Mini 539: Game over

[kuribo]

You know, I've had a thought.

Why has Gorgon only investigated (conveniently) players that we know to be dead (and thus know their alignment?)

Why wouldn't he have investigated one of our claimed Masons? Or one of the other "Middle of the Road" types?

[kuribo]

And I'm not saying we should lynch Gorgon, just that we need to keep an open mind for tomorrow, and that we shouldn't count on him being alive to give us his results.

Seriously, you guys keep betting on the fact that the scum will let a claimed cop live through the night.

[Xtoxm]

I'm more betting on them being the same person.

[Incognito]

Ho1den

Notable Interactions

Page 2

- ChronX-scum hits Ho1den pretty hard with this statement which seems like an early attempt to link Ho1den with MafiaSSK-town:

Hol1den found a quick reason to push the bandwagon momentum back at xtoxm.

Page 3

- Ho1den defends himself against ChronX-scum's statement:

Chronx - I was not pushing a bandwagon as you stated. He gave me a reason for the vote and I explained myself.

ChronX subtly attacks Ho1den yet again:

-Others are reacting rather badly to the wagon. Incognito and xtoxm are both exposing either bad or scummy play.

I don't especially like that several players are coaching xtoxm to play better.

I would prefer to let him flounder on his own and hold him accountable later. It will however, be useful to keep in mind who has been there with the virtual arm around his shoulder.

And again, Ho1den responds:

Chronx - I realize I have been "coaching" Xtoxm but my reasons are not to make him play less scummy; they are to get the answers from the person who was asked the question. We can't learn much from SSK if Xtoxm responds to all of his inconsistencies.

I think these are the interactions that Jester-town mentioned caught his eye:

Hjallti

.
:arrow: In the early game, he joined the Xtoxm band-wagon with ChronX and MafiaSSK (25), but then took a blast from ChronX for doing it (49)! An early obvious inconsistency from ChronX. What's suspicious is that ChronX's attack on Ho1den was rather mild, but Ho1den's defense was

very

graceful, almost elegant (56). It pinged my scumdar rather hard.

Although now that I read it more closely, he got the facts a little bit messed up. Ho1den joined the Xtoxm bandwagon but not with ChronX-scum; ChronX-scum was on the MafiaSSK bandwagon and not the Xtoxm one. Other than that though, he's right about ChronX-scum giving Ho1den a blast for doing it.

Page 5

- Things get slightly more interesting here. Ho1den had been on the defensive from ChronX-scum's attacks but this time Ho1den goes on the

offensive

against ChronX in this post:

@ChronX -

Its not like mafiaSSK isn't voteworthy.

Voteworthy at the time . . . okay. But SSK has made some other posts after this post trying to explain his actions and your vote has been sitting there for a while without even commenting on his new posts, not really sure I see how this is applying any pressure at all to him.

This post interests me because:
1) it is an attack against ChronX-scum (if Ho1den were scum, would he attack his partner this early this severely especially when a lot of new stuff was coming about on Page 5?) &
2) Claus mentioned something negative in his Naughty and Nice list about Ho1den: "he has a very

timid

style of attacking people". This caught my eye because I really do disagree with Claus's observation especially since I feel like the above-quoted post seems like a pretty decent attack against ChronX-scum to me. Justin Playfair mentioned this previously but was Claus going to use this as a way to attack Ho1den's eventual replacement? Is it another indication that Hjallti is town?

Also on this page Ho1den goes after ChronX-scum YET AGAIN:

I don't especially like that several players are coaching xtoxm to play better.

my gut feeling is that mafiaSSK is still possible scum, especially considering there now seems to be spirited defense on his behalf from a few places.

I'm not going to unvote the player I find most scummy to this point to satisfy the wishes of someone else who could very well be sticking up for his scumbuddy.

