Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[Shteven]

Not really too thrilled that Jesse is voting just to end the day. It is tempting to do, but I won't. Kab, please do give us some thoughts in the event you are lynched, which seems likely at this point.

I find this to be even more suspicious. The day has stalled, and believe it or not

somebody

is going to get lynched. And that somebody is Kabenon. To me, it translated to "Everyone look at Gunn if kab comes across as town, even though we all know he's going to get lynched, look at the guy that happens to vote for him near the end."

You said yourself, you know he will be lynched. There's no other way about it, it's going to happen. You're just not voting for him because you don't want any heat on you next round.

I believe you are the cop. That's not going to change if Kab flips town or scum.

I am, however, concerned about lynching a town player. When I vote, I want it to be because I believe the person is scum, not because I believe the person has a lot of votes on them.

[-TinVision-]

In the interest of keeping the game active, I'm imposing a two week deadline. Failing a lynch before that time, on Monday March 3rd, at 9 AM EST, the majority lynch candidate will be lynched and we will move to night. If a majority has not been reached at that time, there will be no lynch and we'll go to night. Prods have been issued, as appropriate.

Despite the thick grey blanket of clouds, you know the sun is sinking in the sky. Shadows grow long across the trash-littered wasteland of the city streets. A thrill runs through your blood as you think of the coming night with fear... or anticipation.

[somestrangeflea]

@MadCrawdad: The case on kab isn't great, in my opinion. I don't think he's scum.

Orly?

This is where I would vote kab, except that it would put him at L-1

What a difference a day makes!
Twenty-four little hours!

[Spacecase]

Im going to have to agree, lynching Kab would solve nothing and hurt us in the long run. But thats my personal opinion.

[The Fonz]

Who or what is better?

[Justin Playfair]

Shteven,

Just a listing of your posts since the Kabenon007 balloon went up. Now I don’t think the case against Kabenon is all that good, although according to LaptopGun and to a lesser degree you, I am probably the mastermind behind his would-be lynching. I do, however, think it is the best case we have at this point for a day two lynch.

Seems Kabenon007 now has 3 votes + 1 fos. So far, I'm just not really seeing the case, honestly. It's mostly just tone, I don't have anything solid, I am mostly just posting this for notes so I don't forget.

IGMEOY: Justin.

There is definitely something odd about his claims on vollkan and then vollkan voting for him, but I don't consider that vote worthy alone.

Now I understand that in the next post you provide an answer about having your eye on me, but it’s the line below that which has my interest. Who is it on whom you don’t consider the actions you describe worthy of a vote? Because you could be talking about Kabenon, who made claims against Vollkan, or Vollkan, who subsequently voted Kabenon. It could even, given your subsequent response to Vollkan, be a vote on me. But following what you actually say in this sentence it would seem you are either suspicious of Vollkan for placing his vote on Kabenon or Kabenon for making claims. And yet you never follow up on either of these. Could you explain your thoughts on this more clearly?

That's an error on my part: I had been rewording that sentence a few times. I meant I didn't like Justin's tone in stating it. Looking back that wasn't very clear. I didn't want to lean too heavily on Justin for it, but I ended up basically removing the entire thing.

Fair enough, you didn’t like my tone. You then question MelodyMan about why he voted for Kabenon007:

Mind telling us why, MelodyMan?

And use his response, which references my post, to post this. Now this was after LaptopGun chimed in with his own boogeyman post about me.

This is exactly why Justin is so dangerous. He always makes good logical arguments. However, he's not always town. And if he is town, he's not always right. Logical does not mean that it correctly finds scum. Now, I'm by no means positive that he's scum here - I really just don't know. But his case gave me more pause than inspiration. It is 100% true; but it feels like he's eager to lynch. More than I think a town Justin would be.

Again, mostly just a feeling, which is why I wasn't sure if I should state it all upfront. We haven't heard anything more from him since.

