Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[Mastermind of Sin]

Well that sucks.

[Beep! Beep!]

I didn't get anything either.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Psst: lynch MoS.

[Mastermind of Sin]

*sigh*

[somestrangeflea]

Miztef blocked Cephrir.

Cephrir investigated Miztef.

MoS protected Miztef.
Scums killed Mizzy.

Today's massclaim stats:

Without massclaim:
3/10 (30%)
With massclaim:
3/6 (50%) & 0/4 (0%)
2/5 (40%) & 1/5 (20%)
1/4 (25%) & 2/6 (~33%)
0/3 (0%) & 3/7 (~43%)

Compared to yesterday's numbers:

Without massclaim:
3/12 (25%)
With massclaim:
3/6 (50%) & 0/6 (0%)
2/5 (40%) & 1/7 (~14%)
1/4 (25%) & 2/8 (25%)
0/3 (0%) & 3/9 (~33%)

Simply due to their being less people alive, the groups have become smaller, and thus massclaiming becomes more viable. The worst case scenario when massclaiming (the second) is 10% easier one direction, and 10% harder the other than not massclaiming. Thus, massclaiming now will likely cause a game situation, which is, in terms of expected return for the town, exactly the same, but more swingy.

I personally like stability, so, currently, I don't want a massclaim, but wanted to throw the idea back out there, since it's no longer a completely bad thing.

[Beep! Beep!]

Is there some kind of "in-joke" with Mastermind and Cogito? I don't get it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No.

I want him dead. He doesn't.

That is all.

[Mastermind of Sin]

CES, do you even have a logical reason to think I'm scum? I'd really like to hear it.

[Elmo]

The vast swathe of people clamouring to end the day yesterday now need to impress me with, well, something.

Yes, I'm being lazy for a bit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Reading my posts helps, MoS:

You see, when I first read about the mass claim, I thought: "Heck no, that's a terrible idea. A 4-8 split in claims would leave the triumvirate completely open to nightkills without giving us any info." So, when I saw MoS' post, I assumed it would shoot down the silly plan. Then I read it. But okay, people make mistakes, MoS' experience doesn't make him immune to terrible ideas. Occam's Razor told me he'd come to in a few posts and explain to the town why this was a bad idea. But he didn't. He actually pushed it. I find this unbelievable coming from a player of such experience, so I must conclude he can not be playing for the town's side.

[Beep! Beep!]

That's a good enough reason to warrant a vote.

vote: MoS

[Miztef]

After thinking it through, I must agree with CES's reasoning. Here's why:

1. MoS is Town - if this is true, he would have thought threw the plan and realized it's mistakes, considering his meticulous attention to details (as I've seen in other games with him) and knowledge of the game. Only if he was being extra lazy at that time could MoS being Town be plausible.

2. MoS is Trium - ok, there is a bit of an argument to be made here. I myself was quite excited to push for massclaim as well, clouded by my wish to reveal my role. I don't have the experience that MoS has though.

3. MoS is Scum - then the action of pushing massclaim makes sense. He knows it hurts the town, and, looking back at which players were playing at that time, there are very little threating players in this game (even now), MoS probably guessed he could get away with a bit more then usual.

On top of this, He probably did get the doctor role, and did not protect the kill that happened tonight. Of course, it is more likely to fail then succeed in the first place, but with MoS's skill, it is plausible that he could have protected the correct player. I think he would have at least protected someone other then myself, as it was likely the scum would avoid me N1 due to probable doc protection.

For all these reasons, I find it highly likely MoS is scum.

[Miztef]

woops,

vote: MoS

, forgot to put that in there.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Except that I didn't push mass claim. Did any of you actually read my posts regarding it? I agreed with it because I thought the numbers worked out. I didn't spend any time arguing for it, and I went against it when I saw a reason for it to be a bad idea.

I'm for a mass claim. I think it would tip things in the town's favor a lot, because it makes the scum commit to claims. If we don't mass claim now, it gives the scum a night to discuss claiming strategies. If we mass claim today, we catch them flat-footed.

So how many people have yet to agree with mass claim?

I'm ethically against an organized cipher claim. I think it goes against the spirit of the game, mostly. I don't really have a problem with the occasional single person that does it, but an organized cipher mass claim is just an attempt to break not the

setup

, but the entire

game

of mafia.

I have actually just come across the idea recently in another game, and it was seen as unethical there as well.

However, I don't understand how this is so in this situation. Should we not be allowed to all claim at the same time? Must claims be said in a particular order? If that is the rule of the game, then so be it.

Even with the mafia getting to choose how they are each going to claim, I still believe one of the greatest advantages of doing such a plan is having no careless risk of hitting triumvirate. If we so choose, we can go after townies as long as 1 mafia claimed townie and keep the triums alive. That way, the power roles, at worst, would be eliminated in 3 days, and, if that's the case, the mafia who claimed trium would be found.

AS SSF pointed out, there is nothing wrong with a mass claim. However, the encrypted mass claim is breaking the game, and it's an unethical move if we do it. I would be sad if we were so bad at this game that we had to break it to have a chance at winning.