These type of vague accusations don't help us at all, and I'm getting tired of them. If you want to accuse me of something just do it as opposed to dropping subtle hints from which I can't defend myself. I realized you were busy from your previous post and didn't expect you to be following closely but I had a comment and put it out there. There was no need for your OMGUS response to a legitimate question.
I didn't ask you to unvote. I asked why you would have an active vote in place from something SSK said on page 1 without having even commented on anything he said afterwards.

Again, this doesn't strike me as this "timid attacking style" that Claus-scum mentioned in his Naughty and Nice list; this seems like Ho1den was attacking ChronX-scum pretty hard AND getting ready to place a vote on ChronX-scum.

Ho1den is replaced eventually.

Just one important note also about the Claus Naughty/Nice list:

Description of Ho1den (Middle of the Road):

Holden

:
Another lurker. Some of his posts I like (the Apy accusation, the questions to DS, and those to Ythill and Incognito regarding SSF), but he has a very timid style of accusing and not voting, or voting then later saying that he didn't want to lynch the person, that I find scummy. Middle of the road for me.

He calls Ho1den a lurker which is interesting because his description of Ho1den stands in striking contrast to his description of charter (Nice list):

Charter

: The little he posted gave me a townie feeling - his case on Apy was good. Then he dissappeared. Needs prodding, but I don't think he is a lynch candidate.

So Ho1den is Middle of the Road and a lurker for having 15 posts and a timid attacking style but charter is not a lurker and he's Nice but he only had 10 posts, most of which were not as wordy as Ho1den's? That's interesting. He also goes out of his way to mention that charter is not a lynch candidate but he classifies Ho1den's attacking style as scummy.

Hjallti's posts were mainly PBPAs of people. His read of Apyadg-town is interesting: He mentions that nothing can be deduced from his early play because he can't tell the difference between Newb-scum and Newb-town (I'll give Hjallti some townie points for this statement). His negative feelings about kuribo seemed to come about because of the constant argument between Xtoxm and kuribo, and he blames kuribo for keeping the arguments about the set-up alive. Early in his PBPA of kuribo, he seems to be leaning neutral but begins to receive a scummy read from him after Shteven-scum places a vote on kuribo and kuribo reacts to this vote. And because Jester was defending some of kuribo's play and not receiving the same read of kuribo that Hjallti was, he suggests that Jester and kuribo are scum partners (this is quite a deduction to make if we assume Hjallti is scum. Would scum Hjallti actually set things up so obviously, i.e. the scum grouping is either kuribo/Jester or Hjallti/Shteven? That's a tough call.)

Some conclusions: Ho1den's earlier play where he attacks ChronX-scum just doesn't read as something newb-scum would do. I might expect that from experienced scum to make the relationship between the two less transparent but not from Newb-scum. Claus's Naughty/Nice list is another tool that I use to believe that Hjallti just might be town. I

really

didn't get the same read off of Ho1den that Claus seemed to and I feel like he may have been trying to set up the attack against Ho1den's replacement.

Hjallti is interesting. He did side with Shteven but I honestly don't think he would be so obvious about his relationship with Shteven if they were both scum. I mean to set things up as such absolutes as Jester/kuribo are scum versus Hjallti/Shteven are scum? Hjallti seems like a better player than that. I think he honestly had a town read on Shteven and a scum read on kuribo and didn't feel like dropping it.

So basically, Ho1den's play does save Hjallti in this case, imo. I really do believe Hjallti is town.

[Incognito]

Next up is Justin Playfair.

[Incognito]

Justin Playfair

Page 2

- Doesn't vote MafiaSSK-town but does ask for some clarification about his early actions.

Page 3

- Huge attack against Ythill-town. More questions for MafiaSSK-town. Questions for me-town and some distrust of ChronX-scum. (

This is kinda interesting and something I just thought of. He seems to imply some distrust for ChronX's intentions early on but doesn't produce a wordy post to possibly question ChronX's motives. He produces these posts though for three people who I know to be town (Ythill, MafiaSSK, and me)

.)

Page 4

- More exchange between Ythill-town and Justin Playfair.