Just a few things:

Since three out of four of my pushed cases in the first try at this C-9 were wrong I would certainly agree that I am not always right. But this would serve more as an argument that I’m dangerous to town when I’m town, and then only if I got enough others to follow me to lynch someone, which I certainly didn’t there. In my only other completed game I made an extensive day one case against scum which no one followed and I got killed night one for my trouble. So maybe I would be dangerous as scum, but if I would be as dangerous as scum as I am as town I think we can all sleep easy.

My vote was the second on Kabenon007, so the eager to lynch line doesn’t really play, nor does it make sense as part of a meta as I generally tend to cast a vote early based on my strongest suspicions. So could you explain how in this case it feels like I’m “eager to lynch”?

Can you explain how my case being “100% true”can be made to comfortably coexist with your previous statement “I'm just not really seeing the case, honestly.”? This could just be a byproduct of what you said in your answer to Vollkan, that you mangled the earlier post, but on its face it certainly seems contradictory.

Then:

For the record, I'm a bit uncomfortable with the speed of this game. A six page day 1 was inevitable after the claim, but there's no need to repeat it. We're past half of the votes for a Kabenon007 lynch on page 12.

and:

/seconded.

Fair enough on both counts. The second was agreeing with Fonz about the Kabenon007 wagon not seeming very good but there not being anything better.

And you show you’re not a fan of any existing wagon:

Well, was kind of hoping a bit more would be here now, but in any case. I'm not a fan of the melodyman wagon. I've seen a lot of lynches based on single mistakes turn up town. Jumping on a wagon with poor/no reasons is something experienced scum really don't do much. You just end up lynching the unfortunate.

But then these two posts, which I really don’t like:

Not really too thrilled that Jesse is voting just to end the day. It is tempting to do, but I won't. Kab, please do give us some thoughts in the event you are lynched, which seems likely at this point.

I am, however, concerned about lynching a town player. When I vote, I want it to be because I believe the person is scum, not because I believe the person has a lot of votes on them.

Shteven, your posts above show that you’ve done no real scum hunting since suspicion first started turning against Kabenon007. You’ve given no reasons, outside of my dangerous self using a tone you didn’t like for not wanting to see Kabenon lynched. You’ve asked a total of one question to people on the Kabenon007 wagon. And if you are “concerned about lynching a town player” should you be willing, having done nothing to look for other suspects or poke holes in the case against Kabenon, to accept “the event you are lynched, which seems likely at this point.”?

Because the behavior above looks a lot more like someone who doesn’t want to be associated with a lynch than it does someone who doesn’t trust it and would like to see it stopped. To that end, Shteven, before deadline could you give us some idea of your suspicions, if you have any? And, if you have any, your specific problems with the case on Kabenon007?

Thank you for any responses.

[Rigel]

Okay, this Kabenon thing got completely out of control. I think it's pretty obvious that at least one scum is on the Kabenon wagon by this point; statistics and common sense tell us that. I'm guessing there's probably one who's not on the wagon as well.

I'm not sure what to think about this. On the one hand, I do feel that Kabenon is scummy, if not flat out scum. His play today has been simply bad, what with his comments to Shteven on what townies should and should not think, his offhand JDodge comment, etc. However, the speed at which his lynch is getting pushed is slightly worrying me. However, I'm willing to believe it's just lynch-happy town for the time being, since I don't have any specific evidence otherwise.

One quick thing I noticed. I don't feel like Justin Playfair is 'masterminding' Kabenon's lynch at all. If anything, it's people like vollkan and oman, who are taking a much more active stance against him. So he's got well-thought-out posts. That doesn't make him an evil Kabenon-slaying mastermind.

There have been two people who have been pushing this idea of Justin-as-mastermind: LaptopGun and Shteven. I'm suspecting that one of you, at least, is scum, especially if Kabenon is revealed to be town. If Kabenon is town, you have a scapegoat to blame on Day 3. Also, neither of you are voting for Kabenon at all, which could give you a bit of an "I told you so" edge if Kabenon turns up scum.

