Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!

[liamcool]

I love your sig, Phate, being a Cure fan.

Nothing to add right now, but I can't post for at least the next 48 hours (I have a massive paper to write for Modern History.) I will be reading the thread though.

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

Here are some of my thoughts on the players of this game:

Bookitty: On day one, it seems unlikely that scum would be willing to draw so much attention to their partners so early in the game. On the first day she went after Egruntz very strongly. If Bookitty is scum, I don’t think she is on the same team as Egruntz

Liamcool: Posts enough to keep off my lurker lists, but what has he said?

Phate: Posts little, mostly one-liners that encourage discussion. I don’t recall seeing him express suspicion on anyone except whomever he votes for.

Antithesis: Claimed cop on day one. I feel this is usually a poor strategy, but in this case it may have prevented his lynching. If he were lying then no doubt the real cop would have investigated him on night one. Because no one has counter-claimed, I believe either he told the truth and is the cop, or he lied and was found innocent by the real cop. The possibility that he is a godfather is still open.

Hasdgfas: He seems careful to be non-confrontational and to appear helpful. I don’t know if this means he is careful scum or careful townie.

Xyzzy: Lurker, but has started contributing more.

Panzerjager: Seems to have a lot of knowledge of the games setup. He suggested, on day one before there was any evidence to support him, that there were two scum groups.(See post 369)

There are probably more then 3 scum cause it's 18 player game.. My guess is either one group of 4 or 2 groups of 3. I try to avoid doctor speculation.

How could anyone other than scum know that on the first day?
On day two, he presented a rather detailed nightkill analysis. (See post 455)

Okay before I adovacate the lynch of egruntz with a case I want to indulge in some kill speculation. I think that a vig/sk killed CKD and that there are 2 mafia groups, Xyl's thinking that Fonz was a threat and the other group thinking Xyl was a threat

Was he able to be so detailed because he was in on one of the killings?
He also seems to know how many are in each scum group but is unwilling to tell us how he knows. (See post 584)

As to my musings of the setup, I have been saying that there are 2 groups of 3 all game. I cannot say much more right now with out giving to much of my thought process then I'm willing right now. I can promise that it will make sense in time, as most things do.

Also interesting is his about-face on Egruntz. On day one, he expressed iritation with Egruntz’s idea of no lynch, but didn’t vote for him or give an FoS. He even went as far as to say he thought he was innocent. (See post 243)

I think egruntz is town. I really do.

His day one posts seem like he is trying to tell Egruntz to drop the no lynch argument and distance himself also. (See posts 24, 48, and 150) On day two, after scum have had a chance to talk, he is suddenly one of the most vocal pushing for Egruntz’s lynch. This smells of bussing to me.

Volkan: I like his analyisis of each player. He seems open-minded and intellegent. If he is scum, he is a very dangerous one. The only thing I find suspicious about him is the zero interaction both he and his predecessor had with Xylthixlm.

Rishi: Replaced in late in day one. Pointed out that Xylthixlm and Egruntz names are different colors. As I stated earlier, I don’t see this as a scum or innocent tell as both are likely to point out the difference. However, this seems to be his only contribution to the game.

Skruffs: Like Volkan, neither he or his predecessor have any interaction with Xylthixlm. Were the three of them purposely avoiding each other so as not to reveal one another if they got caught?

OhGodMyLife: I see some distancing with Xylthixlm from him. Day one he voted for Xylthixlm. (See post 182) In his very next post, he removed his vote. (See post 304)

OK, Xyl, you've more than reassured me, so thank you for addressing that. The biggest reason for my vote was because I think the DS bandwagon and constant talk of egruntz' no-lynch theory were consuming too much of the town's attention and I wanted to get people to look elsewhere.

On day two, he tried to get some brownie points for “going after Xylthixlm” (See post 454)

I find it ironic that the townie(fonz) who came after me when I went after the mafia goon(xyl) also ended up dead. Along with the other person I was suspicious of(CKD). I'm gonna have to go have another look at day one, but right now what people are saying about egruntz is making sense, and his own posts are not doing anything to help his case.

In short, I think Panzerjager was scum partners with Egruntz and OGML was scum partners with Xylthixlm.

