Newbie 588 - Game Over!

[Abstract Actuary]

This one was easy.

Vote: Cat_Killer

First post of the gane and I like cats!

[Abstract Actuary]

lol i didn't disappear, im just watching XD, the mafias know who each other are right? cos some ppl have been cooperating with each other quite well

Who have you noticed working together?

[Abstract Actuary]

I think he said camisade and I.

Ah, I see it now, sorry.

---------------------------

I agree that MafiaMurkrow's play has been suspicious. Cat_Killer's play on the first page was rather strange, too, and it was quickly forgotten. I'm fine with my vote where it is for now.

[Abstract Actuary]

Based on these two posts it looks like Mafia Murkrow is at L-1.

Official Vote Count

Cat_Killer - 2 (Abstract Actuary, Mafiamurkrow)
camisade - 1 (Dave)
Mafiamurkrow - 3 (rolandofthewhite, goborage, Grum)

Not Voting - 3 (camisade, Cat_Killer, The World No.1 Noob)

5 to Lynch

AW BLEH. -has mysteriously disappeared for a while due to busynessism- I'm sorry for poofing. D=

Ugh. Do you not have anything to say besides that?

vote: Mafiamurkrow

And at least one person who thinks he's suspicious enough to add the hammer.

Mafiamurkrow seems scummy to me. See:

Unvote.

And...

Vote: Cat-Killer.

Why did you do this? You should probably post reasons when you vote, because if you don't it seems suspicious.

Okay, here's my reason.

First, I voted no lynch because I didn't really suspect anybody. But then...I thought it over and voted CK. Sorry, Cat-Killer.

That's... not a reason. Failing to adequitely explain his motives.

And why did you vote Cat-Killer?

Does it really matter? Besides, whoever I vote might get other people to vote for them too. And really, no need to know EVERYTHING...

Again, continuously avoiding the question. Add that to the terminal lurking and I think it's scummy.

I'm holding off my vote becuase that would put him on L-1, however, unless something changes my mind, I WILL be voting for him.

FOS: Mafiamurkrow

And all Mafiamurkrow has to say is . . .

Huh...erm,

vote: no lynch.

I have no leads and no idea otherwise, so I can't really lynch anyone.

Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail." Anyway, I think it's time to get a role claim from Mafiamurkrow.

[Abstract Actuary]

Isn't that the hammer? If it is we just made a newbie mistake as a town. We should always give a player heading towards the gallows a chance to claim their role. Town power players (doctors, cops) should tell us their role. All vanilla players should never claim anything other than vanilla. This would give us a chance to back off of the wagon to keep the town power player alive, at least until night.

I hope that Mafiamurkrow was not a town power player.

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm simple civilian, not doctor or investigator.

Not your role claim, Mafiamurkrow's. In general you don't want to ever claim your role unless you are about to be lynched and you are a town power role. Even telling the rest of the town you are plain vanilla helps the mafia.

Once Mafiamurkrow (or anyone for that matter) got to L-1 we requested a role claim (from him) so we didn't kill a town power role. Your hammer made that impossible.

[Abstract Actuary]

Based on these two posts it looks like Mafia Murkrow is at L-1.

Official Vote Count

Cat_Killer - 2 (Abstract Actuary, Mafiamurkrow)
camisade - 1 (Dave)
Mafiamurkrow - 3 (rolandofthewhite, goborage, Grum)

Not Voting - 3 (camisade, Cat_Killer, The World No.1 Noob)

5 to Lynch

AW BLEH. -has mysteriously disappeared for a while due to busynessism- I'm sorry for poofing. D=

Ugh. Do you not have anything to say besides that?

vote: Mafiamurkrow

And at least one person who thinks he's suspicious enough to add the hammer.

Mafiamurkrow seems scummy to me. See:

Unvote.

And...

Vote: Cat-Killer.

Why did you do this? You should probably post reasons when you vote, because if you don't it seems suspicious.

Okay, here's my reason.

First, I voted no lynch because I didn't really suspect anybody. But then...I thought it over and voted CK. Sorry, Cat-Killer.

That's... not a reason. Failing to adequitely explain his motives.

And why did you vote Cat-Killer?

Does it really matter? Besides, whoever I vote might get other people to vote for them too. And really, no need to know EVERYTHING...

Again, continuously avoiding the question. Add that to the terminal lurking and I think it's scummy.

I'm holding off my vote becuase that would put him on L-1, however, unless something changes my mind, I WILL be voting for him.

FOS: Mafiamurkrow

And all Mafiamurkrow has to say is . . .

Huh...erm,

vote: no lynch.

I have no leads and no idea otherwise, so I can't really lynch anyone.

Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail." Anyway, I think it's time to get a role claim from Mafiamurkrow.

I think this post is suspicious. It's in the guise of someone trying to prevent a quick-lynch. But what AA is doing is summing up all the "scummy" actions that Mafiamurkrow has made and making a case to lynch.

AA distances himself from the lynching by not actually voting for her. After all, throwing a hammer would make one look suspicious. However AA indirectly causes the lynch by convincing #1 Newb.

My question is why are you so gung-ho on making Mafiamurkrow look suspicious if you're voting for Cat-killer? Is Cat-killer not the most suspicious person on your list? Why didn't you make a summary of Cat's scummy actions?

This is a horrible misrepresentation of my post and it seems you missed the point just like Noob and Murkrow did.

I didn't sum up any case against Mafiamurkrow. I quoted the vote count, then the vote that put her at L-1, then a subsequent FoS (potential hammer), then a post by Mafiamurkrow in the middle that shows she didn't understand the situation. The purpose was to alert everyone of the situation. Since the L-1 vote had happened, no one even seemed to notice. No one mentioned it and that is a dangerous situation to be in. So I wanted to make everyone aware of the situation - especially Mafiamurkrow and any potential hammers. The reason I did it is clearly stated in the post. Essentially, slow down, here's the situation and no one hammer before we get a role claim from Mafiamurkrow; Mafiamurkrow, claim you role.

At that point I didn't have any suspicions on anyone that were good enough to lynch. Cat_Killer had acted the scummiest to me based on her page one play - which I've already stated. It seemed newb scum, but just as easily could have been newb town. Mafiamurkrow had acted strangely, but nothing to make me think she was scum.

[Abstract Actuary]

I think a simple "Mafiamurkrow is at -1, make a rolecall please" would have sufficed. Instead you quote a giant wall of text of people accusing Mafiamurkrow. Besides that, your defense works up to this point: "Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail." This is finger-pointing, an attempt to make Mafiamurkrow look scummy.

You then go on to say "Mafiamurkrow had acted strangely, but nothing to make me think she was scum." This quote applies again: "Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail." This quote proves that you thought what Mafiamurkrow was doing was scummy.

FOS: Abstract Actuary

I said it "could be." I didn't say it was scummy. It's not inherently scummy to make that statement, but scum could benefit from it. There is a difference.

I could have made my post simpler, but it appeared to me that everyone had missed what had occurred (MM to L-1) and I wanted to make it clear what happened.

[Abstract Actuary]

In case it wasn't clear the doctor should not claim his role unless he is about to be lynched. It is very likely that the mafia was blocked last night and that the doctor knows of one innocent person, but it is not a surety - and nothing can be inferred from the flavor.

I think we should move on.

[Abstract Actuary]

Ok, rereading and I think I've figured out where my vote will lie today.

Vote: Grum

Way to overexcitable and freaks out whenever anyone questions him over his actions. He jumped around on numerous votes yesterday. Today his actions with the No.1-doctor thing were extremely questionable (whether or not No.1 is anything, what Grum was doing is the equivalent of screaming, "SHHHHH!" extremely loudly in a library, or something). Oh, and as soon as someone mentions another target (No.1 telling goborage to not be so aggressive), Grum immediately jumped on that win an FOS.