Page 5

- This page is interesting not really because the dialogue continues between Ythill and Justin Playfair, but I noticed something that probably led Ythill to determine that Northjayhawk was scum:

Honestly this early on, we really do not have a lot to go on yet, and I'm still trying to figure out what to make of Justin Playfair's long arguements. I do not agree with many of them against you, particularly his indirect assertion that Mafia's page one suspicion could have been believable, and for him to say that you cant criticise someone who criticised you seemed very silly to me to name just a couple problems I have with his posts.

This post feels like a buddy-up post, i.e. Northjayhawk-scum is feeling some pressure from Ythill-town so he attempts to buddy-up to him by disagreeing with the points Justin Playfair brings up against him. It almost seems like he was inviting Ythill to take a stronger look at Justin Playfair and to leave NJH out of the spotlight already. Could be indicative of JP being town.

Unrelated, this statement made me lol:

So in short, thank you for inviting me to discuss whether I beat my wife everywhere I go, but I think I’ll let you show anything even close to real evidence that I am beating her here, first.

Page 7

- Somes posts towards Ho1den and Apyadg-town. He also begins directing some posts at Shteven-scum in which he mentions some negative feelings about ChronX-scum:

I have a somewhat different take on ChronX than you do. You mention his drive-by attacks on Ho1den above but not those on Incognito. In both cases they seemed to me designed to place the player on the defensive in a manner where they have very little solid to answer, and therefore make themselves seem more defensive. Ho1den didn’t rise to the bait, but Incognito did and ChronX pushed him in a way that made me think more of someone trying to work a player into being lynched than someone trying to find scum. I was hoping to see if ChronX would continue his attack on Incognito after Incognito answered my questions to him, but unfortunately ChronX had stopped any meaningful posting by then. In any case, I have a somewhat less benevolent view of ChronX than you do.

Also more attacks on Ythill-town but his reasoning is solid. A smaller attack on Disciple Slayer-town happens here also.

This post is funny coming from Disciple Slayer considering how accurate he actually was but seemed so scummy doing it anyway:

I think most of the vocal people here are just townies arguing with each other. Only Shteven/NJH has really pinged my scumdar. My bet is that he's scum, with his buddies hiding in the shadows.

UNVOTE

VOTE: SHTEVEN

Page 8

- Seems like his focus is beginning to narrow in on Shteven-scum's contribution to the thread.

Page 9

- Made in response to Ythill's vig claim (opening the possibility of Ythill being a serial killer) and a statement towards Xtoxm.

Page 10

- Responds to Xtoxm about bread-crumbing and responds to me about Ythill's vig-claim.

At the start of Day 2, Justin Playfair lists his suspicions and doesn't exactly give Shteven-scum the most benevolent reading.

The thing about Justin Playfair is this: Much of his suspicion early on was centered around Ythill. It seems like by virtue of play-style his posts usually are directed at a single person rather than a whole cluster of people at one time. He also doesn't focus on people who are inactive in the game; only people who are actives. He does attack Shteven-scum early on when he replaces in, and he does look like he would attack ChronX-scum if he appeared in the thread again. Also by virtue of play-style it seems like JP places votes very infrequently. Because of this, it's very difficult to determine who JP is most suspicious of. I mean, yes, his P.E. # 1 throughout Day 1 seemed to be Ythill, he presented cases against Apyadg-town and Disciple Slayer-town but so did other people. I think his interactions with Shteven though when he first replaced in are notable as are the interactions between Justin Playfair and Claus when he replaced in also.

Claus attacked Justin Playfair pretty harshly (and attacked me pretty harshly as well). If JP is scum, I see no incentive for Claus to try this hard to bus JP at this stage of the game. Ythill (the game's soon-to-be-confirmed townie at that point) had already listed ChronX as "probably town" and virtually nobody else was suspicious of ChronX/Claus. When one is replacing into a game as scum, there is a time and place to bus your buddy upon replacement: See my replacing into Newbie 503. In this linked game, I was replacing a complete newbie who was at the top of everyone's list of suspicions. When I was giving player summaries, I decided to list my scum partner (Shanba) as most scummy because I felt my lynch was inevitable and listing him as highly scummy might buy us the win. It ended up working. In our game though (Mini 539), I just don't see the incentive for Claus to do that.

