Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!

[vollkan]

I never support listmaking. I think it gives too much information to scum. It lets them know who the most townie people are, giving them targets to kill (especially since the scum in this game are trying to target townies rather than the other scum team). Also, it lets scum know how they're doing. If scum know their partner is on the verge of going down, then they'll know it's time to gas up the bus.

Normally I'd disagree with you. Here I must do so even more. Yes, the lists will potentially give scum a heads up as to the most town. However, scum base their NKs on much more than that, especially in a game where they know there is another scum group.
1) Scumhunting by scum - If we have 2 groups of 3 (Which seems most likely because 2 mafia and 1 SK is probably a serious disadvantage for town) or even 2 of 3 and a SK, scum have a massive incentive to wipe out other scum. Not only do they need to outnumber rival factions, but rival factions are a lynching threat (since they don't care if they lynch anyone outside their group)
2) Power role hunting - Scum do it. Nothing more needs saying.
3) Player hunting - Scum often will kill the strongest anti-them player, even if that player is not squeaky-clean suspicion-wise.

[PJ.]

If this is what we're gonna do I don't mind. I'll go first if anyone is worried about who needs to start.

[xyzzy]

vollkan, what are you trying to accomplish with this? I'm not entirely sure how it has any practical value - if we were catching SKs, it'd be a good idea, but lists of who are commiting what scumtells doesn't tell us who is who's buddy.

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

****PROPOSAL****
All players submit a scumdar giving at least 2 sentences per person. I will post mine first if the majority so wills it. Otherwise, I suggest random sequencing.

I feel this is a good idea. Lists would help the town more than scum. I’ll start the ball rolling with my own:

Panzerjager - I have made my case against him a number of times in the past two days. I am pretty sure his is scum. Apart from what I mentioned in previous posts, he has seemed very anxious to lynch quickly. Several times he has mentioned suspicions of Bookitty, but I can’t find where he elaborated or gave reasons for his suspicion of her.

Xyzzy - I find Xyzzy interesting in that he was after Panzerjager for reasons similar to mine.

Cause the norm is 2 groups of 3..every game i've been in with 2 greoups has been 2 groups of 3.

Assuming that this game is remotely similar to anything else is really quite scummy - we have no reason to assume that anything about this game is "traditional". Knowledge about the setup is a really bad thing to guess at, and any good player should know that - but remember, the scum have MUCH more information about the setup, so for scum to suggest something like this usually seems quite rational.

FoS: Panzer

Yet Xyzzy has been careful not to vote for Panzerjager when he was in any real danger of being lynched, instead he has apparently dropped his suspicions and he has switched his attack to me for lurker hunting and being unhelpful.

Rishi - He has played pretty quietly the whole game. The only thing that seems to have stirred him up was Skruffs accusation and vote based on him pointing out the difference in color of caught scum. Skruffs argument was weak, but he was killed that night. Did Rishi get nervous and NK Skruffs or Rishi is being set up?

Liamcool - Lurker of ridiculous proportions. I encourage you to do an isolated read of him. He has contributed NOTHING. His only vote was back in day one. I’m glad he was replaced.

Phate - His posts are all about game play, there is no scumhunting in them. The only exception is the following where he parrots Bookitty:

I'm liking a Snaps lynch. He jumps onto the egruntz-wagon after egruntz claims, and he's spending most of his time poking lurkers and more-or-less ignoring the conversations going on around him.

Bookitty - Not easy to sum up in just a few sentences. I get a pretty strong town vibes off of Bookitty. She has been very active, contributed to the conversations, etc. She has taken close looks at a number of players, and doesn’t seem to be trying to lead the town or start bandwagons. The only niggle of suspicion I have for her is a result of Panzerjager not elaborating on his suspicion of her. Is he distancing? Looking to start a bandwagon?

Vollkan - I enjoy his analytic thinking, however he seems to be reluctant to state who he suspects. On the other hand, he has not shied away from answering questions that are put to him. I find nothing scummy about him, and that makes me a little nervous.

Antithesis - He claims to be the cop. I believe him. If he was lying and scum, I’m pretty sure the real cop would have counter-claimed by now. If he was lying and innocent then it’s to the real cop’s interest to not counter-claim.

