Cultafia: Game over

[Norinel]

Vote Count 7

Blazerunner [4] (the silent speaker, mnowax, malthusis, vikingfan)
mnowax [2] (Blazerunner, mypenguinkat)
Greggo [1] (NabakovNabakov)
vikingfan [1] (curiouskarmadog)
the silent speaker [1] (Occult)

Not Voting [6]: Greggo, vollkan, stark, Yosarian2, armlx, springlullaby

8 to lynch

[malthusis]

I want to go with viking's 'kill a scum either way' tactic but the fact that neither mnowax or blaze hasn't claimed yet is making me a little leery of doing that.

After re-looking over his posts, TSS is very single-minded from the get-go and is looking to lynch blaze.

TSS could be a Cult Recruiter (or a another SK, but I doubt that) just trying to get rid of competition.

Wax's statement of 'I could be wrong' makes him either a Watcher or a tracker, or just a really cunning recruit.

States he believes Mno, but no reason why. Then sets up a lynch chain...please viking, why couldnt this go the other way, lynch Mno and if he is town lynch Blaze?

Why would you want it to go the other way? Do you not trust Wax or is it something else?

[Yosarian2]

Observation 1: Blaze kind of looks like a SK right now. He might or might not be, but that's less important to this argument, as the cult(s) wouldn't necessarally know if he is or is not unless he's a cult member.

Observation 2: The SK is a big theat to the cult. If the SK tries to kill and fails, he'll know it was the cult leader he targeted, and will probably either get that person lynched or kill them the next night (since the cult leader is also a big threat to the SK). And the cult has no way of dealing with the SK other then lynching him or just having a big cult in endgame; he can't be recruited and takes two nights to kill

Conclusion: Cult leaders/members are likely to get onto Blaze's wagon after Mnowax's claim.

So, based on that logic,

vote:malthusis

.

Malthusis, you completly ignored the whole "is lynching the SK a good idea" discussion, while keeping your vote on Blaze. Do you think lynching the SK day 1 is a good idea for the town? Could you explain exactally why you're voting him? Your motives here are unclear to me.

[Blazerunner]

Great post from Nabakov, really sums things up.

I hadnt noticed Vig cant kill twice in a row, I dont know if everybody else was aware of that.

About me and mnowax, it is brilliant, although armlx had said that in other words. I didnt do this earlier, after armlx pointed it out just because I didnt think of anyone to vote yet.

Meh, irrel for the purposes of that list. Not like either of you is a recruiter.

I dont think so, your guess seems loaded. By doing that you are considering I can only be a killer, and mnowax can only be pro-town, like he couldnt be a cultist gambiting.

FoS:armlx

for this, not considering he can be guilty and thinking it is irrelevant or unreal that I said I didnt kill him.

I agree with you that sacrificing isnt good for cultist with 2 cult factions, but perhaps, as Nabakov said, he didnt think of this earlier, or he is so sure I am a killing class that he thinks he wont have to sacrifice himself. That is, suposing I am telling the truth.

I can see some link between TSS and mnowax, too, their play is very similar. Both say to be 100% sure I am guilty, TSS believes mnowax for an WIFOM reason "He wouldnt put himself on the line", and mnowax neither claims, nor he says his reasons for thinking I killed DGB are in the game, nor the oposite, like "it has to do with my role and my night choice, bt I cant reveal it". He is just not going anywhere.

fos: TSS, mnowax
unvote

I will consider what to do with my vote, even being like 99% sure mnowax is guilty (but I confess you cant be that sure, cause from your point of view the liar could be me), he is probably not a good lynch, and I dont know wich of the other 2 mentioned should be voted [/quote]

[vikingfan]

NN, two things. First, though there are no mafia in Cultafia, there are bad guys (i.e. scum). I don't see how using the phrase scum is bad when it's used to refer to the generic baddie.

Second, are you actively disagreeing that it is probable that one of mnowax or blaze is a baddie? From my viewpoint, it's extremely probable- the only question that I see being actively debated is whether to do it today or to do it day 3 or 4.

One final point: everyone says we should be spending time looking for the cult leaders. Personally, I'm wondering how the cult leader(s) would be playing this (presuming that neither mnowax nor blaze is one). would they be more likely to hold back and blend in the crowd, or go heavily after the group? I'm thinking blending in, for the moment...the cult leader wants to avoid suspicion at all costs, especially day 1.

[armlx]

You said it yourself: He could be a cultist on a gambit. Last I checked, we wanted to lynch cult

recruiters

not cultists (aka

recruits

). We've been over this. The odds a cult leader would have balls that big to just out and fake claim on the hope we don't lynch either of you for this reason are between 0 and -infi.

The scenario I didn't write up is if Mno is a recruit you are technically a mystery box, but mystery box is still low odds of being the non-Mno recruiting recruiter.

