Newbie 569: (Game Over)

rolandgarros · Post Post #350 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:03 pm

Batt wrote: Letting the newbs play it out? I know your an IC and you are trying to get the noobs to learn the ropes, but doing nothing, you might as well not even be in the game. Plus you weren't away for 4 days, but you said you were just not following the game for 4 days. What if there was a problem, would you be able to help with it?

Well, was there a major problem?

Batt wrote: This is just something I caught, NOT a real reason for scumminess, its just nit-picking, but interpret as you will the bolded parts. He's saying he's playing scum by laying low.

Because I would tell the world that I'm scum if I am one? Do tell me there's another interpretation of what I said -__-

Batt wrote: I don't see the merits of this gambit, could you explain them? What if he didn't react satisfactory, what would that tell you and what would be unsatisfactory?

Unsatisfactory would be reacting quite radically to my gambit. In other words, I tried to make him uncomfortable so as to shake his confidence; if he had lost his composure completely, then that would tell me that something clicked after being forced out of his comfortable spot. If he had lost his composure, then that would tell me that either he is very annoyed scum or unconfident townie.

My gambit, while it can be seen as a scumhunting tactic, a rather nonconventional one at that, is more of a challenge to Vamp. He was basically taking control of the thread, and someone needed to challenge his confidence to see if he would buckle and break or at the very least take the game from being solely in his hands and spread it to more people and get more people into the game. I think it has worked because your post Batt as well as the responses to the banter between me and Vamp have actually added to the game.

Batt wrote: What was wrong with the above post by Vamp?

Only one, and that is the latter statement. My exaggeration is still part of my gambit.

Batt wrote: posts after lynch= scummy. You were distancing yourself from the lynch. That points to scum in my book.

Distancing myself from the lynch that I had no part of? I never voted nor did I ever see QX as number one scum. The highest he ever got was number two, but after his posts that made no sense at all, I figured that QX was just out of his mind. Being retarded doesn't exactly equal 100% scummy. In fact, I think I was the only person giving QX the benefit of the doubt.

Batt wrote: Then today you voted. A vote, if both scum were on at same time and you or sonic were not scum, could have resulted in end game. Then you backtrack saying it was a mistake.

Because it was a mistake. I came back from 3 days up in the mountains running a retreat at around 9 PM yesterday. I posted at around 10 or 11 PM. I'd like to think pure exhaustion and lack of sleep would be the reason behind that mistake.

thevampireofdusseldorf · Post Post #351 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:30 pm

Guys I would like all of your thoughts on why you Think claus was the nk choice,
And soon I will post a joint roland batt post.

rolandgarros · Post Post #352 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:00 pm

Well if you see it from the context that sonick may be scum, then the choice on claus would make a lot of sense, seeing as claus is the only one that really pursued sonick for a while.

thevampireofdusseldorf · Post Post #353 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:15 pm

I wish to have your opinion on why claus was the nk choice from whatever/asmany angles as you like, oh and happy scumday! (what is a scumday?)

rolandgarros · Post Post #354 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:19 pm

Whoa!!! Haha I just realized I've been playing mafiascum for exactly a year now ;D

Oh and I'll post a more holistic analysis after I finish editing this video.

Chickenfish · Post Post #355 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:07 pm

thevampireofdusseldorf wrote:Guys I would like all of your thoughts on why you Think claus was the nk choice

To me he seemed to have made his stand as town, and was probably the most useful player (when he was around).
As for the current situation, all that stood out to me was

roland wrote:Distancing myself from the lynch that I had no part of?

Having no part of it IS distancing. I'm inclined to look at the people not voting as opposed to those voting, as scum often do want to stay off the lynch as it is hard for them to find a good time to vote.

Battousai · Post Post #356 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:12 am

rolandgarros wrote:Well if you see it from the context that sonick may be scum, then the choice on claus would make a lot of sense, seeing as claus is the only one that really pursued sonick for a while.

