Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[Sammich]

Well, I could be wrong and he actually rolled the dice, but I find that hard to believe.

The point I'm trying to make is that I highly doubt sammich rolled the dice.

Look at the time difference between the post where he messed up the code and the post where he said he rolled a dice and vote for himself.

Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: 10
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: 11

1 minute.

So. in 1 minute, he
1) messed up the code and decide to do it manually
2) find 2 dice and a coin
3) assign 11 people and a reroll to each number
4) roll dice 1
5) reroll dice 1 again
6) flip a coin
7) look down and see what he has got
8) type out his next post and submit it.

Yes.

But if you really think I was trying to do this to make me seem "fair", why? In a night start? Voting myself in a night start? Does that make any sense?

Vote Sammich

There, does that make it seem like I'm trying to be fair?

On another note, you might as well ask the other players why they voted randomly. Incognito, why did you vote Lowell just because he's a millimeter above your name?

=/

[Near]

Sammich. Did you really roll the dice or did you make it up?

[XReyoX]

Hey sammich,

If its a joke vote, admit that it's a joke vote. Don't try do make something up later on in the game so that you seem innocent. It doesn't work. I don't like lying town. Voting yourself doesn't make you a town either. What has a night start got to do with voting yourself anyway?

Tbh, I'm not too concerned about that like I've said. It's just something I'm not very happy with.

---

Sammich:
I'm sorry if I've missed your answer somewhere. Why did you claim, why do you think that it was a good time to claim townie and what made you think you want to vouch for mafiaplayer because you are a townie.

1,2,3,4...

[Sammich]

If its a joke vote, admit that it's a joke vote. Don't try do make something up later on in the game so that you seem innocent. It doesn't work. I don't like lying town. Voting yourself doesn't make you a town either. What has a night start got to do with voting yourself anyway?

Fine it was a joke vote.

[Near]

If you are mafia, admit that you are mafia. Don't try to lie right now so that you seem innocent. It doesn't work. I don't like lying scum. Voting yourself doesn't make you a town either. What has a night start got to do with voting yourself anyway?

[Imat]

Sammich, can you at least unvote yourself...Again...Now you're just being ridiculous.

However, I think we've narrowed the fields of possibilities down far too much to be certain of anything. I'm talking about the dice roll. There are several possibilities that explain it reasonably. Sammich hasn't said any of these yet, but that doesn't mean we can assume one way is the truth. I'd also, personally, like us to break off of the dice roll. Does voting with real dice and rolling yourself truly make one Scummy? If not, is there any real reason to pursue this line of thought? Just know that it happened and leans you towards Sammich, then continue with the game. Anything else happens, you can look at him with real suspicions. This current line of thinking seems rather distraction-prone.

[gorckat]

This game is fast leaving me in the dust, so rather than try to figure it out and make a single grand post, I've gotta jump in with my opinions on people where they are. If someone wants me to cover something specific, ask away. I've made notes for everything up to my replacement, and have kept up since then. I'm hitting highlights that jumped out at me.

---

Near

: His early vote hops do seem scummy. I move my vote a lot because its the only thing a townie's got, but his reasons in this game look really thin.

In the same post he admits that a too townie argument may be crap, says jerubbaal is too logical:

my townie argument could be crap but that was the impression I got re-reading your posts. you are too logical you are too poised .

Too Logical to be town? Too Poised? Makes no sense.

IMO, the probability of your being a townie AND getting the dice result to vote for yourself (1/11) is very small that it makes me think that probability of your being scum AND rigging the dice result to vote for yourself in order to show us that you are "fair" is significantly higher.

Two separate issues:

-The probability of Sammich being town: Assuming a standard 9/3 split and no SK, then its a ~72% chance of him being town, much higher than him being scum.
-If he's not scum, then the likelihood that he concocted the dice result: If he were scum and botched the tag, is it likely that he did it on purpose to invent his real world result? If he didn't screw it up on purpose, is it likely that he'd then invent a way to vote himself?

There are too many moving pieces to make him scum for rigging the die roll, and its bad logic to say so.

And on the Too Townie train, again:

Ok, here's yet another speculation by me, but isn't he trying too hard to look townie here?

Stop using too townie. Its WRONG. Take it the other way- can someone be too scummy to be scum?

And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

That is actually a fantastic way to setup mislynches, especially if the townie being buddied up to is already considered scummy.

vote: Near

---

Sammich's vouching for MP is just bizarre. This caught my eye, too:

It's been a while since I had a night start, I'm having fun.

That's a weird sentiment and one that strikes me as scummy with the vig dieing N0.

His either/or FoS on Incognito and Lowell also seemed scummy, like leaving the door open for whichever way people went.

---

Imat's rant about a restart reads like scum putting on townie airs. The rest of his posts seemed pretty good, however.

