Newbie 838 (Game Over!)

[PorkchopExpress]

@Pads: Don't you think that MME (and others) hassling Nik for a LoS is the reason for his analysis posts and him not hammering?

[startransmission]

Startrans, what do you think of tubby?

To be honest I have had a mild town read of Tubby for most of the game. A few things do bother me though. While he posts with some frequency, his posts rarely offer much insight. They mostly say things like "I agree with this point" or "waiting for so and so to answer this". There's been some fencesitting as well. When I challenged his unvote of Blue I accepted his response, but after reading your analysis I do see your points on some of the things he's said. Overall, I agree with Porkchop, I'm underwhelmed by his contributions. I've played one other game with him, and I'll have to go back and see if this is something that is consistent or not.

The recent votes have me unsettled. Honestly, at this point there is not one of you that I get any kind of town read from.

@Tubby, why do feel that Nikanor is scum (specifically) and that I am town? You just throw that out there and place a vote- a good case would be nice.

[tubby216]

Startrans, what do you think of tubby?

To be honest I have had a mild town read of Tubby for most of the game. A few things do bother me though. While he posts with some frequency, his posts rarely offer much insight. They mostly say things like "I agree with this point" or "waiting for so and so to answer this". There's been some fencesitting as well. When I challenged his unvote of Blue I accepted his response, but after reading your analysis I do see your points on some of the things he's said. Overall, I agree with Porkchop, I'm underwhelmed by his contributions. I've played one other game with him, and I'll have to go back and see if this is something that is consistent or not.

The recent votes have me unsettled. Honestly, at this point there is not one of you that I get any kind of town read from.

@Tubby, why do feel that Nikanor is scum (specifically) and that I am town? You just throw that out there and place a vote- a good case would be nice.[/quote

don't make cases i fail at making cases,

just the way i read it, nik scum u town

[Pads]

I'm not quick to hammer by any means. I guess you could say I'm too cautious. You can take a look at my meta if you'd like. I have never hammered as town. Based on my suspicions of tubby late yesterday, I probably never would have hammered, and would have pushed a tubby lynch instead.

But there was none of that. Neither a hammering nor a pushing of another case. The post where you finish off your review of Porkchop strikes me as unnatural because it neither addresses the original issue (your postponed vote on PurplePrincess) nor does it take steps to go down a different path (Tubby). It's a stagnant and destination-less post.

In the worst light, it looks as if, during the end of Day 2, you had 'forgotten' the entire point was to try and lynch a scum, and instead were plainsight lurking, using MME's calls for content as a cover.

With a L-1 wagon looming for a week, you neither denounced it, nor addressed your earlier intention to join it, nor made an effort to distance it. I took no major issue with your analysis on the players, but when it came to actual action, there was nothing. That kind of ambiguousness is where scum can hide, so while playstyle might account for it, so might a scum PM.

I'm trying to see it from your point of view. And I'm trying to understand how a townie, with one week to go before deadline, and with a wagon sitting at L-1, didn't vote, didn't hammer, and didn't try to convince anyone who was voting to vote for someone else. So, let me try something a little different.

Let me know if you feel any of the following are incorrect:

You did not believe hammering PP was a good idea.

You did not believe that the PP wagon should be denounced.

You did not believe that Tubby was scummy enough for you to vote him.

You did not believe that a vote on Tubby was the prudent thing to do.

Rather than waiting for players, why don't you just out with who you think is most likely to be scum at the moment and we can discuss from there? Seems to cut to the chase.

Because I don't like cutting to the chase and revealing my hand, as it were, first thing in the 'morning' before half the players have posted even the most minor of opinions. Revealing everything I"m thinking before anyone else says anything gives scum a free playbook that allows them to pick and choose what they want to barn/attack before they even say two words.

I started out with enough material for a first post, and I'll spill all the beans before we're done, but you don't get everything right up front.

Your analysis of Nik isn't too bad, but a more decisive conclusion might be nice.

I agree, but I'm still working on that. Understanding, or concluding that I don't understand, his behavior at the end of Day 2 will dictate that.