In order of most suspicious to least:
Panzerjager
OhGodMyLife
Liamcool
Xyzzy
Rishi
Phate
Hasdgfas
Volkan
Skruffs
Bookitty
Antithesis

Unvote : Xyzzy
Vote : Panzerjager

[hasdgfas]

Snaps: How would a scum know that there were two scum groups in the first place?

Nothing to add right now, but I can't post for at least the next 48 hours (I have a massive paper to write for Modern History.) I will be reading the thread though.

vote: liamcool

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

Snaps: How would a scum know that there were two scum groups in the first place?

In most New York Games, there is 4 or 5 mafia. If scum got a PM at the beginning of the game saying he less than three scum buddies, he could conclude that there are probably two scum groups. On the other hand, a townie, in a closed game, has no clue as to number of scum or scum groups involved.

[Antithesis]

Snaps: How would a scum know that there were two scum groups in the first place?

In most New York Games, there is 4 or 5 mafia. If scum got a PM at the beginning of the game saying he less than three scum buddies, he could conclude that there are probably two scum groups. On the other hand, a townie, in a closed game, has no clue as to number of scum or scum groups involved.

As a former Don in a game offsite that involved two mafias and an SK, I'd echo this thought.

It was as simple as looking at the total number of players and comparing it against the lack of numbers in my group and I knew as soon as I read my PM that there was another mafia/cult in the game.

I was just thinking about something from that game and I realized that Panzer is most likely town. That is if there are two scum groups. If there is just one then I am completely lost, hehe.

Any chance we can get an updated vote count?

[vollkan]

Review of Snaps

0: FoSes Phate and Sens for not random voting (hypocrisy, no? )
1: nothing
2: theory

3: Declares he will most likely be voting DS for "lurking and bandwagoning. Both very common mafia tells." They are also very unreliable mafia tells. Now, come late in D1, when all DS had done was BW hop and add nothing, there is a valid argument for lynching him - his play is patently anti-town, and an easy way for scum to hide. However, this was just one day into the game - I am surprised Snaps seems to just assume that DS's chaos is pointless (eg. consider someone like Adel).
4: Reiterates his lurking-based suspicion of DS. Swipes at Mills for pushing a meta-based lynch of DS. Interesting two paragraphs follow:

egruntz is trying very hard to be helpful to the town.

Sometimes a player that appears to be trying too hard to help the town, actually is trying to help the town. I get the feeling this is the case with Egruntz. There has been much make of his seeming "newness", yet he tells us he has played before. Mafia playing up newbie tells to gain a bit of FoI is ploy that has been used before.

Currently my highest suspicions are Disciple Slayer and Egruntz. We have a few lurkers as well, and they always have my suspicion. However, I am willing to give a few more days before calling them out, as this is a busy time of year and I'd like to give them the benifit of the doubt.

It's completely unclear what he thinks of egruntz - On one hand he suggests egr may actually be pro-town, but then goes on to raise conspiracy of him being mafia concocting newbtells, and then lists egr as one of his two highest suspicions.

I can see this as scum pushing an easy lynch (two actually, given DS) or as distancing (given the weakness of his attacks and him combining egr with another suspect).

5: Weird post in which he stresses that Boo disagreeing with Fonz does not necessitate that one is scum, and he seems to think distancing is an unlikely gambit because they wouldn't have time to plan it

In my experience, distancing is not something you "plan" anyway.

6: Xyl notes the weirdness in Snaps' suspicion of Egr. He shifts his story to say that he was not actually suspicious of egr, but was concerned about the potential fabrication of newbtells

In short, he's contriving a conspiracy theory - and anyone that's played with me before knows I loathe this sort of "reasoning".

7: DS's first three posts are "blatent bandwagon votes"

Oh, right - and that's scummy how?

