Mini 767: Cubic Mafia (Game Over!)

[Mastin]

If we can find kill patterns (mafia or serial killer or otherwise), we can have more accurate protects if there is a doc.

Hmm...
Anyone else remember what KoC claimed? (Setting up a doctor claim, anyone?)

Yea...looks fairly bad.

A hunch. Nothing more. Just a hunch, for thinking SSK is scum.

1). I'm, quite suprised that my suspiscions have enough pull to start this much conversation. I didn't realize I had such a pivotal role in this game.

Madeof claimed 'nilla...yet this quote seems to be breadcrumbing a power role.

Casts doubt on Seraphim.

If you were town: maybe you have some sort of power role that lets you investigate, and you know ssk is a mislynch, and so don't want to hammer him.

This was 1: Rolefishing my predecessor,
and
2: Possibly a scumslip. If Trumpet was some sort of investigative role pushing for Madeof's lynch, then said investigative role would likely have a guilty, not an innocent on SSK. (Reference: Newbie 742.)

by suggesting that you have info that we don't I was suggesting that you have a power that some of us don't. If you're town that would be role outing. But you could just as easily be scum in my eyes. If you were scum, it would only be natural for you to know who's townie and who's not.

Seems like a poor covering for his actions, a poor explanation for rolefishing.

Furthermore, a role out would only help find scum at this point because it seems to me like all of the town power roles have already been outed. After all, this is a normal setup, and we have a claimed watcher, a confirmed one-shot vig (dead), a confirmed mod-confirmable townie (dead). The only players with extra info are scum. I think that you seemed like you had outside info, and so I had a good reason to suspect that you were scum.

Seems to me, he's screaming,
"Don't claim power role, buddy!"
This was also evidence that Madeof was locked into a 'nilla claim at this point in time, despite having earlier breadcrumbed doctor.

2).on who is scum, although I agree that KoC has been acting oddly, but I want to see what he makes of today before any votes are placed, because as caf stated we could be at lylo right now, and voting wantonly could provide a very bad result. I would suggest unvoting, because if there are two scum then with one vote on someone on a three to lynch day means that as soon as one person votes a townie, the suppossed two scum could jump on and quicklynch for win.

Reeks of weak bussing,

3). I'm not sure who I want lynched yet b/c I don't havce a very strong case on anyone.

And then states he doesn't have anyone who he thinks should be lynched yet because he doesn't have a strong case on anyone,
-Despite having just somewhat agreed on KoC,
-And despite the fact that he had been giving cases previously and seemed to have suspicions against my predecessor.

In addition to that, having no strong suspects in lylo-->A slight scumtell. He should've had daysworth of content for suspicions.

He also attacks B_B (who flipped town) in that same post,

Beyond birthday is assumed town ever since he claimed watcher d2 which got us able to lynch our first scum, Isacc. however, D3 he stated:
Beyond Birthday wrote:
Doesn't matter, I was role blocked making my ability utterly useless until we target the role blocker with our lynch or he finds someone more worthy of his prevention skills.
then today:
Beyond Birthday wrote:
I've got nothing
Which I'm assuming means that he was roleblocked again?

He also never voted in lylo. Off to the third, Channel.

[Mastin]

My gut from the first read is leaning towards Trumpet but I don't want to go on gut at this stage.

Seems rather OMGUS'd, considering Trumpet's suspicions.

I'm trying to decide to what, if any, extent Trumpet's disappearances were a tactic.

Now this is BS. I don't have my role PM yet, but I can say that much. Trumpet is on a very extended V/LA and no longer able to play.

You doubt the sincerity of an extended V/LA?

but the problem is that there's just been so little activity of any kind from Trumpet/Lindisfarne that it's hard to get any kind of contrasting read on him.

This is also BS.

Trumpet had 38 good, long, solid (and with good logic) posts.

Phily had 23 short posts.

Madeof had 17 posts of varying length, mostly about a paragraph or two in length.

You have a grand total of five, none longer than a paragraph, and with only brief summaries on the players thusfar.

Put together, your role outweighs the number of posts by Trumpet by rather some bit.

Individually, though, each of the three in your role haven't had as many posts as Trumpet did.

---

I am agreeing with Trumpet's reads. Channel's likely the last scum.

Channel's opinion reeks of OMGUS to me.

What are your thoughts, Caf?

[Kairyuu]

Yeah. Mastin replaces Lindisfarne, effective . . . umm. Some time ago apparently.

