Open 289 - Hard Boiled - Game over.

[Vordark]

Active again after a rather busy weekend. I'll re-read the thread later today.

[Umbrage]

Until you accept that throwing out a theory and pretending you've proven something is a bullshit way to approach a game containing more than one person, your posts are going to continue to lack any value.

Cool story bro. But it doesn't change the facts:

I still have yet to see a valid argument against the HT claiming other than 'MAJORITY DONT WANT SO SUK IT RETARD'.

For every concern against my plan made thus far, I've proven why it still works. If you think otherwise, cite examples. I have no interest in starting a pissing match with you. Either show some reasoning or get out. I'd like to remind you that you were the one to bring this up after I agreed to no-lynch. I've already proven everything I need to prove, and I don't need to justify myself to you at this point in time.

You know, until you make an argument worth responding to, I'll just cut and paste this message in reply! It'll save time that I could use for important things!

[Vordark]

I count 145 posts made since sunrise. Based on a quick run-through, I count about 40 posts that contain actual scum hunting. Everything else is either Ythan snarking/being snarked at, arguments over the HT claiming, arguments about no-lynching and assorted admin/overhead posts.

Absent an explanation as to how Day Three will be any different than Day Two, no-lynch sounds like a terrible idea to me. It gives us no information apart from a single town flip at sun-rise. If that flip isn't the HT, we're right back where we started today.

If it's a choice between no-lynching and doing nothing, versus the HT claiming and giving us a chance of taking out scum, I'd rather see the claim.

[Umbrage]

If it's a choice between no-lynching and doing nothing, versus the HT claiming and giving us a chance of taking out scum, I'd rather see the claim.

This. If we're going to have any chance killing scum today, the HT claims in their next post. If the HT insists on being stupid, we cut our losses and no-lynch.

I will vote no-lynch if/when all players have posted and there is no HT claim.

[Umbrage]

I mean, hell, at this point it's obvious neither Vordark or myself are the HT, or we'd have claimed. Assuming he's not scum, it's a one in four chance the HT will be dead if we no-lynch. If we mislynch, it's a one in three chance. Actually, the odds are probably higher than that seeing as the scum hit the most dangerous PR with their first shot. HT, are you really comfortable with all that? Are you sure you want to go into the night unclaimed? This will likely be your last chance.

[Abelcain]

If it's possible for you to do both, that would be highly appreciated. From re-reading interactions I feel the need to get some thoughts down before I forget them later. If you need any explained just ask and I'll elaborate.

If Umbrage is mafia Snake and Ythan are town.
If Snake is mafia Umbrage is town.
If Darth is mafia Vordark and Abelcain are town.
If Abelcain is mafia Darth is town.
If Krazy is mafia Ythan is town.
If Ythan is mafia Krazy and Umbrage are town.
If Vordark is mafia Darth is town.

@Regfan, can you be sure that some of those aren't just bus-masked relationships? For example, if Krazy and Ythan are scumpartners they might be staging their arguments to create a really nasty chasm between them. Their "history" of not getting along only lets them make the argument seem more realistic.



I didn't want to get involved in the whole Umbrage/Ythan thing, but I would like to point out that Umbrage is... technically... right. There is no real "flaw" in his plan, as such. Having the HT claim today and go for the lynch is a perfectly valid line of action to take. But, Umbrage, just because there's one good plan doesn't mean it's the

best

plan. Sometimes there are better plans, even if yours isn't "flawed." Most of us just think the no-lynch plan is a

better

plan, is all. It doesn't help that your plan really hopes that the Det/Psy can get a guilty and I've already pointed out why the guilty can be completely overwritten by a scum counterclaim if we don't have another mislynch available.

I mean, hell, at this point it's obvious neither Vordark or myself are the HT, or we'd have claimed. Assuming he's not scum, it's a one in four chance the HT will be dead if we no-lynch. If we mislynch, it's a one in three chance. Actually, the odds are probably higher than that seeing as the scum hit the most dangerous PR with their first shot. HT, are you really comfortable with all that? Are you sure you want to go into the night unclaimed? This will likely be your last chance.

