Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[SensFan]

I've been rereading, and I'm willing to believe that both Korts and CES are town. I propose we lynch Jeru and make 2 pairing plans. If Jeru turns out scum, we pair ourselves and leave SF free so he can investigate. If Jeru turns out town, we leave either Korts or CES free and have the other block SF to prevent a nightkill.

I don't think we should lynch SF because like everyone's already said, we have more to lose by lynching him, and more to gain by keeping him alive if he's cop. It's better to confirm him by lynching Jeru.

Also, we'll never agree with each other on the pairings if we all make suggestions. I think we should let either CES or Korts decide, since everyone's more or less agreed that they're both town.

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[ting =)]

I agree that, if the odds of me being scum were the same as SF being scum, that you have more to lose by lynching the claimed cop, but in the situation we're in, it's simply preposterous not to lynch him today. Do actually read the thread and deal with the information we have at our disposal. The odds are far from equal. Do I have to say it again - PR IN A MINI-NORMAL DOES NOT HAPPEN. Period. Honestly, I'm going to spend some time looking through the rules and see if it's even permitted.

I'm willing to believe it actually. As it is, more than HALF the players are town roleblockers. That alone makes the town powerful, especially since we ended up finding out right after day 1. At the moment, we as the town already have the power to permanently whack the mafia nk ability.

It only makes sense that if we have any other role, like a cop, he'd have to be at some sort of disadvantage. The town would be way over powered otherwise. Heck, even cop-less we're already more powerful than town in other games.

Also, just to bring up an old argument, SF as scum would have no reason to fake a PR. As it is, it pushed him to the spotlight and made him the easy day 1 lynch. Not a very good job as scum if he really is scum.

[ting =)]

Oh, also, if you turn up town and SF is in fact lying scum, the moment we block each other in pairs, we'll end up locking him and the rest of the scum. No one else will die from nk. We'll be able to just pick everyone apart day 3, and plan night blocking strategies so that we'll either keep the scum permanently in stasis, or make it so that they can't nk without raising a red flag.

[Korts]

Just dropping in for a moment. I'd say we have two pairings, one with SF blocked and one with him unblocked, in case jerubbaal turns up town, because who knows how long twilight's gonna be this time?

[jerubbaal]

I'm willing to believe it actually. As it is, more than HALF the players are town roleblockers. That alone makes the town powerful, especially since we ended up finding out right after day 1. At the moment, we as the town already have the power to permanently whack the mafia nk ability.

It only makes sense that if we have any other role, like a cop, he'd have to be at some sort of disadvantage. The town would be way over powered otherwise.

Heck, even cop-less we're already more powerful than town in other games

.

Also, just to bring up an old argument, SF as scum would have no reason to fake a PR. As it is, it pushed him to the spotlight and made him the easy day 1 lynch. Not a very good job as scum if he really is scum.

Um, I'm pretty sure we're all roleblockers, except the mafia (presumably). Just for the record, you're all assuming that you can completely lock out the mafia NK for good. Unless you plan on stopping lynching, the scenario is going to change every day when someone dies. Hopefully, we can keep things so that the scum don't NK, but there won't be a stasis. We don't have a cop, so keeping everything in stasis is not a desirable outcome.

Also, just some speculation on the setup, but a cop would be completely broken in this scenario. Ting's bolded quote above is completely true. Khel already made this scenario more breakable than it probably should be, giving the town the ability to completely turn off the scum NK, but a living cop in stasis is auto-win for the town (and no, a PR would not negate this advantage). Khel didn't do this. I haven't been hugely impressed with his modding job here, but he's not stupid.

I sent an email to MeMe asking if PRs are permitted in mini-normal games. After combing the wiki, the definition of a mini-normal is "Games of twelve players or less, without special themes or game mechanics." Looking over the list for roles approved in normals, nothing is every mentioned about PRs. The way you define normals is that anything outside these guidelines of approved roles makes it a theme game. A PR is definitely outside the usual guidelines. I'll give the official answer when I get it back from MeMe.

You all need to actually think about this more deeply than "OMG, we're lynching a claimed cop!!!" This is why I advocated lynching him day 1 - testing him requires lynching someone else day 1 (who was a townie) and then testing his (of course) guilty results day 2 by lynching a townie. So yay, we finally get him day 3 when he should have been so completely dead day 1.

