Cultafia: Game over


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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:10 am

Post by Norinel »

Vote Count 9


Blazerunner [3] (mnowax, malthusis, Occult)
the silent speaker [1] (armlx)
mnowax [1] (Greggo)
Greggo [1] (NabakovNabakov)
vikingfan [1] (curiouskarmadog)
malthusis [1] (Yosarian2)
Occult [1] (Blazerunner)
mypenguinkat [1] (vikingfan)

Not Voting [5]: mypenguinkat, the silent speaker, vollkan, stark, springlullaby

8 to lynch
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:12 am

Post by Occult »

NabakovNabakov wrote:Occult: I'm not sure I understand your post. Are you saying he's backing off the claim? He's not, he's just realizing it was a stupid move. Your vote reads more like OMGUS than anything else.

Mnowax: I'm not sure I understand your post. Elaborate please.
He seems to be playing some sort of gambit to me. Townies don't have any reason to lie like that, If he was pro-town I can't see how he would have thought that would be helpful it just adds confusion (which doesn't help the town). Taking it back doesn't help, it just adds more confusion (Again, anti-town). There's also no way in hell an SK would pull that kind of stunt.

While I do think we should get some more info. out of this day before we hammer someone, I'm incredibly comfortable with lynching Blaze by the end of it.

In response to Blaze's accusation, he's wrong I had meant to put TSS for some reason I wrote Armlx and forgot to preview the post.


Check the Underlined Portion:
Occult wrote:
what I meant to do
is
Unvote
Vote silent speaker
.
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:51 am

Post by NabakovNabakov »

I think it's pretty clear to most people that Blaze is a recruit, the question is just whether or not he's worth lynching. That's what Vollkan was bringing up, but you seemed to think it was enough to prove he was a recruit in order to justify his lynch. It goes beyond that.
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:11 pm

Post by Occult »

NabakovNabakov wrote:I think it's pretty clear to most people that Blaze is a recruit, the question is just whether or not he's worth lynching. That's what Vollkan was bringing up, but you seemed to think it was enough to prove he was a recruit in order to justify his lynch. It goes beyond that.
I personally think there is a slight possibility that he could be more then a recruit. Plus, confirmation of him being a recruit wouldn't exactly hurt the town either. If he turns out to be a recruit we can look back at the posts and perhaps get an idea of who he's with. It just seems to me he was trying to come up with something big (not exactly sure what that was as it was kinda muddled) and it felt like more than just a recruit attempting to save his ass.



I'm also just curious at the sudden drop off in interest to lynch him. I personally am finding it a bit ridiculous. He pulls a gambit and we seem to be letting it work. Before he claims, he is the perfect lynch to a good portion of the players:
Guardian wrote: Blazerunner [6] (the silent speaker, Greggo, armlx, mnowax, malthusis, vikingfan)
and now after he says, "well you got me, I'm in the cult." everyone suddenly drops their vote?
Norinel wrote: Blazerunner [3] (mnowax, malthusis, Occult)
We have a very good lynch here, I say we look at the connections between Blaze and other players before we lynch him but I don't see how we can let Blaze live.
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:32 pm

Post by vollkan »

Occult wrote: I personally think there is a slight possibility that he could be more then a recruit. Plus, confirmation of him being a recruit wouldn't exactly hurt the town either. If he turns out to be a recruit we can look back at the posts and perhaps get an idea of who he's with. It just seems to me he was trying to come up with something big (not exactly sure what that was as it was kinda muddled) and it felt like more than just a recruit attempting to save his ass.
It won't "hurt" the town directly, but the wasted opportunity is a cost.
Occult wrote: We have a very good lynch here, I say we look at the connections between Blaze and other players before we lynch him but I don't see how we can let Blaze live.
If he has been recruited, somebody knows he is their recruit. Thus, we can look at somebody's reactions to blaze - and blaze's behaviour back.
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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 4:02 pm

Post by NabakovNabakov »

A recruiter and a recruit wouldn't have a chance to discuss, but they would both know each other. The Recruit PM has a spot for the name of the leader.
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 4:57 pm

Post by mnowax »

well here we go. Tell us your recruiter, and we will let you live. If not , you will be lynched. Understand?
Sure one more time for fun.
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:51 am

Post by Norinel »

Prodding malthusis and mypenguinkat. Also prodded stark yesterday or so and forgot to mention it in-thread- he's picked up the prod since then.
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 5:50 am

Post by vikingfan »

and yet stark has yet to post in this game
major fos
.

