Mini 539: Game over

[Incognito]

Okay guys, I have a few thoughts about this game and here's how I think we should go about it from here.

• 1)
  The Game Set-Up:
  I've been thinking about the game set-up both with and without a cop and my thoughts are as follows:
  a) With a cop: My feeling is that the only way this set-up could be balanced with a cop is if one of the scum is either a roleblocker or a godfather. The issue I have with this is that our mod has shown no indication that the scum have particular roles (a point that Gorgon has mentioned already). When the mod lists the scum after death, he just lists them as Mafia but not Mafia Goon or some other such thing. This fact is actually a point against Gorgon's cop claim and is really making me not consider his cop claim to be truthful.
  
  b) Without a cop: This set-up is actually quite balanced. A one-shot night-killing vigilante is a very swingy role; think about it: This game really opened up for the town mainly because Ythill was good enough to hit scum on the first night. Suppose Ythill hadn't hit scum during the first night... we might be in a very different situation right now. While I didn't agree with a lot of Ythill's methods or ideas or even his degree of controlling the thread, I do think we have to thank him for hitting the correct target during Night 1 and putting some extra thought into who he was targeting.
  
  2)
  Claus's Naughty And Nice List:
  When I first addressed Claus's Naughty and Nice List Day 2, I left out a little bit of information on purpose regarding why I thought it should be held at such high value. First of all, let's think about how Claus replaced into the game. He replaced ChronX, a guy who was not really suspected by anyone (except for maybe me and Justin Playfair) and who was actually listed by Ythill (our self-proclaimed one-shot night-kill vigilante) as "Probably Town". Think about this from Claus's perspective: You're scum and you know that this guy who is claiming to be the vig is telling the truth about his role. This Ythill guy has also listed your predecessor as probably town and has vowed to kill one of two people a) Incognito (a person you know to be town) or b) Shteven (your scum-buddy). When creating your Naughty and Nice list, would you really feel the need to bus one of your buddies so much that you'd actually list him/her as Naughty when you
  know
  that Ythill has thought of you to be "probably town"? I think not. The only person I thought Claus might have been busing was Apyadg/Jester but now we know that's not the case. I thought maybe Claus figured that Apyadg was a lost cause and that busing him might not be a bad decision. This is also the reason why I feel Justin Playfair is clear especially in combination with Claus's arguing with him; I'd even go as far as to consider JP to be almost like my second Mason buddy except I can't night-talk with him. I value his opinion of the game immensely.
  
  Think about it this way also: If Claus was really going to bus anyone, he probably should have bussed Shteven if anything since he was listed as Ythill's number two vig-shot choice. This fact probably set off alarm bells for Ythill also: Claus listed Incognito (his number one shot) in the Naughty list but Shteven (his number two shot) in the Nice list? That makes no sense.
  
  We now know that Shteven (nice list) was Claus's scum buddy and this is also why I feel Gorgon could be the other scum. IMO, it's either Gorgon or Xtoxm.
  
  The other thing I find wrong about listing charter as Nice is I think a lot of people kinda considered Ho1den and charter to be equivalents but yet Claus chose to put Ho1den in Middle of the Road and charter in Nice just because Ho1den seemed passive while charter's case against Apyadg-town was good? Again, it makes no damn sense. Grrrrrrrrrrrr I wanna vote for Gorgon.
  
  3)
  Plan of Action:
  I think we should just go down the Naughty and Nice list day by day. In my opinion, today's lynch should be Xtoxm since he was listed as number one on the Nice list. If Xtoxm's scum then hopefully the game will end and we'll all live happily ever after. If he's not scum though and if Gorgon really is the cop, he should investigate Justin Playfair to determine if he's town or not (I'm guessing he'll turn up town). Scum will kill tonight (either me, SSK, or Gorgon if we assume he's really the cop) and that will leave us with a new decision on Day 4. If it goes this far, my next choice to lynch would be Hjallti because of his more obvious ties to Shteven. Scum will again kill the next night leaving us at end-game. If Gorgon is still alive by then, lynch him because he's a lying scum-bag. I would like Justin Playfair to make the end-game final vote decision though if he really is an innocent.
  
  *sigh* I really don't want to believe Gorgon's claim because it really makes no sense. But I guess we can confirm this later on in the game.

Vote: Xtoxm

[Gorgon]

Note to self: From now on in my games, I will throw any notion of what constitutes a 'balanced game' right out the window.

Not that the case against me doesn't have additional merits besides the fact that the game seems unbalanced with me as a cop ... I admit as much.

Unvote

As per what I said above, I'm not quite ready to lynch Xtoxm yet, and don't want to risk a hammer.

