Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[Lowell]

vote incognito

[Lowell]

After my extensive and rigorous metagaming of the 4 or so games avinashv has joined in something like a week's time (crazy noob), I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

Wow. You got me. I can't argue with that.

[Lowell]

unvote, vote thephantom

. After the first page I like vote for people narrate their play to prove how normal they're playing.

[Lowell]

^^^
insert "who" between "people" and "narrate"

[Lowell]

I dont' think claiming townie on D1 really matters. Let's all just chill out.

[Lowell]

Based on a whiff of something, I'm working on a theory of a Near/Y scumteam.

unvote, vote Y

[Lowell]

Aight whatever.

unvote, vote Near

.

[Lowell]

MP is turning it aournd in my book. I won't vote for him at this time.

[Lowell]

Lowell:
Could you please explain the theory behind the Y/Near scumteam? I don't seems to see it at the moment.

It seemed a little like Y was coaching Near a bit in his post. Again, this isn't exactly a smoking gun, but it's good enough.

As for the MP thing. I know I'm a sucker for WIFOM, but I just don't buy that he killed the vig during the night, then showed up and claimed not to know what was going on, calling a lot of attention to himself. I won't vote for him.

[Lowell]

I think "subtle coaching" is a more common scum tactic than "let's do the same thing for the same reason!" If anything the latter is more likely a scum trying to curry favor with a townie.

[Lowell]

Wow this a heavy posting game. I like it.

[Lowell]

As an aside, can those geniuses who think dice-roll voting is useful just, you know, agree to eliminate THEMSELVES from the set of choices for said dice? I'd just as soon not have to sit through another discussion of whether self-voting is/is not a scumtell. Like, ever.

[Lowell]

FTR, this dice debate is useless.

[Lowell]

Prod received. Sorry all, left for the weekend.

[Lowell]

I'm having second thoughts about Y. He's no longer atop my scum list.

[Lowell]

I read back. I have a few more things. Starting from page 6.

I think Sammich and XReyoX are innocent. Sammich, because, even though he's a moron who can't work out the simple math of how to use 2 dice to give an even chance of voting for 11 people, he doesn't strike me a scummy per say.

XReyoX, as much as I don't really care about many of the "points" he brings up, does seem to be the one driving discussion, which is good.

MP I've already said strikes me as being genuine about his role.

unvote, vote gorkat

. I'm not really sure I understand the point of his defense of sammich. It seems like he saw someone in trouble and used it as an opportunity to make himself look good. Couple that with the fact that he doesn't do much (yes, yes, pot, kettle, black, whatever) is good enough.

For those I haven't mentioned, I'm still working on...

[Lowell]

Your voting him now means nothing to me.

[Lowell]

To answer incognito, I think that Y is pushing the analysis along more than a scum would, especially in such a quick-posting game.

[Lowell]

Just once I'd like to be in game in which everyone doesn't immediately cry "jester"

[Lowell]

Well look I'm one prod from being replaced already. I'm keeping my vote where it is.

[Lowell]

It seemed a little like Y was coaching Near a bit in his post. Again, this isn't exactly a smoking gun, but it's good enough.

unvote, vote gorkat. I'm not really sure I understand the point of his defense of sammich. It seems like he saw someone in trouble and used it as an opportunity to make himself look good. Couple that with the fact that he doesn't do much (yes, yes, pot, kettle, black, whatever) is good enough.

Twice you've qualified your vote reasons as "good enough". Earlier you got tangled in Incognito's web of voting back and forth on Y/Near. Now, despite a lot, including my response to your vote, you're "keeping [your] vote where it is."

FoS: Lowell

I don't like "good enough" reasons when there's been as much animated back and forth as we've had. It sounds really non-committal.

Says the guy with all the FOSs...

It IS non-committal. What do you want me to say? I'm guessing here.

[Lowell]

Xrey, are you picking just the posts you think are important, or what? I don't fully get the organization.

[Lowell]

I'm due a reread as well. Here are the first 8 or 9 pages. Look for more tomorrow or Thursday, along with stunning analysis and devastation conclusions.