[vollkan]

vollkan, what are you trying to accomplish with this? I'm not entirely sure how it has any practical value - if we were catching SKs, it'd be a good idea, but lists of who are commiting what scumtells doesn't tell us who is who's buddy.

1) Discussion
2) Adduces clear suspicions
3) Forces people to take some initiative
4) Potential for distancing tells

[Toaster Strudel]

Partial notes:


egruntz: going after Bookitty at first, then Xylthim, who was, surprised, bus'ed scum.
His suspects: 1. Disciple Slayer, 2. Mills and 3. Xylthixlm - vote DiscipleLayer out of the blue.

DS
Mills
Xyl

I would have bet the farm that one of the 3 is scum, but Syl is already dead and scum, so not extra info there.

==================

Xylthixlm: votes OGML, mentions DiscipleSlayer and Mills. Dark Ermac, Sange mentioned. votes DiscipleSalyer
"I will be happy voting either egruntz or Disciple Slayer" -
mentions Fonz, Panzer, Snaps, Phate and Bookitty a bit.
Then back to OGML. FOS: CKD

His scumlist:
Disciple Slayer
curiouskarmadog, for voting Mills for a scummy reason then not saying what it is
Dark Ermac, for suggesting random voting then arguing against voting the scummiest people
egruntz, for advocating nolynch and general strange play. He's really after DS big time.
Then votes Eteocles??? FOS Panzer, now after Panzer.

OGML (town)
CKD (town)
DS/Eteocles (town)
Sange (town)
Fonz (town)
egruntz(scum)
Panzer (???)
Snaps (???)
Mills/Antithesis (???)
Phate (???)
Bookitty (???)

What I get from this is that Xyl is not the bus'ing kind of town. However, egruntz, a noob scum, had DS, Mills/Antithesis and Xyl on his scumlist. I'm not sure if that's good for Mills/Antithesis.

But I bet he at least mentioned his buddy at some point.

Panzer (???) voted Snaps, Fonz, Mills(a lot), hasdagas, defends Mills and is against the DS wagon. His scumlist:
Mills/Antithesis, FOS Dark Ermac, votes CKD....
Egruntz (scum)
hasdagas
The Fonz
Disciple Slayer(town)
Patch15 (a lurker?)

Snaps (???)
Mills/Antithesis (???)
Phate (???)
Bookitty (???)

---------------
SO far Panzer is lookign very scummy. But I need to look at Mills/Antithesis, Phate and Bookitty before I decide anything. I'm too tired now.

[xyzzy]

vollkan, what are you trying to accomplish with this? I'm not entirely sure how it has any practical value - if we were catching SKs, it'd be a good idea, but lists of who are commiting what scumtells doesn't tell us who is who's buddy.

1) Discussion
2) Adduces clear suspicions
3) Forces people to take some initiative
4) Potential for distancing tells

Why do you believe those will have a greater benefit to the town than the scum?

[vollkan]

1) Discussion - Well, this one is a no-brainer. If you don't talk, you don't lynch scum.
2) This is a mixed-bag, so to speak: It boosts discussion since people have to give reasons for suspicions and arguments stemming from those reasons are a good means of assessing people. Moreover, it prevents specific instances of being non-committal (eg. where people only give their opinions on the scummiest and not on those who are somewhat foggier). The draw-back is the potential for informing scum but that ordinarily is NOT serious (I have given my reasons already) and particularly so in a setup where scum have a huge imperative to lynch other scumgroups.
3) People who are forced to speak up are less murky when it comes to reading them. This also helps catch people who are leeching.
4) Only scum can distance. True, scum can try and play around with this and manipulate things, but at the end of the day, this is another source of information.

[PJ.]

TS - No clue her predecessor was a lurker. 50/50 scum with phate being the other choice. One of the lurkers has got to be scum.

Phate - One of the lurkers is probably scum

Bookitty - I think she is scummy mostly based on gut and that slip up I mentioned. She just seemed to know too much. I think She is buddies with Xyl(although I stated otherwise and is IMO the only person the third on my lynch list.) She seems waaaay too sure about herself.

Vollkan - Wow, this guy is good. I've never been unable to even get a gut read on somebody. Is seems sincere in wanting to get info for the town to a point to where it is almost too sincere.

Rishi - I'm feeling really good about Rishi. I think he his town based on the way he has been thinking, never too sure but still getting at good leads.