Thinks DS is the most suspicious

This is all based solely on the assumption that BWing and chaos = scum, which is wrong this early on

8: Theory

9: Lurkerhunting. Votes DS for "obvious bandwagon votes and lack of contribution to the discussion"

Again, when things get down to the wire, these reasons are valid - but so far, all you have been doing is pushing DS for what are pretty dreadful reasons

10: Suspicion list:

1. Disciple Slayer is a lurker and bandwangoner, and seems the most likely candidate to be mafia yet. (posts #56,#72,#103)
2. Mills has aroused my suspicion by using aspects of another game to fuel his arguments against Disciple Slayer, at least at first. (post #72)
3. Egruntz's idea of no lynch on day one has put him on my watch list. (post #72,#81)
4. Lurkers, regardless of status, hurt the town. (post #131)

This shows very little in-depth analysis. He seems to just be jumping on what seems most obviously "anti-town" rather than actually trying to properly work out who is scum. Again, anti-town-hunting is valid at a point, but it should NOT be all that a player does. We are yet to see Snaps actually making inquiries about these behaviours - to try and work out whether this stuff is actually scummy.

11: Defends gut feelings, but says it is worth trying to figure out where they came from, because they can be mafia screening

I agree with you here. My policy for dealing with people who declare "gut feelings" is to demand that they find objective justification for their feelings. If they don't, I will hound them down until they do so, or relinquish the gut feeling. I detest "gut feelings" - they are a sneaky means of turning reasons for suspicion (which should be objective) into a murky subjective thing.

12: nothing

13: Puts DE at second most suspect due to lack of contribution

More lurker-hunting. Look there is nothing wrong with aggression towards lurkers (eg. Listing them a whole swag of questions and demanding they either answer, explain why they can't, or ask to be replaced since they can't play) but lurking =/= suspicious

14: After DE says he thinks DS is town (dodgily, since he gives no explanation), Snaps misrepresents this and says: "This post seems to me like Dark Ermac KNOWS Disciple Slayer is a townie" and says this is suspicious.

Whilst DE's lack of explanation was worth questioning, he did not say he KNEW. The last few sentences seemed more certain, but in whole context it seems that he is just saying that he thinks DS is town. Again, Snaps leaps without questioning. The mistake Snaps makes here is a reasonable one, and I made it myself - but since it was pointed out to Snaps later, I don't think he can tenably maintain this view.

15: Mills makes the same observation as I just did about DE. Snaps says that he can sees Mills' point, but then he just reiterates his own previous view. Snaps then cites the next post by DE where DE states:

It's better to think about the vote than it is to just vote for them because they seem scummy.

Believe me when I say this: he's town.

I may not be 100% accurate, but from past experiences

I know this

.

{Bolding is Snaps'}

It should be pretty clear that what DE is saying is that he knows that village-idiots are often townies. The second "I know this" bolded is completely misrepresentative, since snaps ignores the bit about the past experiences bit. Basically, again, Snaps leaps on the obvious without looking more deeply.

16: Reiterates the same attacks against DS as justification for DS being #1, and re-asserts DE as #2. This quote is troubling:

We need to use the first few days to strip away the places that mafia traditionaly hide. Lurking, mindless bandwagoning etc.

Really? We should spend the first few days not scumhunting and, instead, go about getting rid of the people who play at a substandard level?

He also swipes at DE's defense (that it just looked scummy in writing, but it wasn't what he meant), without considering the potential truth of this. Reiterates he thinks DE was saying "he knows" (Snaps doesn't elaborate as to why)

17: Suspects Eteocles, Dark Ermac, Mill’s replacement. Compiles a lurker list.

18: Reiterates his views on DS - "mafia in plain sight"

19: "I still feel that DS/Ecto is the strongest case for scum, but I will be willing to change my vote to Mills/Anti or DE as they both seem scummy to me."

20: nothing

21: Vote/FoS history

22: More arguments against DE. Some of these are valid (most notably, an unexplained backslip on DS), but he also reiterates the attacks on the "I know" posts and the typing style post. Ends up voting DE, admits there is nothing tremendously scummy, but a lot of little things.

It's a few little things, and a few misrepresentations

23: Suggests the people Xyl had mutual ignorance of may be buddies.
24: Setup speculation about a paranoid doc.
25: Says it was only an idea and he isn't assuming it - personally thinks RB is responsible
26: "I only brought up the jailkeeper/paranoid doctor senario scenario because we shouldn't discount any possibilities. "
27: nothing
28: Jumps on egr after he confesses.
29: Vote/FoS review
30: Says xyzzy looks like mafia lurkiing

Question: Why not town lurking?