5- MP claims vanilla townie, votes avinashv
7- XRey votes MP for being a dumbass
10- Dice-gate begins, Sammich self-votes
14, 16- Imat, MP vote Sammich for self-vote
25- jerubbaal metagames, votes Lowell for avin kill
35- Incog asks to know the meta that causes jerub's vote
36- Incog wants Near to post
41- Jerub asks for full claim from MP
45- Incog votes MP for being a dumbass
49- cat_herder votes MP for being a dumbass
54- Sammich claims vanilla
55- Xrey confused
57- Imat complains of vanilla claims, asks for EXACT role
59- Incog points out vanilla PM is given on Page 1 [suspicious, who is he trying to tell?]
60- Imat justifies the "claim" gambit [good post]
61- Jerub votes Imat for fearmongering [also good post, hadn't thought of that]
65- Incog backs off, votes Near
67- Y enters, suspects MP and Sammich for saying "townie" instead of "townsperson"
70- MP votes Y [OMGUSy]
73- Near votes sammich for vouching for MP [good reason]
74- Y posts more thoughts, about jerub and Sammich, asks for more from Near
76- MP leads w/ 3 votes
79- Lowell votes Y for prompting Near
81- On Incog's advice, Lowell switches vote to Near
82-84- Sammich, Y, and Imat all disagree w/ Lowell
85- Near votes Imat for overplaying his "displeasure" in early developments
93- Sammich FOSs Lowell for following Incog
103- Xrey posits "MP as Jester" theory
108- jerub vouches for MP's dumbassery, is suspicious of sammich wagon, votes Near [good post]
111- jerub elaborates MP defense [good]
112- Incog defends jerub [strange post]
113- MP votes Y, defends behavior [good post]
115- post from thephantom, thinks it is "possible" MP isn't scum [useless filler]
116- Y continues attack on MP [seems gratuitous]
129- Jerub submits "value lynch" case on MP [kinda gutsy]
136-137- Xrey, destructor support MP lynch to keep him from getting to endgame
131,139,141- Incog, Lowell, sammich do not want to lynch MP
143- Lowell explains post 79 re: Near/Y
144,147- Xrey, Incog disagree... sort of
164- Near summarizes, clears XRey, Imat, MP, suspects Lowell, Jerub
175- "Dice-gate" breaks out between Near and sammich
176,177- Incog, Imat call out Near for post 164 [good]
178,179- Near defends
187- Xrey and Incog jump into "Dice" fray, Xrey supports Near, Incog against
203- After arduous debate, Sammich confesses to inventing dice roll
207- Near votes sammich
216- jerub supports Near's case against sammich

n.b.- This organizational style is for my benefit only. Just posting my notes as I make them. For recall purposes.

[Lowell]

Here's the rest:

225- Sammich denies making up dice roll
231- Near continues to press sammich
244- Ripley enters, attacks sammich and Imat, defends Near and MP [good post]
247- Y votes Near, disagrees strongly with Ripley
250- XRey disagrees with Y's reasoning [oddly doesn't mention Near]
251- Y expands case on Near
253- MP returns, votes Near to L-1, for reasons of "not all on the bandwagon can be scum" [uh, okay]
256- Incog unvotes, says wagon moving too fast [suspicious]
260-262- Near defends against charges [mediocre]
263-265- XRey, Y, and MP all say that "Dice-gate" is stupid and quesiton why Near cares so much [true]
267- jerub unvotes, suspects MP, supports Near
276- Ripley wants clear closure to dice situation, suggests we take precautions against MP, who may have "private win condition" [a stretch, I think]
277- gorckat calls Ripley's post a reach [good], wants to focus on MP, however
281,282- Xrey, gorckat vote sammich for evasiveness [good]
285- Imat defends sammich [seems a bit off...]
286-290- questions for sammich pile up
300- Ripley begins to suspect jerub, defends Near [good post]
309- Imat takes on Ripley, attacks Near [also good]
313- Lowell says he no longer suspects Y
318- Ripley responds to Imat's 309
320- XRey sort of agrees with Imat about the oddness of Near's townlist, pressures Lowell to talk more
323- Lowell returns, calls Xrey, Sammich, and MP innocent; votes gorkat for buddying up to sammich [good, natch]
324- gorkat points out that he's now voting sammich
328- Near again returns to sammich case, hints at strange role for sammich (scum-guardian?)
329- Incog begins to drink the Near kool-aid, wants to quesiton sammich upon his return
330-332- Near's case against sammich continues
335- Ripley adds to sammich case [looking better, actually]
337- Near thinks sammich is a jester, unvotes [what??]
340- Imat thinks Near has lost it, votes Near [good]
350s- Everyone disagrees w/ "jester" idea
366- Mizzy replaces MP, complains about her predecessor
367- jerub votes Near, suggests Near/sammich team [not smart]
373- Ripley comes to Near's defense, calls him town whipping boy [exactly right]
375- gorckat votes Near for quick change of mind on sammich, puts him at L-1 [again, not smart]
381- Mizzy unvotes Near
385- gorckat FOSs Lowell for being non-commital
393- Near declares sammich and Y his leading suspects [good post]
398- Xrey unvotes sammich

