Mini 539: Game over

[kuribo]

Also, I've got a proposal. It seems like half of us are ready to swear by Claus' list, and the other half think it's useless. I'd like to see people start making cases based on what he said, rather than what group their target was in.

You continue to gloss over my reasoning by saying that I'm "swearing by" the list. I don't think it should be disregarded, but it's definitely a useful tool when combined with other things that have been said and done.

You make it seem as if I looked at the list and worked backwards from there. That wasn't the case.

[Justin Playfair]

Well, we’re certainly speculating about a lot of power roles here, aren’t we? Telling the cop what to do, wondering if a nurse tried to protect Ythill or a role blocker kept him from making a kill. Seems like we’re almost assuming a serial killer in some quarters.

Sorry, but this doesn’t help us find scum, and I’m coming closer and closer to Kuribo’s position that there is something more than a little suspicious about the endless speculation.

First up. Ythill killed Claus. Why do I say this with near absolute certainty? Well, as Incognito already pointed out, here’s why:

Woot! Go town!

That’s not the death post of someone who had his one and only kill role blocked. Ythill probably shouldn’t have thrown in the Woot!, but he did and I’m not going to pretend it wasn’t there. And if someone can come up with some other reason for his ebullience, give it to me and maybe then I’ll reconsider.

Now about it being “odd” that Ythill ended up targeting Claus. It’s never seemed odd to me, but I didn’t post about it before because it seems pretty evident from his last post. In that last post Ythill points out that there are clear connections between me and Incognito. And in fact I wasn’t very suspicious of Incognito the first day. I thought he was a cop, which doesn’t say much for my powers of deduction. Ythill also thought that either Claus or I had to be scum because of his case against me and my responses to him. So he killed Claus, I would guess, because he thought that if he did so and Claus was town he’d given the town their next two lynches. It would have been the best “wrong” choice he could make. And of course if he killed a bad guy he got rid of scum. If he was wrong and killed Incognito or Shteven it would have given town much less to work with. Important to remember though, that just because Ythill, based on his posts, may have thought all this it doesn’t mean he was right about the implications.


Hjallti,

I’ll be interested in what you have to give us when you come back on your feelings about players and their actions as opposed to speculation about what roles might be present.

[Justin Playfair]

Shteven,

Also, I've got a proposal. It seems like half of us are ready to swear by Claus' list, and the other half think it's useless. I'd like to see people start making cases based on what he said, rather than what group their target was in.

The first part of this seems an odd overstatement. Maybe you’re just annoyed with the discussion of Claus’ list, but I haven’t seen anyone willing to swear by it. And I don’t think anyone has said it’s entirely useless either. As for your proposal I would be happy to take a turn looking at Claus’ naughty and nice cases.

Naughty List: Apyadg, MafiaSSK, Justin Playfair, Incognito:

Claus hit at me hard for a variety of reasons. I discussed possible fake claims and he said he’d seen scum do that in other games. I was timid and I was seeking to paralyze the town. Finally he tried to present the way I was defending myself as scummy.

Claus goes after Incognito pretty hard too. I noticed that Claus downplayed the way ChronX had attacked Incognito. At the time it seemed, like a lot of Claus’case against me, the product of not really reading the thread. Some of ChronX’s attacks were backhanded enough that skimming might not have made it clear. ChronX threw in a meta-attack at Incognito, in the same way he did on me.

Claus on MafiaSSK: In retrospect something along the lines of “this guy could be easy to lynch sometime”.

Claus’ treatment of Apyadg is extremely gentle, given his handling of me and Incognito. Even after Apyadg made his extremely terrible post about scum hunting, this is what Claus posted:

Welcome back to the game! I agree with the others that asking which subjects you should reply to, and which are already "closed" don't look good for you.

If you were asking a honest question, I feel that the best way you could return to the game is, instead of concentrating in specific episodes, to write what you think about the different players, and point out who you feel is scummy. That will give us a good "snapshot" of your position, and probably will allow you to put your thoughts about the game in order as well.

Claus called Kuribo and Ho1den “unlisted”. But given what he said about them, and especially given his subsequent behavior toward Kuribo this feels to me more like two more naughtys. Damns Kuribo with faint praise about his initial list and then goes strangely overboard with his WTF reasons. Has little to say about Ho1den that would define a serious intention on his part but still overplays a little the possible suspiciousness of what most would call asking questions or placing a vote on someone for pressure.

Claus has almost nothing to say about Charter, but still puts him on his “nice” list.

Claus puts Shteven on his nice list for “playing solid” and being “explicit in his position regarding other players”. There are no subsequent words from Claus on the topic of Shteven.

Claus says that Xtoxm is direct, consistent, and true to his opinions. He states that he likes Xtoxm’s play.

My take on Claus’ words against those other than me.

The case against Incognito and the dirt on Kuribo look like they had serious intent to me. And he goes after Kuribo for circling in on Xtoxm.

Hard to tell about Ho1den.

