Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over


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Post Post #100 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:48 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

VP Baltar wrote:@ Kairyuu and DDD

Please see post 93 which immediately followed my blunder of saying it was an 8.33% chance. Well I will just repost the important part for your ease:
VP Baltar wrote:Well I guess we don't know how many scum are in the game, so the odds would go up appropriately.
After making my original post I quickly realized that my math was wrong because it only factored in there being one scum. I have no idea how many there are, but you guys are most likely closer to being correct at 25% than I am. :oops: Guess it is best to think things through before posting.
Not quite, your first post touting a percentage of 8.33% occurs in post 82 @ 7:33; you don't realize your mistake until over ten posts later and after it was questioned at about an hour later when you correct in post 93 @ 8:49.

Why would you assume there was only one scum though without knowledge of the setup? The conventional setup for a mini is 3/12 with some slight variance, but a single scum is out of the ordinary and thus there's little reason why it should be your default assumption.
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Post Post #101 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:08 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Honestly, I wasn't even thinking about the number of scum. I was thinking about you saying a random selection of a person (datadanne)...as in 1 out of 12 (which is actually 11 as corrected by WLC).
DDD wrote:you don't realize your mistake until over ten posts later and after it was questioned at about an hour later when you correct in post 93 @ 8:49.
Yes, Kai did question me where I got my number from, but if you look at the posts I made it is pretty evident I realized myself where my error was coming from. I misinterpreted Kai's question as in 'explain your math' when he was really saying 'there are probably more than one scum'.
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Post Post #102 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:33 am

Post by Datadanne »

Lemme have a sec, I will make a content post now.
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Post Post #103 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:38 am

Post by Datadanne »

You know what?!
Screw this goddamn game.

/Out - Need a replacement.
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Post Post #104 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:19 am

Post by Datadanne »

You know what?!
....****!..

/In. lawl.
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Post Post #105 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:31 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Post something with content or you need to be replaced whether you like it or not.
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Post Post #106 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 8:05 am

Post by Shinnen_no_Me »

I'm starting to believe that DD lynch isn't as bad as I thought...

Any roads, ask for replacement, don't ruin the game.

It's true that a DDD's lynch is not worth in this moment, however, what I wanted with my vote wasn't a quicklynch but a good pressure on him for his unique strategy (which I still think it's very anti-town).
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Post Post #107 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 8:42 am

Post by WeyounsLastClone »

Datadanne, can you please not prove DDD to be right with his plan to lynch you? It'd be a great start to get your top two or three suspects, and reasons why.
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Post Post #108 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:00 am

Post by Nocmen »

ortolan wrote:
Nocmen (41) wrote:I will find people scummy for trying to prolong random stage. I will suspect you if you start screwing around and getting us off topic.
This is lacking. At the point where someone actually becomes clearly evasive of questions or is active lurking/clearly not participating it should be obvious to most if not all. You telling us this is nothing new and in fact looks like you're trying to give yourself pre-emptive justification for pouncing on the smallest transgression people may make.
It may be lacking, but did I take advantage of that? Did I make arguments for that? I was mostly saying it to mention the reason why people could suspect Datadanne for the posts he made. I have a playstyle where I'm going to be pretty damn open. I'm not afraid to say what I see scummy, and why, regardless if I vote for them then or not.
ortolan wrote:
Nocmen (41) wrote:I will not give up a hunch I have because someone trys to get us talking about something else, like the way Chief wants us to talk about Datadanne.
I'm very curious at the connections that seem to be forming, especially centered around Chief.
What's wrong with talking about Datadynne, especially when she was defending him? What exactly piques your curiosity about these "connections" surrounding Chief?
When I see someone going "hey guys lets talk about *topic/person*", I have a instinct to interpret it as a connection between two players, like I did. A connection like trying to force a bussing of a partner to look innocent, or trying to divert attention away from a partner who is starting to look guilty.

And once again Datadanne continues with his random posting, adding nothing of interest to help us out.

VP's possible slip - I don't know, I'm kind of intrigued by this a bit. If you look at the flavor, it mentions a Joker and a Puppeteer going after each other. To me, I could see them both as possible anti-town factions. I think that VP has a good chance of being one of these, and knows something much more than the rest of us.
Unvote, Vote: VP Baltar
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Post Post #109 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:11 am

Post by lixyl »