---

Like I said, I've got everything noted up to my replacement, including some things saved for later, pending info and connections. I'm gonna make a quick read and comment on what's gone on since I came in.

[Near]

Does voting with real dice and rolling yourself truly make one Scummy? If not, is there any real reason to pursue this line of thought? Just know that it happened and leans you towards Sammich, then continue with the game. Anything else happens, you can look at him with real suspicions. This current line of thinking seems rather distraction-prone.

Rolling a die in real life AND voting for yourself based on the dice outcome IS NOT scummy.

However: lying that you rolled a die AND pretending that the dice outcome dictated you to vote for yourself IS scummy.

The facts are:
1. It was physically impossible for Sammich to roll the dice like he described the process of in reality.
2. Therefore, Sammich lied. Repeatedly. He made up a story in order to convince us that he had in fact rolled the dice.
3. A townie (at least I would) just give up in the middle of it and admitted I was joking or I lied.
4. I think it's worth it to re-quote what Sammich has said:

In real game and voting for myself. Lolwut? But, it's not very easy to get a twelve sided dice in real life. It wasn't even a whole dice roll, per se. What I did was this.

1. Take two six sided dice. Dice one represents players one through five: Mafiaplayer, Incognito, Lowell, XReyoX, and myself. The sixth number on the die would indicate a reroll. Dice two represented thephantom, the catherder, Fat Tony, Imat, jerubbaal, and you, Near.

The odds of me being picked was actually 1 out of five players, but I wasn't shooting for that.

I rolled dice one and got the reroll number, odds of so being one out of six, even odds. Dice one rolled again got me, as you might think by now. The odds of me getting picked was one out of five players, and one out of six possible choices.

Dice two was an easier feat, and it rolled Imat. Right now that was one out of six possible choices, and the odds of him being picked were pretty average being that every player had one bid.

Rolling a dice that would've had more rerolls than players would've been stupid, so I took this to a simple heads or tails coin flip. Imat was heads, I was tails. It was even odds, entirely fair at 50/50. So, I flipped, and it came up tails.

Believe this story or not, there's not enough proof I rigged it IMO. Anybody can simply go offline and fabricate a story like this but who would really vote for themselves anyway?

5. EVEN AFTER XreyoX pointed out the time difference of one minute between his posts that made it physically impossible for him to do this, he still maintained he didn't lie. See post 200
6. In my opinion, there is very small chance that Sammich is town. Add the fact that Sammich vouched for MP in order to imply that he is a vanilla townie.

Unvote

Vote: Sammich

[Imat]

And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

And if people thought that Scum would avoid buddying up, wouldn't Scum avoid it? Truth is, no Scumtell doesn't come with its own circles. We can, I think, safely assume that Scum aren't stupid. Therefore they'll know what we expect of Scum and do the opposite. However, they'll know that we know that they'll avoid this behavior, so they'll exhibit this behavior. Its all very circular in the end.


Also, gorckat, I'd like to hear your views on other players. Surely the three of us aren't the only ones who caught your eye.


And Near. Again, you're ignoring other possibilities concerning the dice throw. I won't point them out, because I want to hear them from Sammich, but you can't focus on one possibility of the event in question and form your opinions off of it. If it could only have happened one way, then I'd agree with you. But there are several ways this could have happened.

[Near]

Near

: His early vote hops do seem scummy. I move my vote a lot because its the only thing a townie's got, but his reasons in this game look really thin.

In the same post he admits that a too townie argument may be crap, says jerubbaal is too logical:

my townie argument could be crap but that was the impression I got re-reading your posts. you are too logical you are too poised .

Too Logical to be town? Too Poised? Makes no sense.

The way I stated the reasons for suspecting jerubbaal was crap. It was an argument that will be defeated by the face of reason. I conceded that much. I was basing my suspicion on my hunches.

IMO, the probability of your being a townie AND getting the dice result to vote for yourself (1/11) is very small that it makes me think that probability of your being scum AND rigging the dice result to vote for yourself in order to show us that you are "fair" is significantly higher.

Two separate issues:

-The probability of Sammich being town: Assuming a standard 9/3 split and no SK, then its a ~72% chance of him being town, much higher than him being scum.
-If he's not scum, then the likelihood that he concocted the dice result: If he were scum and botched the tag, is it likely that he did it on purpose to invent his real world result? If he didn't screw it up on purpose, is it likely that he'd then invent a way to vote himself?

There are too many moving pieces to make him scum for rigging the die roll, and its bad logic to say so.

This would indeed take very complicated reasoning. And for now, I will let go of this argument. It is irrelevant, now, anyway, since we know that Sammich was lying.

And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

That is actually a fantastic way to setup mislynches, especially if the townie being buddied up to is already considered scummy.