Now I'm convinced that Umbrage is rolefishing. He seems more interested in figuring out who the PRs are than whether or not they are any use. This is especially glaring since he agreed with the no-lynch plan only a few posts ago, which hopes that both PRs remain safe, and he's now announcing who he thinks is not the HT.

Even if the HT gets killed during the night, we still have the Det/Psy. Like I said earlier, the Det/Psy's guilty can be defeated by a counterclaim, so the Det/Psy is just a unique claim in the same vein as the HT (although if we ever manage to confirm who the Det/Psy is,

and

he has a guilty, we have scum). So if the HT

does

get killed during the night, the Det/Psy claims tomorrow. Simple as that. Then we'll still have your precious confirmed town you want to turn the HT into. Besides, if we're no-lynching, having the HT claim just means the HT dies at night

anyway

. Wouldn't you rather have the (since you pointed it out) one-in-four chance that the HT gets killed, other than the one-in-one chance that he gets killed after claiming?

I would

also

have hoped that the HT would wait on his claim even if he didn't agree with the no-lynch plan, because so many other people agree with the no-lynch plan and there's no way everyone arguing for the no-lynch is scum.

I don't understand why you're so confident that the scum knew that CS was the vig/tracker. From what I remember of Day 1, there wasn't a whole lot of suspicion being thrown at CS by the end of the day - in particular, the only people I really remember that thought he was scummy were DY, who changed his read on him about halfway through the day to finding him townish anyway, and you with your capsrage posts so nobody was taking the you very seriously anyway on your CS case. Which would make CS probably the player with the fewest scumreads on him, and a good candidate for a "most pro-town player" to kill. I don't remember seeing any PR-tells anywhere in his posts (please point them out to me if you see them), so at this point the only person who seems to be helping the scum figure out who's a PR is

you

by trying to narrow down the HT.

Finally, your last few sentences ("HT, are you really comfortable with that?" etc.) sound like so much AtE it's making my scumdar go crazy. I can't imagine any way that trying to scare the HT into claiming can possibly be considered pro-town.

[Umbrage]

DAMN IT.

IT IS THE BEST PLAN.

I HAVE PROVEN THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO NO-LYNCHING THAT IS NOT ACHIEVED BY CLAIMING AND LYNCHING.

NOW YOU'RE SAYING I'M ROLEFISHING?

USE YOUR HEAD. SCUM DON'T WANT TO FIND THE HT. THE HT IS USELESS. THEY WANT TO FIND THE D/P.

MY PLAN ENSURES THAT THE SCUM DO NOT FUCKING KILL THE D/P.

ERGO IF I AM ROLEFISHING THE WORST THING THAT COULD HAPPEN TO ME IS IF PEOPLE DID WHAT I TOLD THEM TO DO.

IF I AM SCUM, THEN I AM SCREWED BY MY OWN FUCKING PLAN.

THIS GAME IS DYING. HALF THE PLAYERS ARE FUCKING GONE. I'M THE ONLY ONE WHO'S STILL TRYING TO LYNCH SCUM.

THE HT CLAIMING GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF LYNCHING SCUM TODAY.

THAT'S ALL I CARE ABOUT. LYNCHING SCUM.

DO YOU WANT TO LYNCH SCUM?

THEN THE HT HAD BETTER FUCKING CLAIM.

[Regfan]

Umbrage - If what you're after is the HT claiming today then a lynch would occur. With that said, the HT claiming shouldn't make too much of a difference towards your reads (Except for the read in relation to that person), so I'm going to assume you would want a Krazy/Abelcain lynch if so, can you present a case towars them. Also, what do you make of Abelcains recent posts and suggestion for a no-lynch, town-tell, scum-tell, null-tell?

Vordark - The idea behind NL'ing today if you still don't understand is that we have to either NL today or tommorow due the number situation we are currently in. With HT claiming today it guarentees a PR death tonight instead of keeping it at 2/6. The only upside towards a HT claiming is in the 50% chance that we got the power-role that is effective in this setup and that he manages to get relevant results.