Incognito's case, logical as it is, is based mostly on assumptions about Claus' list. Surely there's more info out there as well, such as Xtoxm's play by itself? I also feel Incog is starting to trust JP way too much; healthy scepticism towards

every

nonconfirmed player in the game is essential for any townie.

I want everyone to chime in about the game so far before the day ends, and in particular about the potential connections they see between the two dead scum and other players. I'm sure there's something there, even though my own sight is cloudy.

I also want Xtoxm to answer my question regarding why he was starting to think Shteven was scummy yesterday. If he doesn't, I will definitely vote him out today. He has no valid reason to withhold this information.

[Incognito]

I also want Xtoxm to answer my question regarding why he was starting to think Shteven was scummy yesterday. If he doesn't, I will definitely vote him out today. He has no valid reason to withhold this information.

Xtoxm, I do agree with Gorgon that you should definitely provide reasoning as to why you thought Shteven was scummy. A lot of your play and scum choices this game seem to be based more on a whim rather than solid cases and evidence that you provide against a person. Could you please outline why you found Shteven to be scummy?

[Xtoxm]

I did that yesterday.

[Xtoxm]

Wtf, why am I being lynched??? Lynch Gorgon ffs.

unvote vote Xtoxm

[Gorgon]

I did that yesterday.

Where did you provide reasons for your suspicion against Shteven yesterday? Here are all your posts back then re: Shteven. I don't think I missed anything.

Hey...Not liking the votes on Kuribo. Still think he's town personally. I think Jester has made a good start. Although I can't help but wonder if he hasn't mentioned any suspicion of me because he wants to try and shake me off after what i've said.

I'm starting to think more and more Stheven is scum.

unvote vote Shteven

Jester's play has been pretty good I think. I think Stheven is scum.

Maybe I am a good lynch, if it'll help you figure out who scum are. I get the feeling if I make it to lylo i'd be the play. Which is v bad for town.

Well it's not an appeal to emotion. I think Stheven is scum. I can actually see Jester being town now. Hold1en maybe as the partner.

I think Kuribo is the most strong town based on play. I'd be

very

surprised if he was scum. Obv you and SSK are confirmed town.

If you remember what Ythill said about the Claus-Justin affair, I think this shows very good on Justin.

That leaves Stheven, Jester and Holden/hjallti, Gorgon/charter. From my point of view.

Although I think the points made about Claus setting up Apy as the next lynch shows good on Jester. I could see Stheven paired with either of the other 2.

Regarding your self-vote, I'm going to ignore that bit of silliness. Please play the game. I know I myself got upset over peoples' reluctance to accept my claim, but I've calmed down since then. So should you.

P.S. I hope you're ready to get egg on your when this game is over, if you really are town. If you're town, your tunnelvisioned dismissal of my claim, in the face of all logic, is one of the most destructive antitown sh*t I've ever seen.

[Xtoxm]

w/e. If you were town you'd accept your lynch cos we have enough mislycnhes. Like I am. You are scum.

Lynch me today and Gorgon tomorrow.

[Gorgon]

w/e. If you were town you'd accept your lynch cos we have enough mislycnhes.

I will state this again, in plain language ...

I would accept my lynch if I were a vanilla townie, since there were no way that I would get NK'd any time soon, so the only way to 'get me out of the way' would be via a lynch.

I am, however, not a vanilla townie, but a cop, and therefore I do not accept my lynch, as there is still a chance that I might be able to get a scum tonight, and I am a threat to the scum, likely to get NK'd. Therefore it makes no sense for me to offer myself as a lynch today, when I

know

that it will be difficult for the scummo to leave me alive tonight.

What part of this is hard to understand?

And please provide a link to a game where a claimed cop (or failing that, another powerrole) voluntarily offered himself for the gallows, please.

[Xtoxm]

No.

[Xtoxm]

Hmmm...Actually...

[Xtoxm]

viewtopic.php?p=938522#938522

[kuribo]

Just because you made a bad play in that game by self-lynching while a cop doesn't mean that Gorgon should.

Further down the line, in that thread, Xtoxm is told that town should never vote themselves.

Hmmm....

[Gorgon]

viewtopic.php?p=938522#938522

lol - that happened in LYLO, and you got counterclaimed.

In this game, we are obviously not in LYLO, and I'm uncounterclaimed.

Plus, you obviously lost the game.

Fail.

Seriously - assume I'm really the cop (I know it's a stretch for you, but please do try). Do you really think the scummo would take the chance of leaving me alive? If he is a GF, of course, he's more likely to do so, but I'm not sure we have one. He could be a roleblocker as well, but I think that the scum probably would have blocked Ythill N1 if there was a roleblocker.