But by that logic, it is pretty WIFOM. Sonic is an obvious choice for a lynch day 2, along with CF as they were both very scummy the previous day. Then Claus was NK'd after wanting a sonic day 2 lynch. It could be Sonic, or it could be someone who wants us to think it is sonic. I think everyone would gain from a Claus NK if they were scum, some more reasonable than others.

Sonic: Claus supported day 2 lynch of him
CF: Looked suspicious in almost everyone's eyes, needed to divert attention
VAMP: WIFOM of sonic
Roland: Appeared somewhat scummy to vamp and claus (from chart he was third choice)
Battousai: WIFOM of sonic

Now to do an anaylysis of Sonic and CF

Battousai · Post Post #357 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 8:04 am

You wanted a list of players and thoughts, Claus?
Alrighty then. Going back through some posts here and there and rereading them closely, I don't have any major opinion about anybody right now. Yes, this is extremely wish-washy, I know, but I came up with this:

Chickenfish: I'm not trying to "buddy up" with Claus when I say this, but yeah, you're a bit hotheaded as of late. Why such a big argument over the context of OMGUS? He seems really hung up on it but meh. However, some of his points against Quitex, I have found valid, although the comments like "reality check" seem to be a bit unnecessary and irrelevant in my opinion.

Battousai: A little quieter than most everyone else, save for Roland, but not lurkish. Not much of an opinion here. He hasn't said a whole lot as of late from what I remember, which makes me wonder, but whatever.

Claus: I definitely think you know what you're talking about seeing as you're an IC. Not much opinion. I'm wishy-washy.

Quitex: Your statement "The crap of "scums won't give themselves away" its just what it is: crap" I disagree with. Scums wouldn't give themselves away, would they? It's highly unlikely, unless they're playing some sort of super-reverse-psychology and it works. However, I don't really have much to say

Rolandgarros: Your lurkful (if that's a word. :^P) behavior is a bit shady in my opinion, like others have mentioned. But that's the only real opinion I've got on you.

Vampire: I think you've got good questions & intents, despite what Chicken says. I'm sorta leaning to the side that doubts you are scummy, although it's very possible that I'm wrong.

This is my most "wishy-washy" post in the game. I don't have much real opinion at this point. I don't think I was paying as much attention to the game as I should have, but I am focusing now.

Not paying much attention? This is page 8, half way into the game so far. By this time you should have had enough information to be not so wishywashy.

201-

I don't agree with you there, Quitex, although it may be a bit off subject. Claus mentioned earlier that you have to think of a move through the eyes of both a scum and a town, and try to see the reasons behind either case. Therefore, to catch the scum, town MUST think as scum, right? Also, I'd like to make clear that this is NOT defending or buddying up with CF, only saying an opinion.

You seem to have said you weren't defending someone or buddying up with someone an awfully lot. Which strikes me as you are overly trying not to make people find reasons to lynch you. I find it to be somewhat of a scum tell, along with being overly defensive.

215-

And is a prod on Claus really necessary? He said he was gone on another trip, right? Or is my mind backward?

The town would want all of its members to be able to post daily, and not wanting Claus to come back seems iffy.

333

You said this was written before the lynch, but the lynch happened before you could post it. I'm with vamp on this one and will say that is usually scummy, but I see nothing that would not have been written before the lynch except the last paragraph where you mentioned the hammerer vamp.

saving time- I left out a bit of the first half of the day, as all of those posts were already disected by other members and he responded to them. Anyone who has reread the day has looked at them.

Battousai · Post Post #358 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:02 am

27-

Claus wrote:
I personally don't like random voting, because I don't think that random vote generates any info to the town. It is a copt-out.

For instance, you say you are pressuring "sonic", still your vote is on me. Don't you think that this is a bit contradictory?

Don't you think the fact that you say it doesn't generate info, and then go on to begin a discussion based on it is a bit contradictory?