Justin himself has just put the spotlight on Shteven in regards to this discrepancy, but I thought that I would call it to light for LaptopGun as well. I don't understand why either of you feel that Justin is running this Kabenon lynch, nor do I understand why LaptopGun has not yet voted for Kabenon, despite suspicions that you have stated numerous times throughout the game. So, LG, if you could address this, I'd appreciate it; hopefully before Kabenon gets lynched.

I'm not going to hammer Kabenon, because I want to get this last issue addressed, but I know that it's only a matter of time, even if he happens to be town.

[Shteven]

@Rigel: to answer your question, see the part below about how I feel that Justin's placing the second vote was designed to strengthen the wagon enough that it would reach a lynch. Answers to Justin follow.

There is definitely something odd about his claims on vollkan and then vollkan voting for him, but I don't consider that vote worthy alone.

This was meant to mean that Kab's claims of understanding vollkan were strange, and that the reciprocation of vollkan voting for kab was also strange. It seems like more than a coincidence, and I can't help feeling like I should be able to see some connection, but I couldn't and can't tell what it means. It's likely just white noise, on further thought.

My vote was the second on Kabenon007, so the eager to lynch line doesn’t really play, nor does it make sense as part of a meta as I generally tend to cast a vote early based on my strongest suspicions. So could you explain how in this case it feels like I’m “eager to lynch”?

The second vote is the one that transforms it from one person's opinion to a (very small) wagon. It really picks up steam more around the 3rd/4th votes, but the second vote can be a good time for a scum player to nudge a case on a townie forward, while being early enough to avoid claims of wagoning the next day. Adding significant reasoning to it can also add staying power to the wagon - however, in your case, that's just normal meta. I'd be more concerned if you hadn't. So it seemed to me like your ultimate goal was to see the wagon through to the end. In other words, you seemed certain you weren't making a mistake.

Can you explain how my case being “100% true”can be made to comfortably coexist with your previous statement “I'm just not really seeing the case, honestly.”? This could just be a byproduct of what you said in your answer to Vollkan, that you mangled the earlier post, but on its face it certainly seems contradictory.

The tone part will be harder to explain, and I'd admit that it's flimsy. The 100% true part is simpler. You don't have to distort facts in order to make a bad case. If you're town you can honestly believe a case and still be wrong. If you're scum you can present true statements which simply don't prove the case (easy enough, as no 100% proof is ever really possible). Summarize some of the questionable things he's done, and then jump to the conclusion that he was scum based on it. Town players always make mistakes. Cases aren't built on perfect information, so at some point every case has to make a leap of faith. Going from "he said A, B, and C" to "he is scum" isn't always true. You got A, B, and C right, but I just didn't see the final "he is scum" as being very convincing.

Shteven, your posts above show that you’ve done no real scum hunting since suspicion first started turning against Kabenon007. You’ve given no reasons, outside of my dangerous self using a tone you didn’t like for not wanting to see Kabenon lynched. You’ve asked a total of one question to people on the Kabenon007 wagon. And if you are “concerned about lynching a town player” should you be willing, having done nothing to look for other suspects or poke holes in the case against Kabenon, to accept “the event you are lynched, which seems likely at this point.”?

Because the behavior above looks a lot more like someone who doesn’t want to be associated with a lynch than it does someone who doesn’t trust it and would like to see it stopped. To that end, Shteven, before deadline could you give us some idea of your suspicions, if you have any? And, if you have any, your specific problems with the case on Kabenon007?

Thank you for any responses.

This is entirely fair. I have been lazy. It could be an overreaction to my two other current games where I actively mislynched a town role on both day 1's. This game is somewhat on day 1, with the speedy day 1. In any case, you're right to call me on it, and I was wondering when someone would. Here's some suspects I have, although I'm not certain on them.

1) Justin. Obvious from the above and nothing solid, but as noted, I don't like the way you entered the kab wagon. It's hard for me to quantify this, because your posts are very well constructed. While some people hate the length, I'm somewhat on your side on that issue. It takes a lot of mental processing to get at your intentions behind them, which is what makes it effective. I feel I should mention you're also valuable as town, and so distrusting you is a risk - but I'm definitely afraid of you being scum.