Snaps - Already talked about him, He is probably scum.

Myself - Clean

Xyzzy - Solidly town. Lurker but when he contributes he actually contributes and seems to be pretty solid.

Antithesis - Cop

[Phate]

Ok, I'm here, I've reread the thread, and I really don't like Snaps' play. I didn't like the lurker-hunting yesterday, and I don't like the way he hasn't really accused anyone who's not a lurker or already suspicious of him today - basically, he's refraining from accusing anyone who will put any more pressure on him.

Yet Xyzzy has been careful not to vote for Panzerjager when he was in any real danger of being lynched, instead he has apparently dropped his suspicions and he has switched his attack to me for lurker hunting and being unhelpful.

This jumped out at me. Look at the weaselly words he uses to interpret zz's actions. Rather than "Xyzzy didn't find Panzerjager scummy enough to lynch; he finds me a better lynch for lurker hunting and being unhelpful.", he throws in phrases like "has been careful not to vote for Panzerjager when he was in any real danger of being lynched" and "apparently dropped his suspicions and he has switched his attack to me". Those are the words of someone who's absolutely sure that someone else is scum, yet he doesn't go on to vote him, FoS him, or even mention his opinions on zz's scumminess. It feels to me like someone just trying to stir up suspicion without making any commitment.

Also, lists that include the entire town are detrimental to town because they are giving a roadmap of who to kill. I would be glad, however, to give a list of top 3 possible scum.

[Bookitty]

Panzer, you've jumped on me two times for no reason, and had to back down. Do you think it's possible you're suffering from confirmation bias due to your mistaken assumptions in the past?

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt, since I couldn't see a reason scum would jump on me so consistently, but at this point I can't do that anymore.

I really don't like nor agree with your scumlist, especially since there is a major inconsistency in it.

unvote; vote Panzerjager

[xyzzy]

Also, lists that include the entire town are detrimental to town because they are giving a roadmap of who to kill. I would be glad, however, to give a list of top 3 possible scum.

This.

And Panzer certainly isn't off of my radar - I'm just much more sure about Snaps. And vollkan, while I'm not sure it's scummy, your adamance that scum have absolutely no way to use our analysis seesm slightly scummy, as if you're hoping for a nightkill roadmap. Knowledge of who feels others are town=helpful for scum, not so much for town.

[vollkan]

This jumped out at me. Look at the weaselly words he uses to interpret zz's actions. Rather than "Xyzzy didn't find Panzerjager scummy enough to lynch; he finds me a better lynch for lurker hunting and being unhelpful.", he throws in phrases like "has been careful not to vote for Panzerjager when he was in any real danger of being lynched" and "apparently dropped his suspicions and he has switched his attack to me". Those are the words of someone who's absolutely sure that someone else is scum, yet he doesn't go on to vote him, FoS him, or even mention his opinions on zz's scumminess. It feels to me like someone just trying to stir up suspicion without making any commitment.

Smells like distancing, in other words. Declarations of suspicion without any possibility of a case arising.

I really don't like nor agree with your scumlist, especially since there is a major inconsistency in it.

That inconsistency being?

And vollkan, while I'm not sure it's scummy, your adamance that scum have absolutely no way to use our analysis seesm slightly scummy, as if you're hoping for a nightkill roadmap. Knowledge of who feels others are town=helpful for scum, not so much for town.

Meta me if you want. You will find that I adore such lists and use them frequently. If you disagree with them, that's all well and good and I am sure we can debate ad nauseum. In themselves, however, they don't mean a thing regarding my alignment (nulltell, in other words).

[Bookitty]

@Vollkan: The varying treatment of lurkers, with these two phrases used:

"One of the lurkers has got to be scum." (re: TS)

"One of the lurkers is probably scum" (re: Phate)

"Solidly town. Lurker but when he contributes he actually contributes and seems to be pretty solid." (re: xyzzy)

Interesting views on lurkers, given his attacks on Snaps, whose main offences have been in the line of lurker-hunting.

[vollkan]

That's hilarious.

He not only contradicts his own stance on lurkers ("got to", "probably", "lurker but...") but he contradicts the crux of the argument against Snaps.