If you quoted my entire paragraph, you will see that I was trying to illustrate that it leads to a WIFOM situation

Gorckat, your post tries to illustrate that I was wrong in my ways of thinking - but you fail to state why that makes me scummy in your eyes. Don't mistake logical flaws with characteristics of a scum.

[Near]

And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

And if people thought that Scum would avoid buddying up, wouldn't Scum avoid it? Truth is, no Scumtell doesn't come with its own circles. We can, I think, safely assume that Scum aren't stupid. Therefore they'll know what we expect of Scum and do the opposite. However, they'll know that we know that they'll avoid this behavior, so they'll exhibit this behavior. Its all very circular in the end.

Your confusion originates from the fact that gorckat decided to quote only part of my paragraph. What I really said:

Why? Because it looks like I am trying to buddy up with people? Isn't this another WIFOM situation? Saying I think someone is less likely to be a scum COULD be an attempt to buddy up, but it could also be an expression of my opinion. And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

[Near]

And Near. Again, you're ignoring other possibilities concerning the dice throw. I won't point them out, because I want to hear them from Sammich, but you can't focus on one possibility of the event in question and form your opinions off of it. If it could only have happened one way, then I'd agree with you. But there are several ways this could have happened.

Wow. Good. I think I know what you are thinking about, and I am pretty sure Sammich could figure out what it is after reading your post. However, the fact that he didn't bring it up until now makes this very unlikely.

For example, see post 200. He *again* denies that he was lying.

[gorckat]

The things I commented are, to me, the most promising leads. Like I said, I've got some minor things here and there that caught my eye, but didn't pan out when I went back for a second view in context. I'll hold them close to see for now.

MP is obviously useless. Everyone else ranges from slightly scummy to mostly townie.

As far as the "physical impossibility" of Sammich completing the rolls and coin flip- what makes it impossible?

-I have dice on hand at my desk
-I have coins in my pocket or in my desk drawer
-I have quick post enabled

Surely two people with the requisite equipment on hand to look at a player list and roll dice and then flip a coin must be scum! Although I'd have stuck with a d6 and rolled prime (me) /not prime (whoever i was rolling against) to see who to vote. Or maybe pips in the middle or odd/even or high/low. The only thing I'd question for an instant is the coin, but its not damning.

Plus, we don't see seconds, so there are really a full 1:59 he could have had to make his post.

[Near]

As far as the "physical impossibility" of Sammich completing the rolls and coin flip- what makes it impossible?

-I have dice on hand at my desk
-I have coins in my pocket or in my desk drawer
-I have quick post enabled

Surely two people with the requisite equipment on hand to look at a player list and roll dice and then flip a coin must be scum! Although I'd have stuck with a d6 and rolled prime (me) /not prime (whoever i was rolling against) to see who to vote. Or maybe pips in the middle or odd/even or high/low. The only thing I'd question for an instant is the coin, but its not damning.

Plus, we don't see seconds, so there are really a full 1:59 he could have had to make his post.

- Look at the list of players that were represented by each dice roll.

First die 1-6 = Mafiaplayer, Incognito, Lowell, XReyoX, and Sammich, reroll
Second die 1-6 = thephantom, the catherder, Fat Tony, Imat, jerubbaal, and you, Near

- I don't see any pattern in the list of names. It doesn't even coincide with the mod's list on the first page. It's not even alphabetical. Unless there is a simple pattern I am not seeing, he must have maintained this on paper or somewhere.

- It's weird that Sammich remembers what came up in the second die. It is possible if he kept the written notes after each die, but this would require more than 2 minutes.

- Finally, he admitted that he was lying - once it became apparent to him that it was impossible for him to sell us his fabricated story.

[jerubbaal]

Oh, so you take issue with all kinds of dice voting? I thought it was more because of the fact that he used actual, real-life dice as opposed to the ones provided by the site.

Dice voting in real life

IS

scummy.

Thinking/setting up a complicated system to decide on who to vote between 11 people in real life to accomplish nothing

IS

scummy or the person in action is psychotic.

Despite still thinking that Near is scummy as hell, I really like this point. I think the timeframe thing is largely irrelevant, as it's certainly possible to go through the motions in the time allotted. The whole thing really reads like someone who is obsessed with coming up with an explanation how fair and planned out their dice system was. Honestly. Two die rolls and a coin flip to randomly vote someone (yourself?) is simply ridiculous. There would be a vote here, but the wagon's quite far enough along by itself.

Sammich, did you actually go through the process that you outlined before, or was it just a joke vote?

[Imat]

And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

And if people thought that Scum would avoid buddying up, wouldn't Scum avoid it? Truth is, no Scumtell doesn't come with its own circles. We can, I think, safely assume that Scum aren't stupid. Therefore they'll know what we expect of Scum and do the opposite. However, they'll know that we know that they'll avoid this behavior, so they'll exhibit this behavior. Its all very circular in the end.

