Mini 532: Yaw's Split Open Mafia: (Game over)

[SensFan]

I'm really unsure as to who the SK is, but I am leaning towards Skruffs.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:

Not voting (3): mikeburnfire, Skruffs, SensFan

With 3 alive it is 2 to lynch.

[Skruffs]

I hate this. This is exactly like what happened in the open C9 game I was in, it was me, Ripley,a nd Zindaras. Zindaras was acting exactly like MBF, and Ripley didn't post at all. I wound up voting Ripley just to end the game, and zindaras eventually hammered, about a week later.

Neither of you seem to have ANY inclination to broach discussion. You have both said you think it's likely me, but neither of you are saying why, or discussing the ins and outs of it. If you are both going to be that apathetic, then there is really no point in me trying to figure out who the SK is; it's literally 2-1 at this point, with the sk and a townie both trying to act less interested in the game.

[mikeburnfire]

Sorry, but I don't have time for this game right now. I want to do a thorough analysis, but I'm busy all day tomorrow and most of Friday. I'll try to get my post in early on Saturday- promise.

[bird1111]

I warned you all.

Retractable Deadline: March 7th@6:30 PM EST

[Skruffs]

I am moving the next day, so that works for me.

Mbf, I am more willing to believe you are town than I am sensfan. He seemed upset that I vocally suspected him, which suggests to me that he was expecting an easy lynch on you today.

You have to give me something though, I don't care what it is, so that I can get a reading on you.

Sensfan, just because I am suspicious of you, isn't an excuse to go omgus. Please lay out your suspicions of me in a way that suggests you aren't just capitalizing on mbf's suspicions on me.

[mikeburnfire]

I wanted to go back and get a good read from previous days, but there isn't much there to go on. Sensfan has been inactive for a good portion of the game. For almost an entire day he talked about his role and how he could use it to prove that he wasn't scum. Skruffs has been much more active, and though I initially thought he was suspicious for coming up with all the complicated theories regarding the setup, he was actively participating in the game too.

Yesterday we theorized who the SK was when day broke. Skruffs stated Holy first, then DP. I stated Holy too. Sensfan stated Holy as well, then me. DP theorized Holy, then Skruffs. I later grew suspicious of DP and Skruffs, but Sensfan was fairly low on my radar.

Day ended like this:
DP: Sensfan >

Holy

> Skruffs > MBF
MBF:

Holy

> Skruffs > DP > Sensfan
Skruffs:

Holy

> MBF > DP > Sensfan
Sensfan:

Holy

> MBF > DP > Skruffs

Everybody thought Holy was the SK, except for DP. DP had Sensfan prioritized higher. He was also the only person who placed me low, when everybody else was suspicious of me. A SK Sensfan killing DP just makes complete sense. But it also would have made sense for a SK Skruffs to kill DP, as both of Sensfan and Skruffs placed me high on their lists and it would have been easy to get me lynched.

But then why would Skruffs turn around and suspect Sensfan unprovoked? Only 9 minutes after the death scene Skruffs had an argument against Sensfan. As I said before, a SK Sensfan killing DP just makes complete sense, so maybe he thought he could frame him in this manner. For this ploy to work though, I would have to shift my position on Sensfan, which would have been a risky move, as he was last on my list.

I don't know what to do now. Skruffs has been calulatory all game, so if he were scum it would make sense for him to have this strategy planned out. But Sensfan's killing DP and having Skruffs and myself duke it out just seems like a no-brainer.

[Skruffs]

calulatory?

Are you sure DP had you less suspicious than me?

[mikeburnfire]

DP said the following rhyme:

Holy was the top of my list until the above^
now I am wondering who really does wear the SK glove.

reffering to you. Er, but I also forgot this line:

In the reread, which I found a little tough,
I have come to the conclusion that me doubts our SK is scruffs.

so I suppose he did have you last. My mistake.

[SensFan]

I'll post more later, but for now I just wonder why I am under such scrutiny when I was last on both of your lists yesterday.

[Skruffs]

Don't be silly, Sensfan.

Opinions change. You seem to resent that the two people who thought you were not the SK yesterday are now suspicious of you - when the person who DID think you were the SK, DP, died.
And you don't see the connection?

[SensFan]

You've been here at MS for 2 and a half years, and yet you seem to assume that the SK could never have been intelligent enough to think up a WIFOM argument such as that one. That bothers me.

[mikeburnfire]

You've been here at MS for 2 and a half years, and yet you seem to assume that the SK could never have been intelligent enough to think up a WIFOM argument such as that one. That bothers me.

Why do you assume Skruffs isn't the SK?

[SensFan]

From my point of view, the SK could be either of you. My sentence doesn't exclude either of you. Regardless of who it is, there's no doubt that the SK planned to get me lynched through WIFOM.

[mikeburnfire]

You're talking to Skruffs as if he is town though, chastising him for not anticipating the SK's moves. This leads me to believe that either you are either not as indecisive as you lead, or that you are scum letting your inside knowledge slip.

Also, you keep saying that the SK planned to get you lynched through WIFOM, but you're using WIFOM as your defense.

[SensFan]

I was talking to him through a neutral perspective, since I'm honestly not sure which of you is the SK. If anything, I was talking to him through a point of view that perhaps he is the SK, since he is playing WIFOM so strongly.

