Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[Korts]

What makes me uncomfortable is the possibility that SF could be Scum even if Jerub turned up Scum. Basically, we are confronted with: we lynch Jerub to find out SF's identity VS we kill SF immediately because his PR doesn't make sense...

And what would SF gain, if he's scum, by getting his partner lynched? He'd get a nightkill, yeah, but town wouldn't be any closer to losing.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

I'm pretty sure Jerub is town.

Vote: W
Vote: H
Vote: Y

Metagaming.

As in?

As in I've seen Jerubbaal play as scum before, and his play here isn't even remotely similar. As in, Jerub tries to stay calm when attacked as scum, while he appears honestly frustrated here. As in, and this isn't really metagaming, I'd rather lynch SF to verify his result than lynch Jerubbaal to lynch SF's result.

Unvote

if I'm voting.

[SensFan]

I'd rather lynch SF to verify his result than lynch Jerubbaal to lynch SF's result.

Vote: A
Vote: N
Vote: D

Vote: R
Vote: I
Vote: S
Vote: K

Vote: L
Vote: O
Vote: S
Vote: I
Vote: N
Vote: G

Vote: C
Vote: O
Vote: P

[Korts]

I'd rather lynch SF to verify his result than lynch Jerubbaal to lynch SF's result.

Vote: A
Vote: N
Vote: D

Vote: R
Vote: I
Vote: S
Vote: K

Vote: L
Vote: O
Vote: S
Vote: I
Vote: N
Vote: G

Vote: C
Vote: O
Vote: P

What SF said. By lynching jerubbaal we confirm SF as either scum or cop, but by lynching SF we possibly lose a way to win this game. I dunno if that's understandable to you.

[Korts]

Yeah, that sounds a bit off.

We have 50% chance of SF being cop. If we lynch jerubbaal, we confirm him. 50% says we have the game in the bag. 50% says we have a difficult time.

If we lynch SF, on the other hand, we won't have any further use of him if he's cop, and we have a 100% chance of a difficult time.

I'd go with the easier way, if you don't mind.

Also, could you provide a link to the cited game?

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

We have 50% chance of SF being cop.

I was actually thinking like 10%.

[Khelvaster]

No changes to voting

SensFan(1)--Jerrubaal
Jerrubaal(1)--SensFan

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Vote Sensfan

[Joubert]

And what would SF gain, if he's scum, by getting his partner lynched? He'd get a nightkill, yeah, but town wouldn't be any closer to losing.

Because of that strategy discussed earlier. If SF is trusted, he will look for Scum while the others roleblock in pairs. But if he turns up Scum, he could mislead the Town any way he pleases. And now, we have CES' other point, which has to be weighted like anything else. Although I don't like metagaming very much, it's still another marble in the scale...

[Korts]

And what would SF gain, if he's scum, by getting his partner lynched? He'd get a nightkill, yeah, but town wouldn't be any closer to losing.

Because of that strategy discussed earlier. If SF is trusted, he will look for Scum while the others roleblock in pairs. But if he turns up Scum, he could mislead the Town any way he pleases. And now, we have CES' other point, which has to be weighted like anything else. Although I don't like metagaming very much, it's still another marble in the scale...

SF would only be able to mislead the town for a single day, because he'd be the one unpaired. The best way is to trust his results for this day, and if a nightkill happens even with the pairing, we lynch SF.

[jerubbaal]

I do have a page on the wiki with all my games linked, for the curious minded. I think it's been updated semi-recently.

If there were equal chances of both SF or myself being scum, then the position you're advocating actually makes some sense. I'm just completely floored that you actually consider that to be the case. Have any of you ever found another PR in a mini-normal, much less one which would paint a giant target on effectively the only power role in a game? Or the quick jump from SF's wagon to lovo's? SF is quite literally the most blatant scum that I have ever seen in a day 1 ever, period, end of story. Read the thread, and stop being idiots.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, honestly - leaving him alive but not following his results is just about the worst option. Why did you think it would be a good idea?

I'm seriously considering the no lynch option. No lynch repeatedly, and when he has results on everyone, lynch him and see if he was a cop.

[Shanba]

I do have a page on the wiki with all my games linked, for the curious minded. I think it's been updated semi-recently.

If there were equal chances of both SF or myself being scum, then the position you're advocating actually makes some sense. I'm just completely floored that you actually consider that to be the case. Have any of you ever found another PR in a mini-normal, much less one which would paint a giant target on effectively the only power role in a game? Or the quick jump from SF's wagon to lovo's? SF is quite literally the most blatant scum that I have ever seen in a day 1 ever, period, end of story. Read the thread, and stop being idiots.

And you need to calm down and consider that winning the gamer goes beyond your own survival, if you are town. We at the very least another lynch - even if you are not scum and we lynch you, it is not game over, and if that were the case, we would

100%

lynch sf tomorrow. So you can stop shouting over and over "lynch sensfan" - if you're town,

that's going to happen whatever

. Now please, stop concentrate on more important things - like, for example, roleblocking pairings. If we get them right, we've all but won.

Xyl, honestly - leaving him alive but not following his results is just about the worst option. Why did you think it would be a good idea?

I'm seriously considering the no lynch option. No lynch repeatedly, and when he has results on everyone, lynch him and see if he was a cop.

Hm. That's an option I simply hadn't considered. But with 9 rbers alive we can't make neat pairings, so we'd either have to lynch or have an unblocked rber.

I really like the idea of no lynching, actually, even witht he unblocked blocker. We should start discussing pairings, too.

@everyone: Please state one pairing between two players you would like and also who you would prefer to be paired with. Personally, I'd like to see CESc and Jerub paired and want to paired with joubert myself.

