Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[Khelvaster]

Because I feel like it, a second votecount. By the way, is there anyone I should prod?

SensFan(1)--Jerrubaal
Jerrubaal(1)--SensFan

[jerubbaal]

I think you missed something very important here jerubbaal: This isn't a normal setup. With so many roleblockers, I actually find it likely that a Power Role of some other sort would have some distinguishing mark of some sort. So, in the end, probability in a normal game=close to none, probability in this setup=much, much higher.

And to Cavebear: We should probably lynch if we want this to work well.

Eh, and paint a big target on him for day 1 attention when he's effectively the only power role, that seems cruel and unusual. I don't find that it increases the likelihood of the PR at all. At this point, we basically have to decide whether to entrust the game to SF or not. If we entrust it to him and we're wrong, we lose, period. If we trust him and find a configuration which prevents NKs, we win. If we don't trust him, we still have a very strong chance of winning this game if we can lock down scum NKs. I am very simply not willing to trust SF with the entire game, so he goes.

And yes, we must lynch today. Not doing so only makes more holes for scum to squeeze through.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Has SF revealed his result yet?

Imat:

I'm 100% sure because he 'claimed' roleblocker before it was obvious everyone is a roleblocker.

[Joubert]

Jerubbaal brought a very important point here...

I posted my doubts earlier about SF's PR and I still think it's misplaced. But I don't push the possibility aside entirely either. The alleged Cop could reveal to be our key to success, or our key to demise. The basic plan is to setup the mutual blocks so SF can investigate. That is good IF SF is not Scum. If he is, he'll laugh at us and Scum will win without breaking a sweat...

On the other hand, the No-Lynch suggested earlier could be a reasonable alternative. We can't end up in Lylo with 9 people alive, right? But, thinking about it, the results SF will give us could very well be a fabrication if he's not a real Cop...

[ting =)]

I like cavebear's plan the most so far.

I propose we use random.org to decide pairings and who gets unpaired. That or we take votes like korts suggested. I don't like how ces made himself unpaired. Also, I think we need to keep SF alive. A lot of d2 discussion already stated how he's probably cop so I won't repeat the arguments. If we don't believe that SF is cop, we have no sure way to catch scum whichever plan we use. We'll just be stalling the game permanently.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

You want to

randomize

the pairings? Why? Don't you think we could use the information that's already in the thread to our benefit, and

choose

who we pair and who we don't pair?

[ting =)]

That or we take votes like korts suggested.

What I'm against is any one person or small group deciding the pairings. I think the unpaired person should be chosen by vote. For the others, we'll mostly be choosing at random among ourselves anyway. Random assignment guarantees no scum can make a suggestion that pairs him with his buddy.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

No, we're at 10 now, will be a 9 after lynch.

Right. Sorry, I confused this game with another one where we went to deadline without a lynch. After doing some math, I agree, we can't afford not to lynch.

Well, the way I see it, if SensFan is an actual cop, there's a very high chance of us winning. If he's not a cop, someone will die tonight, and he'll fake either being blocked (the obvious thing) or an innocent result. If we lynch one and establish four pairs plus one, there's a (1 - (1*3/4*2/4)) = 5/8 chance of scum managing to pair up if SensFan isn't scum. (One minus the chance of scum being spread out in different pairs.) Those aren't very good odds, actually. If we manage to lynch scum, their chance drops to one in sixteen.

In any case, we need to make up our minds about SensFan. For this, he needs to reveal his results.

[jerubbaal]

Agreed, SF needs to reveal, but I'm not entirely sure that it matters. No matter what he says, I still think he's the lynch for today. The decision revolving around him is whether or not we're willing to put the game in his hands, and I'm definitely not.

If everyone's so leery about CES making himself unpaired, we can put Korts as unpaired. I'd be fine with either of them being out.

[jerubbaal]

Actually, we need Shanba here or a replacement before we can move forward with anything. If we have someone who's inactive, they obviously can't RB.

[Korts]

Actually, we need Shanba here or a replacement before we can move forward with anything. If we have someone who's inactive, they obviously can't RB.

QFT, fair point.

about me being left unpaired, it makes me go all wobbly inside to have everyone trust me so much, but I'd rather we voted.

[SensFan]

about me being left unpaired, it makes me go all wobbly inside to have everyone trust me so much, but I'd rather we voted.

