Mini 539: Game over

[Hjallti]

Why me and not Justin?

[Xtoxm]

Cos I think JP is town. Not seen much of you, JP has done a lot, and Ytill was pretty confident in him too.

[Incognito]

Tonight Gorgon investigates Justin

Possibilities for the night
* Gorgon is dead/cop we have 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum: kuribo, Justin and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is innocent: 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum Gorgon, kuribo and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is mafia: lynch Justin game over or Justin is town:
next day starts with 1:2 and Gorgon is lynched

Ah, that's exactly what I wanted.

Gorgon, if you're the cop, I suggest you investigate Hjallti tonight instead of Justin Playfair and present your result tomorrow.

Btw, Gorgon, just for the record, what result did you get on Jester?

[kuribo]

I think we should continue scumhunting and not rely on Gorgon's tomorrow result. There's no way an even half-competent scum would allow Gorgon to live.

Then again, they didn't NK either of our masons last night, so i dunno.

[Hjallti]

Euh, I just used Justin and not Hjallti as an example (I added 'let's take Xtoxm for the sake of the example first and later I didn't with Justin but that was not the point). It seemed pretty awkward to do so. By the way I believe kuribo is town, but he is not confirmed as well, so from my point of view investigating Justin or kuribo is what I care about, of course from neutral perspective you could choose.

Incognito what do you propose tomorrow if Xtoxm turns out to be town, and Gorgon a dead cop?

Gorgon, I still don't see why you decided to investigate Jester and not kuribo, Xtoxm or me, while Jester was not suspected by anyone and each of us was.

[Hjallti]

EBWOP: you could choose me as well.

[Hjallti]

sorry for the triple post but kuribo croos posted:

I also believe we should keep on scumhunting, that was the conclusion of my analysis:

The conclusion is that we still need to scumhunt as hard as we can: we can't just lynch Xtoxm thinking he might be town.

[Xtoxm]

I think it's insane you actually think i'm scum.

[Xtoxm]

It's not like I defended Stheven to the death, like our "cop".

[Incognito]

Incognito what do you propose tomorrow if Xtoxm turns out to be town, and Gorgon a dead cop?

Let me think about this.

Day 3

kuribo
MafiaSSK
Incognito
Justin Playfair

Xtoxm

Gorgon
Hjallti

Night-kill: Gorgon

Day 4

kuribo
MafiaSSK
Incognito
Justin Playfair
Hjallti

Lynch: Hjallti
Night-kill: Incognito

Day 5

MafiaSSK
kuribo
Justin Playfair

SSK chooses lynchee between JP and kuribo (lol ironic eh? Game is on the line with SSK at the helm hahaha).

I dunno. I'd probably go with kuribo at that point and if JP ends up being scum then bravo, Justin. You deserved the fucking win anyway with that awesome busing work while not even ever getting a chance to speak with Claus as he replaced and being on his Naughty list and all.

*Point is, I really don't buy the claim at all and I think Gorgon will be alive tomorrow. I also don't think there's a GF in this game or a cop. The mod would have specifically mentioned Claus - Mafia Goon, shot through the head Night 1 and so on if there was a GF. And Jester as an investigation target? I wasn't born yesterday.

[Hjallti]

Who is the 'you' in the previous post?

I started the day with as order for last scum:
Gorgon
Justin Playfair
Xtoxm
kuribo
mafiaSSK
Incognito

Gorgon claimed without counterclaim so he goes up (temporary). If he survives next night it would be strange.
The two reasons I don't vote Xtoxm at this point is that we still need time to find the scum, we don't have a full proof plan, and that if we are going to lynch the most likely scum except Gorgon, it is not Xtoxm at this moment.

Justin,

There are two things that keep the above from being foolproof, of course. One would be the possibility that we have a godfather, which would make a GorgonCop impotent. The other would be that we have four scum, which is theoretically possible. The Wiki mentions three or four scum in a mini. And our situation, with a doctor, a vig, two masons and a cop, might just warrant four scum.

