have been saying that there are 2 groups of 3 all game. I cannot say much more right now with out giving to much of my thought process then I'm willing right now. I can promise that it will make sense in time, as most things do.
Panzer is likely in a scumgroup egruntz isn't in. Trying to eliminate the possibility of crosskills seems like a very good motive for suggesting that we reduce the information we get each day, and saying things like that about the scummy is just ugh.

Thinking snaps is scum, not sure with who yet. OGML might be scum, as people have suggested, and snaps-egruntz-OGML seems possible.
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Post Post #589 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:26 pm

Post by PJ. »

Xyzzy, I'm withholding information. Think Jdodge. Why would JD withhold information?
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Post Post #590 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:27 pm

Post by PJ. »

Ebwop:
Vote:OGML
forgot to do this earlier.
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Post Post #591 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:23 am

Post by vollkan »

Snaps_the_Pirate wrote:
Bookitty wrote:I'm suspicious of Snaps and OGML for another reason, though; the three people who voted egruntz AFTER he admitted to being scum were Korlash, Snaps, and OGML. I do NOT think scum would bus their teammate, knowing there were two scumgroups. But once he admitted it? Why not take the townie points for being in on the lynch?

I don’t quite follow the logic here. OhGodMyLife and I are suspicious because we voted for Egruntz after he claimed scum? At the point that Egruntz claimed he was three votes away from getting lynched. After claiming scum, who here would not have voted for him? I think everyone in this game would have, regardless of alignment. Korlash, OGML, and myself just happened to be the next three players to log on after his claim.
I think the point Bookitty is making (if I am thinking on the same wavelength) is that the scum of Egr's group would most most likely have bussed him once he had claimed scum; once it was certain that he was a goner. In other words, we have the rats running aboard the sinking ship.

However, it is a fair rebuttal that any decent player - town or scum (be it Egr's group or otherwise) would have voted egruntz at that point (Indeed, Korlash - the deceased doc - was the penultimate voter). It is still unlikely that Egr's own group would have joined quickly (unless they sensed impending doom), but that's to say nothing about the other scumgroup.

This was the Egr wagon (Elias doesn't have the completed list in a vc):
Bookitty, Panzerjager
|My PBPA|
hasdgfas, Phate
| Scum claim |
Vollkan, Snaps, Korlash, OGML

(Ftr, I also voted Egruntz after he had claimed. However, that was simply due to the fact that (as I have done with OGML) I gave my PBPAee the right of reply. Egruntz's reply was to not address my PBPA and claim scum - both unforgivable in the circumstances).
Snaps wrote: In every mafia game I have played in and in almost every game I have followed there have been scum quietly staying out of the spotlight, posting just enough to keep from being replaced. So far, in this game two scum have been found, neither of which were lurkers. I believe there is a good chance we still have lurker scum among us.
How many mafia games have you been in? I highly doubt enough to warrant an assertion that at least one scum will always/very usually be a lurker.

Now, as promised, I have reviewed OGML's responses to Bookitty as suggested:
OGML wrote: Bookitty, I didn't consider my attack against xyl particularly strong at the time, which is why I was persuaded so quickly to unvote. Fonz's quick defense of him also made me vacillate, because I was getting a pro-town vibe from him regardless of his coming after me. Nobody else seemed to feel suspicious of xyl at all, but I was trying to bring up a topic of discussion aside from DS and egruntz, as I said in the post you quoted. Obviously I failed on that note, as DS/eteo ended up getting lynched anyway. Yeah it looks bad that egruntz did turn out to be newbscum trying to get us to no-lynch, but I honestly just bought the argument that it was just people trying to lynch a newb for newbtells instead of real scum tells.
In post 9 (OGML, oldest first), OGML votes Xyl saying:
OhGodMyLife wrote:
Unvote: Mills

I actually don't see the above as an OMGUS argument, rather I think mills makes a good point about CKD's input and general activity level. Certainly enough to erase my original suspicions that were the basis of my vote.

Phate, you started off the game announcing that you'd be V/LA so your absence is excused, but since returning you've done nothing but have a discussion about what constitutes anti-town and whether snaps talks too much. Trying to stay off the map?

Xylthixlm, you've been making me uneasy lately. Could just be your playstyle, but I'd like to hear more out of you that just one liners, and you've been way too focused on the way that snaps has been writing rather than whats actually going on in the game. Also this:
Xylthixlm wrote:Sufficiently bad idiots can be antitown without being scum.
really struck me the wrong way. Lets leave the stupid people alone and go after the scummy people, shall we?
Vote: Xylthixlm
Now, the first part against Xyl (third para) is very weak indeed. Vague "you've been making me uneasy". He equivocates by saying it could be playstyle, and then moves on to request more content and less useless clutter. This is weak in itself, and even OGML seems unconvinced (as he later declared in answer to Boo). Despite this, he makes a fairly strong declaration ("really struck me the wrong way") against the sentence by Xyl he quotes. Not really vote-worthy at all (especially on its own), since it is a theory position.

Now, OGML you say this was to bring up an alternative topic to DS and egruntz. You've acknowledged that this looks bad, given egruntz's reveal. The other question I would ask is why you would present something so trivial as what you Xyl for. I mean, seeking productive discussion is all well and good, but the 'case' you formed was not going to lead anywhere. You called for Xyl to post more, made weak kidglove hits at his playstyle, and then made a puffed-up strike against a theory point.

