Cultafia: Game over

[Guardian]

Vote Count 6

Blazerunner [5] (the silent speaker, Greggo, mnowax, malthusis, vikingfan)
mnowax [3] (curiouskarmadog, Blazerunner, mypenguinkat)
Greggo [1] (ZaneWasHere)

Not Voting [6]: Occult, vollkan, stark, Yosarian2, armlx, springlullaby

I'm awesome.

[vikingfan]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

[Guardian]

ZaneWasHere has requested replacement. Searching... Norinel should be taking back over at any time, btw.

[springlullaby]

I'd like to hear from mnowax before taking a decision as well.

[Yosarian2]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

But...the thing I keep coming back to, the thing that no one seems to have answered yet, is, even if Mnowax is right and telling the truth, that would make Blaze either a vig or a SK, right? Would we really want to lynch a vig or a SK day 1 here?

[curiouskarmadog]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

But...the thing I keep coming back to, the thing that no one seems to have answered yet, is, even if Mnowax is right and telling the truth, that would make Blaze either a vig or a SK, right? Would we really want to lynch a vig or a SK day 1 here?

If Blaze was a Vig I dont understand why he hasnt claimed that yet....

unvote

I am beginning to believe his claim though as there are a lot of "town" agreeing with him without really stating why..for example.

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

States he believes Mno, but no reason why. Then sets up a lynch chain...please viking, why couldnt this go the other way, lynch Mno and if he is town lynch Blaze? Something is not right here.

vote vikingfan.

please why do you believe Mno's claim?

[Greggo]

Sorry I haven't been around everyone. I will be working to catch up.

After a quick read I just want to ask a question.
mnowax, if you're pro-town, then I suggest you claim. If you don't, you're looking mighty suspicious at the moment.
However, if the reason you "know" that Blazerunner is anti-town is somewhere in the game, I suggest that you give us the evidence. Hiding the evidence doesn't help your case.
On the other hand, if you are anti-town, claim now!

Not sure if it should be there, so

unvote

[armlx]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

I do not like this post, especially since I explained why Mno is not a good lynch earlier (recap: either he is town or recruit, not SK or Recruiter).

[vikingfan]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

But...the thing I keep coming back to, the thing that no one seems to have answered yet, is, even if Mnowax is right and telling the truth, that would make Blaze either a vig or a SK, right? Would we really want to lynch a vig or a SK day 1 here?

If Blaze was a Vig I dont understand why he hasnt claimed that yet....

unvote

I am beginning to believe his claim though as there are a lot of "town" agreeing with him without really stating why..for example.

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

States he believes Mno, but no reason why. Then sets up a lynch chain...please viking, why couldnt this go the other way, lynch Mno and if he is town lynch Blaze? Something is not right here.

vote vikingfan.

please why do you believe Mno's claim?

Let me rephrase that. It's not so much that I believe him as that I think we have a likely scum either way. If he's lying and we lynch blaze today, we lynch wax tomorrow and nail a scum. If he's right, we've nailed a scum anyway.

As for whether or not it's wise to lynch an SK (what Yosarian is mentioning), that can go both ways. An SK can kill both town AND cult- it's not necessarily a given that he's working for the town, particularly if he kills one of the Steadfast roles. I'd be interested in seeing the math on this.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I agree that a SK is a threat to both town and cult. However, at this point (basically, at any point until the cult recruiters are dead), the cult is the main threat to him; any multi-person group spells doom for a SK in endgame unless he kills most of them off first, no matter if they're masons or mafia or whatever, and with a cult recruiter it's much harder; since the SK can't be recruited, basically his only way of winning would be to take out the cult or cults, because once they have enough members and the rest of the town gets small enough they'll have little problem finding and lynching him.

