Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[XReyoX]

I'm trying to break it down as one every 100 posts so that it's not going to look like an enormous spam when I finish.

[XReyoX]

#93, Sammich
“At first I just was overwhelmed by the action (last time I had a night start I was replaced, and it didn't go to well) I felt that there were probably better scumhunting targets than Mafiaplayer and I still think that.”

Last time when there was a night start, sammich was scum. I’m wondering what he was referring to when he said he didn’t do too well.

#100, Sammich
Question dodging again. Basicly he is saying he has answered whatever thrown at him but other cant see it when in fact he hasn’t I believe.

#108, jerubbaal
“…because the more traditional tells don't work because he doesn't actually have any comprehensible logic to his action. I'm still reading Mafiaplayer as fairly townie.”
This is where I don’t understand why claiming on the first post and being ridiculous makes someone town.

#110, Near
“My voting wasn't tried to test you. I voted you because I thought your were scummy. But your response must have been satisfactory, because I unvoted u.”
I’m not sure whether I’m reading this correctly but it sounds like Near unvoted Imat and THEN went on to find a reason (being his response was satisfactory). Instead of finding Imat’s response satisfactory, therefore he unvoted. The other way round, which is weird, on the second read.

#115, thephantom
“I feel that it is possible that Mafiaplayer isn't scum and maybe he is just playing poorly. That does not rule out my suspicion of him though.”
Possibly, maybe, ya, but no, but I’m suspicious of him…… Wishy washy. Thephantom was non-commital.

#139, Lowell
“MP is turning it aournd in my book”
Why was that?

#175, Sammich
“Believe this story or not, there's not enough proof I rigged it IMO. … who would really vote for themselves anyway?”
In here, Sammich was trying to use

negative proof

to say he did not lie. The second part is an

appeal to ridicule

to me by emphasizing the counter-intuitive aspect of his act. The

misleading vividness

of the description of his dicerolling is also offputting.

#200, Sammich
“Vote Sammich There, does that make it seem like I'm trying to be fair?”

Appeal to pity

[Lowell]

Xrey, are you picking just the posts you think are important, or what? I don't fully get the organization.

[XReyoX]

I'm re-reading. Some of them are things that I want to emphasize and others are things I just notice or stuffs the I've missed. Near drew almost all my attention for many pages and I think I've missed out some of the other stuffs. Instead of doing a pbp analysis. I think its easier to do it by the whole game.

[Y]

There is no evidence? So you still think Sammich actually rolled the dice? I summarized my reasons for doubting Sammich in post 328 and 330. If you disagree with me, please explain why.

I'm not sure that he rolled the dice, but I see nothing to

prove

otherwise. You can say it's not probable, you can say you don't think it's true, but you can't say you have proof. Proof means you have evidence that shows that the claim in question is a lie. You don't have that. You have reasons to not believe it's true, but you have proof.

You're presenting your subjective ideas as facts to make your case stronger. Your case isn't strong enough and by claiming it is, you're misleading the town.

I'm saying something does not exist, so I have to show nothing to you. You're the one saying you have proof, so I'd like you to show it to me (I want a quote). You've been evading me. I want you to show me what proof you've got.

Y, your strongest argument for lynching me is that I have been leading an investigation that lead no where. You posit that I am a scum trying to confuse town. You qualified my investigation from the start as useless, and still maintain that there is no evidence that Sammich lied.

I want you to respond to actual content of my investigation so far. That is, do you think it's possible that he remembered 11 names? Without writing down the names? All of which happened in 2 minutes? After 10 days later? Do you deny the similarities between his "list" and the order of people who posted here?

You do know you're contradicting yourself, right?
If I had to choose 11 names, I'd probably wouldn't remember the order, not after ten days, but after an hour so. What I would definitely remember, is the way I chose that order, meaning I would be able to recreate the list even a month later. The similarities between the list and the order is exactly that - A way to decide the order.

Your argument:
1. Sammich couldn't remember the list.
2. Sammich mysteriously claims a list very similar to the posters order.

My thought:
Sammich made the list based on the posters order, therefore he could remember it.

You're misrepresenting things to support your case. Cases should relay on facts, or at least good assumptions. Fact's shouldn't be fabricated to support theories.

You're straw-manning and misrepresenting facts. When pointed, you say those facts are true with no real proof.
I

confirm vote Near

. If it was for me, you'd be lynched already.

XReyoX, you're not agreeing with me and I posted a significant amount of content. Was there noting to point out about my posts?

