Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[cicero]

I can chat with my existing network whether I'm jailed or not. But I can't add new people to my network if I'm jailed. This is more about practicality than realism. Night talk starts before choices get submitted. So the only way to practically deal with me being jailed and unable to communicate with my existing network would be for Seol to PM me and tell me to stop chatting for the final 24 hours in which I can normally try to communicate with my new networkee. And I doubt my network would even notice at that point.

Anyhoo...

Unvote Curiouskarmadog. Vote No Lynch

[DrippingGoofball]

Not to keep harping on this but the Doc can't self protect. If The Fonz is the only protector left then scum kill him game over.

If that's the case, why are some players considering "no lynch?"

[cicero]

Not to keep harping on this but the Doc can't self protect. If The Fonz is the only protector left then scum kill him game over.

If that's the case, why are some players considering "no lynch?"

Because it isn't game over. We go into the next day 4-3. If we lynch wrong today then scum kills and we go into tomorrow 3-3 (barring a doc protect.)

[The Fonz]

But, again, scum will only kill if they believe it's in their interests so to do. They won't kill just because it would be nice for the town to get some extra information. So the situation tomorrow is either as it is right now, or something that scum concludes would be better than the status quo.

*It occurred to me that if the scum did no kill, we would at least have some powers passed on to Adele, if she's not jailed again. I suppose that's a small benefit.

[curiouskarmadog]

Targetting Yvonne would have been almost as boneheaded.

I disagree, at least if I had jailed Yvonne, I would have jailed one of the two I saw the link between Day one, and Adele could recieved shafted's power.

if we decide to no lynch, why are we talking about what mafia will or wont do...what they should or shouldnt do?

Personally I feel like Yvonne still should be the way to go, but would consider a no lynch if it would fix whatever apparent damage I did last night.

[DrippingGoofball]

We go into the next day 4-3. If we lynch wrong today then scum kills and we go into tomorrow 3-3 (barring a doc protect.)

And you're sure that nothing can go wrong?

Scum has no reason to no-kill?

[shaft.ed]

And you're sure that nothing can go wrong?

Scum has no reason to no-kill?

There's nothing wrong about a no-kill. We're just back where we are now with Adele possibly having new power(s) at her disposal.

[cicero]

Targetting Yvonne would have been almost as boneheaded.

I disagree, at least if I had jailed Yvonne, I would have jailed one of the two I saw the link between Day one, and Adele could recieved shafted's power.

That's why it was

almost

as boneheaded. You couldnt be sure of what Shaft.ed would do. Still can't. Optimal scenario was getting results from both watchers and you jailing someone more useless like DGB, TSQ or me. The idea is to have scum watchers hoist themselves on their own petard. Not have them be able to use you as an excuse. The game isnt yours to solve on your own. It's a team sport.

if we decide to no lynch, why are we talking about what mafia will or wont do...what they should or shouldnt do?

This is a good point and a bad one. If it infers that we shouldnt talk about scum strategy, it goes under what I'm starting to think of as "the fallacy of mafia mental deficiency". Sometimes it's important not to discuss strategy because you dont want the informed minority to know it. But the right move seems to me to be to ask yourself whether they'll figure it out on their own. They arent stupid. In this case if we choose No Lynch we are giving mafia a free move. It is important to discuss the full implications before choosing to do it. The only plus I see from doing it is that Adele could get Shaft.ed's power. Now, since that's the plan, how many different ways could it end up being fucked with by the mafia? A lot. It includes Shaft.ed deciding to motivate someone else to outsmart the mafia, the mafia killing Fonz, the mafia killing shaft.ed, the mafia killing Yvonne. CKD jailing Yvonne while Shaft.ed tries to motivate her... etc. We also need to remember that in terms of power transfer - we don't really have many nights to work with!!! It is already going to be incredibly lucky for town to survive to the end.

All in all, it may be that No Lynch just puts us in the same position we are in today, but with one less pro-town voice, thus making the right lynch very hard to obtain. 4-3 is much worse than 5-2. It's just that it's a little bit better than 3-3

So given all those possibilities, which, if I thought of em off the top of my head, mafia certainly could, it's worth deciding exactly what we hope to get out of the exercise and how we should best go about it. Or whether fortune favors the bold and we should just hold our noses and lynch the most likely scum who, in this case, is you.

Both options are risky and both have their merits.

[The Fonz]

The mafia killing me strongly risks being watched. Of course, there's also the strong possibility of one or both watchers seeing the killer. Then, of course, there's also the possibility both watchers claim to have seen the other kill me. I'm not sure if that's better or worse than the status quo issue.

