Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[LaptopGun]

Umm, yeah Oman. Your right. That possibility completely slipped my mind so I guess that needs to be edited in. I never thought of it because I am not the SK, and I dont think Jess Gunn is either. Sorry I keep calling her a man as well.

I have to agree with Rigel for one very key reason: I completely forgot Melody Man was part of this game and who he replaced was. I knew nothing about him so I re-read, but I still dont know much. I will caution that it is by no means a smoking gun, but I think MM owes us an explanation.

I did a review on who Justin put heat on. This is not an exhaustive list, and it's brief cuz I need to get back to a term paper. Please see for yourselves and tell me where my interprtation is weak or wrong, because this was done on the quick.

SSF (random vote), MadCrawdad for that name fiasco, Wesaq for more naming hyjinx, Spacecase in an apparent hypocracy with the CDK night kill, Peers for a ton of issues Justin saw in 2 posts, Six Aces (who got lynched as Mafia), <night> phate for apparent role fishing and bad numbers, Kab (ended up getting lynched) , farside for far too quick answers and really begging for more role claims, me for considering him the boogie man, and Shteven for thinking he was scum.

Three things jump out at me:
1. He really didnt like people asking about power roles. Har-har. But seriously, whenever he felt someone was speculating far too much or potentially role fishing, he called them on it. You could have your the mafia's reason for killing right here.
2. He did not like people calling him scum. Hmmm, I wonder why? Stupid me. Shteven is also in this catagory and had similar, if less grandiose than me, concerns .
3. Kab, Phate, and Farside where the people he questioned after the night. Potentially he night investigated one of the three. Since he stuck on Kab and he's been a confirmed townie (if a dead one), I don't think he investigated him. Mind you, I don't even know if immediately questioned has any correlation to night investigation.

[Oman]

Hmm, good point. I'd be willing to assume he investigated one of phate and farside guilty.

It worth lynching them both (/viging one) of course, pre-set lynches can always be changed ad hoc.

[Jesse Gunn]

I just have to say...

I'm a dude.

That is all.

[Oman]

Oops, I thought it was Jessie not Jesse.

We have a dog at work called Jessie, male, everyone thinks female.

[LaptopGun]

Ooops, sorry again Jesse. I'm just completely discombobulated.

[vollkan]

I don't think that a lynch is justified based on the fact Justin questioned people. First off, I ask myself "Wouldn't Justin have claimed asap if he had a guilty?" If I suspend judgment and say "Maybe not." then I encounter serious doubts about the reliability of his questioning as a scumtell for his questionees. For those that have not player with Justin before, he's as pedantic as I am about reasoning etc. and he questions very readily.

[Oman]

First off, I ask myself "Wouldn't Justin have claimed asap if he had a guilty?"

NO! There was already a claimed cop and no guarentee of a doc. Why would ANOTHER cop claim be benefical when then likely 1 or no docs would have to protect them BOTH.

Jesus Vollkan, you're smarter than that.

[vollkan]

First off, I ask myself "Wouldn't Justin have claimed asap if he had a guilty?"

NO! There was already a claimed cop and no guarentee of a doc. Why would ANOTHER cop claim be benefical when then likely 1 or no docs would have to protect them BOTH.

Jesus Vollkan, you're smarter than that.

That's what I was thinking in response myself, but I wasn't too sure of how correct that argument was. So, I "suspended judgment". The crux of my point was the latter part anyway - that, having played with Justin before, him questioning people doesn't suggest much to me.

[Oman]

It does that he focused on three people like that.

[vollkan]

It does that he focused on three people like that.

But so far as I can see, he doesn't.

Just doing a cursory read: He questions wesaq, spacecase and Peers early on. Then he questions Jesse. Then later he questions Farside, kab, LTG and Shteven. Of course, kab, phate and farside are the first come the new day (in that order)

[Oman]

Hmm, okay...

It really gets to me when I'm a cop though and I say "ITS OBVIOUS WHO I INVESTIGATED" in my dead thoughts.

We need to find it.

[somestrangeflea]

That possibility completely slipped my mind so I guess that needs to be edited in. I never thought of it because I am not the SK, and

I dont think Jess Gunn is either

.

Jesse Gunn being an SK would allow him to use whatever tactics he wanted, fakeclaiming Cop or otherwise. The only problem with this is that there would be no way for him to know who was scum and who wasn't, unless he was just really lucky.

Jesse being SK means he'd've had to guess that Six Aces was scum. There's a 1 in 6 (lolirony) chance of that happening, and therefore a 1 in 6 chance Jesse Gunn is the SK. STATISTICAL FACT.

I'm starting to doubt our previous cop's truthery.

If Cops were assigned dependently, that is, 33% of 0 Cops, 33% of 1 Cop and 33% of 2 Cops, then the chance of there being 2 Cops given the existence of at least 1 is the same as the chance of there being only 1 (50%). 50% is more than 33%.

On the other hand, if Cops were assigned using the "Two coinflips" method, then odds are 25% of 0 Cops, 50% of 1 Cop and 25% of 2 Cops, then the confirmation of there being at least one cop means that there is a 66% chance of there being 1 Cop and a 33% chance of there being 2. 33% is more than 25%.