Thoughts upcoming...

[Lowell]

A few things:

I believe

Mizzy, Near, XreyoX

, and

Jerub

to all be pro-town.

Mizzy

because I believe the authenticity of MP's blunder at the beginning. I may be a sucker for WIFOM, but I do NOT see MP's team killing the vig, then him jumping in and acting confused and voting the vig as likely. And as far as I know, that's the extent of the case against him, so that to me is nothing.

Near

I've had a change of heart about. Ripley's post where he calls Near a "whipping boy" is exactly right. He's being blamed for a lot of stuff in this game. I still believe the dice-roll issue is not a huge one, but I buy his interest in it as genuine. And it is a bit alarming just how QUICKLY votes started to pile up on him when he broached the idea of sammich as jester. While I disagree w/ both the dice-roll-as-important logic as well as the sammich-as-jester theory, I can't fathom a situation when one scum would so openly reverse his case on another scum close to deadline on D1. And if sammich is town and Near is scum, the scenario makes even less sense.

Xrey

I just get straight townie tells from. No other reason. He pushes the conversation, varies his attacks, and just looks town to me.

jerub

I feel is town largely for his behavior early in the game. He hasn't overly impressed me of late, but through page 9 I was

convinced

he was town and I haven't had any compelling reason to change that.

Some suspects:

Ripley

. I wince a little as I realize the case against him is really going to come down to "being too smart." But he seems to have a knack of being in the right place at the right time, saying the right thing. No vote or FOS here, but I don't quite feel great about him yet.

Imat

. Posts 285 and 340 seem off, for different reasons. I can very much envision the sammich as town, Imat as scum relationship between the two, based on how he has defended sammich during his many troubles. His post 340 seems fine in isolation, but strikes me as not to be taken on its surface (he had previously suspected Near for other reasons). I do, however, like his early behavior, particularly towards MP.

Y

. Again, a change of heart. He's flying above the surface. The higher above the surface he flies, the less we hear of him.

Sammich

. I'm beginning to be sold on the sammich argument, after complaining about it for so long. What is he avoiding? He's not a jester, he's not a scum-protector, I think he's just evasive. Some of his posts even strike me as if he's playing BEYOND the endgame. So that when he dies, he'll say "you guys are so stupid, you lynched me for the wrong reasons" even though he's scum. Still, I'm not totally sold on this case.

The others I haven't put into place yet. I'll try to put that together when I can.

For now,

unvote, vote Imat

[Lowell]

Imat, I still don't buy the Near case nor those who are supporters of it. Vote stands.

[Lowell]

Also I'm relatively sure I did this already, but:

unvote, vote Imat

Yeah, missed it. Fixed. - Mod

[Lowell]

unvote, vote Niv

. I'm willing to build on this bandwagon, and I too think his quitting under pressure is major scum-tell. Usually townies don't quit under pressure, if for no other reason so they can post a posthumus "Bah, I told you!" post.