Something to consider about not lynching blaze is that if we lynch him, we almost certainly nail a cultist/cult leader (I don't see him as SK) without revealing anybody else's alignment (with the possible exception of mnowax). If we go after somebody else, we open ourselves up to the possibility of lynching town (which would be bad, especially if we found a steadfast role, since the SK would obviously kill it). So the question is whether we are better off killing somebody who is probably a recruit but not the leader or whether we go the more risky way and somebody else who may be a leader but also may be town.
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 6:17 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

I think at this point, the best bet is to lynch someone else and have the vig kill blaze. It's better to bandwagon someone unknown, and at least give him a chance to claim, rather then vig someone unknown and possibly lose a power role without him even having a chance to claim. The vig kill is guarenteed to kill at least a cult member, and we've got another chance to find a cult leader today. If Blaze is still alive tommorow, then we can re-think things, but he shouldn't be.

Anyway, Viking, why would the SK bother to kill a steadfast townie or whatever? A steadfast role is a threat to the cult, sure, but not really a threat to the SK.
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 6:31 am

Post by armlx »

I was actually going to make the same post as Yos before I read it.

Actually, a Steadfast the SK would want to leave alive as they can't turn into cult.
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:19 am

Post by mnowax »

sounds like a plan. Now who do we
lynch?
Sure one more time for fun.
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:26 am

Post by NabakovNabakov »

I would be interested in pressuring lurkers or getting them replaced. Stark is especially frustrating considering that he's managed to make it 10 pages and 2+ prods without a post.

Mod:
When you say "picked up his prod" does that just mean he opened it? Did he reply? Is he having technical difficulties?

Far too many players have been limping through this game, and that particuarly unacceptable considering the nature of the baddies.
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 1:01 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

Nab is right..just finished a PBP in a newbie game..this one is next...
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:12 pm

Post by the silent speaker »

Our lynch is Occult.
I'm also just curious at the sudden drop off in interest to lynch him. I personally am finding it a bit ridiculous. He pulls a gambit and we seem to be letting it work. Before he claims, he is the perfect lynch to a good portion of the players:

Guardian wrote:
Blazerunner [6] (the silent speaker, Greggo, armlx, mnowax, malthusis, vikingfan)

and now after he says, "well you got me, I'm in the cult." everyone suddenly drops their vote?
I don't see one single unvote after he claimed. All the unvoting was before. The only shift is that now that Blaze is an acknowledged recruit, Occult has voted him -- when recruits are exactly what we don't want to spend our time lynching. (Yes, Blaze *could* be a Cult Leader, but Occult gives no reason for him to be more likely to be one than anyone else. In fact, Occult himself says that recruit is by far the more likely: "I personally think there is a
slight possibility
that he could be more then a recruit.")

Blatant falsehood and an action long shown to be not in alignment with the best interests of the town. Ergo, Occult is trying to drop his now useless asset like a hot potato.
Vote: Occult
I think it's pretty clear that TSS's awesomeness did alter the roles each of us recieved, and thus he's obviously pro-town. -- Save The Dragons
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:52 pm

Post by mypenguinkat »

explanation for my unvote.

i went back and reread everything and couldn't decide. i am finished with finals, and am trying to play detailed catch-up. for now, i am still unsure, but i am still in.
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:19 am

Post by mnowax »

the silent speaker wrote:Our lynch is Occult.
I'm also just curious at the sudden drop off in interest to lynch him. I personally am finding it a bit ridiculous. He pulls a gambit and we seem to be letting it work. Before he claims, he is the perfect lynch to a good portion of the players:

Guardian wrote:
Blazerunner [6] (the silent speaker, Greggo, armlx, mnowax, malthusis, vikingfan)

and now after he says, "well you got me, I'm in the cult." everyone suddenly drops their vote?
I don't see one single unvote after he claimed. All the unvoting was before. The only shift is that now that Blaze is an acknowledged recruit, Occult has voted him -- when recruits are exactly what we don't want to spend our time lynching. (Yes, Blaze *could* be a Cult Leader, but Occult gives no reason for him to be more likely to be one than anyone else. In fact, Occult himself says that recruit is by far the more likely: "I personally think there is a
slight possibility
that he could be more then a recruit.")

Blatant falsehood and an action long shown to be not in alignment with the best interests of the town. Ergo, Occult is trying to drop his now useless asset like a hot potato.
Vote: Occult

I like the reasoning. I also believe that while I was still on the wagon even after he claimed, i believe that there is no way Blaze would have thought that claiming a recruit when he is a leader is a very good idea. He knows that he is either going to get lynched or vigged anyway, so it does him no good to claim being a recruit unless he was one.

unvote, Vote Occult
Besides,
his name sounds like he's a cult leader!
Sure one more time for fun.
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 3:50 pm

Post by vollkan »

Viking wrote: and yet stark has yet to post in this game major fos.
So I take it this means you have completed a statistical survey which reveals that people who don't post are scum? I'd love to see the results if you have an excel chart or something.