I eagerly await an explanation. *baited breath*

[xyzzy]

Meta me if you want. You will find that I adore such lists and use them frequently. If you disagree with them, that's all well and good and I am sure we can debate ad nauseum. In themselves, however, they don't mean a thing regarding my alignment (nulltell, in other words).

So essentially, you're saying that because you always use lists, it's a null tell. So you're essentially a slightly more spohisticated VI?

[vollkan]

Meta me if you want. You will find that I adore such lists and use them frequently. If you disagree with them, that's all well and good and I am sure we can debate ad nauseum. In themselves, however, they don't mean a thing regarding my alignment (nulltell, in other words).

So essentially, you're saying that because you always use lists, it's a null tell. So you're essentially a slightly more spohisticated VI?

What I am saying is that any insinuation that my fondness for lists is scummy is plainly untrue in light of my record.

If by "slightly more sophisticated VI" (only slightly? ) you mean that "I consistently behave in a manner which you don't agree with" then I accept that epithet.

You only need to look at the dirt which has surfaced on Panzer to see the benefit that forcing people to give their reasoning can do.

[xyzzy]

You only need to look at the dirt which has surfaced on Panzer to see the benefit that forcing people to give their reasoning can do.

I agree completely, but I don't think listmaking is the most beneficial way to do this, since knowing who is most protown is

much

more useful for scum, and knowledge of who is acting scummy has only limited use to the scum.

[Toaster Strudel]

================
SCUMPUTER INPUT
================

January 6

Disciple Slayer - 6 (Mills, Snaps the pirate, Xylthixlm, Bookitty, Hasdgfas, egruntz)
We know that both Xyl and egruntz were scum. Two scum on one townie wagon is a lot. Therefore, I would say that Mills/Antithesis, Snaps the pirate, Bookitty, and Hasdgfas are almost certainly town.

Panzer (???) - scum?
Phate (???)- scum?
Snaps (???) - almost certainly town
Mills/Antithesis (???) - almost certainly town
Bookitty (???) - almost certainly town

On that same wagon, let's see who was voting for these players that I suppose are town.
Mills/Antithesis (town) - 2 (curiouskarmadog(town), panzerjager(???))
OhGodMyLife (town) - 2 (the fonz (town), Phate (???))
Bookitty - 1 (Disciple Slayer/Eteocles(town))

Looking at that wagon, I would have to say that Panzer and Phate are scum.

January 23

Eteocles (town)- 8 (Snaps the pirate, Xylthixlm (scum), egruntz(scum), Hasdgfas, Bookitty, Antithesis, Vollkan, Liamcool/TS (town))
OhGodMyLife (town)- 2 (the fonz(town), curiouskarmadog (town))
curiouskarmadog (town) - 2 (panzerjager, OhGodMyLife(town))
Antithesis - 1 (Phate)
Bookitty - 1 (eteocles(town))
egruntz - 1 (Xyzzy)

Again, two scum on Eteocles/DS. Again I doubt there is a third scum there. Again, possible townies are:
Snaps the pirate, Hasdgfas, Bookitty, Mills/Antithesis, Vollkan, Liamcool/TS.
We have Panzer voting for CKD (a townie), and Phate voting Antithesis a likely townie. Xyxxy voting egruntz might be safe distancing.

Phate (???) - scum?
Panzer (???) - scum?
Xyzzy (???) - scum?
Vollkan - almost certainly town
Liamcool/TS - almost certainly town
Snaps (???) - almost certainly town, almost certainly town
Mills/Antithesis (???) - almost certainly town, almost certainly town
Bookitty (???) - almost certainly town, almost certainly town

March 9

OhGodMyLife (town)- 5 (Vollkan, Bookitty, Antithesis, panzerjager, hasdgfas)
panzerjager - 2 (Snaps the pirate, Xyzzy)
Snaps the pirate - 1 (Phate)
Xyzzy - 1 (Skruffs)
Rishi - 1 (OhGodMyLife)

OK, this one is harder to analyze, I'll have to be a bit more speculative and treat some players as town. I'm putting an asterisk next to the players I think may be town based on the previous wagons.