Do you really think that SF would do a good job as scum? Seriously, look at his posting so far. He's not the brightest bulb in the box.


I actually have an interesting question for Khel - What will happen in the event that we refuse to lynch and the scum NK is turned off? Will that actually be a draw?

[SensFan]

He's not the brightest bulb in the box.

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[jerubbaal]

It's not a personal attack to comment on someone's skill at the game. It influences any evaluation of you and your actions significantly. Yes, I'm being somewhat derogatory, but get some thicker skin. Learn to take some criticism.

[SensFan]

It's not a personal attack to comment on someone's skill at the game. It influences any evaluation of you and your actions significantly. Yes, I'm being somewhat derogatory, but get some thicker skin. Learn to take some criticism.

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[Imat]

Jeru, I'm thinking you completely misread the normal game rules. No special themes or game mechanics makes it a normal and having special themes and games mechanics makes it themed. Is a PR really that themed? I'm thinking no, not at all. Its not something that is found in themes, such as "LotR" or something like that, specifically. Therefore its NOT a special theme or game mechanic as described by the rules.

[Imat]

EBWOP: replace specifically with exclusively.

[Xylthixlm]

"Cop with post restriction" is definitely not a normal role. Then again, there can be unusual roles in normal games, as long as they're not too common.

Personally, I would say that an all-roleblocker setup

is

too strange to be in a normal game, but that's what we've got.

[jerubbaal]

A PR is a game-mechanic, however you want to color it. It influences an individual's ability to post, and potentially carries with it the danger of being modkilled. So yes, I would say that it qualifies as a non-standard mechanic. I'm still waiting on the response from MeMe.

I would tend to agree with you, Xyl. This seems more experimental than normals are supposed to be. Regardless, I'd like to get a solid ruling on the PR thing.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

A PR is not a game mechanic, unless everyone has one. Now, it's just a part of one's role. It's still unlikely, mind you.

Also,

Certain setups which satisfy all of the above might still be better suited as theme games. Examples include Texas Justice, NYPD Mafia, and Hospital Mafia,

in which all the innocent roles were the same.

The setups of these games fit the guidelines outlined above, but their experimental nature makes them more suited to be run as theme games.

I very much doubt this setup is even normal to begin with.

[jerubbaal]

Are post restrictions permitted in mini-normal games?

Yes -- a couple of more "interesting" roles are permitted, just keep the fanciness to a minimum and make sure you don't write in a theme to go with your restriction.

Ok, apparently they are permitted, but I still don't see how such a PR actually functions in this game. The intricacy of the claimed PR certainly doesn't keep the "fanciness to a minimum." Regardless, the odds of a cop being in this game are precisely zero. It's already broken enough, Khel wouldn't completely break it.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Long post is long:

First, a suggestion for pairings: The point is to try to keep the scum separated, no? So how about everybody votes for the people they think are most likely to be scum? If we manage to get all the scum (hopefully no more than three) in the top four, we're golden. If we pair 1-8, 2-7 etc we pair who we collectively think is scummiest with the one we collectively think is least likely to be scum, which makes sense to me. If we decide to go for a no lynch, the least voted person would (obviously) be the one without a "partner".

I'm not sure if this an altogether better variant than voting for pairs, but it seems cleaner. The largest flaw with that plan is, I think, if scum manage to manipulate the voting enough to put scum at place four and five.

I *think* it would be best if we rank all the players (except SensFan, if we want him to investigate) according to scumminess and give them the corresponding points value (IE, the scummiest get eight points, second scummiest gets seven points etc) and total that amount (alternative would be to vote for the X scummiest people and giving them one point each). I believe that would be beneficial because we outnumber the scum, but for now that's an educated guess, because I don't have the math for it. (The reasoning would be something about a higher combined total of point would average out better and be harder to influence, I think.)

If we do this, I suggest we do it popcorn style, giving the scum less chance to be able to cast their votes in a way that would push one of their scumbuddies out of the top four and into a a spot where they'd be teamed up with fellow scum.