Also, considering that you replaced in and hammered immediately as I recall... well, you can't get too worked up about his vote never making it there. Sometimes, it you just aren't quick enough.

I considered that, but PP sat at L-1 for a week.

@Pads: Don't you think that MME (and others) hassling Nik for a LoS is the reason for his analysis posts and him not hammering?

I think it's the reason for his analysis posts. But I'm not so sure that it's the reason that he didn't hammer.

While we're on the subject, is it entirely unreasonable that said hassling resulted in MME's death? Might not scumTubby have been more likely to off Nikanor, his late day assailant? I realize that this takes a turn towards WIFOM land, but sometimes the simplest reasons are the correct ones. For my part, the choice of night kill has not been lightly factored.

As for my thoughts on you, Porkchop, nothing really stands out as overly scummy (with one possible exception, see below) and your interactions with PurplePrincess are all reasonable and make you look town. However, given the bizareness of PurplePrincess' behavior yesterday, that wouldn't take a whole lot.

I'm probably going to give you a pass today as far as my vote is concerned due to one reason: DV7 had you listed as tied for the most scummiest person, and I seriously doubt that he would rate his partner as such. Not to be insulting, but his play didn't strike me as deep enough to do that.

But there is one thing I've been rolling around in my head, and that's the hammer of DV7. If I were his scum partner, I would have wanted him gone, ASAP. The boat was visibily leaking, and getting him out of the game before it got worse would have been paramount.

I don't believe the mystery of whether the accidental hammer was forged is terribly relevant, and besides it was previously and reasonably explored by Nikanor. But what is important is that I think DV7's partner was dying to get rid of him, and very likely bussed him. The last three votes to come down on DV7 were Tubby, Ray Frost, and Porkchop, in that order.

Ray Frost, obviously, was not DV7's partner, so looking at the other two, we see that Porkchop was tied for the most scummiest person on DV7's list, and Tubby was considered the most townie. I'll assume everyone has taken another look at that post since then, because I think it's a very important post.

The whole post makes Tubby look really bad, as does Post 251 (although, I realize that I can look at this post a little differently than you guys can, since I know my alignment).

So, I haven't decided what I'm going to do yet, but there are some compelling reasons to vote Tubby. DV7's belief that he was townie, a possible bussing of DV7, the general back-burner impression I get from his play, the misdirection attempts away from DV7, and his lack of content or willingness to make cases today all help give me the confidence to vote Tubby.

I'll leave with one last thought on a factor that will affect my voting choice today. I want to win. But I don't care

when

we win. Today is as good as tomorrow and vice versa. In other words, I'm keeping in mind who is going to go to Lynch or Lose (nightkill permitting) if I vote wrong. We need analytical, active townies to win in Lynch or Lose.

To apply that thought to practical reality: if we vote to lynch Nikanor today, and he's town, I'll feel that we've hurt our chances come Day 4. But if we lynch Tubby, who is unwilling to make cases, and he's town, I'll believe we haven't lost quite as much.

[tubby216]

thats fine pads i'd accept lynching me at this point.

if i am the distraction then i must go

[Nikanor]

But there was none of that. Neither a hammering nor a pushing of another case. The post where you finish off your review of Porkchop strikes me as unnatural because it neither addresses the original issue (your postponed vote on PurplePrincess) nor does it take steps to go down a different path (Tubby). It's a stagnant and destination-less post.

I still had to analyse MME's play, remember.

With a L-1 wagon looming for a week, you neither denounced it, nor addressed your earlier intention to join it, nor made an effort to distance it. I took no major issue with your analysis on the players, but when it came to actual action, there was nothing. That kind of ambiguousness is where scum can hide, so while playstyle might account for it, so might a scum PM.

I also didn't expect someone to come along and hammer it a week before deadline.

I didn't think it was prudent to vote anyone until I was finished my analysis of everyone's play. A vote is supposed to be an indication of who you find most suspicious. Well, I didn't know who I found most suspicious because I hadn't reviewed everyone's play yet. It's true that I probably would have voted and pushed for a tubby lynch yesterday had I been given the chance to analyse MME's behaviour.