[Incognito]

Jester came up innocent, obviously.

Gorgon, btw, the reason why I asked about this is because I really don't want anything screwy happening tomorrow if we don't happen to lynch scum today, you really are the cop, and you do survive through the night. I could almost imagine you getting some sort of non-sane result to throw things even more into a cluster-fuck than they are already. By stating that he came up innocent, you're acknowledging that you could only be a

sane cop

and nothing screwy.

[Incognito]

Lunch time. I'll be back in a bit with kuribo.

[Incognito]

*sigh* I feel like there's almost no point in going over kuribo and Xtoxm. I feel like both of them are town. Is it not obvious to everyone else that Gorgon is lying about the cop claim? =(

[Incognito]

(except Xtoxm... Xtoxm feels it's fabricated also)

[kuribo]

*sigh* I feel like there's almost no point in going over kuribo and Xtoxm. I feel like both of them are town. Is it not obvious to everyone else that Gorgon is lying about the cop claim? =(

It is pretty obvious to me, as I've stated--- it's too convenient that he has only investigated the dead, and as a result won't confirm any living players for us.

Sorry, but if I had been the cop, I'd have investigated Hjallti for his defense of Shteven, or SSK or Incog to help verify their Mason claim.

The problem comes with lynching a claimed cop--- if he's lying, we probably win the game. But if he's telling the truth, then the scum gets two kills: 1) our claimed cop that we lynched, 2) whoever they decide to kill off.

[kuribo]

Looking over Incog's summary in 870, the fact that he pooh-pooh'd Sheven's slip about the number of scum as a weak tell... that kind of stands out to me. As it turned out, it was a very strong tell.

Even more telling--- he says that Shteven is scummy, Xtoxm is town--- AND THEN VOTES XTOXM. Why did you vote someone you believe to be town?

Mentions that Jester looks town to him--- and then Jester turns up dead that night.

So, let's see...

He's thought Apaydg was scum (he wasn't)
He's thought Xtoxm was scum (probably isn't)
Now he thinks it's Hjallti. I don't think so anymore. His argument includes the Appeal to Emotion that it "may just win us the game."

[Incognito]

Exactly! And is it a coincidence that on Claus's list, Shteven and charter were the only ones Claus listed as town-anything. Even the people in the nice list didn't get that "town-something" description.

See for yourself (I've bolded it):

The Nice:

Xtomx

: I like his play. He seems direct with his accusations and his defenses. His vote follows his opinions, and his opinions are consistent. Also, he does not verborrage .

Ythill

: IQ 147 boy . Has a tendency to build "infallible secret plans", but when he is not trying to solve the whole game on D1, I like his posts. Has been less wordy the last few pages, which makes me like him more. He attacks other people in a way that I see as honest scumhunting. SK is a possibility.

Shteven

: NightJay was OMGUSy, but from his abandonment, that may be personal. Shteven, on the other hand, seems to be playing solid, and is explicit in his position regarding other players, which is a

towntell

for me.

Charter

: The little he posted gave me a

townie feeling

- his case on Apy was good. Then he dissappeared. Needs prodding, but I don't think he is a lynch candidate.

I know it's stupid to lynch a claimed cop but to me it also seems stupid to lynch someone who you just completely believe is town.

[Xtoxm]

They see the light.

[Incognito]

*sigh*

Gorgon, if you're scum can you just admit it? Rofl. You're caught, buddy. Just give up already. Thanks for replacing and all and playing a great game but it's ovah!

[Gorgon]

It is pretty obvious to me, as I've stated--- it's too convenient that he has only investigated the dead, and as a result won't confirm any living players for us.