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As for whether to lynch or not... I really only have one problem with not lynching, and that's that it'd give scum a higher chance of avoiding a block because someone has to go unpaired:
Chance of locking down the scum (with eight people): (1)*(6/7)*(4/6)=24/42=4/7 (about 58%)
Chance of scum locked down with nine people: (8/9)*(5/7)*(3/6)=40/126=20/63 (about 32%)
Figures are ([number of "safe seats"]/[total number of "seats"] for the first scum)*(numbers for scum #2)*(numbers for scum #3).
Oh, and all this is on the assumption that there are three scum (and that SensFan isn't one of them) and that everyone else is a roleblocker. If there's another role out there (a real cop or an SK for example), the odds drop to (7/8*5/7*3/6=35/112) about 31% or (7/9*4/7*2/6=28/189) about 15%. Those are not good odds.

(Note that I earlier claimed scum would have a 5/8 chance of not being blocked with eight people; I think this was a mistake on my part where I counted pairs instead of "seats".) If anyone spots a mistake here, please tell me.

That's random chance, mind you, and hopefully we can do better by not pairing up randomly. Still, the risk is about twice as high with one person unblocked.

Even if we don't lynch: the moment either Jerub or SensFan dies, the other one is confirmed as scum/town (with the possible exception of SensFan bussing Jerub, but in that case we'd still be up a lynch and would find out that SensFan lies when we lynch the next one.) Right now, based on likelyhood of a PR in the first place combined with someone claiming cop day one and then immediately finding scum etc, I'd estimate the chance of SensFan/Jerubbaal being scum to be something like 70-30, assuming there's no bussing going on. If we lynch one of them, I'd

still

rather it be Jerubbaal, entirely based on the added benefit of a confirmed cop over the benefit of a confirmed townie/roleblocker. On a similar note, we'd be in a better position if we no lynch now (and every day after that while SensFan investigates) but the odds of us successfully blocking are lower with nine than ten people. I'm not sure which is best.

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Regardless, the odds of a cop being in this game are precisely zero. It's already broken enough, Khel wouldn't completely break it.

Hmm. That's not a bad point. Mind you, I could easily think of roles that would unbreak the scenario even with a cop (EG unblockable scum/SK, a Godfather, what have you). Ugh, the complexity of all this combined with the fact that this is supposedly a normal game is pretty much giving me a headache. Maybe we should just apply Occam's razor and lynch SensFan already. Or maybe see if we can get moved to the theme park?

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Lastly, since nobody seems interested enough to do a vote on revealing night actions, I'll just reveal mine and get it out there: I blocked Joubert. Ting and Shanba, what were your blocks?

[Khelvaster]

I actually have an interesting question for Khel - What will happen in the event that we refuse to lynch and the scum NK is turned off? Will that actually be a draw?

I didn't want to put this in the rules at the beginning of the game because it would be very suggestive, but here's my modnote: If this game would turn into a mountainous mafia, I would mod it as such, using deadlines if necessary. I wouldn't allow passage to night, since night would really only be a way for mafia to talk.

Of course, one or even two no-lynches wouldn't be anything bad, as long as the town still had a plan. If the plan became to refuse lynches, however, I'd start going into mountainous mode.

[Khelvaster]

Oh...and please stop trying to game the mod. I dislike speculation about how the town should act based on whether I am an awful mod or not.

Or maybe see if we can get moved to the theme park?

I have between 0 and 2 roles that would be considered nonstandard, and my flavor is mafia-flavored, so I will fight to keep it as a normal mini.

[ting =)]

Regardless, the odds of a cop being in this game are precisely zero. It's already broken enough, Khel wouldn't completely break it.

I disagree. Besides what cavebear said about other roles unbreaking the game, I think that SF having a PR is to his favor. He has nothing to gain faking it, and there'd be no reason for a scum or a vanilla to have a PR.

@cave - I blocked joubert too.

I disagree about the no lynch. I think we need to lynch jeru, just to make it an odd number and also to confirm SF. I'm with cave that there's a possibility that SF is scum bussing Jeru, but I don't think so. Jeru wasn't under that much flak day1. If SF is scum, he just makes it worse for his team to put Jeru under the spotlight.

we pair who we collectively think is scummiest with the one we collectively think is least likely to be scum,

Also, I disagree with this. This is the reason I considered random assignment as viable. If we all throw in our ideas on the pairings, it's possible that a scum might make a suggestion to pair himself with another scum, and that would screw us over. I'd rather doing it randomly than collectively deciding, but I've been swayed to the opinion that either Korts or CES should do the pairing.

