Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[Imat]

Lowell, I like your posts, but I have a question. I can understand why you think 285 is off, I wouldn't say Scummy, but I made a leap in judgment that, looking back, I'm not so sure of anymore. But Whats off about 340? You say in your analysis that its good, but then you say its off? I felt that Near's actions towards Sammich seemed a lot like Scum Buddy taking advantage of a chance to look Pro-Town. I'd like to know your take on this, so I can understand how you found it to be "off."

[XReyoX]

Near:

Post your thoughts on (all) other people please if you can. A detailed one. Thanks.

[XReyoX]

Y:

I see what you mean. If Near is scum he is probably clinging onto his case.

[Near]

Near:

Post your thoughts on (all) other people please if you can. A detailed one. Thanks.

OK. Without referring to people's previous posts, I will make an attempt to explain my thoughts so far in the game. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I will start with Sammich: In the beginning he posted pretty frequently, but after we pointed out the dice incident, he almost disappeared. I know it's very unlikely, but the possibility of Sammich being a jester is still in the back of my mind. The fact is, he has never voted for anyone other than himself in this game. The ridiculous dice roll account kind of makes sense if he only has an ability to vote on himself. But maybe I am just completely wrong here. If he doesn't have a post restriction or he's not a scum, then he's my top candidate for lynch today.

jerubbal: Beside the meta thing that he said was "sarcastic" and I still can't find the sarcasm in either posts, I find him suspicious. During the dice investigation, he has said that Sammich's lying about the dice incident is pretty important, but yet did not strongly voice his opinion or tried to question Sammich. If I assume that Sammich is a scum, then this makes jerubbal scummy in my eyes. I think it's a good job of distancing himself without putting any more pressure on Sammich.

Plus when I came up with the Sammich is a jester theory, he readily voted against me. (Actually there were another person who voted me I think). I can't really understand why. Out of about 7-8 games I am playing right now, this is the first time I claimed the possibility of jester. I have never played with a jester and didn't know it was that uncommon in mini game.

Explain why would I possibly want to claim jester against Sammich if my alignment was a scum.


Y: I have written that he's my top scum suspect, but I do/did have some conflicting thoughts about him that I have not yet mentioned. To summarize why I find him suspicious, he is defending Sammich in a way that does not look reasonable to me. Almost every time I try to make a case against Y, he tries to shut me down. He called my facts fabricated, calls my investigation useless, blames me for lack of investigation on anyone else. So this makes me think maybe he and Sammich are partners.

It's interesting, though, that it's this very fact that makes me doubt if Y can be a scum. He is very insistent on calling the Sammich investigation useless. In my eyes, the evidence presented "prove" that Sammich has lied. I also expect other people who have carefully read my post to think the same. It's the fact that Y is so clear and loud about his stance against something that looks to be hard to argue against that makes me wonder if Y is a townie who just has an opposing view from me.

But then maybe I can use the same qualification that he used to describe me - it would make him too suspicious now to change his stance.

XReyoX: For some reason, I don't suspect you at ALL. I do know saying this would make me scummy and could look like an attempt to buddy up - but it's what I feel. I think it was Lowell who said " just get straight townie tells from. No other reason. He pushes the conversation, varies his attacks, and just looks town to me." I think it'd be easy to just agree with what Lowell said, but the truth is, I am not sure why. I just don't think you are a scum.

Ripley: He has been very very helpful in defending me. I think without him, I would have been lynched already. He makes good thoughtful posts, and often explains what I mean better than I can. He has been very useful to me so far, but I am still concerned about his being scum and is buddying up to me. I really doubt it though. I feel like he could have lynched me pretty easily if he wanted to. But the who knows, maybe he's trying to set up for late game.

Lowell: I was initially suspicious of him because of meta game of avinashiv dying. But his last post is a thoughtful one and maybe he's trying to scum hunt? Or maybe it's the fact that he agrees with me and Ripley now, and his plan to buddy up with me has worked. Anyway, I would say I don't have a good read on him.

Mizzy: I don't know yet. Her unvoting the vote placed by MP is expected strategy even if Mizzy was a scum. We will have to see how she plays from here on. But, I didn't think MP was a scum even before he replaced. I think the fact that he got the role name correctly outweighs the fact that he voted suspiciously and wanted to kill me - because he's just that kind of player.