Rereading, I think that 2/3 of goborage, Grum, and camisade could be scum. I'm still leaning toward camisade and Grum.

I'm fairly certain of No.1 and Cat_Killer's innocence. If Abstract Actuary is Mafia, he's doing a hella good job. And Lord knows when it comes to Dave. That boy needs to post more often and more meaningfully.

Now watch all of this be wrong. :p

I agree that Grum has been acting suspicious. Not a big read on Camisade at this point. Neutral about goborage. I would like to hear more from Dave.

[Abstract Actuary]

I wish to apologize for my previous behavior. I'm sorry.

wow quick to apologize, not band wagoning or anything but that's mafiaish

Wow, quick to jump on anything done by the town's top suspect. Not bandwagoning or anything, but that's mafiaish.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA because of the incident earlier of what goborage noticed that he made a whole wall of quotes that pointed towards marf being suspicous but didn't vote for her himself and then later said he wasn't suspicous of her at all.

Please reread the post and my responses to goborage. Especially the original post. I was against a quicklynch of Mafiamurkrow, encouraged her to claim and was warning people not to hammer until a claim came.

She had gone to L-1 and no one seemed to even notice. In fact, it would be in the mafia's best interest to not point out the situation in the hope that a noob town (perhaps the World's #1) would come along and vote for the popular target not realizing they just dropped the hammer.

[Abstract Actuary]

Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail."

This is what I said. The key words are "could be". Most things that people do you could look at and say, "Would scum say something like this?", "Why would they say something like this?" and "How would they say something like this?"

In this instance I looked at what he had said while he was at L-1 (most likely unbeknownst to him) and gave what a scum in his position could be thinking. There is a key difference. I didn't say what he said made him more likely to be scum, or was even a scummy statement in itself. I just showed what scum would have been thinking and doing in that sentence.

And here is what you say I am contradicting.

Mafiamurkrow had acted strangely, but nothing to make me think she was scum.

Even if you think this is a contradiction (I disagree), it doesn't imply anything. The contention is that I somehow caused the Mafiamurkrow lynch. The point of my post was to do the opposite. It isn't a post that a mafia member, especially an experienced player, would be likely to do (try to slow down the lynch and get a claim - very protown). I could never have foreseen that that post could cause someone to drop the hammer when it's purpose is to warn people not to drop the hammer.

[Abstract Actuary]

I think it scares him a little because you are such an experienced player and thats just what a skilled mafia player would do...

A skilled mafia player would not do that. A skilled mafia member would rather not mention it at all in the hopes that someone reads a good case against the target and votes with it, not realizing it was the hammer. One point of my post was to point out that the next vote would be the hammer. A mafia member would rather that fact is not known.

And why would you do this at all? Do you regularly place insinuations in people's posts? How can you deny that your post does not make MM look bad to the rest of town? You're giving a scummy flavour to MM's post; one that was not there before.

Yes, I like to try to read into posts and see what that person's motivations could have been as town and scum. In this situation at L-1 I didn't know if Mafiamurkrow was aware of the situation and was daftly avoiding giving more information as scum, or he was completely unaware. The post sounded simply unaware, but I wanted the rest of the town to realize the other possibility and especially I wanted to add pressure to Mafiamurkrow to elaborate his suspicions and name names. That was the point of the sentence. "MM, you aren't allowed to go quietly into the night. Name some names."

The contradiction that I see is your

pro-MM lynch post

vs

your anti-MM lynch stance

you later took. It implies that you are distancing yourself from the MM lynch even though you were for it.

The contradiction either doesn't exist or it doesn't matter. There are two parts of your post that are incorrect.

It wasn't a pro-MM lynch post.

That is the point you seem to be missing this whole time. The point of the post is to point out the situation, call for a claim, and prevent any accidental hammers.

Where do I attack an MM voter other than Noob? I don't have an

anti-MM stance

. The premature hammer and no claim from MM sucked. Other than that I haven't picked out anything from any other voters that struck me as suspicious. As the game progresses and I reread the round I may find something more, but for now, nothing else stuck out.

[Abstract Actuary]

Or if scum wanted to make themselves look pro-town they would rush to be the first one to point it out.

Both plays could have value for scum. In my opinion, the one where you allow a quick mislynch with no role claim opportunity of a townie has much, much more value over potentially gaining a minor townie point. A good scum would choose the first option.

When you first defended yourself, you said that your post was purely to inform town that MM was at L-1 and that you didn't think she was scummy. Now you say you were pressuring MM. Why would a guy not suspicious of MM pressure her?

I would like to pressure anyone and everyone I can, whether I find them scummy or not. That is a big part of the game. I still maintain I didn't find MM scummy at the time. My read on Mafiamurkrow at the time was "Middle of the Road" - a very viable pressure option. I wasn't leaning in either town or scum direction. This also addresses something you say below. I never said I thought MM was town and the lynch should be altogether prevented.

Let's look at the quote again: Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail."

You then offer this explanation: I wanted to add pressure to Mafiamurkrow to elaborate his suspicions and name names. That was the point of the sentence. "MM, you aren't allowed to go quietly into the night. Name some names."

I'm having trouble connecting your MM post with your explanation. Your MM post is not a question; it's not even directed at MM. It's directed at town. If you wanted MM to list her suspicions why wouldn't you just ask?

Alright, I can buy that. It would have been more effective to address her specifically and request more information. On the other hand a passive pressure technique can also have it's merits, too. See if they choose to ignore the indirect request or see if they jump up and defend themselves at first chance. You don't get that opportunity with a direct request.

The contradiction that I see is your

pro-MM lynch post

vs

your anti-MM lynch stance

you later took. It implies that you are distancing yourself from the MM lynch even though you were for it.

The contradiction either doesn't exist or it doesn't matter. There are two parts of your post that are incorrect.

Of course it matters. I read your "I didn't find MM scummy" post as a lie. There's an accepted doctrine called Lynch-All-Liars of which I am a proponent of.

I still maintain that is wasn't a lie. I also maintain that my read on her was middle-of-the-road.

In general I'm not a fan of any blanket doctrines. But if there was one I would blindly follow it would be Lynch-All-Liars. But the crux is understanding what the nature and severity of the lie must be to follow it. Something that is essentially inconsequential is not a lynchable lie. You have to get at the heart of, the purpose of and the effect of the lie for the reasons you lynch on it. This goes to my opinion of doctrines. You can't follow them to the letter.

Anyone who follows them to the letter is just acting foolish and is being lazy. That person is just looking for any excuse to have an immovable vote that doesn't require any more explanation or digging. Mafia members love to make votes like that because it gets them out of scum hunting or leaving any future trail for that entire day (or maybe even future days if their target is not lynched). Now, I'm not saying that is what you're doing, since your focus has been broad this entire day. In fact, my read on you is town, but that is not the issue at hand.

Other than that I haven't picked out anything from any other voters that struck me as suspicious. As the game progresses and I reread the round I may find something more, but for now, nothing else stuck out.

Here's another problem I have with you - your lack of scum-hunting. Beyond defending yourself, you don't really post here much. Day one you parked a vote on Cat Killer and pretty much lurked the rest of the day. You didn't develop a case against Cat Killer or ask her questions. And if you really didn't think MM was scum then why wouldn't you defend her or try to convince town of another option?

I agree, I would like to be scum hunting more. But unfortunately I feel that this issue has inhibited that for two main reasons. I've spent most of my time trying to show how this issue is a non-issue and it is distracting the town and this issue is distracting the town. Most of the conversation this day has been about this issue, The World's #1 Noob and some role possibilities, with the occasional player throwing out a list of suspicions.