[Near]

I'm not sure that he rolled the dice, but I see nothing to

prove

otherwise. You can say it's not probable, you can say you don't think it's true, but you can't say you have proof. Proof means you have evidence that shows that the claim in question is a lie. You don't have that. You have reasons to not believe it's true, but you have proof.

I am not sure if I have ever referred to my argument against Sammich as "proofs". But if you are trying to force words into my mouth, what we mean by proof in this game is actually a "proof beyond reasonable doubt". See below.

You're presenting your subjective ideas as facts to make your case stronger. Your case isn't strong enough and by claiming it is, you're misleading the town.

Wrong. I took what Sammich said as facts. What ideas of mine were subjective? The problem is that when I took Sammich's account of this dice roll incident as facts, there were many holes that could not be explained unless we assumed beyond reasonable circumstances. You may argue that this last conclusion is subjective, and yes I agree. But do decide for yourself.

You do know you're contradicting yourself, right?
If I had to choose 11 names, I'd probably wouldn't remember the order, not after ten days, but after an hour so. What I would definitely remember, is the way I chose that order, meaning I would be able to recreate the list even a month later. The similarities between the list and the order is exactly that - A way to decide the order.

Your argument:
1. Sammich couldn't remember the list.
2. Sammich mysteriously claims a list very similar to the posters order.

My thought:
Sammich made the list based on the posters order, therefore he could remember it.

You misunderstand my point. The fact is, Sammich was the fifth player to post on this game. Since he didn't know the order of players who would post after him, his list should not be similar to the list of the players who posted in this game.

You're misrepresenting things to support your case. Cases should relay on facts, or at least good assumptions. Fact's shouldn't be fabricated to support theories.

Be specific which facts I am fabricating. Your argument jumps from what I said to conclusion to another conclusion without any concrete bridge.

Your feeble defense of Sammich without actually having a case makes you very suspicious.

[Incognito]

Last time when there was a night start, sammich was scum. I’m wondering what he was referring to when he said he didn’t do too well.

About this, do you know which game it was specifically where he had a night start? I've read through that Sammich post and it doesn't look like he reveals whether or not he was town or scum; just that the game was a night start. I've also taken a little more time to look through his gaming history and couldn't find any evidence that would suggest that ANY of his games had night starts. I didn't bother looking before but I think now that I've looked and not found anything it's another noteworthy thing to add to the Sammich collection.

[gorckat]

I really need to stop trusting that people don't misrepresent checkable facts and just start checking them myself. I twice trusted people on this post order/dice assignment crap.

You misunderstand my point. The fact is, Sammich was the fifth player to post on this game. Since he didn't know the order of players who would post after him, his list should not be similar to the list of the players who posted in this game.

What? He based 1-5 of players who had posted (including himself). Ergo: the second die is people not on that list...people who had not posted, in other words.

The order of his second die is not the same as those people who posted after him. He was never asked if they were listed in 1-6 order (which would have been a good question, in hindsight).

[Near]

What? He based 1-5 of players who had posted (including himself). Ergo: the second die is people not on that list...people who had not posted, in other words.

Neither list exactly matches the order of the posters in this game. However, they are similar. If you are arguing that the similarities in both list were just a case of "luck", then how did he remember the 6 people on the second die?

This brings yet another point. The first dice does not match the exact order of the posters, but how did he remember the exact order after 10 days?

He was never asked if they were listed in 1-6 order (which would have been a good question, in hindsight).

One more thing to add: Sammich never specified, even when questioned if he actually remembered those 11 people's order, that he got the first list from the order of the posters. Instead he credited his

short memory

.

[Imat]

#5,
#68, Imat“I got angry jerubaal, stupid plays like Townie claims serve to point out the Power Roles that much faster.”
#84, Imat“As to the "Getting angry" that you still believe Sammich, I explained it, very poorly I'll admit, but I wasn't angry. If every player continued claiming I would've been angry.”
So which one was it? Angry or not angry?

Wow, I didn't even realize this...I don't know how to answer to that...But, I think, honestly, I was angry at the time, though immediately cooling off isn't exactly what I'd say. I was angry, I got over it. There was quite a bit of time between my angry post and my analytical posts. But as for my contradiction...I don't even know how that happened...Sorry for the confusion. Its time for a reread...

[Lowell]

I'm due a reread as well. Here are the first 8 or 9 pages. Look for more tomorrow or Thursday, along with stunning analysis and devastation conclusions.