[Lowell]

It is very interesting that once some one noticed there's no pressure on Niv, his wagon started to grow. It seems like people don't want to look illogical.
What bugs me even more is that Sammich was obviously a bad player. The kind of player which gets himself killed due to bad play. Now that Niv's here, we should try and see what he has to say. Trying to shut up a player before he can get himself out of the hole his bad predecessor left him, is scummy.

I think that any one willing to lynch Niv before hearing his thoughts is anti-town.

FoS jerubbaal and Lowell

for that. The third player voting Niv is Near, which I see as the best lynch at the moment.

Wow this is the lamest, most opportunistic response ever. Was I not the 4th vote? Your need to defend Niv is noted.

[Lowell]

OK, first of all, Your not getting as detaed responce as I'd hoped. I had this massive post cometing on the entire game, and then, I closed IE insed of hittng the Maximize button, i hit the X, and I'm not rewriting that again.

unvote, vote Niv

. I'm willing to build on this bandwagon, and I too think his quitting under pressure is major scum-tell. Usually townies don't quit under pressure, if for no other reason so they can post a posthumus "Bah, I told you!" post.

Alos, I'm Not "quitin". I'm not Samich. I am not going to tr and justify what he has done this gaem . i will admit his play was less tan stellar, and ther is no jutifying that. wat I will do i say what i think .

irst: mafia plaers posts were painful to read. and I am so d he is no longer in the game.

Also, My main suspussion in this gmae is most definatally Near. all gmae you hve talked in circles, focuseced on the irlivant, and overall hepled very little while postin quite allot. oveall I glean verry lttle from your posts and firmly belive you to be scum.

Vote Near

Niv, to clarify. I do not think that YOU are quitting. In fact I give you credit for taking over in a tough spot. HOWEVER, you're still the same role as sammich, who DID quit, which is part of what I'm basing my vote on.

[Lowell]

Still here. Will post more when I get a chance. RL sneaking up on me.

[Lowell]

I'm still very much opposed to a Near lynch. Though in other news, I'm about to grow verrry suspicious of those still not voting. The fact that there are so many makes me think we may have it narrowed down to a scum and a non-scum and some teammates are waiting to see what happens.

[Lowell]

Upon a quick reread, Lowell, I believe you missed a question of mine:

Can you elaborate on why Niv is more deserving of your vote than Imat at this point?

Mizzy, I know you're pregnant and due soon, but do you think you'll have a game summary for us sometime soon? Deadline's on the 11th, and I'd like to wrap up my final thoughts after receiving some input from you.

They're both votable. But the Imat wagon doesn't seem to be taking off at the moment.

[Lowell]

They're both votable. But the Imat wagon doesn't seem to be taking off at the moment.

"I don't care who I'm killing, but Near seems easier".

Well, I think you mean Niv, not Near, but yes, I get the joke.

So, you're saying no one should vote for anyone other than their first choice... ever? I think I explained my reasoning pretty clearly.

[Lowell]

Actually, Lowell, you didn't. You say myself and Niv are "Totally votable," yet you can't or at least have failed to mention why that is. I've seen very little in the way of Content from you. You come out with a mystical pairing read right off the bat and now you point at two other people with the same lack of evidence you've shown in the past. So why do you expect there to be an Imat wagon at all? If you have some strong evidence that can point to Any of your top suspects, we'd love to hear it. So far we've seen much of nothing, and that is not Hunting, thats throwing your vote around.

So, in case you've missed it every time, do you have any kind of evidence to back up Any of your suspicions? Any at all? If not, why do you keep accusing people?

I don't "expect" there to be any wagon. I explained why I think you're scum and why I think Niv is scum. Why do I care if people agree with one and not the other? If all you're saying is "your reasons aren't that good and I dont' agree with them" then, uh, don't vote for yourself, I guess.

[Lowell]

>>>Imat. Posts 285 and 340 seem off, for different reasons. I can very much envision the sammich as town, Imat as scum relationship between the two, based on how he has defended sammich during his many troubles. His post 340 seems fine in isolation, but strikes me as not to be taken on its surface (he had previously suspected Near for other reasons). I do, however, like his early behavior, particularly towards MP. <<<

That's what I wrote, regarding you. So that's my reason. Again, if your point is "your reason isn't very good", then fine.