31: Asks panzer to explain phate vote
32: Doesn't think what RIshi did is scummy as Skruffs said
33: Jumps to liam, another lurker since xyzzy is on V/LA
34: Realises Liam is also V/LA, but keeps the vote

Odd...he takes it off zz

35: theory
36: Most suspects Liam, xyzzy and phate

Reasons for each, please

37:Swaps to zz for lurking again
38: Says lurkerhunting is a viable strategy.

NO! Lurking is anti-town, yes. It doesn't help, yes. Is lurking scummy? No. Whilst town don't have an actual game-based motivation to lurk, that doesn't mean that scum are more likely than town to lurk. Lurking will often draw undue attention and, if the other players have any functioning brain cells, a barrage of "What is your opinion on...." questions. Voting lurkers is as anti-town as lurking. Lurkers need to be dealt with aggressively, but lynching them is just stupid. It stunts discussion (you don't need to make arguments to lynch lurkers), hands the scum free NKs and, more often than note, diminishes the size of the town. Now, the other thing I need to address is meta: Some people post less than the average; some people most more. For some people, this might (in theory) be due to their alignemnt. In such cases, a lurker lynch could be valid. However, Snaps, you have not once given meta evidence for any of your lurker targets being more likely to lurk as scum - so this doesn't apply here.

39: Doesn't understand the logic about scum jumping on after egr's claim. Says defensive behaviour from lurkers can be judged

As can defensive behaviour from ANYBODY (But, of course, it's much easier to go after people who you won't need arguments to justify your attacks upon, isn't it? )

Says there has usually always been scum amongst lurkers

This is my experience too. But there is also usually always town amongst lurkers. Lurking itself is a null-tell.

40: Thoughts on the players:
Bookitty - she is not likely scum with egr

I agree

Liam - Says he is not lurking anymore
Phate - Mostly one-liners with little expressed suspicion
Antithesis - Says he is either lying, or was found innocent by the real cop, but may be a GF.

For this to make sense, we either have to assume a townie would lie, or that there are at least two cops

hasd - non-confrontational
zz - lurker beginning not to lurk
Panzer - Accuses of having set-up knowledge. The first quote Snaps cites to justify this is one which is clearly just speculation from Panzer; it gives no suggestion of knowledge. Same with Panzer's detailed NK analysis. Notes a backflip by Panzer towards egr

@ Panzer: Please address this backflip

Vollkan - He likes my analyses. And describes me as "open-minded and intellegent. If he is scum, he is a very dangerous one."

Ass-kissing will get you nowhere.

Only thing suspicious is the non-interaction me and my predecessor had with Xyl.

Rishi - Doesn't find the colour thing scummy, but that seems to be Rishi's only entry

Skruffs - Again raises the spectre of non-interaction with Xyl as a scumtell

OGML: Notes the distancing, and an effort to score brownie points.

Suspicion list:

In order of most suspicious to least:
Panzerjager
OhGodMyLife
Liamcool
Xyzzy
Rishi
Phate
Hasdgfas
Volkan
Skruffs
Bookitty
Antithesis

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The biggest problem here is the total lack of actual scumhunting. He goes after lurkersm, BWers and similar "easy targets" without asking the necessary questions or showing adequate depth of reasoning. His comment about lynching lurkers for the first few days remains ringing in my head. I peg this at