2) I haven't liked Vollkan's style of postings. He seems to be moderating the discussion rather than participating it. I don't know if this is a consistent play style, but most of his posts are just explaining things that have gone on between other players, sometimes including himself, but not always. He hasn't really hunted scum much. (That's some grade A hypocrisy right there!) This may seem contradictory, but I actually feel a bit of an SK vibe from him. The contradiction being that the SK has nothing to lose and much to gain from hunting mafia. Hey, I never said I was certain.

3) And in what's the opposite of what you asked, I'm thinking my vote on farside is fairly pointless now. It never was much to go on in the first place. This actually was largely an attempt to give us more choices than Kabenon vs Kabenon - but that didn't take off. I hope she wasn't really scum looking for cop claims - but if I was a townie reading my posts, I'd probably have jumped on myself for being opportunistic. Being opportunistic is a pretty hard tell to get right frequently. I've been wrong a lot - and since this is basically the case I have on Justin, it only got an IGEMOY instead of a FOS.

Unvote

If I find more I'll be certain to post them, but if I had a lot more, I wouldn't have been in this position to start with.

[Shteven]

I can add another to the list. Having seen SSF's post above, he's entirely right. Phate's been a bit odd.

@those voting kab: If turns up scum, who are his scumbuddies? If turns up not scum, who?

Asking people to nail the entire scum team on day 1 isn't going to work. No one will be right. Wait to prove that kab is scum, then look for the connections. Pretend you are 80% sure kab is scum and 80% sure that player X is linked to kab. You could then say player X is 64% scum. You're making progressively weaker and weaker claims. Focus on something you have a good chance of being right about.

Vote: MelodyMan23

This'll work.

I've already mentioned I don't like the melodyMan23 wagon, and this is a pretty poor way to jump on it, so you get bonus scum points for it.

And then finally the point SSF already mentioned: the inconsistency of his view on kab's wagon.

I could be wrong, but I like lynching Phate better than I like lynching kab, and so I'll give it a shot on starting a trend:

Vote: Phate

[vollkan]

2) I haven't liked Vollkan's style of postings. He seems to be moderating the discussion rather than participating it. I don't know if this is a consistent play style, but most of his posts are just explaining things that have gone on between other players, sometimes including himself, but not always. He hasn't really hunted scum much. (That's some grade A hypocrisy right there!) This may seem contradictory, but I actually feel a bit of an SK vibe from him. The contradiction being that the SK has nothing to lose and much to gain from hunting mafia. Hey, I never said I was certain.

I admit that my posting has suffered somewhat this game due to the lack of stuff to analyse. The thing is that I usually play to the formula of "review" (usually with a PBPA) then "argue" (about my findings). This gets messed up when, as has happened here, D1 was so scant of anything meaningful. My ability to generate the snow-balling content I usually rely on has been castrated somewhat.

Kab has been the best firm lead I have been able to find thus far. I do think he is the scummiest thus far, and that he is a decent lynch. The global absence of readable behaviour, however, makes this somewhat concerning.

[LaptopGun]

I will attempt to address the latest questions.

This what I get for opening my mouth in order to try to allay my fears that Kab was a townie. I can't say I've helped my own case, but I'm sticking to my guns. I don't like the wagon, it's inevitible that someone will hammer him, and I have doubts about his guilt. Yes a lot of them boil back down to just how the votes stacked up. But I think it's reasonable.