Regarding my play on day 1: The day was unfortunately short. Something I tried to prevent. But there wasn't much that happened. Also, I typically play pretty slow on day 1 because there is usually very little to go on as was the case in this game. You can meta me if you want. I usually pick it up as the game goes on and more and more information comes out.

===============================

Abstract Actuary wrote:
Seems like it could be scum saying "I'm not going to name any names as to avoid leaving any more trail."


This is what I said. The key words are "could be"

I really find this explanation quite weak

In your own words and with your own opinion:

What am I trying to explain?
Is it something that needs to be explained? And why?
What do you find weak about it? Do you think that the words "could be" are me implying that this quote makes her scum?
Have you read the followup conversations and posts about the subject?
Why did you choose to ignore them when addressing this quote?
Do you find the entire defense satisfactory? Why or why not?
Do you think that that notorious D1 post makes me more likely to be scum or town? And Why?
Do you think that my defense of that post makes me more likely to be town or scum? And Why?
What is your overall read on me?

[Abstract Actuary]

I'll be V/LA this weekend. Will post when I get back.

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm back. Two active replacements - awesome. Thanks guys.

Regarding my vote park - I random voted for Cat_Killer. By the end of the page she had become my top suspect. The day was cut very short and no one had done anything since then that had troubled me as much as the way Cat_Killer was playing. I'd be curious to know how much everyone else's vote moved on that short day 1 that makes my play seem so out of the ordinary.

My top three suspects are Dave, Camisade and Grum.

Dave has been openly lurking for most of the game, with short posts here and there that add nothing but have the affect of avoiding a prod.

I'd like to hear an explanation regarding Camisade's flip flop on Dave.

Grum's exchange and attack of goborage and buddying up to me has seemed a little scummy.

It is interesting to note that Camisade's first vote was for Dave and Dave's first vote was for Camisade. Also interesting is during day 1 Dave said he was suspicious of other people but didn't change his vote off of Camisade. (thanks for the summary posts, Mokina) All in all, this makes me think that Dave and Camisade are less likely to be partners. Although I still find their interaction to be suspicious.

[Abstract Actuary]

I don't like post 142 by Gobo, he is asking everyone to make a scum list. Scum lists help scum a hell of a lot with their night kill choices. FOS: Gobo.

I don't agree. Scum start off more informed than town, so it doesn't help them all that much. On the other hand, town gains info from these lists such as buddying attempts, distancing and player mentality.

I'm torn on this issue. I always think it is fine to list 1-3 top suspects, no problems there. My problem comes with complete lists. At first I was very against it.

Take this example from a simplified world: we all make a list ranking every single player. Player X is at the bottom of every single list. Scum will nightkill Player X since he will never be suspected or killed by the town.

As I play more I'm becoming more and more okay with the lists. The main benefit of the lists, in my opinion, is looking back at the lists that the scum made after they are uncovered. Also, I think the Doctor and other town power roles lessens the likelihood of scum using the lists to choose their night victims. At the very least it makes killing Player X a little risky, because of a possible Doctor protection.

[Abstract Actuary]

Hey AA, I haven't attacked you in a while...so where's the scumhunting?

In the process of a detailed reread. Where's your recent scumhunting?

[Abstract Actuary]

I'd like to hear more from AA. Apparently it takes at least 5 days for him to re-read a thread.

Ha. Unfortunately my time is not devoted to mafiascum. I do have a job that takes up most of my time so I don't have a lot of time to devote to rereading this thread. But I am making my way through it. I'm also in no hurry because I won't post anything until we hear some detailed explanations from Dave and get some back and forth or get a replacement.

On the other hand we have you, who says you're scum hunting by asking me to scum hunt in response to a post where I asked how much you were scum hunting. So, in fact, recently, we've done the same exact level of scum hunting, yet you want more from me. And now, to top it all off we have a player who is blatantly and actively lurking that is essentially holding up the game since we are all waiting for him to post and you are more interested in hearing from me! Are you trying to protect Dave? Trying to get some other discussion going where the focus isn't on him? Why?

[Abstract Actuary]

And now, to top it all off we have a player who is blatantly and actively lurking that is essentially holding up the game since we are all waiting for him to post and you are more interested in hearing from me! Are you trying to protect Dave? Trying to get some other discussion going where the focus isn't on him? Why?

Interesting analysis, AA. Are you suggesting a Dave/Goborage scumpair? If so, we might want to look a bit at some of their older posts to see if they have a record of protecting one another.

My vote is still on Dave as most likely scum, though. It's very easy to ask others to pick up the posting, but I'll probably post again today or tomorrow with an analysis of any Dave/Goborage links.

I haven't noticed anything else to make me think that was the case, but it surprises me that everyone is pressuring Dave to post and participate and goborage is more concerned with me taking more than 5 days for a reread. Forcing me to post a long list of accusations and questions directed at the rest of the town is a great way for us to go back to forgetting about Dave.

[Abstract Actuary]

so what do we do in a situation like this? when a person has been prodded and the mod's told us that he's picked it up but he's just not posting?

Well we can vote him off for playing in an anti-town manner. Some players will always vote off people whose play is anti-town, purely on principle. Even if they don't think the person is scum. That principle can be dangerous. Early in the game it can be ok.

The other option is to wait until he is replaced. If he has been prodded multiple times and still isn't playing the game then he will eventually be replaced.

Mod: Is Dave close to replacement? Can you provide a timeline for such a possibility if it exists.

He was just prodded yesterday, and I give 72 hrs.

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm not searching for scumpairs right now, but Dave is acting antitown and that's good enough for me. I'm sick of waiting it out; I say we lynch him. This game is getting glacial.

Confirm Vote: Dave

Mokina, would you want to lynch Dave before he has a chance to respond or be replaced?

[Abstract Actuary]

Dave has picked up his 2nd prod. If the person is picking up prods but not posting, that's an issue for the remaining players to handle. The only time I will step in is if the person does not pick up his prod, in which case he will be replaced.

Ok. Hmmmm.

Well if he won't be replaced, he is picking up prods and deciding not to post, he needs to be lynched. A pro-town player should not force us to lynch him in this way.

I'll be voting for Dave tomorrow if he hasn't begun participating. Also, once we decide to lynch Dave I will post my analysis from my reread before we decide to go into night.

So, I ask that other players not take this game into night until the Town is ready to do so.

[Abstract Actuary]

Town, should I wait for the replacements to read through the thread and make their comments before I post my reread comments or go ahead with them?

[Abstract Actuary]

First I just highlight some events from the reread that I found interesting. Sorted by player, but mostly done in order of how I came across it.

Cat_Killer/Mokina

Cat_Killer adds the second vote to goborage during the joke voting stage,

Hey folks. <b>vote: no lynch</b> Can't we all get along?

It's [ and ] you need around tags.

Unvote
Vote: Goborage

Just for the fail

goborage FoS Cat_Killer for bandwagoning,

There are 2 mafia. Anyways FOS on Cat for bandwagoning (correct use of term?).

Cat_Killer responds by unvoting quickly and not bringing up the issue again.

Unvote

I'm tired and going to sleep. I will make further random accusations or actually play seriously tomorrow, when I'm awake.

She realizes she made a mistake and wants it to go away?

Grum

In this exchange roland comments about how he would expect a newb mafia to act.

wait rolandof, can u expland on the bandwagon thing? y would a mafia kill its own wouldn't that mean he'll have one less political ally? and I how come Mafiamurkrow hasn't made a post in a while?