[startransmission]

thats fine pads i'd accept lynching me at this point.

if i am the distraction then i must go

This is not cool.

I've had internet problems recently, will post soon.

[PorkchopExpress]

Look, I'm pretty sure that Tubby is caught scum here.

Vote: Tubby

[Pads]

So, atleast one townie genuinely thinks Tubby is scum, eh?

I want to re-read a couple things before I toss my hat in the ring. No hammer in the next 24 hours, please.

[Pads]

I still had to analyse MME's play, remember.

No. You didn't have to. It was completely irrelevant to the conversation at hand, as was the Porkchop analysis. It looks like stalling and plainsight lurking to avoid hammering the townie to me.

I didn't think it was prudent to vote anyone until I was finished my analysis of everyone's play. A vote is supposed to be an indication of who you find most suspicious.

This has to be scum talking. Townies are impulsive and self-righteous with their votes, and not so calculating. Especially considering the quick Day 3 vote on a person he wasn't voting for yesterday.


While the Tubby case has merit, I'm going to

vote: Nikanor

Charges include: Rolefishing (let's out the cop), attempting to placate his attackers (for the purposes of slinking away, like he's doing to me, and like he did to MME all of day 2), and the stalling of the Day 2 vote.

I can accept that not everyone lays down a vote at the same speed, but I find his Day 2 play highly suspect, and in complete contrast to what I find to be townie behavior.


@PorkchopExpress - Can you point to the exact moment where everyone concluded that Startrasmission was town? Seems to me that I read it, and agreed with it, but I can't find it now. I ask because I saw he was a proponent of giving Ash a break for his posting style, just as Tubby was, and I wanted a chance to review.


@ Tubby - Something? Anything? Whatever team you're on, surely it would be assisted by your participation. Many of your posts are the echoing of others thoughts, and that may get you my vote if we go up against a deadline. Anything of your own to add on any of the players?

[startransmission]

So, due to the lack of a defense and an apparent throwing in of the towel I

Vote: tubby216.

His attitude is just too anti-town to be let go. If I had a better candidate I would vote for them. The case against Nikanor is decent, and I'd like to get into Pads a bit. I'm having to remind myself as I read that there can't be any bussing going on, and it's tripping me up.

But for the time being tubby216 is the clear choice for me.

[Nikanor]

This has to be scum talking. Townies are impulsive and self-righteous with their votes, and not so calculating. Especially considering the quick Day 3 vote on a person he wasn't voting for yesterday.

I can see where you're coming from when it comes to tubby. Not hammering purple princess, on the other hand, cannot be considered scummy by even the longest stretch, and I don't see how you are trying to make it seem that way. If I had hammered pp yesterday as soon as I had made a case on her, many of the things tubby had done day one that were scummy would not have been addressed. It could have been the same with MME.

Rolefishing (let's out the cop)

I've seen that strategy work before in a newbie game. Basically, worst case scenario, the scum hits the doc on that night, then kills the cop the following night going into lylo. Even if the cop's target on n1 was the dead person, and his n2 on the doc, his n3 target will be confirmed, as the scum will be forced to kill the cop. This leaves us with one confirmed townie in 3p lylo in the absolute worst case scenario. If the scum doesn't hit the doc on n2, he loses. I can't believe you've never seen this strategy suggested before.

attempting to placate his attackers

Stop using words intended to make me look worse, thanks.
And anyway, what would you have me do? I could have totally ignored MME on d2.

@PorkchopExpress - Can you point to the exact moment where everyone concluded that Startrasmission was town? Seems to me that I read it, and agreed with it, but I can't find it now. I ask because I saw he was a proponent of giving Ash a break for his posting style, just as Tubby was, and I wanted a chance to review.

I mentioned it in one of my posts. Rustyshark completely misrepresented startrans at the beginning of day one, which I cannot see as partnerlike behaviour.

[Pads]

Even if the cop's target on n1 was the dead person, and his n2 on the doc, his n3 target will be confirmed, as the scum will be forced to kill the cop.

I don't think the cop reports his Night 3 findings, since he's dead.