Unvote: Chief
Vote: DDD


After reading over the pages of discussion (Which I haven't been able to participate in, sorry, school has been giving me hell in the past 2 weeks), my current vote stands as such for now.
"An eye for eye only ends up making the whole world blind."
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Post Post #110 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:19 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@DDD:
Anyways, it’s a touch sad that Kairyuu spent presumably all that time putting together than massive all of text after I already conceded the argument. But considering all the grief he’s given me it’s not all that sad.
It's ok. You can let the tears flow. I don't mind. You don't have to hide your sorrow. :P
Furthermore, I dislike the whole arguments about mafia not being a game of numbers when it clearly can be. Just because you prefer the psychological bent of the game, doesn’t invalidate the numerical/logical style, but all of that is neither here nor there.
I propose we move this to MD after the game is over. Agreed?
If I was scum I see two basic explanations for my actions: one, there are multiple scum and I was bussing a partner in crime. This of course means that I was basically trying to hand over a massive advantage on day one when it simply wouldn’t have been necessary. Considering my ill-fated argument revolved around increasing a first day lynch percentage, it doesn’t quite fit that I’d simply hand away a ~15% advantage for no reason. Second, if I was scum I’d be trying to lynch a townie, but as everyone noted if the plan had occurred and datadanne had flipped town then my ass would’ve been in the fire even more than it was. Neither course of action makes real great sense as scum.
This could very well be the exact type of spotlight WIFOM that Artem snowed me with in C9++ (mini normal, can't remember what number). You could make this exact argument D2 after getting us to lynch a townie (assuming data town) and it would apply just as much as it does now.
Even disregarding the motives, simply posting such an argument runs contrary to how I understand to and attempt to best play scum, I even acknowledged in post 50 that I was expecting to draw questions and flak. There’s no reason for scum to do something as blatant as that when I could’ve sat back and picked an easy target for easy reasons instead of making life that hard on myself. All in all, the post doesn’t make sense from the perspective of scum.
See above, but that isn't to say I don't agree with you. Logically speaking your idea is pro-scum in nature with an easy WIFOM defense available to you. I know I wouldn't have a problem drawing flak on myself as scum if I thought I could get away with it. However, statistically you are arguing from solid ground right now. I'll think on it, and I may unvote.
Null-tell, everyone should be jumpy at L-1 to a certain extent and both pro-town players and scum players should generally try to avoid being lynched.
If you are town you should make your argument in your defense and then allow people to decide if they believe you or not. Calling for an unvote before your explanation implies that you are afraid of the position you are/were in. If you are town then I don't see why you shouldn't be confident that you can prove your towniness and avert your lynch. After all, there should be nothing you've done that you can't explain.
It’s also foolish and more than a little anti-town to say definitively that you won’t be unvoting.
Read my wiki. I tend not to move my vote around much. Until I see someone scummier than you it is unlikely that I will shift it. That's just my style.
First off, it makes it seem as if you’re unwilling to hear any further discussion on the matter, which runs contrary to your information valuing meta. Furthermore, if a better target comes along are you stuck still voting me because you don’t want to seem a hypocrite or does your vote actually move then and makes you a liar?
Thank you for putting words in my mouth and strawmanning. Please point out where I said I wanted you lynched immediately (cutting of discussion) and also where I said that I will never move my vote, regardless of other developments.

@ortolan:
No but seriously, why did you want that claim so prematurely?
L-1 is not premature. Also, early wagons to claims rarely happen anymore, and of the older games where I've seen them they tend to work well to increase the likelihood of D1 scumlynch. Besides, current meta states that L-1 = claim time. I'll not apologize for calling for it.

Also, explain your reasons for your vote.

@VP:
After making my original post I quickly realized that my math was wrong because it only factored in there being one scum. I have no idea how many there are, but you guys are most likely closer to being correct at 25% than I am. Guess it is best to think things through before posting.
Gotcha. No big deal.

@data:
unvote
and
vote: Datadanne


Post content. Now.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #111 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:25 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Edit, crossposted:
unvote
and
vote: Nocmen


This is a bit of outguessing the mod, but I think you may have just slipped up big time.
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Post Post #112 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:34 am

Post by Nocmen »

Kairyuu wrote:Edit, crossposted:
unvote
and
vote: Nocmen


This is a bit of outguessing the mod, but I think you may have just slipped up big time.
How do you believe I've slipped up? I'm merely going based off of the flavor in the first post as a logical assumption as to how the roles in this game are distributed. The flavor sets up nicely for a single scum group, and I really think that VP slipped up with his own role trying to make odds and then correct them.