[Abelcain]

DAMN IT.

IT IS THE BEST PLAN.

I HAVE PROVEN THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO NO-LYNCHING THAT IS NOT ACHIEVED BY CLAIMING AND LYNCHING.

By no-lynching, the worst case scenario is that tomorrow we have one unique claim and a mislynch available in case the scum try to counterclaim on that unique claim. The best case scenario is that tomorrow we have

two

unique claims and a mislynch that we can use to try to prove either of those claims. Prove that there is any way that the claim and lynch plan has the advantage that my best-case scenario has.

NOW YOU'RE SAYING I'M ROLEFISHING?

USE YOUR HEAD. SCUM DON'T WANT TO FIND THE HT. THE HT IS USELESS. THEY WANT TO FIND THE D/P.

MY PLAN ENSURES THAT THE SCUM DO NOT FUCKING KILL THE D/P.

I've already demonstrated that the Det/Psy is just about as useless as the HT. I can't believe you don't understand that, but let me spell it out for you. Let's assume that the HT claims today, but we mislynch. Tonight, the HT gets killed. Even if the Det/Psy gets a guilty, here's how tomorrow plays out:

Person A: Hi, I'm the Det/Psy, and I have a guilty on Person B!
Person C: What are you talking about? I'm the Det/Psy, and I have a guilty on Person D!

Now who do you lynch? You have no more available mislynches since you mislynched the day before. Taking the no-lynch tomorrow results in the scum killing Person E, who is completely unrelated to the claims, that night. Now if you're person F you're in LyLo with only a 50/50 chance of winning. And that's only in the extremely small likelihood that the Det/Psy gets a guilty. Without a guilty, Person A and Person C both claim with no guilties, and you can't even lynch one to figure out the other because one mislynch ends in loss. And if one claimant claims a guilty, you still don't know if it's a reliable guilty or if it's a scumlie in an attempt to win.

Now that it is established that the Det/Psy's guilty result cannot be reliable without having a mislynch available to verify whether or not the guilty is coming from a real Det/Psy, the Det/Psy has essentially turned into what the HT is now.

ERGO IF I AM ROLEFISHING THE WORST THING THAT COULD HAPPEN TO ME IS IF PEOPLE DID WHAT I TOLD THEM TO DO.

IF I AM SCUM, THEN I AM SCREWED BY MY OWN FUCKING PLAN.

Nice try, but that's completely untrue. Scum are screwed if they go with the no-lynch plan, or at least more screwed than the claim/lynch plan. The best way to ensure that the town decides to go with the claim/lynch plan is to out the HT and/or force him to claim. If who the HT is becomes knowledge before the end of the day, then the no-lynch plan ceases to be the better plan because there's zero chance that the HT will survive the night. So if you're a rolefishing scum, the best thing that can happen to you is that you find the HT before the day is out because it forces the town to have to go with the claim/lynch plan.

THE HT CLAIMING GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF LYNCHING SCUM TODAY.

You're completely right, because the HT not claiming leads into us no-lynching which means we have zero chance of lynching scum today. But we have a much greater chance of lynching scum

tomorrow

. The HT claiming also gives us the best chance of mislynching today too.

THAT'S ALL I CARE ABOUT. LYNCHING SCUM.

DO YOU WANT TO LYNCH SCUM?

THEN THE HT HAD BETTER FUCKING CLAIM.

Today alone I called you out on trying to AtE the HT into claiming, rolefishing to try to find one of our two PRs, trying to coerce the town into following your plan rather than letting them make their own decision, and now here you're

threatening

the town to get the HT to claim. Why do you have such a problem with the majority making the decision? Why are you trying to force your plan to go through if the rest of the town doesn't want it to go through?