As I see it your analysis is far from the same as mine. I never used one of the above assumptions and in my analysis the plan isn't fullproof (foolproof? is my english of?) as well. Mostly you reasoning is pretty clear (albeit over-elaborated) but here you seem to be off. Did I miss something? Or did you?

[Incognito]

Who is the 'you' in the previous post?

The 'you' is Justin Playfair. Your ordering has Justin Playfair above even kuribo AND Xtoxm? Any reason why?

[Hjallti]

EBWOP: the you in Xtoxm post number: 832?


Incognito: Do you suggest lynching Gorgon tomorrow if he lives another day?

What if Gorgon is a cop, and scum keeps him alive?
As an example a scenario where I have to choose last day. Which one should I choose? Quite frankly I don't know...
(with permutation of names you could get such a scenario independent of town play, as I see it now)


Day 3

kuribo
MafiaSSK
Incognito
Justin Playfair

Xtoxm

Gorgon
Hjallti

Night-kill: Incognito
Investigation Hjallti: innocent

Day 4

kuribo

MafiaSSK
Gorgon
Justin Playfair
Hjallti

Lynch: kuribo
Night-kill: MafiaSSK
Investigation: Justin Playfair guilty

Day 5

Gorgon
Hjallti
Justin Playfair

[Xtoxm]

It was said to any and everyone...Whomever it applies.

WHY the hell would u lynch kuribo...?

[Incognito]

The above scenario is EXACTLY what I think will happen. And I mean EXACTLY.

If it gets to Day 5, Gorgon-scum will obviously fake-investigate JP as scum. If he lives that far, lynch Gorgon because he's a lying scum bag.

[Hjallti]

I think Justin is a great mafia-player, with an enormous town playstyle. therefor I read some of his post more as playstyle rather than town-tell. He seemed to be a bit to much under the radar lately aswell (but that could be only an impression)
He is kind of middle of the road, and the scum side of the road is getting very small.

kuribo-scum would have been Shteven to much in my opinion. I don't think kuribo would play it like that (which ofcourse is an argument that gets blown away by WIFOM).

Xtoxm playstyle is somehow opposite of Justins': much more scummy and erratic, but canceling that out I would think he is town here.

Incognito, why was my post 823 exactly what you wanted?

[Incognito]

Incognito, why was my post 823 exactly what you wanted?

It's not what I

want

to happen. It's what I

think

will happen. I predict an end-game scenario with one confirmed townie having to choose between Gorgon and the person Gorgon is claiming to have investigated as scum.

[Incognito]

Wait huh? Not 823... I meant 837.l

[Hjallti]

So as Xtoxm says we might even lynch Gorgon tomorrow if he comes back with an innocent?

[Hjallti]

you said it about post 823 not about 837!

[Incognito]

Your English confuses me. X_X

[Incognito]

OH! I get what you're saying... hold on.

[Incognito]

Tonight Gorgon investigates Justin

Possibilities for the night
* Gorgon is dead/cop we have 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum: kuribo, Justin and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is innocent: 1:4 with 2 confirmed townies (possible scum Gorgon, kuribo and me)
* Gorgon survives and says Justin is mafia: lynch Justin game over or Justin is town:
next day starts with 1:2 and Gorgon is lynched

Ah, that's exactly what I wanted.

Gorgon, if you're the cop, I suggest you investigate Hjallti tonight instead of Justin Playfair and present your result tomorrow.

Btw, Gorgon, just for the record, what result did you get on Jester?

You're talking about this?

I thought you fell into my trap because you made things too cut and dry. I suggested that Gorgon investigate Justin Playfair and you went along with it like it was foolproof. It just seemed to lead you (if you're scum) to an easy scum victory.

[Xtoxm]

So as Xtoxm says we might even lynch Gorgon tomorrow if he comes back with an innocent?

I strongly advise it.

[Xtoxm]

And please don't lynch kuribo or the masons...