[Mastin]

Time for a Bandwagon Analysis, from the first vote count onward, counting roles. 'Cause I can, I'm bored, and I'm waiting for Kai to give me my role. (I'll get to iso-reading confirmed scum after this)

Red will represent confirmed mafia, and

green

(not unless I want to be modkilled ) blue will represent confirmed town.

Votecount 1:

Walnut(1)

: PhilyEc

Dourgrim(1)

:

magnus_orion

magnus_orion(1): Riceballtail

Isacc(1)

: caf19

With 12 players alive it's 7 to lynch.

Walnut(1)

: PhilyEc

Dourgrim(2)

:

magnus_orion; Flame

magnus_orion(1): Riceballtail

Isacc(1)

: caf19

Flame(1): Walnut

Riceballtail(2): Beyond_Birthday

; Trumpet of Doom

Beyond_Birthday(1)

:

Isacc

PhilyEc(1):

Dourgrim

Not Voting(2):

Southland; Nocmen

Isaac's voting a now-confirmed clear, Dour's voting Phily (Channel), and Phily's voting Walnut (town). Caf's voting Isaac as well. It's an interesting pattern, to say the least. I do my best analyzing after seeing this in a post, though, so can't make out potential pairings yet.

Votecount 3:

Walnut(1)

: PhilyEc

Dourgrim(1)

:

Flame

Isacc(1)

: caf19

Flame(1): Walnut

Riceballtail(1): Beyond_Birthday

Beyond_Birthday(1)

:

Isacc

PhilyEc(1):

Dourgrim

Southland(1): Riceballtail

Not Voting(2):

Southland; Nocmen; magnus_orion

; Trumpet of Doom

Votecount 4:

Walnut(1)

: PhilyEc

Dourgrim(1)

:

Flame

Isacc(1)

: caf19

Flame(1): Walnut

PhilyEc(2):

magnus_orion

;

Isacc

MafiaSSK(1): Riceballtail

Beyond_Birthday(1): Nocmen

magnus_orion(2)

:

Dourgrim

;

MafiaSSK

Not Voting(2): Trumpet of Doom;

Beyond_Birthday

Votecount 5:

Walnut(1)

: Trumpet of Doom

Dourgrim(1)

:

Seraphim

Flame(1): Walnut

PhilyEc(4):

magnus_orion

; Isacc[/color]; caf19;

Beyond_Birthday

MafiaSSK(1): Riceballtail

magnus_orion(1)

:

Dourgrim

;

Not Voting(3): PhilyEc;

Nocmen; MafiaSSK

Now, THIS is interesting. Phily got a good bandwagon on him, and lived.

Votecount 6:

Walnut(3)

: Trumpet of Doom;

Riceballtail; MafiaSSK

Dourgrim(1)

:

Seraphim

Flame(1): Walnut

PhilyEc(2):

magnus_orion;

caf19

magnus_orion(1

):

Dourgrim

;

Riceballtail(2): Nocmen; Beyond Birthday

Not Voting(2): PhilyEc;

Isacc

;

Note how Isaac (scum) unvoted Phily. There's a strong possibility this was an attempt to avoid Phily (roleblocker, as BB [confirmed watcher] claimed roleblocked) from getting lynched.

Votecount 7 (The 72 hours to deadline votecount):

Walnut(5)

: Trumpet of Doom;

Riceballtail; MafiaSSK

;

Isacc

;

Beyond_Birthday

Dourgrim(1)

:

Seraphim

Seraphim(1): Walnut

PhilyEc(2):

magnus_orion

; caf19

magnus_orion(1)

:

Dourgrim

;

Riceballtail(1): Nocmen

Not Voting(1): PhilyEc;

And this was the last vote count of the day. Isaac switched from Phily to Walnut, a mislynch. Also note how Magnus, the scum nk, was voting for Phily near the end of the day.

---

More analyzing will come after posting this, but I see a clear Phily-scum possibility.

[Mastin]

And, just as expected, I am, indeed, a vanilla townie.

Analyzing the day one bandwagons, and then going to do an iso-read on all confirmed scum players.

[Mastin]

I strongly suspect that both the confirmed scum (Dourgrim, Isaac) were early-on bussing, but later backed off. This is proven by the fact that both had voted Phily, and later switched to other targets and never took those votes off.

Time for the Iso-read of the confirmed scum players. (After that, I'll analyze the vote counts on the other days as well.)

So far, Phily's looking bad, bad, and worse, as time moves along.

[Mastin]

Also, Channel, I saw you just post in another thread; why don't you pay this game a little visit?