I also like the irony of how you say you rarely change your vote, and you move it twice right after saying that.
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Post Post #113 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:47 am

Post by ChiefSkye4 »

ortolan wrote:
ChiefSkye4 (45) wrote:Since Datadanne was the major topic of discussion at the time, I chose that to try and get some feedback on, but I'd love to hear anything from the others, on this current situation involving myself, on Datadanne, on anything. Since only about 4 of us out of 11 are contributing, or saying anything at all, rather, I feel that our viewpoints are limitted, and that we're likely to get stuck in a rut.
What do you think other people are likely to say about Datadanne? Why do you feel the need to prompt general discussion, which is assumed to be required in mafia anyhow?
I'm not quite sure what you mean by your first question, sorry. And as for your second question, I was basically urging passive players to get involved with a direct question. When I was n00b (and I still am a bit lol), I didn't really post or get involved unless asked a question directly. The question was just an attempt to get the post-potatoes off the couch.
ortolan wrote:
ChiefSkye4 (64) wrote:Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."
Wait, what is he on the hook for? Why is he scummy? And why were you defending him earlier? And how is DDD likely to be his scumbuddy if he's defending him?
Datadanne was the main topic of discussion (and candidate for lynch) at that stage in the game. For DDD to suggest just to, essentially, "drop it" is suspicious and is no help to town. As for your last question, you answer this yourself:
ortolan wrote:...possibly busing. If he happens to die and you're [DDD] his scumbuddy you would (had we not taken this into account) look very townie for the rest of the game.
For your question about my previous defense (if you'd like to call it that) of Datadanne, I was initially just putting my two cents in (which included that I didn't think Datadanne was particularly scummy) and that sparked a discussion over my intentions, where I defended my beliefs. In the post that you quoted, I meant for the reader to infer that Datadanne's actions and posts weren't scummy standing on their own, but with DDD's urging us to drop him as a topic of discussion rather entirely, made them look scummier in the light of a possible partnership.

My take on VP's possible slip is this- It's suspicious to a degree, but nothing that's getting my alarm bells going. I wouldn't have even noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. But maybe that's just me being unobservant.

My current take on Datadanne- Wow. Just wow. Useless. Please post something, like, meaningful. Or ask for a replacement. Nao. Lol.

Unvote
. For now, anyway.
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Post Post #114 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:48 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Nocmen:
How do you believe I've slipped up?
You're speculating about what the scum are, which means you have a different win con than I do, because mine specifies where in the theme the scum fit.
The flavor sets up nicely for a single scum group, and I really think that VP slipped up with his own role trying to make odds and then correct them.
I agree about the single scumgroup (more role info) but VP's mistake looks if anything like a SK who accidentally assumed he was the only scum. However, role info still points to a single scum faction.
I also like the irony of how you say you rarely change your vote, and you move it twice right after saying that.

Yeah. Can't argue there. I couldn't just ignore such a major slip though, now could I?
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Post Post #115 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by SilverPhoenix »

The Fourth Votecount

ChiefSkye4 ~ 0
Shanba ~ 1
(WeyounsLastClone)

Debonair Danny DiPietro ~ 3
(Shanba, Shinnen_no_Me, lixyl)

Kairyuu ~ 1
(ortolan)

lixyl ~ 0
Nocmen ~ 1
(Kairyuu)

ortolan ~ 0
Shinnen_no_Me ~ 1
(TCold)

TCold ~ 0
VP Baltar ~ 1
(Nocmen)

WeyounsLastClone ~ 0
Not Voting ~
(VP Baltar, Debonair Danny DiPietro, ChiefSkye4)


With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

TCold has not yet picked up his prod. Everyone else has posted since then.
Last edited by SilverPhoenix on Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #116 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:19 pm

Post by Shinnen_no_Me »

lixyl wrote:
Unvote: Chief
Vote: DDD


After reading over the pages of discussion (Which I haven't been able to participate in, sorry, school has been giving me hell in the past 2 weeks), my current vote stands as such for now.
Care to elaborate a reason behind your vote? It seems as if you just were jumping on a wagon.
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Post Post #117 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:44 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Shinnen_no_Me wrote:
lixyl wrote:
Unvote: Chief
Vote: DDD


After reading over the pages of discussion (Which I haven't been able to participate in, sorry, school has been giving me hell in the past 2 weeks), my current vote stands as such for now.
Care to elaborate a reason behind your vote? It seems as if you just were jumping on a wagon.
Agreed. For someone who has contributed nothing to this game, you certainly drop your vote on a convenient wagon.
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Post Post #118 (ISO) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:17 pm

Post by Nocmen »

Kairyuu wrote:@Nocmen:
How do you believe I've slipped up?
You're speculating about what the scum are, which means you have a different win con than I do, because mine specifies where in the theme the scum fit.
The flavor sets up nicely for a single scum group, and I really think that VP slipped up with his own role trying to make odds and then correct them.
I agree about the single scumgroup (more role info) but VP's mistake looks if anything like a SK who accidentally assumed he was the only scum. However, role info still points to a single scum faction.
I also like the irony of how you say you rarely change your vote, and you move it twice right after saying that.

Yeah. Can't argue there. I couldn't just ignore such a major slip though, now could I?
So wait...you're using role info...to go after me, beause you think I slipped talking about someone else slipping up?