[Umbrage]

By no-lynching, the worst case scenario is that tomorrow we have one unique claim and a mislynch available in case the scum try to counterclaim on that unique claim. The best case scenario is that tomorrow we have two unique claims and a mislynch that we can use to try to prove either of those claims. Prove that there is any way that the claim and lynch plan has the advantage that my best-case scenario has.

HOW'S KILLING SCUM FOR AN ADVANTAGE?

NO?

WELL HOW ABOUT THIS: MY PLAN ENSURES WE WILL GET TWO LYNCHES WITH A CONFIRMED TOWNIE AVAILABLE, AND THE BEST CHANCE WE HAVE OF GETTING A GUILTY. YOUR PLAN HAS A CHANCE OF GETTING TWO CONFIRMED TOWNIES FOR ONE LYNCH, THAT IS IF THE SCUM DON'T COUNTER-CLAIM OR NO-KILL OR KILL A PR OR BASICALLY DO ANYTHING OF ANY IMPORTANCE.

I've already demonstrated that the Det/Psy is just about as useless as the HT. I can't believe you don't understand that, but let me spell it out for you. Let's assume that the HT claims today, but we mislynch. Tonight, the HT gets killed. Even if the Det/Psy gets a guilty, here's how tomorrow plays out:

Person A: Hi, I'm the Det/Psy, and I have a guilty on Person B!
Person C: What are you talking about? I'm the Det/Psy, and I have a guilty on Person D!

Now who do you lynch? You have no more available mislynches since you mislynched the day before. Taking the no-lynch tomorrow results in the scum killing Person E, who is completely unrelated to the claims, that night. Now if you're person F you're in LyLo with only a 50/50 chance of winning. And that's only in the extremely small likelihood that the Det/Psy gets a guilty. Without a guilty, Person A and Person C both claim with no guilties, and you can't even lynch one to figure out the other because one mislynch ends in loss. And if one claimant claims a guilty, you still don't know if it's a reliable guilty or if it's a scumlie in an attempt to win.

Now that it is established that the Det/Psy's guilty result cannot be reliable without having a mislynch available to verify whether or not the guilty is coming from a real Det/Psy, the Det/Psy has essentially turned into what the HT is now.

WHICH IS ALL THE MORE REASON WHY THE PRS SHOULD CLAIM SOONER RATHER THAN LATER, WHEN THE SCUM CAN COUNTER-CLAIM.

Nice try, but that's completely untrue. Scum are screwed if they go with the no-lynch plan, or at least more screwed than the claim/lynch plan. The best way to ensure that the town decides to go with the claim/lynch plan is to out the HT and/or force him to claim. If who the HT is becomes knowledge before the end of the day, then the no-lynch plan ceases to be the better plan because there's zero chance that the HT will survive the night. So if you're a rolefishing scum, the best thing that can happen to you is that you find the HT before the day is out because it forces the town to have to go with the claim/lynch plan.

BUT THE HT IS EXPENDABLE. THE D/P IS NOT.

WITH YOUR PLAN, SCUM CAN KILL WHOEVER THEY THINK IS THE D/P. WITH MY PLAN THE D/P IS SAFE.

REGARDLESS OF HOW GOOD YOU THINK YOUR PLAN IS, MY PLAN STILL FUCKS SCUM.

IF WE FOLLOW MY PLAN, SCUM ARE SCREWED. EITHER THEY ENSURE THE D/P LIVES ANOTHER NIGHT, OR THEY TAKE A GAMBLE OF HITTING THE D/P AND SUFFER ANOTHER DAY WITH AT LEAST ONE CONFIRMED TOWN.

EITHER WAY, TOWN WINS.

You're completely right, because the HT not claiming leads into us no-lynching which means we have zero chance of lynching scum today. But we have a much greater chance of lynching scum tomorrow. The HT claiming also gives us the best chance of mislynching today too.

THAT. IS. BULLSHIT.

HOW DOES THE HT CLAIMING MAKE A MISLYNCH MORE LIKELY?