[Blazerunner]

You said it yourself: He could be a cultist on a gambit. Last I checked, we wanted to lynch cult

recruiters

not cultists (aka

recruits

). We've been over this. The odds a cult leader would have balls that big to just out and fake claim on the hope we don't lynch either of you for this reason are between 0 and -infi.

The scenario I didn't write up is if Mno is a recruit you are technically a mystery box, but mystery box is still low odds of being the non-Mno recruiting recruiter.

I agree that, by a "lynch the recruiter" point of view, neither of us should be lynched. But the way you put, it seemed like we were proven to be one of those.

[NabakovNabakov]

NN, two things. First, though there are no mafia in Cultafia, there are bad guys (i.e. scum). I don't see how using the phrase scum is bad when it's used to refer to the generic baddie.

Second, are you actively disagreeing that it is probable that one of mnowax or blaze is a baddie? From my viewpoint, it's extremely probable- the only question that I see being actively debated is whether to do it today or to do it day 3 or 4.

One final point: everyone says we should be spending time looking for the cult leaders. Personally, I'm wondering how the cult leader(s) would be playing this (presuming that neither mnowax nor blaze is one). would they be more likely to hold back and blend in the crowd, or go heavily after the group? I'm thinking blending in, for the moment...the cult leader wants to avoid suspicion at all costs, especially day 1.

Ah, but discussing specific situations in terms of "generic baddies" sucks out important nuances. The differences between mafia, cult, and SK are important, and when we have a semi-open setup and know what groups we're dealing with, we should use that knowledge to our advantage.

Odd behavior on both sides makes me suspect that something's up with one or both of the featured players, but what's the point of gambling when the payoff is in wooden nickels?

The last point is sound. Lurker Census!

-mypenguinkat has been essentially MIA, only showing up to drop a vote on Mno

-Greggo and springlullaby both have fewer than 5 posts

-CKD has been posting less than I would meta him at

[curiouskarmadog]

Many thanks for joining Nab and you are right...this is one of about 4 games I am in that I havent had time to really post in because other games have been heating up...if you push the meta further you can find those games I am speaking of.

Praying that I get some time to actually address these games.

Know, that I am still reading and up to date on the thread, happy with my current vote.

[mypenguinkat]

unvote

[mnowax]

this is my final statement of information. 70% of why i think blaze killed DGB was something that he said that confirmed info that i have. 25 % of the reason why is due to my own night actions. 5% is pure gut.

[armlx]

Not impressed. Still on the Blaze is SK and shouldn't die today wagon.

[NabakovNabakov]

unvote

More please. Don't think you can get by in this game without explaining yourself.

[the silent speaker]

Armlx, I find it interesting that you say mnowax can't be the recruiter. I had been thinking that maybe he

was

the recruiter, and he tried and failed to recruit Blazerunner last night and that's the vague role info he was claiming. If he hits a sK, he looks like a genius; if he hits an opposing Cult Leader, his coast is clear; if he hits a steadfast, he'll need a lot of fast talking come Day 2 but at least he gets one steadfast role down. I fail to see what a plain recruit would know about Blazerunner; surely he wouldn't claim mystery information on his own recruiter. (After all, if he succeeds in getting him lynched, mnowax becomes strictly weaker than a vanilla SK.)

With mnowax's continuing recalcitrance -- and Blazerunner's points on how much a pro-town role would know about the SK's activities -- I'm uncomfortable enough with him to

unvote: Blazerunner

.

Blaze, it is not WIFOM because faking it is suboptimal play for both town and scum equally to make. It costs either side too much, against too little gain, to be volunteered when the alternative is simply not volunteering it. It can't

be

used for brownie points, not once established that he's got nothin', so it is not a case of WIFOM. And remember that I found you scummy regardless.

As for my 'single-mindedness' on Blazerunner, I sent out a probe and it struck gold. (I remain convinced of this.) What's there been for me to change

to

?

[vollkan]

this is my final statement of information. 70% of why i think blaze killed DGB was something that he said that confirmed info that i have. 25 % of the reason why is due to my own night actions. 5% is pure gut.

Even if I were convinced that blaze killed DGB, can you explain why it would be in the town's best interest to lynch blaze? I presume you hold that position, given the location of your vote.

[Greggo]

mnowax, what was it that blaze said that confirmed your night actions? I have asked you this question before and I did not get an answer.
No second chances. Logically,

vote:mnowax

[mnowax]

ionce again i can not say what tipped me off today. If you believe that DGB is a SK that needs to stay alive, then i will tell every one who i am, and why are the reasons why i konw what i know and surmised.