Elmo is right. I'm glad he brought up these statistics, because I hadn't thought of it. This "we deserve to lose" crap is bullshit. There is never a reason to let pride cloud your judgement from taking the safer path. You should never gamble with the statistics in a situation like this. The best strategy is the one that has the best worst-case scenario. We're not looking for the high-risk, high-return plan. We're looking for the plan that gives us the best chance of not screwing it up, not the plan that gives us a very small chance of completely owning the scum and a very large chance of getting our asses kicked. There is no reason to decrease our chances of winning just because we're too proud to take the safer route. That's retarded.

No Mass Claim from me.

So I didn't spend any time trying to "push" for mass claim. In fact, once I understood why it was a bad idea, I "pushed" for there not to be a mass claim.

Miztef, don't you dare try a proficiency argument with me. I am notoriously bad at planning, even when I *am* paying attention to detail, and I should think that a quick look at the length and quality of most of my posts around that time would show that I wasn't able to spend a lot of time on this game. On top of that, I just recently got lynched as town in a Quack mafia open setup for suggesting 2 outrageously flawed plans. The argument the scum used to get me lynched was that town-MoS would have thought through the plan and realized its flaws. Sound familiar?

[Beep! Beep!]

unvote, vote: CES

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd like to point out that the selected quotes are not *all* of my posts regarding mass claim, but every omitted post came after the ones quoted here, so they're all posts about me arguing against mass claim and trying to lynch people who support mass claim in the face of solid, logical reasoning. You wouldn't be interested in that.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Posts 1 and 2 are the scummy ones. (Post 2 I would describe as pushing.)

Posts 3 and 4 are just you arguing you against a cypher-based claim, which is pretty irrelevant to the actual massclaim situation.

Post 5 is after Elmo demolished the plan.

Link to Quack mafia thing please.

[Miztef]

fine, I agree that you didn't "push" as badly as CES said you did. I was going off memory there, and I remembered your agreement of the massclaim. Sorry.

Well, would you not agree that town players "should" make good plans? If your just throwing around "outrageously flawed" plans in many games, is that town-like behavior. I agree with the argument that it is scum who would benefit from bad plans, and therefore, people who push for/start/agree with bad plans should be scrutinized. I was, heavily actually in this game, and I agree that I deserved it, my defense was/is that I scum would not continuously advocate bad plans, and that I'm triumvirate.

However, even in light of that, your push was quite light, and I really like that 5th post, so I'll move on and

unvote

for now.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Posts 1 and 2 are the scummy ones. (Post 2 I would describe as pushing.)

I believe I asked it because several people had stated their opinion on mass claim earlier in the day, so I just wanted to find out who was still sitting on the fence. Note Elmo's post right after mine:

Me. Still thinking. I'm worried about the apparent lack of actually working it out, although it might be a good idea.

Should I post a full working out so far? It lets the scum know what the best moves are, but it also helps us understand what may be about to happen.

It's also possible the scum have already discussed trying to claim pre-game. If you're paranoid, you might say they're fully worked out it's bad for the town and are trying to get us to do it. So basically I want it to be watertight before we out the power roles.

SSF / MoS: You're smart, how far have you thought this through?

Posts 3 and 4 are just you arguing you against a cypher-based claim, which is pretty irrelevant to the actual massclaim situation.

I agree. I just pointed them out because they were in sequence, and because it shows how little time I actually spent supporting any sort of massclaim.

Post 5 is after Elmo demolished the plan.

And yet people still argued for mass claim at that point and I did not, so obviously it wasn't as clearly demolished as you and I think it was.

Link to Quack mafia thing please.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7066

Well, would you not agree that town players "should" make good plans? If your just throwing around "outrageously flawed" plans in many games, is that town-like behavior. I agree with the argument that it is scum who would benefit from bad plans, and therefore, people who push for/start/agree with bad plans should be scrutinized. I was, heavily actually in this game, and I agree that I deserved it, my defense was/is that I scum would not continuously advocate bad plans, and that I'm triumvirate

Then you know where I'm coming from, Miztef. It's not that I'm advocating bad plans on purpose. I just thought they were good plans at the time. I don't always have time to run all the numbers and looks for flaws, so if the plan looks ok on the surface, I'm at least willing to suggest it.

[Elmo]

Beep, what in post 888 changed your mind enough to do an apparent 180?

I'm still rereading, and I'm probably going to vote for MoS after that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

lol. I'll be interested in hearing your attempt at a case, Elmo

[Rishi]

Beep, what in post 888 changed your mind enough to do an apparent 180?

I was thinking the same thing.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

[Beep! Beep!]

Beep, what in post 888 changed your mind enough to do an apparent 180?

I'm still rereading, and I'm probably going to vote for MoS after that.

This quote: " In fact, once I understood why it was a bad idea, I 'pushed' for there not to be a mass claim." - clearly supported by MoS's abundant self quotes.

Let me ask YOU a question. What is it that you missed in post 888 that caused you to fail to realize that CES is full or wind?

[Cephrir]

Beep has a point. CES doesn't. I think MoS is exaggerating his defense a little ("I never pushed for massclaim" implies that he never even supported it to me), but he's still right.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I read Quack Mafia. Apparently, MoS is significantly suckier than I thought he was.

Unvote