Charter and Shteven are more interesting, because given the kind of attacks Claus was making on others there was certainly enough in their posts to fling some dirt their way.

Claus’ gentle post to Apyadg, with its passive “I agree with others” and subsequent coaching seems more odd. Kuribo wasn’t even on his naughty list and he went after him a lot harder than this, and for far less reason.

Xtoxm. Well, I had already pointed out the strange misstatements about Xtoxm in Claus’ description of “nice” Xtoxm. I won’t do them all again here because of the already formidable length of this post. Put me in isolation and you’ll be able to see them. On the whole, now that Claus is dead, his statements swearing up Xtoxm seem almost too clumsy and obvious to trust as proof that Xtoxm was scum. But this seems the strangest “nice” entry, based on the justifications given for it.

Before I go farther, though, I would like to see what some other folks think about the specifics of what Claus wrote. And I want to ask you a question, Shteven. My posts to Claus and Xtoxm about what I saw as the inaccurate contradictions in Claus’ opinions about me and Xtoxm were just sitting up there in thread. There’s been a lot of water under the bridge since then, so it seems quite possible that you weren’t thinking about that discussion when you made this request, but since you’re under a little bit of pressure right now it might be possible that this was your way of wanting to move it elsewhere. So could you give us your version of what you’ve requested from the rest of us? And could you explain more fully why you decided to make this specific request (not a request for us to move onto other topics, but a request to make cases based on what Claus posted) at this time?

[Xtoxm]

I think i've already said what I think of Claus's list, do you want anyhting further from me on the subject?

On a side note, I find it quite hard to respond to your monster posts...

[kuribo]

Now about it being “odd” that Ythill ended up targeting Claus. It’s never seemed odd to me, but I didn’t post about it before because it seems pretty evident from his last post.

Not only that, but I actually had assumed that to an extent, he intentionally hid his intended target from us. Even after asking several times who he should attack, he targetted someone whose name hadn't been brought up much. I find it hard to believe that he put no thought into it whatsoever, and only assume that he wanted the mafia to believe that he was going after Incog or someone else.

I agree with you about the power-role speculation, as I've stated myself several (dozen?) times. It's pointless, it does not help us, and it distracts us from the business at hand--- finding and lynching scum. I'm starting to think that the speculation may be intentionally fed on the part of the scum, and that perhaps town players are unwittingly keeping it going.

[Shteven]

Also, I've got a proposal. It seems like half of us are ready to swear by Claus' list, and the other half think it's useless. I'd like to see people start making cases based on what he said, rather than what group their target was in.

You continue to gloss over my reasoning by saying that I'm "swearing by" the list. I don't think it should be disregarded, but it's definitely a useful tool when combined with other things that have been said and done.

You make it seem as if I looked at the list and worked backwards from there. That wasn't the case.

In post 576 I asked about that.

Other than the nice list, the "there's 3 scum" issue, is there anything else you'd like me to discuss?

What else do you want me to answer? Sorry, haven't felt like digging lately

Also, and you aren't the only one to mention it, I suppose swearing by might have been a bit strong, no need to take that so literally. I think I got a bit too emotionally involved in my defense lately, I'll try to be a bit more level.

[Shteven]

Before I go farther, though, I would like to see what some other folks think about the specifics of what Claus wrote. And I want to ask you a question, Shteven. My posts to Claus and Xtoxm about what I saw as the inaccurate contradictions in Claus’ opinions about me and Xtoxm were just sitting up there in thread. There’s been a lot of water under the bridge since then, so it seems quite possible that you weren’t thinking about that discussion when you made this request, but since you’re under a little bit of pressure right now it might be possible that this was your way of wanting to move it elsewhere. So could you give us your version of what you’ve requested from the rest of us? And could you explain more fully why you decided to make this specific request (not a request for us to move onto other topics, but a request to make cases based on what Claus posted) at this time?

I was hoping to elevate the level of discussion. Also, I personally don't feel there's much meat on just his list alone. Most players got two lines. That's not to say that Claus's text isn't helpful - I just think we need to look at the greater range of it. And I've been guilty on this charge also, I haven't committed to rereading it before now. Here goes.

He starts with a summary of the thread, pretty simplistic and factual. Then the famous list. Most of these are non-controversial reads. He really wasn't looking to stir the pot. I really feel that if you are looking to "hide" a scum partner, the best place to do it is in the unlisted section. I'm going to wait before I come to a conclusion on Hjallti (Ho1den), but for now I'm leaning towards Kuribo on this count. My other suspects are split: Xtoxm in nice, Jester (Apyadg) in naughty.

Next up he goes over some minor things with Ythill, throws some suspicion on Apyadg (perhaps I'm wrong?). Next up are his answers to Justin over the claim that Justin is playing soft. For the record, I don't feel that justin is playing soft - but I think his long posts get skimmed over by most players. A shame, and I may fall victim to the same thing, but he does go after people in detailed conversations. Just because he won't vote until he's talked to someone for a while doesn't mean he's not aggressive.