[Occult]

Armlx, I find it interesting that you say mnowax can't be the recruiter. I had been thinking that maybe he

was

the recruiter, and he tried and failed to recruit Blazerunner last night and that's the vague role info he was claiming. If he hits a sK, he looks like a genius; if he hits an opposing Cult Leader, his coast is clear; if he hits a steadfast, he'll need a lot of fast talking come Day 2 but at least he gets one steadfast role down. I fail to see what a plain recruit would know about Blazerunner; surely he wouldn't claim mystery information on his own recruiter. (After all, if he succeeds in getting him lynched, mnowax becomes strictly weaker than a vanilla SK.)

You could say the same about yourself...

Plus you seem to be distancing yourself from Mno all of a sudden. You went from trusting him pretty fully to now your uncomfortable with him. The only difference on this page from the last page is that you have two people connecting you and Mno together.


On mno, he isn't helping the town, he's just hiding behind a suspicious soft claim, I see him as a recruit.

[vollkan]

ionce again i can not say what tipped me off today. If you believe that DGB is a SK that needs to stay alive, then i will tell every one who i am, and why are the reasons why i konw what i know and surmised.

I was quite clear in what I wanted you to tell me:
Why is it to town's advantage to lynch SK-DGB?

This has nothing to do with your role or your reasons - it's a simple matter of theory.

[armlx]

TSS: I can't even explain how bad that play would be. Its terrible on so many levels such as A) if its a cult leader hes going to have to explain why they would kill and why there was no SK kill, B) there's most likely more than 2 (SK+ other cult leader) steadfasts, so its losing odds on hitting the SK and C) he is claiming it so poorly people wanted to lynch him.

I'm actually with Occult here. Also of note: You still vote Blaze despite all the evidence of why he's not a good lynch. This looks too much like the old you setting the ball for Mno to claim and rush a lynch if people pile on Blaze.

Vote TSS

[NabakovNabakov]

ionce again i can not say what tipped me off today. If you believe that DGB is a SK that needs to stay alive, then i will tell every one who i am, and why are the reasons why i konw what i know and surmised.

Baby steps please. Why would we have to jump from maddeningly vague soft-claim to full claim? What does that jump even have to do with if we beleive Blaze is an SK or not? Why can't you just tell us what tipped you off and let us draw our own conclusions?

[the silent speaker]

You could say the same about yourself...

I'm not claiming info. I'm claiming suspicious reaction to light pressure.

Plus you seem to be distancing yourself from Mno all of a sudden. You went from trusting him pretty fully to now your uncomfortable with him.

Not only is this unfair as my supicions on Blaze predated mnowax's assertions of info, it is untrue as I expressed support of armlx when he cautioned

against

trusting mnowax fully.

And I thought you were upset that I was single-minded? Which am I, too dogged or too switchy?

TSS: I can't even explain how bad that play would be.

I never said I thought it was

good

play. Just that I can't imagine what a recruit would hope to gain at all.
[/quote]B) there's most likely more than 2 (SK+ other cult leader) steadfasts so its losing odds on hitting the SK [/quote]
You think so? I guess one townie and one mason. Even odds on good/evil, if not on SK/non-SK (but he might be gambling on the town celebrating too much over hitting a cult leader to lynch him, or something) and if it

is

a hit then he stands a good chane of driving Blazerunner into a panic.

and C) he is claiming it so poorly people wanted to lynch him.

No argument here, but that's after the fact.

Also of note: You still vote Blaze despite all the evidence of why he's not a good lynch.

Look again.

[NabakovNabakov]

This was directly above Mno's softclaim.

Speaking about hammer, I have a question to mod: How long will twilight last, from the hammer to the death, when the person lynched cant speak anymore? (not exactly, just an estimation). I need to know this in case I get hammered, and for the reason above, and even regardless of people's alignment (the people not posting might all agree Im scum and vote me in quick succession)

I forgot to comment on this in my replacement post, and I'm surprised nobody else really picked up on it (do our eyes go fuzzy once someone addresses something to the mod or something?) Asking about being able to talk in twilight would only make sense if Blazerunner had something to talk

about

. If he wasn't asking just to satisfy curiousity, this can mean one of two things:

1) He had information he would want to impart
2) He had instructions he would want to give

Despite how convincing the SK hypothesis may be, neither 1 nor 2 would support it. Even if an indpendently alligned SK had information (gained through a failed kill perhaps) it would do him no good to inform the town after he's already been lynched, and it goes without saying that he would have no one to instruct.

But perhaps I'm making too much of this.

@Blazerunner: Care to explain?

@Mnowax: Is this what prompted your softclaim?

[armlx]

Wow, good catch there Nab.



TSS's last post seems a lot like he's trying to buddying up to the people attacking him, especially as he cites me as someone he agree with on Mno being incorrect when I didn't even care about that possibility until Yos2 brought up that even if Mno isn't lying Blaze isn't a good lynch.

I never argue with D1 role based lynch reasons unless there's a VERY good reason, and Mno definitely implied he had that.

[Norinel]

FYI, I'd prodded stark a few hours ago. (And am posting this now to bump the vote count.)