Your confusion originates from the fact that gorckat decided to quote only part of my paragraph. What I really said:

Why? Because it looks like I am trying to buddy up with people? Isn't this another WIFOM situation? Saying I think someone is less likely to be a scum COULD be an attempt to buddy up, but it could also be an expression of my opinion. And if buddying up is considered scummy, scums would avoid it.

I wasn't confused, actually. I was just pointing out that some consider Scumtells to be infallible when, as is usually the case, the Scum avoid those tells for that very reason. And when Townies finally get that point, they start looking at the opposite behaviors, leading Scum to go back to the original Scumtells. Its never a guaranteed thing, and to say that "Scum will do these things" is horribly condescending to our fellow players. You're mocking their intelligence when you say that, which comes down to personal rather than game jabs.

[jerubbaal]

Nah, there are some things that people do which are always scummy, like lie. LAL is a good rule.

You seem to be taking quite a bit of offense at a very minor point. You also assume that everything the scum do, they do deliberately. Perhaps that's the case with good scum, but not with most.

[destructor]

Ripley replaces thephantom

.::] Vote Count [::.

Mafiaplayer (2)

- XReyoX, gorckat

Sammich (2)

- Near, Sammich

Near (3)

- Incognito, Lowell, jerubaal

XReyoX (1)

- Mafiaplayer

Not Voting (4) - Ripley, Y, Imat

Six

votes makes a lynch.

Without meaning to be a drag, if you want to change your vote remember to unvote first. This makes my life easier and

is

a game mechanic as defined in the rules.

[XReyoX]

gorckat:
You've missed the post where Sammich admitted he lied. I didn't say it was physically impossible. Just highly unlikely. Thats why I persued the issue further along with other stuffs. The fact that he lied about one thing and then craft something to cover it up indicates he could do so with other cases as well. Since a scum wouldn't gain anything from what sammich did, it doesn't look like a scumtell to me. However, the fact that he continuously ignored my question is starting to get irritating.

---

Imat is right about the argument on scum avoiding scumtells. It leads us into a loop.

---

Sammich:
I'm sorry if I've missed your answer somewhere. Why did you claim, why do you think that it was a good time to claim townie and what made you think you want to vouch for mafiaplayer because you are a townie.

Is this neglect or selective reading?

[gorckat]

Y: For the record, my attempt to vote Near was

not

a well calculated gambit for reactions

Unvote

I did not see the disjointed list that Sammich claimed to have used; I thought he was just rolling against the player list. Its not impossible for him to recall what he was basing it on, but he has not alluded to anything that makes it seem likely.

I had read 203 as a frustrated "Shut up and bugger off already".

Sammich:

Was

the die roll made up?

@Near: The reason I voted you was not just using bad logic, it was because you pushed bad logic

after

acknowledging it was bad with the second two townie argument, the loose feel of your early votes.

In 207, what you push as facts are not indisputable:

The facts are:
1. It was physically impossible for Sammich to roll the dice like he described the process of in reality.
2. Therefore, Sammich lied. Repeatedly. He made up a story in order to convince us that he had in fact rolled the dice.
3. A townie (at least I would) just give up in the middle of it and admitted I was joking or I lied.
4. I think it's worth it to re-quote what Sammich has said:

<explains process>

5. EVEN AFTER XreyoX pointed out the time difference of one minute between his posts that made it physically impossible for him to do this, he still maintained he didn't lie. See post 200
6. In my opinion, there is very small chance that Sammich is town. Add the fact that Sammich vouched for MP in order to imply that he is a vanilla townie.

1. It was not impossible. I've already said I have the stuff on hand.
2. He may not have lied. It was possible.
3. This is your opinion
4. ---
5. Again- it is physically possible
6. Opinion as fact?

The way you present your theories and opinion as fact is scummy.

[XReyoX]

If I'd have to guess how he came up with the list. I'd say he filled it up while scrolling and skimming up and down page 1.
dice1
MP-first post.
lowell and incognito- third post.
Me- second post.
Then sammich himself.
dice2:
phantom, cat, tony and imat. All appeared a few post later.
and then jerubbaal.
Y and near didn't appear on Page1 so they are last on the dice.

---

it's interesting to know whether I'm right sammich

[gorckat]

They all posted by the time he did?

[XReyoX]

No. people on the second dice appeared after he had rolled the dice me think.

[Incognito]

All, just letting you know I'm trying to wrap up some big analysis for another game I'm in so I'll try to get caught up on recent stuff here once I'm done. Shouldn't take too long hopefully.

Incognito, why did you vote Lowell just because he's a millimeter above your name?

=/

I didn't vote for Lowell, silly! I voted for Imat.

[Lowell]

FTR, this dice debate is useless.