Starts going after Claus for being contradictory, which he wasn't really. Forms an opinion that Claus is scum branching off of this. (post 33)

41-

Battousai wrote:
FOS:sonic

Why would you put claus at L-1? There has been very little contribution so far, only page 2. A townie would not try to go for a lynch this soon. I know your a little new, but try not to make a mistake like that, it could cost us a quick lynch.

Claus was at L-2 for long enough that everyone but quintox and roland could have placed the third vote and the hammer. So, what I can gather at least one of the following is scum: Claus, chickenfish, sonic, quintox, roland, or less likely TVD since he dropped his vote.

That doesn't narrow it down much now.... If only roland and quintox posted before now.
UNVOTE

This post is pretty much entirely wrong, except for the bolded bit, which actually contradicts the rest of your argument.
L-1 is perfectly acceptable this early, because the only person who would hammer is scum, so they would have to reveal themselves to do so, and as such would actually help the town. also, with Claus being L-2, if the mafia BOTH hammered, then they have once again revealed themselves except it is totally game over, so that would never happen either. That was possibly the least logical post I could imagine. FoS: Battousai

You wouldn't mind if Claus got quicklynched, is what I interpreted from this post. Claus, an IC could be lynched by scum, yes or an anxious noob. We would have been in a predictament because the second day we would be down AT LEAST one IC who wasn't appearing scummy and be in Lylo with no information to gather. If the hammerer was a townie, then only one townie would have to vote to lynch him then it would be game over.

111-

Quitex wrote:
THATs specifically is the reason. Look: You both are hiding in the fact that no one will be too stupid for hammering. So you get your hands clean when telling that "town is not wanting a lynch and scums won't be able to be called out".

You are going to look mighty silly when it is revealed that I am in fact town (whether it be due to lynched, NK, or end of game) and you see that I am not in fact 'hiding in facts' but 'stating facts'. Unless, of course, 2 of you, sonic, and Claus are scum (which I believe you and Claus are). So either way you either don't know what your talking about, or your getting your frustration about the fact that you haven't been able to lynch anyone out on me by trying to make it look like my problem. It is highly possible there has been no lynch yet because 2 of the people who are high on people's suspicion (you and Claus) are scum.

Roland: Very useless post. "you are going to look might silly when I am town". First of all there is no overwhelming pressure that you will be lynched, so there is no point to say this. Plus, as far as I know, saying something to the effect of "you'll be wrong when I'm dead" is a slight scumtell

I agree with Roland's post

126-

Claus wrote:
I see your posts as a jumbled mess - If you are scum, you are trying to hide the wholes in your logic by shouting very loud and waving a lot. If you are town, this exercise may help you see if there is something wrong in your logic.

Also, can you tell me how my posts are a jumbled mess? They are set into paragraphs each relating to a seperate issue. How could I make it neater? Perhaps if I didn't check for typos and spoke in broken English like Quitex you'd understand them better? Once again, how can you accuse me of something like that when it isn't even apparent, and yet turn a blindeye to the fact that Quitex's posting is, in fact, a jumbled mess

Getting overly defensive on your posts, putting attention away from scumhunting and onto another subject. Did this with the OMGUS with QX

136-

@vampire: Do you find it convenient to not be placed in a team, so that you can pretty much do a bunch of fence sitting? You don't actually seem to be contributing much, just rehashing other peoples points then asking questions that don't actually help us find scum. FoS: vampire

Now you say vamp, who was actively scumhunting, a noncontributer for only asking questions based on other posts. I find this strange as asking questions is a very direct and great way to acquire information from townies and scum alike. Maybe you would like not to be asked questions so you could more easily lie and post what you would like, no?

309-

Can I point out that we were actually close to a lynch, then you guys went off on 2 pages of one line posts about nothing. vampire, you said you can back out of it at any time: back out. You guys aren't helping us find scum, so just stop. Same goes roland, if you want to teach vampire something I think you've probably made whatever point you were trying to make - so come out with it so we know what you were doing. Otherwise stop wasting time...