I admit here that my read on this is split: The attack is so weak that it reeks of distancing to Xyl. However, it is also readable as an effort to side-track. I fail to see how, you could (as you declare) reasonably try to spark an alternative discussion based on such a weak case. Tell me, what did you actually expect to happen? You have even yourself admitted that it was weak.

From there, 5 days later, we move to this:
OhGodMyLife wrote:OK, Xyl, you've more than reassured me, so thank you for addressing
that
. The biggest reason for my vote was because I think the DS bandwagon and constant talk of egruntz' no-lynch theory were consuming too much of the town's attention and I wanted to get people to look elsewhere.

Unvote, Vote: Mills


I'm still of the opinion that the way the bandwagon started was BS, which was my original reason for voting mills. Since then he's made some good points on other matters, specifically CKD, who still needs to respond to the issues brought up. However, in the past few pages Mills has been extremely overreactive, and having done a reread of his posts from the beginning, the way he started the DS bandwagon still looks scummier than hell.
The "that" which I have bolded is ambiguous. What were you referring to? I guess you meant Xyl's post where he explains why he thinks non-scum can be anti-town. Xyl's answer is crap, quite frankly (it's in Xyl 31; I will attack it if you want me to). For someone that apparently had such a huge problem with his first post, I find it odd that you would just retreat from the offensive. You then say that your biggest motivation was to "get people to look elsewhere" (which you later repeat). I refer you to my previous questioning on this point. The fact you then vote Mills (for being 'overeactive') makes this look even worse.
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Post Post #592 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:58 am

Post by xyzzy »

Panzerjager wrote:Xyzzy, I'm withholding information. Think Jdodge. Why would JD withhold information?
"I'm metagaming as scum and making up a dumb excuse. Appeal to authority!"
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Post Post #593 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:51 am

Post by liamcool »

panzer wrote: and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.
I'm going purely on maths, which I'm horrific at, but this is untrue, based on the numbers we have left.

There's 12 players left. Say there's two groups of 3 (which, while not certain, is reasonably likely). That would mean we have 4 scum out of 12 players, or a 33% chance of lynching scum. If we kill scum today, and then lose two people to scum night kills, we then have 3 of out 9 left, still 33%. If we lynch scum from the same group as before, we then have 2 scum out of 7 players, which is somewhere in the region of 28%, no?

And yes, I know this isn't accounting for SK kills, vigs, whatever.
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Post Post #594 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:09 am

Post by Rishi »

liamcool wrote:
panzer wrote: and it's if we eliminate one scum group, it's easier to weed out the second.
I'm going purely on maths, which I'm horrific at, but this is untrue, based on the numbers we have left.

There's 12 players left. Say there's two groups of 3 (which, while not certain, is reasonably likely). That would mean we have 4 scum out of 12 players, or a 33% chance of lynching scum. If we kill scum today, and then lose two people to scum night kills, we then have 3 of out 9 left, still 33%. If we lynch scum from the same group as before, we then have 2 scum out of 7 players, which is somewhere in the region of 28%, no?

And yes, I know this isn't accounting for SK kills, vigs, whatever.
Even not accounting for SK or vig, once one scum group is eliminated, they presumably lose their ability to kill people at night.

Unless they're super-scum who have ghostly powers!
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Post Post #595 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:32 pm

Post by Skruffs »

I'd be good with a Snaps lynch.
With 18 players I could see two 2 player scum groups. 2 3 player scum groups might be a bit much; the lynch becomes less important than the cross kill factor.

Quick example of what I mean: Assume town always lynches correctly and scum never cross kill or are stopped.
18 with 2 3scum groups:
Tot. # | #Town | #Maf.1 |#Maf.2
18____| 12____| 3_____| 3 Day 1 Begin
17____| 12____| 2_____| 3 Day 1 End
15____| 10____| 2_____| 3 Day 2 Begin
14____| 10____| 2_____| 2 Day 2 End
12____| 8_____| 2_____| 2 Day 3 Begin
11____| 8_____| 1_____| 2 Day 3 End
9_____| 6_____| 1_____| 2 Day 4 Begin
8_____| 6_____| 1_____| 1 Day 4 End
6_____| 4_____| 1_____| 1 Day 5 Begins
At thispoint I'd like to note that at least one scum will make it into end game. Even if scum from group 1 are lynched, reducing the total number of players to 5, the other scum would reduce it to 4 the next night, making it lylo the next day.

A town should never be forced to rely on scum crosskills to win. With three night kills a night, that changes how it works, but a vig is a double edged sword. and we don't even know for sure it's a vig. If it's an SK, then i could see 2 2-man scum groups and the SK, maybe. I unno.
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Post Post #596 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:03 pm

Post by PJ. »

I'm still standing by my statement. Anyway, I'm ready to go with the OGML lynch.
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Post Post #597 (ISO) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:10 am

Post by vollkan »

Coming up next: Review of Snaps
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Post Post #598 (ISO) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:33 pm

Post by Phate »

I'm liking a Snaps lynch. He jumps onto the egruntz-wagon after egruntz claims, and he's spending most of his time poking lurkers and more-or-less ignoring the conversations going on around him.

Vote: Snaps the pirate
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Post Post #599 (ISO) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:43 pm

Post by Phate »

Oh, also: I think 2 mafia groups of 2 would be underpowered, assuming some town power. 3/3 or maybe 3/2 seems more likely.
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