Large Normal 246: Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My plan originally was to investigate the millers. If I live to and through tonight I plan to do that. I won't go further on what my crumbs meant. They do have a purpose, but it's not beneficial to town to go into them right now.

This is such a waste, and I would be saying this even if I wasn't a claimed Miller.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh wait I understand. Black did the first one. Protected gamma and they both died.

I guess I misinterpreted this post?

Yeah, they mean this:

Oh wait I understand. Black did the first one. Black protected gamma and they both died.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm fine with Cele not explaining.

For now, same

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I got through #909. Through there, I have the game something like this:

Town
{Black, KawaiiKame}
Strong Lean Town
{Celebloki}
Lean Town
{TimmerRC, Dunnstral [Miller Claim], ‪Cat scratch fever, ‬Guillotina}
Slight Lean Town
{ssbm_Kyouko [Miller Claim], Broccoli Quest 2, Random Nurse, Naerys}
Uncertain
{Hu Tao}
Slight Lean Scum
{davesaz}
Lean Scum
{Elements, Keyleth}
Scum
{Gamma Emerald}

Spoiler: With Quotes

[Comments before end of D1]

217 - I can’t say I like the reasoning for the vote expressed here, but I don’t know that Scum openly admits to voting as a form of policy instead of just saying it was RVS. I know Celebloki is getting a lot of heat for this explanation from what I can tell, so I would just say that I don’t get SR the slot for this. I think if Scum had to explain the vote to draw the least amount of suspicion, they probably just say that it’s an RVS vote and that’s it. The extra explanation clearly isn’t angled at making themselves look good.
219 - Interestingly, I’m surprised to actually agree with this thought. It may not be entirely accurate. Still, I like the skepticism that underlies it.
285 - This may be the sort of question Scum asks to appear to be advancing the game. Or it could be genuine curiosity, not sure. If you’re asking me (and I know you’re not), there’s no definitive process that works. At the end of the day, Scum have to bullshit.
293 - I’m not a fan of this post. I would argue Kyouko didn’t seem “afraid”. They were simply trying to connect (yes, despite the vote). I don’t know if Kyouko’s Miller claim was “opportunistic” - I may have to revisit the context.
306 - I can’t say I understand this pivot. If you really believe Kyouko is trying to attack you early because they’re scared of your slot (I presume because you’re good at catching Scum), then why not keep up the pressure after they’ve collected some quick votes?
327 - I agree that Guillotina’s bursts of posts are probably +Towny. Nevertheless, I share Black’s “concern” about the switch to Celebloki there.
348 - Is this back and forth supposed to convince me that Random Nurse and Guillotina can’t be partnered?
384 - Certainly quite a bit of overlap with some of the reactions I have felt. Though the questions themselves are probably easy to fake from Scum, I’ll admit that the level of enthusiasm is probably difficult to sustain from Scum. Though that’s coming from the perspective of someone that doesn’t like playing Scum ever.
391 - I don’t think you can know this @Elements. If the pivot happened within 30 minutes, then a previous post shouldn’t have caused the switch. I would have found it more believable if Guillotina had simply said that they were

also

suspicious of Celebloki for the reasons explained.
402 - Black’s skepticism here in response to Elements claiming to not have a read of Guillotina is, in my mind, warranted.

[Reading After D1 has ended]
449 - This is far fetched. Not a particularly convincing argument from Guillotina.
468 - For reasons specified above, I don’t like this argument from Kyouko.
478 - Obviously Broccoli’s read of Gamma as Scum is negative points. To be totally fair, I don’t think I ever even had a chance to express a read there so I can understand why this opinion might be annoying.
482 - Since this doesn’t read like distancing to me, Celebloki is more often than not Town (assuming this keeps up).
484 - Since we know this is a Scum motivated wagon, these votes from Elements and Broccoli are not positives. Do I think the whole Scum Team jumped on a slot all at the same time? No.
518 - Now this is interesting. Gamma actively arguing against a vote for Guillotina in this way is either a pocket or a Partner. Will have to decide which one.
526 - I don’t know what to make of this interaction between Broccoli and Gamma. Is it too blatant for Partners?
529 - Meh. Ruling out Kyouko and Guillotina over 18 just doesn’t make any sense to me. Dunnstral and Elements could certainly be partnered. If anything, 28 is some evidence in favor of the idea that perhaps Dunn and