A bandwagon is when people start jumping on a person trying to lynch them. And my theory is that THAT is why Mafiamurkrow hasn't gotten more votes. An unexperienced mafia would probably try to jump on his vote and get him quickly lynched. But if he is mafia, his partner surely wouldn't want to vote for him.

Grum is the next to post and this is what he says.

well then i'll do it cuz he need to post soon again anyway and at this point i don't care for him because hes a pokemon luber! terrible reason alone but hes been inactive. also i'm not his partner, if bandwagon was the reason behind everything no one would be lynched, and he lurks.

vote mafiamurkrow

A bit WIFOMy but I think newb scum may attempt to pull this off.

---

In this post Grum supports my cause. I think he is right about what he says, but it also sounds like scum trying to buddy up to me.

I don't know that just seems like hes being a valuable player to me. while it does set up murkrow to be on defensive, it is seemingly an effective way to get people to talk... if he throws accusations out there at random (not naming anyone rolandofthewhite...). my current thought is that abstract is really the most valuable player at the moment, calm and collect.

also i have to say your comment is rather funny...

This is finger-pointing, an attempt to make Mafiamurkrow look scummy.

followed in the same post by:

FOS: Abstract Actuary

fingers everywhere!!

---

There are two posts upcoming where I really get the feeling that Grum already knows the setup because he is scum.

what about 2 goons, sane doc, sane cop, 5 town?
thats my guess...

Sorry about that I did overreact there I think progresive observation and logical claims is the correct way to win not just pointing fingers at people because their confused...
Any how I'll try not to leave words uncapitalized. So whos been absent from the forums it seems like( aside from those on vacation like cat killa) people are lurking around here. lets assume that we have a doc and a cop, and then we can progress.

Underlined, mine. If he is mafia and they didn't pass, then he already knows the exact setup. This could be to throw us off the setup or because he knows it to be true and it was a slip.

I can definitely see mafia making this post under either mafia set up scenario.

FoS Grum

The World's No.1 Noob

People have brought this up already . . . but in this first post she seems to understand the value of taking as much time as possible.

april 19th, well thats not too bad we still got 10 days to gather as much info as we can.

And later she is the one to drop the premature hammer.

I agree with that, I'm not actually 100% sure she's mafia because her replies are too mafiaish, wouldn't a real mafia have thought up a better plan? But as camisade said her attitude is anti townie and its better to kill her to make things easier for the townies

vote: Mafiamurkrow

Fixed - Vel

However, I've gotten a very strong town read on her other than this instance.

goborage

In this post goborage names his top two suspects and Grum isn't on the list. Despite him FoSing Grum twice and putting a lot of pressure on him in the posts before this one. Is goborage pointing out the suspicious things Grum is doing to help him out while not fueling a potential lynch by not voting and not listing him? camisade even pointed out the double FoS with no vote.

Sorry about that I did overreact there I think progresive observation and logical claims is the correct way to win not just pointing fingers at people because their confused...

I'm not going to apologize for pointing fingers at people. No one here is scum-hunting and that's a problem. The issue isn't me being too aggressive, it's you being too passive.

Any how I'll try not to leave words uncapitalized. So whos been absent from the forums it seems like( aside from those on vacation like cat killa) people are lurking around here. lets assume that we have a doc and a cop, and then we can progress.

I agree there is a lot of inactivity here. But you can't complain about it when you do nothing to stop it. Lead by example and post questions/ suspicions. The more you post and the more questions you direct at people, the less people can lurk and get away with it.

@ Grum: Why would you assume we have a doctor and a cop?

@ everyone: In order to promote discussion I think we should all post the most suspicious people on our lists and the reasons for them.

I'll start. Everyone on MM's bandwagon should be under scrutiny, including me. Chances are at least one of them are scum. The problem I find is that lynching MM seemed so justifiable. Most of the votes seem to have been made in earnest because of MM's frustrating playstyle. The only outliers I see are:

1. Abstract Actuary: Wasn't actually on MM's bandwagon but was in my eyes, pro-lynch. His summary of MM's actions gives license to #1noob to hammer.

2. #1noob: Did not object to MM's playstyle at all prior to the hammer and hammered MM very quickly thereby not allowing for a roleclaim. His only defense? "o, sry"

These two are the most suspicious in my eyes. Looking forward to seeing everyone else's

camisade

In this response to goborage's suspicion, camisade sounds pretty defensive. Also, if the doctor successfully protected someone last night then they have a confirmed townie. camisade may be trying to make sure there is a level of doubt for the doctor.

These two are the most suspicious in my eyes:

camisade - sends mafiamurkrow to -1, "I agree. Or just lynch her because I've gotten sick of her BS." Seems to be pushing for a quick-lynch.

The World No.1 Noob - hammers mafiamurkrow without allowing a role-claim. Claims townie even though he isn't the one under suspicion - over-defensive.

About the no nightkill: Are mafia obliged to kill someone nightly or should we assume that a doctor miraculously saved a townie?

We didn't get anything relevant out of her ever, even when she was at L-1. All she posted was BS. Why sign up if you're not going to play the game?

No nightkill: I've read a game before where a lone Mafia claimed doctor and chose to forgo night killing and bluffed by saying that he protected someone. So I'm guessing Mafia is allowed to do that, but maybe it varies from mod to mod. I'm not sure

Dave

Well there isn't much in game stuff to analyze on Dave. There is the "awesome" post following the no night kill. In all honesty though, I had no reason to think he was scum until I read this post.

I think I figured out why there was no NK. The scum were too inactive to send one in by the deadline.

Or it was a trick Perhaps, players that have been consistently active throughtout the game, are the mafia, and did not send in the night action to frame the less active players with a post like this.

Fos: Goborage

goborage suggests (I think jokingly) that there was no night kill because the mafia didn't send in a kill. This implies that the inactive people are the mafia. The most inactive person has been Dave. His response to the goborage post is really telling, in my opinion.

Based on independent events my suspect list is

Grum
Dave
----big gap-----
goborage
camisade

In addition there is decent reason to believe that Grum and Dave are partners. For one thing, based on interactions in the thread I think any partners other than Dave and goborage are unlikely for Grum.

For most of day 2 Grum would mention Dave on his suspicion lists and put him 3rd out of 4. In my experience this is a common place to put your scum buddy. Now we get to a point where Grum and Dave are by far the top two suspects in the town and now Grum changes his focus to Dave. This seems like him trying to distance himself now that he realizes one of the two of them will likely go down today.

No, hes straight up lurking and I've been hoping he would stop if he was newb town... hes looking very scummy but I'm not looking forward to another day 1. So I'm holding off just now but hes the number 1 scummiest right next to me... wait...

I also get a slight sense of "annoyed partner" from this post.

I also think goborage with either Dave or Grum is a possibility. Even though I also wanted to slow down the Dave lynch for pro-town reasons, if Dave is scum his partner may also try to slow down the wagon. goborage definitely does that. In addition, there was the post where goborage attempts to shift the focus away from Dave when the rest of the town wanted the focus to be on Dave.

Also, the FoS/no vote/no mention on suspect list from goborage about Grum makes that partnership a possibility.

I'm not sure who camisade's partner is if he is scum. Most likely Dave, then goborage.

[Abstract Actuary]

However, I've gotten a very strong town read on her other than this instance.

"her"...I'm a guy, a male, apart from Mokina everyone here is...

Sorry about that. Cat_Killer was a girl, I believe, and I guess I confused your genders.

================

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

This is a strange reaction and a very strange first point to make. There is essentially no pressure for a goborage lynch at all. Most people think he is town and only myself and Grum have expressed any suspicion of goborage.