His (or anybody's) lack of posting merits replacement not suspicion.
TSS wrote:
I don't see one single unvote after he claimed. All the unvoting was before. The only shift is that now that Blaze is an acknowledged recruit, Occult has voted him -- when recruits are exactly what we don't want to spend our time lynching. (Yes, Blaze *could* be a Cult Leader, but Occult gives no reason for him to be more likely to be one than anyone else. In fact, Occult himself says that recruit is by far the more likely: "I personally think there is a slight possibility that he could be more then a recruit.")

Blatant falsehood and an action long shown to be not in alignment with the best interests of the town. Ergo, Occult is trying to drop his now useless asset like a hot potato. Vote: Occult
QFT.

@Occult: You think lynching Blaze is helpful. Thus, I assume you can rebut the argument that lynching recruits is not in the town's best interest.

Also, I've embarked upon a new policy of declaring my ground rules in each game I start. Since I have only recently entered here, I feel it is appropriate for me to post them. The reason I have started this is because I am tired of getting into theory disputes with people mid-game and, thus, I would rather lay everything on the table immediately:
vollkan wrote:
Vollkan's Ground Rules

1)
I use a % system to rank people.
  • a: 0% means someone's behaviour is absolute confirmed town. 100% means someone's behaviour is absolute confirmed scum.
    b: The rankings refer to behaviour unless otherwise stated. Someone that has claimed cop may still get a rating of 60% if their play has been worth 60%. I may also give them a probability ranking that factors in their claim.
    c: Everybody starts at 50%.
    d: Someone who has neither a preponderance of scumtells or towntells will receive 50%.
    e: Any unreadable lurker will receive 50%
    f: It is rare for me to give people a ranking below 50% (see section 2) below)
2)
I am exceptionally skeptical of "town tells". Recent experience in House Mafia has exacerbated this.

3)
Any player who justifies a vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. on one of the following:
  • a) 'Hunch';
    b) 'Gut';
    c) 'Feeling';
    d) 'Belief'; or
    e) Anything that has a meaning similar to those of the above
will receive a stern demand from me that they give objective reasons for their vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. Should they fail to do so, my expectation is that the vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. will be dropped. If not, then they can expect their % ranking to increase.

4)
If you want to play in a chaotic fashion, that's fine. However, if I can't understand what you are doing I will demand an explanation and justification. If you don't provide me with one, your % ranking
will
increase.

5)
Any person who accuses another person of being scum for one of the following:
  • a) Over-reaction;
    b) Lurking;
    c) Aggression;
    d) Bandwagoning (see section 6) below);

Can expect their % ranking to increase.

6)
Bandwagoning is not a scumtell. Voting with crap reasons is a scumtell. I don't give a toss how many times you vote, but I care very deeply about your reasons for doing so.

7)
I hate lurkers. If you do not post within a reasonable timeframe, I will bombard you with questions and, very likely, demand you provide a full scumdar with at least 2 sentences per person. If you choose not to do so, I will expect that you desist from posting and be replaced.

8)
Reliance on conspiracy arguments, such as "I think X is scummy because he did Y which could help scum because Z" (keyword = "could") will merit a % increase.

9)
If I make a mistake somewhere I will point out that I have made tremendous cock-ups as town in a number of games. If you choose to ignore these meta-references, your % ranking will rise.

10)
If you are finding the game too 'difficult' or 'complex' either read up or replace out.

11)
My posts will be as long as I feel like making them.
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:20 pm

Post by Norinel »

NabakovNabakov wrote:
Mod:
When you say "picked up his prod" does that just mean he opened it? Did he reply? Is he having technical difficulties?
He's responded, but has been having technical difficulties.

Also, Greggo has requested replacement; I'll get on that now.
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 5:19 pm

Post by springlullaby »

vollkan wrote:
Vollkan's Ground Rules

1)
I use a % system to rank people.
  • a: 0% means someone's behaviour is absolute confirmed town. 100% means someone's behaviour is absolute confirmed scum.
    b: The rankings refer to behaviour unless otherwise stated. Someone that has claimed cop may still get a rating of 60% if their play has been worth 60%. I may also give them a probability ranking that factors in their claim.
    c: Everybody starts at 50%.
    d: Someone who has neither a preponderance of scumtells or towntells will receive 50%.
    e: Any unreadable lurker will receive 50%
    f: It is rare for me to give people a ranking below 50% (see section 2) below)
2)
I am exceptionally skeptical of "town tells". Recent experience in House Mafia has exacerbated this.