Although I have never seen the strategy used, I understand the potential benefits. I also know it it gives what must be a very worried scum team one less person to choose from when looking for the doc. Potentially, it can be great, of course, but I don't limit its suggestion to townie players. And call me paranoid, but I don't like 'plans' in mafia games.

Stop using words intended to make me look worse, thanks.

If you can think of another word that is more appropriate I'll use it, but placating attackers is a common scum strategy. Stopping the attacker from dragging the scum out in the sunlight, as it were, for all to see, but doing it in such a way that doesn't further agitate the attacker is a pretty good idea for scum. That self-righteous aura that townies tend to get usually causes them to bristle upon being attacked, and it makes for a noticeably different response than a scum trying to get out of the spotlight.

I mentioned it in one of my posts. Rustyshark completely misrepresented startrans at the beginning of day one, which I cannot see as partnerlike behaviour.

I'll give that a look, since I think we're headed to a Day 4, and it certainly looks like Startransmission knows we're headed to a Day 4. I mean, seriously, a townie hammering the person they think is the last scum, which would be for the win, while at the same time saying that they'll look into two other cases?

[PorkchopExpress]

Hmm, good catch Pads. I'm going to isoread Startrans, if the worst comes to the worst. (Also, please excuse my absence but I'm working on a portfolio for a graduate course, and I'm experiencing some major disasters.)

[hohum]

Sorry for my tardiness once again.

I promise I'll stay on top of this game

Final Vote Count:

tubby216(3): Nikanor, Porkchopexpress, startransmission
Nikanor(2): tubby216, Pads

Not Voting(0):

With 5 Alive it takes 3 to lynch

tubby216,

Vanilla Townie,

Lynched, D3

Night actions due in 72 hours

[hohum]

pads,

Vanilla Townie,

Killed, N3.

It is now Day 4. Good luck!

[startransmission]

Well, that settles a few things for me. I'll hold off on my vote for the time being, but I certainly know where it'll probably be going.

[PorkchopExpress]

I'm not entirely sure how you settled any suspicions from the NK, Star. A reread of Day 1 has me seeing some suspicious behaviour between Rusty/Ash and Carrick16/Nik.

[Nikanor]

I'm not entirely sure how you settled any suspicions from the NK, Star. A reread of Day 1 has me seeing some suspicious behaviour between Rusty/Ash and Carrick16/Nik.

Why do you assume the nk points toward you as scum, Porkchop?

[PorkchopExpress]

I'd like you to point out where I made that assumption, Nik.

[Nikanor]

The way your sentence is worded implies that you think startrans is looking at you as being guilty for the Pads kill.

I'm not entirely sure how you settled any suspicions from the NK, Star. A reread of Day 1 has me seeing some suspicious behaviour between Rusty/Ash and Carrick16/Nik.

When you say, 'I'm not entirely sure how you settled any suspicions from the nk,' you mean that the nk tells you nothing about who may be scum. Then, you say that you see some 'suspicious behaviour between Rusty/Ash and Carrick/Nik,' on day one. The way you have worded the second sentence makes it seem like you are attempting to form a defence by pointing the finger at me.

[PorkchopExpress]

Wonderful, a vague linguistic argument that actually fails to demonstrate why/how I think the NK implicates me. Trying to link those sentences like that is a stretch on your part. Of course, considering that you emphasised your townie read on Startran, while you passed up the opportunity to analyse me; I can't say that I'm surprised that you're reaching.

At this point, I'd like Startran to throw his hat into the ring. How about some details?

[Nikanor]

Wonderful, a vague linguistic argument that actually fails to demonstrate why/how I think the NK implicates me. Trying to link those sentences like that is a stretch on your part. Of course, considering that you emphasised your townie read on Startran, while you passed up the opportunity to analyse me; I can't say that I'm surprised that you're reaching.

Pfft. I'm a linguist by nature, so of course I'm going to notice and point out barely noticeable semantic slips, such as the one you have committed.

[PorkchopExpress]

Ok, Star is long overdue for a prod.

[PorkchopExpress]

Lurking at this point, especially in light of his first post strikes me as fairly scummy.