I'm not using WIFOM as my defense, more just that I have no way to defend against the arguments being presented. There is nothing I can say to "defend" against the fact that someone very suspicious of me was killed, or that I'm alive in and endgame situation with two people who were in disagreement yesterday.

[Skruffs]

I am obviously well aware of what the sk may be possible of, THAT is what I was saying in the beginning of the day!

You are disgruntled that you aren't automatically cleared, which makes it look like the theory about you vs drunken piper is right,

and
mikeburnfire is acting like someone who just wants someone else to get lynched; he's basically saying 'goading' type things without REALLY putting himself at risk by theorizing, at least not theorizing anything fresh.

[mikeburnfire]

What are you talking about Skruffs? I thought for a moment I had caught Sensfan making a slip and called him on it.

[bird1111]

Deadline is now unretractable. It can still be extended if you earn one.

[Skruffs]

I'm willing to believe that Sensfan is the SK.

[SensFan]

Way to completely avoid the question MBF just asked you.

We have a deadline in a little over a week, and you think just dropping and attacking someone in passing in LyLo is going to fly?

[Skruffs]

First of all, it is extremely ironic that you are criticizing me for not participating, when the most you have contributed thus far is anger that you are considered a suspect, which really seems to indicate that you would have been the one to kill DP.

aside from that...
I've explained myself repeatedly, but I can explain myselfagain.
Before , though, I want to point out that this reminds mfe of a game where me and ripley were fighting each other while zindaras just kinda killed in the background. Ripley and patrick , in my eyes, were too-easily clearing each other (misunderstanding on my part) so i thought one of them was scum. That night zindaras, who had been quasi defending me the day before, killed patrick - which was much smarter than killing me.

Why? BEcause if he had killed me, the possible 'english buddy clearing' system would have led to him being lynched, and because patrick died he thought i would focus my attack on ripley, who wouuld in turn attack me, leaving him safe.

Ripley stoped posting and the mod didn't replace him, so i eventually voted ripley, while pointing out that zindaras was the only one who really benefited from patrick's death.


BASically this is the exact same situation here, except somewhat different.

Well not completely but as i and mikeburnfire have both stated, the whole crux of the matter is, why did someone kill DP and not me, sensfan, or MBF.

IF MBF or Sensfan had killed the other, since both started off as power roles
AS WELL AS ALL THREE MAFIA, it would likely have pointed to the other.

I was pretty adamantly anti-sensfan as sk yesterday, my suspicions were mostly on Holy, with reservations about mbf and DP.


Considering that I was so anti lynching sensfan yesterday, why would MB Fas scum choose to kill DP instead? If I was anti-lynching sensfan yesterday, what would make that change today?

That's the one GOOD point I have about MBF. That and, as RBer SK it's unlikely he would have tried to kill and block the mason n1, it's more likely he'd hit someone else, like the cop (or whoever it is the doc really protected), to maximize the effects he has on the game. When he started today, most of his posts, and this could be just paranoia, but most of his parts seem to be incendiary in nature; tryign to get me and sensfan to suspect each other without really contributing himself. Both mbf and sensfan are acting that way, and at that poitn it wasn't helpful.


Sensfan's disgruntlement that he's even beign considered the sk today acutally makes me more suspicious of himl it's as if he's saying "You thought i was town yesterday, and i kille the other person who thought i was scum, you guys SHOULD have lynched each other by now. I am displeased at your change of heart."

That's what I am reading Sensfan as now, and his attitude and behavior is doing nothing to assuage that inclination I am feeling.


NONE of us wanwt to be lynched today, it means the end of the game for whichever team we are on. I think that sensfan is the SK though. Role Opener as an SK role is not as powerful as SK/Roleblocker, which is a point against MBF.

MBF - do you remember why you blocked the mason who died n1?

[mikeburnfire]

No, I've completely forgotten why I targetted Zhao N1. It was probably because I thought I saw a scum-scum link between him and kabenon.

I don't understand what you mean with regards to our power roles. What does that have to do with anything?

I can't help shake the feeling that you're just leading me here, Skruffs. The way you keep trying to bring up your other game and your focus on arguments against Sensfan really makes me uneasy.

[Skruffs]

Considering both you and Sensfan are throwing out that you think I'm the last scum, it's better for me to lead than to follow.

The power role thing is a mod-meta, and just speculation. We know that all three mafia were originally power roles.
We know the SK, working alone, had the benefit of being able to do both his night action and a nightkill on another player.

My analysis of that is that hte mod therefore gave the SK a power role in the beginning of the game. YOUR power role (roleblocking) would be incredibly more beneficial for the SK than Role Opening; because as the SK sensfan would draw ire from town for NOT reopening the town-helping roles and would also be HURT by doing such by the mafia who would want to keep them closed.
However, knowing the role switcher was mafia, makign the role opener also scum would put both scum parties into a unique situation where both would have to act protown with what they do with their night actions without revealing to the opposing scum (who could easily be hurt by their actions) who they are.

It's just speculation, but any speculation that leads to a more informed decision is better than just agreeing with each other. And your last post "You are making me more suspicous of you with your talking" is exactly what I was talking about in regards to how you started the day, MBF.
That is all just mod-setup-speculation, though.

[mikeburnfire]

Well, you'll have to excuse me because I feel that the way you started the day was terribly suspicious. You had a persuasive argument to lynch Sensfan only nine minutes after day began. It makes me feel like you had this all thought out before day started. As if you planned to take advantage of my previous rashness.