Seems a little anxious for a lynch. Vamp wasn't wasting time, since roland was acting very scummy, so he pursued it. Initially, I saw this as distancing from a scum lynch, but since QX was the cop, my post is voided a bit.

355-

thevampireofdusseldorf wrote:
Guys I would like all of your thoughts on why you Think claus was the nk choice

To me he seemed to have made his stand as town, and was probably the most useful player (when he was around).
As for the current situation, all that stood out to me was...

He made his stand as town? What happened to him being scum.

Just found another possible reason Claus was Nk'd, it doesn't directly go at anyone though. Claus and QX were thought of as a team by vamp and cf, and possibly others. Maybe the scum were using vamp's "teams" and did not want to break up any of the three teams so since QX was lynched, they killed his teammate.

Chickenfish · Post Post #359 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 12:39 pm

He made his stand as town? What happened to him being scum.

I was really the only one who ever thought Claus was significantly scummy, and towards the end of the day I wasn't so confidant. If everyone but ONE person thinks someone is town, I'd say he'd made his stand as town.
Also I was never sure where I had OMGUSed QX, can somebody point it out? Or are we taking QXs ramblings as facts now?

sonickid01 · Post Post #360 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:20 am

I'm here guys, but I can't post right now. I'll try and come back later to post again, but I can't at the moment. Expect something from me around the afternoon or evening, I guess.

Mr. Flay · Post Post #361 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:23 am

Superfluous Day Two Vote Count:

Not Voting - 5 (sonickid01, thevampireofdusseldorf, Chickenfish, Battousai, rolandgarros)

With five alive, three votes will be enough to lynch.

Battousai · Post Post #362 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:43 am

I was talking about the issue you had with QX with OMGUS.

Chickenfish · Post Post #363 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:32 am

Battousai wrote:I was talking about the issue you had with QX with OMGUS.

Sure...
I just think I should point out that in every game I've played that has reached lylo someone who was really quiet the rest of the game suddenly becomes quite active in trying to find scum, and EVERY time that person has been scum. It makes sense really - make sure nobody suspects you, then come out and lead the town into a townie lynch
I'm lookin at you batt

Battousai · Post Post #364 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 5:40 am

I've been posting once a day like I have been, except this weekend when I posted a little more because I had free time and needed to do a player analysis or whatever you want to call it, on the 3 most scummy people IMO. Roland, for his recent posts more than anything, and sonic and cf who have been very scummy throughout day 1. In no way did I try to lead the rest of the town towards a lynch. The only thing I done was try to narrow the town's focus onto 3 people (obviously I didn't include myself since I know I'm town) when at least 1 of them is scum.

sonickid01 · Post Post #365 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:35 pm

OK, so it'll sound like I'm just making excuses, but yesterday my internet died and it just came back. :^P

Vampire wrote:sonickid01 wrote:
Like I said, that's just my thoughts before Vampire hammered.

Again as with roland I would like to mention post event posting (especialy after a lynch) is highly dunious, In this case I am inclined to believe that this was mostly true and done before night but at the same time if you are scum you can slip in whatever you like knowing it will be read in a new context than the one you had intentioned it to be seen in.

sonickid01 wrote:
I had a wierd sense that Qx was cop

Was it just a sense or were there things that Qx did or said which gave you suspicion of him being cop.

I just copied and pasted what I'd written before the hammer on Day 2. I didn't try and change anything- it's my pure thoughts. If you find something you think I might have changed, then please point it out to me.

I dunno why I had that sense. Something just clicked in my head, I guess. I don't know exactly how cops act typically or anything, so I don't know how I knew in the back of my mind. Some sort of instinct told me he might be the cop; I have no idea why or how. But that's besides the point and not relevant.

Roland, I don't see how that's overly protown. I just was stating that something in my mind told me that he was a cop. I know that was irrelevant and probably not worthy of posting, but what makes you think it was overly pro-townish?