5- MP claims vanilla townie, votes avinashv
7- XRey votes MP for being a dumbass
10- Dice-gate begins, Sammich self-votes
14, 16- Imat, MP vote Sammich for self-vote
25- jerubbaal metagames, votes Lowell for avin kill
35- Incog asks to know the meta that causes jerub's vote
36- Incog wants Near to post
41- Jerub asks for full claim from MP
45- Incog votes MP for being a dumbass
49- cat_herder votes MP for being a dumbass
54- Sammich claims vanilla
55- Xrey confused
57- Imat complains of vanilla claims, asks for EXACT role
59- Incog points out vanilla PM is given on Page 1 [suspicious, who is he trying to tell?]
60- Imat justifies the "claim" gambit [good post]
61- Jerub votes Imat for fearmongering [also good post, hadn't thought of that]
65- Incog backs off, votes Near
67- Y enters, suspects MP and Sammich for saying "townie" instead of "townsperson"
70- MP votes Y [OMGUSy]
73- Near votes sammich for vouching for MP [good reason]
74- Y posts more thoughts, about jerub and Sammich, asks for more from Near
76- MP leads w/ 3 votes
79- Lowell votes Y for prompting Near
81- On Incog's advice, Lowell switches vote to Near
82-84- Sammich, Y, and Imat all disagree w/ Lowell
85- Near votes Imat for overplaying his "displeasure" in early developments
93- Sammich FOSs Lowell for following Incog
103- Xrey posits "MP as Jester" theory
108- jerub vouches for MP's dumbassery, is suspicious of sammich wagon, votes Near [good post]
111- jerub elaborates MP defense [good]
112- Incog defends jerub [strange post]
113- MP votes Y, defends behavior [good post]
115- post from thephantom, thinks it is "possible" MP isn't scum [useless filler]
116- Y continues attack on MP [seems gratuitous]
129- Jerub submits "value lynch" case on MP [kinda gutsy]
136-137- Xrey, destructor support MP lynch to keep him from getting to endgame
131,139,141- Incog, Lowell, sammich do not want to lynch MP
143- Lowell explains post 79 re: Near/Y
144,147- Xrey, Incog disagree... sort of
164- Near summarizes, clears XRey, Imat, MP, suspects Lowell, Jerub
175- "Dice-gate" breaks out between Near and sammich
176,177- Incog, Imat call out Near for post 164 [good]
178,179- Near defends
187- Xrey and Incog jump into "Dice" fray, Xrey supports Near, Incog against
203- After arduous debate, Sammich confesses to inventing dice roll
207- Near votes sammich
216- jerub supports Near's case against sammich

n.b.- This organizational style is for my benefit only. Just posting my notes as I make them. For recall purposes.

[Ripley]

Limited access till Sunday evening, sorry. I'll try to keep up as much as possible.

[Mizzy]

I'm about to be out of town for a bit (woot for an all-expenses-paid trip for a job interview) and will be only able to post little. I'll be back Saturday!

[XReyoX]

#216, jerubbaal
“You(Near) seem to be taking quite a bit of offense at a very minor point. You also assume that everything the scum do, they do deliberately.”
QFT

#224, Lowell
“FTR, this dice debate is useless.”
Stopping discussion without suggesting a direction about where we can go instead.

#276, Ripley
“I’m starting to wonder if MP has some private win condition relating to invalid votes”
I don’t think so, by reading MP previous games. It’s more likely to be a poor play.

#279, Y
“I believe Near saw a growing wagon and decided to jump in, using the most recent accusation.”
Sammich at that time when Near voted for him, has only got 1 vote. While MP had 3, phantom had 1 and Y had 1. Do you consider that Sammich as a growing wagon when I lay it out clearly?

#326, gorckat
“If you were saying that I was taking a middle road, fence-riding postition in order to go whichever way the wind blew, that would be understandable. But you're not; you're picking and choosing what you want to say is scummy.”
What do you mean by picking and shooing what Lowell wants to say is scummy. I think his accusation about how he was suspicious about the way you were defending sammich was a fair point.

#334, gorckat
“To answer incognito, I think that Y is pushing the analysis along more than a scum would, especially in such a quick-posting game.”
I feel that this is not a good answer and it is in fact the reverse of the “too townie” accusation. No?

#337, Near
“I believe Sammich is a jester.”
!!! I’ve missed this totoally. Will comment on it after the whole thing.

#366, Mizzy
“what did I replace? No wonder Destructor was so nice to me when he asked me to replace in”
I think I’m metagaming. But I think this kind of means that Mizzy/MP is town if she is not lying about Destructor being so nice when asking her to replace in.

[XReyoX]

Y: I really don't know. I guess its either your points have been said and/or I've commented on it before. I'll try to read your posts again. What do you think I'll have to comment on about your posts urgently?

[XReyoX]

I meant which posts would you like me to comment on first.