I know there are couple of people I have missed: Incognito and Imat maybe more. So, to be continued after I do a re-read.

[destructor]

.::] Vote Count [::.

Near (4)

- Y, Imat, jerrubaal, gorckat

Imat (1)

- Lowell

Not Voting (6) - Ripley, Incognito, Niv, Near, Mizzy, XReyoX

Six

votes makes a lynch.

Some good news - Niv replaces Sammich!
He's said he may not have time to get involved until Saturday. In light of this replacement, I'm extending the deadline by 9 days (the amount of time since Sammich flaked).

New Day 1 deadline: 11 Apr, 03:00 GMT.

[Niv]

there is a good chance of "the longest post any of you have ever read" is coming friday night or saterday.

i'll try and catch upbefore then but i doubt it

[Near]

Niv, could you do a quick vote and unvote on someone other than myself?

[Niv]

Vote Niv

It's always my opening move.

[Niv]

UnVote Niv

Anything for you near

[Near]

UnVote Niv

Anything for you near

Sorry, I meant can you vote/unvote for someone other than yourself or me?

[Lowell]

Imat, I still don't buy the Near case nor those who are supporters of it. Vote stands.

[Niv]

Vote Y

Why

[Niv]

Beacuse

UnVote Y

[Lowell]

Also I'm relatively sure I did this already, but:

unvote, vote Imat

Yeah, missed it. Fixed. - Mod

[XReyoX]

What are you doing Niv =_=?

[XReyoX]

I think it’s important for me to present two detailed cases. Due to the amount of effort we’ve all spent on Near and his interactions between Sammich, who I believe is scum at the moment, they are to me the two candidates who will be providing the most information for us to work on tomorrow.

Since I believe Sammich is scum, I’ll put his case together first. The most significant wagon was Near’s, since page 5, with at least 3 votes all the time and occasionally going up to 4 or 5. Sammich on the other hand had never gotten over 2 votes. Looking at the vote count, it fits perfectly with my suspicion that Sammich is scum whilst Near is innocent. By pushing Near to his lynch, and stopping people from looking at Sammich, the scums can be killing two birds with one stone. Not to mention that the two wagons are somewhat imbalanced, in my point of view. If Near is scum, I’d believe the attack against him would have been less vigorous (perhaps this is not the exact word to use, but I guess you know what I mean), every single point he has presented was accused by at least one person, at some point, to be scummy. He hung on to his case earlier, then someone said that he was too scared to leave it alone after his attack. He backed off afterwards then someone pointed out that he was wasting our time. I’ll talk about this later.

<<-Sammich->>

//1. Voting pattern.\\
None.
He voted himself, twice. The first one, I take it as a joke vote, regardless of whether he has rolled his dice or not. He might have lie, which I believe so, but that is not the point. His self-vote at the beginning shows nothing. His second vote #200 is an appeal to pity. Non-productive. Not a major scumtell but I can see that as something that is only-beneficial to the scums.

//2. Scumhunting.\\
Little to none.
#93, Sammich
“FoS Incognito too, at one point he urges Lowell to vote Near, then berates him for falling into his trap. Or it was sarcasm, in which I substitute that FoS and place it on Lowell for just following Incognito around like a lost dog or something.”
This is the only view on other people amongst all his posts. He is even wishy washying his FoS. I feel that it can be flipped both ways depending on how it goes. Incognito <-> Lowell.

//3. Roleclaim.\\
“I just got called a townie in my role pm.”
Firstly, he couldn’t have been called a townie in his role pm. Secondly, it wasn’t the right time. Thridly, he hasn’t got a right reason to do so, imo. He can believe Mafiaplayer is a townie for many other reasons, but “because he is a townie too” seems weird. And claiming at that point can only cause damage to the town. Saying he has deleted his PM, thus not getting the rolename right, seems very convenient as ripley has pointed out, plus he can remember when he did it as well.

