Mini 539: Game over

[Nanosauromo]

As the town awakens, they see Jester lying in a large crater at the foot of the clock tower, dead. After searching his house, they find no incriminating evidence whatsoever.

Jester, a vanilla townie, is dead.

It is now Day 3. 7 alive, 4 to lynch!

[Xtoxm]

vote Gorgon

[kuribo]

So, here's what we have:

1) The two claimed masons live through the night. I don't quite understand it, but I'm not yet willing to take it as evidence that they are lying.

2) Why Jester? Why would the Mafia NK Jester? He certainly had suspicion against him.

3) Xtoxm, do you have a reason for voting Gorgon, or is it a "hunch?"

[Incognito]

I'm shocked about living through the night also. I can understand the Jester NK though; he pretty much confirmed himself as town by attacking Shteven so harshly and was pretty much the driving force behind Shteven's lynch.

My thoughts about each player so far:

• 1) kuribo: Still think this guy is town especially after learning Shteven's alignment.
  2) Justin Playfair: I've been receiving town vibes from him from the very start of the game and now is no different.
  3) MafiaSSK: My mason buddy. Obv town.
  4) Hjallti: I'm feeling like this guy is probably town. Justin Playfair covered this pretty well but if he is scum, I just wouldn't expect Hjallti to almost blatantly protect Shteven the way he did. I don't think he's today's lynch.
  5) Xtoxm: I think it's only his late Day 1 and some of Day 2 play that taints him. During my exchange with him at the end of Day 2, he felt more like exasperated town rather than scum so I think he's probably town as well.
  6)Gorgon: I think this guy might be the last scum (if there are in fact three of them). Upon reread, there was this little portion from charter that really stuck out to me:
  

  Not really sure about chronx. He hasn't really done enough for me to say he's scum, but there's something in the back of my head telling me he is.

  This statement came at the time that ChronX and I were going back and forth with our argument. It's exactly the kind of statement I would expect for one scum to say to another at a time that his scum partner is feeling a little heat without really going forward and attacking him. It's something that he would be able to use as an out later on if ChronX was in fact found as scum.
  
  Gorgon's play during Day 2 also seemed to display some accommodation for Shteven's play:
  

  Claus was pretty jolly towards Shteven, but that might easily be buddying up ...

  Indeed. Maybe, maybe not. I feel Shteven's responses to this are quite adequate, and not over-defensive. Shteven's initial premise, that it's likely that the scum are spread on the list, is valid, regardless of whether he's scum or town. Note that he didn't even dismiss the possibility that there might be scum on the 'Nice' list.

  Bottom line is ... my gut tells me Shteven is more likely to be town than not. And this analysis on Jester's attacks on Shteven doesn't win Jester many favours with me. To be honest, kuribo's attacks look much more genuine.

  Gorgon only began attempting to consider Shteven as possibly scummy at around the time that he began picking up more votes where he lists him as "looking slightly more scum".
  
  In conclusion, I agree with Xtoxm and believe that Gorgon is the correct lynch for today.

Vote: Gorgon

[Jester]

Boo. Go town!

[Incognito]

Hm. Now that I think about it, I have a theory about Xtoxm. Anywayz, I'll wait until the players check in.

[Gorgon]

Well, both claimed masons alive is an interesting turn of events.

What does it mean? Probably that the surviving scum wanted to pull a WIFOM. It's either that, or:

1) Both claimed masons are scum. I have little faith in this theory.

2) The masons are not confirmed townies. I have little faith in this as well. Unconfirmed masons are pretty rare, in my experience. Also, why would the scum mason not then kill his partner, to gain instant credibility ("Look, one mason came up town, so the other must be town too!"

Regarding theory 2), I have a question for Incog and SSK ... in your PM's, is your partner described as definite town? Please don't quote anything directly, of course, but I would like an answer to this, though.

Dismissing the possibility of scummy masons, the players that I have to consider are:

Hjallti
Xtoxm
kuribo
Justin Playfair

Of these, I still say Hjallti or Xtoxm are the most likely scum candidates, based on their play so far, plus the process of elmination.

Now that Shteven came up scum, I feel that it's unlikely that kuribo is scum, given how hard he went after him. Although the Jester kill

might

have been to give the message that Jester went after Shteven + Jester is town = kuribo went after Shteven + kuribo is town. I'm not sure how likely this possibility is though - there may be many reasons for the Jester kill ... but whatever it was, I don't think it was optimal play by the scummo.

I also still think JP is town, but he's a potential slippery customer. He should not be dismissed all too easily.

I know I was dead wrong about Shteven; he had me fooled pretty badly. A reread in light of him being scum might be quite enlightening.