On a bigger level, your whole post is almost as if you are only responding to my long scumhunting post and attacking me in general. I'd like to hear your opinion on all the actions so far and on all the players.

--This is why I would have preferred waiting for the replacements to come in and make their initial read through post before I posted my analysis. It gives them a copout not to do a thorough read through and post their own thoughts, by just responding to or echoing recent thoughts by others.

Now back to your statement.

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

For a while I thought so too. His wild attacking play is not typical of newb-scum and I was getting a strong town read. But as it continued I began to realize that his attacks were pretty chaotic and weak and he was actually disrupting more than he was helping. Especially during the Dave standoff.

2) I think a Grum lynch is a weak lynch, as his alignement is totally crapshot at this point.

I agree that the strongest characteristic of Grum's play so far is newb, which could lead someone to believe his alignment is a crapshoot. But it also stinks of newb-scum. Please reread Claus and my case against him or more importantly reread Grum's play as a whole.

Dave fall into the same category to a lesser extent, as his non vote day one is a little more suspicious.

I'm not sure what you mean here or what your point is - especially the second part of your sentence. I think the first part is saying that you think Dave's alignment is also a crapshoot? I can understand that more. I felt the same way until I reread the thread. I think his reaction to goborage's joke about the no-night-kill outed him. Also, his continued active lurking after we told him numerous times that it was anti-town does not bode well for him.

3)

FOS AA

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 80#1036180
I don't like the questions at the bottom of that post, they are numerous but also quite confusing, and more importantly, AA doesn't seem to show actual interest in the answers he got. I think it's highly probable AA is just throwing up questions out there to look town.

The point of the questions were the make Noob rethink what he was saying and put it in his own words. His previous post just seemed to be a weak attempt at supporting the goborage attack on me without really thinking about it himself. I wanted to force him to actually read through the whole discussion and give his opinion on every aspect which wouldn't allow him to simply restate a previous comments by someone else. He responded and it seemed as though he actually read through the whole discussion the second time and I thought it correctly adjusted his opinion of the situation. I didn't think a response was necessary.

Plus, in regard to his last post, I highly doubt that a town IC would come to the conclusion that Grum and Dave are scum together.

Really? Why? What have they done that makes you think they are not scum buddies? But you think a scum IC would come to that conclusion? That is what you are implying. I'd like to hear why you think a scum IC would come to that conclusion.

In fact

Unvote, Vote: Abstract Actuary.

This is a pretty extreme reaction to your initial string of thoughts and makes you seem desperate, although I'm not sure why you would be at this point. camisade wasn't facing much pressure at all. Although he was probably the consensus 3rd best pick for scum at this point. What is your case against me? The things you laid out above are at best a criticism of my scum finding abilities. Nothing that points to me being scum.

================

Wow an AA-lynch supporter. I've been alone for so long.

Really? You'd lynch me right now? You think I'm scum? I know you've been pretty focused on pressuring me and you're obviously

suspicious

of me, but that is much different then being ready to lynch me. You haven't really brought any scum case against me at this point. You've just attacked a few of the points that I've made.

Anyways I think the Grum/me connection is pretty weak. If I was trying to protect him then I did a pretty bad job as Grum has been voted for. Regarding the whole FoS thing, I've explained earlier that it was just a way to get Grum to post. Atm, no, I do not think Grum is scum.

Just because you did a weak job at protecting him doesn't mean the connection is weak. And I would argue that you didn't do a weak job at all. He was acting really scummy. You pointed out some reasons why with FoS. He may have received a vote or two at that time (not sure if he actually did), but he was never in danger of a lynch back then. And he took your advice. The focus wasn't on him again until very recently.

The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It's a knee-jerk reaction to my pressuring AA to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

No, it's not a knee-jerk reaction at all. I was genuinely surprised that you didn't understand the situation. I agree in almost all cases it is completely fine for the town to have multiple conversations. In fact, it is beneficial. But when we have a player who is openly and actively lurking the town has to force him to post. Starting other conversations and pressuring other people allows that player to continue to lurk. It allows him to be forgotten about. The town had decided it was time for Dave to actually play or be lynched or replaced.

In fact, if I had posted my analysis that is exactly what would have happened. You and some others would have focused on my hunting, the people I attacked would have tried to defend themselves (except Dave) and Dave would have continued picking up his prods and not posting, or posting once or twice here and there.

Also, your protection of him extended beyond that post. I'll quote others if you need me to, but you've said other times that you were against lynching Dave.

[Abstract Actuary]

Sorry for the double post. I meant to respond to this too.

The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It's a knee-jerk reaction to my pressuring AA to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

I misunderstood the post a little bit, and I don't suspect such a connection. Actually, the fact that you've chosen someone and pressured them to the end makes you look protown in my eyes. New-scum vote-hop opportunistically, and we can hardly accuse you of that!

Well, vote hopping can be scummy, but focusing on just one player can be even more scummy. Especially when that player isn't facing other pressure. It is the perfect way for scum to leave very little trail. For instance, lets say goborage dies today and he is scum. Most of his posts have been attacking me and it makes it tougher for us to find his partner among the other players.

Also, if you are scum and you've been focusing on one townie all game it allows you to protect your scum buddy when they come under pressure very easily without being obvious that you are doing it. Afterall ScumA has been pressuring TownZ all game so it isn't out of the ordinary, but it serves the purpose of turning the rest of the town's attention away from ScumB who was just being pressured.

In conclusion, focusing on just one player the whole game is actually very anti-town and convenient for good scum.

[Abstract Actuary]

I think we can obtain quite a bit of information from a Dave lynch. I'm not sure who's replacing him, but they've been prodded by now and it looks like they're following the same pattern. Dave's a much safer lynch for today than anyone else here.

Vote: Dave

I don't think a replacement has been found, yet.

[Abstract Actuary]

Based on independent events my suspect list is

Grum
Dave
----big gap-----
goborage
camisade

In addition there is decent reason to believe that Grum and Dave are partners. For one thing, based on interactions in the thread I think any partners other than Dave and goborage are unlikely for Grum.

I don't like this. Your reasons to put grum and dave as partners seem to convenient. I would like to remind you that you put goborage up there in your scumlist because he seemed to be ignoring grum. Now suddenly dave is his scumpartner?

In this paragraph you forget that (1) I've listed other reasons to suspect goborage, including his protection of Dave and (2) that I've listed goborage and Grum as possible scum partners. The attack in this paragraph seems to hinge upon neither of these being true.

For most of day 2 Grum would mention Dave on his suspicion lists and put him 3rd out of 4. In my experience this is a common place to put your scum buddy.

In other words, "the 3rd person in the list is the scum partner because I said so".

I hypothesize that it is a popular way to treat a scum buddy in this situation. Here is the situation: you have one scum partner. There are 5-10 other players. You are going to make a list of suspicious people a few times throughout the day. Your partner has been very mildly suspected by many others for a very easy reason to echo but ignore. As scum, what would you do? What do you think a newb is most likely to do.

I don't think it is likely that a newb-scum will completely ignore their partners existence or obvious scummy actions. I also don't think it is likely that a newb-scum will make a big deal out of it before anyone else is. I would expect a newb scum to consistently mention the actions buried at or near the bottom of their suspicion list.

You are free to have a different hypothesis. For instance, you think Grum is scum. You don't need to know who his partner is to vote for him, of course. But who do you think his partner could be? Why?

Now we get to a point where Grum and Dave are by far the top two suspects in the town and now Grum changes his focus to Dave. This seems like him trying to distance himself now that he realizes one of the two of them will likely go down today.

Another equally viable answer (even more so, in my opinion) is that grum is scum who is attacking town's favorite target in order to save his skin.