And, frankly, I tend to think if there are two cult recruiters, I tend to think this game is probably balanced pretty strongly against the town. I have trouble imagining any way it could not be. If there's a lynch, a vig kill, and a SK kill each day/night cycle, it seems like there's a much higher chance of taking out the cult recruiters early enough for the town to have a reasonable chance. Especally after the disaster of Lost Boys mafia, I really feel like in any cult game, the town has a very limited window to act in a cult game; every day the town fails to get rid of the cult leader, the cult grows stronger, the town gets weaker, the town actually has less and less idea of who's town and who's not, and more and more of the strong players in the game start acting against the interests of the town. After a while it gets to be like walking through quicksand.

Obveously we'd need to eliminate a SK eventually, but at the moment, I think the more kills that hit early, even semi-random ones, the more chance the town has to kill cult recruiters, or at least to whittle down some of the cult's numbers, before the game becomes much less winnable for the town.

[Norinel]

NabakovNabakov replaces ZaneWasHere.

[armlx]

Fair enough Yosarian. I've never actually been in a game where the cult lived past D3. Though in retrospect only 1 has been because the cult leader wasn't night killed, so I should have figured that out.

Unvote

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Have to think from there.

[vollkan]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

But...the thing I keep coming back to, the thing that no one seems to have answered yet, is, even if Mnowax is right and telling the truth, that would make Blaze either a vig or a SK, right? Would we really want to lynch a vig or a SK day 1 here?

If Blaze was a Vig I dont understand why he hasnt claimed that yet....

unvote

I am beginning to believe his claim though as there are a lot of "town" agreeing with him without really stating why..for example.

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

States he believes Mno, but no reason why. Then sets up a lynch chain...please viking, why couldnt this go the other way, lynch Mno and if he is town lynch Blaze? Something is not right here.

vote vikingfan.

please why do you believe Mno's claim?

Let me rephrase that. It's not so much that I believe him as that I think we have a likely scum either way. If he's lying and we lynch blaze today, we lynch wax tomorrow and nail a scum. If he's right, we've nailed a scum anyway.

As for whether or not it's wise to lynch an SK (what Yosarian is mentioning), that can go both ways. An SK can kill both town AND cult- it's not necessarily a given that he's working for the town, particularly if he kills one of the Steadfast roles. I'd be interested in seeing the math on this.

The problem here (aside from the set-up dynamics explored by Yosarian) is that I can't quite see how we determine whether or not mno "lied". t's unclear whether his evidence is just a tell from one of Blaze's posts, or is the result of role-based information possessed by mno. In other words, because of the fact that mno has been ambiguous (not unreasonably I might add) about how he "knows" there exists an element of plausible deniability in this. Maybe I have missed something, but this fact is giving me some trouble thinking about.

[the silent speaker]

It's unclear whether his evidence is just a tell from one of Blaze's posts, or is the result of role-based information possessed by mno.

Well, mnowax did say that if Blazerunner is town that he should die in Blaze's place. If all he had were tells, no matter how convincing, he wouldn't put himself in front of the firing squad like that, I don't think (whether he's town

or

scum[/i]).

What I have on Blazerunner, OTOH,

is

tells. I am very confident of them, and more so with mnowax's assertions of role information backed up by tells of his own, but nothing like a mod-revealed smoking gun. My tells are generic to scum. For my money Blaze could be SK or Cult Leader (taking mnowax into account rather more likely SK, but those aren't

my

tells).

[Blazerunner]

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Funny how you dont even consider mno might be lying and guilty, and I might not be a killing class.

Well, mnowax did say that if Blazerunner is town that he should die in Blaze's place. If all he had were tells, no matter how convincing, he wouldn't put himself in front of the firing squad like that, I don't think (whether he's town or scum[/i]). [TSS]

It is WIFOM, IMO. If he is guilty as I claim him to be, maybe he just wouldnt do it, but maybe he is just doing this so people think "scum wouldnt expose like that", and he hopes I am in fact guilty, so when I get lynched and my role is revealed, no one will have reason to doubt his claim.

[Occult]

VOTE ARMLX

[armlx]

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Funny how you dont even consider mno might be lying and guilty, and I might not be a killing class.

Meh, irrel for the purposes of that list. Not like either of you is a recruiter.