If you lynch me, that will make the scummo's life that much more easier. He can just pick out one of the masons tonight and be done with it.

Bottom line is, I'm not today's lynch, logically.

What exactly is unsound about the strategy of leaving me alive for one more night?

[Xtoxm]

Ok. With amount of doubt on your claim, and i'm not the only one, there's no way you're being nightkilled. You have a crappy investigation if you were cop you should have gone for someone not lynching Stheven. Like H or JP. IMO.

And you are today's lynch logically.

Just cos someone claims cop doesn't mean they are immune.

[Xtoxm]

Just because you made a bad play in that game by self-lynching while a cop doesn't mean that Gorgon should.

Further down the line, in that thread, Xtoxm is told that town should never vote themselves.

Hmmm....

This is different kuribo, we have 2 mislynches to play with. For some absurd reason you guys think i'm scum so lynch me and lynch Gorgon tomorrow.

[Incognito]

Xtoxm, I'm just as doubtful about the claim as you are but think about it logically please for a second. There are 7 people left in the game and if we assume that there's the typical three scum scenario that means that there's 1 scum left in the game and 6 of us that are town-aligned. Of the 6, 2 of us (me and MafiaSSK) are absolute confirmed townies. We essentially have two shots at mislynching without actually losing the game for the town (today's lynch and tomorrow's lynch). If Gorgon really is the cop, the scum know that he's the cop and will either a) kill him tonight or b) allow him to get an investigation and present his results tomorrow. I could see you getting upset about this if this was a LyLo situation where we might lose if we lynch incorrectly but we're fairly far from that. If Gorgon survives into an end-game scenario, then by all means you should question the validity of his claim. Right now though, we have to accept the fact that he could be telling the truth and if he is, this is a huge benefit for the town.

If you're town, I'd recommend you help us by finding evidence against the other players (Hjallti, Justin Playfair, and kuribo) that helps you believe that they're either town or scum. Gorgon is not today's lynch, period. I know I got this way when Ythill claimed Vig but please try and stop attacking him.

[Gorgon]

Ok. With amount of doubt on your claim, and i'm not the only one, there's no way you're being nightkilled. You have a crappy investigation if you were cop you should have gone for someone not lynching Stheven. Like H or JP. IMO.

And you are today's lynch logically.

Just cos someone claims cop doesn't mean they are immune.

So the scummo is just going to leave me alive on the (pretty bad) odds that I won't investigate him, simply because there are doubts about my claim? There's not a whole lot of unconfirmed players left you know. If we mislynch today, there will be three of those left tonight besides me.

Also, even if I get unlucky and investigate the wrong party, I will have an innocent result that will be useful. The scummo might try to counter that by killing one of the unconfirmed players, but he will be battling odds, plus also reducing the number of unconfirmed players, which is bad enough in itself.

Seriously, no matter what, tonight I will get information. If I'm still alive tomorrow, I can provide that information. If I'm still alive tomorrow, and there is still doubt, lynching me will at least confirm this information. Right now I have nothing, you know. My greatest fear is that the last scummo is a GF or a blocker, but I don't know that for sure, do I? I think the designation "Mafia" given to the lynched scum is a clue that there might not be a GF or an RB out there - which would make it that much logical for the scummo to kill me tonight. All the more reason for me to just let that happen, instead of having a lynch wasted on me.

Regarding my 'crappy investigation', I know I probably screwed that up. I should have gone for JP like I originally intended. This doesn't change the numbers though.

No matter what, it's very risky for the scummo to leave me alive tonight.

[Xtoxm]

If you bring up a town result the chance of GF if you really are cop overrides it.

[Gorgon]

If you bring up a town result the chance of GF if you really are cop overrides it.

There's truth in that, but what about the rest of my argument?

[Xtoxm]

What about it?

[kuribo]

Ok. With amount of doubt on your claim, and i'm not the only one, there's no way you're being nightkilled.

Directing the NK?

[Justin Playfair]

Incognito,

About this:

If Incog is scum, I'd bet dollars to donuts that MafiaSSK is not his partner.

I thought Kuribo was bread crumbing he was the cop yesterday. Not just donuts, but also such an absolutely confident opinion about MafiaSSK, almost like Kuribo knew. So most of the way through the day I’m thinking Kuribo’s attack on Shteven is just horrible, but I didn’t feel like I could let Shteven get anything started back on Kuribo because I’m convinced he’d be driving the lynch of our cop. Which means being wrong about one thing kept me from being wrong about another.