Ok, I agree. Scum under increasing pressure would also probably turn to the town's favorite target. Although, if Grum is scum and Dave is town I'm not sure newb-Grum would have waited until the heat was turned up on him to help send town-Dave to the gallows.

Out of the 4 you have accused, who is worthy of your vote?

If there were no replacements coming right now and both were actively playing I would be willing to vote and lynch either Grum or Dave, in that order. But that isn't the situation right now, so I'd prefer to wait for our upcoming and recent replacements to fully join the game before we move on to day 3.

[Abstract Actuary]

Attention: Long post bellow. I would be happy if each player at least addressed the questions I make to them under the "questions" section.

=============

Post Analysis

AA:

(330)
- don't understand the Camisade attack.

Was this a question? Do you want me to elaborate? Or are you summarizing what I was saying?

- attacks Dave because there was no nightkill

Well, not quite. I don't buy into the inactive mafia led to no night-kill. I think the mafia was blocked by the Doctor. But I think Dave's reaction to goborage's suggestions is extremely telling. Dave thought goborage was serious and it scared him.

- "Wait for the replacements before day 3." - If you think you have a valid scum read on someone, why not vote them? Players don't change alignment when they get replaced.

===

Questions:

AA:
- Dave and Grum got replaced. Can you answer the voting question now?

The replacements have entered and enlivened this game nicely. Thanks to all. My top suspect is still Grum (now Artem). If you really want me to vote, I will.

Vote: Artem

.

On the other site I play this game we typically throw around votes much quicker and more carelessly and they are used as a pressure tactic much more often - maybe comparable to a FoS. From what I've experienced on this site, people don't like to vote unless they are ready to lynch that player, which is why I usually reserve my vote until I'm ready to end the day. Although I do like using votes for pressure without necessarily moving to lynch.

To be perfectly honest, with the new level of activity in this thread and all the new theories that are coming out, I'm not quite ready to move to lynch. I'd like to see these run their course a little bit first.

[Abstract Actuary]

@AA: I'm not sure if this was clear, but my previous question was directed at you:

Is there anything specific in my posts you want me to address/defend?

My vote on you is based on your predecessor's scummy play.

I think your basic defense for that is this

Agreed. But MM was a bad player, not a scummy player. There's a difference. Being a bad player makes you an easy target for mafia, who can just say "You're lack of posting/defending is anti-town".

Except that I'm not accusing Grum for "lack of posting/defending".

I'm accusing grum for very specific scumtells (opportunism, wish washing, rolefishing, etc). Not because he is a bad player in general. Of course, you won't adress those specific scumtells, and will hide behind the "grum was just a dumb newbie" banner. But they're there for anyone to see.

That is a very good case. But the best defense I can offer up to you is that Grum was panicking. In that sense, I'm hiding behind the "I have no idea what went inside my predecessor's head" banner.

Which doesn't help to change my opinion.

I'm also a little leery of this bait case you made against camisade-World No.1 Noob. Can you fully explain what your plan was from the beginning and what the goal was?

[Abstract Actuary]

Goborage you make me die a little on the inside. I have a tendency of making my meanings a little faint and you just used it as a weapon, but thats expected from you. When I say I like AA its not some kind of love thing or any kind of favoritism. I like his calm collect train of thought. It's a useful trait in the game. I've been trying to keep this from being a back and forth arguement between the two of us. However you apperently can not control your self from throwing obvious attacks out there. AA hasn't had the chance to be as useful as possible and I would call it insane to use that as a reason to be scum when its only because he has been on the defensive. Now he's going away for a while. great time to attack him isn't it? go ahead and try it but since hes not here to defend himself now, I will not participate in your attack. It is apparent you have not been overly useful your self have you caught any scum yet? no because you haven't had the chance to. At that I beleive you won't not with out real evidence or good reasoning. This is not the salem witch trials your screaming and pointing at people will not persuade me. You have discredited yourself through out the whole game. I would like to see more discusion from others out here not just "I'm here!"'s please. take alook at how fast he jumped on roland. How many prods has he requested for him?

Post 203 for those curious.

[Abstract Actuary]

My vote on you is based on your predecessor's scummy play.

I think your basic defense for that is this

...stuff here...

Which doesn't help to change my opinion.

Fair enough. What do you think of my case against SL? More specifically, who do you think would be a better lynch for this day?

I think it is pretty decent. I would say he is my #3 suspect. I still think Claus's and my case against Grum is stronger. I do think camisade/springlullaby is a viable lynch for today, though.

I have a question for you: what do you think about Dave's play? What is the likelihood he is scum?

[Abstract Actuary]

I will have very limited internet access until the 20th. I'll try to check in once or twice when gone and check in on the game.

[Abstract Actuary]

Just popping in from vacation to answer any questions.

AA:
- Who is your #2 scum, AA?

Dave/strappado

@AA: Where specifically did you find this strong town read?

Just based on his play so far. His reactions, questions and posts. Unless he is truly an experienced player with a new fake ID, then I think Noob is town. Do you want me to pull the posts?

If you're into weak bussing then you'll like this:

lol, this doesn't even make sense. I am weak bussing Cat_Killer/Mokina? Please explain what you mean.

For a guy who says he thought Cat-Killer was scummy D1, he really doesn't seem to have much of a case against her. As mentioned before, AA parked a vote on CK, but never developed a case.

@ AA: Was this all you had against CK? Why didn't you pursue her further D1 or D2?

Yes, this was all I had against CK on day 1. In fact, I still think it was pretty much the best case on day 1. If you don't remember it ended extremely fast. The fact is, there wasn't much to go on during day 1 on anyone. If you disagree, please make a case on someone else based on day 1 actions before the hammer that is stronger.

You criticize my parked vote, yet no one in the game made more than 2 votes for the entire day (from what I can see). In fact you only had 1 vote for another player on day 1. LOL. Strong case!

[Abstract Actuary]

So we either have (a) 1 role blocker, 1 doctor and 4 townies left or (b) 1 goon and 5 townies left.

The fact that the mafia targeted the cop, and successfully, last night points to setup b. If we have setup b, that means that the mafia chose not to kill on night one - or didn't get the kill in in time.

This makes me suspicious of strappade/Dave due to Dave's inactivity and his ultra defensiveness about that possibility in one of his few posts.

We still may have setup a. However, that would require that either the role blocker successfully blocked the doctor or that the doctor took a big gamble (and made a big mistake ) and protected the confirmed innocent. Under this scenario the mafia would have also had to take quite a gamble that the doctor would be blocked or choose to protect Noob.

In short, we still can't be sure what setup we are dealing with.

I'm going to reread the thread with Grum=Scum in my mind, as I think everyone should do at this point. You should always reread the thread when any role player is killed, especially scum.

I'll be especially looking at Grum's posts theorizing about the setup. He probably gave away the setup in those posts.

[Abstract Actuary]

Now, 2 things I don't understand:

1. Why would the doctor not save the cop?
2. If the doctor saved me instead thinking that scum would go for me because they think that the doctor would save cop. Then shouldn't Monika have pointed out who was innocent the next day?

1. The conventional play is for the doctor to save the cop. And the mafia would probably target the confirmed innocent. But the doctor may have tried to out think the mafia and protect the confirmed innocent instead.

2. Mokina wouldn't have known that the doctor would take this gamble, or if a Doctor even exists. She has to assume she will be killed overnight and should give us all of her information.