[Lowell]

Wont' be able to post for a couple days. Don't replace me~!

[Lowell]

I actually get results "unloaded" and "loaded". It's just that "unloaded" means no gun. Maybe I should have said that as a gunsmith, I get to check out if someone has a gun instead.

This mistake (The one it refers to). Claiming to have a result, and when some one points out it should be different, Near suddenly changes his version. I believe he read it on the wiki or something and didn't really understood what it means.

No, this doesn't make sense. If he was going to use the wiki to pick a role, he'd have done it right the first time. Based on what we've seen, mod is eager to put some flavor into things.

[Lowell]

unvote, vote Y

.

Let's see where this goes. I'm very happy with a Niv lynch as well, and would vote for either at deadline. But I want to give folks (those who believe the Near claim) two options. It tends to be more useful long-term.

[Lowell]

I'm not okay with a Niv or Near lynch, sorry folks. I know it puts things at a standstill, but it might give us more information because it means for a lynch, someone will have to unvote and switch wagons.

The top 2 people I would vote for are Ooba and Y, in that order (ooba for his opportunistic vote and lack of decent response to my reasoning why his and his predecessor's vote was stupid and Y because I don't like how sure he is about Near at this time and how adamant he is for a lynch of a power-claimed player.)

However, since ooba replaced someone who Near claims is "unloaded" and I believe Near's claim, I can't very well vote for him until we know for sure about Near. Either he's confirmed town or not depending.

Vote: Y

You would vote for ooba despite believing Near's claim, which says ooba is innocent?

[Lowell]

Yeah Y makes absolutely no sense.

[Lowell]

Agreed. Reveal, Near. Then let that person claim Miller. Then let us lynch them.

[Lowell]

Dumbest. Plan. Ever.

[Lowell]

I hate myself for this, but I still won't lynch Near.

I'll throw a

vote mizzy

out there for her seemingly over-the-top reactions to Near's ridiculousness.

[Lowell]

I hate myself for this, but I still won't lynch Near.

I'll throw a

vote mizzy

out there for her seemingly over-the-top reactions to Near's ridiculousness.

That's kind of stupid, considering that if I was scum, I could have hammered the claimed cop yesterday.

And probably have been lynched for it today. So, not really thinking that was likely.

[Lowell]

My style is to make less frequent, longer posts, combined with more frequent, more useless posts.

Although you're right that I've been lurking a bit. I can give you more if you ask nicely.

[Lowell]

Fair enough. Give me some time.

[Lowell]

Sorry, still here. Will post, I promise.

[Lowell]

From page 21:

504- Near leads w/ 4 votes (Y, Imat, gorckat, Niv), 3 for Niv (Near, jerub, Lowell)
507- Ripley says he'll vote for Niv
509- Y wonders why Lowell isn't voting Imat, who he suspects [odd]
511- Imat demands case from Lowell as to why he's a suspect
512- Ripley votes Niv (4th vote)
520- ooba votes Niv (5th vote)
521- jerubbaal says Mizzy is innocent for being MP [?]
522- Mizzy speaks, declares dice-gate meaningless, says we should look at XRey for accusing Sammich
531- Mizzy reiterates why she won't vote for Niv
533- Incog accuses Lowell, votes Near (fifth vote)
534-

Near claims gunsmith

, says xrey has no gun
537- Incog unvotes
541- Mizzy wants neither Near nor Niv lynched
546- Y doesn't believe claim, confirms vote on Near
551- Near further explains [very believable]
553- gorckat expresses skepticism
554- jerub believes claim
555- Lowell believes claim
557- ooba believes claim, says he already thought Near was town [?]
560- jerub puts Y at the top of his scum list
563- Lowell votes Y
576- good post by jerub, supporting claim
587- Incog votes Niv (5th vote)
588- Mizzy still doesn't want Near or Niv dead, votes Y
601- gorckat votes Y (3rd vote)
628- Mizzy votes Niv at deadline (lynch vote)
629- gorckat votes Niv (overkill vote)
634-

Niv innocent, jerubbaal killed

635- Near's "gambit"
646- Near declares Y gunless
650- Y still says Near is scum
651- gorckat now agrees, votes Near
652- Mizzy thinks Near is not scum
667- Lowell votes mizzy
673- Incog votes Lowell for lurking in plain sight
694- Y votes Lowell

For my notes.... will post again.