Gamma

are not partnered. And the way Gamma shaded Elements is clearly nothing that Scum aren’t capable of doing. This post isn’t particularly impressive.
The interaction between Gamma and Random Nurse I will admit didn’t strike me as Partners. So I would argue there’s some positives there.
536 - This probably just clears CSF for now.
546 - I do agree that Guillotina and Gamma are probably not partnered given 329. I do think that Black’s argument against Guillotina was valid, but I’m having a hard time simply ignoring the more direct interactions with Gamma.
549 - Probably Town indicative for Dunnstral (the attack on Gamma).
563 - Not great in a vacuum. Funny enough, Keyleth SR’ing one of the most widely TR’ed slots in the game is a positive for me.
565 - This certainly confirms the observation above. Also, this is a positive for Naerys - they’re reaching out to a slot that’s +Town in my book to defend another Town that’s being (wrongly) suspected.
567 - If this ended up with a vote, perhaps Broccoli and Gamma are not really partnered.
569 - I don’t know if Gamma as Scum reacts to a Partner’s suspicion this way, but it’s very convincing distancing.
581 - Then again, this feels like a bad vote. Having said that, Gamma trying to move Guillotina from Naerys to Celebloki (not directly, of course) in 582 has to be considered as a subtle defense.
592 - I’m thinking this post from davesaz is bad. I would argue it’s clearly shading a Towny, but it’s also not particularly strong. Just attacking the strength of the read.
595 - All this analysis, only to vote Town. That’s a shame. I remain in disagreement that Gamma flipping Scum spews Elements Town.
602 - This also doesn’t feel like distancing. Considering it’s a “spicy take” from Scum, I can’t imagine it’s accurate. 625 also means that the take is followed with an actual vote, which I would argue is a decent indication of it not being SvS. Also, I don’t think it’s particularly common to accuse a Partner of “bullying”.
603 - I had a good laugh at this. Timmer is again, probably just Town.

As a side note, this game feels very dense. It’s taking me a long time to parse through each page.