Um... Vampire? I don't quite understand what you're saying here:

nice move by sonic to debunk this theory of Qxs by trying to say claus is scum (lies) and I am his partner (also lies I am town), hmm funny as I was in the last vote with claus at L-1.

How could I lie if I didn't know that Claus wasn't scum? That's not a lie, that's an incorrect guess. I'm not a fortune teller if that's what you're implying.

Alrighty then, so my guess as to why Claus was nightkilled? Probably to draw because he was pretty protown. It would make me seem shady as well. I would be the obvious choice for a Day 2 lynch. The most obvious choice at this point for a lynch, of course, is me then. However, I think that I'm being framed. If I were to think of another possible person other than myself who might have killed Claus, it would be Chickenfish. A few people found him pretty suspicious as well early game. It would help to frame me and/or trap the town in WIFOM.[/quote]

Chickenfish · Post Post #366 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:18 pm

sonickid01 wrote:Alrighty then, so my guess as to why Claus was nightkilled? Probably to draw because he was pretty protown. It would make me seem shady as well. I would be the obvious choice for a Day 2 lynch. The most obvious choice at this point for a lynch, of course, is me then. However, I think that I'm being framed. If I were to think of another possible person other than myself who might have killed Claus, it would be Chickenfish. A few people found him pretty suspicious as well early game. It would help to frame me and/or trap the town in WIFOM.

however, the fact that you pointed that out now makes it a WIFOM for you being scum as well, because you may well have NKed Claus to be able to set up this scenario...

Batt wrote:I've been posting once a day like I have been, except this weekend when I posted a little more because I had free time and needed to do a player analysis or whatever you want to call it, on the 3 most scummy people IMO. Roland, for his recent posts more than anything, and sonic and cf who have been very scummy throughout day 1. In no way did I try to lead the rest of the town towards a lynch. The only thing I done was try to narrow the town's focus onto 3 people (obviously I didn't include myself since I know I'm town) when at least 1 of them is scum.

More of the concern though, is that your posts have had a lot more content than usual, as you were more or less a non-entity on day 1. I do realise you aren't trying to 'steer the town', and maybe my phrasing was exagerrated.
Look at it if you are scum: You look at the '3 dodgiest players' - you now have the 5th (not yourself or those 3) person on your side. now one of the people you've chosen is your buddy. Now all you have to do is convince the 5th person that either of the other 2 townies are scum, and then that person votes and you win.
This is how it's gone in most games I've played, and that's why I'm suspicious of you.

thevampireofdusseldorf · Post Post #367 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:40 pm

@Sonic well if you look at Qxs statement that you and cf were a scum team and that was why scum didn't hammer claus the only real way to try and disprove this was to say claus was scum (as did chicken). And your next post after saying claus and me we a scum team you say lynching claus would point out one of two scum.......as I mentioned before this is wierd to go from claus being scum to claus being town (hypotheticly) from one post to the next just to help your defence. If you thought claus scum then wish to say even if he is town that still means im innocent is a bit wierd to me.
As for the main reasons claus was hammered I find three possible answers but first I will look at what others said

Battousai wrote:Claus: Wasn't directly in any recent "scuffles" or acting pretty scummy, so my guess would be he was killed to keep suspicion on roland, vamp, sonic, and/or cf.

rolandgarros wrote:Well if you see it from the context that sonick may be scum, then the choice on claus would make a lot of sense, seeing as claus is the only one that really pursued sonick for a while.

Chickenfish wrote:To me he seemed to have made his stand as town, and was probably the most useful player (when he was around).

Battousai wrote:But by that logic, it is pretty WIFOM. Sonic is an obvious choice for a lynch day 2, along with CF as they were both very scummy the previous day. Then Claus was NK'd after wanting a sonic day 2 lynch. It could be Sonic, or it could be someone who wants us to think it is sonic. I think everyone would gain from a Claus NK if they were scum, some more reasonable than others.