3)
Any player who justifies a vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. on one of the following:
  • a) 'Hunch';
    b) 'Gut';
    c) 'Feeling';
    d) 'Belief'; or
    e) Anything that has a meaning similar to those of the above
will receive a stern demand from me that they give objective reasons for their vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. Should they fail to do so, my expectation is that the vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. will be dropped. If not, then they can expect their % ranking to increase.

4)
If you want to play in a chaotic fashion, that's fine. However, if I can't understand what you are doing I will demand an explanation and justification. If you don't provide me with one, your % ranking
will
increase.

5)
Any person who accuses another person of being scum for one of the following:
  • a) Over-reaction;
    b) Lurking;
    c) Aggression;
    d) Bandwagoning (see section 6) below);

Can expect their % ranking to increase.

6)
Bandwagoning is not a scumtell. Voting with crap reasons is a scumtell. I don't give a toss how many times you vote, but I care very deeply about your reasons for doing so.

7)
I hate lurkers. If you do not post within a reasonable timeframe, I will bombard you with questions and, very likely, demand you provide a full scumdar with at least 2 sentences per person. If you choose not to do so, I will expect that you desist from posting and be replaced.

8)
Reliance on conspiracy arguments, such as "I think X is scummy because he did Y which could help scum because Z" (keyword = "could") will merit a % increase.

9)
If I make a mistake somewhere I will point out that I have made tremendous cock-ups as town in a number of games. If you choose to ignore these meta-references, your % ranking will rise.

10)
If you are finding the game too 'difficult' or 'complex' either read up or replace out.

11)
My posts will be as long as I feel like making them.
Unvote, Vote: Volkan


If you are town, you have nothing to gain from such a post.
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 5:50 pm

Post by vollkan »

springlullaby wrote:
vollkan wrote:
Vollkan's Ground Rules

1)
I use a % system to rank people.
  • a: 0% means someone's behaviour is absolute confirmed town. 100% means someone's behaviour is absolute confirmed scum.
    b: The rankings refer to behaviour unless otherwise stated. Someone that has claimed cop may still get a rating of 60% if their play has been worth 60%. I may also give them a probability ranking that factors in their claim.
    c: Everybody starts at 50%.
    d: Someone who has neither a preponderance of scumtells or towntells will receive 50%.
    e: Any unreadable lurker will receive 50%
    f: It is rare for me to give people a ranking below 50% (see section 2) below)
2)
I am exceptionally skeptical of "town tells". Recent experience in House Mafia has exacerbated this.

3)
Any player who justifies a vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. on one of the following:
  • a) 'Hunch';
    b) 'Gut';
    c) 'Feeling';
    d) 'Belief'; or
    e) Anything that has a meaning similar to those of the above
will receive a stern demand from me that they give objective reasons for their vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. Should they fail to do so, my expectation is that the vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. will be dropped. If not, then they can expect their % ranking to increase.

4)
If you want to play in a chaotic fashion, that's fine. However, if I can't understand what you are doing I will demand an explanation and justification. If you don't provide me with one, your % ranking
will
increase.

5)
Any person who accuses another person of being scum for one of the following:
  • a) Over-reaction;
    b) Lurking;
    c) Aggression;
    d) Bandwagoning (see section 6) below);

Can expect their % ranking to increase.

6)
Bandwagoning is not a scumtell. Voting with crap reasons is a scumtell. I don't give a toss how many times you vote, but I care very deeply about your reasons for doing so.

7)
I hate lurkers. If you do not post within a reasonable timeframe, I will bombard you with questions and, very likely, demand you provide a full scumdar with at least 2 sentences per person. If you choose not to do so, I will expect that you desist from posting and be replaced.

8)
Reliance on conspiracy arguments, such as "I think X is scummy because he did Y which could help scum because Z" (keyword = "could") will merit a % increase.

9)
If I make a mistake somewhere I will point out that I have made tremendous cock-ups as town in a number of games. If you choose to ignore these meta-references, your % ranking will rise.

10)
If you are finding the game too 'difficult' or 'complex' either read up or replace out.

11)
My posts will be as long as I feel like making them.
Unvote, Vote: Volkan


If you are town, you have nothing to gain from such a post.
You haven't played with me before, so I can understand you reacting this way.

The thing is that in almost every game I play I encounter people who have some objection to some aspect of my game theory. In Open 59, for instance, I was town voted Adel for a breach of what has become rule 4. The whole thing spiralled out of control into a theory debate and ended up wasting the day and, thus, playing a role in the mislynch which ensued. My % system regularly gets questioned and criticised (see: Pooky criticising it in House Mafia).

