Large Normal 208 - Fireworks Festival [End]

[AxleGreaser]

I’m still leaning

You still are not answering or addressing 5267 in anyway at all.

You answering those at the very least is critical to working out your VCA is worth anything at all.

My impression is you slapped it together without actually thinking much about it. Whether you did that as town or as scum who already knew who they wanted to lynch is the question i am trying to work out. You not actually directly answering my questions is not helping.

I know responding to 5267 does not effect your reads, (I did that on purpose to make it easier for you to admit how wrong headed it is)

but it will allow me and other people

to decide whether or not the rather large errors and glaring omissions in how you went about your VCA is you

scum painting your reads, (making your evidence fit your read, not working a read out like a towny would)

or

This is an explanation that might explain why town!IaI is fitting facts to theory

Axle i hated playing with you last game. You frustrated me as town, power role town that got me undue attention and an early claim/exit as I recall. (note I havent checked what happened yet busy, and it probably did.)

but i am finding it so hard to get responsive answers to my issues with his read and how he got it.

so you answering those questions is critical to working out if your actual reads and all that VCA you did is worth something or is actually quite scum indicative of you.

That you are continuing not to directly respond to my questions but cling to your scum read of me like it is a life raft is very troubling.

[AxleGreaser]

@Thread

Important information about IaI VCA that he made earlier today.

As per my discussion above, and the detailed very clear example in 5267 that discussion is not progressing well or effectively.
I am not happy with the responses and or the lack of them.

but the problem is much larger than that. IaI did rather lot of VCA, it looks like it was claiming to be working the game out.
It clearly was not.

If the game could be worked out by just looking at VCA as he did then there would be no need for all the other words in the game. He did not seem to look at any of them when drawing his conclusions.

The rest of the VCA is also fatally flawed and very unreliable. Even using just or only the VCA points of the game that he chose means you would suffer from a statistical phenomena known as selection bias.

I cant emphasise enough how unreliable that IaI VCA is. Despite however superficially "

good

" it looks to you. Poke into the conclusions and see for yourself if more evidence allows other possibilities that he failed to consider at all. I did I found quite a number for many of the points.

I chose to talk to him about the lucky example, because i wanted to gauge how desperate he is to hang onto the appearance that he had done the VCA well when it is patently clear from that example he had not.

[AxleGreaser]

Axle what I think you are missing is the fact just because you didn’t get lynched as town in the last flower game despite that play style doesn’t mean as scum, you could properly properly reflect that play style and not get lynched.

That’s the hard part about this game as mafia...faking play and having it come off as townie.

So saying it was a personal choice to change your play as town is not believable to me, aka this play style change is AI, unless you show me a scum game where you properly mirrored your town play from the flower festival.

Make sense?

No not much at all.
It does sound like you trying to defend your position as plausibly town...

What it does not in pretty much anyway do is defend your claim as true and thus one you believe and want acted on.

Things that are missing that ought be there.

Spoiler: a list

originally when you claimed my style had changed between Flower Festiville (several years and games ago BTW...)(so not real surprising) you described it confrontationally as "*****". I agreed my style has changed. Well I hope it has as i tried to change it as per the geriatric mafia players thread and as per my earlier reasoning.
I did explain what specific changes I had intentionally made between this game and my last as i didnt in anyway believe you could be claiming I must play like I did several games ago or be scum.
You did not dispute that those were the style difference you were talking about or claim there were others.
You still have not stated how this game is specifically different in style.
You have used the word

tunneling

to describe my previous play ( I prefer to describe my play as beign focussed on and pursing my reads.) I ahve point ed to the evidence that you put in the thread that I am still doing that this game.

basically your claim is now 100% evidence free.

The only thing left is you claiming it is plausible you still hold that read and it is not you scum painting me like Trojan.

Sorry about this list I like to be clearer about it but RL time is pressuring me today.
TLDR: there are absolutely zero details about what the change is that you claim is scum indicative. Even the one descriptive word "tunneling" that you did yuse for the other game and hence imply I am not here is contrary to the actual evidence.
So no your claim makes no sense as you have not even defined style chaage that you claim exists then shown that it does. I cant see how as towny making a case you missed that step.

Your utterly unrealistic demand for evidence is rejected out of hand. (as absurd.)
My playstyle has been growing and evolving over time. It also depends on the situation i find myself in, in terms of other players experience and the setup.
According your metric/reasoning every game I have ever played with style that tended not to get lynched, is scum indicative .And that bollocks as in many games I played with small style differences like i described before I was town.