[Abstract Actuary]

During my early reread these interactions with Grum stuck out to me.

every thing seems to support the fos on rolandofthewhite for me i'm thinking about this as a crossover probably just for now though till proven otherwise...

vote rolandofthewhite

What are your reasons, if you will, other than "every thing seem[ing] to support the fos" and you "thinking about this"?

again still a newb but if your just random voting its fine but it seems jumpy of you as i said and your reasons are alitle strange also your intimidating lol okay not so much the last one... prove me wrong and i'll unvote...

I just don't see Grum as newb scum putting heat on his partner this early in the game. I got the impression from the rest of his posts that he was pretty nervous. That makes me think he doesn't do that.

agreed

unvote

and i'll hold off on revoting due to bandwagon reasons but that is very suspisious. explain for us please...

Hmmm, that fact that he finds a reason to unvote very shortly afterwards makes the bus more possible, but it also is easily explained by a opportunistic Grumscum.

------------

camisade is the first to criticize Grum's punctuation and capitlization in post 127.

Grum responds in 128

OK so what Grum is saying is that #1noob is subconsciously claiming doctor by discussing doc-claim scenarios?

yes and what does capitalization have to do with anything? In here, as an example, I have only not capitalized one word,"yes" where it needs be I'm sorry that when I write quickly I forget to caps lock my post. Its ridiculous for you to request that. This would be easier if I just said it now, I'm a German major at my school, German happens to capitalize every noun. I'm sorry I don't capitalize more often. Now I am done complaining.

My initial thought is that Grum would not respond this way to his partner.

In 139 camisade questions goborage for FoS Grum twice and not voting for him.

In this part of post 139 camisade may be coaching Grum a bit.

goborage one question why are you so very offensive it throws us into a defensive position which as seen with mafiamurkrow isn't helpfull... am I the only one seeing this?

MM was lynched because she wouldn't respond to anything said to her, not because she was put in a defensive position. There is nothing wrong with defending yourself in this game; it's necessary.

----------

In 139 camisade points out that goborage FoS Grum twice but never voted for him. I address this in my 330.

In the middle of day 2 Grum begins to get annoyed with goborage's extreme scum hunting. He even FoSs him here.

Something that just came to me while rereading the last two pages of post is how agressive and un helpfull Goborage is. He is missleading the majority of us first he votes no vote then votes abstract then fos me. he seems very scummy through out the whole thing.

BTW i'm having comp issues at home so I can only post from work(yes i know its unproductive work ethics!) so I can only vote once a day most likely

FOS Goborage

This move surprises me coming from Grumscum. Since on day 1 he was playing so opportunistically and just jumping to the best case. goborage would be a great conduit for that on day 2 with his playstyle. One thing to keep in mind is that Grum may have had time to be significantly coached overnight before day 2.

Then there is that whole Grum meltdown "goborage you make me die a little on the inside . . ."

-------

In the end I think all three of these interactions don't seem like Grum's partner. For the links between Dave and Grum see my post 330.

Through the replacement stage of day 2 my ranking goes

Dave/strappado
---gap-----
camisade/springlullaby/Muerrto
goborage
rolandofthewhite/shaka!!/Claus

I'm now going to reread what happened from the Dave push to the Grum lynch and see if anything more shakes out.

Official Vote Count

Claus - 1 (Muerrto)
strappado - 1 (goborage)

Not Voting - 4 (Abstract Actuary, strappado, Claus, The World No.1 Noob)

4 to Lynch

[Abstract Actuary]

Analyzed individually

First I just highlight some events from the reread that I found interesting. Sorted by player, but mostly done in order of how I came across it.

Dave

Well there isn't much in game stuff to analyze on Dave. There is the "awesome" post following the no night kill. In all honesty though, I had no reason to think he was scum until I read this post.

I think I figured out why there was no NK. The scum were too inactive to send one in by the deadline.

Or it was a trick Perhaps, players that have been consistently active throughtout the game, are the mafia, and did not send in the night action to frame the less active players with a post like this.

Fos: Goborage

goborage suggests (I think jokingly) that there was no night kill because the mafia didn't send in a kill. This implies that the inactive people are the mafia. The most inactive person has been Dave. His response to the goborage post is really telling, in my opinion.

My individual analysis led to this conclusion:

Based on independent events my suspect list is

Grum
Dave
----big gap-----
goborage
camisade

Then I include information that links Dave and Grum making both of their cases for top two scum stronger.

In addition there is decent reason to believe that Grum and Dave are partners. For one thing, based on interactions in the thread I think any partners other than Dave and goborage are unlikely for Grum.

What I mean here is that looking at how other people interacted with Grum on day 1 and day 2 makes all other candidates less likely, indirectly making Dave the more likely.

I go on to say.

For most of day 2 Grum would mention Dave on his suspicion lists and put him 3rd out of 4. In my experience this is a common place to put your scum buddy. Now we get to a point where Grum and Dave are by far the top two suspects in the town and now Grum changes his focus to Dave. This seems like him trying to distance himself now that he realizes one of the two of them will likely go down today.

No, hes straight up lurking and I've been hoping he would stop if he was newb town... hes looking very scummy but I'm not looking forward to another day 1. So I'm holding off just now but hes the number 1 scummiest right next to me... wait...

I also get a slight sense of "annoyed partner" from this post.

[Abstract Actuary]

By the way, with 6 players and apparently no doctor, if we myslinch today, tomorrow the optimal play is to go No Lynch.

This is correct.

Official Vote Count

Claus - 1 (Muerrto)
strappado - 1 (goborage)

Not Voting - 4 (Abstract Actuary, strappado, Claus, The World No.1 Noob)

4 to Lynch

[Abstract Actuary]

Sorry, but I was away over the weekend of the 4th. I should have made a post saying as much.

I didn't see any questions directed at me during my catchup.

Noob, not much I can say. As others have said, Grum did buddy up to me as he did to the other ICs. I am glad that you've tried to reread Grum and find his partner. At this point, if you haven't done so, go ahead and reread me considering the possibility of Grum and I being partners. If you have any issues after that I will try to address them.

The Muerrto/Claus standoff is extremely annoying. With both of them picking and choosing which things the other is saying to respond to and attack and which things to ignore. I think you guys both need to get over whatever happened and move on. If you have an "unanswered question" in a post that is currently being ignored, then repost the question. Instead of saying, "you still haven't answered . . ." Let's assume everything in the past between the two of you has been either answered or ignored/didn't happen. Both of you, move on. If you still have unanswered questions, post them anew and leave the insults out, however subtle or blatant they are.

I still want to analyze the actions past my last reread in more depth, but I won't have much long term free time to devote to this game over the next few days.

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm here but still very short on time. strappado was my top candidate going into today and Claus was pretty low on the list. strappado is still my top candidate, but my vote for her will basically hammer her, since Claus is not on that wagon, yet. I'm going to reread the case(s) against Claus brought up today and then make my decision.

[Abstract Actuary]

Post coming today at some point.

[Abstract Actuary]

Post coming today at some point.

I'm going to have to reneg. Post coming tomorrow at some point. :crosses fingers:

[Abstract Actuary]

After my reread I am still most convinced by Dave/strappado. The case against Dave that I've laid out is still pretty strong. Especially the reaction to the overnight post. My first post of the day that analyzes the possible setup also points strongly to Dave.

strappado's play has also been slightly scummy. Today she has seemed pretty opportunistic, first voting for me, likely with the hope that the goborage attacks from yesterday would provide some traction and add an easy second vote for my wagon. When other things materialized she dropped that and turned her attention to a different more probable wagon. Seems like she is fine with any lynch but her own, basically. Scum would be.

Claus, what is your current opinion and willingness to vote for strappado today?

[Abstract Actuary]

this is the post we've been waiting for from you AA?
You and Claus are the only ones I'm suspecting ATM, gobo to a much lesser extent.