[Incognito]

Regarding theory 2), I have a question for Incog and SSK ... in your PM's, is your partner described as definite town? Please don't quote anything directly, of course, but I would like an answer to this, though.

Nah, it doesn't say specifically that MafiaSSK is also town but this is something I checked with the mod about. I mentioned previously in one of my earlier posts that the mod confirmed this; because I'm aligned on the side of the town, SSK is also.

[Xtoxm]

I essentially put the death sentence on Stheven do you really think i'm scum?

Kuribo is clear imo. Consistent pro-town play throughout and generated most the argument for a Stheven lynch.

With the mason pair I think scum are jsut trying to get us lynching our masons in the belief one is scum. Still both clear imo.

Gorgon, H, JP are the only candidates. In that order. IMO.

[Xtoxm]

Incog, you have a theory on me? As in you think i'm scum?

Please, continue...

[Incognito]

Incog, you have a theory on me? As in you think i'm scum?

Please, continue...

No, it's more a theory that you're town but I'd rather not say what it is right now.

[Xtoxm]

Incog, you have a theory on me? As in you think i'm scum?

Please, continue...

No, it's more a theory that you're town but I'd rather not say what it is right now.

Ok. Sounds fair enough.

I'd like to know when the game ends You have me interested.

[kuribo]

For one to believe me to be scum, they'd have to believe that I'd be willing to hedge the scum's entire victory on myself--- not only did I aggressively go after Shteven, I started the wagon that led to his lynch.

[Hjallti]

I am left between Gorgon and Justin Playfair to be scum:

Ingonito and MafiaSSK are even more confirmed now, because even if there are two anti-town roles left, they wouldn't be partners (4 scum team seems not really possible)

kuribo and Shteven being scum together would mean they bussed eachother enormously and I don't believe that the case.

I really still believe Xtoxm is town

Which leaves me with Justin Playfair, who was getting under the radar lately and Gorgon.

vote: Gorgon

[Gorgon]

L-1 ... time to claim I guess.

I am a

cop

. Unfortunately, I don't have much info for you. charter wasn't around to investigate N1, so he got no results. I myself investigated Jester tonight.

However, I most likely won't get counterclaimed, and that should be proof enough that I'm telling the truth, so I suggest you remove your votes right now. And please, if I get hammered, lynch the bastard who hammers.

There's absolutely no sense in me being lynched just to prove my claim. The scum will definitely want to NK me ... especially since I find it unlikely that there is a GF in this game, seeing that the two dead scum are only 'mafia', and not 'goons', or some such.

[Xtoxm]

Hammer him.

[Hjallti]

unvote

I will think about this claim, but it doesn't seem to be very genuine considering the additional comments of Gorgon.

[Gorgon]

Hammer him.

F*ck you.

Vote: Xtoxm

[Gorgon]

I will get very pissed if I get lynched today. Call this appeal to emotion if you will, but it's not my fault that the game went to night with an absent cop, and then investigated the NK hit.

But go ahead and lynch an uncounterclaimed cop (because, again, I guarantee that I won't get counterclaimed) if you really think there is no cop in this game.

Anyway ... if you really do lynch me, don't do it right away, please. I have yet to reread the game, but I don't have time for that right now.

[Gorgon]

Regarding 'current affairs' ...

Xtoxm, please explain what you found scummy about Shteven. All through the end of yesterday, you were saying you thought he was scum, but never explained why. I would like to hear your reasons now.

[Xtoxm]

Seriously guys, we don't have a cop. Lynch him. We alreayd saw how much power the town has...

[Gorgon]

Seriously guys, we don't have a cop. Lynch him. We alreayd saw how much power the town has...

Answer my question.

[Xtoxm]

No. You're scum...

[Xtoxm]

I'll answer it 2moz if you came up town. Lol.

[Gorgon]

Then perhaps you can answer this line of thought ...

1) There's seven of us alive.

2) There is probably only one scum left.

3) From 1), and assuming 2) is correct, we have three lynches to spare before the town loses. Even if there are two scummos left alive, we have two lynches to spare.

4) A cop is a very useful role for the town, that the scum will probably not want to keep alive, especially since we have a dead doc. A lynched cop is. however, useless, and saves the scum the trouble of killing him.

5) In spite of the above, you want to lynch a claimed cop

today

, rather than, say, tomorrow, in the event that I will be alive by then.

Why?

I know the town seems overpowered with a doc, vig, two masons, and a cop, but, again, that's not my doing. It's frankly not my problem. All I know is that I am a cop, and that the rest of you would be extremely stupid to lynch me today.