In his post #386 he's rounding up his replies to various people, and this is his last hefty post before his death. He's glad Incognito finally voted Apyadg (I'm really reconsidering this one now). The rest of the response doesn't seem to helpful to me - We already know Claus is scum and I'm believing Incoginto as town, so the two of them arguing doesn't add much to my read. The arguments with Justin seem very odd to me. He's upset that he's talking about other players while not voting for them. I've mentioned about half of the players in this game during this post, I'm clearly not voting for all of them. I think most of their problem was just a disagreement over how long you're supposed to talk to each other before you should follow it up with a vote. Good thing he's dead - look at all this text without a vote!

In summary, I don't find anything here really pointing to scum. I do, however, come away less suspicious of Incognito (who I already believed) and Apyadg (Jester). My suspects at the moment would then be just Xtoxm and Kuribo. More on them another day.

[kuribo]

My suspects at the moment would then be just Xtoxm and Kuribo. More on them another day.

So is it just coincidence that you thought I was town until I turned my attention to you? Or is voting for you a scumtell in your mind?

[Shteven]

My suspects at the moment would then be just Xtoxm and Kuribo. More on them another day.

So is it just coincidence that you thought I was town until I turned my attention to you? Or is voting for you a scumtell in your mind?

No, but if I'm going to take heat for saying that people were swearing by claus' list, you should take some for such a silly assertion as well.

I liked your initial entry to the game - and disagreed with Ythill who was much more antagonistic towards you. Now he's proven town, so I may take a closer look at that, but for now, let's continue with my reads.

Post 353: "Also, mini-fos: Kuribo." Opportunistic charge against Xtoxm based on association with Ythill. I dislike people going for connections to yet-unproven alignments of others. Ythill was town, so where does that leave Xtoxm now?

Then you made the "it's unlikely two players will be scum partners two games in a row" post. I realize it wasn't meant to be definitive, but it's a load of bull. See my post 490 for your post (quoted) and my response. As a sidenote: you were once again clearing incognito in part due to him being on the naughty list. You really do like that list, yes?

In post 540 (again my response, you're quoted) you missed the fact we lost the doctor in your count of power roles. Not really sure if this is a scumtell or not, but it's an inaccuracy. A little while later on, I left out the masons, so no one's perfect.

You then misrepresented my attempts to get MafiaSSK to join the conversation. I asked him what he thought of day 2 and you took it to mean I was trying to bar him from talking about day 1. In case you haven't noticed, any posting from him would be an improvement.

It is entirely true that when Gorgon said he thought you were town, I agreed. You are "probably town". I'm not voting for you yet. I'm merely saying that I don't trust you quite as much as I did before. Attacking someone isn't a scum tell, but if you are spreading misinformation or being overly opportunistic about it, then it is. I haven't taken the time to build a solid case against anyone yet on day 2, so I'm still collecting information.

Some of your attacks haven't felt that genuine to me. But I think my agreement with Gorgon might have been a bit hasty, having gone back and looked at our history. I just don't have anything solid yet.

[MafiaSSK]

Wait, so why is everyone looking this far into Claus' list. What if he was actually trying to scumhunt about everything even if he already knew about all of the scum? He could just be throwing all of us off!

[Hjallti]

First of all, my fast remarks about possible line-ups had the intention to remind some people that it is way to early to envision only a 3 against 9 setup, I think I have been only in one game with such a setup on this site. Clearly my summing up possibilities had the opposite effect because everyone complains about me doing it, while no one complains when people say the want only to think as if we have a 3:9. So the underneath remark is self referential.

I'm starting to think that the speculation may be intentionally fed on the part of the scum, and that perhaps town players are unwittingly keeping it going.

I always find it strange that dead people are allowed to post (even once), and I don't want to use it in my considerations, more over since english is not my mothertongue, I don't see why

Woot!

would imply that the dead of scum Claus was caused by Ythill. It makes me more convinced that, when I am mod I should delete those dead posts as soon as possible.

However, I do agree that from what we saw about Ythill it was more likely he attacked someone else that who he said he would attack, but that I only conceived while thinking this game over in the weekend, and not on my read friday.

Hjallti, your statement above seems weird to me especially coupled with your closing statement where you mention that you believe my pro-town Mason claim. If there is a mafia role-blocker and the role-blocker knew that Ythill was targeting town (me), why would the role-blocker block Ythill's action? The role-blocker would more likely allow the kill to go through under the assumption that the one-shot night-kill vig is targeting town while thinking he's targeting scum.

You are right, didn't consider that, I was to much thinking about vig is protown so mafia wants to stop him.

I also don't like how you're trying to lead the cop. Why should the cop investigate me to determine if I'm telling the truth about my claim?

??? No that is a misrepresentation: I claerly included that he only should do it if he has no better plans. This is clearly not

directing

the cop.

(if he has no better plans).

I do understand your second comment, and agree it would be wasted if we at twilight still have reason mafia will attack either you or MafiaSSK, and if the game changes so much they would attack someone else then probably the cop might also have something else to do.