About other things (though I guess folks might want to judge anything I say by how perfectly inept I was about the above):

At this point, given the set-up Incognito listed above, the game Gorgon previously played in, and the fact that Ythill’s night one kill wasn’t blocked, I think we have to assume we have a godfather. We may not, but I think we have to play as though we do. Which means a large part of what I listed in my post above about strategy is irrelevant. We can only proceed on what Gorgon reports tomorrow if he brings back a guilty, and in fact, if he’s breathing to report anything tomorrow it seems to me it is almost certainly evidence that we have a godfather (or that Gorgon is scum). And the fact that a now confirmed scum was one of Ythill’s most likely vig targets seems to almost certainly mean there is no role blocker. I mean, you let him make his kill but also kill him? That makes sense which is non.

This means that some actions, like Kuribo leading the lynch of scum Shteven or Hjallti defending Shteven, have a bit less weight than they otherwise would.

First Kuribo. It might make sense for a godfather to bus his only remaining scum buddy. It polishes his town credentials nicely and of course if we have a cop he doesn’t have to worry about an investigation outing him, because he’ll come up innocent. Here’s why I don’t think this plays. Day two seems too early to bus for this purpose, especially if there is just one scum left. At the time Kuribo made his move on Shteven, not only was he not under any pressure but he put himself in more danger by doing so than he would have by not. To me Kuribo’s actions don’t seem reasonable as scum, not even as a godfather.

Hjallti. This makes perfect sense if we believe Hjallti suspected there was a cop. Hjallti would know Shteven was scum, and by defending Shteven he had a fair chance of pulling an investigation onto himself. If he is a godfather he would come up innocent and have a pretty good chance of going all the way. My main problem with Hjallti is this, though: After my pointing out that if Gorgon’s claim is true we have three claimed power roles and only two night kills left, what does Hjallti immediately do? He suggests a no-lynch. So we can have more information from more investigations.

Hjallti, please explain to us why a no-lynch would be more helpful to town than to scum.

Now onto our only other non-claimed (other than me). Xtoxm. Three new things here. One, Xtoxm reacted like a scalded cat to Gorgon’s claim. He tried to force an immediate lynch on Gorgon. Two, in trying to do so Xtoxm championed a strategy that he then backed with a meta that proved it was a bad strategy. Three, Shteven switched his vote off Kuribo and onto Xtoxm, but he only did so in extremis, and when it would have been very unlikely that there was time enough for votes to move even if there was the will in town to do so. And when this strategy was challenged Shteven didn’t respond. That might have been a matter of the time that was left, or Shteven giving up, but he had been rather fast and persistent in defending himself previously.

In reverse order, this is how much I suspect the three unclaimed players who are not me. I’m not going to vote until they’ve had a chance to speak and others have had a chance to weigh in, though. Votes have been flying around a little too furiously for my tastes so far today.

[Xtoxm]

How is Kuribo scum?

[Hjallti]

My nolynch hunch was just to remind everyone on a later day: Somehow for endgame it is sometimes more interesting to get a player more around:

If night starts at 1:3, then the scum can choose to kill or not kill. If all three townies are not confirmed a nokill is just better than a kill for mafia because it is LYLO both ways and chance on a mislynch is 3/4 rather than 2/3. My analysis below makes me believe this would be a wrong move of scum.

There for if we are at 1:4 we should consider no lynch as a option although I am not clear about that. I was just throwing it out to get reactions because I seem to get in some cycle of paradoxes about it I can't get out. Anyways as I said today is not the time to consider this.

In my eyes we have 3 possible scum (in fact two because I have more info on one of them, but for the sake of the argument I will not use it, and please don't call this a scumtell because it is not): Xtoxm, Justin and Hjallti.

We lynch one today (let say Xtoxm, for the sake of the argument I follow here the wagon)

either the game ends or continues

Tonight Gorgon investigates Justin

Possibilities for the night
* Gorgon is dead/cop we have 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum: kuribo, Justin and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is innocent: 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum Gorgon, kuribo and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is mafia: lynch Justin game over or Justin is town:
next day starts with 1:2 and Gorgon is lynched

1:4 with two confirmed townies going into the next day just is not enough since a mislynch would lead us to 1:2 with one confirmed townie: if he votes wrond we loose.

The conclusion is that we still need to scumhunt as hard as we can: we can't just lynch Xtoxm thinking he might be town.

[Xtoxm]

Ok..I think I realised the *slight* advantage of not lynching Gorgon today.

If he doesnt get a scum result I say to lynch him, whatever the reason may be...He's not trustable enough...

I guess Hj would be the next one.