626 - Uh oh. Not good from Keyleth.
627 - Yeah, I can’t currently conclude that Broccoli and Gamma are trying to distance here. The use of the word “bullying” and Broccoli’s clear negative reaction to that are pretty Town indicative to me.
639 - Interesting line here from Guillotina.
640 - Now this I would actually vote. davesaz is doing the classic I see my Partner is struggling with their push, so I will argue they’re both Town in a way to protect their position.
648, 665 - We can certainly dispense with the notion that Elements and Gamma can’t be partnered.
658 - Since this is real pressure, Celebloki is probably never Scum here.
674 - It’s going to be hard to trust Kyouko in light of the set of posts culminating here.
691 - There’s something shady about this post. Arguing that your own behavior is +Town because you’re helping de-obfuscate is quite questionable.
692 - @Kyouko, I read Dunn’s post as defending Kawaii from Gamma. Now of course it doesn’t matter. Kawaii was Town, and I agree upon reading more closely that Dunn wasn’t doing that, but instead was reacting to Elements. I think there’s other reasons to believe that Dunnstral is Town in any case.
The point on Kawaii and Timmer was a bit more nuanced, I would argue. TImmerRC seemed confused like you said, and somewhat outraged, that Hu Tao had claimed VT. Kawaii then said “it’s definitely weird” which is another way of saying “it’s Scummy”, which I didn’t agree with (I don’t think Hu Tao is Scummy for claiming VT so early). At the time, I felt the way Kawaii approached the situation was Scummy. I was wrong, obviously.
696 - Though I have to read through the collection of posts here again, the case constructed by Kyouko of Celebloki is probably flawed, and should be scrutinized.
711 - This is Keyleth defending Scum and one of my biggest SRs so I can’t say I think this is great.
715 - I can’t view piling onto Celebloki here as a positive (from davesaz).
723 - I think Kyouko arguing this deep in the game that the reasoning behind an RVS vote is sufficient to justify a large wagon on a player is just a bad look. It may not be coming from Scum, admittedly. As in, why would Scum spend so much time making themselves look tunneled with the primary reason being an RVS vote? But at the time, it was the wagon with the most votes on. So that’s something to consider.
728 - I think voting Elements here is justified.
756 - If I’m being objective, I would think this is a positive from Guillotina. And also, I think Broccoli criticizing the focus on the RVS vote in 755 is a tad positive, but not to the same extent since they found a way to maintain their vote regardless. Now, Celebloki would have to be confirmed Town, but shifting away there I would argue is +Town.
766 - I would argue Dunnstral probably has the game somewhat upside down from reading this (up to that point), but I’m not thinking that’s Scummy.
783 - I would argue this is Scummy from Keyleth.
784 - This reads like a pocketing attempt to me. TR’ing the strategy put forth by Broccoli, I would argue, is being done because Broccoli TR’ed Gamma pretty strongly. My point being that I am not of the mindset that Gamma and Broccoli are partners even if Broccoli seems to have consistently defended Gamma throughout.
817 - Would like to highlight this post from davesaz. Not a good look.
822 - From my perspective, this pool for an execution is problematic since I TR all of these slots. Gotta say - definitively calling Broccoli anything this game is going to be tough (from what I’ve observed so far).
833 - This is the sort of subtle defense of a Partner I would expect to see (davesaz and Gamma, in this case).
848 - I’ll just quickly give my thoughts on Town blocks but I don’t expect to get much of a reaction to it. Town blocks are a necessary evil. Setting up a POE is key to putting Scum in a corner. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that Town blocks should be trusted forever if set up D1 (and Broccoli clearly would have lost the game that way if it wasn’t for Black’s excellent use of their role), but I don’t like these posts arguing against their use. In my experience, they can be extremely effective tools. Having said that, I understand Celebloki’s skepticism. I just think it’s misplaced.
860, 861, 863 - Hm. I started reading this sequence as potentially partners, but the fact that Gamma was completely willing to apply pressure here with a vote deflates that argument to a large extent.
867 - The AtE from Naerys is real.
873 - This is too harsh for partners (though there’s always a chance it’s deception). I’m thinking davesaz and Hu Tao are not partnered as Scum.
909 - I have a couple of broad thoughts. Firstly, Kyouko reevaluating like this is Towny. There’s a couple of things that I have picked up from Naerys that make me think the slot is maybe Town (for example, the AtE in #867). I also think that Kyouko is trying to figure out Naerys’ alignment with nuance, and it doesn’t read like fake reasoning to me. The analysis whether Naerys was being waffly with the points about the millers seems solid. I don’t think the underlying points are super strong per se, but I think it’s a bit too nuanced for Scum.

Do you have Black, KK, and Gamma as Town and Scum because they're all 3 flipped already or are you saying those are your reads on them as of 909?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah and the second I explain what I was doing I'll get flamed for revealing a potential town PR. It's better that I have the heat right now.

The only thing further I'll say is that I am not a protective, but I believe there is one. This is why I didn't believe Hu Tao so strongly yesterday and why I decided to look into it over night. I was asking about the possibility of two because I became concerned that I was misguided in thinking that there couldn't be two.

ok I changed my mind, if you're Informed you need to share toDay what you're informed of

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah I might as well claim since it's so implied ay this point. I did soft a PR yesterday when I said:

If it saves us time since we are approaching Deadline, I can go ahead and claim now before we waste time on a wagon on me.

At the time it seemed like I was about to get wagoned and we were getting close to deadline. I didn't want to waste time wagoning me into a claim, then have it dismantle and turn into a panic situation before deadline.