[curiouskarmadog]

VOTE ARMLX

why arm over blaze, viking, or Mno?

[armlx]

VOTE ARMLX

I enjoy the large font, but cap locks is not valid reasoning.

[Blazerunner]

EBWODP

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Funny how you dont even consider mno might be lying and guilty, and I might not be a killing class.

Well, mnowax did say that if Blazerunner is town that he should die in Blaze's place. If all he had were tells, no matter how convincing, he wouldn't put himself in front of the firing squad like that, I don't think (whether he's town or scum[/i]). [TSS]

It is WIFOM, IMO. If he is guilty as I claim him to be, maybe he just wouldnt do it, but maybe he is just doing this so people think "scum wouldnt expose like that", and he hopes I am in fact guilty, so when I get lynched and my role is revealed, no one will have reason to doubt his claim.

[Occult]

VOTE ARMLX

why arm over blaze, viking, or Mno?

I'm wondering that myself..... what I meant to do is

Unvote

Vote silent speaker

.

[Occult]

VOTE ARMLX

I enjoy the large font, but cap locks is not valid reasoning.

Yes, it can be valid reasoning.

[Blazerunner]

EBWODP² lol clicked "submit" instead of "preview"

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Funny how you dont even consider mno might be lying and guilty, and I might not be a killing class.

Well, mnowax did say that if Blazerunner is town that he should die in Blaze's place. If all he had were tells, no matter how convincing, he wouldn't put himself in front of the firing squad like that, I don't think (whether he's town or scum[/i]).

It is WIFOM, IMO. If he is guilty as I claim him to be, maybe he just wouldnt do it, but maybe he is just doing this so people think "scum wouldnt expose like that", and he hopes I am in fact guilty, so when I get lynched and my role is revealed, no one will have reason to doubt his claim.

the bolded part shuould have been out of TSS' quote.
Just correcting, later I will post more

[Occult]

After re-looking over his posts, TSS is very single-minded from the get-go and is looking to lynch blaze. He's not looking at any other possibilities or situations, just trying to lynch Blaze. That kinda tunnel-minded approach is scummy to me.
He is also a little too coordinated with Mno and to completely trust someone on the first day always makes me a bit uneasy.

I easily see a TSS/Mno match up.


on the other hand I haven't liked blaze's defense very much....

[NabakovNabakov]

Sup everybody

First, a point of order:

You are a Vigilante. You may attempt to kill one other player at night, but

you may not attempt to kill two nights consecutively.

You win when any threats to the town are eliminated, or if you join a cult before its takeover is inevitable.

Bold is going to make the game substantially more difficult for town (assuming we have a vig in the first place) and makes it less likely that last night's kill was a vig kill (unless our vig is unusually ballsy/stupid)

At first, I was tempted by the info offered by the Mno-Blaze dichotomy. One of them must be scum, so lets lynch 'em both, right? But then you realize that "Cultafia has no scum" is more than just a nitpick. If Blaze killed DGB, he's probably the SK. Yosarian makes a good point about the usefullness of an SK to the town, and while I don't think it would necessarily be detrimental to lynch the SK at this point, our energy would be better spent in concentrated pursuit of the cult leader(s). If Blaze didn't kill DGB, Mno is likely a recruit. I thought of this as a brilliant gambit before armlx shattered it with the idea that Cult v. Cult makes sacrifice non-ideal, but there's no guarantee that Mnowax thought of that before he committed himself to the play. I can't honestly conceive of any other network of lies that would yield results better than the two above situations.

If we go the route of lynching Mnowax and/or Blazerunner, we won't receive the standard reward (that an anti-town faction will be permenantly out a member). We will either make an insignificant dent in an elastic cult or kill a potentially useful neutral faction. There are no scum in Cultafia.

That's what makes me wary of Vikingfan's 158. He's very clearly thinking in the standard-mafia mindset. Whether this is on purpose, I don't know, but he'd have to be pretty oblivious to not pick up on the fact that there are no scum in Cultafia before making it central to his posting.

FOS: Vickingfan