The confirmed existence of one Cop makes it statistically more likely (depending on the method used, either 1/6 or 1/12), that there is a second.

Now, considering that the existence of a second Cop is now more likely than it was yesterday, that a counter-claim will basically wipe Jesse's credibility as a Cop off the board, and that claiming Cop with a guilty on a buddy D1 in an Open is quite possibly the most suicidal scum gambit ever, how exactly does this make you doubtful?

[farside22]

Hmm, good point. I'd be willing to assume he investigated one of phate and farside guilty.

It worth lynching them both (/viging one) of course, pre-set lynches can always be changed ad hoc.

Why would you assume that when he didn't vote for either one of us. He could have steered the conversation towards that person as he did to Kab. He knew how to speak his mind clearly.

[Shteven]

While there is good reason for Justin to have not come forward even with a guilty result, I'd assume that he was probably getting innocents.

His day 1 discussion was on Wesaq, spacecase, and peers. Random vote on SSF.
His day 2 discussion was on Phate, Kab, and farside22.

I think there's a few too many choices to be certain - although day 2 we know kab was innocent. Still, I don't think he really attacked either of the other two strongly enough to indicate guilt. So I'm not finding too much use in that kind of search.

I do, however, find spacecase's last second reversal for the hammer to be a reliable scumtell. I'd be willing to lynch him on that.

Vote: Spacecase

[Shteven]

P.S. Didn't like the case on melody man day 2, still don't. Seems to basically be "he's lurking". Probably right on that, doesn't sell me as him being scum though.

[farside22]

P.S. Didn't like the case on melody man day 2, still don't. Seems to basically be "he's lurking". Probably right on that, doesn't sell me as him being scum though.

It was also his lack of reasoning when he voted. Lurkers can sometimes be scum (most times). Depends on the person and if they know how to bluff well in these games.

[Oman]

I don't think hammering that last wagon is a huge scumtell, Kab was crying for it, and he would've been deadlined anyway.

[Shteven]

It's not only that he hammered, but also the way he did it. Right up until he changed his mind, he was against the lynch. Quick reversals at the 11th hour for the hammer is a reliable scum tell. Maybe not 100%, but reliable.

[vollkan]

I'm pretty sure that the claim i made answers your question. It seemed scummy to me that he would say that it was an honorable way to sacrificing himself to the town.

And acting honourably is a scumtell now? That's news to me. I suppose you meta'd him and checked whether or not this is something kab does.

SpaceCase is yet to answer this question of mine.

The important thing here is that the reason he finds for hammering is something very dodgy. Yes, he's a newbie, but that makes his apparent confidence on "acting honourably being scummy" all the more interesting to me.

[Shteven]

Becoming a bit disappointed with overall activity levels in this game.

Spacecase is scum, get to it folks.

[Rigel]

In reading over Spacecase's posts, I'm noticing that he hasn't really put forth any sort of analysis of the game to any degree. He posts every couple of days so that he stays active, but he really doesn't say anything when he does so. In fact, the majority of his posts are either questions that don't help us or statements that don't help us. Not to mention the matter of his opinion-shift on Day 2, right before the Kabenon lynch. His only votes all game have been on Wesaq (MelodyMan23) and Kabenon, and we all saw how the Kabenon lynch went.

I feel that, even if Spacecase is pro-town, he needs to put forth what he thinks about the game, not just responding to what people ask him. He needs to be active, not passive in his play. So

FOS:Spacecase

for the time being--but remember that the only reason it's not a vote is because you've actually bothered to show up on Day 3, unlike MelodyMan23.

Come to think of it, Phate and The Fonz haven't shown up yet today either. Is it too early to ask for a prodding of them? I hate to be pushy, but day has been going on for a few days now.

[vollkan]

Phate hasn't posted since the 20th, and Fonz hasn't since the 21st. A prod is definitely in order.

[The Fonz]

]
Jesse being SK means he'd've had to guess that Six Aces was scum. There's a 1 in 6 (lolirony) chance of that happening, and therefore a 1 in 6 chance Jesse Gunn is the SK. STATISTICAL FACT.

Hmmm. Not quite. That there is a 1/6 chance of something coming off doesn't mean there's a one in 6 chance of an SK actually trying it. If Jesse is SK, he was pulling, whilst not in immediate danger of lynch, a gambit which basically guarantees him not living to endgame. Chance of that is less than one in six.

MoD: Can you confirm the method used to determine how many cops/doctors there are?

I'm unsure on spacecase. In part, because I moved my vote to him for pretty much the same reason, though I hadn't been so vocal in opposing the lynch in the first place. In part, because I really don't see what scum has to gain from abandoning a stand in defence of a town player from which he could possibly gain some townie brownies, at a point when the guy's a nailed-on certainty to be lynched anyway.

[Spacecase]

Listen the lynch was better then no lynch at all. And yes i did change my views 15 posts later. But the person to throw down the hammer is always going to look suspicious.

[Spacecase]

And adding to my point is (correct me if im wrong) that volkan even said he was a decent lynch.