Still I find it strange to get FoSsed for suggesting a cop investigation if he has nothing better to do.

I am planning a PBPA of at least Apyadg/Jester maybe other players as well tomorrow.

[Gorgon]

Just a heads up. I'm still alive and all, but I'll be bogged down at a workshop all day. I'll try to post stuff tonight.

[kuribo]

I always find it strange that dead people are allowed to post (even once), and I don't want to use it in my considerations, more over since english is not my mothertongue, I don't see why

Woot!

would imply that the dead of scum Claus was caused by Ythill.

Then who do you propose killed Claus? Because I find it next to impossible that the scum would kill one of their own.

[Jester]

Still in the midst of my read. My God, this is an incredibly dense game! Huge enormous posts, huge enormous egos. I'm at post 275. I hope to be finished by tomorrow or the next day.

I'm still going to have lots of notes and questions about the full game, but a thread that happened in the mid-game, between posts 200 and 275, really interests me and I think it deserves some separate comments, and that is the attacks that were centered on Ythill and Disciple Slayer.

Ythill, charter, and DS are my Top Three at the moment, with Ho1den clawing his way towards them. Now, I realize that all 4 of you aren't scum, but I'd be willing to bet my right eye that two of you are.

Very interesting, in context! Two of those four are now dead, confirmed townie power roles. You traded in Ho1den for SSK in the post immediately following. Still willing to bet that right eye, kuribo? If so, to keep it, both Hjallti and Gorgon have to be scum. Still, I'm willing to rack this up as over-reaching, because I really really liked your 211 otherwise. Brought me a lot of insight to the early game.

Some of you may think this was too quick a play. I disagree and I really hope I’m right about it.

It was far too quick a play, and you were totally wrong about it. Martyrs are anti-town. Just, you know, FYI.

I am perplexed. I have no idea what to do any more. Mass RC, anyone?

I have to admit... one of my first games, I made an incredibly stupid error. I took something someone said that sounded

exactly

like this, and built a whole case around the fact that he must be scum for saying it. I then convinced the town that I was right, and we went on to lynch... our doctor. The person who said it? Aheh. Nanosauromo. Sorry about that, Nano. I've gotten much better at this game since then. I hope.

Sometimes the smartest person in the world follows their instincts right off a cliff.

I swear I hadn't read posts 218 through 257 when I wrote this. It now sure seems prophetic to me. There's lots of arguments in that series of posts (particularly with JP and Incognito involved) about whether Ythill realized that his "strategy #4" completely failed if Incognito was a townie. Ythill claims not to have thought of the possibility. Incognito and JP go to great lengths not to want to believe it. But I believe it completely. Smart people, even really logical smart people, get so wrapped up in their own assumptions that they don't even see them any more. I see it nearly every single day where I work. Ythill just followed his instincts right off a cliff, that's all.

an impassioned plea for Ythill's blood

Wow. And I mean that. Wow. My notes for 232 read, quote, "Either really really smart or really really stupid". And what I mean by this, is this impassioned howling for Ythill's blood on Incognito's part in these two posts, even as the DS band-wagon was gaining steam, was incredibly ballsy.
:arrow: Assume for a moment that Incognito is scum. He knows Ythill is innocent. He probably has no reason to doubt Ythill's claim. There's a little bit of a movement for Ythill's lynch, but there's no momentum behind it. Incognito has got to know that if he drives forward the lynch so vehemently, championining it so loudly, when Ythill is so clearly targeting him, that when Ythill

is

lynched and then turns up innocent, he's going to die quick, fast, and horrible. He can maybe try arguing his death is too obvious, but it probably ain't gonna work. For a scum, it's an incredibly ballsy play, and relies on the town lynching someone else,

anyone

else. No sure thing at that point in the game, that's for sure!
:arrow: Now assume that Incognito is town. When Ythill turns up innocent, what did he say? "Ooops."? Hee! I haven't gotten there in my reading, but I can't wait to read this. I certainly hope someone else pointed out this obvious problem, particularly given the pointing out of logic flaws that made posts 218 through 257 such a slog. For a townie, it's again an incredibly ballsy play because Incognito apparently gives no thought whatsoever to what happens to him if... and I know this is crazy... if Ythill is telling the truth. 'cept for the minor problem that Ythill

was

telling the truth! Only a truly innocent, pure, crusading for scum blood townie could fail to miss this minor problem.

In short, these two posts scream to anyone who can read them, "Hi! My name is Incognito and I'm either the most scummy scum that ever walked the earth, or I'm the towniest townie in the history of Mafiascum! There's no middle ground whatsoever! Really! kthxbai!" Wow.

The thing that really makes this interesting, though, is JP's almost immediate follow-up, his 274, in which, he writes (among other things):

All right. I have a much longer case on Disciple Slayer than the below. But...