Sonic: Claus supported day 2 lynch of him
CF: Looked suspicious in almost everyone's eyes, needed to divert attention
VAMP: WIFOM of sonic
Roland: Appeared somewhat scummy to vamp and claus (from chart he was third choice)
Battousai: WIFOM of sonic

sonickid01 wrote:Alrighty then, so my guess as to why Claus was nightkilled? Probably to draw because he was pretty protown. It would make me seem shady as well. I would be the obvious choice for a Day 2 lynch. The most obvious choice at this point for a lynch, of course, is me then. However, I think that I'm being framed. If I were to think of another possible person other than myself who might have killed Claus, it would be Chickenfish. A few people found him pretty suspicious as well early game. It would help to frame me and/or trap the town in WIFOM

Now my two reasons are:
Killed because he was onto a scum in sonic and was deemed too hard to sway to another belief.
Killed because both sonic and cf (especialy) believed him to be scum and built a rather sketchy defence around this re the L-1 issue so they become framed.

Reasons I do not believe (at least not on their own):
Killed to keep suspicions on everyone except batt (batts idea)
Killed because he was the most usefull player (cfs idea)

Now from this I have 3 possibilities:
1. Sonic is scum, Claus went down to swim with the fishes as he was seen as too dangerous as an IC who was very confident in sonics scuminess. Killing claus would certainly make him look suspicious but then the whole WIFOM and framing thing can be used, from what I have read WIFOM is a favourite trick of scum.
Who would he be partnered with well it would be tempting to say CF but again having claus killed implicates CF as well and I find it hard (not impossible as both have a WIFOM defence) to belive scum would knowingly bring suspicion on both of themselves with a nk.
So very possible roland or batt, I'm leaning more to batt on this as he mentioned the whole WIFOM thing with sonic rather heavily.
And your day one I think Qx could be cop thing I find highly scummy. If you were a townie you wouldn't mention I think someone could be cop as this gives scum a guide on a nk, but then qx gets lynched and you seem to burry your qx could be cop thoughts under the mounting suspicion on Qx.

2.Roland and Batt are a scum team. The NK of claus sets them up very nicely to have sonic or cf lynched and game over. Batt and roland have been suspicious of each other day two where as day one they both had rather pro town feelings for each other. Rolands exchange with me towards the end of day one could have been an attempt to give bat something to find him legitamitly suspicious of.

3.Cf and roland or batt are scum. Agan the nk is to bring suspicion on sonic as one town lynch is game over. The fact that cf is implicated in the same manner is ok as both roland and batt are rather free from any obvious guilt over the claus lynch.

Now these mention the 6 possible scum teams in 3 different scenarios (of course Im not included) everyone has 6 possible scum pairs to work with, 3 if they have a very good feeling someone is town, but this could be dangerous if you have got it wrong as it decreases odds from 50% to 33%.
I will post more about both roland and batt soon.

Battousai · Post Post #368 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:52 pm

More of the concern though, is that your posts have had a lot more content than usual, as you were more or less a non-entity on day 1. I do realise you aren't trying to 'steer the town', and maybe my phrasing was exagerrated.
Look at it if you are scum: You look at the '3 dodgiest players' - you now have the 5th (not yourself or those 3) person on your side. now one of the people you've chosen is your buddy. Now all you have to do is convince the 5th person that either of the other 2 townies are scum, and then that person votes and you win.
This is how it's gone in most games I've played, and that's why I'm suspicious of you.

From the scum's POV, ya, that does sound like a good idea. If I'm scum the next game I play (and none of you are in it) I might try that. The reason for more content, might just be that I have more to go off of than day 1. And honestly, do you think vamp has a good a chance as being scum as some of the other players. If he is scum, he's very good at it IMO. Day 3, however, if we are both alive I will definately have to comb through the days of whoever else is left, along with vamp, to figure out who is the last scum.