Today alone I called you out on trying to AtE the HT into claiming, rolefishing to try to find one of our two PRs, trying to coerce the town into following your plan rather than letting them make their own decision, and now here you're threatening the town to get the HT to claim. Why do you have such a problem with the majority making the decision? Why are you trying to force your plan to go through if the rest of the town doesn't want it to go through?

HOW THE FUCK CAN I THREATEN ANYONE? WHAT POWERS DO I HAVE TO DO THAT EXACTLY?

[Abelcain]

WELL HOW ABOUT THIS: MY PLAN ENSURES WE WILL GET TWO LYNCHES WITH A CONFIRMED TOWNIE AVAILABLE, AND THE BEST CHANCE WE HAVE OF GETTING A GUILTY. YOUR PLAN HAS A CHANCE OF GETTING TWO CONFIRMED TOWNIES FOR ONE LYNCH, THAT IS IF THE SCUM DON'T COUNTER-CLAIM OR NO-KILL OR KILL A PR OR BASICALLY DO ANYTHING OF ANY IMPORTANCE.

Really? Because as far as I can tell, tomorrow scum can counterclaim too. So even if the scum decide to not counterclaim today, they can still counterclaim tomorrow, which means the "confirmed townie" for tomorrow's lynch won't be confirmed. My worst case scenario has the same effect as your best-case scenario, which is having a confirmed townie for one lynch. And a counterclaim can be beaten if there is a mislynch available, something that your plan is sorely missing.

WHICH IS ALL THE MORE REASON WHY THE PRS SHOULD CLAIM SOONER RATHER THAN LATER, WHEN THE SCUM CAN COUNTER-CLAIM.

Scum can also counter-claim tomorrow, to eliminate your Det/Psy's potential result. Did you even bother reading my post?

BUT THE HT IS EXPENDABLE. THE D/P IS NOT.

See above. Without an available mislynch, the Det/Psy is just as expendable as the HT.

WITH YOUR PLAN, SCUM CAN KILL WHOEVER THEY THINK IS THE D/P. WITH MY PLAN THE D/P IS SAFE.

REGARDLESS OF HOW GOOD YOU THINK YOUR PLAN IS, MY PLAN STILL FUCKS SCUM.

Your plan completely eliminates any possible use for the Det/Psy in any capacity, because there's no way to confirm that the Det/Psy's guilty isn't a scum lie. My plan at least gives us a chance to confirm the Det/Psy if he gets a guilty tonight, which automatically makes the Det/Psy a hell of a lot more useful than he can possibly be in your plan. For someone who's depending so much on the Det/Psy's guilty result, I'd think you'd take being able to actually use the guilty into consideration.

IF WE FOLLOW MY PLAN, SCUM ARE SCREWED. EITHER THEY ENSURE THE D/P LIVES ANOTHER NIGHT, OR THEY TAKE A GAMBLE OF HITTING THE D/P AND SUFFER ANOTHER DAY WITH AT LEAST ONE CONFIRMED TOWN.

EITHER WAY, TOWN WINS.

I think you have a really terrible definition of "win" here. Town doesn't win if the HT claims today. Town wins if we manage to eliminate all the scum. The HT claiming gives us even less of a chance of winning.

THAT. IS. BULLSHIT.

HOW DOES THE HT CLAIMING MAKE A MISLYNCH MORE LIKELY?

If the HT claims, we lynch. If he doesn't claim, we don't lynch. It's that simple. The optimal play without a claim is not lynching, and the optimal play with a claim is to lynch. So if the HT doesn't claim, there is a 0% chance of mislynching today, because we are not lynching. If the HT does claim, we have a chance greater than 0% of mislynching, therefore it is

more likely

that we will mislynch today with a claim than without a claim.

HOW THE FUCK CAN I THREATEN ANYONE? WHAT POWERS DO I HAVE TO DO THAT EXACTLY?

Saying "You had better do this" to try to force someone to do something is a threat, because you are implying that something bad will happen if they don't do what you say. Whether or not you have the power to carry out the threat is irrelevant, it's still a threat.