65%

. And, again, I call on snaps to explain himself - on the basis of which I may push this up or down.
~~~~~~~~~~~~

As for OGML, his response to me was simply that I review his answers to Bookitty. I did this in a previous post and found nothing convincing - in fact it brought up more criticism. So:

Vote: OGML

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally,

@ Anyone voting ZZ:

Explain to me why you think ZZ is scum.

[Rishi]

Rishi: Replaced in late in day one. Pointed out that Xylthixlm and Egruntz names are different colors. As I stated earlier, I don’t see this as a scum or innocent tell as both are likely to point out the difference. However, this seems to be his only contribution to the game.

Very, very busy. Trying to cut back on the number of games I'm in, but the only way I can do that is by dying in games (since I don't like asking to be replaced).

March is going to be slightly less busy for me, so you'll start seeing more contributions then.

Still, I don't like the wishy-washy analysis on every player. What you're doing is much worse - pretending to contribute without actually providing any content.

[vollkan]

Still, I don't like the wishy-washy analysis on every player. What you're doing is much worse - pretending to contribute without actually providing any content.

This is something which I hoped would come across in my analysis of his analysis. The only people he takes an actual town/scum stance on are Panzer (though he only makes one good point here) and OGML (restates what's already been noted).

[Elias_the_thief]

The Official "Boom Chicka Wah Wah!" Flavorless Votecount:

OhGodMyLife - 3

(Vollkan, Bookitty, panzerjager)

Snaps the pirate - 2

(OhGodMyLife, Phate)

liamcool - 1

(hasdgfas)

panzerjager - 1

(Snaps the pirate)

Xyzzy - 1

(Antithesis)

Rishi - 1

(Skruffs)

Phate - 0

Antithesis - 0

Bookitty - 0

Hasdgfas - 0

Skruffs - 0

Vollkan - 0

Nobody - 3

(Xyzzy, liamcool, Rishi)

With

12

alive, it will take

7

to lynch.

---

Deadline will be

Sunday, March 9th, at 10 PM EST.

[Antithesis]

Finally, @ Anyone voting ZZ: Explain to me why you think ZZ is scum.

The lack of input for 1.
He replaced Dragonprincess, who i saw giving a defense of Egruntz before she was replaced. For a bit of Meta, after she was replaced in this game, she was still active in others to a degree, so I wonder if she perhaps opted out after going to bat for Egruntz.

Then again when I re-read that I saw Dragon's defense was half hearted at best and there was a stetch of time when she was replaced that she wasn't posting elsewhere on the site. So I am going to discount that thinking now.

I would say he voted poorly day 1, but hell, so did I. His anger at people speed lynching an admitted mafia person struck me as extremely odd. Almost like he was mad that he didn't have time to have his vote be seen and counted too!

But that was me reading him with the added Dragonprincess onus.

While I don't think he's a proven townie, I am leaning more and more into distrusting Snaps. If my hunch is right, Panzer can be trusted. ANd Snaps jumping from ZZ to Panzer could be a desperate attempt to distract people or stir the pot.

unvote Xyzzy

vote OGML

[PJ.]

@ Backflip, Did anyone notice scum died Night 1? Well I did. Do you know what happens when scum die? It gives the town context. Why does context matters? Same reason why my flip flop of egruntz is considered scummy now when it wasn't then. "OMG he changed his opinion on a mafia member, he must of bussed him" No one would have gave a damn or even brought up my change of opinion.

The reason is that I thought that he very well could have been scum due to his interactions with Xyl, since Xyl was scum and egruntz was under the gun, I used context to assume his lurking was scum-related.

[xyzzy]

Panzer, when you removed that explanation from your butt, did it hurt?

[PJ.]

It wasn't from my butt, ask your mom where it came from.

[xyzzy]

Was that supposed to be a random burn?

I'd prefer actual responses. Also, you're scum.

Vote: panzer

[xyzzy]

Vote: Panzer

[OhGodMyLife]

I've been thinking about this game for a couple of days, and I've come to the conclusion that the best case for the town is actually my lynch today, because the longer I live and the closer we get to LyLo the more likely it becomes that my eventual lynch will lose us the game. Given my poor judgment on day one, I have accepted that my lynch is inevitable, be it today or another day. There are plausible arguments for me to be a member of either scum team, meaning that not only am I scummy looking to town-aligned players, but members of both scum teams probably think I'm on the other one.

FoS: hasdgfas

, you're active in other games but all you can do here is shoot off a one liner and vote liamcool for lurking? Just disinterested in the game, or trying to stay off the map? You rode the DS/eteo wagon all of day one, and haven't really said anything day two or three.

[hasdgfas]

To be honest, I'm kinda lost in this one.