Reasons I do not believe (at least not on their own):
Killed to keep suspicions on everyone except batt (batts idea)

Where did you infer that from, 4th quoted text? If so, I said he was killed mainly to keep suspicion on sonic, cf, and/or to a little degree roland.

batt on this as he mentioned the whole WIFOM thing with sonic rather heavily.

I didn't mean to lay it on think, but I wanted to address the issue from both sides since this is the most important lynch so far. A lot of people were thinking WIFOM I bet, I was just the first one to address it thoroughly.

thevampireofdusseldorf · Post Post #369 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:17 pm

Battousai wrote:But by that logic, it is pretty WIFOM. Sonic is an obvious choice for a lynch day 2, along with CF as they were both very scummy the previous day. Then Claus was NK'd after wanting a sonic day 2 lynch. It could be Sonic, or it could be someone who wants us to think it is sonic. I think everyone would gain from a Claus NK if they were scum, some more reasonable than others.

Sonic: Claus supported day 2 lynch of him
CF: Looked suspicious in almost everyone's eyes, needed to divert attention
VAMP: WIFOM of sonic
Roland: Appeared somewhat scummy to vamp and claus (from chart he was third choice)
Battousai: WIFOM of sonic

Anyone could have killed claus for a WIFOM thing with sonic, yet you only mentioned it with me and yourself. I also note you have a rather strong read on me as town and wish to focus on the three other player. This is kinda wierd but I can understand the logic as if you ar right you have a 66.666% chance of hitting a scum but if wrong you drop down to 33.333%, now for someone who likes numbers this is an interesting risk given it is no risk if you are scum and might have been done to try and get me or someone else to do the same thing. I would like to give someone the town status for today with a good deal of certainty but the result if wrong is too much to take. I can understand me being the easy target for town but this worries me (very wierd being worried about labeled town).
It would only be a good idea to do this if the feelings were reciprocal and as it stands they are not.
Now if you rule me out you have left 3 scum teams can you give a supporting argument for all 3 as to why/how they could be scum.

Battousai wrote:Claus: Wasn't directly in any recent "scuffles" or acting pretty scummy, so my guess would be he was killed to keep suspicion on roland, vamp, sonic, and/or cf.

As mentioned.

Battousai · Post Post #370 (ISO) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 7:07 am

What three teams are you talking about? And no, I have not ruled you out as being town, but for today, I would like to focus mainly on the three scummiest people from my POV. Tommorrow will be different.

Chickenfish · Post Post #371 (ISO) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 11:35 am

Hey all I'll be away over Easter, sorry

thevampireofdusseldorf · Post Post #372 (ISO) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 11:52 am

Ok batt you haven't ruled me out but only wish to focus on 3 people and leve me out for today. So out of your 3 people you are focussing on, you know one to be scum. I'm not really convinced that this is a good town move or scum move but I will leave it for now.

Battousai · Post Post #373 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:03 pm

Well, in mafia you have to take risks (gambits, lynches...), and I'm taking a risk by focusing on three people instead of 4. Originally there is a 50% of getting scum today 2 out of 4, but then if you decide to focus on three, the chances are either cut or increased 16.6%. That's not a good risk, but if you add in additional information (how scummy is the 4th person) and the chances of cutting the percentages is decreased or increased. To me, you have a 20-25% of being scum. If I take that into consideration then if I focus on only 3 instead of 4, the chances of lynching scum 66.6% instead of 33.3% is 75% to 80%. I am willing to take that risk.

thevampireofdusseldorf · Post Post #374 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:29 pm

Batt I can see the logic in this and I would like to support this but I could only do that if I thought you were town also. My biggest worry at the moment is deciding if you would do this as town or as scum, as town I can see the pay off but as mafia you would only need to get me on your side to vote one of the three suspects you have focused on. Again if I bank on you being town I have the same odds as you at my disposal, but if I am wrong that is basicly game over.
Lylo situation I find it difficult to do this and also find it kinda suspicious you would decide not to consider me as a possible scum.
So 65/35 scum/town ratio on you.