Let's assume for a few seconds that JP and Incognito are

both

scum. If that's the case, you two deserve some kind of prize for the most elegant tag-team in the history of Mafiascum. Incognito throws down this extremely ballsy (and incredibly pro-town-appearing) howl for Ythill's blood. Then JP follows up with a carefully crafted attack on DS. An attack, it must be pointed out, that's built on virtually nothing at all! Except for that casual little line: "I have a much longer case on DS than the below." Neat, right? It's the ultimate mafia good-cop-bad-cop. Who does the town believe? The zealot? Or the calm, reasoned politician? If you guys

are

both scum, brav-f***ing-o.

Of course, both attacks were on pro-town power roles! I can't wait to read how and why both of you are not only still alive, but also apparently not even suspects. Bet it's interesting! My current feeling is still that you're both townies, but I will be interested to see why the rest of the town apparently thinks so!

Anyway, still reading. Again, hope to be done tomorrow or the next day.

[kuribo]

Still willing to bet that right eye, kuribo?

If people collected from every body part I've ever bet, I'd be in sad shape. I also bet my left testicle that the Patriots would win the Super Bowl, and my left kidney that the Ravens would make the Playoffs.

[Shteven]

Hey, the right side of you is still intact, right?

Anyways, I really liked this paragraph from Jester:

Now assume that Incognito is town. When Ythill turns up innocent, what did he say? "Ooops."? Hee! I haven't gotten there in my reading, but I can't wait to read this. I certainly hope someone else pointed out this obvious problem, particularly given the pointing out of logic flaws that made posts 218 through 257 such a slog. For a townie, it's again an incredibly ballsy play because Incognito apparently gives no thought whatsoever to what happens to him if... and I know this is crazy... if Ythill is telling the truth. 'cept for the minor problem that Ythill was telling the truth! Only a truly innocent, pure, crusading for scum blood townie could fail to miss this minor problem.

I fall into this pitfall constantly. I wouldn't say I really drove DS by myself in this game day 1, but I was certainly a significant part of it. Another of my current games, I was entirely driving the day 1 mislynch. I've come to realize what I call the stupid townie problem, but I still haven't managed to kick the habit. It's very easy to get caught up in your beliefs and not realize you're going off nothing but a read. I'm trying to be more careful these days. I'm still collecting information for day 2 here. I probably won't find much conclusive without rereading, but having you sum up events is a good refresher. Between these comments and the digging into Claus's attacks on your replaced player, I'm starting to feel you're town pretty strongly. Now if only I could find someone being scummy.

[Hjallti]

Then who do you propose killed Claus? Because I find it next to impossible that the scum would kill one of their own.

Strange question: First of all you keep on speculating the line up which you said you shouldn't,

I'm starting to think that the speculation may be intentionally fed on the part of the scum, and that perhaps town players are unwittingly keeping it going.

and second you fail to grasp my point that we are not sure about a 3:9 setup which you still seem to focus on as the only possibility. This is tunneling and might hurt town!

If Ythill didn't kill Claus we probably have an SK around. That is all I wanted to point out.

PBPA of Apyadg (Jester is his new name) : number of posts from singled out file.

(I paraphrase rather than quote to show how I read it rather than what I read.

italics are my personal comments

)
0. votes MafiaSSK for providing a joke reason to his random vote
1. Asks for the reason of the vote
2. newb question about setup
3. Calls MafiaSSK scummy for his joke (= a lie)
4. unvotes but still FoSses him
5-7. Defended against accusitions

The point against Apyadg at this point is that he started the bandwagon on no good reason, although he seemed to believe it was a good reason, and then unvoted under criticism while still thinking MafiaSSK was scum. This could al be an eager newbie. Thusfar I only see a newbie-tell

8. Apyadg is called out for unvoting (from L-4 to L-5) the scummiest player in his opinion without redirecting his vote somewhere.

He didn't yet grasp the fact that votes can be used as pressure tools as well.

9-11. He is questioned about his lack on scumhunting (on mafiaSSK)
12-13. Comes back from absence with an clear statement about his vote/unvote which really believe as a newb-tell and takes some advise just before disappearing.

I am not experienced enough to distinguish between scum-newb and town-newb, but I don't think we can learn anything more from his play.

[Gorgon]

Between these comments and the digging into Claus's attacks on your replaced player, I'm starting to feel you're town pretty strongly.

I don't really see Claus attacking Apy that hard. Do you?

Anyway, I was looking back at what ChronX was saying, myself.

First off, I noticed a possible connection with Xtomx.

YTHill mildly chides xtoxm for answering a question directed at MafiaSSK. Yet when Incognito does something similar, YT seems to feel the heat and unvotes.

This can be interpreted in a number of ways, but the impression I get is that ChronX seems to be suggesting that Ythill is distancing himself from Xtomx. Quite convenient, if Xtomx is scum and gets killed as one, to be able to 'point' to this later.

I don't especially like that several players are coaching xtoxm to play better. I would prefer to let him flounder on his own and hold him accountable later. It will however, be useful to keep in mind who has been there with the virtual arm around his shoulder.