[Lowell]

Y- The notes are more for my benefit than yours. Though you seem to have found some things to comment on, so clearly it has some use.

1)

vote incognito

. 533 and 537 look bad to me. He accuses me, but votes Near. Then he promptly unvotes after the claim. Both look like he's trying to play it safe.

2) I still beleive Near's claim.

3)

FOS gorckat

. He's a follower. Post 553 mimic's Y's opinion, then 651 jumps on a bandwagon.

4) Upon reread,

jerubbaal

looks very pro-town to me. I liked 576, and he seems to have a sensible outlook on what is happening.

[Lowell]

Yes, Jerub looks very Pro-Town to us as well...That may or may not be because he's dead...

HA. Sorry.

[Lowell]

Yo, mod, I posted my last while eating a bag of doritos. ONE-HANDED!

No props for me?

Posting while eating a

bag

is impressive, regardless of what's inside, or the number of hands involved. I assume the doritos made it easier on the palate, though. -Mod (giggling)

[Lowell]

If Near isn't the real investigator, he'll have trouble explaining himself when the real one dies. So I'm not sure why we shouldn't believe his claim at this point.

[Lowell]

I'm away until Friday. I may have internet, but I may not. Just warning you.

[Lowell]

So, mizzy, what's your take on the Near claim, then?

[Lowell]

Mizzy, I think lynching Y is an awful idea.

If Near is lying, and you think so, you should vote him. I find it unlikely that Near (a) fake-claimed, and (b) brought a scumbuddy with him in the plan (I, for one, would pixelate myself, travel through the computer wires, and appear in my scumbuddy's house to punch him in the face if he were to do that to me).

So, even if Near IS lying, I have absolutely no doubt that the person he "cleared" IS actually innocent. If Near is lying, KILL NEAR, not Y.

The ONLY scenario I can see is if Y is a godfather (unlikely, given the flavor of the game thusfar) or if Near is naive, or insane, or something (also unlikely in a mini). Not impossible, I guess, but is that really the best you can come up with?

[Lowell]

unvote, vote gorkat

. No smoking gun here, but the nature of his posting seems to be strange.

[Lowell]

The reason you sum up for gorckat is pretty much mine. He just seems to be in the thick of things... but not really.

[Lowell]

Lowell/Incognito scum pairing - discuss.

Will post my case in the evening..

Hmm, if I had to guess, I'd say.... unlikely.

[Lowell]

So... I'm getting blamed for a mediocre playstyle used against me?

[Lowell]

Lowell, whatever happened to your Day 1 Imat suspicions? Did they just evaporate?

Nah I've always liked Imat as scum. If I recall I brought it up and was shot down repeatedly.

If your question is: would I vote to lynch him? then the answer is yes.

[Lowell]

788 is a good enough reason for me to switch to Imat again (plus, I, you know, remembered he was in the game).

unvote, vote Imat

At this point I've narrowed down my search, albeit not dramatically.

I will NOT vote for any of the following:
Near- believe claim
Y- believe Near's claim
Ripley- more assertive of late, and searching other directions than the foolish but pervasive Lowell bandwagon.
Mizzy- still foolishly think MP was town

Gorckat, Incog, and ooba, consider yourselves warned.

[Lowell]

Mod

I'm heading out of town for 3 days, won't be back online until Wednesday. Just letting you know.

[Lowell]

I'm back from a brief vacation. I'll read through and try to comment tomorrow.

[Lowell]

1) I am a townsperson
2) gorckat is very definately scum
3) Mizzy's plan of killing Near's "innocents" as a way of testing him is terrible
4) Right off the bat jerub is steering conversation away from anyone but me. Also, the "two of my scummiest... are the uncounterclaimed cop and his innocent" reeks of scum hamming it up

FOS Imat

[Lowell]

I guess that was partially my fault. I'll be more active next time, I sort of lost track of what was happening.

No hard feelings. Good luck all.