I have

not

only investigated the dead. I've done so once. I wasn't around for the first night; charter was AWOL for the entire night. You can see this if you look back - he left the site before night hit, and I didn't replace in until D2. As a result of this, I got no investigation results for N1. I believe I've already explained this.

The problem comes with lynching a claimed cop--- if he's lying, we probably win the game. But if he's telling the truth, then the scum gets two kills: 1) our claimed cop that we lynched, 2) whoever they decide to kill off.

Also, if I was lying and you don't lynch me, you would lose very little - the game would still go on, and I'd still be alive to lynch. It's cost-benefit. Only a moron would lynch me today.

Incognito, you should go over both Xtoxm and kuribo, for completeness.

Reading your review of me, I note that two points against me seem to be that I was starting to feel that Shteven was less town than before as he got drilled more, and that I voted for Xtoxm after having said that he was looking more town. Regarding that vote, note my exact reason for my vote - he was inactive, I got suspicious of that, and I flushed him out with my vote. From the context, it was a perfectly reasonable action, and it annoys me that you don't take the reason for my vote into account, Incognito - you focus solely on the fact that I stated in my earlier 'quick review' that Xtoxm was looking slightly more town.

Even more telling--- he says that Shteven is scummy, Xtoxm is town--- AND THEN VOTES XTOXM. Why did you vote someone you believe to be town?

I did not f*cking say that Shteven was scummy, and that Xtoxm is town. I said that Shteven was looking less town, and that Xtoxm was looking slightly more town. There's a huge difference, and it's disingenous for you to present that summary of mine like that. In that very same post, I also said I wanted to see stuff from Xtoxm and JP. Xtxom didn't post, and I found this suspicious. I ended up voting him because he didn't post.

Seriously, I'll repost the damn thing for all to see:

Just a quick post to reflect my general thoughts on the development of the game:

kuribo: Still looking town
Shteven: Looking less town
Jester: Looking more town
Hjallti: Still looking scum
Xtoxm: Looking slightly more town
JP: Still looking town

I will expand on this later; don't have the time right now.

Also, I want to see stuff from Xtoxm and JP.

P.S. Goodposting by Jester above.

That short summary post of mine seems to be damning to the rest of you. If you want, I can go over exactly what I was thinking at that point, and explain the reasons for my readings ... if I can remember it all.

However, expending energy to defend myself today is a bit pointless, since the chances of me getting killed tonight are pretty damn high,

assuming you're not stupid and lynch me

. I prefer to defend myself tomorrow, if I'm still alive.

One thing though ... there's definite bias here. You're looking at one short summary post, and assuming beforehand that there are some ulterior motives behind it. You don't even bother to ask why I was thinking these things at the time.

Another thing that I must mention though that I find it odd that kuribo has gone from Xtoxm over to voting Hjallti, and now he's joining Incognito in attacking me. Opportunism much, kuribo?

It is also interesting to note that kuribo overblows the case against me. There's two points worthy of note here. I mentioned both of them earlier in this post, but I'll summarise.

1) He says I have 'only investigated the dead', when that's false.

2) He says that I said that "Shteven is scummy, Xtoxm is town", when that's false as well.

Another thing that I find

very

interesting to note is that after I voted Xtoxm on the grounds that he hadn't posted, kuribo chimed in to essentially agree with these suspicions:

I know I said that I've had an epiphany about Xtoxm, but the last 3 posts throw my theory into deep doubt.

If you're actively monitoring the thread, why aren't you around? Do I have to keep pressure on you to keep you around?

And if you're not reading the posts, why are you voting?

But now, looking back, kuribo is playing down the reason for that vote of mine on Xtoxm, and emphasising the fact that in an earlier posts, I had said that "Xtoxm was town",

an extreme exaggeration on his part

.

Seriously, read the whole of pages 29-30 and judge for yourselves.

Are these misrepresentations deliberate, or are they lapses due to not paying attention? A worhwhile question indeed.

P.S.