Oh really? ChronX explicitly states that he will let Xtomx 'flounder on his own' and 'hold him accountable later', and tries to make the people who are defending him suspicious ... even saying that it will be 'useful to keep in mind' who defended him? Useful when? Again, when Xtomx gets exposed as scum, perhaps?

Also, I note that ChronX never even mentioned Xtomx again ...

This warranted a study of what Claus had to say about Xtomx.

Xtomx

: I like his play. He seems direct with his accusations and his defenses. His vote follows his opinions, and his opinions are consistent. Also, he does not verborrage

That's it? This doesn't really say all that much. Also, I note that (unless I missed something), at the time Claus posted this, Xtomx had only voted one single time. Why then does Claus suggest a pattern of Xtomx's vote following his opinions? Also, Xtomx's opinions are consistent? So?

This analysis just doesn't look very genuine to me. Now, scum analysis is always less than genuine, but this strikes me as particularily muddled.

The kuribo x xtomx x Ythill love triangle

Again ... trying to connect town with scum Xtomx, just like ChronX did?

Another player that I could see a ChronX/Claus connection with is Ho1den (now Hjallti). ChronX only mentions him once (in a possible mild distancing fashion), and so does Claus:

Another lurker. Some of his posts I like (the Apy accusation, the questions to DS, and those to Ythill and Incognito regarding SSF), but he has a very timid style of accusing and not voting, or voting then later saying that he didn't want to lynch the person, that I find scummy. Middle of the road for me.

This reads to me like a pretty classic way of characterising a scum buddy. You don't want to attack them too strongly, but then again, it's quite convenient to make it known that you're not exactly defending them either. Claus can easily be said to be covering all the bases here. Also, he mentions bigger fish to be fried, thus leaving himself free to ignore Ho1den.

However, Ho1den came pretty aggressively at ChronX ... doesn't look all that much like distancing to me. Especially since Ho1den correctly points out ChronX's passive-aggressive attacks on him. I don't see scum making passive-aggressive attacks against a partner, and much less I see the same partner actually pointing this out.

ChronX never mentioned kuribo, Northjayhawk/Shteven, Apy, and JP at all.

Claus put kuribo in his 'Unlisted' pile, along with Ho1den, but attacked kuribo more strongly. I still feel kuribo is not scummy; he's certainly not top priority in my book.

Claus was pretty jolly towards Shteven, but that might easily be buddying up ...

Claus came pretty strongly against JP, and JP attacked pretty strongly back. Mutual distancing? Seems a little far-fetched ... especially since JP's clash with Claus seems quite reminiscent of his spat with known town Ythill. Also, JP started suspecting ChronX pretty early on.

Claus attacked Apy somewhat, yet seemed to be coaching him as well (Claus' post 6). However, the overall impression that I get is that Claus was buddying up to newbie town in order to look good, while still not dismissing him as a lynch candidate ... he stated multiple times that he liked others' cases against Apy.

However, this (directed at JP), bothers me a bit:

You started cool (loved your "hate pressure votes" comment), then eventually settled on Apydog. Then when you come under fire by Yth, you set all your cannons on him - eventually to the point of forgetting your previous attacks on Apy.

I can see this as a way of setting JP up to look bad if Apy gets outed as scum; like Claus is suggesting distancing from Apy on JP's behalf. Maybe I'm overthinking this, though ...

Incognito/SSK ... they're claimed mason, so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt for today.

Regarding Claus' Nice/Unlisted/Naughty division ... if we assume Incog and SSK are masons, 3/5 of the people on Claus' Naughty list are town. Of the two remaining (JP and Apy/Jester), I find the latter that much more likely to be scum. However, I tend, at this point, to think both are town. Neither should be dismissed easily, though. I'm not sure Claus would have gone as far as to place both (yes, assuming 3 scum, which is a reasonable assumption) his scumbuddies in the 'Nice' category. However, it is not that unlikely that he put at least one buddy in there, especially as there were four in all in this category.

So, I guess Xtomx is my top suspect now. Mostly due to his possible connection with Chronx, and, to a slightly lesser extent, Claus. However, this is far from solid; I'm having a hard time separating the wheat from the chaff in this game right now. I'd love to hear some opinions on these thoughts of mine.

[Shteven]

I don't really see Claus attacking Apy that hard. Do you?

It wasn't that hard, no. Just hard enough to try to get a wagon going, not hard enough to get him lynched when Apyadg came up town. This is generally smart scum play - he just got vigged in the mean time.

Some of your scummy marks against Apyadg are solid reasoning; but only one can be true. He's either scum or not. In the end you're leaning town as well, so no problem there. I think he's made mistakes, but they were just newbie mistakes. Hell, even non-newbies make mistakes sometimes. People were a bit too harsh on him.

I agree Claus/JP seemed genuinely antagonistic - I think JP's pretty clean. I think a lot of their arguments came down to playstyle differences and thus they aren't really that game relevant, sadly. It could be Claus trying to get into game theory discussions, but I didn't see much else of that from Claus so I don't think there's much to this.

