Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[The Fonz]

The point is not that Kab was a bad lynch. The point is, it's hard to see how you could have genuinely believed what you said about it being a bad lynch that hurt the town, and then turn around 15 posts later and hammer the guy. What vollkan said is irrelevent. Vollkan was

never

against the lynch, so doesn't have a hypocrisy case to answer.

[MadCrawdad]

Listen the lynch was better then no lynch at all. And yes i did change my views 15 posts later. But the person to throw down the hammer is always going to look suspicious.

Saying that his lynch was better than no lynch at all, is what Kab said, and apparently the reason that you hammered....yet you agreed with him? Please explain.

And adding to my point is (correct me if im wrong) that volkan even said he was a decent lynch.

Are you now saying that you followed Vollkan onto Kab?

Again, please explain your thought process regarding your reversal on Kab. It looks like you're claiming to have hammered based on Kab's argument that his lynch was better than none.

What did you really think about Kab? You've take several positions: first he's innocent, shortly thereafter he's scum, and now you hammered because Kab's lynch was better than none at all. Please clarify your position.

[Phate]

I don't think randomly lynching among people the cop talked about is a good idea, Oman.

[vollkan]

Listen the lynch was better then no lynch at all. And yes i did change my views 15 posts later.

Your views did a complete 180, and you made no mention of wanting to avert a No Lynch (not that that is necessarily a justification anyway). The fact that no lynch is usually better than lynch does not mean that you can backflip and jump on the largest wagon and then find yourself being held culpable unreasonable.

But the person to throw down the hammer is always going to look suspicious.

No. Each wagonee is as responsible for their vote as the hammerer. The way I see it, every time a person makes a post, if they keep their vote where it is they are reaffirming it. The mere act of hammering has no special significance - unless the vote is done too quickly, in which case it has the unique effect of severing discussion. But, aside from that, a crap hammer vote is as blameworthy as a crap first vote.

And adding to my point is (correct me if im wrong) that volkan even said he was a decent lynch.

As Fonz has already pointed out, I never said it was a bad lynch. I fail to see how my thoughts on this are relevant at all to your actions.

[-TinVision-]

First Vote Count of the Day

Shteven - 1 (Oman)
MelodyMan23 - 1 (Rigel)
Spacecase - 1 (Shteven)

Not voting - 10 (

Jesse Gunn, LaptopGun, Spacecase, The Fonz, somestrangeflea, vollkan, MadCrawdad, Phate, MelodyMan23, farside22

)


Note: I am seeking replacement for MelodyMan23.

MoD: Can you confirm the method used to determine how many cops/doctors there are?

For each role listed as variable in number, random.org generated a random number from the lower bound to the upper bound. The "two coinflips" method was not used.

[LaptopGun]

Ok I'll bite. Spacecase is acting bizareluy and I don't like it; however, Volkan and Oman are making me nervous with this tunnelvision on Spacecase. Not necessarily scummy, but isn't that how Kab got lynched?

[vollkan]

Ok I'll bite. Spacecase is acting bizareluy and I don't like it; however, Volkan and Oman are making me nervous with this tunnelvision on Spacecase. Not necessarily scummy, but isn't that how Kab got lynched?

I'm wary of a repeat of yesterday, but spacecase is acting oddly (as you say) and I am going to question that as much as is necessary.

[Oman]

If Cops were assigned dependently, that is, 33% of 0 Cops, 33% of 1 Cop and 33% of 2 Cops, then the chance of there being 2 Cops given the existence of at least 1 is the same as the chance of there being only 1 (50%). 50% is more than 33%.

I assumed the "two Coinflips"

Mod:

Were the role assigned by two seperate flips, or a single 3-outcome flip?

how exactly does this make you doubtful?

I didn't think of it that way, I saw it as two coinflips, in which a second cop is not influenced by the existance of the first cop. (i.e. 1/2 cop 1, 1/2 cop 2. Therefore 1/4 both cops. 1/2 one cop. 1/4 no cops) In which the existance of one cop decreses the chance of there being two cops (sort of).