DON'T F*CKING LYNCH ME TODAY YOU MORONS!

Seriously, it would be unbelievably stupid. But if you really do, pay very special to kuribo tomorrow ... not that I would care much about this game if you lynch me today. You deserve to lose if you do.

[Incognito]

Incognito, you should go over both Xtoxm and kuribo, for completeness.

Okay, I'll try to do that. Give me some time.

[Gorgon]

Seriously, read the whole of pages 29-30 and judge for yourselves.

EBWOP: That should read pages 28-29.

[Gorgon]

MafiaSSK hasn't posted at all D3. This is unacceptable.

Mod, please prod MafiaSSK and have him replaced if he doesn't respond

[Xtoxm]

He's been like this all game.

[Incognito]

Gorgon, sorry I've really been acting kinda thick. I guess the fact that I can only see you as scum weighs heavily on my mind to the point that I completely missed the benefits of having you around if you're actually the cop. If we lynch incorrectly today, the scum absolutely have to kill you if you're the cop. Because if they allow you to live and you present your investigation result tomorrow and you have an innocent, then obviously the other person who you didn't investigate is the other scum (why am I so thick sometimes?). That person gets lynched and the game should be over. If it isn't over at that point, then you're the last scum and you get lynched on Day 5. The key is of course that you don't investigate either me or MafiaSSK because we're confirmed innocents anyway. The only way none of this rings true is if there actually is a Godfather. I find this unlikely though because the mod didn't specify actual scum roles during death scenes. So on we proceed.

Justin Playfair, when doing my analysis of you there were certain things that did stick out to me that didn't reflect to well on you in my opinion. Early on even though you had your suspicions of Ythill, you still made it a point to direct questions towards various people about their behavior. I noticed in a lot of your earlier posts you did seem to mention some suspicions of ChronX but you never directed an elongated post questioning his actions, ever. Can you explain why you chose not to question him in the same manner that you chose to question me or Ythill or even MafiaSSK? You

did

express some concerns about his behavior but seemed to neglect questioning him about it.

Thanks for any responses you may have to this.

[Xtoxm]

Don't worry Incog, it took me days to realise the advantage - Based solely on claim - Of not lynching him today.

[kuribo]

Gorgon, as I said before, I don't advocate your lynch.

Don't curse at us, no one is cursing at you.

Just because I don't believe you, don't take it so personally.

You guys can lynch me if you like, as long as you promise that tomorrow you'll lynch Gorgon if he's "miraculously" not NK'd.

Although I must admit that Gorgon's attack on me is weak (Opportunism? Of course, I want the scum to swing) and reeks of reaching.

I still think Gorgon is scum, but I think we need a scapegoat. We need to lynch someone today and see how things go.

Personally, I nominate Justin Playfair since we've all had a hard time getting a read on him.

[MafiaSSK]

MafiaSSK hasn't posted at all D3. This is unacceptable.

Mod, please prod MafiaSSK and have him replaced if he doesn't respond

WHAT THE FUCK? Statewide tests and I can't have my inactiveness. Whatever.
Anyways my PBPA willbe coming up in my next post.

[Hjallti]

mod: Can you prod Justin?

I think the scenario below we should careful consider now (as an option not as what certainly will happen):
If we mislynch today, Incognito is killed to night, and Gorgon comes back with an innocent

I already thought through what happens if we leave Gorgon alive (a 2:1 with one confirmed townie)

we lynch him, and he turns out to be a real cop. the night starts with 3:1 and two confirmed townies as well, and thus we also have the situation of 2:1 with one confirmed townie. The main difference is that in that case the two others don't involve Gorgon.

Because if they allow you to live and you present your investigation result tomorrow and you have an innocent, then obviously the other person who you didn't investigate is the other scum (why am I so thick sometimes?). That person gets lynched and the game should be over.

Apart from Gorgon we still have 4 scum candidates, have we? Or are you willing to leave kuribo out of the picture?

I will be away from next wednesday onwards (first totally, later limited acces).