Regarding Xtoxm I've already had my doubts, and that his entry on the nice list was pretty disconnected from his postings is true. Having only cast one vote, but talked about many people...it's just a bit odd. But what Claus said makes sense - he was commenting mostly on Xtoxm's playstyle, without saying anything about this particular game. He makes short posts, this is true, but it's also useless for scum hunting.

[kuribo]

ChronX never mentioned kuribo, Northjayhawk/Shteven, Apy, and JP at all.

For the record, by the time I replaced in, ChronX had all but disappeared.

[Jester]

Hi all,

I have now finished my read! Yay! As I said before, incredibly dense, cluttered game. I think I'm going to have to go back and do a second read to pick apart some of the long,

long

posts that some people here like to hit us with ( ::looks at Justin Playfair in particular:: ). That said, let's talk about what I think about the game as of now. This is a series of three posts to cut down post length, so I'm sorry for the triple post.

Here's post #1.

Let me start by saying that I'm not even going to attempt to defend or justify my predecessor taking his vote off MafiaSSK. I would have left it on until I found someone better to vote for or until the votee made a deliberate attempt to address my concerns. Neither of those things appear to have happened. The only thing I can point to is that Apyadg is somewhat inexperienced at this game (107 posts total, according to his profile). So, I wouldn't have removed the vote and Apyadg did. I don't know why he did. And that's all I'm gonna say about that. </Gump> If anyone has any other questions about my predecessor's play other than this or his hostility (which I addressed in my first post), throw 'em over and I'll do my best to answer them.

Now, before I start with my own suspicions, I should start with some assumptions. When I came into this game, the first post I read was #0, which listed the players, dead and alive, and how the dead ones died and when. I then make my own assumptions about game balance. In a 12-person game with few power-roles, 3 scum and 9 townies is balanced. But this game had a vig and a doctor, both dead, and two people have claimed pro-town mason. You don't put a doc in a game without giving him someone to protect, which means there's probably a cop in here, too. That means we've probably got lots of power roles. We've got two dead bodies, and one of them is Ythill's. Ythill's final word was "woot!", which leads me to believe that he fired the shot that killed Claus, despite the fact that he gave

no

indication that Claus was going to be his target. In most games, all kills are simultaneous so I don't think the mafia could have prevented Ythill's vig. There almost certainly isn't a mafia RB, because if there were, they certainly would have blocked Ythill.

However, Xtoxm brought up the possibility of a SK, and I have to say I agree with him, at least a little (and I'm ready to take the heat for doing so). The reason I do is for two reasons:
:arrow: because of

how

Ythill was killed. Tied to the railroad tracks? Ew. And...
:arrow: As I said, game balance. If Incognito and SSK are telling the truth, there are potentially five pro-town power roles. That's a lot. I can't see a four-scum mafia in a 12-person game. That would be hugely unbalancing. So three mafia against five pro-town power-roles? Xtoxm is right. That's hugely unbalanced, too.

Before anyone bitches that there should have been three kills on night one, I can see a couple of potential SK situations that don't disrupt the night one kills. Here's the easiest: Ythill did indeed shoot Claus. But Ythill himself was tied to the train tracks by the SK, not the mafia. But who did the mafia kill, you ask? Ythill, of course. It just wasn't obvious in the examination of Ythill's body. I've been simultaneously SK'ed and mafia NK'ed in games before. Only sometimes does the mod make a double attack apparent, and Ythill invited such a double attack. So, let's not discount the possibility of a SK just yet, k?

I can see three balanced possibilities:
:arrow: The doc was included to protect the vig, we have

no

cop, and we started with three mafia scum. Two mafia left, no SK.
:arrow: We have both a vig and a cop, plus the mason claim is true, and we started with three mafia scum and a SK. Two mafia and a SK left.
:arrow: We have both a vig and a cop, the mason claim is only semi-true, and we either have a mafia mason or a cult. Insanely complicated for a mini normal, but a possibility. Two mafia left, plus the mafia mason/cult.
And of course, the game could be

un

balanced. It could include five pro-town power roles and three scum, and just be badly unbalanced in favor of the town. I'm in favor of that.

All of THAT said, this will be my last pro-active post on game setup until the night two evidence comes in. But right now, my money's on us seeing two kills on night two. If SSK had claimed to be pro-town mason, I would have scoffed, but it's Incognito that did, and I think he's pro-town, so for now, I'm inclined to believe the claim (which means that I have to believe Incognito when he vouches for MafiaSSK). I'll cover more of that in post #2. So for now, until I have good reason to think otherwise, I'm hunting with the assumption that there could be three scum left.

[kuribo]

Why would the SK assume that the Mafia is going to kill anyone other than the claimed vig? Why would he waste a kill going after a claimed vig, knowing that the doctor had died and couldn't protect him?

I'm sorry, but at this point, the evidence doesn't support the existence of a serial killer.

[Shteven]

Jester does make it seem possible, but I'm still leaning on this option:

The doc was included to protect the vig, we have no cop, and we started with three mafia scum. Two mafia left, no SK.