[gorckat]

You attributed 334 to me, but it was Lowell.

As for my own 326, I did phrase that clumsily. The way he said he didn't care what I was doing currently (voting Sammich after defending him) struck me as odd- he was looking at my actions out of context and ignoring what came after.

[XReyoX]

Last time when there was a night start, sammich was scum. I’m wondering what he was referring to when he said he didn’t do too well.

About this, do you know which game it was specifically where he had a night start?

This is the game

#643

The game was abondoned but in 643 and 644, his scumbuddies revealed that he was the remaining scum. I assume that Fonz and Jordan are telling the truth since they have no reasons to lie after the game had ended.

The more I read, the more I'm suspicious of sammich's attitude about the night start. I think this is something worth discussing.

[XReyoX]

You attributed 334 to me, but it was Lowell.

As for my own 326, I did phrase that clumsily. The way he said he didn't care what I was doing currently (voting Sammich after defending him) struck me as odd- he was looking at my actions out of context and ignoring what came after.

Sorry, messed up up the tags.

[Lowell]

Here's the rest:

225- Sammich denies making up dice roll
231- Near continues to press sammich
244- Ripley enters, attacks sammich and Imat, defends Near and MP [good post]
247- Y votes Near, disagrees strongly with Ripley
250- XRey disagrees with Y's reasoning [oddly doesn't mention Near]
251- Y expands case on Near
253- MP returns, votes Near to L-1, for reasons of "not all on the bandwagon can be scum" [uh, okay]
256- Incog unvotes, says wagon moving too fast [suspicious]
260-262- Near defends against charges [mediocre]
263-265- XRey, Y, and MP all say that "Dice-gate" is stupid and quesiton why Near cares so much [true]
267- jerub unvotes, suspects MP, supports Near
276- Ripley wants clear closure to dice situation, suggests we take precautions against MP, who may have "private win condition" [a stretch, I think]
277- gorckat calls Ripley's post a reach [good], wants to focus on MP, however
281,282- Xrey, gorckat vote sammich for evasiveness [good]
285- Imat defends sammich [seems a bit off...]
286-290- questions for sammich pile up
300- Ripley begins to suspect jerub, defends Near [good post]
309- Imat takes on Ripley, attacks Near [also good]
313- Lowell says he no longer suspects Y
318- Ripley responds to Imat's 309
320- XRey sort of agrees with Imat about the oddness of Near's townlist, pressures Lowell to talk more
323- Lowell returns, calls Xrey, Sammich, and MP innocent; votes gorkat for buddying up to sammich [good, natch]
324- gorkat points out that he's now voting sammich
328- Near again returns to sammich case, hints at strange role for sammich (scum-guardian?)
329- Incog begins to drink the Near kool-aid, wants to quesiton sammich upon his return
330-332- Near's case against sammich continues
335- Ripley adds to sammich case [looking better, actually]
337- Near thinks sammich is a jester, unvotes [what??]
340- Imat thinks Near has lost it, votes Near [good]
350s- Everyone disagrees w/ "jester" idea
366- Mizzy replaces MP, complains about her predecessor
367- jerub votes Near, suggests Near/sammich team [not smart]
373- Ripley comes to Near's defense, calls him town whipping boy [exactly right]
375- gorckat votes Near for quick change of mind on sammich, puts him at L-1 [again, not smart]
381- Mizzy unvotes Near
385- gorckat FOSs Lowell for being non-commital
393- Near declares sammich and Y his leading suspects [good post]
398- Xrey unvotes sammich

Thoughts upcoming...

[Lowell]

A few things:

I believe

Mizzy, Near, XreyoX

, and

Jerub

to all be pro-town.

Mizzy

because I believe the authenticity of MP's blunder at the beginning. I may be a sucker for WIFOM, but I do NOT see MP's team killing the vig, then him jumping in and acting confused and voting the vig as likely. And as far as I know, that's the extent of the case against him, so that to me is nothing.

Near

I've had a change of heart about. Ripley's post where he calls Near a "whipping boy" is exactly right. He's being blamed for a lot of stuff in this game. I still believe the dice-roll issue is not a huge one, but I buy his interest in it as genuine. And it is a bit alarming just how QUICKLY votes started to pile up on him when he broached the idea of sammich as jester. While I disagree w/ both the dice-roll-as-important logic as well as the sammich-as-jester theory, I can't fathom a situation when one scum would so openly reverse his case on another scum close to deadline on D1. And if sammich is town and Near is scum, the scenario makes even less sense.