[Transcend]

Bruh if i wanted to read a book, i would go into a library.

[Transcend]

Iwonder which has more words

War and Peace? Or Axle's ISO?

[pienyan]

I am freezing the deadline at 4 days as Sauce seems to be having issues with his account not being activated. The deadline will resume when this is resolved.

Resuming deadline; deadline is now set at November 29, 16:50 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2017-11-29 16:50:00).

[pienyan]

votecount 6.4

Not voting (7) - Transcend, I Am Innocent, AxleGreaser, Lucky2u, Whiskers, Nero Cain, Sauce

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is November 29, 16:50 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2017-11-29 16:50:00).

[Lucky2u]

Iwonder which has more words

War and Peace? Or Axle's ISO?

Have you not seen Whiskers? They are both hard to read.

[Nero Cain]

Because oyu were the one who suggested it and argued it.

So? Changing one's mind isn't necessarily scummy. My g/f changes her mind like every 30 seconds, is she scum?

What are you talking about? If the setup is 3/15 the argument doesn't apply, so it doesn't warrant lynching the other the next day.

I mean, if Lucky got lynched and flipped town then and then the game is still ongoing all it does is prove a 3/15 setup.

I'd like to hear more about your reads. I'd also like to hear your response to 5308.

You were the first person to say "oh hey 4 scum" and then you attacked anybody who disagreed like "in what world do we have 3 scum there's clearly 4"

I haven't attacked anyone. :/

What's a "powerful" town PR role to you????

powerful is subjective. All the power roles are "powerful" in thier own right but as a setup I'm not seeing the massive amounts of power that you do. We have shit all for investigation and the jailkeep + 2 masons amounts to 2 IC's after one of them flips. Oh and a 1x day vig gives us a second lynch. This feels almost like a mountainous.

[Nero Cain]

17 players are 1 scum for every 4.6 players. Is a 1 for every 5 really that different?

Why only consider me and Lucky for a lynch?

15/3 = 5 to 1 ratio
14/4 = 3.5 to 1 ratio (same as newbie game)

I’m still perplexed why town Nero is so pushing 3 scum over 4 scum and why town Nero would have taken a chance to early vote when this could be LyLo.

Also not a fan that the person he presumably risked the game on by voting early isn’t even a current suspect.

Earlier he pushed me and nauci when I suspected nauci most of the game. Then later when I voted axel he pushed it as a distancing or bussing vote. Now he doesn’t even suspect axel anymore.

I’m still leaning axel/Nero/one more...whiskers or flair/sauce

In my last game with a town IaI, I had suspected him and then he OMGUSy tunneled me until I backed off and solved the rest of the game. The only difference here is that he went

EONS

without OMGUS scumreading me. So it feels similar but different at the same time. OMGUSY death tunneling could potentially come from scum as well.

IaI, both you and Whiskers keep pointing out the similarities between this and a newbie game-me question is-you are using the 3.5:1 ration for newbies but why is that a better indicator of the setup than the 4.6:1 in a large 17 player normal?

[I Am Innocent]

I am not familiar with the 4.6:1 ratio. Is that one example or are you suggesting that is standard? Cause every newbie game is 3.5:1 and that ratio usually lines up for most mafia games I play in***

When and why did your axel scum read go away?

*** I mean there is always extremes. I played in a 12:2 game, but then again the scum had a mafia vig (2 NKs a night) and mafia backup vig.

[I Am Innocent]

Axel I’m not going to read those walls. One or two sentence questions please.

Whiskers not ignoring you either. Need to get back to my notes to see your early posts which I didn’t like. I do remember not liking your back and forth with Joey, and especially hated your newbie defense of nauci when they first entered the thread, esp after ur earlier newbie <> town hypocritical comment. Also felt there were many associative tells between you, beeboy, and nauci, tho I have to see if those still hold water for you and beeboy now that nauci flipped town.

And yes, I think there is merit when so many people scum read a player yet they are impossible to lynch. See the speed of naucis wagon as a counter example

[Sauce]

Judging by the way the Math wagon lost steam on day 3 in between the votecounts that lead to nauci's becoming dominant, Transcend, Nero and Lucky were the ones responsible. Lucky's vote was naked, and the post that followed was a response to Smocaine's setup spec. Would scumLucky rather come up with something relevant to say or just elaborate on something useless someone else said?

VOTE: nauci

Town loses on a mislynch today tbh.