Why would you assume that when he didn't vote for either one of us.

I did not consider this. /Retract.

It's not only that he hammered, but also the way he did it.

Ah, it just seems like a lot of effort for scum to actually JUMP on a wagon that is already going to deadline lynch. I see what you mean though, its quite a jump.

The important thing here is that the reason he finds for hammering is something very dodgy.

THIS is a good point, he searched for a reason, the guilty mind.

And adding to my point is (correct me if im wrong) that volkan even said he was a decent lynch

Now, to me, this just looks newbie. Like he was following the crowd more.

I don't think randomly lynching among people the cop talked about is a good idea, Oman.

His day 2 discussion was on

Phate

[/b], Kab, and farside22.

I'm shocked you take that position.

I fail to see how my thoughts on this are relevant at all to your actions.

Damn I hate to talk before the person has answered. but this actually references a previous point. I think its newbie.


That defence being said: The hammer is damn interesting. I'm going to review this "180".

[LaptopGun]

This sort of goes along with my last post. I believe Oman is town because he is trying to work out all of these statistical probability. I do not believe the mafia would "waste" as much space going into them. I find it interesting, but I have never been interested in math and statistics so I'm reallly just going on the conclusions . On a hypothetical level, it could be scummy if Oman is trying to confirm Jess as a cop in order to night lynch him. That would mean Jess is mafia, though (could be SK as pointed out before). Or Oman and Jess are both scum partners and trying to put up a facade of scrutiny. This again seems dangerous of getting one or both caught. I dont find it likely even if I dont have fancy statistics to back me up .

All right, unless I see something something scummy subsequen to this, Oman looks like town.

[-TinVision-]

Mod:

Were the role assigned by two seperate flips, or a single 3-outcome flip?

For each role listed as variable in number, random.org generated a random number from the lower bound to the upper bound. The "two coinflips" method was not used.

[vollkan]

Damn I hate to talk before the person has answered. but this actually references a previous point. I think its newbie.

What reference are you referring to?

[Oman]

And adding to my point is (correct me if im wrong) that volkan even said he was a decent lynch

Now, to me, this just looks newbie. Like he was following the crowd more.

[LaptopGun]

Wow, I had a brain cramp. The sentence "That would mean Jess is mafia, though (could be SK as pointed out before). " should read "That would mean

Oman

is mafia, though (could be SK as pointed out before)."

On a purely speculative note, I would find it hilarious if Jess was not a cop but a vanilla townie and just guessed right Six Aces was scum. That is what we call suicidal behavior for the town, as he could just be relying on guesses. Odds of this happening: not bloody likely (thank God).

[The Fonz]

This sort of goes along with my last post. I believe Oman is town because he is trying to work out all of these statistical probability. I do not believe the mafia would "waste" as much space going into them.

I have to disagree with every sinew in my body here. It is

entirely

in character for scum to talk about game theory and statistical probability, because it will certainly be seen as contributing, but it doesn't really help find scum.

On the Jesse thing: Since we know there are not 'no' cops, one or two is equally likely by either system. It's nice to have the clarification, but it doesn't change one bit the fact that Jesse being a genuine cop is overwhelmingly the most likely scenario, and talking about it strikes me as a great way to distract the town.

I find it interesting, but I have never been interested in math and statistics so I'm reallly just going on the conclusions . On a hypothetical level, it could be scummy if Oman is trying to confirm Jess as a cop in order to night lynch him. That would mean Jess is mafia, though (could be SK as pointed out before).

What the hell is a night lynch? And why would Oman need to 'confirm' him to do it?

[Shteven]

Fonz beat me to it, but yes, talking about statistics doesn't really indicate your alignment - just that you like/think in mathematical terms. I do it myself sometimes.