I'm a Town Role Cop. My original plans were to investigate Dunn or Kyouko and confirm their miller status. After Hu Tao's claim, I debated real hard over night on whether I should still check one of the millers or her. I ended up going with Hu Tao and got "Vanilla" back. Someone else dropped crumbs that apparently only I saw that makes me think there are other protectives.

... In the future you should probably check the person that crumbed in this scenario. Scum will sometimes leave fake crumbs for a future fakeclaim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Since i have seen town!Tao lie about being doctor, i suppose she could be town.
I dont see what scum!Broccoli would gain from defending town!Tao - more likely he would support the easy lim. Defending Hu Tao makes sense only in case of both town or both scum. Both being scum is something to think about.

Havent finished my thoughts here, lol. Sent it by mistake.
Anyway, while faking doctor is something Hu Tao did as town, i think we need to look at her behavior since beginning. First she claims vanilla, then when she gets pushed she claims doctor. At the very best she feels untrustworthy, at the worst these are scummy moves. She could be doing it bcz she knows there are players who have seen her faking doctor as town, so she counts on that those will TR her.
Conclusion: flipping Hu gives us decent info. It solves potential Hu+Broccoli+Gamma buddies.
VOTE: Hu Tao

Even though she wants me dead, I still don't think Kyouko's the play today.

This might seem completely out of left field, but I am just pondering scenario's.

In a game this size, and considering Hu Tao's claim of Complex Indecisive Doctor, is a second town protective role likely balance-wise or would that be too town sided?

I think i was hasty in believing Celebloki.
UNVOTE: Hu tao

I forgot about the Miller claims. So town might have a role cop. Why cele would waste it on me, not sure.

maybe bcz u went from vanilla claim to doc claim. That does not make you the most trustworthy person around here.

I do agree it looks weird on paper but Gamma was trying to send Hu Tao over! Do you think Gamma was just trying to damn a partner over someone like Kyouko or myself? I guess the main question is how many of the main wagons do we believe were on a wolf between Hu Tao, Kyouko, and myself. We already know the other two were one town and one wolf. Oh this is fun!

If Gamma thought that Hu wont get elim, it could be possible. But yeah, thats very unlikely. Evidence points to Hu being town.Still being wary of her, though.

Lastly I think Gob lied about their reason for replacing out being that they were in too many games. Point being they joined a new game right after replacing out of this one and have posted nearly a hundred times on the site since then.

VOTE: Dunnstral
Gobs reason is his own and this post is really bad.

Naerys, understand that if Hu Tao flips Scum I will also be suspecting you because it could be seen as you trying to shift my focus away from HT and onto Celebloki.

If you're Town, understand this possibility. If you're Scum understand that I will eventually catch you.

I am not trying to shift anything. I just dont know whom to trust.

Hu Tao vs Celebloki could contain a scum.
Hu Tao looks much worse, that slot is untrustworthy. Starting with her is less risky than limming potential useful town PR but also her flip gets plenty of useful info.
I wanted to go this way but allowed Broccoli and Hu to make me hesitate.
Out of the 3 i feel like Hu has the best chance of rolling scum.

VOTE: Hu Tao

You made this post and I wonder how you could reply to this without realizing Hu Tao was a Doctor claim:

Celebloki claimed role cop and claimed that Hu is Vanilla. Pay attention, please.
This could be scum disconnected from game. I got my eyes on you.

I just see disconnect and no real train of thought here. Just bouncing from one to the next. First I was scum. Then town. Then for some reasons Cele and me contain one scum.

Naerys was pretty hard-set on me being scum yesterDay and I think after Gamma flipped scum, Naerys realized my read on Gamma was not a performance and so she's now in a reevaluation state, so I don't think this is scum-indicative. I see what you see though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see Hu Tao was E-2 as of last night, could we not rush this Day please?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I am claiming role cop, not any other kind of cop. It returns whatever the slots role is, but I don't get alignment. If the slot is VT, Goon, whatever,

I'm supposed to get something to indicate it's a generic role so I don't get alignment. For Hu Tao I got Vanilla.