OhGodMyLife (town)- 5 (Vollkan*, Bookitty**, Antithesis**, panzerjager, hasdgfas**)
panzerjager - 2 (Snaps the pirate**, Xyzzy)
Snaps the pirate - 1 (Phate)
Xyzzy - 1 (Skruffs(town))
Rishi - 1 (OhGodMyLife (town))

A townie lynch with only 5 votes, I expect one scum, and that scum would be Panzer, since all others on the wagon, I've pretty much eliminated. It fits.
Off-wagon, we have xyzzy voting for potential scumbag Panzer. The day before we did something similar, the only vote on egruntz-scum. Phate is off-wagon voting for a townie. I have no read on Rishi-sensfan, this is a heavy lurking player slot that no one has talked about much.

Oops I just noticed that hasdagas is dead and was indeed town. Oh well that confirms my analysis a little, it doesn't discredit it.

=====================
SCUMPUTER OUTPUT
=====================

First scumdidate: Panzer
Second scumdidate: Phate
Thir scumdidate: Xyzzy

[Toaster Strudel]

Checking the most recent votecount, Panzer and Zyzzy are pushing for a Snaps lynch. By my calculations Snaps is town.

vote: Panzerjager

[Toaster Strudel]

This jumped out at me. Look at the weaselly words he uses to interpret zz's actions. Rather than "Xyzzy didn't find Panzerjager scummy enough to lynch; he finds me a better lynch for lurker hunting and being unhelpful.", he throws in phrases like "has been careful not to vote for Panzerjager when he was in any real danger of being lynched" and "apparently dropped his suspicions and he has switched his attack to me". Those are the words of someone who's absolutely sure that someone else is scum, yet he doesn't go on to vote him, FoS him, or even mention his opinions on zz's scumminess. It feels to me like someone just trying to stir up suspicion without making any commitment.

Considering that the Scumputer output has yourself, Panzer and Xyzzy as scumbags, I'd like you to explain the above further.

I realize you are attacking Snaps. But who are you defending? Are you defending Xyzzy, or Panzer - even if the defense is indirect, I'd like an answer.

[vollkan]

You only need to look at the dirt which has surfaced on Panzer to see the benefit that forcing people to give their reasoning can do.

I agree completely, but I don't think listmaking is the most beneficial way to do this, since knowing who is most protown is

much

more useful for scum, and knowledge of who is acting scummy has only limited use to the scum.

Interesting.

The information we have just received on Panzer could only have come about by asking him to give his opinions on multiple people. I'm not quite sure what alternative exists which is not effectively the same thing.

Then again, I am only a "slightly more sophisticated VI" so I have probably missed some other method of getting opinions on multiple people. Right?

[Bookitty]

I'm curious, xyzzy, do you think that, with two scumteams, scum will be actively trying to kill town more than members of the opposing scumteam? Why or why not?

Isn't it more likely that scumlists of the type Vollkan proposes would give better information to the scum about who the opposing scumteam is, and make it more likely that they would target the opposing scum? Do you think it's more advantageous in a game with two scumteams for them to each target town, or opposing scum?

[Snaps_the_Pirate]

Just my opinion:

Lists in general are more helpful to town. Scum have every advantage but numbers. They know the status and roles of their teammates, they know the number of scum, and they have nights in which they can coordinate their attacks. For the town to win, we need to work together. If everyone produced a list, then we have an exchange of information in the form of suspicions, vote and FoS analysis etc. Granted, some of that information will be tainted by scum, but anything that forces scum to participate is to the town’s advantage. When scum create lists, they have the burden of the extra information they are privy to. They have to make their suspicion lists in a way that doesn’t implicate their scum buddies or themselves, and they have to be careful that they have been consistent with their previous arguments. I can understand the arguments that others have given about how lists help scum, but I believe lists help town more. If we hold back our thoughts and refuse to work together how can the town win?

[Elias_the_thief]

The Second Day Four Votecount:

Snaps the pirate - 3

(Panzerjager, Rishi, Xyzzy)

Panzerjager - 3

(Snaps the pirate, Bookitty, Toaster Strudel)

Xyzzy - 0

Rishi - 0

Toaster Strudel - 0

Phate - 0

Kison - 0

Bookitty - 0

Vollkan - 0

Nobody - 3

(Phate, Kison, Vollkan)

With 9 alive it will take 5 to lynch. Deadline for today is Sunday, April 13th, at 10 PM EST. Considering moving it up if activity does not pick up.

Kison replaces Antithesis.