What does townvollkan have to gain from such a post?

Simple: It makes things clear from the get-go exactly what I think about things in this game. For that reason, it avoids me having to reiterate and explain myself later on, thus avoiding unnecessary time-wasting with people quibbling about my playstyle. It lets you know where I stand and lets me play the game without being distracted by people who don't like how I play.
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:10 pm

Post by armlx »

Fos Springlullaby
for being anxious about a procedural way to find scum.
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:36 pm

Post by Occult »

Ok, I have a problem with the exchange that took place between Mno and Blaze a few pages back.

Mno asks Blaze why he killed DGB. Mno later says that he's reasoning for believing that have 70% to do with something blaze posted, 25% his night actions and 5% gut. Now there is a couple problems with this. The only people that can kill are the Vig. and the SK. Now Mno seems to claim through this that he is a power role(he says he is certain that Blaze killed DGB).
mnowax wrote:sorry about the down time from me. Like i sad before i know that blaze killed DGB. i cannot say why i know, but i can with relative certainty. He said something before that confirmed my suspicions and information and deductions that i have now.
Now, if he was the Vig and he attacked blaze (and blaze didn't die) that
would make blaze a very possible cult leader or SK. But since being a vig has nothing to do with knowing who someone targeted i don't believe he is a vig.

If he was a Alarmist, he wouldn't have had a reason to attack blaze since there is no way of knowing who blaze targeted.

If he was the cop, he would've gotten a town result on blaze if he was an SK and a cult result if blaze had been recruited or already part of the cult (aka, cult leader), but since a cop has no reason to see if someone targeted anyone and since a cult leader would take a recruitment over a kill at this point in the game (this is supported by the fact that there was only one body) he would have no reason to believe that blaze killed DGB.

If he was a watcher, he would've have know that blaze was targeted, not that he targeted DGB and would not have attacked blaze for killing him.

If he was a tracker then he would've seen that Blaze targeted DGB and was likely the killer.

All of these are assuming if Mno is talking from a pro-town stand point.

Which means that Mno (if he's telling the truth) is a Tracker.

Which would also mean that IF mno is telling the truth then blaze lied about being a role blocker that blocked TSS. Which means that either Mno is lying, Blaze is lying or they are both lying.


Conclusions

1)Blaze lied, which means that there a good chance that he is a cult leader pulling a gambit (there is a chance of him being a cult recruit trying to cause confusion) or a stupid SK.
2)Mno Lied, which means that Mno is a Cult or SK (He sure as hell better not have lied as town)
3)They both lied, which is basically points 1 and 2, with one of them being SK or in different Cult factions.


Unvote


I take I pretty strong LAL stance. One of these two are our lynch for today.
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springlullaby
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 7:12 pm

Post by springlullaby »

armlx wrote:
Fos Springlullaby
for being anxious about a procedural way to find scum.
1. 'Procedural way to find scum', really? What I see is a 'how to avoid my suspicion if you are scum' guide and a series of preemptive self-justifications.

2. Tell me how is it beneficial to town to reveal said 'procedural way to find scum' in advance if one does indeed abide by it?

Volkan, I think your justification is poor; surely not ruining a game by theory debates is up to the player's attitude and has little to do with the player's belief.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 7:32 pm

Post by vollkan »

Spring wrote: 1. 'Procedural way to find scum', really? What I see is a 'how to avoid my suspicion if you are scum' guide and a series of preemptive self-justifications.

2. Tell me how is it beneficial to town to reveal said 'procedural way to find scum' in advance if one does indeed abide by it?
Two points:
1) It is a procedural method of scumhunting insofar as I have outlined a substantial (though not exhaustive) list of things that I find scummy/not scummy but which often give rise to controversy.
2) I acknowledge that it has a deterrent effect with respect to some things I identified. However, I considered that risk and decided it was negligible in practice. I don't want to outline how this works in full (I will if people insist) but if it does act as a deterrent it will narrow the range of acceptable behaviour and should, in fact, make things more difficult for scum by forcing them to argue on proper logical grounds, by way of making weaker grounds unacceptable.
Spring wrote: Volkan, I think your justification is poor; surely not ruining a game by theory debates is up to the player's attitude and has little to do with the player's belief.
You'd think so, but it doesn't often play out like that for me. I've often encountered people who, in the process of attacking me for something they perceive as scummy, are actually attacking some theoretical aspect of my play. That means that, when I should be engaged in meaningful argument, things get sidetracked by the likes of, eg, criticism of my insistence that people supply reasons.

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