This could mean VT, Goon, SK, whatever the basic role for a faction is.

I was excited when the game started and we had 2 Miller claims, because if I check one and get Miller, that's pretty set what it means.

Last thing I'll mention for now because I'm at work and it's getting a bit busy, but if I seem to be fixated on Celeb's claims the bolded part in the quote is part of it. That just reads like someone read the wiki and tried explaining a fake claim from that, and not someone checking their role PM.

From the wiki: "Vanilla players have role names that vary by faction; a Role Cop scanning these will get "Vanilla" as the response, again anonymising the win condition. Thus, a Mafia Goon or a Serial Killer should give the same result as a Vanilla Townie (unless they have extra abilities). "

they even mention all three examples from the wiki, VT, Goon, SK.

So for the moment, I do not trust Celeb at all. Following my gut.

This could also just all be paraphrased from his role PM if he is really a rolecop

[Andresvmb]

Just for everyone’s benefit, I checked the flips, and then in my comments used that information to clarify my positions. I used the labels {Scum} and {Town} simply to track information that’s confirmed. Anything that has a “Lean” ahead of it is my perception of a slot.

[Andresvmb]

I saw some ridiculous snark about how my view that Black was Town or Gamma was Scum was “bold” by Hu Tao. What a joke.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Uh, I guess I should ask is Vanilla townie different from townie?

No it's not, they're different words for the same thing. Vanilla just means unmodified - no roles whatseover. Both a Rolecop and a Vanilla Cop would get a result of "Vanilla" investigating a goon, townie, serial killer, werewolf, cultist, etc.

So I'm not sure how Dunnstral got confused between Rolecop and Vanilla Cop given Celebloki's claim, as both return Vanilla when targeting a Vanilla

[Andresvmb]

In any event, I haven’t read why Hu Tao is getting pushed today for some claim, but that’s a really easy way to lose the game (focusing on claims versus play).

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just for everyone’s benefit, I checked the flips, and then in my comments used that information to clarify my positions. I used the labels {Scum} and {Town} simply to track information that’s confirmed. Anything that has a “Lean” ahead of it is my perception of a slot.

This is what I thought, but wanted to know if you were trying to pass it off as reads

[Elements]

Spoiler: Andresvmb's reads

I got through #909. Through there, I have the game something like this:

Town
{Black, KawaiiKame}
Strong Lean Town
{Celebloki}
Lean Town
{TimmerRC, Dunnstral [Miller Claim], ‪Cat scratch fever, ‬Guillotina}
Slight Lean Town
{ssbm_Kyouko [Miller Claim], Broccoli Quest 2, Random Nurse, Naerys}
Uncertain
{Hu Tao}
Slight Lean Scum
{davesaz}
Lean Scum
{Elements, Keyleth}
Scum
{Gamma Emerald}

These all feel

very

safe

[Andresvmb]

So most of the comments embedded in that post I pushed out incorporated the benefit of the flips we do have. And I clearly labeled from where on I was reading with that benefit. I have to finalize that process but it just takes me a while. In any event, Elements is probably our best bet, as far as I have read, but I do want to finish that process. I’ll try this week but I’m busy with a lot of activities so it may drag.

[Andresvmb]

Just for everyone’s benefit, I checked the flips, and then in my comments used that information to clarify my positions. I used the labels {Scum} and {Town} simply to track information that’s confirmed. Anything that has a “Lean” ahead of it is my perception of a slot.

This is what I thought, but wanted to know if you were trying to pass it off as reads

I don’t think I would try and do such a thing as either Town or Scum - only if I was trying to destroy my own reputation. Also, I did call Black Town from very early on so I get to claim some benefit from that but I think that view was broadly shared.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In any event, I haven’t read why Hu Tao is getting pushed today for some claim, but that’s a really easy way to lose the game (focusing on claims versus play).

Hu Tao claimed VT in like post 14 or something. Then way way later on, close to deadline, when they were getting close to eliminated, they claimed Complex Indecisive Doctor.