I don't think two masons are nearly as useful as something like 2 cops would be, so just calling it 4 power roles (5 if we have a cop) is misleading. Maybe count the pair as one power role? In any case, I wouldn't think that vig/doc/masons vs 3 scum is unbalanced. Add a cop, and maybe slightly townish, but nothing I'd be upset over if I was scum. Still pretty fair.

[Jester]

Post #2.

So, claims. Lots of them. Ythill's, as I mentioned a couple of posts ago, was a mistake. It was a mistake not only because it came too early, but because Ythill apparently didn't even contemplate the possibility of a mafia RB. I didn't mention a 4th or a 5th balanced setup that this game could have had:
:arrow: Doc, cop, vig, two masons, four townies, mafia GF, mafia, mafia RB.
:arrow: Doc, vig, two masons, five townies, mafia, mafia, mafia RB.
...because we don't have a mafia RB. If we did, he certainly would have blocked Ythill's kill.

I proceed from the assumption that Ythill

did

kill Claus. The kill method is consistent with a vig, and Ythill's death post started with "woot!". I take this woot as a bread-crumb: Ythill shot, and hit, the target he wanted to hit. But why shoot Claus, and not Incognito or Shteven, who Ythill was suspicious of for so long? To answer that question, I think we go back to Ythill's post 471, which weirdly, nobody has brought up!

In that post, Ythill has four major suspects and two minor ones:
:arrow: Claus. "Either he's scum or Justin is," Ythill says, "for reasons that will be apparent during a reread." The reasons, I believe, are the very credible argument between the two of them centered on posts 315 and 382. These two are pretty clearly not on the same side. A very smart read on Ythill's part (though see my post #3).
:arrow: Incognito. Though it's clear that Ythill's convictions had wavered about Incognito. Ythill suggests reading Incognito's defenses in light of Ythill's attacks after Ythill's death, but Ythill had a blind spot in seeing every post as an attack or a defense or a nothing. MS isn't that clear-cut.
:arrow: Justin. He's also clearly conflicted about Justin, and suggests that the cop (if any) investigate him.
:arrow: Shteven. Of Shteven, Ythill says, "the majority of the tells I uncovered regarding he and his predecessor were dropped while defending and under pressure which, IMO, makes them less reliable". I disagree. In my experience, tells dropped under pressure are the most reliable... if you know how to read them.
:arrow: On the low end, my predecessor. Ythill admits, "I’m very wary of the case against him because of my current suspicions." A key line. I'll come back to it in a sec.
:arrow: Also on the low end, Xtoxm. "His late D1 play taints him a bit", Ythill says. I agree. More from me on this in my post #3.

So, if we are to assume that Ythill killed Claus, why did he do that? I think there are three reasons:
:arrow: Why not Incognito? Because he'd either: a) come to doubt his position on Incognito, or b) felt that on his death, Incognito's scumminess would become so self-apparent that he'd be wasting a bullet on Incognito. I've already given my own position on Incognito: he's either the scummiest scum ever to walk the earth, or he's the towniest townie in this game's history, with no middle ground. I currently believe his claim, and am therefore pushed into the latter camp. So, either Ythill shoots a townie, or the town does the job on Incognito for him. Either way, no need to put a vig bullet here.
:arrow: Why not Shteven? Again, it's clear that Ythill came to doubt his own case on Shteven. I think Shteven is scummy, for reasons that I'll detail in my post #3, but Ythill clearly doubted himself here.
:arrow: Why Claus? I think Claus turned the vig gun on himself with his nice/naughty list. Who built the primary case against my predecessor? Justin. Who was on Claus's naughty list... BOTH Justin and Apyadg! I think Ythill looked at Claus's naughty list, saw both Justin and Apyadg on it, and concluded that either both JP and myself were scum, or Claus was scum. Justin built the case against me, and Claus directly referred to JP's case in putting me on his naughty list... but then put JP on his naughty list as well! Claus believed someone on his own naughty list? A clear contradiction. That's why Ythill said he came to doubt the case against me, and why he said either Claus is dirty or Justin is. It was a signal to the town that if Ythill shot Claus and Claus turned up town... that we should turn our collective eyes toward either Incognito and JP, or JP and myself. "If he [Apyadg, now me] dies and comes up town, put Incog and Justin in the hot seat," Ythill said.

It was a very nice, logical play. With one shooting, you get good information about four players.

In Ythill's view

, if Claus turns up scum, JP is in the clear, and Incognito and myself are probably in the clear. If Claus turns up town, JP and myself are almost certainly scum, and Incognito is probably scum. I'm not sure I agree with that view, but the logic holds together. It was a righteous shooting. Nice job, Ythill.

If anyone reads 471 differently, please let me know. I think it's an important post because it's the last thing we'll get from Ythill in this game.

So much for claims. Now on to my suspicions. That's post #3.

[Xtoxm]

I did bring up that point on why I think he killed Claus earlier, I think. But yeh I agree with that.