As for Jesse, he's getting far too many comments today. He's a cop because he pointed at a scum for us to kill. The possibility of him bussing is relatively low. Whatever that chance is, it hasn't changed at all by Justin's death. Call me when we have two dead cops and one of them isn't Jesse, and then I'll be interested. Jesse is town. I'd be willing to bet a small amount that the lack of a second night kill is because one scum group thought Jesse might not get protection, but he actually did. Speculation, but hey.

As for spacecase, I'm still pretty certain he's scum. I just saw the same exact thing happen in newbie 539 with the day one lynch. However, it is true that the lynch there wasn't as certain. There were two wagons of three, with four needed. Scum hopped off wagon A and put the fourth on wagon B. After spending most of day one pushing for wagon A, he immediately dropped when given a chance to hammer. So the 180 part holds, although there is some merit to people saying there wasn't any serious chance of the lynch not being kab. That said, we do need to take a look at other people, and discuss everyone, but I expect I'll be voting spacecase all day unless something very significant comes up.

[The Fonz]

Those do strike me as hugely different situations, Shteven. Spending all day pushing one lynch in direct opposition to another, then switching to hammer the one

I'm struggling to see a reason why town spacecase would do that, certainly. But then, I can't exactly see it being a rational scumplay either. So it's likely an irrational move either way. I'm trying to get my head around potential motivations.

[The Fonz]

*then switching to hammer the one you hadn't pushed whilst the one you'd spoken in favour of is still very much viable.

[LaptopGun]

1. Fair enough. I gave a reason why I think it's fine. You disagree. Why dont you take the next step and talk with Oman about it. I said what I had to say and I admited I'm lazy when it comes to statistics. If Oman were to do something crazy, I'd by all means mention it.
2. I should have said night kill instead. Sorry I was just completely stupid when typing.
3. If Oman is scum, wouldn't he want to confirm Jess is the cop so he is worth trying to night kill him? If he's not, the scum would want to know if there is another resason worth lynching him for (ie serial killer).

[The Fonz]

Well, scum know whether Jesse is one of them. If he's not mafia, the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of him being genuine. If anything, mafia would want to cast doubt on the claim to reduce the likelihood of protection.

[LaptopGun]

ABWOP the other guys posted when I was trying to post. Fine, you want to go elsewhere. So you want to start a spacecase wagon? I've tried to talk about other people, but I keep comming back to it because nobody else is really striking.

So who are other good suspects. I say Spacecase and the people Justin in thoery could have investigated, but lets here what you guys have to say.

[The Fonz]

Oh, also, Why would I talk to Oman about it? I don't think it's necessarily a scumtell. My point is that it is not a good move, if town, to assume Oman is town just because he bandies some figures around.

[LaptopGun]

ABWOP
Good thinking Fonz. I'm gonna stop this cop discussion unless someone else really wants to pursue this.

[Oman]

If Oman is scum, wouldn't he want to confirm Jess is the cop so he is worth trying to night kill him?

If I was scum, I would NOT want Jesse confirmed because once he IS confirmed, thats it, doc protect forward!

[farside22]

Those do strike me as hugely different situations, Shteven. Spending all day pushing one lynch in direct opposition to another, then switching to hammer the one

I'm struggling to see a reason why town spacecase would do that, certainly. But then, I can't exactly see it being a rational scumplay either. So it's likely an irrational move either way. I'm trying to get my head around potential motivations.

Scum can be stupid and the switch that spacecase did was really questionable. No answer thus far has been satisfactory.

Vote: Spacecase

[Shteven]

If Oman is scum, wouldn't he want to confirm Jess is the cop so he is worth trying to night kill him?

If I was scum, I would NOT want Jesse confirmed because once he IS confirmed, thats it, doc protect forward!

Unless someone else claims a power role of extreme importance (the vig may quality, but personally I'd consider the cop more important) Jesse should already be getting doctor protection going forward. There isn't a good reason to take it off; you're leaving him exposed if so. Any and all (since we can't prove we have 2) doctor(s) should protect Jesse.

One could read Oman's statement as saying Jesse isn't worth doctor protection now, leaving him vulnerable. But this is a stretch, I'll admit.