[jerubbaal]

I'm getting really, really sick of posting the same thing over and over again. Do any of you actually read the thread? The PR SF has claimed is an entirely useless one in this setup. Khel is trying something rather experimental here, he's not going to screw around bastard-modding us as well. Adding a cop does completely break the scenario, and if the scum had a counter to the cop, it would have been used night 1. There is absolutely no reasonable scenario in which SF could be cop and this still be even a remotely balanced game.

Actually, I had not thought of it before, but if we lynch SF, we've basically won. There are two remaining scum, and three fairly confirmed townies (Korts, CES, and myself). From there we can just lynch the unconfirmeds and get all the scum, if we can successfully lock down the kill. Plus, if a kill does occur, it won't be difficult at all to deduce where it came from and, as long as we keep a confirmed townie in the loose spot, we'll be fine.

[SensFan]

he's not going to screw around bastard-modding us as well.

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[Cavebear with a toothache]

I have between 0 and 2 roles that would be considered nonstandard, and my flavor is mafia-flavored, so I will fight to keep it as a normal mini.

Sorry, that wasn't an entirely serious proposal. I didn't mean any disrespect.

Adding a cop does completely break the scenario, and if the scum had a counter to the cop, it would have been used night 1. There is absolutely no reasonable scenario in which SF could be cop and this still be even a remotely balanced game.

Well, there could be a Godfather, that seems like an easy inclusion that would unbreak the scenario. There could be several Godfathers. And/or an unblockable SK. Or unblockable scum and SensFan is still alive just to mess with us. Hell, you could be an unknowing Miller for all we know. Anyway, there are several ways this could be constructed that does not result in us breaking the game.

Actually, I had not thought of it before, but if we lynch SF, we've basically won. There are two remaining scum, and three fairly confirmed townies (Korts, CES, and myself). From there we can just lynch the unconfirmeds and get all the scum, if we can successfully lock down the kill.

No. I'm not willing to lynch a possible - even if he's unlikely - tool to make this game easier, even if there are Godfathers and Millers. If we can get results on everyone, let's get them.

Plus, if a kill does occur, it won't be difficult at all to deduce where it came from and, as long as we keep a confirmed townie in the loose spot, we'll be fine.

This, however, is true. Kills should be reasonably easy to figure out. I'm not willing to put you in the loose spot, though, and I don't consider you a "fairly confirmed townie" no matter how many times you repeat it.

[Korts]

Though it pains me to say such a thing, I don't understand something. How is CESc confirmed? I accept that I was foolish after lovo's lynch, and this confirms me up to a point, but CESc? I may have missed something.

Also, I need feedback. We need two pairings, no? Who knows how long twilight will be this time.

[SensFan]

Though it pains me to say such a thing, I don't understand something. How is CESc confirmed? I accept that I was foolish after lovo's lynch, and this confirms me up to a point, but CESc? I may have missed something.

@ Korst: Are you a roleblocker

too

?

[Korts]

Oh yeah, I see. I thought he was only referring to lovo being one.

[jerubbaal]

Korts, both you and CES made comments which alluded to a counter-claim after lovo's lynch, it makes me very confident that you are both town.

And once we lynch SF, I'd like to think that I'd be on the list of confirmed-ish townies. It should be easy to see why bussing a scumbuddy is auto-lose for SF as scum. If I were scum and got lynched, even though it would "confirm" SF for the meantime, as soon as one of his "guilty" verdicts led to a townie lynch, he would go too. It's the absolute surest way to lose this game as scum. So yes, I'm pretty sure I'm confirmed after this, as long as you guys aren't idiots and actually follow SF's verdict.

And a PR would have absolutely no function in this scenario whatsoever. It doesn't add to the quality of the game at all, so yes, it would just be in here to screw with us.

Yes, there are ways to make the cop less, like the whole GF thing, but you still fail to acknowledge that SF would be dead if he were actually the cop. Also, this is clearly an experimental game. Khel is trying out the all-roleblockers thing. As has been said before, the ability to lock down the scum kill is already a huge advantage for the town, very much on par with the normal balance for 12 people, perhaps even skewed slightly to the town's side with just RBs. Adding a cop breaks it in half.

Just look at the numbers for nightless. That's probably the nearest analogy to this scenario. There are always more scum to account for the loss of the NK (consider 12 man mountainous as the base-line, 2 scum and 10 townies, balancing works outward from there).