Vote: E
Vote: I
Vote: T
Vote: H
Vote: E
Vote: R

Vote: L
Vote: Y
Vote: N
Vote: C
Vote: H

Vote: M
Vote: E

Vote: O
Vote: R

Vote: I

Vote: G
Vote: O

Vote: U
Vote: N
Vote: P
Vote: A
Vote: I
Vote: R
Vote: E
Vote: D


-----

Vote: J
Vote: O
Vote: U
Vote: B
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: T

Vote: S
Vote: C
Vote: U
Vote: M

[Korts]

Right, if we lynch Joubert and he's town, we'll probably be in or near lylo. But by lynching him, we get to know whether SF is the real cop, and can carry on with the plan to pair RBs, now without the question of SF's honesty. If he's the real cop, we'll be having him investigate every night, while the nightkill is blocked. If he's scum, he'll be lynched D3, and even though we'll be in or near lylo, we can very probably stop any further nightkills.

By the way,

unvote

, I guess it was an overreaction to vote CESc right away for that.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Vote: J
Vote: O
Vote: U
Vote: B
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: T

Vote: S
Vote: C
Vote: U
Vote: M

Is this your result?

[SensFan]

Vote: J
Vote: O
Vote: U
Vote: B
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: T

Vote: S
Vote: C
Vote: U
Vote: M

Is this your result?

Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y

Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.

K, so we lynch Jerub. That'd leave 9 of us. 4 pair, with SF being the odd man out. Even though I still don't believe him, I guess this is the best course of action.

We also need a backup plan, for if Jerubbaal comes up town.

[Imat]

I think its (Probably) safe to assume the Mafia don't have a Framer (Or he was blocked) and that none of us are secretly Miller Roleblockers (If there is such a thing). Therefore if we lynch Jerub and he comes up Town, Sens would be the obvious next lynch. Unless people really think here is a Framer AND he escaped the blocks, unlikely as it is.

[SensFan]

Vote: Jeru

[Korts]

OK, so I may be slow, but SF? WTF? Is it jerubbaal, or Joubert that you investigated?

[Xylthixlm]

We don't lynch anyone until everyone has (a) checked in and (b) claimed their roleblock.

[SensFan]

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

[Korts]

Alright, then.

vote: Jeru

[jerubbaal]

Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y

Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.

K, so we lynch Jerub. That'd leave 9 of us. 4 pair, with SF being the odd man out. Even though I still don't believe him, I guess this is the best course of action.

We also need a backup plan, for if Jerubbaal comes up town.

How in a million years is this the best plan? Seriously. He even claimed guilty on Joubert, got some disbelieving responses and changed it to me. How blind are you? He is literally the most blatant scum I have seen in a game of mafia

EVER

. There are not PRs in mini-normals. I have looked for one and never found one. This is a game full of roleblockers, so, of course, the mod's going to paint a big fat target to draw a claim from the actual cop day 1. Think!!

Plus, did you see how fast the train jumped off him when he was inches away from being lynched day 1 right on to lovo, who was obviously townie? You don't find anything suspicious about that? Even when he goes a fingers Joubert first and then realizes "Oh, I shouldn't bus my scumbuddy here, what sounds like Joubert.... oh, let's finger Jeru." You are all being so blind about this it's absolutely infuriating.

[Xylthixlm]

I think that the presence of so many roleblockers here is another mark against SensFan. It's worth leaving him alive (if he's scum, he'll reveal himself pretty quickly), but we definitely shouldn't just follow his result for today.

[Imat]

Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y

Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.

K, so we lynch Jerub. That'd leave 9 of us. 4 pair, with SF being the odd man out. Even though I still don't believe him, I guess this is the best course of action.

We also need a backup plan, for if Jerubbaal comes up town.

How in a million years is this the best plan? Seriously. He even claimed guilty on Joubert, got some disbelieving responses and changed it to me. How blind are you? He is literally the most blatant scum I have seen in a game of mafia

EVER

. There are not PRs in mini-normals. I have looked for one and never found one. This is a game full of roleblockers, so, of course, the mod's going to paint a big fat target to draw a claim from the actual cop day 1. Think!!

He said Joubert was guilty, CESc said "Is this your result?" and then said "Oops, I meant Jerubaal." I don't see any pressure on him to change his result, just an overreaction from you, the target of his investigation. I think it'd be more than easy to confuse Joubert and Jerubaal, both obscure names starting with J. I don't see any pressure to change his verdict, nor do I see him changing to you just because he doesn't like you or what have you. I'd say this overreaction to a possibly Scummy player's result as very Scummy. If you didn't think we should trust SF, why care about it as much as you do? Because its your name?