My belief Justin has been running the wagon is two fold, neither of which is very strong on its own. First I believed Justin had exibited an inconsitency. He answered trying to say it was both he didn't want to beat a dead horse and he was letting other people explore his earlier point. I characterized it as letting others talk for him. Second, Justin's tone seemed to have changed after he and Jess Gun got into a real spat. Remember the great line "Is there something you'd like to tell us?" in response to Jess Guns's hilarious reveal as the cop. I agreed with the case Justin put together, but that could have just as easily been bussing his scum buddy. Re-reading his posts, I noticed he mentioned the possibility of bussing a couple times in there. Perhaps a Freudian slip (what number would that be in this one and this will be another player accused of making one)? And then I've talked about it alot. None of my reasons are particuarly good. Far fetched, I know. Notice I'm not voting for the "bogey man" (as Justin elloquently put it), as I'm unsettled by his play. , but It's what is in my mind.

On the other hand Justin has down decidedly pro-town things. Who knows (well besides Justin and TinVision).

[LaptopGun]

ABWOP and in the interest of comedy

Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't out to get me.

[Spacecase]

Kab has been the best firm lead I have been able to find thus far. I do think he is the scummiest thus far, and that he is a decent lynch.

Is this inferring that we should lynch him and get it over with?

[vollkan]

Kab has been the best firm lead I have been able to find thus far. I do think he is the scummiest thus far, and that he is a decent lynch.

Is this inferring that we should lynch him and get it over with?

No.

I meant exactly what I said: Kab is the scummiest I have been able to find thus far and he is a decent lynch. By that, I mean that he is the scummiest relative to everyone else here, and that the case against him is decently lynch-worthy in a non-relative sense.

[kabenon007]

Yeah, and as much as I would like to stay alive, I would rather have myself lynched than a no lynch.

[Jesse Gunn]

Yeah, and as much as I would like to stay alive, I would rather have myself lynched than a no lynch.

How does that even make sense? If you're town, lynching you would get rid of a player that could help us. A No Lynch will keep you around and help the town in another round.

Please explain. Or is this just an attempt to sway opinion?

[Phate]

@MadCrawdad: The case on kab isn't great, in my opinion. I don't think he's scum.

Orly?

This is where I would vote kab, except that it would put him at L-1

What a difference a day makes!
Twenty-four little hours!

It's odd that you think willingness to lynch and certainty of alignment go hand-in-hand.

@Shteven: Of course we're not going to nail everyone on D1. But it's helpful to get people to think beyond today, don't you agree?

[kabenon007]

A lynch, be it a townie or scum, provides information. A no-lynch at this point in the game just gives the scum another free kill. This day needs to end with a lynch. I would prefer it not be me, I would prefer myself over no lynch.

[Spacecase]

A lynch, be it a townie or scum, provides information. A no-lynch at this point in the game just gives the scum another free kill. This day needs to end with a lynch. I would prefer it not be me, I would prefer myself over no lynch.

Kab, watch you said is scummy to me becasue you are trying to be "honorable", I guess you could say and just offering yourself up which I'm thinking is a last ditch effort to sway the vote away from you.

vote Kabenon007

[Shteven]

@Shteven: Of course we're not going to nail everyone on D1. But it's helpful to get people to think beyond today, don't you agree?

Based on the very limited information of day 1, you are much more likely to be wrong and add only confusion. You can only lynch one person a day - so it's best to focus on making that as accurate as possible. If you see strong evidence against another player besides the one you're voting on, feel free to mention it, but with primary choices being wrong half the time, your third best choice isn't going to be nearly as good. You'll be able to make it a lot more accurate once you know the lynch/night results on day 2, and clutter the thread a lot less.

[kabenon007]

And that's the newbie in you talking, Space. Everyone knows a lynch is better than a no lynch in most situations. I'm just stating the truth. If you don't like it, no argument I come up with will sway you.

[The Fonz]

Announce intention to vote Kab

Basically, I don't think town players should ever admit they'd prefer their own lynch to none. For starters, cops shouldn't, so it's giving the scum role info if you do happen to survive.

Please claim now.

[vollkan]

Please claim now.

/second.

[MadCrawdad]

Spacecase's vote for Kabenon was the hammer, wasn't it?

[kabenon007]

And why shouldn't they admit that, Fonz? Isn't it true? A lynch is better than none in almost all circumstances.

Vanilla Townie. Sorry to disappoint you all. Nothing special here.