Then there's the DGB issue. Theoretically, if she's town, there's no reason for scum not to take a shot at her, since no one can be watched killing her, so the WCS is the same as if scum no-killed. So her surviving the night might indicate her being scum. But, of course, scum know this, and could keep her alive in the hope of getting the easy lynch on that logic.

[curiouskarmadog]

yet no one seems to be worried if I get NKed...(sigh)

[DrippingGoofball]

Theoretically, if she's town, there's no reason for scum not to take a shot at her, since no one can be watched killing her

Why on Earth would you point something like that out? Especially since with 2 watchers around, and having a pretty dumb role, I'm not bloody likely to be doc-protected.

[DrippingGoofball]

yet no one seems to be worried if I get NKed...(sigh)

It's OK, you won't be NK'd, not with Fonzie here helping the scum by nailing a target on the back of my head.

[The Fonz]

Theoretically, if she's town, there's no reason for scum not to take a shot at her, since no one can be watched killing her

Why on Earth would you point something like that out? Especially since with 2 watchers around, and having a pretty dumb role, I'm not bloody likely to be doc-protected.

You CAN'T be doc-protected. Why did I mention it? Well, doesn't that seem like an argument against no-lynching to you? Either you die as town, without any chance of catching the killer, or we're left with a wifom-riddled situation tomorrow as to 'did she survive because she's scum, or because scum want us to think that?' Any halfway competent scum would have figured that out anyway, and I very much doubt there's not one competent scum amongst the three.

My point is that scum have sufficiently good options for tonight following a nolynch to make it, in my opinion, not a particularly great option for town.

[Toaster Strudel]

My point is that scum have sufficiently good options for tonight following a nolynch to make it, in my opinion, not a particularly great option for town.

OK, I get it.

[DrippingGoofball]

^^^ My post.

[shaft.ed]

The only plus I see from doing it (no lynch) is that Adele could get Shaft.ed's power.

So you have no reason to believe The Fonz would pass his power on to Adele. Noted.

[cicero]

The only plus I see from doing it (no lynch) is that Adele could get Shaft.ed's power.

So you have no reason to believe The Fonz would pass his power on to Adele. Noted.

Bad notation. I specifically left Fonz out for a couple of reasons. I was hoping it would go unnoticed but since that's a veiled accusation: I'm uncomfortable directing the doc to that extent AND I see a drawback to Adel getting the doc power which I've been mulling. (Obviously I also see the benefit). If she gets the doc power and is scum, it's slightly easier for her to lie to us. I kinda prefer her as a watcher since I dont know her alignment. I'm already deeply uncomfy with how insulated from scrutiny the Fonz is, actually. But I see no drawback to you giving Adele your power. In any event, we

need

to keep whether Fonz will protect Adele as a WIFOM.

But I might be over(or under)thinking this.

[shaft.ed]

I fail to see how having a pair of Docs that can circle protect is a bad thing. One suggestion I would like to put forward. And after your extensive post about what the mafia can figure out for themselves, I find it odd that you'd find such an obvious action something best left unsaid.

If we do No Lynch and no one comes up dead, I think it would be worth not disclosing our targets for the night unless one thinks they may be pertinent to catching scum. This will leave the mafia not knowing what new powers Adele may have or have not aquired during the night phase. If Adele is indeed town aligned this could be a big help.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP, my second sentence paragraph 1 should be first sentence paragraph 2. Sorry for the confusion.

[cicero]

What exactly is supposed to be the scum advantage to this observation you're making about my list? Think these things through. The drawback is, if Adele is scum, she can spend her time protecting her scumbuddies and insisting, like Fonz is, on a policy of non-revelation. (A policy I'm still not very comfortable with, by the way). If she watches, then there's the possibility of her catching someone in the act of a kill AND Yvonne might be able to test her veracity. So it's a greater advantage.

Your no-revelation idea has some merit, but I need to think about it more. Overall I still think the only way for a town win in this game is through full information. Just because mafia doesn't kill doesn't mean we cant scrutinise each others motives for who we chose to target. Remember THREE of us are lying.

[curiouskarmadog]

I think no matter what, tomorrow we claim. Also, I think that the order of the claim should be random with a dice role. I see no merit in not claiming tomorrow and not having the order random.

[The Fonz]

If Mafia doesn't kill, then NONE of us will NEED to lie.

[cicero]

This seems like a great spot to end THIS conversation. It's controversy makes it an uncertainty. Let's keep it that way.

[The Fonz]

GOOD Idea.

I can fully get behind CKD's random claim order idea for tomorrow. Although who randomises it?

[curiouskarmadog]

for shits and giggles Fonz, I think you should claim too...you have had two nights of not claiming...time you did maybe?

I dont care (for randomizer) I dont know anything about the dice option, can you cheat with it? If not we can use that..if it is really random, then I dont care who does it.

[/dice]