[Xylthixlm]

Going by the first post...
CESc - jerubbaal
Joubert - korts
Imat & SensFan unpaired
Shanba - ting =)
Cavebear with a Toothache - Xylthixlm

[Shanba]

Can I just state how uncomfortable I am with doing it randomly like that? I'd much rather use the information we have to improve our chances above random.

[jerubbaal]

Ick, two very lousy suggestions from Xyl. No lynch is not an option. If SF goes unpaired, there will be an NK, and we will simply be back tomorrow with more useless information which gets us nowhere and one more dead townie. SF needs to die today, there is no other plan I will approve of.

As far as pairings go, we need to use what we know to make the best pairings we can. I feel very strongly about CES and Korts being town, so I would nominate either of them to set the pairings for the night. I want one of them to be unpaired (which is the highest risk position) and the other to be paired with one of the more suspicious characters. I'll be pretty much cleared after we lynch SF, so same here. We'll just have to work the other pairings out as best we can.

Despite feeling very strongly that Korts is town, I think CES is better at this, so I think he should set out the pairings. If it would still your beating hearts, set out another set of pairings in the case that I'm lying, but you won't need them.

@Shanba - I am not being egotistical or short-sighted at all. Day 1, this town proved to me how unable they were to see what is right in front of their eyes. There is a decent chance that my lynch today will put us in lylo, and even once you lynch SF, all it takes is one mislynch or mispair to lose the game, and you have essentially no information.

We need information to win this game, and by lynching SF today instead of giving him a free lynch, we get the space we need to acquire such information. Even if the other 2 scum get miraculously paired up tonight, we still have 6 townies to 2 scum, instead of 4 townies to 2 scum. That's an extremely significant margin when we have the potential to stop NKs. The chances that we lose this game if I get lynched are quite high.

[Korts]

About the pairings. I'm very uncomfortable with a jerubbaal-Cogito Ergo Scum pair. CESc is overly defending jeru, and I got the feeling that he was agreeing with following SF up to the point that jeru started shouting. Beyond that, when CESc made his pairs, jerubbaal immediately chimed in, agreeing with it all, which makes me suspect them. Although by that theory Xyl would also be scum, because that's who CESc paired jeru with.

Also, I'm still uncomfortable with any plan that includes lynching SF today.

My plan:
Lynch for the day: jeru.
Pairs:
Cavebear-CESc
Shanba-Xyl
Imat-Joubert
ting-Korts
SF goes unpaired, if jeru turns up town or there's a nightkill, he's NO. 1 suspect.

[Korts]

EBWOP

Also, I'm still uncomfortable with any plan that includes lynching SF today.

I'd correct that. Anyone who wants to lynch SF today is scum by my definition. We lose little, and gain a lot of information by letting him live. On the other hand, we lose a lot more if we lynch him and he turns up cop.

[Korts]

Although by that theory Xyl would also be scum, because that's who CESc paired jeru with.

Hey, I found something. Xyl could very easily be scum along with CESc and jeru, by the following.

Going by the first post...
CESc - jerubbaal
Joubert - korts
Imat & SensFan unpaired
Shanba - ting =)
Cavebear with a Toothache - Xylthixlm

As in, CESc put jeru and Xyl together in a pair, and now Xyl puts CESc and jeru together. It's not much, I admit, but still.

[Xylthixlm]

Korts, compare my pairings to the list of living players in the first post. See a pattern?

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

No-lynch: Bad idea, we're not at lylo, and I don't want two unpaired people for tonight.

Randomly pair: Again, bad idea. As Shanba and I already pointed out, there's information to go off before we pair.

Korts: You're paranoid.

[jerubbaal]

No-lynch: Bad idea, we're not at lylo, and I don't want two unpaired people for tonight.

Randomly pair: Again, bad idea. As Shanba and I already pointed out, there's information to go off before we pair.

Korts: You're paranoid.

QFT

As far as pairings, I see us as having three nearly confirmed townies once we lynch SF - CES, Korts, and myself. Of these three, one should be the odd man out, and the other two should be paired with the most suspicious remaining players. The top two players on my list are Joubert, for the errant hammer day 1, and Xyl, for the suggestion about no-lynch as well as the late bandwagon switch day 1. No-lynch only benefits scum at this point. Shanba's pretty close for agreeing with the no-lynch, but Xyl and Joubert are my top two. The rest are similarly iffy, no very strong reads.

[Joubert]

I don't have any much to add, but still to confirm my position. Lynching jerubbaal (even if it's not fun to be killed) really could deliver better results than only lynching SF, because ANYWAY, if jerubbaal turns up Town, SF should be lynched right away...

Another thing about the pairings: with 10 people alive, we can't have pairings with someone left alone, unless we craft a threesome with 3 RBs...

[ting =)]

I've been rereading, and I'm willing to believe that both Korts and CES are town. I propose we lynch Jeru and make 2 pairing plans. If Jeru turns out scum, we pair ourselves and leave SF free so he can investigate. If Jeru turns out town, we leave either Korts or CES free and have the other block SF to prevent a nightkill.

I don't think we should lynch SF because like everyone's already said, we have more to lose by lynching him, and more to gain by keeping him alive if he's cop. It's better to confirm him by lynching Jeru.

Also, we'll never agree with each other on the pairings if we all make suggestions. I think we should let either CES or Korts decide, since everyone's more or less agreed that they're both town.

[jerubbaal]

I agree that, if the odds of me being scum were the same as SF being scum, that you have more to lose by lynching the claimed cop, but in the situation we're in, it's simply preposterous not to lynch him today. Do actually read the thread and deal with the information we have at our disposal. The odds are far from equal. Do I have to say it again - PR IN A MINI-NORMAL DOES NOT HAPPEN. Period. Honestly, I'm going to spend some time looking through the rules and see if it's even permitted.