Note: I'm not voting liamcool for lurking, I'm voting him for what he said.

I'll give my basic thoughts at this point. I don't really like the wagon on OGML, it doesn't feel right. Panzer and zz both seem a bit iffy, and I voted for liamcool because I always find it scummy when people come in to say "I don't see anything bye"

[PJ.]

Well switch your vote to OGML cause anyone who gives up is stupid or scum.

[hasdgfas]

I'm not switching my vote to OGML because I don't think he's scum at this time.

[Skruffs]

I actually agree with Panzer's train of thought earlier up in this page.

Unvote, Vote : Xyzzy

for not getting it.

[PJ.]

I totally misread Cows post. I apoligize. I actually think at this point I'm gonna have to

Unvote, Vote:Snaps

I think this is where my feelings should be. OGML kinda seems somewhat sincere in his efforts.

[Bookitty]

I'm happy with my vote where it is, but I also see and agree with the logic behind a Snaps lynch for reasons I previously stated.

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

And, again, I call on snaps to explain himself

I’m not sure what I’m being called to explain. A little more specific please, Volkan.
I stand by my previous posts, and have tried to make them as clear as possible. However I don’t mind answering questions about them.

Lurkerhunting:
Yes, I am a lurkerhunter. Lurking is an anti-town behavior and must not be tolerated. Lurking causes games to stall, stifles conversation, and provides cover for the mafia. I will always put pressure on lurkers because of this. True, it is better for lurkers to be replaced, and if that is a possibility it is one I endorse. However, the problem comes when we have a lurker or few who post just enough to avoid being replaced.

My votes:
On day one I voted Disciple Slayer, not only because he was lurking, but because he was distracting the town and not even attempting to contribute. I didn’t then, and don’t now see why a townie would act in that way.
On day two I initially voted for Dark Ermac. I thought he was scum because he seemed to have information that only scum would have. Looking back at his posts, it still seems to me that he was saying he KNEW Disciple Slayer was innocent, though I know now he couldn’t have know for sure. Another reason I was suspicions of him was because he ignored my allegations. I changed my vote to Egruntz when he claimed scum, because he claimed scum. I am sure everyone who didn’t would have if they had the chance.
On day three I voted for Xyzzy and Liamcool because they were lurking and I wanted to pressure them into contributing. Xyzzy has since, but Liamcool has yet to. I changed my vote to Panzerjager because his sudden change from day one “I think Egruntz is town” to day two “I like lynching newbie scum. (Egruntz)” looks like bussing to me.

As you can plainly see from my voting record, I may be a lurkerhunter, but that is not my sole criteria for casting a vote.

On “conspiracy theories” and being “wishy washy”:
I believe that is important to consider all possibilities. That is why I brought up the possibility of a jailkeeper or that Antithesis might be lying about his role. I personally don’t think either of those is the case, but needed to be addressed as possibilities.


I hope that this clears up the questions some of you may have had about my posts. If not, please ask me and I will gladly respond to any questions you may have.


In anticipation of some “over-defensive” accusations, I’d like to point out the quote at the top of my post and remind everyone that I was called upon to “explain myself.”

[Rishi]

Lurkerhunting:
Yes, I am a lurkerhunter. Lurking is an anti-town behavior and must not be tolerated. Lurking causes games to stall, stifles conversation, and provides cover for the mafia. I will always put pressure on lurkers because of this. True, it is better for lurkers to be replaced, and if that is a possibility it is one I endorse. However, the problem comes when we have a lurker or few who post just enough to avoid being replaced.

Here's the problem, though. There are all sorts of reasons that people could be lurking, many of which have absolutely nothing to do with the game itself. Sometimes scum legitimately try to hide by not posting much, which might work in a game this large.

You're relatively new, so I ask you this. Is this your first game with two scum groups? The difference between this and most setups is that the scum are just as interested in scumhunting as the townies. Unless there's some kind of wacky win condition (doubtful), the scum usually need to eliminate the other scum group in order to secure victory. As long as the other scum team lives, a win is impossible.

So, yeah, I could see scum trying to fly under the radar, but most likely, they are actually trying to find scum. That's the tricky thing about this game.

[Rishi]

I'm happy with my vote where it is, but I also see and agree with the logic behind a Snaps lynch for reasons I previously stated.

Oh... and speaking of wishy-washiness (not to mention that this post is awfully agreeable).