Umbrage, please reread my reasoning on why the Det/Psy isn't really as helpful as you think it is. I know you're obsessed with the Det/Psy, but his chances of getting a guilty are slim to none, and even if he does there's no way to guarantee it. If we follow your plan and mislynch today, there is at best a 50/50 chance of winning come tomorrow, and that includes assuming the Det/Psy gets a guilty.

Also, I don't know if your caps-lock is stuck on, or if your shift button is broken and your computer thinks it's always being held down or something, but you should probably get a new keyboard or at least get the current one repaired.

[Ythan]

And Umbrage continues to scream the thread full of trash.

[Umbrage]

VOTE: No-Lynch

What the hell. I've pretty much given up on this game as dead anyway. Might as well be a good little townie and cut my own throat.

[Regfan]

Umbrage - If what you're after is the HT claiming today then a lynch would occur. With that said, the HT claiming shouldn't make too much of a difference towards your reads (Except for the read in relation to that person), so I'm going to assume you would want a Krazy/Abelcain lynch if so, can you present a case towars them. Also, what do you make of Abelcains recent posts and suggestion for a no-lynch, town-tell, scum-tell, null-tell?

[Umbrage]

We're no-lynching anyway apparently, so I guess it doesn't matter.

One thing I'd like to get off my chest: I was perfectly civil in suggesting the idea. It's only when I started to see insults and the same old arguments appear that I took it a step up. So don't get all 'UMBRAGE IS ANTITOWN' on me. I'm keeping this game alive, and don't you forget it.

[DarthYoshi]

Something I've been thinking, wanna run it by y'all--

If we no-lynch today and both PRs survive to tomorrow, let's agree on which PR we want to claim first, then have everyone post at least once before the second PR claims, that way scum can only try to claim/CC one PR at a time--that way, even if we mislynch on one PR, we get guaranteed scum the following day, and town makes it to a three-person LyLo.

What say y'all?

And, srsly, let's like, get along. This game has made me all sorts of sad panda.

[Abelcain]

Regardless of how we call it, if there's any counterclaim tomorrow then we are guaranteed to make it to a three-person LyLo, because we have that extra mislynch available and that guarantees us at least one counterclaim verification. I was thinking more along the lines of just calling for a massclaim tomorrow to force the scum to make a stand on if they're going to counterclaim or not. Still, if everyone decides they like Darth's idea better, I don't have any objections.

[DarthYoshi]

@AC: Massclaim would accomplish that, too. The reason I suggested this was so that we didn't get CC's for both PRs simultaneously, as this game seems to have a tendency to get paralyzed easily.

[implosion]

Vote count 2.3 (nothing changed, I think):

Krazy - 0
Umbrage - 1 (Ythan)
Ythan - 1 (Krazy)
Regfan - 0
Snake Eyes - 0
Vordark - 0
Abelcain - 1 (DarthYoshi)
DarthYoshi - 1 (Vordark)
No lynch - 3 (Snake Eyes, Regfan, Umbrage) (

NL-1

)
Not voting: Abelcain.

With 8 alive, 5 votes are required to lynch or 4 votes are required to no lynch.

Prods: Krazy, and Snake Eyes since I apparently failed to actually send his prod before.

[Krazy]

I could have sworn I posted something just the other day... guess not.

Anyway, if no PR dies tonight, hunter tracker claims first. If we get cross-claims on hunter tracker, then Det/Psy doesn't even out tomorrow because we're lynching between Hunter Tracker claims.

[Regfan]

Krazys approach seems to be optimal - I don't see much more we're going to attain from this day considering all discussion is now becoming about order of claims for tommorow which can be discussed at day-start.

[Ythan]

Announcing intent to hammer no lynch and requesting that he claim.

[Krazy]

Snake Eyes' V/LA like just ended. If he doesn't post by tomorrow, he's probably getting replaced and I guess just hammer the NL then.

[Ythan]

Otherwise his prod countdown will be paused until morning? Best to wait then.

[implosion]

I'll start the search for a replacement for Snake Eyes tomorrow if he hasn't posted. Prodding Vordark.