Wait what

How does the math on that play out

If we mislynch tonight we'll have at least 6 town left tomorrow, and it might be Mylo tomorrow?

The post immediately after doesn't sound townie, but more like a bad attempt to cover being called out for trying to shift the blame on Rhah

If you're town, you should make a renewed effort to hang math. Why do you trust Rhah's read on the slot?

I don't feel like Rhah has post anything with nearly so much certainty other than math is town and TIAM is mason with him.

I have a theory for why but would rather not talk about it.

[Sauce]

@Nero could you link the 4.6 ratio'd setups you're talking about? 3.5 sounds like a more probable ratio for a mafia game than 5, nevertheless the shorter days and daytalk would render it equivalent to 4.5 -4.6, which still sounds town-favoring to me, but then again I'm new to this site. Still, my estimate stands and others seem to have similar views, and since you voted Lucky for an extended period of time it's sensible to narrow down the lynchpool to you two.

[Sauce]

Judging by the way the Math wagon lost steam on day 3 in between the votecounts that lead to nauci's becoming dominant, Transcend, Nero and Lucky were the ones responsible. Lucky's vote was naked,

and the post that followed was a response to Smocaine's setup spec. Would scumLucky rather come up with something relevant to say or just elaborate on something useless someone else said?

VOTE: nauci

Town loses on a mislynch today tbh.

Wait what

How does the math on that play out

If we mislynch tonight we'll have at least 6 town left tomorrow, and it might be Mylo tomorrow?

The post immediately after doesn't sound townie, but more like a bad attempt to cover being called out for trying to shift the blame on Rhah

If you're town, you should make a renewed effort to hang math. Why do you trust Rhah's read on the slot?

I don't feel like Rhah has post anything with nearly so much certainty other than math is town and TIAM is mason with him.

I have a theory for why but would rather not talk about it.

There

[Sauce]

I somehow thought Lucky wrote Nauci's posts. Would still lynch Lucky.

[Transcend]

My g/f changes her mind like every 30 seconds, is she scum?

Qotg

[Transcend]

Sauce has been aiite so far

[Transcend]

VOTE: NC's girlfriend

[Sauce]

Let's not forget the Jk jailed Nero.

[Sauce]

Sadly mafia don't really need to achieve a mislynch if there are still 3 left. Therefore we need to regard anyone who fails to be constructive in consolidating a lynch as mafia and not hesitate to vote there.

[Lucky2u]

This game is getting under my skin finally. Someone be town so I can sheep the rest of this day away.

[AxleGreaser]

More one or two sentence questions.

Axel I’m not going to read those walls.

So that pretty much puts an end to you discussing this with you pretending to be a good faith actor/participant.
I will point out that what is being discussed in those posts is the veracity of rather large number of words and post that you made. But now for some reason you are not prepared to do any more analysis or justify your analysis at all.

Wanna tell me protown reason for that reluctance expressed above?

It means for instance you are unwilling to examine any alignment indicative evidence at all. Unless it is one line glib, rhetorical Q's, or leading Question style, BS such as yo put in your VCA.

One or two sentence questions please.

Umm TBMK I already, lierally did that. The pink highlighted questions you skipped were that short. They ask you about your thought processes. You are refusing to describe them. One really obvious reason you would do that is if they don't exist, so you can't.

Please also note IIRC, all the recent questions so far have been one or two sentence

questions

. They were even colour coded so as to make them really easy to find, just in case you(or someone else) wanted to skim the all as the BS of your VCA was already obvious to the reader.

So you could always try just reading the pink one sentence questions and actually answering them. Is there any reas on that as town if you want one sentence questions and to not read the walls you dont just do that?

I feel obliged to warn you doing that without the surrounding context would be excpetionally bad play as either alignment. However as scum you might see it (such blatant stonewalling) as your only plausible way out as you have no real answer to the posts at all. Your hope as scum would be that you get read as titled town.

TLDR:

but mainly this:

So that pretty much puts an end to you discussing this with you pretending to be a good faith actor/participant.

@thread yeah I am not now really expecting a responsive answer to these either.

[AxleGreaser]

This game is getting under my skin finally. Someone be town so I can sheep the rest of this day away.

I think you may be fresh out of luck, Lucky. (sry)

When I look at the rest of the thread and then for each player factor in how strong my TR/lean is and how skillful and well reasoned I think their reads are. I don't see anyone Id could in good faith sheep.

Also, it would be nice if you tried to keep treading water and actively work the game out... as that is a bit AI.

[Transcend]

Pick me