//3. Diceroll.\\
It wasn’t impossible, but is very highly unlikely. The list is disjointed. He remembered what he has rolled, who was on which dice, which side the coin came up with. Every single step, every single detail was described, like a cam recorder was there. Provided that it was 11 days after the event, I think it is unlikely. I believe he is using misleading vividness to convince us that he rolled the dice as I’ve pointed out before. While on the same posts with his diceroll, he said “Believe this story or not, there's not enough proof I rigged it.”, he is using both burden of proof and negative proof in the same sentence to persuade us. The next, he said “Anybody can simply go offline and fabricate a story like this but who would really vote for themselves anyway?”. To me, he is using appeal to ridicule to further reinforce his case.
#203“If its a joke vote, admit that it's a joke vote. Don't try do make something up later on in the game so that you seem innocent…” I asked. “Fine it was a joke vote.” Sammich answered. This post, to me, looks like he has given up his story and admitted that he was making things up. If he, indeed, rolled the dice, it is more natural for him to stand by his story and said it was a dicevote. Imat think that this post is a joke itself. I’ll discuss below.

//4. Evasiveness\\
There is no doubt Sammich was evading questions, not only mine, but many else as well. Other than the description of his diceroll, everything else was not clear. An example would be his claim for his vote being a jokevote. Most people didn’t pick up the exact meaning of his post, thus causing again a lot of confusion. After people had started questioning him about his vote again (which is an indication of our uncertainty), it seems to me that he decided to stick with his story again. This is what I feel.
He did not answer the questions addressed to him properly. And no, “Yes, yes, no, short term memory, facepalm” are not satisfactory answers to me. Refusing to answer questions openly is not something I’d considered protown either. ->Near, “Why the heck isn't Sammich answering my questions? Why is he not answering anyone else's questions?”. Sammich, “Maybe because I have other things to do than sit at the computer and speculate about some user rolling a dice?”

//5. Night start\\
This, I believe, is the main reason I’m suspecting sammich at the moment. Firstly, I’ve never played in a game with a night start before and I don’t see how it is different from other games with a day start. I fail to see why sammich is so excited or overwhelmed by this.
#54“It's been a while since I had a night start, I'm having fun.”
#93“last time I had a night start

I was replaced, and it didn't go to well

”
#200“ “But if you really think I was trying to do this to make me seem "fair",

why? In a night start? Voting myself in a night start?

”
Last time when he had a night start, he didn’t go to well, he was scum, the scumteam would have a very very small chance of winning if the game had continued. See This game and the two following posts which summarize how bad the situation the scums were in (by JordanA24 and LaptopGun if you can’t be bothered to read the whole page through.#646 & #647
When he said he didn’t go too well, it could mean two things. He was either referring himself as a scum or as a player in general. If he was only referring him being a player in general, I fail to see the excitement for having a night start. However, and this is important, if he is a scum again, then this fits in very well. Because this game would be like a second chance for him, as a scum, to have a nightstart, which means he gets a free kill. Combining with mafiaplayer being so out of order and all that (he referred these as the overwhelming actions), which is beneficial for the scum because it draws away people’s attention and provide countless opportunities for the scums to join in the create mayhem, I can start to understand how a player can be overwhelmed and messes up his claim and whatever. The second post which he mentioned about the night start. He was replying to Y’s question: “I still want to know

how do you know Mafiaplayer's real role

.“Only scums know MP’s role and no, it wasn’t even an answer to Y’s question. In his third mentioning of the night start, he was referring to his diceroll. Firstly, nightstart and fairness do not, in anyway that I can think of, has any link. However, a nightkill can. I’m more inclined to think that, with him being scum in my mind, he generated this kill that way and killed the vig which is good news for the scums.

//6. Wagon\\
Avoiding his questions, not contributing, potential lying, the night start comment, roleclaiming and vouching for mafiaplayer, etc…I mean, if he is a target of the scum, he would have been lynched by now I believe. Two votes were what he had got once. I just don’t feel right about this. Perhaps everyone can see through this better than I do. Perhaps I’m too focused and taking those posts the wrong way. There seems to be some apparent reasons I’m missing.

I’m hoping you guys can give a thought about these, although I agree that Near is also a good lynch for today in terms of the info that he’s going to give us if his role is revealed. Since our vig is dead and I doubt there would be another one, I think, at the very least, the cop should consider investigating sammich aka his replacement Niv.