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, Channel, I saw you just post in another thread; why don't you pay this game a little visit?

I'm just waiting for you to finish your posting rampage before I try to tackle it...

[Mastin]

Mod:

LindisfarneTrumpet of Doom

Needs updating. Something like

Mastin

Lindisfarne

[/size=4]Trumpet of Doom[/size]

Or whatever sizes you used for Channel's replacements.

Fixed

[Mastin]

(Whoops. Messed that second size tag up. Ah, well. Got the message across.)

[Mastin]

You'll be waiting a while. I've got a lot to analyze this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

You'll be waiting a while. I've got a lot to analyze this game.

We have time...

[Mastin]

Maybe Dourgrim's answer will change my mind, but in the meantime, I think Phil is the strongest suspect. Vote: Phillyec

Reeks of bussing to me. We know about Dour; I wouldn't eliminate a double-buss, either.

unvote until then though, I don't want to lynch before I read what has happened.

Reads to me:
"I don't want my buddy lynched before I can get another person to push against."

Philly has done nothing to make himself seem more town.

Considering what little content I saw from Phily in a quick-Iso-read, I somehow severely doubt this.

This blatantly contradicts with him saying he thought Phily had done nothing but make himself look more pro-town.

Further evidence in my mind that Isaac was trying to buss Phily, yet keep Phily alive.

Despite Phily being his top suspect, he fails to vote for Phily. Fairly condemning, in my opinion.

He also only pointed out that Phily hadn't posted. Yet with the number of replacements on day one, I imagine that rather some number of people hadn't posted much on day one, either.

He drops all Phily accusations due to replacement issues, and votes for the mislynch.
Seems like dropping a bus to me.

Mentions no suspicion of Phily at all--What happened to Phily being one of the scummiest players alive?
Answer: "I don't want to follow through on this bus."

1) Take a look at MadeofPhail. Starts of wanting to discuss night actions (DING DING DING) and then jumps pretty quick on this wagon.

Phily's replacement makes it into his scum list, but for entirely different reasons.

2) I'd watch out for Caf19. Notice his last post says I am the right lynch, but he fails to actually vote me, and asks others' opinions first. Seems like he wants to make sure he's getting on the popular wagon before he commits.

First mentioning of Caf all game...

3) MafiaSSK is another Walnut wagon surprise. I don't really think he ever gave any explanation at all for that vote.

Proven town.
Definitely agree with my predecessor in that one of the three he listed there is scum. Now, with only those two alive besides me, this has been all-but confirmed.

---

Yea...not looking good for Channel at all.

[Mastin]

Dour's next on the chopping block.
He had a random vote for Phily (reasoning: He's asking for votes), but other than that, not much.

On a side note, I noticed an inconsistency just above. Sorry for the long quote, but I don't know how to avoid it and still make my point clearly (bolding is mine):
caf19 wrote:
So, do you find PhilyEc suspicious for his condemnatory reaction to your omgus? You seem to be using the tactic solely to judge Nocmen and ignoring the reactions of others.

Personally, I didn't find it overtly scummy, but I did find it slightly weird, which is something your posts have struck me as several times. I'm still not sure whether you are more concerned with finding scum or just messing around and confusing people.

Anyway, PhilyEc continues to bother me. It's just so easy to pull people up for something obvious like Omgus, as he did in his last post. His tone also seems quite assured ("care to redeem yourself before I'm completely convinced you're mafia?"), which makes me think he's planning to push further. Possible scum behaviour.

<snipped to save space>

I'd say Phily is in danger of getting my vote now, and needs to address my points and make a more decent attempt at scumhunting. It's pretty impossible to get a read on MafiaSSK, Flame (being replaced I know) or Trumpet at this stage - I would really like to get something from them before I commit.
The first part of this quote seems to say, "You thought he was scummy? I didn't think he was scummy." Then, as the post goes on, it turns into "this is scummy, that's scummy," and suddenly he's the likely candidate for a vote. Was this a contradiction like it seems at first blush, or was this you "talking out loud" and coming to a contradictory conclusion while you were typing? I get why you think PhilyEc seems scummy, and I agree to an extent, but couching it with the first part, the "it didn't look scummy, just weird" part, seems like you're giving yourself an out in case you don't get support on your theory.

Definitely possible Chainsaw Defense of Phily, via proxy of attacking caf.

Most of Dour's posts were addressing Magnus/B_B/A bit of Noc as well, so that's all there is from him.

On to his replacement, KoC. Now, I already know from looking at the other players I have in Isolation that there's a great deal of KoC-made interaction.