I don't even know what to say.
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Post Post #119 (ISO) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:13 am

Post by ortolan »

WeyounsLastClone (99) wrote:To answer questions on my vision on double posting: I don’t think double posting on its own is a scumtell. I do think however that scum is more likely to double post than town. Scum can only pretend to be town, so they think by themselves ‘am I acting like a townie?’, which makes them go back to their posts and possibly adjust themselves.
I disagree strongly with this.
WeyounsLastClone (99) wrote: Also, when the multiple posts are kind of erratic and in different directions, it might point to scum who’s just trying to point out as much as possible so something sticks.
A stronger argument but I'm still skeptical of it having much/any worth.
Kairyuu (110) wrote:L-1 is not premature. Also, early wagons to claims rarely happen anymore, and of the older games where I've seen them they tend to work well to increase the likelihood of D1 scumlynch. Besides, current meta states that L-1 = claim time. I'll not apologize for calling for it.
It was clear there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him at that point in time, and if there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him, then there was zero legitimate reason for asking him to claim.
ChiefSkye4 (113) wrote:For your question about my previous defense (if you'd like to call it that) of Datadanne, I was initially just putting my two cents in (which included that I didn't think Datadanne was particularly scummy) and that sparked a discussion over my intentions, where I defended my beliefs. In the post that you quoted, I meant for the reader to infer that Datadanne's actions and posts weren't scummy standing on their own, but with DDD's urging us to drop him as a topic of discussion rather entirely, made them look scummier in the light of a possible partnership.
Ok.
CS4 (113) wrote:My take on VP's possible slip is this- It's suspicious to a degree, but nothing that's getting my alarm bells going. I wouldn't have even noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. But maybe that's just me being unobservant.
What slip?
CS4 (113) wrote:My current take on Datadanne- Wow. Just wow. Useless. Please post something, like, meaningful. Or ask for a replacement. Nao. Lol.
Agreed 110%
Kairyuu (111) wrote:This is a bit of outguessing the mod, but I think you may have just slipped up big time.
Unvote
Vote: Nocmen
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Post Post #120 (ISO) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:06 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Kairyuu wrote:
Furthermore, I dislike the whole arguments about mafia not being a game of numbers when it clearly can be. Just because you prefer the psychological bent of the game, doesn’t invalidate the numerical/logical style, but all of that is neither here nor there.
I propose we move this to MD after the game is over. Agreed?
There's an older thread entitled "Mafia is primarily a game of..." which covers much of this ground, though my viewpoint is a minority one in the poll. If you still want to run an actual experiment, I'd be willing to run the statistics if we designed it properly.
If you are town you should make your argument in your defense and then allow people to decide if they believe you or not. Calling for an unvote before your explanation implies that you are afraid of the position you are/were in. If you are town then I don't see why you shouldn't be confident that you can prove your towniness and avert your lynch. After all, there should be nothing you've done that you can't explain.
And I didn't call for everyone to unvote, just a single unvote so that if someone like lixyl did exactly what they did that I wouldn't be quick-lynched which would hurt the town. My jumpiness wasn't due to weakness of my arguments, but because of my general distrust of everyone else.
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Post Post #121 (ISO) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:08 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

ortolan wrote:
CS4 (113) wrote:My take on VP's possible slip is this- It's suspicious to a degree, but nothing that's getting my alarm bells going. I wouldn't have even noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. But maybe that's just me being unobservant.
What slip?
VP calculated the odds of lynching scum at 8.33% when usually scum represent around 25% of players in a standard mini game. It makes it appear that he has information that there's only one scum in the game instead of multiple scum, as is common.
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Post Post #122 (ISO) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:16 am

Post by VP Baltar »

So you utterly reject a math error in calculating your "random" theory as a possibility?
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Post Post #123 (ISO) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:38 am

Post by Datadanne »

/Out - Need a replacement.
Noted. ~SP
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Post Post #124 (ISO) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:41 am

Post by WeyounsLastClone »

DDD, do you think if there would be only one scum he/she would slip up with posting the actual number of scum (in this case a percentage)? Could be but I highly doubt it, as well as I doubt there'd be only one scum. Sure there people on their own against town, but there'd definately be multiples of them then.

@Kairyuu: who is 'Current Meta', and are you let him join this game? J/k I find 'meta' a bit vague and disturbing, and I don't think anyone should use it. Too much excuses can be made when using 'meta' as an argument. I don't think good scum would bound themselves by it.

I would rather like to see more people pressure Datadanne. Perhaps if he could be put at L-3 or L-2 he would either start to talk, or would be pissed and ask for a replacement, either which is good for the game. So I'll leave my vote where it is now, and hope more people follow. Otherwise I'd change my vote to lixyl, who posts one sentence conveniently joining the most common bandwagon at that moment.
"I wish you hadn't done that."

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