Niv, could you also comment on sammich and try to explain his thought process as well although I understand you cannot represent him. Thanks.

As a side note, I had some suspicion on those who were/was trying to prove sammich was telling the truth and how he could have done the whole process of his dicerolling. But I believe unless we can prove sammich’s alignment, it is too far to come to conclusion.

I’ll post about Near next.

[XReyoX]

Mod:

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to ask this. But when you said sammich didn't pick up his prod, do you mean it is still in your outbox or it is in your sentbox but he didn't reply. Thanks.

[Y]

I’m hoping you guys can give a thought about these, although I agree that Near is also a good lynch for today in terms of the info that he’s going to give us if his role is revealed. Since our vig is dead and I doubt there would be another one, I think, at the very least, the cop should consider investigating sammich aka his replacement Niv.

Guiding a power-role. Noted.

[Near]

What are you doing Niv =_=?

I told him to do that. I wanted to test the theory of whether or not Niv can vote on someone else. Maybe there's a total number of times Niv can vote on someone else. Or maybe i'm just paranoid.

XReyoX, your latest post summarizes Sammich well. But I don't agree with your point toward the end of your post. You said that I'm a "good lynch for today in terms of the info that he's going to give us". It also seems that you seem to think I am innocent. If I'm a townie and lynched, what kind of information is this going to you guys? Prob not much? I mean, is it going to make you think that Sammich is more likely to be a scum if I am revealed as town?

If I turn out to be a scum though it might give us some more information. It would probably make Sammich and Y less suspicious. It will make Ripley more suspicious probably, too. But anyway, this isn't going to happen. You will be disappointed.

Btw, I am curious as to what Soothsayer is?

[Near]

Vote Niv

Sorry Niv, you just got here. It's not your fault.

[Incognito]

Btw, I am curious as to what Soothsayer is?

Soothsayer isn't an actual mafia role. I think it's just like a fortune teller added as an NPC by destructor purely for flavor and nothing else.

He hung on to his case earlier, then someone said that he was too scared to leave it alone after his attack. He backed off afterwards then someone pointed out that he was wasting our time.

Reyo, I really dislike the above snippet from your Sammich post. Earlier on this page, you had the following to say to Y:

Y:

I see what you mean. If Near is scum he is probably clinging onto his case.

in which you agreed with him, but in your most recent post about Sammich (I know you haven't gone into Near yet) you seem to make comments like what I quoted above that imply that you don't want to get your hands dirty ("someone said he was too scared", "someone pointed out he was wasting our time"). But the thing is you had agreed with some of these comments about Near.

Why does it seem like you're borrowing from other people's ideas of players and agreeing with them but then brushing those ideas off as not your own?

[XReyoX]

Incognito:

?? no. Sorry, it's probably my english. They weren't my own and I wasn't borrowing it. I stated i don't think Near was scum earlier.#398Thats why the "If" was there. Y was telling me where he was coming from and I was saying I understand how he's viewing this. I was using "someone" because I can't remember who commented on it and I didn't bother looking back because it wasn't about Near anyway.

[XReyoX]

Near:

Don't be stupid. I don't think he has a restriction.

I don't know what a soothsayer is but is it relevant. Isn't that an NPC?

If you are town. It probably means those who are piling on you are scums. I don't think townie alone can get you lynched.

[XReyoX]

Y, Incognito:

Are you waiting for others to see how they would respond to the main bit (the sammich bit) before laying down your views? If you're to comment on it, I'd appreciate you to respond to the maybe more important ones, other than the ones at the beginning and at the end first.

[Incognito]

Y, Incognito:

Are you waiting for others to see how they would respond to the main bit (the sammich bit) before laying down your views? If you're to comment on it, I'd appreciate you to respond to the maybe more important ones, other than the ones at the beginning and at the end first.

No, your summary does a good job of condensing the issues that have been mentioned within thread about Sammich's play into one post. I just took issue with the beginning portion of it because I felt like you were trying to keep your hands clean. I'm more interested in seeing what Sammich's replacement, Niv, and Mafiaplayer's replacement, Mizzy, have to say about the game before finally putting all of the pieces together from Day 1 to come to a good conclusion about the correct play for today.