[Mastin]

This kinda feels like misrepresentation, because phail looks like he's talking about night actions rather than outing power roles in his second post. That might just be me misreading horribly, though.

Immediately opens up by defending madeof.

There's this one third stuff again. Of the three, two are proven town.
Guess what that leaves?

(Yup. Phil/Madeof/Channel.)

Knight's lack of quoting is bothersome,
But he goes from attacking SSK to defending SSK, presumably from people attacking SSK, I'd imagine.

This continues,

But with no quotes for context, My guess is this talking about hammering SSK.

Back, and thinking.
Trumpet, I don't like your "Either I'm scum, or KoC is scum, therefore KoC is scum" argument. The fact that two scum haven't leapt on suggests that you're hoping some poor townie will also jump on, at which point your buddy hammers. Typical scum LyLo tactic.
The lack of any results whatsoever since Isaac means either B_B is scum using "blocked" in conjuction with a massive bus to get clear, or town. I'm leaning town, but not discounting all the possibilities.
made worries me in an indefinable way, which is almost more worrying that a suspicion I can nail down and say "this, this and this is really scummy".

I hate the fact that he ignored the only other two alive players. Would've been much simpler if he only ignored one.

2) I would be comfortable with lynching madeofphail or caf19, with caf19 being my preference.

Much better! Out of the blue, mentioning two suspects not mentioned before!
(...But d*censored* the scum for picking the only two people alive...)

I still think this line was meant as a weak bus against Madeofphail, while attacking the pro-town player of the two, so that if he got the pro-town player lynched, instant win. If he got his buddy lynched, it'd make him look really good going into lylo.

- constant flip-flopping on his stance on role-outing
- role-outing, then saying he wasn't, then saying he was
- supposedly directing a scum-buddy to claim a PR.

I find the last here rather ironic and condemning, considering Knight (mafia) claimed to be a power role.

---

Definitely looks REALLY bad for Channel after looking at all of this. I'm confident that the other days' bandwagons will be the final nail in Channel's coffin.

[Mastin]

Same color scheme.

Votecount 1 of D2:

Isacc(2)

:

Beyond_Birthday

; Trumpet of Doom
Beyond_Birthday(1)[/color]:

Isacc

Not Voting (6):

Nocmen; Seraphim

; caf19; madeofphail;

MafiaSSK

;

Dourgrim

Votecount 2 of D2:

Isacc(4)

:

Beyond_Birthday

; Trumpet of Doom; madeofphail;

MafiaSSK

Beyond_Birthday(1)

:

Isacc

Not Voting (4):

Nocmen; Seraphim

; caf19;

Dourgrim

Final votecount of D2:

Isacc(5)

:

Beyond_Birthday

; Trumpet of Doom; madeofphail;

MafiaSSK; Seraphim

Beyond_Birthday(1)[/color]:

Isacc

Not Voting (3):

Nocmen

; caf19;

Dourgrim

What's concerning is caf not voting, like Dour. However, liked KoC said when replacing in (I think it was KoC, anyway), the scum had plenty of time to buss. If we believe he was telling the truth, this seems to implicate madeofphail, considering how almost everyone else is confirmed town, and the only other one there is me. (Well, my predecessor)

Votecount 1 of Day 3:

madeofphail(1): Trumpet of Doom

MafiaSSK(3):Seraphim

; madeofphail; caf19

Seraphim(1): Beyond_Birthday

Not voting(2):

MafiaSSK

,

Knight of Cydonia

My predecessor goes hard against madeofphail. Madeofphail bandwagons SSK. Knight remains unvoted.

Votecount:

Knight of Cydonia(2)

: Trumpet of Doom;

Beyond_Birthday

Not Voting (3): caf19; madeofphail;

Knight of Cydonia

Interesting, how neither caf nor Madeofphail are voting, nor is Knight. I can safely say from my point of view that both scum weren't voting in that vote count.

---

That's the last vote count the mod has given.
Overall, though, Phily looks bad, Madeof looks worse, and by extent, that makes Channel look like my primary suspect.

[Mastin]

Right, so I should be finished. Channel, caf, your turn.

Suspects.
Now,
why,
reasoning,
quotes/hyperlinks,
evidence.

[Mastin]

Okay, this is ridiculous.
Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:25 pm Post subject: 616

Current time:
Jul 02, 9:30 pm.

That's got to be nearing the 36 mark for MY post.

Mod, prods are in order

.