Gamma

tried to imply the Doctor claim could come from scum by claiming Gunsmith, a role that would be able to clear Millers but would get a false positive on a Scum Doctor.

I think it's pretty clear from what Gamma did that Hu Tao is town. This did not become clear until morning when Gamma flipped, so it's not an egregious scumclaim for Celebloki to have checked Hu Tao, but I really wish he had used his power some other way.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In any event, I haven’t read why Hu Tao is getting pushed today for some claim, but that’s a really easy way to lose the game (focusing on claims versus play).

Hu Tao claimed VT in like post 14 or something. Then way way later on, close to deadline, when they were getting close to eliminated, they claimed Complex Indecisive Doctor.

Gamma

tried to imply the Doctor claim could come from scum by claiming Gunsmith, a role that would be able to clear Millers but would get a false positive on a Scum Doctor.

I think it's pretty clear from what Gamma did that Hu Tao is town. This did not become clear until morning when Gamma flipped, so it's not an egregious scumclaim for Celebloki to have checked Hu Tao, but I really wish he had used his power some other way.

(And Celebloki Rolecopped Hu Tao, he says they are Vanilla, which is where Hu Tao's "lying" comes into play)

[Andresvmb]

In any event, I haven’t read why Hu Tao is getting pushed today for some claim, but that’s a really easy way to lose the game (focusing on claims versus play).

Hu Tao claimed VT in like post 14 or something. Then way way later on, close to deadline, when they were getting close to eliminated, they claimed Complex Indecisive Doctor.

Gamma

tried to imply the Doctor claim could come from scum by claiming Gunsmith, a role that would be able to clear Millers but would get a false positive on a Scum Doctor.

I think it's pretty clear from what Gamma did that Hu Tao is town. This did not become clear until morning when Gamma flipped, so it's not an egregious scumclaim for Celebloki to have checked Hu Tao, but I really wish he had used his power some other way.

Celebloki is so likely Town that this path is not worth pursuing. To the extent you want to dig into the Hu Tao wagon, that may be worth doing.

[Andresvmb]

But I agree with your preliminary assessment given the facts you’ve laid out.

[Andresvmb]

As in - these are not slots I would be pushing in this context.

[Andresvmb]

1989 is such a laughable reaction to being asked to actually comment on the game that I do think Elements knows they’re going to get executed today.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Celebloki is probably town. Hu Tao is almost certainly town. The only reason Gamma would, in her doomed moment, try to counterwagon onto a buddy (scum!HT), would be if Gamma herself had a scum PR and Hu Tao was a goon, or if Hu Tao was the strong PR and Gamma thought the wagon would not go through.

We know neither of these are the case because Gamma is a flipped Goon and we have Celebloki saying Hu Tao is vanilla, so unless you think Gamma, Hu Tao, and Celebloki are all scum together, you should not be voting Hu Tao.

If anyone does think that I'd like to know why they think HT and Celebloki are scum individually.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In any event, I haven’t read why Hu Tao is getting pushed today for some claim, but that’s a really easy way to lose the game (focusing on claims versus play).

Hu Tao claimed VT in like post 14 or something. Then way way later on, close to deadline, when they were getting close to eliminated, they claimed Complex Indecisive Doctor.

Gamma

tried to imply the Doctor claim could come from scum by claiming Gunsmith, a role that would be able to clear Millers but would get a false positive on a Scum Doctor.

I think it's pretty clear from what Gamma did that Hu Tao is town. This did not become clear until morning when Gamma flipped, so it's not an egregious scumclaim for Celebloki to have checked Hu Tao, but I really wish he had used his power some other way.

Celebloki is so likely Town that this path is not worth pursuing. To the extent you want to dig into the Hu Tao wagon, that may be worth doing.

I'm not saying we should be digging into Celebloki, I agree he's likely town. I think there are probably scum on Hu Tao's wagon already, maybe even a couple of them, hoping to capitalize on Celebloki's result and rush us into eliminating spewed town before we have our heads on straight.