You say that I'd be fine with any lynch, just as scum would be - but I've explicitly said in as many ways as I can that I am in no way in favor of a Muerrto lynch, I'm leaning towards town on gobo, and noob is confirmed town. You're wrong.

The problem is that those two suspects are very convenient for you since at the time you voted for each one they were your best chance at a competing wagon. Both votes were very opportunistic.

[Abstract Actuary]

Claus, what is your current opinion and willingness to vote for strappado today?

I see this was answered to an extent today during my reread. If given the choice would you prefer to end the day soon or take more time to try to convince us about Muerrto?

[Abstract Actuary]

I see this was answered to an extent today during my reread. If given the choice would you prefer to end the day soon or take more time to try to convince us about Muerrto?

I'm not sure what else I can say to convince you/Gobo/Noob about Muerrto. I would appreciate if you gave your opinion on him before we do anything else.

I don't want to state where I stand on the Muerrto-Claus debate if we are going to end up lynching strappado soon. The scum get two kills if we mislynch here culminating in a 3 person endgame scenario and I don't want to make their lives easier in any way by stating who I favor.

this is the post we've been waiting for from you AA?

I agree with this though, expected a bit more. Evidence would be nice.

I was analyzing the day looking for something new against someone other than strappado. There was nothing that made anyone a better suspect than her. My case against her has already been completely laid out. I even referenced the posts where I do so. Would you like me to quote the posts instead?

Here goes nothing.

Wow. I did not see something like this coming. This is a very strange move indeed and I really don't understand it. Why would you claim a role for another player? If she was going down and really was the doc, we would have allowed her to claim. If you were going down instead, you could have said something like, the doc should claim all their information after tonight if one exists.

This was just such an anti-town move on so many levels.

strappado, I'm not sure if it is right to claim now, no matter what the situation actually is. I'd like to think it through some more and I'd like others who are good at endgame stuff to think it through.

I will say this. If there is a doctor out there and they tried to protect Mokina last night, then they should claim, because like Claus says, that means that you were blocked last night and the scum know who you are and will kill you tonight. Which means you should give us the information of who was protected on night 1.

But if there is a doc out there and you did not try to protect Mokina last night, then you should not claim now, because the scum still don't know who you are for sure.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA, sorry if you don't understand my move. The thing is, if I'm correct on my suspicion that Strap is the doc who protected SL/Cam/Muerrto night one, then the game is over. We lynch you or me today, and the other one tomorrow.

I'm willing to go first if that makes you happy Anyway, this discussion is meaningless until strap comes and says whether I'm right or wrong.

I had a big response typed up and then I finally saw how the logic worked out.

Ok, I'll agree with you for now. strappado, if you are the doc, I think claiming is the right move.

[Abstract Actuary]

Well done Claus, well done.

[Abstract Actuary]

By the way, Strap, it doesn't really matter if you find me or AA scummier. Two candidates, two lynches. Just pick one to be lynched first.

Wow. Really?

Ok, now I wish I hadn't deleted and rewritten my post. I had an epiphany which was that I thought you were the real doctor trying to get a fake claim from scum. It was a brilliant play. If that wasn't the case. Ugh. Just ugh. Now we are in a bad spot.

There are two possibilities that aren't covered by your "lynch AA and me in the next two days" scenario.

goborage being scum. I admit he is also very low on my list and you addressed this possibility. But it is a possibility. Even if the second scenario wasn't right. This wasn't a slam dunk.

strappado being the remaining scum with knowledge that no actual doctor exists! You just wrote up his fake claim for him with the groundwork set for you and at least one other to believe him.

[Abstract Actuary]

Alright, I thought about this the whole commute home. My conclusion: Claus is either the worst town player I have ever seen and strappado (or much less likely goborage) is scum or Claus is scum. A good town player would never make a claim for another player, no matter how sure they were. They would try to help the remaining town power player stay hidden. They also would realize that they could be gifting the game to scum by making a believable claim for them.

So the most likely scenario is that Claus is scum and he is making a play. If Claus is scum, then he is role blocking scum who knows that a doctor exists. So he figures out who the doctor is and also figures out who the doctor protected. He's known who the doctor was since last night and he probably figured out who the confirmed townie was pretty early today. That explains why Claus wasn't trying to push the strappado wagon even though it was the only viable wagon other than his own. He knew if he pushed the wagon and she claimed doc that he would be finished. He had to find a way out.

So he pushes the doc claim with all the correct information, which is easy to figure out if you know a doctor is out there but no townie would ever think to try to figure out. What is the motivation? goborage, Noob, Muerrto were you searching for the doctor? I wasn't. You can check one of my early posts on this day which concluded that the doctor likely did not exist. No townie would have been looking for the doctor.

Anyhow, so he pushes the doc claim with all the correct information that leads to the conclusion that he is one of two options remaining and he even says things like "I don't care if you lynch me first." He knows this will basically give him a pass for the first decision and I will be lynched. Then on the second day he will probably leave strappado alive and claim that the doc would have been killed overnight or else he will try to fight for goborage who now must be scum.

I know with how this all looks I will likely be lynched today. It is unfortunate, since at this point I am almost positive that scum is Claus. I beg you as my dying wish (in case I am quick lynched tonight when I'm not around) that you follow through and lynch Claus tomorrow. If Claus gift wrapped the game for strappado (or goborage, for that matter) then so be it. He blew it and there is almost no turning back now. Do not, under any circumstance, let Claus pull this gambit and win. When you find out I am town tonight, remember these words. This is the play. Claus is scum, no matter what he says tomorrow.


I'll repeat the key point that I think reveals Claus as scum to us:

No townie would be looking that hard for the doctor today - only scum who knows a doctor exists would be. Even if they found her they could never be that convinced that they were correct. Especially with no guarantee that a doctor exists. Also they would never force the doctor to reveal.

Noob, Muerrto and goborage, please confirm: no townie was searching that hard for the doctor today. Evidence pointed to no doctor existing.

Vote: Claus

[Abstract Actuary]

Not much to say here but "wow". We had an easy win that we were in the process of coasting to and a townie handed the game to scum. Ugh.

So it was Dave and Grum all along. That sounds familiar.

[Abstract Actuary]

Muerrto was the right kill last night. Once the gift claim was given he was the least likely person to be the remaining scum, by quite a large margin. Although I agree it would have been easier to get Muerrto to vote for Clause then goborage to vote for Claus. I think you had a guaranteed vote for goborage from Clause, whereas I think Clause would have voted for strappado over Muerrto.

[Abstract Actuary]

There's was a "slip" in Claus claiming for strappado, that could have been used to make it seem as if Claus knew the roles, but the whole argument escapes me at the moment. I just remember being "Wow, you can really make a strong argument against Claus right now" during some part of the doc claim discussion.

Oh, right. The fact that he knew that there was a doc meant that he knew that there is a roleblocker, which is something that only mafia knows.

I mentioned that fact in my defensive posts following Clause's claim. It was one of my points that said that either there was no doc or that Clause was a roleblocking mafia who knew there must be a doc and that was the only reason he was looking for one. Otherwise the chances were that there was no doc.

I agree with you that Mokina should not have counterclaimed. I think we would have lynched Artem anyway, based on the timing of the claim, the strength of the claim, and the pre-claim evidence.

[Abstract Actuary]

Btw I did submit the N1 and it was at AA... what happened?

Ha, I actually guessed that I was the target and was protected by the doc. But then as the list of participants shrunk and everyone at one point had shown at least moderate suspicion of me I gave up on that theory.

For awhile on day 2 I actually thought Grum may have been the doc who protected me based on his buddying.