[Kairyuu]

Prodding CDB and caf19, as per request.

[caf19]

Lylo sux. I've reached the ol' LyLo uncertain oscillation-fest, hopping between Phily/phail's scumminess and Trumpet's early absences, wondering which is more of a cause for worry... I'll be interested to see who Delibird comes out suspecting, that could help to tip the scales.

Mastin's analysis highlighted to me a couple of points that I find interesting:

- the wagon on Phily D1 that evaporated after a while. After Kairyuu posted the votecount with Phily in the lead (252), Isacc swiftly unvoted (259). Bizarrely, his next post (275) reaffirms his Phily-suspicion:

Philly has done nothing to make himself seem more town. However, Magnus's request is fair and I think waiting for him to make an attempt at being protown is a good idea (though didn't we do this before...?)

Magnus's case on my vote on Philly: I remember this accusation...it was placed on me already...but hey, I'll argue it again. There was a specifically damning post by Philly in my eyes, which came before Magnus's post. Thus, I felt that a vote had been earned. If you notice, Magnus's voting post was only a few minutes before mine, and I do not precisely remember now (it was how long ago?) but I think I had been writing it while Magnus posted.

Anyways, the other fact is, it's all well and good to speculate this except that I actually find him scummy. If he flips town, that'll be unfortunate, but I have no real evidence to believe he will at this point.

Yet, he doesn't vote Phily again. In subsequent posts, Isacc switches to tunnelling on Walnut. As for the other Phily-voters, BB unvotes for some reason (implies he's becoming more suspicious of magnus) in 299, and magnus joined in the late-developing Walnut wagon. In the end it was largely Phily's lurking that saved him D1 as opposed to mass scum action, but Isacc's switch to Walnut is nevertheless notable for its swift and total nature.

- The problem with the Walnut wagon is that both Phily and Trumpet were largely absent for its formation. This is particularly irksome in the case of Trumpet, who was actually voting Walnut at the time. Scum staying behind the scenes? There's no real way to tell. Bah. Thing is, it was obviously scum-led because most of the people on it were following Isacc's substantial case to some extent. If Isacc was saving Phily's ass here, he did a very good job.

- As for the Isacc wagon, I don't think we can take much from who was or wasn't on it. Only the most foolish scumbuddy would have tried to defend him, as he was obviously going to be the lynch.

---

Regarding yesterday, I want to know what the two of you think about Trumpet's eagerness to get Knight lynched. Is it a town tell or a bus? (obviously both of you will be somewhat biased in your views, but it can't hurt to make the case anyway).

Personally, I was worried yesterday that Trumpet's "let's end the day quickly" spiel was a scum ploy to get a townie lynched swiftly, but now that KoC's flipped scum I guess I'd consider it a town tell. The overconfident tone (e.g. "Let's lynch him already!" in 565) worries me somewhat, as it could imply that he already knew KoC was scum and was trying to seem as obviously protown as possible. However, it does strike me that Trumpet-scum could as easily have pushed a lynch on, say, phail.

As you can tell, I'm still vacillating rather uselessly but phail/Delibird still seems a scummier player. ChannelD, make your case and convince me.

[caf19]

Also, I wonder why the scum decided to kill BB at last. They could still have blocked him and killed someone else. I guess maybe it's because he became the least suspected player... who knows.

[Kairyuu]

Mmk. I'm sick of the crap activity levels of this game. I'm reinstating the deadline.

Deadline will hit Saturday, July 11, at noon EST. This deadline is non-negotiable, and a full majority is required to lynch.

Hop to it.

[Mastin]

Good, solid post.
I found that Trumpet was scum hunting, and doing a darn-good job at it. He nailed KoC, and had severe suspicion of madeofphail.

That's generally the idea. Good scum don't kill players who suspect them.
Good scum kill players who look solidly pro-town.

B_B fit into this category, and was almost certainly NK'd because of it. (Speaking of which, might be a good idea to do an iso-read, anyway, despite how I think it was due to B_B's pro-town appearance.)

[ChannelDelibird]

Got my prod, just wanted to let you know that I am still here and working on my analysis. RL has gotten in the way of me posting anything substantial, if at all, in all of my games at the moment, which you are welcome to check to confirm.

[Mastin]

Got my prod, just wanted to let you know that I am still here and working on my analysis.

We are waiting on you. I've done mine, caf just did his...

RL has gotten in the way of me posting anything substantial, if at all, in all of my games at the moment, which you are welcome to check to confirm.

Oh, I believe you. It's annoying, but I'll have to wait.