Xrey

I just get straight townie tells from. No other reason. He pushes the conversation, varies his attacks, and just looks town to me.

jerub

I feel is town largely for his behavior early in the game. He hasn't overly impressed me of late, but through page 9 I was

convinced

he was town and I haven't had any compelling reason to change that.

Some suspects:

Ripley

. I wince a little as I realize the case against him is really going to come down to "being too smart." But he seems to have a knack of being in the right place at the right time, saying the right thing. No vote or FOS here, but I don't quite feel great about him yet.

Imat

. Posts 285 and 340 seem off, for different reasons. I can very much envision the sammich as town, Imat as scum relationship between the two, based on how he has defended sammich during his many troubles. His post 340 seems fine in isolation, but strikes me as not to be taken on its surface (he had previously suspected Near for other reasons). I do, however, like his early behavior, particularly towards MP.

Y

. Again, a change of heart. He's flying above the surface. The higher above the surface he flies, the less we hear of him.

Sammich

. I'm beginning to be sold on the sammich argument, after complaining about it for so long. What is he avoiding? He's not a jester, he's not a scum-protector, I think he's just evasive. Some of his posts even strike me as if he's playing BEYOND the endgame. So that when he dies, he'll say "you guys are so stupid, you lynched me for the wrong reasons" even though he's scum. Still, I'm not totally sold on this case.

The others I haven't put into place yet. I'll try to put that together when I can.

For now,

unvote, vote Imat

[Near]

I really want to see Sammich's replacement make a debut sometime soon...

[Incognito]

This is the game

#643

The game was abondoned but in 643 and 644, his scumbuddies revealed that he was the remaining scum. I assume that Fonz and Jordan are telling the truth since they have no reasons to lie after the game had ended.

The more I read, the more I'm suspicious of sammich's attitude about the night start. I think this is something worth discussing.

Ah, I didn't bother looking at the mod-abandoned game. Thanks for the link. It sucks that Sammich is being replaced now though and won't be around to discuss the issues that have been brought up related to the night start.

[Incognito]

Ripley's post where he calls Near a "whipping boy" is exactly right. He's being blamed for a lot of stuff in this game. I still believe the dice-roll issue is not a huge one, but I buy his interest in it as genuine. And it is a bit alarming just how QUICKLY votes started to pile up on him when he broached the idea of sammich as jester. While I disagree w/ both the dice-roll-as-important logic as well as the sammich-as-jester theory, I can't fathom a situation when one scum would so openly reverse his case on another scum close to deadline on D1. And if sammich is town and Near is scum, the scenario makes even less sense.

Also about this, I disagree with yours and Ripley's take on Near as this so-called "whipping boy". Speaking for myself here, I personally felt like there were certain actions especially early on that were questionable coming from Near which I've elaborated on in my previous posts. I was open to giving Near the benefit of the doubt and allowing him to finish his Sammich investigation to see if it lead anywhere. When his conclusion about Sammich was that he may be a Jester, I felt like the whole investigation just seemed like a waste of time especially since a number of us mentioned our feelings about the dice rolling incident (his Jester conclusion now seems like it was a newb-tell though as opposed to a waste of time since he seemed to not know much about mini-game set-ups). Yes, I think it's a point in Near's favor that he does genuinely seem to have interest in figuring this whole thing out, and I found his 328 to be extremely enlightening but to call him a "whipping boy" seems like a bit of an exaggeration.

[Y]

I meant which posts would you like me to comment on first.

I don't know. It just seemed odd that you disagree with me (You did openly disagreed with me), but you have nothing to say about it in your game analysis.

#279, Y
“I believe Near saw a growing wagon and decided to jump in, using the most recent accusation.”
Sammich at that time when Near voted for him, has only got 1 vote. While MP had 3, phantom had 1 and Y had 1. Do you consider that Sammich as a growing wagon when I lay it out clearly?

Yes, I do. At the time I, and other people, were starting to put pressure on Sammich. While we weren't voting (I wasn't), the notion of a building case was there. Near just jumped early on the train, so he could later claim he was there from the beginning, and didn't join only after it was a real wagon.

I get the feeling that Near is clinging to a weak case, and he's really afraid to let it go.
Townies want to lynch scum, so they'll attack people based on their thoughts, while scum try to get people lynched and are afraid that they might do something that'll make them look scummy.

I know it doesn't look like much, and that it's too hard for me to explain exactly what it is, but there's the feeling of a player trying to do exactly what he thinks would be expected from him. That's not a town play.

If you're meta-gaming, I'd like you to read Vegetable Mafia (gorckat doesn't have to, for obvious reasons). Please look at the D1 lynch and try to understand what kind of case I'm pushing.